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1、点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘版本版本: 1.00日期日期: May 20196 6西格玛绿带培训教材西格玛绿带培训教材ONEONE-6-4-20246标准偏差标准偏差标准偏差标准偏差1点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元
2、元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘DAY1 第一天(定义阶段):- 6西格玛及精简优化与COQ(質量成本的关系 COQ的脑力风暴- First Pass Yield Exercise II初始直通率的練習 IPO輸入輸出流程and flow diagramIPO和流程圖）Flow analysis of dropping cards onto targetRepeating the exercise重復練習Results and discussions結論和檢討- 西格玛培训中的某些质量改进工具 脑力风暴技术 第一天結束 wrap up通過以上
3、的教學引導學員對品質成本的認識運用六西格瑪就是有效的降低品質成本課程安排2点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘DAY2 第二天(Variance Reduction降低变差的理解):- The power of Plato chart and the 80/20 rules柏拉圖表的功能和80/20的規則 Construction of a Plato Chart us
4、ing computer flow diagram and its associated symbols流程圖和其制作符號含義 Two 实例of flow diagram (using a common scenario)兩個流程圖的實例使用通用的情節） Barriers that hinder 6西格玛implementation阻礙開展執行六西格瑪的因素-Break- What is FMEA 什么是FMEA Example of FMEA關于FMEA的實例 Group exercise on FMEA of barriers to 6西格玛implementation FMEA pres
5、entations關于FMEA的介紹-Lunch- Concept of precision and accuracy對准確和准確的理解Cp和Ca） How does it link to the mean and 标准偏差如何將平均值和標准偏差聯系起來） Precision and accuracy example (i.e. Selection of fund manager准確和精確的實際例子Catapult exercise I彈弓拋物發射器的思維練習一-Break- Introducing concept of variance reduction (i.e. PF/CE/CNX/F
6、MEA/SOP)介紹降低變差的觀念Variance reduction 脑力风暴exercise for Catapult用彈弓發射器進行降低變差的腦力風暴練習Catapult exercise II彈弓拋物發射器思維練習二 Computation of Catapult exercise result after variance reduction評估計算彈弓發射器游戲中的數據來了解降低變差的含義 Discussion of variance contributors討論降低變差的意義第二天wrap up 在以上學習中通過彈弓發射器游戲的了解在游戲中掌握了解在六西格瑪中(Variance
7、Reduction降低变差重要性3点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘DAY 3 (Measure Phase測量階段): Recap of statistical terminology全新的統計學朮語 Histogram and a normal data對直方圖和常態數據的理解 Construction of histogram對直方圖的解釋 Transforma
8、tion of data數據的轉換 Calculate Cp, Cpk from non-normal data計算非正態數據的Cp, Cpk -Break- The importance of good measurement正確的測量方法的重要性 Direct 和indirect measurement (i.e. Introduction to scatter diagram) Risk of wrong interpretation錯誤解釋的風險- Under and variance concept in measurement system在變異范圍內的測量系統的觀念- Intro
9、duction to Gauge repeatability and reproducibility (GR&R)介紹GR&R-Lunch- GR&R example 對GR&R的計算的例子 Calculation of measurement variance測量變異的計算 Rules of thumb in GR&R閱讀GR&R 規則手冊 Calculation of GR&R using computer使用電腦計算GR&R -Break- Interpretation graphical of GR&R解釋GR&R的繪制 Balls circumference measurement
10、exercise測量園球周長的游戲 Result and discussion on measurement exercise以上測量結果和方法的練習 The ANOVA(analysis of variance) method of GR&R對GR&R的方差計算方法 Day 3 wrap up 以上的培訓使學員開始接觸品質分析工具4点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘
11、DAY 4 (Measure + Analyze Phase測量分析階段): Introduction to GR&R analysis on attribute data介紹GR&R 的數據 Example of attribute data GR&R （GR&R 的實際例子） Attribute GR&R exercise （GR&R的練習） Result and discussion on exercise(練習計算和討論）-Break- Computing attribute data GR&R using the computer使用電腦計算GR&R 的數據 what variabl
12、e data is better than attribute data為什么變差數據比品質數據好 Converting attribute data to variable data將品質數據轉化成變差數據 Example of attribute data conversion (i.e. Wu Fans project on reducing bubble defect)數據運算的實際例子 Introduction to probability theory介紹概率原理-Lunch- Probability approach (classical, relative frequency)
13、概率統計的步驟古典方式相關頻率） Probability rules概率規則 Probabilities under statistical independence (Marginal, Joint, Conditional) Exercise練習-Break- Probability under conditions of statistical dependence概率條件下的統計學原理 Exercise練習 Introduction to probability distributions介紹概率分配 Day 4 wrap up 本天是學員掌握基本的統計原理5点同职场助手频道点同职场助
14、手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘DAY 5 (Analyze Phase分析階段): What is a binomial distribution ?什么是二次項分配 Conditions for the use of the Bernoulli trials (流程) Graphical illustration of a binomial distribution二項次分配繪制的說明
15、Measures of central tendency and dispersion for binomial distribution 二項次分配的集中趨勢和離散趨勢的測量 Probability calculation with binomial distribution用二項次分配計算概率 Binomial distribution case studies二項次分配的案例學習 Characteristics of the Poisson distribution泊松分配的特點 Probability calculation using Poisson distribution用泊松分
16、配的概率計算 Poisson distribution as an approximation of binomial distribution 泊松分配是一個比較接近二次項分配的-Break- Poisson distribution case studies泊松分配案例的學習 Introduction to normal distribution介紹正態分配 Characteristics of normal distribution典型的正態分配 Areas under the normal curve正態曲線內部的區域面積的理解 The use of normal probabilit
17、y distribution table使用概率分配表 Probability calculation using normal distribution利用正態分配計算概率 Normal distribution case studies正態分配案例的學習 Using computer to calculate probability of different distribution 利用電腦計算不同性質的概率分配-Lunch-6点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，
18、VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘DAY 5 (Analyze Phase分析階段): Random sampling: Basis of statistical inference隨意抽樣統計推理的基礎 Introduction to sampling distributions介紹取樣分類 Concept of standard error and sampling from normal populationProbability of the sample mean樣品平均數的概率 Central limit theo
19、rem中心極限定理 Exercise to demonstrate central limit theorem中心極限定律的練習 Result and discussion結論和檢討-Break- Confined interval and population mean estimation信賴區間和 Continuous data集中趨勢的數據 Discrete data 離散趨勢的數據 Determining sample size決定樣本大小 Continuous data集中趨勢的數據 Discrete data 離散趨勢的數據 Finite and infinite populat
20、ion and the associated impact to the confidence interval Exercise on confidence interval信賴區間的練習 Day 5 和week 1 wrap up課程安排7点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Asia 6Asia 6西格玛西格玛西格玛西格玛VisionVision亞洲六西格瑪進行的遠
21、景亞洲六西格瑪進行的遠景亞洲六西格瑪進行的遠景亞洲六西格瑪進行的遠景 Our Mission 我們的任務我們的任務To drive operational excellence through the deploy of 6西格玛西格玛initiatives in optimal-electronics Asia sites.開展六西格瑪是通往卓越的亞洲最佳電子行業的道路開展六西格瑪是通往卓越的亞洲最佳電子行業的道路GOAL目标目标 1) To consolidate Asia effort in 流程改进流程改进through 6西格玛西格玛initiative.2) To share be
22、st practices across Perkinelmer Asia Sites.3) To entrench 6西格玛西格玛culture in optimal electronics Asia sites, 和和make it the way of life for our people.8点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Course Course 目的目的
23、目的目的Explain 和motivate others in the 6西格玛哲学Underst和characterize the 6西格玛组织支持结构Describe 和explain the role of 6西格玛黑带, champion 和绿带.Certification 流程in Asia 6西格玛deploymentHow does 6西格玛drive 产品ivity 质量 deployment Perkinelmer 6西格玛implementation strategyUnderst和the importance of motivating others to inculca
24、te 6西格玛culture9点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What is 6SIGMA?What is 6SIGMA?什么是六西格瑪什么是六西格瑪什么是六西格瑪什么是六西格瑪Vision 和哲学和哲学:Develop BETTER, FASTER, 和和LOWER COST 产品产品 和和services - aggressively attack the co
25、st of 质量质量 (COQ), leading to higher customer satisfaction 和和retentionPrimary Focus:Eliminates variation in all business 流程流程es to reduce costs 和和increase customer satisfaction Definition:A 方法方法 to identify 和和minimize variation in a 流程流程, resulting in 3.44 PPM defectiveA Vision,A 哲学哲学一個方法一個方法,一個改进工具一
26、個改进工具工具工具一個基准一個基准一個標准一個標准What is 6SIGMAWhat is 6SIGMA10点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Ways to create business, operation 和technology breakthrough in meeting goals associated with doing things better,
27、 faster , lower cost in all 产品和services6西格玛develop people towards 世界级别优秀culture in company for competitive advantagesMost powerful breakthrough management 工具Drastically improve bottom lineMinimize waste 和increase resources while increasing customer satisfaction 6西格玛can result in increasing market sh
28、are, reduce operation costs 和profit growth.为什么要使用为什么要使用为什么要使用为什么要使用6 6西格玛西格玛西格玛西格玛? ?11点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘1970sJapanese firm took over Motorola TV factory in USA 和reduced 缺陷by 95%!1981Mot
29、orola CEO Bob Galvin challenged company to a 10x 质量改进in 5 years1985Paper on “Defect 和Correct vs. Error Free Assembly” by Smith from Motorola1988 Won Malcolm Baldrige award for Total Customer Satisfaction1988 6西格玛Research Institute formed: Implementation strategy-Guidelines-Advanced 工具s6 6西格玛的历史西格玛的历
30、史西格玛的历史西格玛的历史12点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Continuous 改进改进改进Time6西格玛西格玛Breakthrough 方方法法Normal Continuous 改改进进Breakthrough 改进改进改进TimeIncremental 改进改进resulting from a consistent series of many, sma
31、ll 改进改进activities Quantum Leap 改进改进driven from a one-time, 10 times 改进改进 使用六西格瑪的巨大突破使用六西格瑪的巨大突破使用六西格瑪的巨大突破使用六西格瑪的巨大突破13点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘通过通过6西格玛获利的实例西格玛获利的实例交付世界级别优秀质量的产品降低业务活动中的缺陷缺陷和cy
32、cle time主打产品和流程知识提供系统的工具和技术Create opportunity for business growth 和increase profitabilityCreating a learning 组织by building teamwork , sharing of success ideas, best practice Improve communication 和teamwork14点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/
33、/盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘流程改进流程改进产品和服务改进产品和服务改进投资商关系投资商关系设计方法设计方法供应商改进供应商改进培训和招聘培训和招聘作出决定的流程作出决定的流程6 6西格玛对公司产生的价值西格玛对公司产生的价值西格玛对公司产生的价值西格玛对公司产生的价值Management Leadership in 6Management Leadership in 6西格玛西格玛西格玛西格玛Communicating 6西格玛西格玛visionTake ownership to be a change agent提供支持和提供支持和reso
34、urcesRemove barriers to successVisible 和和Top Down Commitment in 6西格玛西格玛DeploymentEstablish a 6西格玛西格玛Leadership teams15点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘绿带绿带- A part-time person who undertakes projects o
35、f lesser scope than a 黑带黑带 project. 黑带黑带 - A full-time person who leads critical projects.Master 黑带黑带 - Mentor to Black/绿带绿带s. Champion盟主盟主 - Sponsor of a project.Roles in 6 Sigma DeployRoles in 6 Sigma Deploy開展六六西格瑪的角色開展六六西格瑪的角色開展六六西格瑪的角色開展六六西格瑪的角色16点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量
36、资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘開展六西格瑪的方法和流程開展六西格瑪的方法和流程 ApplyReviewTrain培训is Conducted by Master 黑带sPlanProject Selection 流程is Managed by ChampionsProjects企化MEASURE (M)IMPROVE (I)ANALYZE (A)CONTROL (C)Dollars SavedPROBLEMDEFINE (D)17点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频
37、道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Linking to the Goal Deploy Matrix目標開展矩陣圖目標開展矩陣圖18点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Ma
38、nagement Roles in 6Management Roles in 6西格玛西格玛西格玛西格玛Identifying key business areas where breakthrough is neededIdentifying area with the highest saving Identify the right 6西格玛candidates in accordance to selection criteria提供支持of resources to train 和equip people to attain stretch goals Set measurement
39、 matrix 和track progressRecognition 和reward successCreate opportunity 和channel to propagate success stories to generate culture change 19点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘6 6西格玛西格玛西格玛西格玛Leadership TeamLe
40、adership TeamTrained in 6西格玛Develop a 6西格玛Deployment PlanWork with management to identify right 6西格玛candidatesDevelop a Focused Schedule 培训Serve as mentors for candidatesCertify 6西格玛CandidatesIdentify MentorsMonitor project selection 和progressWork with management sponsors on reward system 和propagati
41、ng successDevelop a 6西格玛Network to enhance communicationReview 和Improve 6西格玛流程20点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘黑带黑带黑带黑带 Roles Roles Assist Department to identifying operating 和business issue in this
42、area :Set Stretch Goals, Measure, Improve, Document, TransferLead 和managed 6西格玛ProjectsAct as Breakthrough Strategy expertsLead 和direct team in project executionStimulate Champion thinkingReport progress to appropriate leadership levelsInfluence without direct authorityDetermine the most effective 工
43、具to applyBe a Change AgentMotivate others to set 和accomplish stretch goals with 6西格玛philosophies 和methodologies培训of 绿带s21点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘绿带绿带绿带绿带Roles Roles Focus on Projects that tie
44、directly to their daily workTo help deploy the success of 6西格玛Lead 改进projectsGathering 和analyzing dataExecuting experimentsCapture 和Sustain 6西格玛Gain提供leadership in areas of uses 6西格玛methodologies22点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩D
45、VDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Over View of Leaders Roles Over View of Leaders Roles 23点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘6西格玛西格玛PROJECT MASTER STRATEGYDEFINE ANALYZE MEASUREIMPROVECONTROL1. What 流程es are
46、you responsible for ? Who is the owner of these 流程es ? Who are the team members ? How well does the team work together ? 2. Which 流程es have the highest priority for 改进? How did you come to this conclusion ? Where is the data that supports this conclusion ? 3. How is the 流程performed ?4. What are your
47、 流程performance measures ? 为什么? How accurate 和precise is your measurement system ?5. What are the customer driven specifications for all your performance measures ? How good or bad is the current performance ? Show me the data. What are the 改进goals for the 流程?6. What are all the sources of variabilit
48、y in the 流程? Show me what they are.7. Which sources of variability do you control ? How do you control them 和is it documented ?8. Are any sources of variability 供应商-dependent ? If so, what are they, whos the 供应商和whats being done ?9. What are key variables that affect the average 和variation of the me
49、asures of performance ? How do you know this ? Show me the data.10. What are the 关系hips between the key variables 和流程output ? Do any key variables interact ? How do you know for sure ? Show me the data.11. What setting for the key variables will optimize the measures of performance ? How do you know
