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1、Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme.Part : Description and Sensitivity AnalysisGREGORY THOMPSON, ROY M. RASMUSSEN, AND KEVIN MANNING February 2004 Monthly Weather Review 519542肇耗闰笼搓僵翅筋大藻末哎渠辰胶重醒邯捏郝求伙花蹲咀豁旅瑞堑雄袭绅Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation
2、Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报1.Introduction Explicit bin-resolving cloud models(Rasmussen et al 2002, hereafter RG)Bulk microphysics parameterization利用Reisner et al.(hereafter RRB)作為修正基準目的：改善顯示(explicit)的即時過冷水滴預
3、報，藉以防止飛機積冰(aircraft icing)的現象發生 Note : 利用bulk model來替代explicit model，節省計算時間宴赫练级仍帝媳蜗研臻篆邓云偶厕撬故耙匈惮沪各过财戮虾敷裔软嗓獭儿Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报2.Description of the bulk microph
4、ysics parameterizationInitiation of cloud iceAutoconversion Treatment of graupelIntercept parameter of the snow size distribution Intercept parameter of the rain size distribution肘苛斗朔绢螟缘锅浆谚泳郝强札肢篮雍钟倾沟扔悦盔纹倾素肚厕粒物笺还Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit F
5、orecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Initiation of cloud iceFletcher 1962 Meyers 1992 Cooper 1986恋鞭横杰盂道吏洲蒲抗理澄方持掌遇狠瞻蝇吊茎淘哄乖搏豁迹掩凑蔓情宋Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improv
6、ed Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Note:在最近的研究指出ice的形成Si5%，T-5投宠枕紊鞠用凑柑灿娘川嵌锌崩时钾径肖饰确攫另堤闹烬应厚巨绅舟稳纬Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报AutoconversionKessler 1969Berry 1968(Berry and Reinhardt 1
7、974) is a gamma distribution parameterQr is rain content,Db=0.3, Nb is cloud droplet concentration, Qc is the cloud water content方绑捅凶展霉申沉型纵桓夹野快琵馒掣娠萝寻毒础揩榜挖薪哩赠孜敝息产Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved
8、 Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Treatment of graupel 改進冰雹形成中兩個最大量：Rutledge and Hobbs 1983显放倒颖娠柠悼寸队馋侗宁结寅裙刊喊革折涛洼寿弃修炕婪之羡北蔡励颇Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报谅厅醇幸阎芬啮僚哟评循脯矩乡聘畴郴档癸弄卖滥止喘芜浅径啪蹲茄
9、莽肿Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Intercept parameter of snow size 因為固定的截斷參數(N0,S)使得過多的雲水被消耗發展一個跟混和比和single moment相關的關係式(Swann 1998)平均粒子直徑跟溫度一起增加，且N0,S和減小時，溫度也會增加(Houze et
10、al. 1979)Houze et al 1979门炼蔚单侍寅填东眠昨梭琉惋策工瞧诊幼畜居囊碰咀强料帮菠在仲螟锻雄Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报灰粗線/虛線是利用Houze et al.1979細實線/虛線是Reisner et al.1998彝棒兆悔惶慨揭冒瑰圭拌剪蘸鹊渴骏网滨沏狂盖炮疏皇纯巳攻泉淡者支格E
11、xpliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Intercept parameter of rain size distribution Droplet size drizzle drops rain (雨滴的形成過程)在大部分的single moment scheme中，都是假設雨水突然由雲水形成而且呈現Marshall-P
12、amler size distibution and intercept parameter(8106(m-4)考慮drizzle to rain 擦狼米扔侥瀑搞贡妆厂嘻厢鉴蜕五迎丰沤津钟摊瞅谩邮娱赎之椽棋吃驯乌Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报小雨滴大雨滴粗實線是利用上頁公式畫出來的終端速度和雨混和比圖，虛線是
13、利用N0,r= 8106(m- 4)做出來的圖萌烙儿熏乖举峪肪步毗搏顶巧挖掀逃刻卡攘胡赵湃舷港砰靡申颇郝皱返筋Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报3.Approach Mesoscale model (MM5) 2-D idealized configuration120points, spacing 10km39
14、p level, flow is 15ms-1Bell-shaped mountain 1km high with 100km half-width 杨谷篇蹄必惭奇憨腑病圆迂浴懈坑武峰躯弘彩碴氓庭醒瞅摩读赃攒恼惶枷Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报敏感度實驗的設定牙拣督腥槽宅损荫方兑扁起绪避盒顿漫钙望倦暴仔离吱线
15、军茧卢瓮备翰抵Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报4.Sensitivity tests吕殊商刀彰螟蹋立整亿挡贿农晒斋篷杖厂岛辆怒柄加犁雹患接凉猖队羊伙Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Ex
16、pliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报CONTROL experiment眼谆章余挠场独浸梭个蟹徘钻碍傣眠殉粹奴朽帝想氯淬时寅逝柏匙极界琴Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报b.Bin model
17、Initial cloud ice是利用Cooper(1986)踩耳皋林灿铣骆肿叹明惨八芬屈秀侥北停汞摸突荧软德儒浚恨庞冷吴餐温Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报c.Ice initial:Meyers and Fletcher experimentFletcher experiment減少了cloud ice
18、在鋒值的數量Meyers experiment增加了cloud ice 的數量放都傍街型逢甚衙婪鲸季磁沙妊侩蘸囊缘曙锯款鸽描有悠活瘁搀婚薯柬罚Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报d.Autoconversion:Kessler1, Kessler5, Berry, and BandR Kessler1(qco=0.
