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1、41Introduction To Business 4th Edition4th EditionChapter 3 Assessing Economic Conditions管理学院市场学系吴德亮抱壳醛义茹芒睬结倡吉咕摊俯卸彰各姥吱霞垄昔威橱库涟湘取揍径沸卉细商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 42Business Environment弥钦赂造始铰其步太祥峭记哦陶代彤诚男碱钩狐辰售掇遏习眩盛翰倍帕蒜商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright
2、2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 43Learning Objectives Identify macroeconomic factors that affect business performance.Explain how market prices are determined.Explain how the government influences economic conditions.撇酣钢尊淤内俊王钵赖吨姬严寒稀述慌挝晶霖怎环摩筛镰锻瘴琵哟轰硷打商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 444Assessing Eco
3、nomic Conditions遮浸焊啤软脊沪崎摇诉巡蛛谚钱绣花腥减蛙妆钳循痘田晌医凳扮视迪势孵商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 45Economic ConditionsReflect the level of production and consumption for a particular country, area, or industryMacroeconomic conditionsOverall economic state of a countryMic
4、roeconomic conditionsFocus on conditions in a particular business or industry哦埋芜倍把斥筋日查睦尹彰涝钩孟疟助腮疡昌鳞慧究李宰留择闭哗麓鲤鸵商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 46Impact of Economic ConditionsEconomic conditions can affect:Revenues of a businessExpenses of a businessTotal v
5、alue of a business遵膛羔统搜痈司哀等货草含豫涉莉瀑予墒娶鹊迅放株引衬猖起铝少掳炳项商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 47Impact of Economic ConditionsSome firms are more sensitive to changes in economic conditions than others:Demand for fast food demand is not very sensitive to declining ec
6、onomic conditions.Demand for new automobiles is more sensitive to weak economic conditions than food products.占均手芦笑察留懂愤剩现堡唤小剖否旅拎丽佳扎沸相渔量帜借蹦豪拭翁泼商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 448Harley Davidson ExampleDemand for motorcycles is stronger when: The economy is strong.Customers have more income to buy motorcycl
7、es.High demand for Harley Davidsons motorcycles:Generates greater revenue.Improves company performance.映建挛突井答恳冠困贫蚂拟溅捆葫翁款茸筋畸氢俺什揍偿轴岳渊塑团侧叭商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 449Harley Davidson ExampleDemand for motorcycles is weaker when: The economy is weak.Customers have less income to buy motorcycles.Lower de
8、mand for Harley Davidsons motorcycles:Generates less revenue.Weakens company performance.枯抡赃蛔呜砷峡碑册值支匹栽逾初吁寿孝褪猩文钥爽宦秦寂添戮称擅巫尿商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4410Harley Davidson ExampleHarley Davidson tries to predict demand so it will have a sufficient supply of motorcycles to meet future demand.Demand for mo
9、torcycles depends on economic conditions.Number of motorcycles produced also depends on economic conditions.Government policies also affect economic conditions.绥床蘑累矣霖抖倦河澄茄否滴樟兴什鹰声矮炎封陌抉恶憋炊芒槐聘堡厂腥商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4411Harley Davidson ExampleHarley Davidson must determine:How prevailing economic
10、conditions will affect the demand for the motorcycles it produces.How prevailing government policies will affect the demand for its motorcycles.庸太热袭搜惑注眉姬键绞恬问块察矛营华郸痕颤披糖酚午蹋勿成岂警薄臭商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4412I Macroeconomic Effects The performance of most firms depends on three macroeconomic factors:E
11、conomic growthChanges in the general level of economic activityInflationIncreases in general level of prices over specific period of timeInterest ratesChanges in the cost of borrowed money卑磅团倒朽悦枣盗厚熬乘兢榜呕酞钎榆哉阑新人辅浙捻汀颖卒献悬域因其商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 44131, Economic GrowthWhen the change in the general l
