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1、BuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellSellBuyDeutsche BankMarkets ResearchAsiaChinaPropertyPropertyIndustryChina PropertyDate8 October 2012Industry UpdateTony TsangJason Ching, CFATaking a deeper look at property salesin Golden WeekGolden Week sales down 71% WoW in 19 key citiesAccording to initial data fr
2、om Soufun, contracted sales (in sqm) in 19 key citiesshowed a 9% YoY growth. However, compared with the week before GoldenWeek (24-30 Sept, 2012), contracted sales were down by more than 70%WoW. While we recognize that preliminary sales data is subject to furtherrevision, the rather muted condition
3、of the property market is a reality now.Initial feedback from major developers shows similar trend in Golden WeekBased on initial feedback from 13 developers that we surveyed, mostdevelopers said that Golden Week is becoming more like normal holidays,rather than the peak season of earlier years. Dev
4、elopers believe consumers aremore mature these days and are becoming less likely to concentrate homepurchase decisions during Golden Week, but developers are now adopting amore flexible sales strategy and relying less on the Sept/Oct or Autumn tradefairs to boost sales. However, most developers stil
5、l expect stable sales/sell-through rates in Golden Week/October, compared with the sales performancein September.Centaline Golden Week sales down 70% WoW in 54 citiesResearch Analyst Research Analyst(+852) 2203 6256 (+852) 2203 Top picksCOLI (0688.HK),HKD19.80China Resources Land(1109.HK),HKD17.14C
6、hina Ovs Grand Oceans(0081.HK),HKD8.00Country Garden Holdings(2007.HK),HKD2.98Guangzhou R&F Prop (2777.HK),HKD8.89Companies FeaturedPOLY PROPERTY (0119.HK),HKD4.22Guangzhou R&F Prop (2777.HK),HKD8.89Kaisa (1638.HK),HKD1.42Sino Ocean (3377.HK),HKD4.49Yanlord Land (YNLG.SI),SGD1.24C C Land (1224.HK),H
7、KD1.71Agile Property (3383.HK),HKD8.88According to preliminary sales data compiled by Centaline, primary sales in 54major cities totaled 16,000 units during the Golden Week holiday, or a sizeabledecline of about 70% WoW from 54,000 units contracted during the weekbefore the Golden Week holiday. Whil
8、e Centaline admitted that the preliminarysales data is subject to further revision as data in some cities is yet to beavailable, the rather muted condition of the property market is a reality now.Lack of catalysts from sales in the near termIn our view, as most people in China were on holiday, there
9、 could be somedelays in property registrations, so the sales details available may not be tellingthe true picture. In addition, with the free toll road access offered in the GoldenWeek, a lot more people have been travelling during the holidays, and hencefew are looking at properties. Furthermore, w
10、ith developers already achievinga high percentage of their full-year sales targets, they may not be that activeon sales for the rest of this year. Overall, we believe property sales in Octoberare unlikely to show a significant pickup versus September.Fundamentals have improved: be selectiveThe China
11、 property sector currently trades at a 53% NAV discount, 7.5x P/E,and 0.9x P/B, all close to or below the “-1SD” level of the historical ranges(since 2009, taking out the bull market data points in 2006-07). With improvingfundamentals, we expect more mean-reversions in valuations of the Chinapropert
12、y stocks. In addition to long-term leaders such as COLI, CR Land, andCOGO, we recommend picking up developers with moderately high netgearing/cheap valuations and/or accelerating sales momentum, such asCountry Garden, R&F and KWG. As a hedge, we recommend selling SinoOcean and Yanlord. We derive our
13、 target prices from NAV and DCF. Key risks:widespread financial distress and a sharp deterioration in the global economy._Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,
14、Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this rep
15、ort.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.8 October 2012PropertyChina PropertyGolden Week sales not sogoldenGolden Week sales down 71% WoW in 19 key citie