50、 this ? Show me the data.12. For the optimal setting of the key variables, what kind of variability exists in the performance measures ? How do you know ? Show me the data.13. How much 改进has the 流程shown in the last 3 months ? How do you know this ? Show me the data.14. How much time and/or money hav
51、e your efforts saved or generated for the company ? How did you document all of your efforts ? Show me the data.24点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Characterize 和和OptimizeDMAICworkwork6s缺陷缺陷are easy to
52、see, but are expensive to fixSustain The GainDetermine business measurement needing 改进改进Identify 产品产品 and/or 流程流程es that impact the targeted business measurementCategorize 缺陷缺陷generated by 产品产品 & 流程流程esDetermine largest opportunity for reducing defects, 和和estimate potential impact on businessGain bu
53、siness approval for 改进改进projectABCDEDefineCharacterize the response Y, look at the raw dataIs it Bimodal? Skewed? Other Clues?Is the problem with mean or sigma?Identify gap between current 和和desired stateDevelop cause 和和effect diagram to list potential XsUse graphical analysis, multi-vari, Anova 和和b
54、asic statistical 工具工具to screen the likely families of variability1234AnalyzeSelect likely Xs for experimentation; set levels on XsUse 设计设计of experiments to find the critical few Xs 和和equation Y=F(X), SY=G(X)Move the distributionShrink the spreadConfirm the results12345ImproveMistake proof the 产品产品or
55、 流程流程Tolerance the 产品产品or 流程流程, Y=F( X)Measure the final capability for YPlace appropriate controls on the critical XsDocument the effort 和和results12345ControlProject ObjectiveDevelop focused problem statement with project teamIdentify the response variable(s) Ys 和和how to measure themAssess the spec
56、ification(s) for defectIs one in place? Is it the right one?Analyze measurement system capability & accuracy1234MeasurePractical ProblemStatistical ProblemStatistical SolutionPractical SolutionStatistical Control25点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5V
57、CD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Stage of 6Stage of 6西格玛西格玛西格玛西格玛Implementation Implementation RecognizeRecognizeKey business issues from the executive viewpointBaseline major 流程流程: FPY, cycle time, ppm, dpuEvaluate customer perceptionsDetermine the cost of 质量质量 (COQ) Customer requireme
58、nt Increase market share , profits margin , expansion , stock price , etc VisionVisionSet customer goalsSet goals for stock price , market share , sales, profiles ,etcSet 6西格玛西格玛goals for dpu , FPY, cycle time ,COQ ,etcSet goal that tied to performanceDefine “世界级别优秀世界级别优秀culture“ in PerkinElmer Depl
59、oyDeployCommunicate vision , plan 和和needTrain all level manager to be champion, 黑带黑带s , 绿带绿带sTrain operator 和和supervisors提供提供resources ,software 和和hardwareApply 方法方法 (DMAIC) Schedule weekly mentor 和和expert meetings26点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD
60、5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Monitor Monitor Quarterly briefing to executives 和和financeSchedule monthly meetings to share ideas , group consulting , 脑力风脑力风暴暴, progress reports, etc.Identify 和和removed barriers Stay focused 和和committed提供提供d consulting on 6西格西格玛工具玛工具through masters F
61、or each project : define , measure , analysis , improve , control 和和review Evaluate Evaluate Evaluate goals 和和timelinesEvaluate business impactEvaluate problematic projectsEvaluate executive level 和和mentor or sponsor supportFinance link the gain to bottom lineRefocus 和和re-commitSustain Sustain Devel
62、op control planCommunicate success - motivate all personnel through executive briefings videos 和和organizational newslettersReward success as plannedMake appraisals reflect performanceSelect new projectsStage of 6Stage of 6西格玛西格玛西格玛西格玛Implementation (cont)Implementation (cont)27点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http
63、:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Goals of the Certification Goals of the Certification 流程流程流程流程: :Develop associates having the following attributes Understanding of 6西格玛工具西格玛工具s Appropriate applications of the 工具工具s Demons
64、trate results using the 工具工具sHave consistence certification criteria 和和judgment6 Sigma Certification 6 Sigma Certification 流程流程流程流程28点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Definition黑带Candidate who are full-
65、time working on 6西格玛projects. Responsible to : Lead the team in effective utilization of 6西格玛方法 Select, teach 和use the most effective 工具s Oversee data collection 和analysis Complete 2 projects a year绿带 Candidate who is doing 6西格玛projects on a part time basis.Responsible to :Assist the 黑带 Complete 1 p
66、roject a year29点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘流程流程to 6西格玛西格玛GB/BB certificationPhase 1; Project / Candidate SelectionCandidate SelectionTo fill in ; Characteristics of 6西格玛candidate Score-sheet 和Summ
67、ary Leadership Values Score-sheet 6西格玛Candidates Leadership Values Summary 6西格玛CandidatesProject SelectionTo fill in ; 6西格玛Project Selection Summary Ease of Implementation Assessment ROI Impact AssessmentCandidates must score greater than 2.5 pts for each to qualifyCandidates must score at least 0.9
68、 pts in the in the 6西西格玛格玛Project Selection Summary to qualify6西格玛西格玛Project SummaryMatching right project to the right people30点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Phase 2; 6西格玛培训和application of 6西格玛工具sCo
69、llect Baseline Data on Project yield COQ Cost Cycle Time Inventory levelTo fill in ; 6西格玛R0 Project Review Sheet 6西格玛COQ Template 6西格玛Project Progress Report To get all relevant parties approval signatoriesAttend 6西格西格玛玛GB/BB Academic 培训培训Application of 6西格玛工西格玛工具具to Project(s)PF/CE/CNX/SOPs FMEA MS
70、A PARETO PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ANOVA DOE STATISTICAL INTERVAL SPCCreate Certification Template Follow DMAIC Presentation Summary Rev A , to complete each phase of the project流程流程to 6西格玛西格玛GB/BB certification31点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD
71、5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Phase 3; Certification of CandidateComplete Closure Technical ReportPresentation of 6西格玛西格玛Certification Project(s)Site Assessment of Project(s)Issue Plaque /Certificate Achievement to candidate Update Candidate LOR Career Profile on 培训和Recognition Finance
72、 to verify project savings Champions 和MBB to assess candidate understanding 和application of 6西格玛工具s Candidate Certification Evaluation Form流程流程to 6西格玛西格玛GB/BB certification Finance to verify project savings Champions 和MBB to assess candidate understanding 和application of 6西格玛工具s Candidate Certificat
73、ion Evaluation Form32点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Requirements for Certification Completion of 6西格玛培训西格玛培训course Successful project completion (goal achievement 和和documentation) Demonstration on th
74、e understanding of 6西格玛工具西格玛工具s Effective 和和successful completion of steps to “hold the gain” Completion of each project within 1 yr 绿带绿带Certification; completion of 2 projects with minimum saving of US$25,000 per project 黑带黑带 Certification; completion of 2 projects with minimum saving of US$100,000
75、 per project 交付交付ables for Certification Demonstration of six-sigma though 流程流程 Completion of 6西格玛西格玛R0 Project Review Sheet Completion of 6西格玛西格玛 Project Progress Report Completion of 6西格玛西格玛COQ Template Completion of DMAIC Presentation Summary Completion of Closure Technical Report33点同职场助手频道点同职场助手
76、频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Certification 构造构造 Candidate Certification Board Site Leader Champions Master 黑带 Certification Board Review 流程Candidate to distribute the Closure Report Summary to the board at least
77、 one week before the review date (may be waived at the discretion of the site leader)MBB to act as the chair of the boardCandidate to present project details using using thought 流程map with emphasis on how each 工具was appliedQuestions, clarifications 和review by the board34点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http
78、:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Certification 构造构造(cont)Board members to rate candidate using Certification Evaluation FormPass if ;Candidate Technical Assessment is greater than 20 pts for Greenbelt 和greater than 40 pts for Blac
79、kbelt流程Variation 和Measurable Results Evaluation is at least 4 pts for each categoryInform candidate of the outcome 35点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Sample FormsCharacteristics of 6西格玛西格玛CandidatesLea
80、dership Values Score-sheet36点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Sample Forms; Leadership Values Summary37点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘
81、，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Sample Form; Closure Technical Report38点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Sample Form; Candidate Certification Evaluation Form39点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)ht
82、tp:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Definition of a Definition of a 流程流程流程流程A A 流程流程流程流程is an activity which utilize inputs from external source is an activity which utilize inputs from external source 和和和和transform them into desired output(s).tr
83、ansform them into desired output(s).Example:Manufacturing 流程es(i.e. wire bonding, injection molding, glass sawing)Financial 流程es(i.e. double book keeping, 产品costing)HR 流程es(i.e. recruiting, ranking 和appraisal, 培训)Daily activity(i.e. parking a car, buying lunch, brushing your teeth)40点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道
84、 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘IPO (Input-IPO (Input-流程流程流程流程-Output) Diagram -Output) Diagram PeoplePeopleMaterialMaterialEquipmentEquipmentPoliciesPoliciesProceduresProceduresMethodsMethodsEnvironmentEnvironmentPe
85、rformPerforma servicea serviceProduceProducea a 产品产品产品产品CompleteCompletea taska taskutilizing external utilizing external utilizing external INPUTS to achieve INPUTS to achieve INPUTS to achieve the desired the desired the desired OUTPUT(S)OUTPUT(S)OUTPUT(S)INPUTSINPUTSINPUTS 流程流程流程流程流程流程 OUTPUTS OU
86、TPUTS OUTPUTSA visual representation of a 流程which lists input variables 和output characteristics41点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘PeoplePeople Kids KidsMaterialMaterial Water Water Detergent DetergentE
87、quipmentEquipment Cleaning Cleaning ClothCloth Pail Pail Water hose Water hoseEnvironmentEnvironment raining raining sunny sunnyCleanliness Cleanliness of car of car surfacesurfaceWashing a CarWashing a CarWashing a CarINPUTSINPUTSINPUTS 流程流程流程流程流程流程 OUTPUTS OUTPUTS OUTPUTSWhat is the purpose of IPO
88、What is the purpose of IPOA high level interpretation of a 流程, which enable ease of understanding, through outlining the 关系hips between input variables 和output response(s).42点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起
89、，非刻录光盘What is a distribution ?It is a pattern form by the collection of data, grouping the outcome horizontally (x-axis), 和indicates the observed frequency of the outcome vertically (y-axis).In statistic, this generate a theoretical pattern whereby information of entire population can be obtained fr
90、om observing limited samples.A Normal Distribution2527293133353739414345Response MeasurementFrequency43点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Characteristic of a normal distribution It has a single peak 和和a
91、bell shape curve It is a distribution for continuous data- The mean (average) is is at the center of the curve The variance describe the spreading of dataWage Distribution of Engineering Fresh Graduate2.252.302.352.402.452.502.552.602.652.702.75Response X ( $K )Frequency ( No. of person )Mean, m44点同
92、职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘为什么为什么is distribution important to a 流程流程The output of a 流程流程can most of the time associates with a statistical distribution, giving opportunity for engineer to analyze t
93、he data statistically, hence arriving conclusion with a statistical confidence 和和at a lower cost.Distributions differs in locationDistributions differs in spreadDistributions differs in shapeNormal Distribution-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 01 2 3 4 5 6 - 99.9999999998% - 99.73% - 95.45% -68.27%- 3 variation is
94、called natural tolerance 45点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘流程流程Capability Study流程流程capability potential, CpBased on the assumptions that :Cp= 流程capability potentialCpk= 流程capability indexIt is a measu
95、rement of the capability of a 流程, by indexing the 流程natural tolerance with respect to the device specification (i.e. customer tolerance)1.流程is normalNormal Distribution-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 01 2 3 4 5 6 Lower Spec LimitLSLUpper Spec LimitUSLSpecification Center2.It is a 2-sided specification3.流程mean is
96、centered to the device specificationSpread in specificationNatural toleranceCP =USL - LSL6 8 6 = 1.3346点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘流程流程Capability Index, Cpk1. Based on the assumption that the 流程is
97、 normal2. An index that compare the 流程center with specification centerUSL - Y3 Y - LSL3 Cpk = min ,Normal Distribution-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 01 2 3 4 5 6 Lower Spec LimitLSLUpper Spec LimitUSLSpecification CenterTherefore when ,Cpk Cp ; then 流程is not centeredCpk = Cp ; then 流程is centered47点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频