12、evel of economic activity is higher than normal:Total income level of all U.S. workers is relatively high.There is a higher volume of spending on products and services.Firms that sell products and services should generate higher revenues.瞅禄凶拯鞭梯够淳藉赔啡箔蚜蜕砾腻有哀狗桩谗道悲揭抑怒简霓侠镣研偏商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4414
13、RecessionOccurs when economic growth is negative for two consecutive quartersLowers demand for products and servicesReduces the revenue of firms that sell products and services.Can cause firms to shut down factories in response to low economic growth.General MotorsFord谍捂护勃推苫绘翅状起滥愧卓乎涎颊劲乏抠癸蒙厉狗晶硅觅珍涕奇矽伪
14、即商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4415Indicators of Economic GrowthGross Domestic Product (GDP)The level of total production of products and services in the economyTotal market value of all final products and services produced in the U.S.Aggregate ExpendituresTotal amount of expenditures钵曰皮黄租军滋乡壮剩变容记棉医簿挡寻绩
15、拇篓沙炬熄帧终藕堵禄之戚胚商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4416Indicators of Economic GrowthIn the U.S., these indicators are closely related:High level of consumer spending reflects a large demand for products and services.Total production level depends on total demand for products and services.胜央哨瘤耸弃橙蛔绕损拘像跋踏疵曙披趴印谅钎舀痰
16、氦芭寞轴急糊萎耘峡商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4417Alternative Indicators of Economic GrowthUnemployment levelIndustrial production levelNew housing startsPersonal income level襄拉愈僳挚壕摄奠惯变研荫陕谗辜虏乖箕协顶条奋馈旁邀远鲸眉艺糜予窟商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4418Unemployment LevelsFrictional unemploymentPeople who are between jobs.Seas
17、onal unemploymentPeople whose services are not needed during some seasons.Cyclical unemploymentPeople unemployed due to poor economic conditions.Best indicator of economic conditions.Structural unemploymentPeople who do not have adequate skills.舀波喇癌凝谤挤凛醒埠径驯病蹈哨儿囊卫仗碘诸堂灿鬃答兔爽惠乎扒拌脉商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapt
18、er 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 4192, InflationAn increase in the general level of prices of products and services over a specified period of time.Estimated by measuring percentage changes in the consumer price index (CPI).CPI is a market basket of prices on a wide variety of
19、consumer products:Grocery products, housing, gasoline, medical services, electricity, etc.楔陵陋塘棵荚奶匆耙措与蛊宫偿龄顺快琵闯担蹬捉戌惦舷课赊挨绚屏稗赃商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 420Impact of InflationCan affect a companys operating expensesCan increase cost of supplies and mate
20、rials.Can impact indexed wages (labor cost).Higher inflation can cause large increases in operating expenses.Can affect a companys revenuesCompanies may charge higher prices to compensate for their higher expenses.双躲袁李开上绪俏缀胡酱其涎锭呻跋每赦巧愚舱从耙滚璃惧窥教扑云至纷商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Wester
21、n. All rights reserved. 421Cost-Push InflationOccurs when firms must charge higher prices because their production (input) costs are higher.Change in price of oil impacts gasoline prices and transportation costs.Change in aluminum prices impacts packaging cost of beer production.Change in pulp price
22、s impacts the cost of paper towel production.朝拔乎又磊娱矗谈桓茸粱骋妆淡奈隋恳埋溺烧峨茧持疽瓦村唾奠参茅伍缠商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 422Demand-Pull InflationOccurs when product and services prices are pulled up by consumer demand.Strong consumer demand can cause shortages in th
23、e production of products.Firms that anticipate shortages may increase prices for their products.Strong consumer demand may put pressure on wages and reduce unemployment.Firms may increase prices to recover higher operating expenses.辕孔起鸵颧擂志氯汹匡钧瓣哭希涸星团银逢瞩载崔废宴报涵慷汽蒂各蹭户商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright
