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1、8.507.6315.13.7-0.5Company reportFIGCommercial BanksEquity MalaysiaabcGlobal ResearchNeutralTarget price (MYR)Share price (MYR)Forecast dividend yield (%)Potential return (%)Note: Potential return equals the percentagedifference between the current share price andthe target price, plus the forecast
2、dividend yieldDec 2011 a 2012 e 2013 eCIMB Group Holding (CIMB)N: Higher 3Q12 cost income ratio could be transitional Strong deal pipeline and a pick up in corporate loan growthmeans 2012 earnings expectations can easily be achievedHSBC EPSHSBC PEPerformanceAbsolute (%)0.5115.11M0.10.5613.63M-2.90.6
3、412.012M11.1 Profitability beyond 2012 depends on internal restructuringand the integration of recent acquisitionsRelative (%) 2.8 -1.3Note: (V) = volatile (please see disclosure appendix)21 November 2012Kar Weng Loo*AnalystThe Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited, Singapore branch+65 66
4、58 .sgXiushi Cai*AnalystThe Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited, Singapore branch+65 6658 .sgTodd Dunivant*Head of Banks Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited (HK)+852 2996 .hkView HSBC Global Research at:http:/*Employed by a non-US affiliate ofHSBC
5、Securities (USA) Inc, and is notregistered/qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsIssuer of The Hongkong and Shanghaireport: Banking Corporation Limited,Singapore BranchMICA (P) 038/04/2012MICA (P) 063/04/2012MICA (P) 206/01/2012Disclaimer &DisclosuresThis report must be readwith the disclosures andt
6、he analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it We have a Neutral rating and MYR8.50 price targetHigher opex eats up income growth in 3Q12 but this could be transitional. Strippingout a one-off MYR133mn gain, pre-provision profit (PPoP) fell 5% q-o-
7、q as the 9% risein operating cost more than offset the 3% growth in total income. Cost income ratioincreased to 59% (2Q12: 56%). That said, 3Q12 includes MYR30mn-MYR40mn ofrunning costs from the acquisition of RBS cash equities and equity capital marketbusinesses Asia. Revenue generation from the RB
8、S acquisition has yet to stabilise so costincome metrics should improve over time.Results were still within market expectations including ours. Core 3Q12 net profit wasdown 9% q-o-q bringing 9M12 core net profit to MYR3,127mn, accounting for 73% ofconsensus full year estimates (75% of ours). We inte
9、rpret management commentary asasserting that non-interest income can be sustained in 4Q12 and corporate loan growthcould pick up. This suggests that CIMB should easily be able to hit the markets earningsexpectations for this year.Dividend policy will depend on capital rules. Bank Negara is expected
10、to announce theBasel III framework in Nov/Dec 2012. Depending on how capital rules evolve, on a worstcase basis, CIMB may consider a one-off dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) to conservecapital. Management stressed that it is not in favour of maintaining a DRP into perpetuity.Longer term profitabilit
11、y depends on internal restructuring and the integration ofrecent acquisitions. We believe management is acutely aware of the challenges toprofitability ahead. It is in the process of restructuring its group wholesale banking, riskmanagement and Malaysian consumer businesses. This, together with the
12、successfulintegration of the acquisition of RBS and 60% of Bank of Commerce in the Philippines,should help support profitability in the long term.Neutral rating, target MYR8.50. Although we like how CIMBs management is focusedon evolving the platform to drive profitability ahead, we have a Neutral r
13、ating given thatthe stock trades at 1.9x Dec 13E BV and 12x 2013E EPS. Our MYR8.50 price targetassumes a 15.8% RoE, a 10.9% cost of equity, and a 6.4% growth rate. This implies 2.1xDec-13e BV and 14x 2013e EPS.11CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November 2012Financials & valuation: CIMBInc
14、ome statement(MYRm)Financial ratios and assumptions (%)abcNeutralYear toInterest incomeInterest expenseNet interest incomeIslamic banking incomeNon-interest incmeOperating incomeOperating expensePre-prov op profit (PPOP)Provision chargesAssociates & amortizationNon-op itemsProfit before taxCore prof