98、道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Arbitrary sample data of starch content (gram) in 1gram anti-biotic pillWhat is the mean starch content ?What is the variance ?What is the 标准偏差标准偏差 ?What is the 流程流程capability potenti
99、al, Cp ?What is the 流程流程capability index, Cpk ?What can you do to improve the 流程流程?The above activity is a sigma 流程流程.What can you conclude from the below 流程流程?Given:Nominal content = 0.5 gramTolerance = 0.1 gram48点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5V
100、CD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘关系关系hip between 流程流程Capability 和和DPPMCp = Cpk = 1Cp = Cpk = 1.33Cp = Cpk = 1.67Cp = Cpk = 2Cp =1Cpk = 0.5Cp =1.33Cpk = 0.83Cp =1.67Cpk = 1.17Cp =2Cpk = 1.5Long Term流程流程CapabilityShort Term流程流程CapabilityFor a 6 Sigma 流程流程Cp = 2.0Cpk = 1.5DPM = 3.4 49点同职场助
101、手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘First Pass Yield Exercise I Break into team of 9 persons. Each team consist of 1 供应商, 1 supervisor, 3 operators, 3 inspectors 和1 customer. The objective is to 交付20 complete
102、产品 to the customer The task of 供应商is to supply card (i.e. raw material) to the first operator. The task of the operator is to drop the card with edge facing down onto the target area, 和count the number of drop throughout the exercise. The task of the inspector is to verify that the card has drop wit
103、hin the target area If card fall within the target:Pass the card to the next operator (or to the customer for the last inspector)Record down the number of good units that are passed to the next 流程 If card does not fall within the target:Pick up the card 和h和it back to the operator The task of the cus
104、tomer is to receive the 20 cards, 和record the time required (i.e. lead time) At the end of the exercise, the 供应商will count the number of raw material issue to the 流程流程流程1流程流程2流程流程3供应商CustomerInspectorsOperators50点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD
105、5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Computation of 产品产品cost51点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What is Cost of 质量质量 (COQ)It is the total cost incur from the result of poor 质量 of materials, 产品, 流
106、程es, 和the cost of not doing things right at the first time.What are 某些某些of the COQ that you can see at your site ? Scrap, Rework, Cycle Time Warranty, Liability, Service Audits, Inspections, Evaluations 培训without ROI, Consultation Lost of sales, Lost of market share52点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或
107、或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘How does 6 Sigma 和Lean related to COQ ?2 ways the entire business 流程can be improved 和reduce COQ : To lean up the 流程chain 和reduce chances for error To improve the sigma capability of the 流程LeanThrough
108、6 Sigma53点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What are the overall yield for your 流程流程?Double click on table to find outGoing back to the dropping cards exerciseHow can we reduce the 产品产品cost ?What is the
109、main problem that associate to the cost factor ?Knowing the problem, what is the root cause to the problem ?Can changing the way we do thing help to improve the situation ?54点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起
110、，非刻录光盘First Pass Yield Exercise II Break into team of 9 persons. Each team consist of 1 供应商, 1 supervisor, 3 operators, 3 inspectors 和1 customer. The objective is to 交付20 complete 产品 to the customer The task of 供应商is to supply card (i.e. raw material) to the first operator. The task of the operator
111、is to drop the card with the surface facing down onto the target area, 和count the number of drop throughout the exercise. The task of the inspector is to verify that the card has drop within the target area If card fall within the target:Pass the card to the next operator (or to the customer for the
112、 last inspector)Record down the number of good units that are passed to the next 流程 If card does not fall within the target:Pick up the card 和h和it back to the operator The task of the customer is to receive the 20 cards, 和record the time required (i.e. lead time) At the end of the exercise, the 供应商w
113、ill count the number of raw material issue to the 流程流程流程1流程流程2流程流程3供应商CustomerInspectorsOperators55点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What is the 产品产品cost after the change of 流程流程method56点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道
114、 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘某些质量改进工具某些质量改进工具in 6西格玛培训西格玛培训Pareto ChartGraphical representation that describe categories in descending occurrence order 80% of a problem is contributed by 20% of the categoriesSepar
115、ate the important few factors from the many trivial factorsExtensively use to define areas to focus on for detail analysisInputInputDecisionDecision流程流程流程流程StepStepOutputOutputScrapScrapNONOYesYes流程流程Flow DiagramGraphical representation of the various 流程流程activities in sequence.A extended vision fro
116、m IPO diagram to 提供提供more details about the 流程流程Use in 流程流程mapping to identify area where problem surface out.Suggest data collection points for a 流程流程57点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Cause 和和Effect
117、Diagram (Fishbone diagram)DistanceDistanceManManMaterialsMaterialsMeasurementMeasurementMethodsMethodsEnvironmentEnvironmentMachinesMachinesDistanceDistanceManManMaterialsMaterialsMeasurementMeasurementMethodsMethodsEnvironmentEnvironmentMachinesMachines提供a 结构d approach during a brain storming sessi
118、on for root cause analysis.Identifies components to be 1) ignored (Noise), 2) to held Constant, 和3) for optimization through DOE (eXperimentation)Failure Mode 和和Effect Analysis (FMEA)Identifies potential failure mode, evaluate its effect 和analyze the cause(s).RPN in FMEA help to focus on developing
119、改进plan for critical causes.Measurement Capability AnalysisEvaluate the variance in the measurement system.In order to achieve 改进, you must first be able to measure with substantial resolution.58点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDD
120、VD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Regression Modeling 和和DOEDevelop model that describe how the inputs of a 流程influence its output.Allow optimization of 流程和cost through the modelInformation about the strength of the model is availableHo = m1 = m2Ho = m1 = m2H1 = m1 m2H1 = m1 m2Hypothesis Testing提供information
121、 about whether there is a significant difference between two activities.Allow statistical justification rather than the traditional “Gut” feeling justification.Control ChartDistinguish special causes in the 流程Allow 流程monitoring over timeHelps in controlling the 流程through early trend detection59点同职场助
122、手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘脑力风暴脑力风暴It is the generation of ideas in a group situation, based on the principle of suspending judgement. A principle which is highly 产品产品ive in both individual or group e
123、ffortEffective 脑力风暴脑力风暴Well defined 和和clearly stated problemAssign a recorder to write down all the ideas as they occurMaintain manageable group size (i.e 5 to 8 persons)Enforce following guide lines: Suspend judgement Every idea is accepted 和和recorded Encourage people to build on the ideas of other
124、s Encourage wild or odd ideas60点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘某些脑力风暴某些脑力风暴PracticesRandom method:Everyone in the group will throw in ideas randomly as soon as the ideas are generated- Possibility tha
125、t idea contributions are dominated by few persons- Good ideas may be suspress through feeling inferior Cycle method:Each one in the group will come out with one idea, 和和the cycle continues after the the last person in the group has given his contribution- Possibility of putting someone in a uncomfor
126、table position- Idea generation is less dynamic, 和people might feel bored easilySilence method:Everyone in the group will be given 某些某些times to write down all their ideas on papers 和和submit to a designated recorder, who will then consolidate all the ideas 和和record on the board for everyone to view-
127、Lack of real time interaction- Might hinder the building of ideas from contributions generated by others61点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘62点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提
128、供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘为什么为什么为什么为什么do I use it? do I use it? To focus our efforts on the problems that offer the To focus our efforts on the problems that offer the greatest potential for greatest potential for 改进改进改进改进What is it? What is it? A bar ch
129、art for non-numerical categories that A bar chart for non-numerical categories that displays attribute data from highest to lowest displays attribute data from highest to lowest frequency (based on “Pareto Principle” which frequency (based on “Pareto Principle” which states that 80% of the effects a
130、re due to 20% of states that 80% of the effects are due to 20% of the causes)the causes)What does it do? What does it do? Identifies the causes that will have the greatest Identifies the causes that will have the greatest impact on impact on solving the problemsolving the problemIntroduction to Pare
131、to ChartIntroduction to Pareto Chart63点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example of Pareto ChartExample of Pareto Chart64点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，V
132、CD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘65点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Pareto Analysis66点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘
133、，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘67点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘 In particular week of the M&M Factory 产品ion have a major 缺陷of Broken M&M 和Rejected Color Now present which is the group of M&M you s
134、hould look into during 产品ion if the following data is given to you .GroupCost of Manufacturing Broken M&M Rejected Colorper piece(K)(k)Brown $ 0.27.4 3.1 Red$ 0.52.1 1.1Yellow $ 0.31.3 2.1Blue$ 0.36.2 7.4Orange $ 0.28.2 1.3Green$ 0.22.3 6.2 In particular week of the M&M Factory 产品ion have a major 缺陷
135、of Broken M&M 和Rejected Color Now present which is the group of M&M you should look into during 产品ion if the following data is given to you .GroupCost of Manufacturing Broken M&M Rejected Colorper piece(K)(k)Brown $ 0.27.4 3.1 Red$ 0.52.1 1.1Yellow $ 0.31.3 2.1Blue$ 0.36.2 7.4Orange $ 0.28.2 1.3Gree
136、n$ 0.22.3 6.2作出决定的using Pareto Chart68点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘69点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非
137、刻录光盘70点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘71点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘流程Flow Diagram - SymbolsStar
138、tStart流程流程ConnectorConnectorDecisionDecisionFlow/transitionStart/EndStart/EndServices / add value72点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘流程流程流程流程Flow Diagram - Making my cup of coffee Flow Diagram - Making
139、my cup of coffee StartSip my coffeeNo goodgood73点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Inspect the Inspect the tubestubesExternal dirty defectExternal dirty defectfound that cannot be found that cannot be re
140、moved ?removed ?Submit good tubeSubmit good tubeto OQA for buy offto OQA for buy offExternal dirty defectExternal dirty defectfound that cannot be found that cannot be removed ?removed ?PackingPackingTake out the Take out the defect & scrapdefect & scrapFINAL INSPECTION FINAL INSPECTION 流程流程流程流程FLOW
141、 CHARTFLOW CHARTRELATED TO THE EXTERNAL STAINRELATED TO THE EXTERNAL STAINYESYESNONOYESYESNONOAQL AQL Return back theReturn back thelot to lot to 产品产品产品产品ionionFRONTLINEFRONTLINE流程流程流程流程( SGP )( SGP )ADS assemblyADS assemblyRaw GlassRaw GlassAnode Sealing Anode Sealing Glass washing Glass washing Ca
142、thode Sealing Cathode Sealing Glass sawingGlass sawingCathode sealing Cathode sealing AssemblyAssemblyPre CVD washingPre CVD washingCVD coatingCVD coatingSandblastingSandblastingWashing Washing Tinning Tinning Thermal shockThermal shockWashing Washing FluorescentFluorescentFinal Final inspectioninsp
143、ectionTestingTestingEndEndBACK- LINEBACK- LINE流程流程流程流程( BTM )( BTM )流程流程流程流程mapping in term of extrenal stain will be mapping in term of extrenal stain will be performed to identify origin sources of the performed to identify origin sources of the defectdefectNon Value Non Value added added activity
144、activityCost of Poor Cost of Poor 质量质量质量质量Cost of Poor Cost of Poor 质量质量质量质量流程流程流程流程Flow Example IFlow Example I74点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘EndFail OnceFail twiceMechanical Dimension(FAIR Result
145、)Light Transmission ( ( 40mV) 40mV)Insulation Resistance( 10 Gohm)Start Pass Pass Fail流程流程流程流程Flow Example IIFlow Example II75点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Exercise -: Putting them togetherDevelop 流
146、程flow for your project Construct a 流程flow chart for your projects Mark ( *) next to the 流程or step which is value added 和产品ive Identify the number of decision box Indicate the time require in every step including transport Construct a table to summary the number of 产品ive 和non 产品ive 流程 , decision 和flo
147、w Present you Flow chart 和propose changes76点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘FMEA ( Failure Mode Effect Analysis )FMEA , is a attempt to identify possible failure modes 和和effects or consequences that fa
148、ilure modes may have on performance ,提供提供a mean of prevention FMEA 提供提供s an excellent basis for classification of characteristicsIt is a fundamental 工具工具in creating a reliability system Do you have an FMEA in Your 流程流程?When you have a Failure do you know what causes it ? How does FMEA help in Daily
