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1、POPULATION AGING IN CHINA中国人口老化中国人口老化ZengYi曾曾毅毅CenterforStudyofAgingandHumanDevelopment,DukeUniversityCenterforHealthyAgingandFamilyStudies/ChinaCenterforEconomicResearch,PekingUniversityU.N.Projection:RAPIDPROCESSOFPOPULATIONAGINGINCHINA联合国的预测联合国的预测:中国人口快速老龄化中国人口快速老龄化Much Faster Increase in Proport
2、ion of Elderly Persons than in Developed Countries中国老年人口占总人口的比例增长速度大大快于发达国家中国老年人口占总人口的比例增长速度大大快于发达国家Figure1.NumberofYearsItTakesfortheElderlyPopulationAged65+toIncreasefrom10%to20%65+岁老人占总人口比例从岁老人占总人口比例从10%增加到增加到20%的年数的年数 Extremely Rapid Increase of “Oldest Old” Persons 高龄老人增长速度更快 Figure2.Internatio
3、nalcomparisonofaverageannualincreaserates(%)ofelderlypopulations老年人口年增长率的国际比较老年人口年增长率的国际比较中国家庭人口与老龄化预测中国家庭人口与老龄化预测Projectionoffamilyhouseholds,elderlylivingarrangementsandpopulationaging,usingProFamyMediumfertilityscenarioassumptions中生育率假定方案中生育率假定方案:（1）In2000,ruralTFRwas1.9,UrbanTFRwas1.15,andoveral
4、lTFRwas1.63;2000年农村、城镇时期总和生育率分别为年农村、城镇时期总和生育率分别为1.9与与1.15，城乡合一为，城乡合一为1.63.（2）In2012-2030,assumecohortlife-timeTFRwillbe2.27and1.8inruralandurbanareas,respectively.2012-2030年期间年期间,假定农村、城镇队列终生总和生育率分别为假定农村、城镇队列终生总和生育率分别为2.27与与1.8。(3)Intheperiodof2012-2030,meanageat1st,2ndand3rdbirthswillincrease0.9year
5、-old,i.e.increasing0.05year-oldperyear,andthustheperiodTFRwillbereducedby5%ascomparedtocohortTFR,accordingtoBongaarts-Feneeymethod-PeriodTFRwillbe2.16and1.71inruralandurbanarea.假定假定2012-2030年这年这18年内，一孩、二孩和三孩平均生育年龄分别增加年内，一孩、二孩和三孩平均生育年龄分别增加0.9岁岁,平均每年增加平均每年增加0.05岁。时期总和生育率减少岁。时期总和生育率减少5%,农村、城镇分别为农村、城镇分别
6、为2.16和和1.71(4)Intheperiod2035-2050,noincreaseinmeanageatchildbearing,andthustheperiodandcohortTFRwillbethesame:2.27and1.8inruralandurbanareas,respectively.2035-2050年生育年龄不再增加，时期总和生育率与队列终生总和生育率相同年生育年龄不再增加，时期总和生育率与队列终生总和生育率相同,农村、城镇分别为农村、城镇分别为2.27和和1.8Weassume%ofurbanpopulationwillbe36%,55%and75%in2000,
7、2020,and2050,respectively;Wealsoassumetheagedistributionoftherural-urbanmigrantswillbethesameasthatobservedinthe2000census.假定假定2020年与年与2050年城镇人口比例为年城镇人口比例为55%与与75%（2000年为年为36%），并假定），并假定2000-2050年农村向城镇迁移人口年龄分布与年农村向城镇迁移人口年龄分布与2000年年人口普查得到的模式相同。人口普查得到的模式相同。20002012203020352050PeriodTFR城乡合一时期总和生育率城乡合一时期
8、总和生育率1.631.951.881.961.92WeightedaverageTFRofrural-urbancombined(using%ofruralandurbanasweights)城乡合一总和生育率假定城乡合一总和生育率假定Note:figuresintheparenthesisaretheTFRadjustedfortheeffectsofincreasingmeanageatbirth,byBongaarts-Feeneymethod括号中的数字是排除生育年龄增加影响之后的总和生育率。括号中的数字是排除生育年龄增加影响之后的总和生育率。Mediummortalityassump
9、tionisthesameasourpreviousworkwhichisverysimilartothemediumassumptionmadebyU.N.andotherscholars.中死亡率方案假定与我们以前做的相同，中死亡率方案假定与我们以前做的相同，与联合国及其他学者的中死亡率方案十分接近。与联合国及其他学者的中死亡率方案十分接近。ThemediumfertilityprojectionisNOTpolicyprediction,anditisjustmyscholarlyanalysistoprojectthelikelyprofileofpopulationaging,fam
10、ilyhouseholds,andelderlylivingarrangements,undermediumfertilityassumption.我们这里简要报告的中生育率方案完全是本人对未来人口老龄化大致趋势我们这里简要报告的中生育率方案完全是本人对未来人口老龄化大致趋势预测模拟的学术研究初步成果。预测模拟的学术研究初步成果。Necessity for establishing old age insuranceprograminRuralareasinChina建立农村储备积累式社会养老保险制度的必要性。建立农村储备积累式社会养老保险制度的必要性。“Havingasonforoldage
