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1、2008/092008/09年度中国饲养业发展形势年度中国饲养业发展形势Development Trend of Chinese Breeding Industryin 2008 / 09 国家首席兽医官国家首席兽医官 贾幼陵贾幼陵 Jia Youling National Chief Veterinary Officer 20082008年年6 6月月2626日日 青岛青岛中国饲养业发展形势 Oils and oilseeds industry is closely connected with the livestock and aquatic products breeding indu
2、stry. It not only directly provides the breeding industry with excellent soybean meal protein，but also indirectly provides it with feed additives such as soybean phosphatide, vitamin E and plant sterol. The development of livestock and aquatic products breeding industry needs the support of oils and
3、 oilseeds industry, while the development of oils and oilseeds requires the drive by livestock and aquatic products breeding industry. 油脂油料产业与畜牧水产养殖业关系密切，不仅直接为畜牧水产养殖业提供了优质的豆粕蛋白，而且还间接提供了大豆磷脂、维生素E和植物甾醇等饲料添加剂。畜牧水产养殖业发展需要油脂油料产业的支持，油脂油料产业的发展需要畜牧水产养殖业的拉动。 中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测Current Produ
4、ction Situation and Forecast of Stock RaisingF今年以来，畜牧业遭受冰雪和地震灾害，损失惨重（见表1、2），但在国家扶持畜牧业发展政策的强力推动、畜产品消费需求旺盛和市场拉动下，2008年一季度畜禽养殖量增加，畜禽产品产量稳步提高，畜牧业生产加快恢复。据国家统计局数据，一季度，猪牛羊禽肉产量1917万吨，同比增长3.7%，其中猪肉产量1284万吨，增长2.3%。农业部跟踪监测表明，当前畜牧业生产形势总体向好。 中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测Current Production Situation and F
5、orecast of Stock RaisingFDue to the strong support of government policy for livestock raising industry and great market demand for meat products since the beginning of this year, the first quarter of 2008 saw the increase of livestock and poultry breeding quantities, steady growth of livestock and p
6、oultry production and rapid recovery of the industry. According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics of China, meat output of pig, cattle, sheep and poultry in the first quarter of this year accounts for 19.17 million tons, up 3.7 % over the same period of last year. Of the above output, por
7、k amounts 12.84 million tons, up 2.3 %. According to the tracing monitor by the Ministry of Agriculture, current production situation of the industry is good on the whole. 中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测Current Production Situation and Forecast of Stock Raising种 类损失数量（万头/只）猪473.08牛66.6羊215禽709
8、6.9兔78.3马1.3179总计7930.5表1.南方冰雪灾害畜牧业损失情况中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测Current Production Situation and Forecast of Stock Raising种 类损失数量（万头/只）猪347.6497牛32.9524羊62.6464禽2640.776兔411.4423马0.1461总计3495.6129表2.汶川8.0级特大地震灾害畜牧业损失情况中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Pr
9、oduction of Stock Raising（一）生猪生产继续恢复，正在扭转生猪市场供（一）生猪生产继续恢复，正在扭转生猪市场供应偏紧的局面应偏紧的局面Production of living pigs continues to recover and the supply shortage situation of living pigs is turning round5月份，汶川8.0级特大地震后，四川、甘肃、陕西等灾 区生猪损失373万多头，但全国生猪生产恢复势头继续向好，生猪存出栏量继续增长（见表3、4）。同期，生猪价格继续回落，但由于饲养成本高，今后一段时间内猪产品价格仍将维
10、持较高水平（见表5）。中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Stock Raising类别同比增长率（）环比增长率（）总存栏量10.91.7能繁母猪存栏27.53.8规模养殖户生猪存栏18.0散养户生猪存栏5.8表3.五月份生猪存栏情况中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Stock Raising类别同比增长率（）环比增长率（）总出栏量12.2
11、4.8规模养殖户出栏20.0散户出栏6.5表4.五月份生猪出栏情况中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Stock Raising类 别价 格（元/公斤）同比增长率（）环比增长率（）仔猪36.11139.35.5活猪15.7754.66.5猪肉24.7155.83.8表5.五月份生猪价格情况中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Stock Rai
12、sing（二）牛奶产量增长，奶牛养殖效益回升（二）牛奶产量增长，奶牛养殖效益回升 Milk production increases and profit of milk cow raising recovers据行业预计，一季度奶牛存栏为1545万头，同比增长9.9%；奶类产量为850万吨，同比增长12.3%4月份奶业优势产区省份原料奶平均价格为2.86元/公斤，同比增长43.5%，环比下降2.5%目前，原料奶价格同比涨幅较大，奶牛养殖收益稳步回升，奶农养殖积极性进一步提高中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast
13、 of the Production of Stock Raising（三）蛋鸡生产保持增长，养殖回升（三）蛋鸡生产保持增长，养殖回升Layer production continues increasing and profit of poultry feeding recovers据农业部统计，一季度全国禽蛋产量692万吨，增长6.2；预计上半年禽蛋产量同比增长约7父母代种鸡销每周稳定在50万套左右，商品代蛋雏鸡销量每周稳定在500万套左右，价格均稳定上升今年以来，蛋鸡养殖继续处在亏损状态，但据农业部监测，6月上旬鸡蛋平均价格达到6.68元/公斤，已接近饲养成本，淘汰鸡售价比去年每只增加近