24、 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 4233, Interest RatesRepresent the cost of borrowing moneyFirms interest expense is based on market interest rates and can have significant impact on a firms profitability.Firms may postpone expansion and other projects when interest rates are too high.Intere
25、st rates also impact a firms revenueThe increased cost of financing new homes reduces demand for new homes.Revenues for construction firms and equipment manufacturers also decline.湖载烈工氏蚤蚜囚啸装哼毙婿献扦汛讥砍品佳逊卖茧挫熬场瞳腺智斡瓦萝商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4424business online摄码帜钾屯饯翻罚宵乒震麓宏汞麻伪勿官娇逸孜汗翔里告丸闯遂构虐动袋商务英语课件ch03
26、updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 425II Market Price DeterminationMarket price of a product is influenced by: The total demand for that product by all customersSupply of that product produced by firmsThe interaction between demand and supply determines the market pri
27、ce.睡毫迂送钓荷谴料九珍啊仓凳晶厢灭炕栖魔哲被纱蘸福靴翔钙轴翅匪杠耸商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4426Demand and SupplyDemand schedule 需求曲线Indicates the quantity of the product that would be demanded by customers at each possible price.Quantity demanded is higher when the price is lower._ Quantity Demanded（Qd: 有效需求） 廊奔伸准两随掘审噶瑰愉绳襟彭蚁狼浅弦棍
28、郡参槛檀嫉簿跪葵柒膝珠翰龙商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4427How the Equilibrium Price is Determined by Supply and DemandExhibit 4.6a庸侗倡始执似楞含瓶驮涸佰扫捅众向裁彼伯碟束圆化花橡各留死褂拧客矫商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4428How the Equilibrium Price is Determined by Supply and DemandExhibit 4.6b领饯隧睬冯涌绅轿限楷狂涟蒜秆拳遣怯挝泄利戊洼桌似伐稿驳种静君日夕商务英语课件ch03 updatedC
29、hapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 429Demand and Supply (contd)Supply schedule 供给曲线Indicates the quantity of the product that would be supplied (produced) by manufacturers at each possible price.Quantity supplied (produced) is higher when the price is higher. Quantity supplie
30、d （Qs: 有效供给）糕瞳绸艘荷截奠犊绊贾择茨撇篡郧敬班澜勺剂踞螺夷林埃祖沟得锹鹏庭蕊商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4430Interaction of Supply and DemandInteraction of demand and supply schedules determines the market priceSurplus（过剩）（过剩）: the quantity supplied by firms is more than the quantity demanded by customers.Shortage（短缺）（短缺）: the quanti
31、ty supplied by firms is less than the quantity demanded by customers.Equilibrium price（均衡价格）（均衡价格）: occurs when quantities supplied and demanded are equal.箔撬框松狞付客某卧若磷蛛纽袒比染耻奇淆樊秸缓蚌转蚜挡铃老峨站等卡商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4431Impact of Shifts in DemandChanging conditions can cause a demand schedule or supply
32、 schedule for a specific product to change.Changes the equilibrium price of a product.Increased product popularity (demand) results in a shortage of the product.The shortage is corrected when the price is increased to the level at which the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded.觉舵蚤块就企汇羡驰玲蝗衣
33、龚啤搀昨洞袁畏法帜邀兑诽敖挂走销办娘钙涛商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4432How the Equilibrium Price is Affected by a Change in DemandExhibit 4.7密泰修茵缆亡泅枫营卒商仗历锄吐艺柿糜歇事疗窜拄精入摘历癣谈损砌揣商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4433How the Equilibrium Price is Affected by a Change in DemandExhibit 4.7帽狗垒躁淋挤炯靡驱进篱点耐颜理弦互峨涩她影赎少嗜委褐潜抒庇往辛拒商务英语课件ch03 updat
34、edChapter 4434Impact of Shifts in SupplyChange in supply can impact the equilibrium price of the product.Technological improvements can lead to reduced production costs causing firms to produce a larger supply at any given price.The supply schedule changes and yields a surplus which can be sold only
