《青龙管业(002457)跟踪报告：订单爆发如期显现业绩拐点即将来临0114》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《青龙管业(002457)跟踪报告：订单爆发如期显现业绩拐点即将来临0114（10页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、-/)00245720131149.4914.00PCCP20124.7430201325PCCP021-S1010511020001021-6876816220%50%PVC2012-2020 20132020201237.92.42011180%6.7520136.752012Wind2013201312012-32012/2013/2014EPS0.28 /0.54/0.750.28/0.42/0.56201325PE14201085220119952012E7862013E14932014E1964YoY%YoY%EPS%ROE%3.212335.90.3733.88.610.2316
2、.8120-2.30.3628.07.86.88-21.095-21.00.2828.15.94.8290.018191.90.5429.710.35.2631.625038.10.7529.712.75.8720131234567891011121334 A002457PCCP.1.3.4.5.1.1.1.1.2.2.2.3.3.4.4.5.51/.32 2012.4.5.612010/022010/042010/062010/082010/102010/122011/032011/052011/072011/092011/112012/022012/042012/062012/080024
3、57PCCP2011110202012010104210%20116%5%4%3%2%5.0%3.0%4000350030002500200015001000500%35302520151051%0%1.1%0.9%E00PCCPPCCPPCCP2012PCCPPCCP34201320141020122013PCCP2012100245764.745304.742562013PCCP7200245750%1000528%PVCPE184/920%2000200620101201213002012201238%80%12-202020100.5533002457102013wind2008200
4、911200820102011201120122012201220122011PCCP2.429%6.756.757.920132012 2.4180%201320132 201210101125269110.862.321.132012.11.10-2013.12.312013.5.30-2014.6.302012.11.12-2013.6.3011121370.71111111111725252621351.090.510.910.382012.12.20-2013.10.202013.1.19-2013.10.192013.1.19-2013.11.192013.1.10-2013.9.
5、107.92201179.6%4(/)(/)(/)(0024571213916100%87657.92141210880%60%40%43213.532.10.951.2364220%0%-20%00-40%20082009201020112012200720082009201020112012E 2013E3201020112012E2013E2014E(km)200240170190260PCPPCCPRCPPVCPE/km)(km)/km)(km)/km)50000037.00%160170000039.00%20048000040.00%30000900030.50%500012000
6、23.00%50500032.00%200170000032.00%24048000030.00%32000900026.00%65001200020.00%50500032.00%150160000032.00%20050000029.00%25000880028.00%60001150022.00%50200031.00%470160000032.00%23050000031.00%29000890028.00%70001180023.00%50000030.00%600159000031.50%30050000031.00%35000910029.00%100001250023.00%3
7、0006000HDPE(km)/km)2100038.00%11000055023%2100038.00%16000055023%596217.50%4918715417.00%5938858517.00%7125944317.00%78381038717.00%862250024572012-2014EPS20130.28/0.54/0.7525 PE140.28/0.42/0.564 AEPSPE12E13E14E12E13E14E002205.SZ002619.SZ300198.SZ12.610.4537.230.160.2810.430.491.50.640.621.727937372
8、92125201722512519wind20131116002457201085256420119957172012E7865652013E1,4931,0502014E1,9581,377201078532920116123322012E8262622013E9184872014E1,20563833.81% 27.97% 28.06% 29.65% 29.71%3054773764856365677.85%607.08%27636.33%636.35%-126546.90%698.80%-1011976.50%1127.50%-6141216.20%1276.50%81261,54417
9、31059331351,5562091077201091,5732231095131992,0892201097152612,74021510100160.26%-1.16% -1.24% -0.39%0.40%275316341343341014701460110021602971,81951,87351,91452,4322083,08154517.25% 14.70% 14.02% 14.47% 15.15%829273135177721522723145249111824912244391305552523390142143110151962740163006440173661,089
10、01817.38% 16.57% 20.00% 19.00% 18.00%141516171831231120095018102503531403262232903356603351,10633514.39% 12.03% 12.03% 12.15% 12.76%201020112012E2013E2014E9851,428381,8199321,537101,8738211,614101,9148211,762102,4328211,965103,08112312095181250201020112012E2013E2014E31000%23-1891027-2161028168-1931-
11、271734-2722216.95.24.816.8-0.4-2.3-21.0-24.7-21.090.096.091.931.237.437.7-30-58272-5234%-46-63-52-32-3233.828.028.129.729.7001700-3000000000EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin18.321.014.414.617.312.011.615.212.014.917.012.216.318.012.8-29-66-52-32-32%857-1080001020403388.66.98.16.66.05.010.78.413.49.1-38-42-18
12、-34-47%127236631-42-16510-7213617693-828428619.417.434.217.416.618.615.120.018.627.219.018.635.918.018.67-Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certifythat: (i) the views expressed in this research
13、 report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securitiesand issuers; and (ii) no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.“”/()(1)(2)/20131300
14、20%663003005%-10%20%5%2300630030030030030010%10%-10% 10%10%481568811001252220012251804826Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China SecuritiesRegulatory Co
15、mmission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITICSecurities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” asdefined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.“”Z203740001934“”15a-6(a) (2)15a-6