16、sAccording to initial data from Soufun, contracted sales (in sqm) in 19 key cities showeda 9% YoY growth. However, compared with the week before Golden Week (24-30 Sept.2012), contracted sales were down by more than 70% WoW. While we recognize thatpreliminary sales data is subject to further revisio
17、n, the rather muted condition of theproperty market is a reality now. Data from other sources such as Centaline (showed insubsequent section of this report) also shows a similar WoW declining trend.Figure 1: Golden Weeks sales in key cities (ksqm)Oct1-7,2012Oct1-7,2011YoYChange24-30Sep12WoWChangeBei
18、jingShanghaiShenzhenNanjingChengduFuzhouSuzhouQingdaoXiamenGuiyangDongguanHuizhouChongqingWuhanKunmingNingboXuzhouYangzhouLianyungang47.376.530.150.445.831.560.383.7149.380.130.111.592.3108.028.48.163.817.742.294.657.020.821.347.417.570.469.924.653.496.964.889.7144.311.45.147.16.131.3-50%34%45%137%-
19、3%80%-14%20%507%50%-69%-82%3%-25%149%59%35%190%35%417.8234.163.3185.3195.379.4266.7194.3152.5183.8110.798.9610.2198.7185.8136.9262.229.880.4-89%-67%-52%-73%-77%-60%-77%-57%-2%-56%-73%-88%-85%-46%-85%-94%-76%-41%-48%Average9%-71%Source: Soufun, Deutsche BankInitial feedback from 13 developers shows s
20、imilar trend in Golden WeekBased on the initial feedback from 13 developers that we surveyed, most developerssaid the Golden Week is becoming more like normal holidays, instead of the propertysales peak season in earlier years. On the one hand, developers believe consumers aremore mature these days
21、and less likely to concentrate their home purchase decisions inthe Golden Week. On the other hand, developers are now adopting a more flexible salesstrategy, instead of relying on the peak selling season or the Autumn trade fairs toboost sales. Having said that, most developers still expect stable s
22、ales/sell-throughrates in the Golden Week/October, compared with the sales performance in September.Page 2Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongCOLICOGO8 October 2012PropertyChina PropertyFigure 2: Developers feedback on September/Golden Week salesCompanyStock code0688.HKSeptember salesSell-through rate is quit
23、e stable compared with the earliermonths of 2H12Golden Week salesGolden Week is not the market focus these days asconsumers have become more mature these days anddevelopers are not relying on this period to boost sales.During the Golden Week, the sell-through rate is quitestable compared with the ea
24、rlier months of 2H12.0081.HKSell-through rate is quite stable compared with the earliermonths of 2H12Golden Week is not the market focus these days asconsumers have become more mature these days anddevelopers are not relying on this period to boost sales.During the Golden Week, the sell-through rate
25、 is quitestable compared with the earlier months of 2H12China VankeCR LandC. Garden000002.SZ1109.HK2007.HKBetter than July and AugustRmb3.5-4bnSlightly better MoM, as some major launches wereBetter YoY and better than the best week in SeptemberMajor projects have been received quite well this yearde
26、layed to the Golden Week to two weeks after thatEvergrande3333.HKRmb8bnBetter YoYR&F2777.HKStable sales compared with previous months due to lack of Sales should be better YoY, even though the companynew launches during the month. However, the companybelieves more people went on a holiday due to the
27、 freebelieves major focus will be in October, with morehighway policy in China this yearlaunches plannedAgile3383.HKBetter MoMNo exact data yet, but this year is better in terms of foottraffic in show flats and buyers sentiment. No majorlaunch during the Golden WeekSino-oceanGreentown3377.HK3900.HKS
28、table MoM5bn presales, better MoMSubscription is better YoYApproximately Rmb100m/day, better YoY, but has slowedcompared with the first week of SeptemberPoly Property0119.HKStable/slightly better MoMBelieves sales should be quite evenly spread across theweeks in October, and it is not really focusin