15、it before taxTaxation12/11a12,682(6,005)6,6761,4703,72511,872(6,630)5,242(432)1282655,2034,938(1,129)12/12e14,150(6,721)7,4291,5583,99312,980(6,975)6,006(562)16605,6105,610(1,402)12/13e15,166(7,192)7,9741,7604,34814,082(7,323)6,759(565)18306,3776,377(1,594)12/14e16,197(7,688)8,5101,9704,67415,153(7,
16、883)7,270(514)20106,9576,957(1,739)Year toGross yieldCost of fundsNet interest marginIslamic banking inc/operating incNon-int inc/operating incGross loans/depositsCost/operating income ratioCost/average assetsNet provision/ avg net loansGross NPLs/loansLoan loss coverageEffective tax rateCore RoACor
17、e RoE12/11a4.91%2.43%2.59%12%31%86%56%2.3%0.25%5.12%81%22%1.42%16.4%12/12e5.00%2.47%2.62%12%31%86%54%2.2%0.29%5.15%77%25%1.34%15.4%12/13e4.94%2.46%2.60%13%31%86%52%2.2%0.27%4.99%76%25%1.41%16.2%12/14e4.90%2.45%2.57%13%31%86%52%2.2%0.23%4.89%76%25%1.43%16.3%Minorities + preferencesAttributable profit
18、Core earningsBalance sheet summary (MYRm)Ordinary equity(44)4,0313,76625,936(42)4,1654,16528,019(48)4,7354,73530,386(52)5,1655,16532,969Growth (y-o-y, %)Earning assetsTotal assetsGross loansDeposits11%11%14%11%9%8%9%9%8%7%8%8%8%7%8%8%Customer loans (Net)Investment in securitiesCustomer depositsDebt
19、issuedInterest earning assetsInterest bearing liabilitiesTotal assetsCapital (%)RWA (MYRm)Core equity Tier 1Tier 1CARPer share data (MYR)Core EPSCore diluted EPSDPSNTABV183,83944,358221,93318,144271,270261,676300,203185,6568.6%9.2%17.4%0.510.510.302.163.49200,33945,245241,90717,705294,984282,291323,
20、525197,3509.1%9.7%17.7%0.560.560.282.443.77216,72146,150261,26018,205318,409303,278347,539211,9999.7%10.2%18.1%0.640.640.322.764.09234,32147,073282,16018,205343,157325,369372,909227,47410.2%10.6%18.2%0.690.690.353.114.44Net interest incomeIslamic banking incomeNon interest incomeOperating incomeTota
21、l costProvision chargesPre-provision profitCore PBTCore net profitCore diluted EPSDPSBVPSRoE decompositionNet interest incomeIslamic banking incomeNon-Interest IncomeOperating incomeOperating expensesPPOP1%11%-5%0%0%-31%0%12%15%4%-16%12%2.34%0.52%1.31%4.17%-2.33%1.84%11%6%7%9%5%30%15%8%3%11%70%8%2.3
22、8%0.50%1.28%4.16%-2.24%1.93%7%13%9%8%5%1%13%14%14%14%14%8%2.38%0.52%1.30%4.20%-2.18%2.01%7%12%7%8%8%-9%8%9%9%9%9%8%2.36%0.55%1.30%4.21%-2.19%2.02%Valuations multiples (x)PEP/PPoPP/NTAPBDividend yield (%)Price relative1115x10.9x3.6x2.2x3.9%14x9.5x3.1x2.0x3.7%12x8.4x2.8x1.9x4.2%11x7.8x2.5x1.7x4.5%Prov
23、isionsNon-op itemsOp inc before taxTaxationMinoritiesAttributable profitLeverageRoESource: Company data, HSBC estimates-0.15% -0.18% -0.17% -0.14%0.14% 0.05% 0.05% 0.06%1.83% 1.80% 1.90% 1.93%-0.40% -0.45% -0.48% -0.48%-0.02% -0.01% -0.01% -0.01%1.42% 1.34% 1.41% 1.43%11.6x 11.6x 11.5x 11.4x16.4% 15
24、.4% 16.2% 16.3%Priced as of market close, 20 November 2012109876510987652010201120122013CIMB Group HoldingSource: HSBC2Rel to KLSE COMPOSITE INDEXCIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November 2012Key points from analystconference call The consumer bank in Malaysia has beenleaking market share
25、 because (1) CIMB wastaking a cautious stance on credit and (2) itwas also fixing its consumer bankingplatform. Market share for residentialmortgages and credit cards is now 13.1% and11.6% respectively (Sep 11: 13.7% and12.7%). By and large, the improvements inthe banking platform should translate t
26、oimprovements in market share ahead. Sustainable RoE for 93.2%-owned CIMBThai is likely going to be hovering at the highsingle digit levels. To move beyond that,CIMB Thai needs to either scale up itsoperations or find a profitable niche marketsegment to focus on. Management remainsreticent on how th
27、is piece of the business willevolve stating that it is looking to overcomethe scale issue but M&A opportunities arerare and expensive. Meanwhile, we believemanagement implied that it may bemisleading to look at CIMB Thai on astandalone basis as the group does leverageon the platform for regional bus
28、iness (e.g.cross border financing). Gross loans were flat q-o-q and up 9% y-o-y.However, this number was affected by aweaker Rupiah. Stripping out currencyeffects, gross loan growth would have been+3.7% q-o-q and +12.1% y-o-y. 3Q12 earnings include MYR133mn one-off There are no signs of asset qualit
