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1、 Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 1Dr. Ka-fu WongECON1003Analysis of Economic Data Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 2lGOALS1.Survey Time2.Introduce briefly 1.Teaching team2.A learning model and teaching philosophy3.Course features4.Textbook5.Course requirements6.Office hours7.What will be covered in this course3.Firs
2、t week assignmentAn Introduction to ECON1003An Introduction to ECON1003 Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 3Time for survey (10-15 minutes)The survey helps us understand you better. The results will also be used as illustrative examples in class. Personal information such as names and student ID will be kept s
3、trictly confidential. This is not a quiz, but please treat this survey as a quiz. Do not talk to your classmates. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 4The teaching teamInstructor:Miss Alice LEEDr. Ka-fu WONGhttp:/kafuwong.econ.hku.hkTeaching Assistant: Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 5A learning modelWhat I hear, I for
4、get.What I hear and see, I remember a little.What I hear, see and ask questions about or discuss, I begin to understand. When I hear, see, discuss and do, I acquire as knowledge and skill.What I teach to another, I master. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 6A learning modelTo hear and see:To ask questions abo
5、ut or discuss:To do:To teach to another:Please attend the lectures and tutorials.Please actively participate in lectures and tutorials. Discuss with your classmate, TA and instructor.Projects / Presentations / Project reports / Labs / Homework assignments.Teach your parents and friends who do not kn
6、ow much about Statistics. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 7Teaching philosophyGiven that students are willing to put in efforts, Learning should not be difficult.Learning should be enjoyable. That is why we have labs and projects.What we learn can be use to understand and analyze real-world issues. The inst
7、ructor and the TA are here to help you.If we enjoy what we are doing and learning, and can apply what we learn to real-world issues, we will learn faster and do much better. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 8Course features that facilitate learning3. Downloadable Powerpoint notes:1. Class website:To remind s
8、tudents about deadlines and to link students to relevant materials.Save notes-jotting time. Help students focus more on the explanations in lecture.2. Lecture in Powerpoint format:Allow us to use our lecture time more effectively and cover slightly more materials and examples. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1
9、- 9Course features that facilitate learning4. Labs in class and tutorials :Aim to make learning more enjoyable and memorable.5. Projects / presentations / project reports:Help students reinforce their learning experience and gain other valuable skills.6. Quizzes in class:Help students reinforce thei
10、r learning experience.7. Electronic tutorials: econ1003-helpkafuwong.econ.hku.hkAllow us to help students around the clock. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 10TextbooknLectures will be based on Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics, written by Douglas A. Lind, William G. Marchal and Robert D. Maso
11、n: Irwin- McGraw-Hill Book Company, 11th edition, 2001. nThe book comes with a CD-ROM containing powerpoint lecture notes, Excel add-on, self-testing quiz, and a software of Visual Statistics. nFor projects and lab assignments, you will need to use the Excel add-on. nFor review, you are advised to u
12、se the self-testing quiz. nFor visual illustration of statistical concepts, you will find the software Visual Statistics useful. nIn short, you will need a copy of the textbook. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 11Course RequirementsAttendanceReview exercisesProjectsQuizzesFinal examination0%0%30%40%30% Ka-fu
13、 Wong 2003Intro 1- 12Attendance0%You are required to attend all lectures and tutorials. Attendance will be taken at lectures and tutorials. When you miss more than two lectures and tutorials, our TA will call to check why you have been missing.This mechanism aims to help, not to punish students.Gene
14、rally, students who skip lectures and tutorials do poorly in the course. We want to make sure that students get a solid training in Statistics. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 13Review exercises0%We will hand out review exercises weekly: Please do not hand them in. The TA will not grade them. However, our T
15、A will provide solutions. Advice: Try to work on the problems by yourself. Whenever you have trouble getting the correct answers, discuss with your classmates, consult your TA and your instructor, in that order.At least 80% of the quizzes questions will be similar to the review exercises. Ka-fu Wong
16、 2003Intro 1- 14Projects30%The project is intended to expose you to the use of statistics in real problems of your choice. The presentations and project reports also help improve and test our understanding of the subject. . It allows us to sharpen our skills in statistical analysis, oral presentatio
17、ns, written presentations, and teamwork. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 15Projects30%nStudents will be randomly assigned into groups of two to work on two projects. The team as a whole is responsible for the project analysis and implementation.nIndividual team members take turns writing the project reports
18、 and giving the presentations. The person who gives the oral report cannot be the person who authors the written report.nThus each project receives three grades, an analysis grade that is given to every team member, a writing grade that is given to the reports author, and a presentation grade that i
19、s given to the presenter. Team work: Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 16Projects30%nThese presentations will be Powerpoint based. nPlease hand in a softcopy of your Powerpoint file, via email.nPresentation will be video-recorded so that presenters has a chance to see their own performance. nYour performance
20、will be graded by your peers and TA. nThe instructor will randomly check the grading and videos to make sure that the grading has been fair.nIn case of grade disputes, we can sit down to view the tape together.Five-minute Presentations: Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 17Projects30%nNo more than five pages.n
21、Please hand in a softcopy of your report, via email.nAll papers should be easy to read, i.e. typed (word processed) in a standard 12pt font with reasonable margins and 1.5 to double spaced. nWhen writing up the project, in addition to your discussion of results, you should include a clear descriptio