29、g to push theGolden Week salesSunac1918.HKRmb3bnSales momentum is stable better MoM and definitelybetter YoY. October sales is likely better MoMKaisa1638.HKRmb1.6bnGolden Week sales are not the market focus these days.Initial evidence suggests volume in Shenzhen is not activeduring the Golden Week t
30、his yearSource: Company, Deutsche BankLack of catalysts from sales in the near termIn our view, as most people in China were on holiday, there could be some delays inproperty registrations, and so the sales data available may not be telling the truepicture. In addition, with the free toll road acces
31、s offered in the Golden Week, a lotmore people were travelling during the holidays, and hence fewer were looking atproperties. Furthermore, with developers already achieving a high percentage of theirfull-year sales targets, they may not be that active on sales for the rest of this year.Overall, we
32、believe property sales in October are unlikely to show a significant pickupversus September.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 38 October 2012PropertyChina PropertyCentaline Golden Week sales down 70% WoW in 54 citiesAccording to preliminary sales data compiled by Centaline, primary sales in 54 majorcit
33、ies totaled 16,000 units during the Golden Week holiday, or a sizeable decline ofsome 70% WoW from 54,000 units contracted during the week before the GoldenWeek holiday. While Centaline admitted that the preliminary sales data is subject tofurther revision as data in some cities is yet to be availab
34、le, the rather muted conditionof the property market is a reality now.Transaction volumes in Tier-1 cities not goodIn particular, secondary sales volume in Beijing in the 3-day period prior to the NationalDay holiday was registered at 137 units, a notable decline from a typical day over thepast mont
35、h. According to 5i5j, a major property agent in Beijing, the property-viewing-hit rate (the percentage of property visits that finally turned into successful transactions)in this Golden Week for the secondary market in Beijing has also fallen to a record lowversus the past Golden Week holidays, refl
36、ecting strong “wait-and-see” attitudesamong prospective homebuyers. For other cities, while the pedestrian flow in theShanghai Autumn Property Exhibition was strong, actual sales volumes were rathersluggish. In Guangzhou, total volume in the Golden Week (Sept 30 Oct 3) was 490units, a decline of 36%
37、 YoY from 272 units year ago.Tier-2/3 cities also saw no pickupMeanwhile, according to Centaline, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Jinan, Wuhan, Kunming,Xuzhou and Chongzhou also saw marked YoY decline in sales during the Golden Week.Centaline believes that the availability of mortgage credit is still the key ele
38、ment forproperty prices. In particular, if there is no apparent easing in the availability of credit in4Q, sales are expected to remain only steady for the rest of 2012.YoY growth in sales should not be relevantSome market participants highlighted that there was moderate YoY growth in sales yet, in
39、our view, that should be expected as last years sales volumes were on a lowbase. On the other hand, most cities showed declines versus sales in the week beforethe Golden Week holiday.Other anecdotal reports suggest similar muted sales responseduring Golden WeekThe October National Day Golden Week (S
40、ep 30- Oct 7) Holiday has just passed, andbased on the latest media reports (like Hexun, Sina, Baidu, JRJ.com) available, therewere no meaningful pickup in sales during the holiday versus the period before theholidays, giving initial evidences that, like September, sales in October might showmuch pi
41、ckup versus the August levels.Sales updates of key citiesIn Beijing, 212 units were sold in the secondary market during the first 7 days of GoldenWeek holidays (until Oct 6), up 61.8% YoY, but were down significantly versus thenormal days before the holiday.In Guangzhou, there were 731 units sold du
42、ring Sep 30- Oct 5, down 70.8% versus the6 days before the National Day holidays.In Hangzhou, only 204 units were sold in the main urban districts in the first three days(Sep 30 Oct 2), even less than half of the sales volume on the last trading day ofSeptember.Page 4Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong8 Octo