29、y stress.However, management remains elusive onwhether the current credit cost charge issustainable. The proposed sale of 51%-owned CIMBAviva Assurance is expected to be completedin 1Q13. Bank Negara (BNM) is expected to announcethe Basel III framework in Nov/Dec 2012 andthe new consolidation framew
30、ork in 1Q13.Depending on how the rules on capitalevolve, on a worst case basis, CIMB mayconsider a one-off dividend reinvestment plan(DRP) to conserve capital. Managementstressed that it is not in favour of maintaininga DRP into perpetuity. The acquisition of 60% of Bank of Commercein the Philippine
31、s should be completed by earlyDecember 2012. Acquisition of selected cashequities and equity capital markets businesses ofRBS will be fully completed in 1Q13. CIMB insinuated that non-interest income in4Q12 can be sustained due to a strong dealpipeline. Management also commented thatfull year loan g
32、rowth could exceed 12% ascorporate loan growth picks up. CIMB has maintained its targets for 2012:16.4% RoE target; 16% group loans growthtarget; 16% group deposit growth target and aloan loss charge of 0.31%. Annualised 9M12RoE is 15.6% while the credit charge rate for9M12 is 0.2%.abcrecoveries fro
33、m CIMB Thai. Stripping this out,earnings would be flat y-o-y and down 9%q-o-q. 3Q12 also includes MYR30mn-MYR40mn of running cost from the acquisitionof RBS. If we take this out also, 3Q12underlying earnings would be up 3% y-o-y butdown 6% q-o-q.3CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November
34、2012Table 1: CIMB: 3Q12 resultabcRMmn, year-end DecInterest incomeInterest expenseNet interest incomeIslamic Banking incomeNon-interest incomeTotal incomeOperating costsPre-provision profitLoan loss provisionImpairment lossAssociatesExceptionalsProfit before taxCore profit before taxTaxMinoritiesRep
35、orted net profitCore net profit3Q113,249(1,587)1,6623889813,031(1,701)1,331(106)184401,2881,288(273)(3)1,0121,0124Q113,357(1,597)1,7603631,0083,131(1,722)1,409(289)8272501,4051,155(260)(13)1,1338831Q123,301(1,564)1,7383761,1423,256(1,792)1,463(144)(12)3401,3411,341(318)(12)1,0111,0112Q123,362(1,498)
36、1,8654521,0063,323(1,847)1,476(52)(6)4831,4701,467(351)(9)1,1101,1073Q123,415(1,529)1,8864641,1953,544(2,007)1,537(81)43601,4961,496(330)(23)1,1431,143YoY%5%-4%13%20%22%17%18%16%-23%-77%-20%NM16%16%21%625%13%13%QoQ%2%2%1%3%19%7%9%4%58%-166%-26%-100%2%2%-6%148%3%3%9M119,325(4,408)4,9161,1082,7178,741
37、(4,908)3,833(198)3912403,7983,798(869)(31)2,8982,8989M1210,078(4,590)5,4881,2913,34310,123(5,646)4,477(277)(14)11834,3074,304(999)(44)3,2633,261YoY%8%4%12%17%23%16%15%17%40%-136%-5%NM13%13%15%43%13%12%Key financial ratiosGross NPLLoan Loss CoverageNet provisions / Avg net loansNet loans / depositsGr
38、oss loan growth YoYGross loan growth QoQDeposit growth YoYDeposit growth QoQCASA deposits / Total depositsAssets / Equity (x)Core Tier I*Tier I*RWCAR*RoEPPoP RoEROAPPoP RoANon-int inc / Total incCost income ratioEffective tax rateYield on earning assetsCost of fundsNet interest margin5.52%80%0.24%81
39、%14%5%13%3%33%11.8x7.9%14.1%16.3%16.3%21.4%1.40%1.84%32%56%21%5.01%2.54%2.56%5.12%81%0.64%83%14%3%11%2%35%11.5x8.1%14.5%16.8%17.7%22.0%1.52%1.89%32%55%18%5.00%2.46%2.62%4.77%81%0.31%80%11%0%14%4%34%12.0x7.5%13.4%15.4%15.6%22.5%1.32%1.92%35%55%24%4.79%2.35%2.52%4.43%82%0.11%85%13%5%7%-1%35%11.7x8.1%1
40、3.7%15.7%16.8%22.3%1.42%1.89%30%56%24%4.76%2.20%2.64%4.21%84%0.17%84%9%0%6%2%35%11.8x7.0%13.0%14.8%16.8%22.6%1.43%1.93%34%57%22%4.74%2.21%2.62%5.52%80%0.16%81%14%5%13%3%33%11.8x7.9%14.1%16.3%16.0%21.1%1.37%1.81%31%56%23%4.87%2.40%2.57%4.21%84%0.20%84%9%0%6%2%35%11.8x7.0%13.0%14.8%16.3%22.3%1.40%1.92
41、%33%56%23%4.78%2.26%2.60%Source: Company, HSBC; *At CIMB Bank level4CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November 2012Table 2: CIMB: Loan growth and compositionabcRMmn, year-end Dec3Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12QoQMYRmnQoQ%YoYMYRmnYoY % Composition %ConstructionResidential mortgages5,13248,4815,21748,8
42、096,24049,2386,33250,5326,70551,2433737116%1%1,5732,76231%6%3%26%Non-residential mortgages 12,25712,75913,05213,54615,0411,49511%2,78423%7%Purchase of SecuritiesTransport VehiclesPersonal usesCredit cardConsumer durablesFixed assetsMerger & acquisitionsWorking capitalOthersTotal gross loansFixed rat
43、e loansFloating rate loansTotal gross loansSME loansConsumer loansCorporate loansTotal gross loans7,44416,5836,4605,365117,7652,54347,39915,510184,94051,561133,380184,94029,07588,34667,519184,9408,66816,2816,7825,604116,5285,18646,07819,479191,39354,150137,243191,39329,82589,30472,265191,39310,25516