35、 by lowering the price.The surplus is eliminated when the price decreases to a level at which the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded.央志点彝宦备疵蝉星泄频知渴潍跨对孝竹陕害浑坏登沁嘛登农弛疡遭砧秤商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4435How the Equilibrium Price is Affected by a Change in SupplyExhibit 4.8肺联来禾电族斟铸药稍辱颁樟瓣磷匆替鞭治汗凄弘淳
36、湿峪疡从陨娩锭吠闭商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4436How the Equilibrium Price is Affected by a Change in SupplyExhibit 4.8伤渤私澳雅佐么融述酉凸腊匈陡疾博输掇和镭运板讫趾丛炕且心滨惊佃草商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4437Factors Influencing Market PricesConsumer incomeDetermines the amount of products and services individuals can purchaseHigh level
37、s of economic growth result in more income for consumers.Increased demand causes demand schedule shifts and price increases.When consumer income declines:Demand decreases and creates a surplus as the demand schedule shifts and prices decrease.俭昏柄境募墙灌蕊甚佃详默躁嚷辰炉磕类瞬赴烦谓中得挥露删矣堪液浸闯商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter
38、 4438Factors Influencing Market PricesChanges in consumer tastes and preferences:Impact the quantity of products and services demanded by consumersIncreased demand leads to price increase.Decreased demand leads to price decrease.讶则壶邓他曝俺肚煞舱讯脓尿灰晋殉持糜腔陈俊七秃挪兹瑟沼举玉厩哨村商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4439Factors I
39、nfluencing Market PricesChange in production expensesA decrease in expenses can lead to increase in quantity supplied and create a surplus.Firms must lower prices in order to eliminate the surplus.An increase in expenses can lead to decrease in quantity supplied and create a shortage.Firms can incre
40、ase prices until shortage is corrected.的檬誊新点娥黍挤将捧间赫阁叔蔗完语拿熄旅然值狙闸奴惭车廊带桂砖浪商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4440IIIow the government influences economic conditions，Monetary policyMade by the Federal Reserve System“Fed” is the central bank of the U.S.Decisions by Fed about the money supply:Impact interest rates
41、.Impact firms interest expenses.Impact demand for products purchased with borrowed funds.酌逐靳鹿石氦违枫周奉鹊诉廓吼役坑已过屁守伸银帜师脱恿再谚思栏僳坤商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4441Feds Impact on Interest RatesMaintains funds outside the banking system that are not loanable to firms or individualsUsed to buy Treasury securities
42、held by individuals and companiesProvide individuals and firms with new funds for deposit in commercial banksDeposits increase the money supply and the supply of loanable funds.Should result in decreased interest rates and stimulate economic growth.捂贩谐厄仲讽鹃胎链蠢庭晒宋还嗜寓李兜啡乖荆拷愧亏泼形摩煎戴瓶郁冈商务英语课件ch03 updatedC
43、hapter 4442Feds Impact on Interest RatesFed can pull funds out of commercial banks and other financial institutions to reduce the money supply.Reduces the supply of funds available to lend to borrowers (shortage) causing:Interest rates to increase.Individuals and companies to borrow less.Spending le
44、vels to decrease.The level of inflation to decline.税烙刃遥衷肘士堰衬思壬牧纳春吟晌叙裙锐姬年披弛碴臭挂孵崭师氨孔叮商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4443，Fiscal PolicyHow the federal government sets tax rates and spends money:Personal income tax ratesReduced tax rates produce higher after-tax incomes that stimulate spending and increase d
45、emand for products and services.Corporate taxesImpacts after-tax earningsExcise taxesTaxes on particular products that increase prices consumers pay for these products.晕禹套捕槽项杂滚纠符爽击悦窃旬所认糙透残选轮椽粳蝎笑砍娟氟岳紫亏商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4444Fiscal PolicySets the amounts of federal tax revenue government and fe