43、ber 2012PropertyChina PropertyIn Shenzhen, in the 5-day Autumn Property Trade Fair, responses were relatively muted,and only 20 local projects were shown in the exhibition. According to Centaline, only 25units were sold in Shenzhen on Sep 30, 10 units sold on Oct 1, 2 on Oct 2, and 1 on Oct3.In Kunm
44、ing, during the first 6 days (Sep 30 Oct 5) 387 units were sold in the maindistricts less than the sales volume in the normal days.In Hainan, as reported in Hexun, there were very few visitors in the sales offices of keyprojects, and sales performances were not good.Chongqing reportedly sold 149,500
45、sqm of primary commodity property from 30 Sep-7Oct: Hexun reported from Chongqing city MLR website data that from 30 Sep-7 Octtransactions for primary commodity properties in the main city area stood at 1,670 unitsand 149,500sqm, both were up 100% YoY due to one extra holiday this year and lowbase e
46、ffect from Home Purchase Restriction policy in prior years.Jinan property sales were down over 30% during the Golden Week holidays: Accordingto Baidu news, a total of 201 commodity residential units were sold during the GoldenWeek holidays, down over 30% YoY.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 58 October
47、 2012PropertyChina PropertyAnother look at “Golden September Silver October”While traditional wisdom in the property industry describe September & October as thepeak season in property sales (the two months are dubbed as “Golden September SilverOctober”), it is worth considering what it really means
48、 for investors in general.During the past 4 years (2008-2011), for the 31 key developers that we keep track of,property sales during Sep-Oct accounted for 15-24% of their respective full-yearcontracted sales in general, which indicates that sales performance in the two monthsare important to develop
49、ers. But again, with developers already achieving a high % oftheir full-year sales targets, they may not be that active on sales for the rest of this year.So, we believe property sales in Oct are unlikely to show a significant pickup versusSept.Figure 3: Contracted sales of major developers (Rmb/HK$
50、 m)2008200920102011CompanySepOctFull-SeptSepOctFull-SeptSepOctFull-SeptSepOctFull-Septyear&Oct /year&Oct /year&Oct /year&Oct /full-year(%)full-year(%)full-year(%)full-year(%)(HK$ / RMB m)COLI (HK$)China VankeCR LandPoly CNLongforC. GardenEvergrandeShimaoGemdaleAgileSino-OceanGreentownCOGO (HK$)Yuexi
51、uPoly HKKWGSunacR&FGloriousKaisaShenzhen InvYuzhouChina SCEPowerlongCentral ChinaC C LandFantasiaMinmetalsAoyuanBC LandSPG Land2.04.3na1.3na1.1na1.21.10.50.41.2nanana0.1na1.1na-0.1-nanana0.2nanana0.2na2.03.4na2.3na1.5na1.71.10.90.80.7nanana0.4na1.2na-0.3-nanana0.0nanana0.4na26.647.98.018.010.217.56.
52、012.011.411.67.215.20.83.13.72.53.716.03.82.83.41.1na1.83.40.51.1na1.13.71.815%16%na20%na15%na24%20%12%17%12%nanana16%na14%na0%11%0%nanana35%nanana17%na4.55.52.14.41.71.68.11.11.81.11.05.2na0.30.90.70.62.20.70.40.3-0.10.20.40.2nana0.21.4-4.06.53.64.51.93.60.52.71.61.91.04.0na2.20.61.00.92.20.50.70.3
53、-0.20.20.30.3nana0.20.9-47.863.425.143.418.423.230.322.521.022.614.351.31.96.18.07.66.424.26.76.06.83.91.92.93.61.73.70.52.910.65.518%19%23%21%20%23%28%17%16%13%14%18%na42%19%22%24%18%18%18%10%0%15%15%20%29%nana13%22%0%8.014.23.39.13.73.45.13.55.93.12.67.1na0.70.71.10.73.61.60.60.90.50.20.20.51.00.5
54、0.30.71.40.97.215.52.98.95.05.15.64.03.85.42.46.2na0.91.70.80.72.52.00.80.80.70.40.70.70.80.40.60.61.50.567.1108.222.366.233.332.950.430.528.832.321.654.14.17.911.411.08.332.212.710.14.35.23.66.25.55.83.92.64.812.56.423%27%28%27%26%26%21%25%34%26%24%25%na20%21%17%17%19%28%14%39%22%19%15%22%31%23%36%
55、27%23%21%6.612.54.16.74.22.79.23.63.82.83.51.7na1.21.30.81.63.01.22.00.30.40.30.60.60.70.80.60.71.00.16.810.33.25.44.44.48.62.22.73.32.72.1na1.80.90.92.92.11.81.90.30.50.40.50.50.50.60.20.31.20.387.1121.536.073.238.343.280.430.730.931.527.033.17.79.115.811.517.730.013.315.34.64.34.65.58.16.47.03.75.