22、n of the experiment, including how the data was collected, and a summary of steps of your analysis. The collected data and questionnaire (if any) should be included in a data appendix. nThe TA (and possibly your peers) will be grading it. nThe instructor will randomly check the grading to make sure
23、that the grading has been fair.Three to five page Written reports: Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 18Projects30%nTwo types of projects. nType A will involve simple plots of data, summary statistics, and analysis in the first half of the semester.nType B will involve estimating the relationship among variabl
24、es and testing their significance in the second half of the semester.nThe team is free to choose among a pool of projects (supplied by the instructor, to be announced later). You are encouraged to choose topics outside this pool. However, if you have different project topics, you must get approval f
25、rom your instructor. Project topics: Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 19Projects30%1.Visit at least 30 foreign exchange shops (including banks). Record the buy and sell exchange rate of RMB to HK dollars. Based on simple plots and summary statistics, are the buy and sell spread (difference between buy and se
26、ll price) different between bank and non-bank foreign exchange shops.2.Visit the library and ask the librarian (reference counter) to help locate the electronic data series of HK stock prices. Collect the prices of two stocks, one over 10 dollars and one below 10 dollars. Compute their mean and stan
27、dard deviations of daily percentage change in prices. Based on the plots and these summary statistics, which stock is more risky? Which stock is more profitable to hold? 3.Randomly ask 50 HKU students the average amount of time per week they spent on studying in the semester before the survey. Summa
28、rize the data in a plot. Compute the means and standard deviations. Ask your friends from different local universities the same question. Are they within the two standard deviations from the mean at HKU?Examples of Type A Project topics: Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 20Projects30%4.Find the all the Mark-S
29、ix Jackpot in year 2001 and 2002 (available from on-line). Summarize the data with a plot. Compute the mean of the Jackpot for 2001 and 2002. Are the mean of 2002 within the two standard deviations of 2001? And vice versa? 5.Visit at least 30 shops selling vegetables from two different districts. In
30、clude at least 10 shops from each district. Record the price of selected vegetable. Summarize the data with plots. Compute their means and standard deviations. Is the mean of the first district within two standard deviations of the second district? And vice versa?6.Follow at least 30 policemen. Reco
31、rd the time taken before the policemen stop and question you. Summarize the data with a plot. Compute the mean and standard deviation. Follow a policewoman. Record the time taken before the policewoman stops and questions you. Is policewomans time within the two standard deviations of the policemens
32、?Examples of Type A Project topics: Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 21Projects30%1.Visit at least 30 shops selling vegetables from two different districts. Include at least 10 shops from each district. Buy one pound of vegetable from each shop. Record the selling price, the sellers sex and your guess of his
33、 /her age. Weight the vegetables at home. Compute the deviation of the weights from one pound. Is there a relationship between the deviations and the selling price, the sellers sex and age?2.Visit at least 30 bakery shops. Record the price of “pineapple” and “chicken tail”. Also record whether they
34、have a policy of price reduction after certain hour. Is there a relationship between the “normal price” and the price reduction policy and whether the bakery is a chain store? (For interest: ask the shopkeepers what they do with the unsold bread.)Examples of Type B Project topics: Ka-fu Wong 2003Int
35、ro 1- 22Projects30%1.You may be confused at this stage but no need to worry.2.We will have two lectures demonstrating what we expect, in great details. One lecture for type A projects, one for type B.3.We will discuss the guidelines of grading the projects. Being a grader yourself, you will clearly
36、know what everyone expect.4.We will help develop interesting topics with you.Confused? Worried? Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 23Quizzes40%The coverage of quizzes is cumulative, i.e., they cover all course materials up to the quiz date but generally will focus on the last review exercise set. The quizzes w
37、ill be held in biweekly on Fridays. 14/2, 28/2, 14/3, 4/4, 25/4, 9/5The tests aim at testing how well you have learned so far. If you do badly in the quizzes, you may be asked to talk to our TA or the instructor. Together we try to figure out the things we can do to improve your performance. The con
38、versation is to discover problem before its too late. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 24Final Examination40%Final examination is similar to quizzes. The coverage of final examination is cumulative, i.e., they cover all course materials up to the quiz date. Generally, if you have done your work for all the q
39、uizzes, you should do well in the final examination. Review session will be given before the final examination. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 25Office hoursInstructor:Miss Alice LEEDr. Ka-fu WONGTeaching Assistant:Monday, Wednesday 2:00-3:00p.m., or by appointment, or by email. Open door policyTo be annou
40、nced.May be reached by appointment, or by email. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 26No guarantee of passingThe instructor and our TA are committed to help you learn and do well in this course. The chance of failing this course should be small.The rest depends on you. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 27CoveragenWe wil
41、l try to cover up to simple linear regressions.nIf time permits, we will cover some non-parametric statistics. Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 28First week assignmentnBuy a copy of the Text and Read Chapter 1. nFind and search through the class website. nDo some causal reading of nCohn, Victor (1989): News
42、& Numbers: A guide to reporting statistical claims and controversies in health and other fields, Iowa State University Press. nSpirer, Herbert F., Louise Spirer, and A.J. Jaffe (1998): Misused Statistics, Marcel Dekker, Inc. nGallery of Data Visualization: The Best and Worst of Statistical Graphics http:/www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gallery/ Ka-fu Wong 2003Intro 1- 29- END -An Introduction to ECON1003An Introduction to ECON1003