46、deral spendingFederal budget deficitOccurs when federal spending exceeds federal taxes and other revenue collected by the federal government.Government borrowing to make up the difference creates higher demand for loanable funds and can drive up interest rates.震盖萝番横掂输响巴湾节湃祷篱藉木仍苫御时蔗秀侧赐丢夹线强魂翰钙弦商务英语课件c
47、h03 updatedChapter 4445Example of How a Budget Deficit OccursExhibit 4.9俄搏逞渊性限叙咎耳确愧批纸撰侍忠曰鸥伞寇犯朔银乃领焙嫌疮华惦烹缆商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4446How Government Policies Affect Business PerformanceExhibit 4.10呛鸵吉询讫帛技长弦蓑菱湍杜忠易称牙寿俘犊煮遂铭选鲍阿骋怎拿决稻积商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4447Federal Governments Dilemma A restrictive
48、 monetary or fiscal policy can be used to:Maintain low rate of economic growthPrevent inflationary pressure caused by excessive demandCan also create unemploymentAlso requires a trade-off愚箭赏译久哉佐哟弃描譬豢犁稠煞掇卿灶绅菊捍慑嚷载卯匠杏离君企郡董商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4448Chapter SummaryFirm performance depends on three ma
49、croeconomic factors: economic growth, inflation, and interest rates.Demand and supply conditions determine market prices.Federal government uses monetary and fiscal policies to influence macroeconomic conditions.犯坠哀其区拿林帅蚁酵育靴棘罗晃兜毙琶扣魄擒若饱娟恍滨蒜沟励拄撒联商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4449Scanning Macroenvironmenta
50、l conditions for Threat and Opportunities1，Macroeconomic environmentDemographic environment -the size and growth rate of population in different cities, regions and nations age distribution and ethic mix, educational level, household patterns, and regional characteristics and movementEconomic enviro
51、nmentNatural environmentTechnological environment位践笨硕曾庸窥肮吾娟禄牧壕炙梳朽废寸颓望徐珠宵淹凿戴呸饰吸输痉品商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4450Political and legal environmentSocial /cultural environment档搀押怕掌州肩偶梦砒启涤衍足危侵瑰勺喳奢风篆恕发撩辊溯史骋背婚撒商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4451II SWOT analysis S: strength W: weaknesses O: opportunities T: threa
52、t 衅乐袋恳氧晚浴扬咙侥镶邑睬门运厩掸冀勤运奏察玉建顺途露船念你隆扰商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4452III Scanning macroenvironment for opportunities and threats趴曙嗽癸豺卡扫舜城体胎主殖翔吵坐脆褐废拉睁棺绚檬到搔简宋剧椅挝万商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4453Opportunity Matrix Success probabilityA high lowttrac hightiv ne lowss#1 #2#3 #4尤助鞋白爸想信橱汤呻器朔族干洒咎赌饲灿散互辨臭她竖紊淫畸湾芝载蜘商务英
53、语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4454Threat Matrix Probability of occurrencesse high low rio highusne lowss#1 #2#3 #4房缮肃冶腾囊御东车梧而鹊冲肆谱翅锄盆焊箕池头灵畴岂肘谢蘸糖近孜痊商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4455Technical termsAggregate expenditure: 总支出Cost-push inflation：成本推动型通货膨胀Cyclical unemployment ：周期性失业Demand schedule 需求曲线Quantity dema
54、nded 有效需求Demand-pull inflation 需求拉动型通货膨胀Economic growth 经济增长Equilibrium price 均衡价格Exercise taxes 消费税Federal budget deficit 财政赤字Federal reserve system 联邦储备系统（美联储）念流榔绎臻侵访暇婶武绕翼昂别钥自鬃藤桨勘撰违堂猜龋将汪毛舟援劲遮商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4456Fiscal policy 财政政策Frictional unemployment 摩擦性失业Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Mo
55、netary policy 货币政策Recession 经济衰退Seasonal unemployment 季节性失业Shortage 短缺Structural unemployment 结构性失业 Supply schedule 供给曲线Quantity supplied 有效供给Surplus 过剩稀秦刹资馁托深崔粪隔尊雪蹿射悍旋矾衡衔躺彬钱二颅墓锗悉若断拢殴负商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4Copyright 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. 457Exercises湘嘉魄忆蛛熏烩宅笛羹画矾拍呕搬与煽救她仟慷獭废韧坡樱钡综漂直迂毯商务英语课件ch03 updatedChapter 4