56、011.03.215%19%20%17%22%16%22%19%21%19%23%11%na34%14%15%26%17%22%25%12%19%15%21%13%18%19%21%21%21%13%Average15%18%24%19%Source: Company Data, Deutsche BankPage 6Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong8 October 2012PropertyChina PropertyValuationFigure 4: China Property Valuation TableDBRatingTrade ReportCcyCcyMkt
57、Cap12mth 10/5/20 Target ImpliedDaily12T/OEst.NAVEPSPE(x)CompanyTickerUSDm USDmPricePriceUpsideNAVDiscFY10A FY11A FY12F FY10A FY11A FY12FCoveredCOLICR Land688 HK1109 HKBuyBuyHKDHKDHKDHKD20,871 57.8712,882 23.4119.8017.1424.9121.8026%27%27.727.3-28%-37%1.160.851.591.032.051.3717.020.212.416.79.712.5Lo
58、ngforCountry GardenEvergrandeCSCIAgileR&FSOHO ChinaSino-OceanHui Xian REITFranshionYuexiuShui OnCOGOYanlordPoly PropertyKWGSunacKaisaCentral ChinaC C LandE-HouseMinmetalsFar East Global960 HK2007 HK3333 HK3311 HK3383 HK2777 HK410 HK3377 HK87001 HK817 HK123 HK272 HK81 HKYLLG SP119 HK1813 HK1918 HK163
59、8 HK832 HK1224 HKEJ US230 HK830 HKBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDCNYHKDHKDHKDHKDSGDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDUSDHKDHKDCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYCNYHKDCNYHKDCNYCNYCNYCNYHKDUSDHKDHKD8,6667,0076,0444,5633,9513,6953,3503,3453,2252,8242,4452,
60、3712,3551,9841,9641,6011,50689858657152741339212.7311.0242.258.3417.748.816.523.372.301.744.492.492.486.8210.335.861.571.010.141.071.730.261.1112.382.983.139.108.888.895.034.494.032.392.043.088.001.254.224.293.881.421.871.714.470.961.4116.003.856.1610.0012.9516.797.703.634.633.553.045.019.781.007.82
61、6.595.214.004.134.599.502.002.9129%29%97%10%46%89%53%-19%15%49%49%63%22%-20%85%54%34%182%121%168%113%108%106%20.05.58.810.018.528.012.89.16.65.14.38.412.22.011.211.08.76.76.99.20.03.42.9-38%-46%-64%-9%-52%-68%-61%-50%-39%-53%-53%-63%-35%-37%-62%-61%-55%-79%-73%-81%NA-72%-52%0.620.260.510.351.141.050
62、.680.410.210.120.040.150.450.650.340.520.620.290.27(0.02)0.820.190.110.870.350.570.441.291.360.270.380.110.180.120.270.700.440.680.640.800.320.300.11(0.11)0.180.071.060.380.600.541.231.710.520.390.210.250.290.311.080.400.550.790.910.360.350.270.500.18(0.07)16.39.45.126.06.46.96.19.019.520.545.117.01
63、7.99.812.66.75.14.05.6NA5.45.013.411.67.04.520.65.65.315.09.736.813.313.79.311.414.76.25.53.93.65.115.4NA5.320.79.56.44.316.75.94.27.99.318.89.55.88.07.416.07.74.43.53.34.36.48.95.2NANot RatedChina Vanke - AChina Vanke - B000002 CH200002 CHNRNRCNYHKDCNYCNY14,533 69.7014,533 2.988.439.75NANANANANANAN
64、ANA0.660.660.880.880.910.9112.812.19.69.19.38.7ShimaoNWCLGreentownMingfaHopsonGloriousShenzhen InvRenhePowerlongYuzhouBJ North StarFantasiaAoyuanBC LandZhong AnSPG Land813 HK917 HK3900 HK846 HK754 HK845 HK604 HK1387 HK1238 HK1628 HK588 HK1777 HK3883 HK2868 HK672 HK337 HKNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRN
65、RNRHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDCNYHKDCNYCNYHKDCNYHKDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY5,9933,4922,2821,6901,3661,18685184666866159550433129023521115.941.422.310.661.092.181.795.280.610.110.120.320.120.980.070.1113.383.138.302.156.101.181.820.311.281.781.370.750.982.200.771.56NANANANANAN