149、work How does FMEA help in Daily work Improves the 质量质量, reliability, 和和safety of 产品产品Increases customer satisfactionReduces 产品产品development timing 和和costDocuments 和和tracks actions taken to reduce risk 77点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，
150、压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Types of FMEA Types of FMEA System FMEA: Used to analyze systems 和和subsystems in the early concept 和和设计设计stages. Focuses on potential failure modes associated with the functions of a system caused by design.设计设计FMEA: Used to analyze 产品产品 before they are released t
151、o 产品产品ion.流程流程FMEA: Used to analyze manufacturing 和和assembly 流程流程es.Defect FMEA : Used to analyze 和和prioritize 缺陷缺陷to prevent reoccurrence (in 产品产品 和流程和流程es)$305,000 Increased Annual Revenue3220 Minutes Less Maintenance Downtime/ Machine/Month452,000 More Piece Increased Annual 产品ion28 Less Maintena
152、nce Calls/Machine/Month 15 Less Sensor Failures Per Year$7,200 Annual Reduction in Maintenance 和Replacement Costs (Source from GE , Motorola ,Bombardier , ABB ,IBM Allied Signal)FMEA Benefits FMEA Benefits 实例实例实例实例From 6From 6西格玛西格玛西格玛西格玛Company Company 78点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http
153、:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘 FMEA : FMEA : 流程流程流程流程/ / 产品产品产品产品FMEAFMEA79点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘SeveritySeverity is an assessment o
154、f the seriousness of effectSeverity is applies to the effect onlyThe following is the evaluation Criteria80点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘OccurrenceThis means how Frequently the failure mode is proje
155、cted to occur as a result of a specific causeIt can be thought of as the probability of occurrence of the failure modeUse a scale of 1(very low) to 5( very high) Frequency81点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，
156、非刻录光盘Detection ( DET ) Assume the failure has occurred; then asses the probability that the current control will detect the failure mode before the 产产品品is shipped outUse a scale of 1(very low) to 5( Nil) Detection 82点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD
157、5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Possible Controls item :Fixture fool- proofingSPCinspectionTestinggauge R & RPreventive maintenanceOperator 培训scheduleStandard operating procedurehumidity / pressure / temperature Controlfinite element analysiscalibration etcRisk Priority Number (RPN)R
158、PN = Severity x Occurrence x DetectionNote : In themselves , absolute RPN numbers have no significant . They are use for “ Paretorising ” or ranking failure causes , to decide which require corrective actions83点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元
159、元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Building an FMEA - Step 2Enter all of the ways that each 流程流程or sub-assembly can failBuilding an FMEA - Step 3What happens when this failure occurs?Building an FMEA - Step 1Enter All of your 流程流程es or sub-assemblies in the first column84点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (htt
160、p:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Building an FMEA - Step 4What causes this failure?Building an FMEA - Step 5What do you now do to prevent this failure?Building an FMEA - Step 6Assign how severe the failure mode is (1 not s
161、evere, 5 catastrophic), how like it is to occur (1 seldom, 5 frequently) 和how likely you will notice the failure mode before it occurs (1 likely, 5 not likely)85点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Sample
162、流程流程FMEA : Filling Petrol into Car86点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘87点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录
163、光盘What is Statistics ?Inferential StatisticsStatistics: The science of collecting, describing & interpreting data The 流程流程of collecting, presenting 和和describing sample data, using graphical 工具和工具和numbersDescriptive StatisticsThe 流程流程of interpreting the sample data to draw conclusions about the popul
164、ation from which the sample was taken Mean=3.2Std dev=2.588点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Population vs SamplePopulation vs SamplePopulation: The set of all possible objects, individuals or events of
165、 interestmean =m 标准偏差标准偏差= or sIf we could measure the mileage per gallon for all the cars in the parking lot the mean 和标准偏差和标准偏差 would be, m =17.3 mpg s= 5.4 mpg89点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Popu
166、lation vs SampleWhat are 某些某些common 实例实例of where we use a sample to make inferences about the population?Instead of taking data for all the cars we take a sample of cars from the parking lot 和和measure the mean 和标准偏差和标准偏差 for their mileage per gallonx = 19.3 mpg s =2.0 mpg From these statistics we ca
167、n make inferences regarding the PopulationSample: A subset of the populationmean = x 标准偏差标准偏差= s90点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘x971.5”x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x856.5”61.5”62.5”64.0”64.5”64.5”65.5”67.5”Mean He
168、ightMean Center Tendency 和和Measure of LocationThe Mean is obtained by adding all the data 和和dividing by thenumber of observations, the symbol x is used to represent the meanx =56.5 + 61.5 + 62.5 + 64.0 + 64.5 + 64.5 + 65.5 + 67.5 + 71.59= 64.2”x1 + x2 + x3 + xnx =# of observationsSum of Data=nThe me
169、an for this data sample is: 91点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘To find the Median, order the data from shortest to tallestThe Median is the the measurement in the middle, 50% of the data points are abo
170、ve the median 和和50% below Note : If there is an even number of data points then the take the average of the two data points nearest the middle56.5”71.5”61.5”62.5”64.0”64.5”64.5”65.5”67.5”In this case the median = 64.5”Median HeightMedian Center Tendency 和和Measure of Location92点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:
171、/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘98,000236,00040,00036,00032,00028,000Mean : 46,000 Total Payroll = $1,058,000# on payroll : 23Average Annual Pay :1058000/23 = $ 46,000How Do We Measure Location93点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(htt
172、p:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘94点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘95点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提
173、供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘96点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘For sniper 2 help him to reduce variation in during firing Concept of Precision 和和AccuracyHow
174、would you help sniper 1 和和2 ?For sniper 1, we adjust the rifle aiming tip to center on the target Precision 和和Accuracy97点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Linking Precision 和和Accuracy to 流程流程Capability &
175、 ControlAccurateYesNoPreciseYesNoAccurate 和和preciseNot accurate but preciseNot accurate 和和not preciseAccurate but not preciseUCLLCLUCLLCLUCLLCLUCLLCLLSLUSLLSLUSLLSLUSLLSLUSLLSL = Lower Specification LimitUSL = Upper Specification LimitLCL = Lower Control LimitUCL = Upper Control LimitOut Liers98点同职场
176、助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘95.45 %69.12 %99.73 %93.32 %99.9999998 %99.9996549 %Short Term YieldLong Term YieldLinking Precision 和和Accuracy to 流程流程Capability & ControlHow can we categorise problems fo
177、und in a 流程?1.Precision problems2.Accuracy problems3.Out-lier problems99点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Statapult Exercise 1Separate into teamsEach person takes one turn at being a shooter, recorder 和
178、和measurerEnsure the Statapult is preset to:Pull back Angle - 177Hook Position - 4Cup Position - 1 Stop Position 3Pin Position - 2Each person will take 3 shotsPractice shots are not allowed 和和there is a 15 seconds time limits between successive shotsRecord the distances in the table 提供提供dCompute the
179、Range, Max, 和和Min of the distanceCup PositionPin PositionPull Back AngleHook PositionStop Position100点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Statapult DataRange = Max - Min = _101点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http
180、:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Plot the Data onto Run Chart102点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Exercise : Understanding of Data V
181、ariance Reduction Project - How to Hit our Target A) Create a IPO A) Create a IPO 和流程和流程和流程和流程Flow Chart on Firing the catapultFlow Chart on Firing the catapultB) Perform B) Perform 脑力风暴和脑力风暴和脑力风暴和脑力风暴和draw a Cause draw a Cause 和和和和Effect Diagram Effect Diagram C) Discuss C) Discuss 和和和和label on the
182、 cause label on the cause 和和和和effect diagram effect diagram C- controllable , N- noise , X - Experimental factor C- controllable , N- noise , X - Experimental factor D) Combine with the FMEA for catapult firingD) Combine with the FMEA for catapult firingE) Write down the standard operating procedure
183、E) Write down the standard operating procedure103点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Cause 和和Effect Diagram -Step 1ManMachineMethodMaterialEnviromentHow to Shoot My Catapult AccuratelyCause 和和Effect Diagr
184、am- Step 2 Discuss with your team 和和identified : which are the factors that are controllable , noise 和和experiment Label them next to each factor on the cause 和和effect diagram 104点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录
185、光盘元起，非刻录光盘Standard Operating ProcedureFactorsDocument NoWork instructionAccurate Firing of Catapult HSP-WI-00011) Tape the Statapult on the Floor 2) Have one person to apply pressure on the Base3) Check the Rubber B和和position 4) One person Pull the Firing Arm Backward to the required angle5) Place t
186、he ball on the cup Gently 和和check orientation6) Let Everyone know that we are ready to fire7) Release The Firing ArmsCause 和和Effect Diagram- Step 3PF / CE / CNX / SOP = Variance Reduction105点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘
187、光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Statapult Data 2Range = Max - Min = _106点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Plot the Data onto Run Chart 2107点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管
188、理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘108点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Statistical Terminology Use in 6西格玛西格玛Important points to note:In order to apply Cp, Cpk, 和和Sigma studies
189、in a 流程流程, the 流流程程must be normally distributed.109点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Impact On 质量质量 Measurement With Changes in Variation110点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管
190、理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Impact On 质量质量 Measurement With Changes in Variation111点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Impact On 质量质量 Measurement With Changes in
191、Variation112点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘113点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘114点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (
192、http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Exercise : Applying what you have learn Using Excel 和和key in your stratapult data before 和和after 改进改进 Find Cpk , Cp 和和dpm for each set of dataWhat is a Histogram ?A histogram is a graphi
193、cal representation of the frequency distribution of data. It is presented as a series of rectangles, each proportional in width to the range of values within a class.Histogram can give a graphical indication on whether the data is normally distributed115点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/
194、)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Constructing a HistogramIn a Muffin factory each weight of the muffin is recorded on a weighing machine In a Muffin factory each weight of the muffin is recorded on a weighing machine the following is the data.the
195、following is the data.Use the following rule to draw a histogram Number of data n = 55Range of data : R = Xmax - X min = 40 15 = 25Number of Class : k = I Square Root n I = 7.1416 = 8 (round up)Class Width w = R/k = 25/8 = 4 (round up)116点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管
196、理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Lg Taken From Each DataNon Normal DataCpk = .6579Cpk = .1942Transformation of Non normal data 1 117点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光
197、盘Transformation of Non normal data example R3 (Resistance 0.1 GOhm)Insulation resistance data is Insulation resistance data is not normally distributednot normally distributedTransformed R3 (Log (Resistance) 0.1)118点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5
198、VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘119点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘120点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘101
199、0元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘121点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘222122点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘123点同职场助手频
200、道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘124点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘125点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http
201、:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Essential Features of a Measurement System Variability should be small compared to that due to the 流程和流程和the specification limits, or to the total 产品产品variation.As rule of thumb for GR&R:126点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频