44、,2836,7975,349215,8292,18046,86818,414190,50751,801138,707190,50729,46090,31570,732190,50710,71316,6786,8695,458315,9703,65551,89018,323199,97053,168146,802199,97031,14592,95075,876199,97011,07217,0156,9905,4771015,0362,79950,81918,566200,77353,730147,042200,77331,04894,41575,310200,773360336121197(
45、934)(856)(1,072)243802562240802(97)1,466(566)8023%2%2%0%200%-6%-23%-2%1%0%1%0%0%0%2%-1%0%3,6284315291139(2,729)2563,4193,05615,8322,16913,66315,8321,9736,0697,79115,83249%3%8%2%885%-15%10%7%20%9%4%10%9%7%7%12%9%6%8%3%3%0%7%1%25%9%100%27%73%100%15%47%38%100%Source: Company, HSBCTable 3: CIMB: NPL tre
46、ndsRMmn, year-end Dec3Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12 QoQ chg (%) YoY chg (%)ConstructionResidential mortgagesNon-residential mortgagesPurchase of securitiesTransport VehiclesPersonal usesCredit cardConsumer durablesFixed assetsWorking capitalOthersTotal gross NPL1,4951,92943413153230012016903,4671,11410,2121,3
47、431,78240712442435512815573,5661,1199,8051,3611,67337410142324411306513,2189249,0811,2121,69739019941125510506233,0279308,8501,2431,7073721943872535204412,8899168,4553%1%-5%-2%-6%-1%-50%-2%-29%-5%-2%-4%-17%-11%-14%49%-27%-16%-57%-65%-36%-17%-18%-17%Gross NPL ratioConstructionResidential mortgagesNon
48、-residential mortgagesPurchase of securitiesTransport VehiclesPersonal usesCredit cardConsumer durablesFixed assetsWorking capitalOthersTotal gross NPL29.1%4.0%3.5%1.8%3.2%4.6%2.2%56.0%3.9%7.3%7.2%5.5%25.7%3.7%3.2%1.4%2.6%5.2%2.3%59.7%3.4%7.7%5.7%5.1%21.8%3.4%2.9%1.0%2.6%3.6%2.1%13.1%4.1%6.9%5.0%4.8
49、%19.1%3.4%2.9%1.9%2.5%3.7%1.9%6.1%3.9%5.8%5.1%4.4%18.5%3.3%2.5%1.8%2.3%3.6%1.0%2.0%2.9%5.7%4.9%4.2%Source: Company, HSBC5CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November 2012Table 4: CIMB: Balance sheetabcRMmn, year-end DecCash & ST fundsRepos purchasedInterbank loansHFT securitiesAFS securities
50、HTM securitiesNet LoansNon-interest earning assetsGoodwill & intangiblesTotal AssetsCustomer depositsInterbank borrowingsBills payableOther borrowingsRedeemable preference sharesSub debtOther liabilitiesTotal LiabilitiesMinoritiesPerpetual pref sharesShare capitalReservesLiabilities, minorities and
51、s/holders funds3Q1130,3833,9738,05617,48612,85716,047177,12919,8589,823295,612218,20216,3155,3303,92991511,94512,999269,6337112007,43317,635295,6124Q1134,6694,2304,17413,66618,42112,461183,83919,0799,854300,393221,93314,0327,5675,84588111,41811,710273,3877272007,43318,646300,3931Q1230,9684,4437,2792
52、1,64021,11511,397183,42020,1579,702310,122229,83917,5475,7875,83386611,17812,221283,2707442007,43318,475310,1222Q1225,4124,2175,00523,09323,29410,740193,17920,9469,802315,687226,42223,4706,2836,33387711,24613,032287,6627492007,43319,643315,6873Q1223,1855,4066,83325,70226,8439,193194,09920,8389,69032
53、1,788231,59423,7004,8147,33586211,47613,663293,4437912007,43319,921321,788Source: Company, HSBC62Q072Q081Q011Q03 1Q041Q06 1Q071Q09 1Q101Q101Q101Q111Q111Q112Q112Q092Q102Q121Q021Q04 1Q051Q071Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q121Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q091Q013Q021Q043Q051Q073Q083Q111Q101Q011Q031Q05 1Q06
54、 1Q07 1Q081Q121Q021Q041Q091Q121Q011Q031Q061Q081Q121Q021Q051Q08CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November 2012CIMB: Quarterly trendsChart 1: CIMB: Loan and deposit growth YoY%Chart 2: CIMB: Group loan / deposit ratio %abc35%Gross loans YoY%Deposits YoY%100%Net loan-deposit ratio30%25%20%15%
55、10%5%0%-5%Source: Company, HSBCChart 3: CIMB: Net interest margin %95%90%85%80%75%70%Source: Company, HSBCChart 4: CIMB: Non-interest income / Total income %3.2%3.0%2.8%NIM%55%50%45%40%Non-interest income/Total income35%2.6%2.4%2.2%Source: Company, HSBC; Excludes Islamic banking incomeChart 5: CIMB:
56、 Gross NPL and loan loss coverage30%25%20%15%Source: Company, HSBCChart 6: CIMB: Annualised credit cost / Average net loansLoan loss cov erage (LHS)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%Source: Company, HSBCGross NPL (RHS)12%11%10%9%8%7%6%5%4%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%Source: Company, HSBCCredit cost/ Av
