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1、高盛国际高盛国际2012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲策略焦点证券研究报告检验股票估值（第三部分）：席勒市盈率的压力测试目前欧洲股票市盈率的 10 年均值较历史水平有很大的折让。如果将历史作为引导，那么这一折让意味着股票投资者未来的实际回报将较高。然而，投资者往往强调未来增长放缓和结构性下滑行业的权重是估值倍数较低的原因。我们发现，即使对未来增长作出较为保守的假设，股票投资者的实际回报前景依然具有吸引力。目前股市较长期均值仍具有折让，即使在剔除价格最低的行业或国家后也是如此。目前的低估值隐含未来的高回报基于正常化盈利的估值显示目前欧洲股市的潜在回报具有吸引力。衡量方法之一便是将当前股价用市盈率的
2、10 年均值相除，且两者皆为实际值（往往被称为格拉汉姆-多德方法或席勒市盈率）。目前欧洲股市的席勒市盈率为 12.1 倍，相对历史均值 18.2 倍存在 34%的折让。从历史的角度看，低估值往往意味着未来的高实际回报。然而，许多投资者认为未来经济增速和盈利增长的放缓是估值较低的主Matthieu Walterspiler+44(20)7552-3403 彼得欧品海默+44(20)7552-5782 高盛国际要原因，而不是市场真正具有吸引力。Sharon Bell, CFA未来增长或更加缓慢，但估值仍显示股票投资者的回报可能具有吸引力盈利增长的确可能低于历史水平。欧洲公司的利润率已与美国同业趋近
3、，不太可能再度上升。然而，即使对未来盈利增长作出较为保守的假设，我们发现股票投资者依然预计可获得年均 6.2%的实际投资回报。估值水平低的情况不限于几个板块或国家虽然金融、公用事业和电信板块正在压低整个欧洲股市的估值水平，但若剔除这些板块，市场的估值水平将仍较历史均值存在折让（只是幅度缩小）。此外，根据行业分类基准（ICB）划分的 19 个超行业中有 16 个的经周期因素调整后市盈率较历史均值存在折让。类似的，尽管欧元区边缘国家部分导致了目前的低估值水平，欧洲核心国家和非欧元市场也较长期均值存在折让。+44(20)7552-1341 高盛国际Gerald Moser+44(20)7774-57
4、25 高盛国际Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA+44(20)7774-1714 christian.mueller-Anders Nielsen+44(20)7552-3000 高盛国际高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。高盛集团高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究22012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲Te
5、sting equity valuations part 3: Shiller PEThis report is the third and last in our series taking a critical look at how to use valuationin the aftermath of the financial crisis. Strategy Matters: Testing equity valuations part 1: Isthe low bond yield deceiving us? (October 5, 2012) analysed how to v
6、alue equity marketsin the current environment of extremely low yields. Testing equity valuations part 2:Equities vs. bonds (October 16, 2012) looked at the impact of the relative yield on equity vs.bond performance in different bond yield environments. In this report, we look at thecurrent low cycli
7、cally adjusted PE and whether it can be explained by lower future growthor by specific sectors and countries.As we have highlighted in previous research (see: GOAL - Global Strategy Paper: No. 4 - TheLong Good Buy; the Case for Equities, March 21, 2012) the European market looks attractiverelative t
8、o its own history on a PE adjusted for the cyclical variations in earnings. One of thesemeasures is computed by dividing the current price by the 10-year average EPS (both of them inreal terms); it is often called the Graham-Dodd or Shiller PE (see Irrational Exuberance, Robert JShiller Princeton Un
9、iversity Press 2000). On this measure of valuation the European market istrading 34% below the long-run average (Exhibit 1). The US market Shiller PE, by contrast, is at21.5x compared with an average over the same time horizon (since 1983) of 22.8x.Exhibit 1: The European market cyclically adjusted
10、PE is significantly below the long-runaverage4035Shiller PEAverage302520151051983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.In our view, valuation is the most important factor for predicting future long-term returns (se
11、eGlobal Economics Paper 182 Finding Fair Value in Global Equities: Part IIForecasting Returns,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究-1532012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲March 23, 2009). Exhibit 2 shows the PE based on 10-year average earnings for the Europeanmarket and the five-year forward total return (in real terms) from an investment
12、made at that time.A high Shiller PE has generally led to negative real returns, while a low valuation has beenrelated to high real returns.Exhibit 2: Low valuation has historically been related to a high forward real returnShiller PE and annualized real total return for the European market30255-year
13、 annualisedreal return20151050-5-10PE based on 10-year average earnings510152025303540Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.However, as uncertainties surrounding future growth are high, we often find in our conversationswith investors that many doubt the reliability of the signal cur