202、道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Gage R&R Studies of Continuous DataGage: Measurement system, R: Repeatability, & R: ReproducibilityShort Method: Quick 和和meaningful way of determining if Gage is acceptable Only five
203、samples 和和two appraisers are needed Can not separate Repeatability 和和ReproducibilityLong Method: Need at least 10 parts, 3 samples 和和multiple tests Can separate Repeatability 和和Reproducibility Can not separate Operator* Part interactionsAnalysis of Variance (ANOVA) Method: Can separate Repeatability
204、 和和Reproducibility Can separate Operator* Part interactions 127点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘128点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩
205、DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘129点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘GR&R Long MethodExampleUsing GR&R matrix of : 10 Parts, 3 Operators, 2 trialsS2 measurement = S2 repeatability + S2 reproducibility = (
206、0.047)2 + (0.011)2 = 0.02209 + 0.000121 = 0.00233S measurement = 0.048S reproducibility = R(Xbar) / d2 = (4.04 - 4.03) / 1.69 = 0.011Average Rbar = (0.06 + 0.05 + 0.05) / 3 = 0.05333S repeatability = Average Rbar / d2 = 0.05333 / 1.13 = 0.047130点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量
207、资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘GR&R Long Method (cont)Given specification = 3.8 +/- 0.5GR&R (Tolerance) = (6 x 0.048) / (1) = 0.288GR&R (Total) = (0.048) / 0.241 = 0.200131点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，V
208、CD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Graphical Interpretation of GR&RLCL = Avg m (Rbar x A2)UCL = Avg m + (Rbar x A2)LCLUCL132点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Very good repeatability for o
209、perator 3Poor reproducibility because of operator 1, repeatability for operator 1 is also bad.Graphical Interpretation of GR&R (cont)Assuming operator is not a trained inspector, the expected result will be:133点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元
210、元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Conducting GR&R Using Long Method1.Determine GR&R matrix.2.Number the parts, but do not let the operators / inspectors know that you are conducting a gauge study.3.Calibrate the gauge.4.Let the operators / inspectors measure the parts in random order.5.When
211、repeating trials, re-shuffle the parts before letting the operators / inspectors conduct the measurements.6.Use operator / inspectors from different shift if possible7.Tally the result 和compute GR&R8.Interpret the result graphically if necessary134点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下
212、载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘If Repeatability is the problem Replace, repair or adjust the equipment. Revise the standard operating procedure.If Reproducibility is the problem Examine the difference between operators 和和determine if it is due to insu
213、fficient 培训培训, or inspector not following the SOP.If P/TOL 0.30 Check if the specification limits is reasonable or attainableIf P/TOT 0.30 Check the items that were part of the measurement system study 和和see if they are representing at least 80% of the actual total 流程流程variability. Check If the meas
214、urement system equipment is the best condition 和和is performing up to specifications. (or do we have no choice but to use it)If P/TOL or P/TOT close to 0.3 but if the 流程流程is operating at high capability Cpk 2, then the measurement system is most probably not the problem Improving Poor Measurement Sys
215、tem135点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Discuss in group on how to measure the diameter of the catapult ball 和和determine the 流程流程steps.In your group measure the circumference of the group of Catapult Ba
216、ll 提提供供d to you.Each group is to measure the 10 Balls three times, n = 3.Collect the data from the other two groups.Once the data is available, combine the result 和和conduct the GR&R study using the long method.Discuss the repeatability 和和reproducibility of the operator. Use graphical analysis if app
217、ropriate.Gage Repeatability 和和Reproducibility- Exercise136点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Gage Repeatability 和和Reproducibility- Exercise137点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供
218、管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘GR&R for Attribute Data为什么attribute data ?When the output is qualitative 和not quantitative(i.e. color of a solder bump, black spot on flashcube, print 质量) When it is too costly to measure for continuous output(i.e. analyzing the
219、wavelength of the solder bump)When it is too time consuming to measure for continuous output(i.e. measure the light transmission of the flashtube bodies)When continuous measurement is destructive to the part(i.e. wire pull test, impact test for steel rod)为什么is attribute GR&R important ?It highlights
220、 the subjective element in the measurement systemIndicate if the measurement system is biasIt is the basis for establishing accurate 和precise visual inspection138点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Termin
221、ology in Attribute GR&RGauge effectiveness (E):It is the ability of the inspection system to distinguish between defective 和和non-defective parts. Number of correctly identified partsE = - Total number of parts inspectedProbability of False Rejects, P(FR):It is the probability of rejecting a part whe
222、n its actual performance is acceptable. Number of times good parts rejected by the inspectorsP(FR) = - Total number of time good parts are inspectedProbability of False Acceptance, P(FA):It is the probability of accepting a part when its actual performance is unacceptable. Number of times defective
223、parts accepted by the inspectorsP(FA) = - Total number of time defective parts are inspected139点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Terminology in Attribute GR&R (cont)Gauge Bias (B):It is the measure of t
224、he inspection system tendency in classifying a part defective or non-defective. Probability of false reject, P(FR)B = - Probability of false acceptance, P(FA)Guidelines for Attribute GR&R:140点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光
225、盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘ABC company is a food 流程流程ing company that manufactures coffee beans for the up market cafeteria. One of the important 流程流程is the roasting of the coffee bean in order to bring out the aroma of the coffee. The inspection system implemented in this 流程流程is a “smell gauging” metho
226、d, whereby every batch of roasted coffee beans is determine to be pass or fail by 3 trained inspectors in this gauging 流程流程. The supervisor of the bean roasting 流程流程suspected that a large number of rejects in the line was due to the measurement error, 和和wanted to conduct an experiment to analyze the
227、 accuracy of the existing measurement system that consists of the 3 trained inspectors.He deliberately mix 25 marked batches of both good 和和bad roasted bean into the line without the knowing of the inspectors. He then repeatedly put back the same 25 coffee bean batches into the line such that each i
228、nspectors tested the same 25 coffee bean batches for a total of 3 times unknowingly. At the end of the experiment, the supervisor consolidated all the finding on the 25 batches by each inspector, 和和compared these findings with the actual performance of these 25 coffee bean batches (i.e. the classifi
229、cation of good or bad batches is determined by the supervisor himself).With reference to the data collected by the supervisor (i.e. presented in the next page), What can you conclude about the measurement system of this coffee bean case study ?Attribute GR&R Example141点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/
230、或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Attribute GR&R Example (Cont)R = RejectA = Accept142点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Attribute GR&R
231、Example (Cont)Step 1: With reference to the actual performance, assign 1 point for every correct inspection response.143点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Attribute GR&R Example (Cont)Step 2: Find the to
232、tal reject 和accept opportunitiesWith reference to actual performance, multiply the total parts, total R, 和total A by the number of trials 和grouped by each inspector.Sum the total opportunities horizontally for all the inspectorsStep 3: Find the actual false rejects 和false accepts in the experiments
233、Correct response is when the assign point for each trial is equal to 1 (i.e. test = actual performance). False reject is when the assign point for each trial is 0 和the trial result is reject, R. False accept is when the assign point for each trial is 0 和the trial result is accept, A.144点同职场助手频道点同职场助
234、手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Step 4: Find the total probabilities from the GR&R equations given earlierAttribute GR&R Example (Cont)Conclusions:1. All 3 inspectors tend to bias towards rejecting good parts.2. I
235、nspector 2 has acceptable gauging skill as far as the supervisor is concerned.3. Inspector 3 has the highest bias towards rejecting good parts.4. Over all effectiveness is acceptable, but however is bias towards false reject. 145点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提
236、供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Variable Data vs Attribute Data in GR&RVariable Data -Data that is continuous 和can be quantify by the measurement system (i.e. Temperature, Voltage, Length)Attribute Data -Data which cannot be quantified, 和exist in one of the 2 states, eit
237、her “accept” or “reject”. (i.e. Taste, Visual inspection) 146点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Effective Attribute GR&R- Give concise instructions- Reduce number of criteria in one single test- Identify
238、 prominent features- 提供visual comparison when possible- Adequate 培训和familiarization- Use appropriate inspection gauge (i.e. Electronic indicator)- Convert attribute data to variable whenever possible Gauging the clarity of glass tube visually versus measuring the intensity of light passing through t
239、he tube. Gauging for fever by h和versus measuring the body temperature. Gauging the 质量 of the red wine versus measuring the viscosity 和PH level of the wine.147点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘MSA Design
240、:- No. of Operators: 3- No. of Replicates: 3- No. of Parts: 20Interpretation:- Probability of False Acceptance is too high Caused: poor sockets cap condition Lack of audio indicator- Gage is unacceptableExample of improving attribute GR&RBefore 改进改进Interpretation: Use ceramic sockets cap with pins g
241、uide Include buzzer as reject indicator- Gage is now acceptableAfter 改进改进Measurement system includes a test socket where detector can be plug in, 和和the green LED will go off if the measured resistance is less than 100 M .148点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训
242、讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Attribute GR&R ExerciseBreak into teams of 5 with the following roles:One InstructorOne InstructorOne SupervisorOne SupervisorThree InspectorsThree InspectorsEach team will be assigned with 25 M&Ms of different 质量. The instructor will determine
243、 the criteria for a good M&M (i.e. Clear M sign, no chip-off, color, etc). The instructor will pass down these requirements to the supervisor who will then pass these information to the inspectors. The supervisor will distribute the M&Ms to the inspectors as randomly as possible, 和ask them to rate e
244、ach M&M as “good” or “bad”. There will only be one trial for each inspector, 和the inspectors are to submit their rating sheets to the supervisor at the end of the inspection. The inspectors are to assess the M&Ms individually without any communication among each others.149点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(ht
245、tp:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Probability Theory概率理論概率理論What is probability ?Probability is the chance which something will happen, 和和are expressed as fractions or as decimals. It is a value between 0 和和1 (i.e. 0% to 100%). W
246、hat is an event ?An event is one or more of the possible outcomes of doing something. (i.e. tossing of a coil will give rise to a Head event or a Tail event.What is an experiment ?It is the activity that produces events.EventPeopleMaterialsEquipmentEnvironmentProbability will determine the chance of
247、 an event. In 6 sigma 方法, we want to control our inputs so as to increase the probability of a favorable event. Conversely, we will also make decision on what needs to be done (or change) based on the probability 知识 attained from experiments.概率理論150点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料
248、下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Probability in Everyday Lives Experiments表現手法表現手法Decisions結論結論Weather Forecast Opting between indoor 和和outdoor activities 天氣預報天氣預報Gambling Whether or not to ask for another card in a blackjack game賭博賭博Sales Forecast Inv
249、entories planning銷售額預測銷售額預測 詳細計划詳細計划Examination questions Which chapters of the books to revise for the examination猜測考試題目猜測考試題目 書中哪一章會被考試書中哪一章會被考試Statistics shows that 9 out of 10 patients die in this operation. Since you are my 10th patient, you dont have to worry at all, as your chance is perfect.