14、5元，养鸡效益回升中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Stock Raising（四）牛羊肉生产稳定发展，价格维持在较高水平（四）牛羊肉生产稳定发展，价格维持在较高水平Beef and mutton production steadily develops and price level maintains rather high.据行业预计一季度牛、羊肉产量分别为240万吨和132万吨，分别增长3.6%和0.4%据全国470个集贸市场价格定点监测数据，4月份第5周（
15、采集日为4月30日），牛肉平均价格为31.56/公斤，同比增长57.2%，周环比下降0.2%；羊肉平均价格为31.67元/公斤，同比增长50，周环比持平中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Stock Raising（五）存在问题（五）存在问题Problems existed in stock raising畜牧业生产水平较低资源瓶颈制约较大动物疫病防控形势依然严峻环境污染日益突出畜牧业科技支撑能力弱饲养成本大幅上升中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧
16、业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Stock Raising（六）生产预测（六）生产预测 Forecast of the production of Stock raising2008年，我国畜牧业将在市场拉动、政策促动、工作推动等多种力量同向合力作用下，保持较高的速度加快恢复和发展，畜产品总量将继续增加，畜产品价格将保持在较高水平，畜牧业产值在农业总产值中的比重将进一步提高，农民来自畜牧业的现金收入将有所增加。 It is expected that in 2008, due to the factors such
17、as driving by the market, promoting by policies and pushing by our work, Chinese livestock breeding industry will keep rapid recovery and development, with total output to be continuously increased, prices maintaining high level, ratio of its value in total agricultural production value to be furthe
18、r raised and farmers income in cash from the industry to be increased.中国饲养业发展形势一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测一、畜牧业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Stock Raising（六）生产预测（六）生产预测 Forecast of the production of Stock raising2009年，我国畜牧业仍将延续较好的发展势头又好又快发展，建设现代畜牧业的步伐将进一步加快，畜产品供给水平将进一步提高。 In 2009，Chinese
19、livestock raising industry will keep better and quicker development, our pace for building modern livestock raising will be further accelerated, our supply of livestock products will be further improved. 中国饲养业发展形势二、渔业生产情况和生产预测二、渔业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Fishery（一）生产情况（一
20、）生产情况 Situation of the Production of Fishery 据农业部渔业局调查，今年一季度，全国水产品产量为824万吨，比上年同期增长3.9%。其中，海洋捕捞202万吨，与上年同期持平；海水养殖产品172万吨，同比增长3.5%；淡水产品产量450万吨，同比增长6% According to the Fishery Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture, In the first quarter of 2008, total output of Chinese aquatic products amounts 8.24 million to
21、ns, up 3.9 % over the same period of last year. Of the above total amount, marine catching accounts for 2.02 million tons, similar to the same period of last year, sea water products breeding amounts to 1.72 million tons, up 3.5 % over the same period of last year, and fresh water products breeding
22、amounts to 4.5 million tons , up 6 % over the same period of lat year. 中国饲养业发展形势二、渔业生产情况和生产预测二、渔业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Fishery（一）生产情况（一）生产情况 Situation of the Production of Fishery 淡水主产区损失严重（见表6） Major producing areas of fresh water breeding suffered serious losses fro
23、m national disasters. 受灾面积（万亩）成鱼（万吨）苗鱼（万吨）经济损失（亿元）冰雪灾害16578642140地震灾害51.2.940.3915总 计170888.9442.39155表6 冰雪和地震灾害渔业损失情况中国饲养业发展形势二、渔业生产情况和生产预测二、渔业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Fishery（一）生产情况（一）生产情况 Situation of Fishery for its Production 水生动物发病率大幅上升 Disease outbreaks of aquatic
24、 animals greatly increased. 据监测，32个养殖种类发生51种病害，发病率和死亡率都有不同程度上升，特别是水霉病部分地区呈暴发趋势。 中国饲养业发展形势二、渔业生产情况和生产预测二、渔业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Fishery（二）水产品贸易形势日趋复杂（二）水产品贸易形势日趋复杂 Trade situation of aquatic products is becoming more and more complicated.一般贸易和来进料加工出口均呈下降趋势。 一季度，一般贸易出口
25、量30万吨，出口额9.5亿美元，同比下降9.1%和5.3%；来进料加工出口量16.1万吨，出口额5.7亿美元，同比下降11.2%和7.3%。对虾、鳗鱼、大黄鱼出口出现严重下滑，出口额分别下降19.3%、30%和30.7%。水产品进口呈高速增长趋势。一季度，进口54.7万吨，进口额7亿元，同比分别增加29.4和23.8。其中，鱼粉进口17.2万吨，同比增长73.1；食用水产品进口17.9万吨，同比增长55.7中国饲养业发展形势二、渔业生产情况和生产预测二、渔业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of Fishery for its Production（三）存在问题
26、（三）存在问题Problems existed in fishery存在环境污染和疫病暴发潜在危险水产品质量安全等潜在隐患不容忽视渔（农）民增收难度加大中国饲养业发展形势二、渔业生产情况和生产预测二、渔业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Fishery（四）生产预测（四）生产预测 Forecast of the Production of Fishery从当前看，因养殖场户担心受冻的水产品继续死亡，把二季度上市的产品提前上市。受此影响，二季度淡水养殖产品供给趋于偏紧。同时，长江进入“春禁”休渔时期，沿海渔业资源状况未见明