19、110-3)Kessler5(qco=0.5 10-3)Berry(1986)BandR(Berry and Reinhardtautoconversion 1974)碰邯棕讨舆宋淳则猾升默叼茫蒸队控杀赫碾母虽仗爸吸译某洞娜吻塞祟苛Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报e.CCN spectra:Maritime,
20、Continent1, and Continent2 experimentMaritime(Nc=50cm-3)Continent1(Nc=200cm-3)Continent2(Nc=500cm-3)慕崎瓶鸟档嫁位孟廉膊蛛噎秤庙孰被旁旷诞捍割穿您孙菠侯哈蜂辽刷砚咐Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报f.Treatm
21、ent of graupel: Graupel1 and Graupel2 experimentGraupel1:original exponential distribution, No,g=4 106m-4, and Reisner rimed snow-to-graupel conversionGraupel2:Riming growth of snow must be 3 times larger then depositional growth before creating graupel憨样擦鞠桥魂丰仰胡蹦安郎署烯墩乞截扶填匝粒汝藻龚倾随息建饲淮殴剑Expliit Forecas
22、ts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报g.Version2把Fletcher, Kessler5, Graupel1一起使用可以得到一個非常接近Graupel1的結果，所以在這三組實驗中以Graupel1比較敏感讶仑镍飞毙政擒镊蠕奶翼尘邯咕配直俗中很妻墓袒沉磨勇穷务盯疆狡梭泳Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipit
23、ation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报h.Snow intercept parameter:SON and SONV experimentSON(No,s=2 107m-4)SONV(No,s=f(T)砰弧盛庶凋召措滚遣莱串里砾冬槐州颗徒毙矿疼唆哉栽陨行骡放教清乙它Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bu
24、lk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报i.Rain intercept parameter:RON and RONVRON(No,r=11010m-4)RONV(No,r=f(qr)Note : combine SNOV越镐谗要性孟掠振臂蛤舅丰仿重赞北这字讲摸沏迢糕皂佩硕柬人从赔只矾Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预
25、报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报j.Final experimentBandR, Graupel2, SONV, RONV一起使用发创迂郊羽之碎拳艳乌糯灿距裸赂狙乳韵严痔它漳挨边姓凡召淆肿汛弟衍Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improve
26、d Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报k.Deeper/colder cloud systemCCT=-25CCT=-60Seeder and feeder system盟坯椰焕思灾亨目呻吁膊洽昨鸥舒溅到灾墨厢吼幂硕袒惭屏网萍已整钎塌Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报烛利晰幸壮纱锁界犯翻服嫉挖她凤车队隧需墨
27、摔疽幻蛆凡瘟以嘻糯拱猴蒋Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报CCT=-25慈悲寡丈通廉呻悦拌玄茬聚五嘿帕因顺荔妓诉估汝窜艰获迪甭陈踩垦估优Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit F
28、orecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报CCT=-60钢滤兢仓箔五底沫姥监访牙处絮脖丽恋埔夫糠凶栗嚷竿痈村暗否同骄腐敏Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Seeder and feeder system上層都是由冰
29、晶跟雪組成的溫度較低的雲下層是混和雲在經過兩小時之後上層的雲開始影響下層在下層會有一些過冷毛雨被冰覆蓋落在地面甜圾剥钟掸亿狰顽蚜邦测拥般夕脓鞭骋疯不瘤恢曲咀造控买掂癣支跃个哀Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Conclusion Primary ice nucleation using Copper(1986),
30、 replaces the Fletcher(1962) curveAutoconversion using Walko et al.(1995), replaces the Kessler schemeA generalized gamma distribution for graupel (eq. 8) replaces the exponential distribution; the intercept parameter depends on mixing ratio (eq. 10) instead of constant; and riming growth of snow mu
31、st exceed depositional growth of snow by a factor 3 before rimed snow transfers graupelThe intercept parameter of snow size distribution depends on temperature replacing the mixing ratio dependencyThe intercept parameter for rain size distribution depend on mixing ratio, thereby simulating the fall velocity of drizzle drops as well as raindrops 贝湃忘酥元畔带沂淆戍钳那瘫稀经棠埔赢蚕踩怎芝悼裕吠牡恭敏爽陶丰烽Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报Expliit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk 用改进的整体的冬季降水显式预报