14、rently provided by the Shiller PE.The PE computed on trend earnings yields the same valuation signalThe underlying argument for taking the 10-year average EPS is that the cyclical variation inearnings is removed and thus the current price is being compared to the underlying earningspotential. Of cou
15、rse this method is not without drawbacks. First, since EPS tends to trend higherover time, the average of each cycle is above the average of the previous one. Therefore, bycomparing the current price to the trailing average EPS, one might overstate the PE onnormalized earnings by only correcting for
16、 cyclical variations and not taking into account long-term trend growth. Exhibit 3 highlights this point: it shows the evolution of the European marketreal earnings over time and successive 10-year averages. Each 10-year average is above theprevious one.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究42012 年 11 月 3 日Exhibit 3: Evolu
17、tion of Europe real EPS and 10-year averages欧洲900Log-scaleReal EPS (indexed 100)Averages44% above54% above37% above901973197719811985198919931997200120052009Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As a result, it could be argued that the normalized real EPS derived from averaging thepa
18、st 10 years is too low, given that it fails to take into account normal trend growth.However, when looking for over/under valuation signals, we tend to look at the current Shiller PErelative to the average rather than the absolute level of the Shiller PE. Therefore, as long as thetrend growth is unc
19、hanged, the valuation signal given by the Shiller PE is valid. One way to showthis is to compare the Shiller PE with an alternative measure of cyclically adjusted PE. We usethe PE based on trend earnings. Although the level of these two alternative measures isvery different (the average Shiller PE i
20、s 18.2x while the average PE on trend earnings is15.2x), the valuation signal is comparable. Exhibit 4 compares the premium/discount totheir respective averages of the Shiller PE and the PE on trend earnings.Exhibit 4: Shiller PE and PE on trend earnings point to the same valuation signal120%100%80%
21、60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%Shiller PE Premium / Discount vs. AverageTrend PE Premium / Discount vs. Average-80%1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究1.2.3.52012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲Future growth probably lowe
22、r but not enough to explain thediscountOne of the main problems in interpreting the valuation signal from the Shiller PE is theassessment of future growth. Even though the current multiple might be cheap relative to thehistorical average, many investors are sceptical that the rate of growth in futur
23、e years will becomparable to that achieved over the last 30 years and therefore believe that the discount of thecurrent multiple to the average is more a reflection of lower future growth than of cheap equities.We find the average real earnings growth achieved by European companies since 1970shas be
24、en 3.9% pa, with a large part of that derived from higher margins.We have discussed in previous research the factors underpinning the rise in margins: (1) shifts inthe industry mix of the market towards higher-margin sectors; and (2) shifts in labour costs ascompanies have outsourced, restructured f
25、ormerly nationalized industries, sought more flexiblelabour contracts and moved operations to lower-cost locations (see The margin debate: cyclicalrisks vs. structural gains, April 18, 2011). Although it seems hard to envisage that the expansionin margins will continue, we are also sceptical that th
26、ese gains will be reversed and margins willreturn to the long-run average, given that structural change has raised European companiesmargins to the same level as those for US companies.To look at potential earnings growth, we use our economists projection of long-term real GDPgrowth (see Global Econ