11、support”isoneofthemaincausesofillegal sex determination before delivery, sex-selective abortion,maltreatment,abandonment,andfemaleinfanticide.很很多多农农民民利利用用B超超进进行行非非法法性性别别鉴鉴定定，不不生生男男孩孩不不罢罢休休的的最最主主要要原因之一是原因之一是“养儿防老养儿防老”。(1)Rapid Increase of % and Huge Number of Elderly in China 快速的老年人口增长率与庞大的老年人口数量快速的老
12、年人口增长率与庞大的老年人口数量(2) Aging Problems will be More Serious in Rural Areas than that in Urban Areas农村地区的老龄化问题将比城市地区更严重。农村地区的老龄化问题将比城市地区更严重。The rural baby boomers born in 1950s and 1960s likelyhavetwochildrenoronlyonechild.Whentheybecomeoldoroldestold,manyoftheirchildrenleftvillages;someoftheirchildrenwi
13、llbeelderlyorgettingold.农农村村出出生生高高峰峰队队列列有有两两个个或或仅仅有有一一个个孩孩子子。当当他他们们步步入入老老年年或或高高龄龄阶阶段段，他他们们的的孩孩子子很很多多已已经经离离开开农农村村，还还有有一一部部分分高高龄老人的子女也已经进入老年。龄老人的子女也已经进入老年。ItisnotfeasiblefortheChineseelderlytoentirelyrelyontheirchildrenandfamilyforoldagesupportinbothruralandurbanareas.无无论论在在农农村村还还是是城城市市，中中国国老老年年人人想想完完
14、全全依依赖赖他他们们的的子子女女和家庭养老是不可行的。和家庭养老是不可行的。OldAgeInsurancePrograminRuralAreasisExtremelyImportantforSustainableDevelopmentinChina.农村养老保险制度对中国的可持续发展极为重要农村养老保险制度对中国的可持续发展极为重要Provides basic right and elementary life quality to rural elderly: equality and stability of the society. 考虑到农村老人的基本权利和生活质量：社会的平等与稳定。
15、考虑到农村老人的基本权利和生活质量：社会的平等与稳定。Can effectively reduce son-preference, reduce sex-selective abortions and reverse the extremely dangerous trend of increasing sex ratio at birth. 可可以以有有效效的的减减少少儿儿子子偏偏好好，减减少少基基于于性性别别选选择择的的人人工工流流产产，扭扭转转出生性别比不断增长的危险趋势。出生性别比不断增长的危险趋势。ChineseLongitudinalHealthyLongevityStudy(CL
16、HLS)Thetotalsamplesizein1998and2000was8,959and11,161oldest-oldaged80+;Thetotalsamplesizesin2002and2005areabout20,000interviewees,respectively,includingoldest-old(focus),youngerelderly(asacomparisongroup)andeldersadultchildren(intergenerationalrelationsandhealthylongevity).TheCLHLSsurveyswereconducte
17、dinrandomlyselectedhalfofthecountiesandcitiesof22provincesoutof31provincesin1998,2000,2002, and 2005 covering 85% of total population.Totallinginthe1998,2000,2002,2005fourwaves,face-to-faceinterviewswereconductedwith:10,879aged100+;13,985aged90-99;16,505aged80-89;9,731aged65-79Ateachwave,thelongitud
18、inalsurvivorswerere-interviewed,andthedeceasedintervieweeswerereplacedbyadditionalparticipants.In the 2000, 2002, 2005 follow-up waves, dataonmortalityandhealthstatusbeforedyingforthe12,136eldersaged65-112whodiedbetweenthewaveswerecollectedininterviewswithaclosefamilymemberofthedeceased.Wealsointerv
19、iewed(withfollowing-up)4,478elderlyintervieweeschildrenaged35-65in2002and2005. The1998baseline,2000and2002follow-upCLHLSdatasetshavebeendistributedtonational&internationalresearchcommunities;2005datasetswillbedistributedinOct.2007,asplanned:http:/ http:/www.pubpol.duke.edu/centers/ppa/Email contacts
20、: at Peking Universitygudananduke.edu at Duke UniversityWeareverypleasedthatChinaHRSisdevelopingso nicely, and the Chinese Healthy LongevityStudy which focuses on oldest-old (withcomparativegroupsofyoungerelderly)willbea good complement to China HRS, and weshould worktogetherclosely,especiallyChinaHRSandCLHLSarebothhomedatCCER!Thank You!Thank You!