250、It is really comforting to know about this.這是一句安慰人的話吧日常生活的概率實例日常生活的概率實例151点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Probability Approach1. Classical approach古典定義古典定義2. Relative frequency approach頻率定義頻率定義Classic
251、al approach defines that the probability for an event to occur as: Number of outcomes where the event occursProbability of an event = - Total number of possible outcomes 1Probability (head in one toss) = - = 0.5 (1 + 1) 1Probability (2 in a dice roll) = - = 0.167 (1+1+1+1+1+1)Classical approach is b
252、ased on logical reasoning before any experiment takes place概率定義 152点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Relative frequency approach頻率定義頻率定義It defines probability as the proportion of times which an event o
253、ccurs in the long run when the conditions are stable.Example:From historical data, it was found out that 75,000 out of every 100,000 children who are over-weight after the age of 10, remain to be over-weight when reaching adulthood.With this information, it is estimated that the probability of over-
254、weight children after age of 10 to become a over-weight adult is:75,000 - = 0.75 (i.e. 75%) 100,000 Relative frequency probability in getting “head” from tossing a unbiased coin.153点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，
255、非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Probability Rules“Mutually exclusive events”Events are said to be mutually exclusive when only one event can take place at a time. (i.e. tossing of a coin)Conversely, if more than one output can occur at the same time, the event are not mutually exclusive. (i.e. Probability of drawing a
256、n ace or a heart from a deck of cards)Most people who makes use of probabilities are concerned with two conditions:1. Marginal or unconditioned probability - the case where only one event or another will take place (i.e. mutually exclusive event)2. Conditioned probability - the case where two or mor
257、e events will both occur概率的規則154点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Probability Rules (Cont)“Marginal probability”example:25 members of a class drew lots to determine which student would get a free trip t
258、o the much sought after National Day Festival in Thailand. The probability for any student of that class to win the draw can be calculated as:P(Winning) = 1/25 = 0.04In this case, a student chance is one in 25, as we are certain that only one student can win at a time (i.e. events are mutually exclu
259、sive).Probability of something happening(i.e. Total area = P(any event) = 1)Probability of an event(i.e. P(Winning) of 1 student)P(1 event) = 0.04P(1 event) = 0.04155点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Pr
260、obability Rules (Cont)“Addition rule for marginal probability”Additional rule in marginal probability is used when we are interested in the probability that one thing or another will occur, 和is denote as:P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)example:The management of a company will select one out of the 4 equally
261、capable employees to be promoted to the supervisor position. The employees consist of John, Sally, Bill, 和Karen. What is the probability that Sally will be the candidate ?P(Sally) = = 0.25What is the probability that Sally or Bill will be the candidate ?P(Sally or Bill) = P(Sally) + P(Bill) = + = 0.
262、5BillSallyJohnKaren156点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Probability Rules (Cont)“Addition rule for conditioned probability”Conditioned probability is used when we are interested in the probability that
263、one thing or another will occur, when the events are not mutually exclusive (i.e. when events can occur together):AceHeartP(Ace)P(Heart)P(Ace 和和Heart)P(Ace or Heart) = P(Ace) + P(Heart) - P(Ace 和和Heart) = 4/52 + 13/52 1/52 = 16/52 = 0.3077Example:What is the probability of getting an Ace or a heart
264、in a deck of 52 cards ?157点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Probability under Statistical Independence“Statistical independence”Under statistical independence, the occurrence of one event has no effect
265、on the probability of the occurrence of any other event.“Joint probabilities under statistical independence”The probability of two or more independent events occurring together, or in succession is denoted as: P(AB) = P(A) x P(B)where,P(A)= Marginal probability of event A occurringP(B)= Marginal pro
266、bability of event B occurringP(AB)= Joint probability of event A 和B occurring together or in succession.Example: What is the probability of getting 2 heads on two successive tosses of a fair coin ?P(H1 和H2)= P(H1) x P(H2) = 1/2 x 1/2= 1/4= 0.25独立性与独立事件的概率158点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)ht
267、tp:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘“The probability tree”A graphical approach that describe the probabilities of event under the condition of statistical independence.How should the probability tree of tossing a fair coin look like ?Toss 1Total
268、: 1.0 Toss 21.00 Toss 31.00 .5 .5P(H) = 0.5P(T) = 0.5.125.125.125.125.125.125.125.125P(H) = 0.5P(H) = 0.5P(H) = 0.5P(H) = 0.5P(T) = 0.5P(T) = 0.5P(T) = 0.5P(T) = 0.5 .25 .25 .25 .25P(H) = 0.5P(H) = 0.5P(T) = 0.5P(T) = 0.5159点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训
269、讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘“Transferring the probability tree to outcomes table”1 TossPossible OutcomesProbability3 TossesPossible OutcomesProbability2 TossesPossible OutcomesProbabilityH1T10.50.5H1, H2H1, T20.250.25T1, H2T1, T20.250.25H1, H2, H3H1, H2, T30.1250.125H1, T
270、2, H3H1, T2, T30.1250.125T1, H2, H3T1, H2, T30.1250.125T1, T2, H3T1, T2, T30.1250.1251.01.001.00160点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘“Conditional probabilities under statistical independence”The probabi
271、lity that a second event B will occur if a first event A has already happened. As mentioned earlier, under statistical independence, the probability of one event will not affect the probability of the subsequent event:Therefore, P(B|A) = P(B)In the tossing of a fair coin, what is the probability tha
272、t the second toss is head ?Since the tossing of a coin is a statistical independence experiment, the result of the first toss will not influence the out come of the second toss, therefore the probability of the second toss to be head is still : = 1 out of 2= 0.5161点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或ht
273、tp:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Probability under Statistical Dependence“Statistical Dependence”Statistical dependence exists when the probability of 某些event is dependent upon or affected by the occurrence of 某些other event.“Statistical
274、 dependence example”Assuming there is one bag containing 10 balls as follows:4 x Red Striped Box3 x Green Dotted Box2 x Red Dotted Box1 x Green Striped Box162点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘“Marginal
275、probabilities under statistical dependence”Under statistical dependence, conditional probabilities are computed by summing up the probabilities of all joint events in which the simple event occurs.P(Green) = P(Green Dotted) + P(Green Striped) = 0.3 + 0.1 = 0.4 P(Dotted) = P(Green Dotted) + P(Red Dot
276、ted) = 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5P(Striped) = P(Red Striped) + P(Green Striped) = 0.4 + 0.1 = 0.5163点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘ExampleSuppose someone draws a green box from the bag. What is the probability
277、that it is dotted ?The question can be rephrase as : What is the conditional probability that a drawn box is dotted, given that the box is green in color ?Symbolically = P(Dotted | Green) = P(Dotted = P(Dotted 和和和和Green) / P(Green)Green) / P(Green); for statistical dependence ; for statistical depen
278、dence event event P(Dotted P(Dotted 和和和和Green) = 3/10Green) = 3/10P(Green) = 4/10P(Green) = 4/10 = 0.3 / 0.4 = 0.3 / 0.4 = 0.75 = 0.75164点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Solving the problem with a tabl
279、eWhat is the probability that a drawn box is striped, given that the box is red ?Symbolically = P(Striped | Red)DottedStripedGreen0.30.10.4Red0.20.40.60.50.5What is the probability that the drawn box is red ?What is the probability of drawing a red striped box ?What is the conditional probability of
280、 the drawn box to be striped when drawn red ?0.40.40.60.6 = P(Striped 和和Red) / P(Red) = 0.4 / 0.6 = 0.667165点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘“Joint probabilities under statistical dependence”We know th
281、at the formula for conditional probability under statistical dependence is :P(A|B) = P(A 和B) / P(B)If we shift P(A 和B) to the left 和P(A|B) to the right, we will have:P(A 和B) = P(A|B) x P(B)Joint probability of events A 和和B happening together or in successionProbability of event A given that event B
282、has happenedProbability that event B will happened166点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘With reference to the scenario of 10 boxes in a bag, what is the probability to draw a green dotted box ?P(Dotted 和
283、Green) = P(Dotted|Green) x P(Green) = 0.75 x 0.4 = 0.3DottedStripedGreen0.30.10.4Red0.20.40.60.50.5P(G 和和D)P(R 和和S)P(R 和和D)P(G 和和S)P(D)P(S)P(G)P(R)167点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Posterior Probabil
284、ity (Bayes Theorem)Posterior probability defines that certain probabilities were Posterior probability defines that certain probabilities were altered after the people involved obtained additional altered after the people involved obtained additional information. This new probabilities are known as
285、revised, information. This new probabilities are known as revised, or posterior probabilities.or posterior probabilities.A Chef has formulated a new chicken recipe 和based on his experience with formulating a steak recipe, the probability of selling a recipe well is to increase the amount of garlic p
286、owder in the ingredients. However, after introducing the new recipe for one week, he found that the new chicken recipe does not sell as well as the old one, he must therefore revise his prior probabilities 和use other ingredients in the recipe. Calculating posterior probabilitiesAssuming that we have
287、 equal numbers of 2 types of “biased” dice in a bowl. One type of the biased die will roll out a value of Five 40% of the time, 和和the other type will roll out the value Five, 70% of the time. If one dice is drawn 和和roll to the value Five, what is the probability that it is a type 1 dice ?168点同职场助手频道
288、点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Type 1Type 20.40.70.50.51.01.00.4 x 0.5 = 0.200.7 x 0.5 = 0.35P(Five) = 0.55P(Five) = 0.55ElementaryEventProbability(Elementary Event)Probability(Five|Elementary Event)Probabil
289、ity(Five, Elementary Event)Calculating posterior probabilities (Cont)P(A P(A 和和和和B) = P(A|B) x P(B)B) = P(A|B) x P(B)To find the probability that the dice we have drawn is type 1, we should adopt the formula for conditional probability under statistical dependence:P(B | A) = P(BA) / P(A)P(Type 1 | F
290、ive) = P(Type 1, Five) / P(Five)P(Type 1 | Five) = P(Type 1, Five) / P(Five) = 0.20 / 0.55 = 0.20 / 0.55 = 0.364 = 0.364Therefore the probability of drawing a type 1 dice is 0.364169点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起
291、，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Calculating posterior probabilities (Cont)As such, what is the probability of drawing a type 1 dice before the dice was rolled ?0.5What is the revised probability of drawing a type 1 dice after the dice was rolled 和having a value of Five ?0.364If we are to roll the same dice again 和ach
292、ieve a value of Five, what is the probability that it is a type 1 dice ?P(Type 1 | 2 Fives) = P(Type 1, 2 Fives) / P(2 Fives)P(Type 1 | 2 Fives) = P(Type 1, 2 Fives) / P(2 Fives)ElemEventProbability(Elem Event)Probability(2 Fives|Elem Event)Probability(2 Fives, Elem Event)Type 1Type 20.4 x 0.4 = 0.1
293、60.7 x 0.7 = 0.490.50.51.01.00.16 x 0.5 = 0.080.49 x 0.5 = 0.245P(2 Fives) = 0.325P(2 Fives) = 0.325 = (0.08 / 0.325) = (0.08 / 0.325) = 0.246 = 0.246170点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Further example
294、 of posterior probabilities更多的實際例子更多的實際例子Kenneth is a manager of a automation 设计company 和has previously 8 engineering staffs reporting to him. Based on his assessments on the 8 engineers, he is only satisfied with the performance of 6 of his engineers. He further concluded from past 5 years observat
295、ion that if a project was assigned to those engineers who had met his work expectation, 85% of the time the project will be completed before dateline. On the other hand, the 2 engineers whose performance is unsatisfactory, has only 35% of the time completed their projects before dateline.One of the
296、2 “unsatisfactory” engineer had resigned from the company 8 months ago, 和his replacement, Joe had since then join the company for a period of 6 months, 和it is now time for Kenneth to review Joes probation status, which he would like to do this through probability study.During the pass 6 months in th