27、omics Paper: 208 The BRICs 10 Years On: Halfway Through TheGreat Transformation, December 7, 2011) in various regions to project long-term sales growth.We then test different scenarios for margins.No change in margins beyond our explicit forecast horizon of 2013 (net income margin of7.3%). We find t
28、his would result in 2.7% average real earnings growth between now and2050 compared with the 3.9% achieved historically.Margins decline to their previous peak in 2000 (net income margin of 5.5%). Average realearnings growth in this scenario would be 2%.Margins decline to their average level since 198
29、1 (net income margin of 3.5%). Average realearnings growth in this scenario would be 0.8%.We find that our base projection for top-line growth would need to expand by 11 bp per year from2013 to 2050 in order for real earnings growth to reach the historical rate of 3.9%. On thattrajectory, margins wo
30、uld be close to 11.6% by 2050 almost 60% higher than their 2011 level.Exhibit 5 details the impact of the different scenarios on real earnings growth.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究54662012 年 11 月 3 日Exhibit 5: European real earnings growthYear-over-year European real earnings growth projected under different scenar
31、iosEarnings YoY Real Growth (constant margin and FX)Earnings YoY Real Growth (margin declining to 5.5%, constant FX)Earnings YoY Real Growth (margin declining to 3.5%, constant FX)Historical Average3210-1欧洲2014E2018E2022E2026E2030E2034E2038E2042E2046E2050ESource: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Wh
32、ile, even with constant margins, we would not expect earnings to grow at the rate achieved inthe last 30 years (2.7% vs. 3.9%), we find that market implied growth for the next 40 years issubstantially lower than our most negative scenario. Exhibit 6 shows the 40-year market impliedgrowth over time a
33、ssuming a constant ERP of 3.5% and a conservative terminal real growth rateof 1%. Currently it points to an annualized real decline in earnings of 2.5%.Exhibit 6: Evolution of European earnings implied growth840-year implied growth420-2-4Jan-90Jan-93Jan-96Jan-99Jan-02Jan-05Jan-08Jan-11Source: Datast
34、ream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究72012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲Still solid real return for equity holders on conservative growth assumptionsAs discussed above, although there are reasons to expect earnings growth to be lower than it hasbeen in the past 30 years, the level of real growth cur
35、rently implied by the market seems too loweven compared to our most negative scenario. Yet, one question remains: if growth is lower,what is the fair multiple value towards which the market should converge? One way toanswer this question is to use the justified PE. The justified PE uses a one-stage
36、DDM toderive the theoretical PE of the market given expected growth, payout ratio and the cost of equity.This PE is not comparable in level terms to the Shiller PE but we can make the comparison with anormal 12-month forward PE.Exhibit 7 shows the discount compared to the justified PE under differen
37、t assumptions for realearnings growth and with a 44% payout ratio and 6.2% real cost of equity (in both cases, themarket average since 1989). We find that the current 12-month forward PE (for whichearnings are still below normalized level) would be at fair value with 2.2% annualized realearnings gro
38、wth.Exhibit 7: Even conservative growth assumptions would leave equity holders earning a 6.2% real cost of equityJustified PE under different earnings growth scenarioGrowthScenarioHistoricalrealearningsgrowthrateConstantmarginsandGDPgrowthprojectionsfortoplineMarginsdeclineto5.5%andGDPgrowthprojecti
39、onsfortoplineGrowthrequiredforPEtobefairgivenrealcostfoequityMarginsdeclineto3.5%andGDPgrowthprojectionsfortoplinePayoutratio(%)4444444444RealCostofEquity(%)6.26.26.26.26.2RealGrowth(%)3.92.72.22.00.8JustifiedPE*18.712.411.010.38.0Current12monthforwardPE11.011.011.011.011.0Premium/Discount(%)41.011.