66、ANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANA1.30.50.70.11.80.20.20.130.30.30.10.10.10.50.10.71.60.51.60.30.80.30.40.020.80.30.30.20.20.50.20.91.30.31.70.20.80.20.30.080.20.20.50.38.36.49.818.93.44.87.32.04.14.611.35.812.64.08.5
67、1.96.76.24.36.67.43.44.216.41.24.53.22.74.73.84.21.58.411.03.911.08.04.95.23.34.4NANA3.1NA3.3NA4.4Overall average-53%10.78.97.5Source: Deutsche Bank, Company, Bloomberg Finance LP Consensus estimates for companies NRDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 7-8 October 2012PropertyChina PropertyFigure 5: China
68、 Property Valuation Table (contd)EPS growth %BVPSPB(x)DPSDividends yield %Net gearing %CompanyTicker10A11A12F10A11A12F10A11A12F10A11A12F10A11A12F10A11A12FCoveredCOLICR LandLongforCountry Garden688 HK1109 HK960 HK2007 HK464016933721413529332286.78.53.11.58.610.44.31.710.511.55.11.93.02.03.31.62.31.72
69、.41.41.91.52.01.30.30.30.10.20.30.30.20.20.40.30.20.21.41.81.06.31.71.51.77.21.81.52.16.322.956.343.059.133.362.340.970.613.761.441.870.8Evergrande3333 HK5841341.42.22.51.91.21.00.20.20.25.98.99.388.082.3 107.3CSCIAgileR&FSOHO ChinaSino-OceanHui Xian REITFranshionYuexiuShui OnCOGOYanlord3311 HK3383
70、HK2777 HK410 HK3377 HK87001 HK817 HK123 HK272 HK81 HKYLLG SP401056710877(3)(5)NA(68)NA6261330(60)(7)(47)542308257(33)23(5)2590396411371754(8)1.56.26.13.75.52.72.51.74.82.36.72.67.57.04.26.35.22.92.25.42.37.63.47.18.34.87.15.13.12.45.73.38.05.91.21.21.10.71.50.91.00.53.41.03.41.01.01.00.60.80.80.80.5
71、3.50.82.71.00.90.90.50.80.80.70.42.40.80.00.30.50.30.10.0-0.10.10.00.10.30.60.30.20.10.00.10.10.1-0.10.30.60.30.20.30.10.10.10.10.00.04.06.96.33.50.01.30.04.41.30.31.44.78.36.14.13.61.74.25.00.60.01.54.88.36.14.46.32.14.25.21.30.335.070.294.4-56.945.90.021.364.745.20.732.5-1.576.685.9-9.664.3-3.248.
72、777.268.422.950.6-7.688.780.0-23.961.61.332.751.149.1-90.852.2Poly Property119 HK71101(19)6.16.87.50.70.60.60.23.70.00.062.6 104.0 106.0KWG1813 HK5822234.04.75.20.90.80.70.10.10.21.71.76.347.762.731.5Sunac1918 HK13929132.32.43.21.41.31.0-0.1-0.02.50.040.6 109.3 19.1KaisaCentral ChinaC C Land1638 HK8
73、32 HK1224 HK18539NA1210NA11191422.01.94.82.42.15.12.82.25.40.60.80.40.50.70.30.40.70.3-0.10.0-0.10.0-0.20.10.05.42.30.05.42.30.012.12.930.647.1-11.776.645.73.869.933.010.7E-HouseEJ US(36)NANA11.17.97.80.40.60.60.30.20.25.63.43.4-61.1 -62.3 -57.9MinmetalsFar East Global230 HK830 HK224NA(4)(36)1NA2.10
74、.51.90.62.10.50.42.90.52.50.52.80.00.00.0-0.0-1.02.11.00.01.90.011.2-86.930.5-6.434.1-42.5Not RatedChina Vanke - AChina Vanke - BShimaoNWCL000002 CH200002 CH813 HK917 HK494910460333323444(19)(44)4.04.07.56.34.84.88.87.05.55.59.65.52.12.01.50.51.71.71.20.41.51.41.10.60.10.10.40.10.10.10.30.20.20.40.1
75、1.21.33.02.21.51.62.4NA2.02.12.71.921.721.776.225.130.530.593.4NA22.222.282.422.9Greentown3900 HK8127116.27.38.91.10.90.80.50.10.26.81.53.1181.2 252.2NAMingfa846 HK(5)185(40)0.91.21.91.5NA0.10.00.04.32.32.737.1NANAHopsonGloriousShenzhen InvRenhePowerlongYuzhouBJ North StarFantasiaAoyuanBC LandZhong
76、AnSPG Land754 HK845 HK604 HK1387 HK1238 HK1628 HK588 HK1777 HK3883 HK2868 HK672 HK337 HK90977(34)(33)44(49)20(11)152(22)334(54)3973(88)2343252117171410325(8)(29)(19)398(72)NANA(14)NA15NA(66)221.93.80.82.71.63.80.92.32.62.04.2242.24.31.03.51.94.11.12.42.82.15.0232.45.01.14.04.51.23.15.30.30.50.50.30.