297、e company, Joe had successfully completed 3 projects before the given dateline. Based on this information, what is the chance that Joes actual ability is up to Kenneth expectation ?171点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010
298、元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Further example of posterior probabilities (cont)Event = Employing the correct or incorrect personStrike = Success in closing the project before datelineEventP(Event)P(3 Strikes|Event)P(3 Strikes, Event)P(Correct | 3 Strikes) = P(Correct, 3 Strikes) / P(3 Strikes)P(Correct | 3 Strike
299、s) = P(Correct, 3 Strikes) / P(3 Strikes) = (0.4606 / 0.4713) = (0.4606 / 0.4713) = 0.9773 = 0.9773If Joe has completed 3 successive projects before dateline, the posterior probability that he is the correct candidate for the job is 0.9773 (or 97.73%).CorrectIncorrect0.853 = 0.61410.353 = 0.04296/8
300、= 0.752/8 = 0.251.01.00.6141 x 0.75 = 0.46060.0429 x 0.25 = 0.0107P(3 Strikes) = 0.4713P(3 Strikes) = 0.4713172点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Further example of posterior probabilities (cont)If Joe d
301、oes not meet his dateline target for the 4th project, does it mean that Kenneth has make the wrong judgement, 和what is the probability associated ? EventP(Event)P(SSSN|Event)P(SSSN, Event)CorrectIncorrect0.853 x 0.15 = 0.09210.353 x 0.65 = 0.02796/8 = 0.752/8 = 0.251.01.00.0921 x 0.75 = 0.06910.0279
302、 x 0.25 = 0.0070P(SSSN) = 0.0761P(SSSN) = 0.0761P(Correct | SSSN) = P(Correct, SSSN) / P(SSSN)P(Correct | SSSN) = P(Correct, SSSN) / P(SSSN) = (0.0691 / 0.0761) = (0.0691 / 0.0761) = 0.9080 = 0.9080If Joe does not meet the dateline for his 4th projects, then Kenneth will be 90.8% sure that Joe is th
303、e correct candidate for the job.173点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘StartAre events mutually exclusive ?P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)P(A or B) =P(A) + P(B) P(AB)Are events statistically independent ?Marginal
304、 probability of event A is P(A)Marginal probability of event A is sum of all joint events where A occursJoint probability of 2 events is P(AB) = P(A) x P(B)Joint probability of 2 events is P(AB) = P(A|B) x P(B)Conditional probability is P(A|B) = P(A)Conditional probability is P(A|B) = P(AB)/P(B)Dete
305、rmined posterior probabilitiesEnd174点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Introduction to Probability DistributionWhat is probability distribution?It is a theoretical frequency distribution that describe ho
306、w outcome are expected to vary, 和和are useful models in making inferences under conditions of uncertainty.实例实例(tossing of a fair coin)If we toss a fair coin twice, the possible outcomes are:1st Toss2nd TossTotal no. of tailsP(outcomes)TTHHTHTH21100.5 x 0.5 = 0.250.5 x 0.5 = 0.250.5 x 0.5 = 0.250.5 x
307、0.5 = 0.25No. of TailsTossesP(Tail)012P(H,H)P(T,H) + P(H,T)P(T,T)0.250.500.25No. of tailsProbability0120.250.5175点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example of statistical inference using probability dist
308、ributionMartin is one of the authorized magazine distributors for the monthly business journal “Financial Times”. The distribution contract with the magazine publisher has stated clearly that no back issues are allowed in the store in order to prevent readers from obtaining / misled by back-dated ma
309、rket information, causing creditability 和和liability impact to the publisher. Due to the popularity of the magazine, all distributor are allowed to place only one order every month, 和和the publisher will not refund any excess order placed by the distributor if the magazine was not sold out for any par
310、ticular month.Each magazine cost US$2, 和和the distributor earn US$3 from each copy sold. In order to maximize his profit by reducing loss, Martin decide to use probability study to help him make his decision on the number of magazine to order each month. He collected his sale data over a period of 1
311、year as below:Monthly Sales10000110001200013000No. of Months2442P(Monthly Sales)0.167 (i.e. 2/12)0.333 (i.e. 4/12)0.333 (i.e. 4/12)0.167 (i.e. 2/12)176点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example of statis
312、tical inference using probability distribution (cont)There are 2 types of possible losses; cost of obsolescence (i.e. excess order that has to be throw away), 和和cost of loss opportunity (i.e. cost of losing sales).Cost of obsolescence = (Monthly Order - Monthly Sale) x US$2 x P(M_Sale)where negative
313、 value equal to no lossCost of loss opportunity = (Monthly Sale - Monthly Order) x US$3 x P(M_Sale)where negative value equal to no lossTotal Losses = Obsolescence Cost + Opportunity Cost177点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘
314、光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Monthly Sales10000110001200013000ObsolescenceLosses0000P(M_Sales)0.1670.3330.3330.167Monthly Order from Publisher = 10000Total Losses4500OpportunityLosses099920191503Monthly Sales10000110001200013000ObsolescenceLosses334000P(M_Sales)0.1670.3330.3330.167Monthly Order from Publis
315、her = 11000Total Losses2335OpportunityLosses009991002Monthly Sales10000110001200013000ObsolescenceLosses66866600P(M_Sales)0.1670.3330.3330.167Monthly Order from Publisher = 12000Total Losses1885OpportunityLosses000501Monthly Sales10000110001200013000ObsolescenceLosses100213326660P(M_Sales)0.1670.333
316、0.3330.167Monthly Order from Publisher = 13000Total Losses3000OpportunityLosses0000Example of statistical inference using probability distribution (cont)Therefore in order to maximize his profit, Martin will need to order 12000 magazine per month.178点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资
317、料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Types of Probability DistributionsWhat is the difference between frequency 和和probability distributions ?Frequency distribution is a listing of observed frequencies for all the outcomes that occurred when an experiment
318、was done,while probability distribution is a listing of the probabilities for all the possible outcomes if the same experiment is to be carried out.Discrete probability distributionsA distribution of probabilities which allowed to take on a limited number of values for its outcomes. (i.e. the rollin
319、g of a dice) Binomial distribution Poisson distributionContinuous probability distributionsA distribution of probabilities which allowed to take on a any number of values within a given range of outcomes. (i.e. the rolling of a dice) Normal distribution Student T distribution179点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (htt
320、p:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Binomial DistributionsWhat is the binomial distributions ?A probability distribution of discrete random variable, resulting from an experiment known as Bernoulli 流程流程.Conditions for the use
321、 of binomial distributions (i.e. Bernoulli trial)?Each experimental trial has only two possible outcomes: success or failure, head or tail.Probability of the outcome of any trial remains fixed over time (i.e. statistical independence). 和和the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the su
322、bsequent event.Characteristic of binomial distributionp = Probability of successq = Probability of failurer = Number of success desiredn = Number of undertaken trials180点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光
323、盘Probability mass function for binomial distribution n!Probability of r successes in n trials = - x pr x qn-r r! (n - r)!Example of using binomial distributionPaul is a manufacturing manager of a disk drive company who has five 流程流程engineers reporting to him. He is facing a situation where his engin
324、eers are often late for work, 和和after 某些某些observation, he has determined that there is a 0.4 chance that any one engineer will be late. If at any one time, the 产品产品ion will required 3 流程流程engineers to run smoothly, what is the probability that his 产品产品ion will run smoothly at present situation ?Prob
325、ability of success (late), p = 0.4Probability of failure (early), q = 0.6Number of trial (engineers), n = 5Number of success (late), r = 2 or less181点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘 n!Probability of r
326、 late arrival out of n student = - x pr x qn-r r! (n - r)!Example of using binomial distribution (cont)For r = 0, 5!P(0) = - (0.40) (0.65) 0!(5 - 4)! = 0.07776For r = 1, 5!P(1) = - (0.41) (0.65-1) 1!(5 - 1)! = 0.2592For r = 2, 5!P(2) = - (0.42) (0.65-2) 2!(5 - 2)! = 0.3456For r = 3, 5!P(0) = - (0.43
327、) (0.65-3) 3!(5 - 3)! = 0.2304For r = 4, 5!P(1) = - (0.44) (0.65-4) 4!(5 - 4)! = 0.0768For r = 5, 5!P(2) = - (0.45) (0.65-5) 5!(5 - 5)! = 0.01024Total probability = 0.0776 + 0.2592 + 0.3456 + 0.2304 + 0.0768 + 0.01024 = 1Total probability = 0.0776 + 0.2592 + 0.3456 + 0.2304 + 0.0768 + 0.01024 = 1182
328、点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example of using binomial distribution (cont)No. of engineers lateProbability0120.10.23450.30.4Since Paul required at least 3 engineers at one time for the 产品产品ion to b
329、e smooth, he can only allow 2 or less engineers to be late at any one day.r = 2P( r = 2 ) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2)P( r 1)= 1 - 0.04042= 0.9596Therefore there is 95.96% chance that earth will be hit more than one time by the solar wind for any given month.187点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/
330、)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Conditions of using Poisson as an estimation of binomial: The number of trials, n is large The probability of success, p is smallPoisson distribution as an estimation of binomial distributionThe rule of thumb is:A
331、Poisson is a good approximation of the binomial when the number of trial, n is equal to or greater than 20, 和和the probability of success p, is equal to or less than 0.05.Under this condition;Poisson Mean, substitute by binomial mean so that; (np)X X e-npP(X) = - X!188点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或
332、或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘189点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Normal Distributions常態分配常態分配What is the normal distributions ?A d
333、istribution that is used to describe 流程流程es with continuous random variable output, 和和it comes very close to the actual observed frequency distributions of many phenomena.Conditions of a Poisson distribution ?Important features of a normal distribution are:1.The distribution has a single peak define
334、d by a bell shaped curve.2.The mean of the normally distributed population lies at the center of its normal curve3.Because it is symmetric, the median 和和mode of the distribution are also at the center of the distribution. Hence mean = median = mode.MeanModeMedian190点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或h
335、ttp:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What describes a normal distributions ?A population that is normally distributed can be described by 2 parameters. Its mean (i.e. the center of the location), 和和its 标准偏差标准偏差 (i.e. the dispersion of the
336、distribution).Yellow curve has very small 标标准偏差准偏差. (i.e. = 0.1)Red curve has larger 标准偏差标准偏差. (i.e. = 1)Green curve has very large 标标准偏差准偏差. (i.e. = 10)Yellow curve has small mean. (i.e. m = 10)Green curve has larger mean. (i.e. m = 20)191点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提
337、供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Area under a normal curveRegardless of what is the value of mean (m) 和标准偏差和标准偏差 ( ) for a normal distribution, the total area under the curve is 1. (i.e. total probability is 1 or 100%)Normal Distribution-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 01 2 3
338、 4 5 6 - 99.9999998% - 99.73% - 95.45% -68.27%- 3 variation is called natural tolerance 1. Approximately 68.27% of all values in a normally distributed population lie within one 标准偏差 from the mean.2. Approximately 95.45% of all values in a normally distributed population lie within two 标准偏差s from th
339、e mean.3. Approximately 99.73% of all values in a normally distributed population lie within three 标准偏差s from the mean.192点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Using the standard normal probability distribu
340、tion tableAs the probability distribution of a normal curve is associated with its mean 和标准偏差和标准偏差, we are able to determine the area under the curve by normalizing the distance a random variable is away from its mean, with its 标准偏差标准偏差.This is denoted as: X - mZ = - Where;X= value of the random var
341、iable which we are concernedm= mean of the distribution of this random variable = 标准偏差标准偏差 of this distributionz= number of 标准偏差标准偏差s from X to its mean of this distribution193点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘
342、元起，非刻录光盘Using the standard normal probability distribution table (cont)Assuming, Mean, m = 5标准偏差标准偏差, = 0.1What is the probability associate with the area under the normal curve if random variable X = 5.05.Z=(X m) / =(5.05 5) / 0.1=0.5m = 5m = 55.050.5 From the table:Area under the curve when Z = 0.