57、g net loans71Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q051Q07 1Q081Q10 1Q111Q021Q041Q06 1Q071Q10 1Q111Q011Q051Q091Q061Q091Q121Q031Q081Q12CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November 2012Chart 7: CIMB: Annualised RoE and PPoP RoEChart 8: CIMB: Annualised RoA and PPoP RoAabc45%RoEPPoP RoE4.0%RoAPPoP RoA3.5%35%25%1
58、5%5%-5%Source: Company, HSBCValuation and risksCIMB (CIMB MK, Neutral): We value CIMB atMYR8.50 per share, based on an intrinsic PBmultiple derived from the Gordon growth model.Our target price assumes a 15.8% sustainable RoE, a10.9% cost of equity, and a 6.4% growth rate. Thisimplies 2.1x Dec-13e B
59、V and 14x 2013e EPS.Under our research model, for stocks without thevolatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppts aboveand below the hurdle rate for Malaysian stocks of7%, or 2-12% above the current share price. At thetime we set our target price, it implied a potentialreturn that was within the N
60、eutral band; therefore,we rate the stock Neutral. Potential return equals thedifference between the current share price and thetarget price, including the forecast dividend yield.Downside risks include stricter-than-expected ruleson capital, fierce competition for funding inIndonesia, renewed pressu
61、re on lending yields, adeteriorating asset quality cycle, and the possible riskthat Bank Indonesia might impose retrospectiveshareholding limits, forcing CIMB to sell down itsstake in CIMB Niaga. Upside risks to our estimatesand Neutral call include rules on capital that are lessstricter than what w
62、e expect, moderating competitionfor funding in Indonesia, less pressure on lendingyields, an improving asset quality cycle, and thepossibility that Bank Indonesia will not imposeretrospective shareholding limits on CIMB Niaga.83.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%Source: Company, HSBCCIMB Group Holding
63、(CIMB)Commercial Banksabc21 November 2012Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that theopinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecas
64、ts expressed herein accurately reflect theirpersonal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Kar Weng Loo, Xiushi Cai and Todd DunivantImportant disclosuresStock rati
65、ngs and basis for financial analysisHSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, whichdepend largely on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations.Given these differen
66、ces, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunitiesbased on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon;and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportuni
67、ties that are derived from fundamental, quantitative,technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating.HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below.This report addresses only the long-
68、term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and whenHSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of thiswebsite.HSB
69、C believes an investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investorsexisting holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations. Investors
70、 should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each researchreport. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts views, investorsshould carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In an
71、y case, ratings should notbe used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunitiesStock ratingsHSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis:For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of
72、equity for that stocks domestic or, as appropriate,regional market established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stockto reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight,
73、 thepotential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including theforecast dividend yield when indicated, must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months(or 10 percentage points for a stock classifi
74、ed as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must beexpected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage pointsfor a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.Our
75、ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any material change (initiation of coverage, change of volatilitystatus or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review,expected returns will be permitted to move outside the