27、显的恢复迹象，因此，捕捞水产品总量总体持平或略减。 As farmers worried about continuous death of aquatic products under low temperature, they sent those products originally prepared for the second quarter to market in advance. Therefore, supply fresh water aquatic products in the second quarter of this year would become tigh
28、t. As the Changjiang River entered its spring fishing banning period, fish resource along sea coast show no obvious signs of recovery, total amount of aquatic products catch would be at the same level or slightly reduced on the whole.中国饲养业发展形势二、渔业生产情况和生产预测二、渔业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the
29、Production of Fishery（四）生产预测（四）生产预测 Forecast of the Production of Fishery从全年看，这次灾害没有造成养殖生产能力的重大破坏，养殖场户的生产积极性没有受到灾害的影响而降低，灾后重建、补放苗种比较快，全年水产品供给总量可以保持平衡。 To forecast for the whole year, the above-mentioned disasters did not make very heavy damages to the production capacity of aquatic farming, and farm
30、ers zeal were not affected. Due to quick reconstruction and supplementing fries in time after the disasters, total supply of aquatic production would be sufficient for the whole year.中国饲养业发展形势三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Feed（一）生产情况（一）生产情况 Situation of t
31、he production of feed2008年第一季度，饲料行业克服了原料价格持续上涨和南方冰雪灾害等不利因素的影响，总体上保持了快速稳定发展的势头。 In the first quarter of 2008, feed industry removed negative impacts such as rise of raw material price, snow and ice storm in South China, keeping rapid and steady development trend on the whole.中国饲养业发展形势三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测三
32、、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Feed（一）生产情况（一）生产情况 Situation of the production of feed从品种结构看，预计猪饲料总产量900万吨，同比增长12.4%；蛋禽饲料540万吨，同比增长7.5%；肉禽饲料890万吨，同比增长21.3%；水产饲料230万吨，同比下降13.6%；反刍动物饲料80万吨，同比增长3.5%；其他饲料60万吨，同比增长15.1%。 As far as various kinds of feeds are concerned, it is est
33、imated that total production of pig feed accounts for 9 million tons, up 12.4 % over the same period of last year, egg-poultry feed accounts for 5.4 million tons, up7.5 % over the same period of last yea, meat-poultry feed accounts for 8.9 million tons, up 21.3 % over the same period of last year, a
34、quatic product feed accounts for 2.3 million tons, down 13.6 % from the same period of last year, ruminant cattle feed accounts for 800 000tons，up 3.5 % over the same period of last year , other feeds accounts for 600 000 tons, up 15.1 % over the same period of last year.中国饲养业发展形势三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测三、饲料
35、工业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Feed（一）生产情况（一）生产情况 Situation of the production of feed从区域发展情况看，西部十一省平均增幅最高，达到17.4%，东部十省为9.8%，东北三省和中 部六省为6.5%。 As for regional development, 11 provinces in West China enjoy the highest average growth rate reaching 17.4 %, while 10 provinces in E
36、ast China is of 9.8 %, and 3 provinces in Northeast China and 6 provinces in Central China are of 6.5 %.中国饲养业发展形势三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Feed（二）一季度饲料工业运行特点：（二）一季度饲料工业运行特点： The operation of feed industry in the first quarter of this year shows the fo
37、llowing characteristics:生产快速发展 Production develops quickly成本持续增加 Costs persistently rise克服冰冻雪灾冲击 Impacts of snow and ice storm disasters have been overcome中国饲养业发展形势三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Feed（三）存在问题（三）存在问题 Problems in feed production产品质量安全隐患依然存在国家原
38、粮价格对国内饲料原料供应冲击力度明显加大企业数量多规模小竞争力不强 中国饲养业发展形势三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测三、饲料工业生产情况和生产预测 Situation and Forecast of the Production of Feed预计2008年饲料工业将在去年全国饲料总产量1.23亿吨的基础上，继续呈现出产量增长、结构优化、企业规模扩大、行业整合加速、产业素质提升的良好发展势头，全年工业饲料总产量将超过1.3亿吨。 It is expected that in 2008 our feed industry will show a trend of further increase
39、 on the basis of Chinese total feed production of 123 million tons last year, and a trend of improvement of structure, expansion of enterprises scales, acceleration of industry consolidation as well as enhancement of industry qualities, and total industrial feed output of the whole year will exceed 130 million tons.（四）生产预测（四）生产预测 Forecast of the production of feed中国饲养业发展形势谢谢 谢谢 ！Thank you for your attention!中国饲养业发展形势
