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1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter Stanger北斗成功社区北斗成功社区 BeiDouW成功/励志/财经/职场/创业/管理/理财/修身 助您解决成长中的问题不知道您是否有这种感觉：1.网络上太多娱乐的内容，很少学习资料和教育资源，这样只会在享乐中沉迷下去，难以成长，互联网和电脑的意义仅在于娱乐吗？2.资料虽难得，但是整理更难，网上的教育资料大部份都很乱，不好的或不够好的资料看了令人沮丧，令人失去信心，令人失去学习的兴趣！3.能够稳定下载的地方太难找，要么连接无效，要么收费，要么内
2、部分享，要么需要配合各种高技术手段.可能花了很多时间在找寻，最后还是一无所获.还不快来看看？Success is here!C O N S U L T I N G波士顿互联网战略资料-2-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmE-COMMERCE IS DEAD “E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce”- The Industry Standard, April 2000 “Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”-F, April 2000 “Can
3、you build a brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”-Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read “The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest l
4、iving dead the public markets have ever seen.”-Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson-3-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems “If you cant generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I dont think any
5、one will survive. They are all gone.”-4-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONGTravelocityBExpediaDEPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4B-5-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmIS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794-6-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHE BUMPY RIDE O
6、F ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860 - 18901895 - 1925-7-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmFUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cottonEngland 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-20191019151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95L
7、ower processing costs . with increased throughput .Fiber capacityTime1050104103102 and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of connectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+ 2cF+ 3cF+ 4cF+ 5cF+ 6cF+ 7cF+ 8cF+ 9cF+ 10cF+ ncValue,
8、 costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connections lower storage costs .$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize (GB)Cost ($/MB)-8-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmLONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccount manage
9、mentBillingRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailRetailNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesWholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesNetwork management/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDev
10、elopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales & marketingIncreased development costsRole of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales & marketingAcademic labsBiotech firmsContract research organizationsCo
11、ntractmfrsPBMsJVs/licensingELECTRIC UTILITIESCOMPUTER INDUSTRYAT&T, MCI and Sprint fragmented radicallyMicroprocessors, integrated circuits, memory chipsComputersOperating systemsApplications softwareMarketing, sales, and distributionCommon standardsTime based competition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixCom
12、paqDellApplePackard BellIBMDOS and WindowsUNIXMac OSOS/2Microsoft OfficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSuperstoresOn-lineMail orderNeXtIBM , Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackward integration to reduce riskForward integration to open supply channelsScale through focusing on huge po
13、wer plantsSynergy through bundling capabilities of general trading and energy businessNew services for the customerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNational Power (UK)Electrobel (Belgium)RWE (Germany)Norsk Kraftmegling (Norway)EnronUnited Utilities (UK)South-ernWaterEastern Elect-ricity (UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en
14、(Ger-many)1990199519851990Statkraft (Norway)Oslo Energi (Norway)EVO (Germany)IVO (Finland)MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES -9-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmMASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example CameraFilmEquipmentPaper,
15、chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/ enlargeStore/ display Share with othersProcessingAnalog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominateMajor players (2000 U.S. market share)CanonNikonOlympusMinoltaKodakFujiKodak (66%)FujiKodak (Qualex) (40%)FujiPhotohutsAlbum manufacturersFrame manufacturersMail servicesdisposa
16、blesCameraManipulationCropAlter pixelsPrinterPaper, inkReprint/ enlargeStore/displayShare with othersProcessing (at home)Digital value chain HP, Sony and others well-positionedMajor players (2000 U.S. market share)Sony (35%)HP (19%)Olympus (13%)Kodak (12%)HP (70%)LexmarkEpsonHPLexmarkEpsonKodakPCIBM
17、 microdriveSonyCompact FlashE-mail postingPersonal Web siteZingShutterflySnapfishOfotoOthersAdobe (Photoshop)Standard with camera and available free online-10-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmEXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES65.117.8Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0, S
18、hop.org surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group; SEC filings; Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data; industry association reports; analyst reportsNote: Excludes financial brokerage11.515.2North American Business-to-Consumer Revenues ($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Online channel 10% share i
19、n several categories-11-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmCATALOGUERS ARE WINNING EBIT Margin in % of Revenues19992000Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0, 4.0; Shop.org Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group-12-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmADVANTAGE INCUMBENTSOnline RetailingDsMark
20、etplacesCLECsCataloguersGE, Big 3ILECs/IXCsB2BTelecom-13-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmRENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALSIPO valueCash flowGrowth = valueProfitable growth = valueCustomer acquisitionSegmentationInternet timeCompetitive advantage-14-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHE VAST MAJORITY OF CHAN
21、GE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEADIllustrative view of transforming forces, Circa 2010Technology) GlobalizationDeregulationElectroniccommerceSource: BCG analysisDeregulationandglobalizationindex(1999=100)Technology andelectroniccommerce index(1999=100)-15-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmA PERSPECTIVE ON
22、 OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!Asset turns(sales/ assets)Cash flow margin in % of sales(%)RetailConstruction MachineryAutomobileChemicalsUtilitiesReal EstateAirlineAuto partsAerospaceTelecomSource: BCG Analysis-16-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmA PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!AccessFibreWirelessSatelliteAsset productivity focuse-Procuremente-SalesMargin focusOpportunity SpaceSource: BCG Analysis