76、bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarilytriggering a rating change.9Nov-07Nov-08Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Nov-1245%17%9876CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banksabc21 November 2012*A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the
77、stock has been listed for less than 12months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However,stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the pastmonths av
78、erage of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating,however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stocks status to change.Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunitiesA
79、s of 20 November 2012, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows:Overweight (Buy)(27% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)Neutral (Hold)Underweight (Sell)38%(27% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)(20% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)Sh
80、are price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunitiesCIMB Group Holding (CIMB.KL) Share Price performance MYR Vs HSBC Recommendation & price target historyrating history10FromN/AOverweightTarget PricePrice 1Price 2Price 3Price 4Source: HSBCToOverweightNeutralValue9.909.007.708.50Date18
81、 July 201115 November 2011Date18 July 201123 August 201115 November 201115 August 20125432Source: HSBC101234567891011123CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November 2012HSBC & Analyst disclosuresDisclosure checklistabcCompanyCIMB GROUP HOLDINGTickerCIMB.KLDisclosure6, 7Source: HSBCHSBC* has
82、managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months.HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next3 months.At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Ma
83、rket Maker in securities issued by thiscompany.As of 31 October 2012 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company.As of 30 September 2012, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a clientof and/or paid compensati
84、on to HSBC in respect of investment banking services.As of 30 September 2012, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a clientof and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services.As of 30 September 2012, this
85、company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a clientof and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services.A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months.A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household
86、 has a financial interest in the securities of this company, asdetailed below.A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of thiscompany, as detailed below.At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securi
87、ties issued by this company and/or insecurities in respect of this companyAnalysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investmentbanking revenues.For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most
88、 recently published report on thatcompany available at HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.Additional disclosuresThis report is dated as at 21 November 2012.All market data included in this report are dated as at close 19 November 2012, unless otherwise indicated in the report.HS
89、BC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with itsResearch business. HSBCs analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Researchoperate and have a management reporting line independent of HS
90、BCs Investment Banking business. Information Barrierprocedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/orprice sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.11CIMB Group Holding (CIMB)Commercial Banks21 November 2012Disclaim
91、er* Legal entities as at 8 August 2012UAE HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; HK The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, HongKong; TW HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; CA HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch;HSBC France; DE HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Dss
92、eldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; IN HSBC Securitiesand Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; JP HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; EG HSBC SecuritiesEgypt SAE, Cairo; CN HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation
93、Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, SeoulSecurities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (SouthAfrica) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; US HSBC Sec
94、urities (USA)abcIssuer of reportThe Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited, Singapore Branch21 Collyer Quay #03-01HSBC BuildingSingapore 049320Website: Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC Mxico, SA, Institucin de Banca Mltiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBC; HSBC Bank Bra
95、sil SA Banco Mltiplo; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA;HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporatedin Hong Kong SARThis document has been issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore
96、Branch (“HSBC”) for the information of its institutional customers and/orother persons specified in Sections 274 and 304 of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289)(SFA) and accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditionsspecified in Sections 275 and 305 of the SFA; it i
97、s not intended for and should not be distributed to retail customers. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation LimitedSingapore Branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Recipients in Singapore should contact a “Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, SingaporeBranc
98、h” representative in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The information and materials contained herein are provided “as is” without warrantyof any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding the accuracy or fitness for a purpose is give
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100、 any binding legal relations. It does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities.Independent advice should be sought before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities mentioned herein. In no event wil
101、l any member of theHSBC group be liable to the recipient for any direct or indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with reliance on any information and materials herein.Members of the HSBC group and their associates, directors, officers and/or employees may have posit
102、ions in, and may effect transactions in the securities or investment instrumentscovered herein, and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking, corporate finance or other services for the issuers of the securities mentioned herein.All enquiries by recipients in Hong Kong must be
103、 directed to your HSBC contact in Hong Kong. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited is regulated by the HongKong Monetary Authority. In Hong Kong it is for the information of its institutional and professional investor (as defined by Securities and Future Ordinance (Chapter 571)custom
104、ers only; it is not intended for and should not be distributed to retail customers in Hong Kong.If it is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. This documentis not and shoul
105、d not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. HSBC has based this document on information obtainedfrom sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; HSBC makes no guarantee, representation or warr
106、anty and accepts no responsibility or liability as toits accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of the Research Division of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. HSBC and its affiliates and/or theirofficers, directors and employees may have positions in any securiti
107、es mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of anysuch securities (or investment). HSBC and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in thisdocument (or in r
108、elated investments), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwritingservices for or relating to those companies. In Korea, this publication is distributed by either The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporati
109、on Limited, Seoul Securities Branch(“HBAP SLS”) or The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch (“HBAP SEL”) for the general information of professional investors specified in Article9 of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”). This publication is