343、5 is: 0.6915194点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example of using normal distributionA self-administered 培训培训program aiming at upgrading the statistic skills of the line operators has been initiated in
344、ABC company for 12 months. As this is a self-administered program, different candidates will take different times to complete the 培训培训. From the 12 months records, the average length of time spent to complete the program is 400 hours with a 标准偏差标准偏差 of 80 hours.What is the probability that a candida
345、te selected at random will require more than 400 hours to complete the 培训培训?m = 400 hoursm = 400 hoursTotal area under normal curve = 1hence, P(400) = 0.550% chance that a random selected candidate to take more than 400 hours to complete the 培训培训.195点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资
346、料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What is the probability that a candidate selected at random will require between 400 和550 hours to complete the 培训?Example of using normal distribution (cont)From the standardized normal distribution table,Z = 1.875 =
347、0.9696Area between 400 to 500 = 0.9696 0.5 = 0.4696As such 46.96% chance that a random candidate will take between 400 to 550 hours to complete the 培训培训.Z=(X m) / =(550 400) / 80=1.875Area when Z = 1.8750.5196点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元
348、/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What is the probability that a candidate selected at random will takes more than 650 hours to complete the 培训?Example of using normal distribution (cont)From the standardized normal distribution table,Z = 3.125 = 0.99911Area 650 = 1 0.99911 = 0.00089As such t
349、here is only 0.089% chance that a random candidate will take more than 650 hours to complete the 培训培训.Z=(X m) / =(650 400) / 80=3.125Area when Z = 3.125197点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What is the p
350、robability that a candidate selected at random will takes between 360 hours 和510 hours to complete the 培训?Example of using normal distribution (cont)0100200300400500600700800900Z1Z2Z1 =(X m) / =(360 400) / 80=-0.5Z2 =(X m) / =(510 400) / 80=1.375From the standardized normal distribution table,Area u
351、nder the curve when Z1 = -0.5 = 0.3085Area under the curve when Z2 = 1.375 = 0.9154 Area between Z1 和和Z2 = 0.9154 0.3085 = 0.6069As such 60.69% chance that a random candidate will take between 360 hours 和和510 hours to complete the 培训培训.198点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供
352、管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Normal distribution as an binomial distribution approximationNormal distribution can sometimes be used as an approximation for binomial distribution, giving the conditions:a) np 5b) nq 5ExampleWhat is the probability of getting 5
353、,6,7, or 8 tails in 10 tosses of fair coin ?p = 0.5,q = 0.5,n = 10,r = 5, 6, 7, or 8From binomial probability distributions table,P(5,6,7,8) = P(5) + P(6) + P(7) + P(8) = 0.2461 + 0.2051 + 0.1172 + 0.0439 = 0.6123199点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD
354、5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example (cont)Substitute the mean 和标准偏差和标准偏差 of binomial distribution into a normal distribution, we have:Mean, m = np = 5标准偏差标准偏差, = npq = 1.581Probability0123456789104.5 to 8.5To improve the accuracy of the approximation, subtract 和add a continuity c
355、orrection factor of 0.5 to the range 5 to 8 respectively. The area under this range is what we are interested in.200点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example (cont)At x = 4.5,z = (x - m) / = (4.5 - 5) /
356、 1.581 = -0.32At x = 8.5,z = (x - m) / = (8.5 - 5) / 1.581 = 2.21From standardised normal distribution table,at z = -0.32P(4.5) = 1 - 0.6255 = 0.3745at z = 2.21P(8.5) = 0.9864Hence, P(4.5 x 8.5) = 0.9864 - 0.3745 = 0.6119 (approx equal to 0.6123 by binomial distribution)201点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(h
357、ttp:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Introduction to Sampling取樣的介紹取樣的介紹What is population in statistic ?A population in statistic refers to all items that have been chosen for study.What is a sample in statistic ?A sample in statis
358、tic refers to a portion chosen from a population, by which the data obtain can be used to infer on the actual performance of the population PopulationSample 2Sample 6Sample 8Sample 1Sample 3Sample 7Sample 4Sample 5202点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VC
359、D5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Symbols for population 和和sampleFor population,Population mean = mPopulation size = NPopulation 标准偏差标准偏差= For sample,Sample mean = X Sample size= nSample 标准偏差标准偏差 = SSampling distribution - a distribution of sample meansIf you take 10 samples out of th
360、e same populations, you will most likely end up with 10 different sample means 和和sample 标准偏差标准偏差s. A Sampling distribution describes the probability of all possible means of the samples taken from the same population.Population mean, m = 150Sampling distributionmean, XSample 2,mean X2Sample 1,mean X
361、1Sample 3,mean X3Sample n,mean XnCollection of sample means203点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘m = 150m = 150Population distribution with = 25When sample size increases, the standard error (or the std
362、deviation of sampling distribution) will get smaller.Sample distribution with std error x much less than 25 (when n = 30)Sample distribution with std error x 25 (when n = 5)Sampling distribution (cont)取樣分配取樣分配Like all normal curve, the sampling distribution can be described by its mean, x 和its 标准偏差
363、x (which is also known as standard error of the mean). As such, the standard error measures the extent to which we expect the means from different samples to vary due to chance error in sampling 流程.Standard error = Population 标准偏差 / square root of sample size x = / n 204点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http
364、:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Central Limit Theorem中心線規則中心線規則1.The mean x of the sampling distribution will approximately equal to the population mean regardless of the sample size. The larger the sample size, the closer the sa
365、mple mean is towards the population mean.2.2. The sampling distribution of the mean will approach normality regardless of the actual population distribution.3.3. It assures us that the sampling distribution of the mean approaches normal as the sample size increases.4.It allow us to use sample statis
366、tics to make inferences about population parameters without knowing anything about the actual population distribution, other than what we can obtain from the sample.m = 150Population distributionx = 150Sampling distribution(n = 5)x = 150Sampling distribution(n = 20)205点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/
367、或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example of sampling distributionThe population distribution of annual income of engineers is skewed negatively. This distribution has a mean of $48,000, 和a 标准偏差 of $5000. If we draw a sample of 100 e
368、ngineers, what is the probability that their average annual income is $48700 和more.m = $48KPopulation distribution = $5000x = $48KSampling distribution(n = 100)x = ?$48.7KSince population mean is equal to sampling distribution mean (i.e. central limit theorem), henceX = m = 48000Sampling distributio
369、n mean = Standard error = x = / n = 5000 / 100 = 5000 / 10= 500206点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Example of sampling distribution (cont)x = $48KSampling distribution(n = 100)x = 500$48.7KTherefore,me
370、an = 48000sigma = 500X = 50000Z = (48700 - 48000) / 500 = 700 / 500 = 1.4From the standardized normal distribution table, P(X $48700) = 0.9192Therefore;P(X $48700) = 1 - 0.9192 = 0.0808Thus, we have determined that it has only 8.08% chance for the average annual income of 100 engineers to be more th
371、an $48700.207点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Central Limit Theorem ExerciseBreak into 4 groups as below:Group 1: The population group.Group 2 to 4: The sample sub-groupThe population group will have 3
372、 of their members throwing a single dices 60 times each. A total of 180 throws will be recorded 和this data will be the population data.Each sample sub-group will have 3 of their members throwing 5 dices at one time, 和collect the sum 和average value of the particular throw. Each member is to conduct 2
373、0 throws 和obtain the sample mean of each throw. At the end of the exercise, a total of 180 sample means will be collected from the 3 sub-groups.From the arrived data, plot the histogram 和comment on the distribution of both the population 和the samplings.208点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http
374、:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘The finite population multiplierPreviously we say that:This equation however applies only when the population is infinite or relatively large when compare to the sample size. In the case when the population is fi
375、nite or relatively small when compare to the sample size, standard error is calculated as:Finite Population MultiplierFinite population multiplier with respect to population 和和sample sizeRule of thumbsThe finite population multiplier need only be included if population size to sample size ratio is l
376、ess than 25.209点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Confidence Interval“Point estimates”A point estimate is a single number that is used to estimate an unknown population parameter.“实例of point estimates”Sa
377、mple mean, x as the estimator of the population mean, m.Sample 标准偏差, S as the estimator of the population 标准偏差, .210点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘What does 95% confidence intervals means ?It defines
378、 95% of the time, the average value of a random sampling will fall within a value range which is +/- 1.96 standard error from the sample mean.为什么1.96 standard error ?Referring to the standardized normal distribution table, when z = 1.96, the associated probability is 0.975 (or 97.5%) as below:But th
379、is is a 2 tails interval (i.e. +/- 1.96), hence we need to minus off another 2.5% from the other end, giving a total coverage of 95%.2.5% uncovered at one end+1.962.5% uncovered at another end-1.96211点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，
380、压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Equation for computing confidence intervalsFor continuous data:集中的數據For discrete data:離散的數據212点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Confidence interval for continuous data集中的
381、信賴區間的數據A large disk drive manufacturerneeds an estimate of themean life it can expect from the magnetic media by reciprocally switching its digital state at 1MHz frequency. The development team has determined previously that the variance of the population life is 36 months, and had conducted a relia
382、bility testing for 100 samples, collecting data of its useful life as below:有一個大型的軟驅制造廠必須評估一個From the above data, what is the 95% confidence interval for the useful mean life of the magnetic media in a disk drive ? What does this mean ?213点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供
383、管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Confidence interval for continuous data (cont)Applying the confidence intervals equation:Upper confidence limit = 27.75 + 1.96 (0.6) = 28.926Lower confidence limit = 27.75 1.96 (0.6) = 26.574From the sample data given,Sample size
384、, n= 100Mean=(Sum of useful life) / 100=2775 / 100=27.75 monthsVariance, 2=36 months标准偏差标准偏差, =6 monthsStandard error, x= 6 / 10=0.6As such, there is 95% confidence level that the average useful life of the magnetic media to fall between 26.574 和28.926 months.214点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http
385、:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Confidence interval for discrete dataBreak into 4 or 5 teams, combined all the M&Ms in one team 和calculate the confidence intervals for each color type, using below table.Combine all the data from the 4 te
386、ams, what are the changes to the confidence intervals ?215点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Determine the sample size for confidence intervals (continuous data)GivenSample mean = 21S = 6 What is the sam
387、ple size required, such that there is a 95% confidence level that the average value will fall within +/- 1.176 from its mean ?Ans:Applying the equation,n = (1.96 x 6) / 1.1762 = (10) 2 = 100The sample size must be 100.216点同职场助手频道点同职场助手频道 (http:/(http:/或或http:/)http:/)海量资料下载海量资料下载提供管理培训讲座光盘，提供管理培训讲座光
388、盘，VCD5VCD5元元/ /盘，压缩盘，压缩DVDDVD光盘光盘1010元起，非刻录光盘元起，非刻录光盘Determine the sample size for confidence intervals (discrete data)Givenp = 0.4 (Proportion agree)q = 0.6 (Proportion not agree) What is the sample size required, such that there is a 99% confidence level that the proportion agree will fall within +/- 0.146 from p ?Ans:Applying the equation,n = (2.58) 2 (0.4)(0. 6) / (0.146)2 = 74.95 = 75The sample size must be 75.217