77、40.90.30.70.40.70.30.30.30.40.40.30.30.80.30.50.30.60.30.30.30.40.40.20.3NA0.30.5NA0.6NA0.20.2-0.10.10.10.10.00.00.00.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.00.00.00.10.2-0.10.00.1-0.10.00.20.02.80.07.728.45.75.31.85.54.110.00.05.10.00.08.20.05.71.92.75.36.410.60.00.01.31.57.90.06.0NANA6.7NA11.4NA1.651.456.640.2-0.224.838.
78、555.456.620.223.134.983.339.566.2NA25.0NANANANANA81.7NANA76.769.2NA16.7NANANANANANANANAOverall average6747241.21.00.93.83.03.736.053.134.6Source: Deutsche Bank, Company, Bloomberg Finance LP Consensus estimates for companies NRPage 8Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong8 October 2012PropertyChina PropertyAppen
79、dix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upon requestDisclosure checklistCompanyCOLITicker0688.HKRecent price*19.84 (HKD) 5 Oct 12Disclosure14*Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companiesI
80、mportant Disclosures Required by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received
81、non-investment banking related compensation from this companywithin the past year.For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up
82、 page on ourwebsite at http:/ CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about thesubject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receiveany compensation for
83、 providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Tony Tsang/Jason ChingDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 9SecurityPrice31.6.2.7.3.8.4.9.5.8 October 2012PropertyChina PropertyHistorical recommendations and target price: COLI (0688.HK)(as of 10/5/2012)25.00Previous RecommendationsStrong BuyBu
84、y20.0015.001245 6789Market PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended RatingCurrent RecommendationsBuy10.005.00HoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Oct 10Jan 11Apr 11Jul 11Oct 11DateJan 12Apr 12Jul 1203/11/2010:14/03/2011:17/03/2011:31/05/2011:Buy, Targe
85、t Price Change HKD18.68Buy, Target Price Change HKD19.50Buy, Target Price Change HKD19.60Buy, Target Price Change HKD21.3809/08/2011:15/03/2012:27/06/2012:09/08/2012:Buy, Target Price Change HKD23.43Buy, Target Price Change HKD23.68Buy, Target Price Change HKD24.38Buy, Target Price Change HKD24.9117
86、/07/2011:Equity rating keyBuy, Target Price Change HKD23.33Equity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsBuy: Based on a current 12- month view of totalshare-holder return (TSR = percentage change inshare price from current price to projected target priceplus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we rec
87、ommend thatinvestors buy the stock.45040035030025020056 %39 %Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell thestock15010050011 %15 %5%10 %Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-monthsBuyHoldSellout and, based on this time horizon, do notr
88、ecommend either a Buy or Sell.Notes:Companies CoveredCos. w/ Banking Relationship1. Newly issued research recommendations andtarget prices always supersede previously publishedresearch.2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or mor
89、e over a 12-month periodAsia-Pacific UniverseHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month periodPage 10Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong8 October 2012PropertyChina PropertyRegulatory
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