110、not a prospectus as defined in the FSCMA. It may not be further distributed in wholeor in part for any purpose. Both HBAP SLS and HBAP SEL are regulated by the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service of Korea.HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the conte
111、nt of this research report prepared by its non-US foreign affiliate. All US persons receiving and/or accessing this reportand wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. in the United States and not with its non-US foreign affiliate, t
112、heissuer of this report.In the UK this report may only be distributed to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. Theprotections afforded by the UK regulatory regime are available only to those dealing with a repres
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116、r, without prejudice to any of the foregoing disclaimers,where this material is distributed to accredited investors or expert investors as defined in Regulation 2 of the Financial Advisers Regulations (“FAR”) of the Financial Advisers Act(Cap. 110) of Singapore (“FAA”), The Hongkong and Shanghai Ban
117、king Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch is exempted by Regulation 35 of the FAR from the requirements inSection 36 of the FAA mandating disclosure of any interest in securities referred to in this material, or in their acquisition or disposal. Recipients who do not fall within the descriptionof p
118、ersons under Regulations 34 and 35 of the Financial Advisers Regulations should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decisionbased on this document or for any necessary explanation of its contents. In Australia, this publication has been distributed b
119、y The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited (ABN 65 117 925 970, AFSL 301737) for the general information of its “wholesale” customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). Where distributed to retailcustomers, this research is distributed by HSBC Bank Australia Limited (AFSL No. 232
120、595). These respective entities make no representations that the products or servicesmentioned in this document are available to persons in Australia or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law. No consideration hasbeen given to the particular in
121、vestment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. This publication is distributed in New Zealand by The Hongkong andShanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR.In Japan, this publication has been distributed by HSBC Securities (
122、Japan) Limited. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose.In Canada, this document has been distributed by HSBC Bank Canada and/or its affiliates. Where this document contains market updates/overviews, or similar materials (collectivelydeemed “Commentary” in Canada althou
123、gh other affiliate jurisdictions may term “Commentary” as either “macro-research” or “research”), the Commentary is not an offer to sell, or asolicitation of an offer to sell or subscribe for, any financial product or instrument (including, without limitation, any currencies, securities, commodities
124、 or other financialinstruments). Copyright 2012, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, storedin a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying
125、, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of TheHongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch. MICA (P) 038/04/2012, MICA (P) 063/04/2012 and MICA (P) 206/01/201212abcGlobal Financial Institution Group Research TeamCarlo DigrandiGlobal Head of Financial Ins
126、titutions Research+44 20 7991 6843BanksEAsiaJames GarnerAnalyst, Head of Asian InsuranceRobin DownAnalyst, Global Sector Head, Banks+44 20 7991 6926 Monica Patrascu+44 20 7991 6828 Peter Toeman+44 20 7991 6791 Rob Murphy+852 2822 4321Michael Chang+852 2996 6555Grace Zhou+852 2822 3053Sinyoung Park+8
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128、 Banks Research+44 20 7991 6709 Aybek Islamov+44 20 7992 3624 Tamer Sengun+90 212 376 46 15 .trThomas Martin+49 211 910 3276 thomas.martinhsbc.deStphanie Dossmann+33 1 56 52 43 01 AsiaDerek KwongHead of Real Estate Equity Research, Asia+852 2996 6629 .hkAshutosh Narkar+91 22 2268 1474 ashutoshnarkar
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