40、50.06.837.0*JustifiedPEisderivedfromaonestageDDM.Justifiedpe=payoutratio/(CostofequityGrowth)Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.The reassuring conclusion we came to is that, even on a conservative assumption of 2.2%real earnings growth (which would make the current multiple fair relative to a
41、 one-stageDDM derived PE), an equity investor would expect to earn the cost of equity (6.2% in realterms).高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究35252082012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲Low Shiller PE: not just driven by a few sectors or countriesAnother argument we hear when discussing the attractive valuation of the European market isthat
42、 the current valuation is driven by a few sectors facing structural difficulties and that, excludingthem, the market is actually on a much higher multiple. The sectors most often cited areFinancials, Telecoms and Utilities, which account for almost 30% of the STOXX Europe 600weight. However, we find
43、 that, even excluding these three sectors, the market remains on anattractive cyclically adjusted PE. Exhibit 8 shows the Shiller PE for the European marketexcluding Financials, Utilities and Telecoms.Exhibit 8: Market remains attractive even excluding Financials, Utilities and Telecoms40Shiller PE
44、ex Fin, Utilities andTelecomsShiller PE30AverageAverage ex Fin, Utilities andTelecoms1510583 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Although excluding these sectors raises the overall valuation for the
45、remainder of the market (theShiller PE moves from 12.1x to 15.5x), as they are generally on lower multiples than the broadermarket, the market excluding these sectors is still on a 15% discount relative to its own history(including these sectors, the European market is on a 34% discount to the avera
46、ge since 1983).In addition, there are some difficulties in pointing to sectors as facing structural issues. At the endof the 1990s few investors would have considered Telecoms to be facing structural issues(although stretched valuation would prove a structural issue for the sector investment returns
47、),while Basic Resources which in the next decade would benefit from the rapid development ofBRICs countries was one of the few sectors trading at a discount to its average Shiller PE.Another way to assess how broad-based inexpensive valuation is across the market is to look atindividual sector multi
48、ples rather than the aggregate multiple. Exhibit 9 shows over time theproportion of sectors for which the Shiller PE is below the average Shiller PE. We find that 16 ofthe 19 ICB super sectors (84%) are currently trading below their long-run average cyclicallyadjusted PE. This proportion is large co
49、mpared to the longer history (the long-run average isaround 50%).高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究10092012 年 11 月 3 日Exhibit 9: 84% of European sectors are trading below their average Shiller PEProportion of sector with Shiller PE average Shiller PE9080706050403020100欧洲Jan-90Jan-93Jan-96Jan-99Jan-02Jan-05Jan-08Jan-11S
50、ource: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Exhibit 10 provides the detail for each of the 19 super sectors. As discussed above, only threesectors are trading above their average Shiller PE: Chemicals, Food & Beverages, and PersonalHousehold Goods.Exhibit 10: Only three sectors trade above
51、their average Shiller PESectorChemicalsFood&BevPersonalandHHGoodsIndustrialGds&SvsAutos&PartsHealthcareMarketexFinancialsUtiltiesandTelecomsRetailBasicResourcesTravel&LeisureMarketOil&GasConstruction&MaterialsTechnologyMediaFinancialsSvsUtilitiesTelecomsRealEstateBanksInsuranceCurrentShillerPE21.424
52、.222.417.310.619.115.517.011.412.812.110.39.316.913.613.19.510.211.95.28.3AverageShillerPE15.719.619.618.511.522.318.321.916.018.418.216.615.828.824.024.618.220.925.713.331.3Premium/Discount(%)36.223.214.26.67.514.515.022.128.930.633.637.741.041.443.346.747.551.353.560.773.5Source: Datastream, Goldm
53、an Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究102012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲The core and non Euro area segments of the market are also cheaprelative to historySimilarly, some investors argue that the low valuation is being driven by periphery countriesrather than core or non Euro area countries. In the periphery,
54、 a collapse in earnings relative to thetrend of the 1990s could explain the low Shiller PE and drive down the overall cyclically adjustedvaluation of the European market.To look at this we construct an aggregated Shiller PE for the core, periphery and non Euro areasegments of the market. Exhibit 11
55、shows over time the premium/discount of the cyclicallyadjusted PE relative to the long-run average for each of these segments. It is true that theperiphery is trading at a bigger discount than the core or non Euro area (something that isnot always captured by normal PEs as current consensus 12-month
56、 forward earnings arebelow the normalized level for periphery countries). However, we find that the core andeven the non Euro area segments of the market are also on a discount to their long-runaverage cyclically adjusted valuation.Exhibit 11: Core and non Euro area are also on a discount to their a
57、verage cyclicallyadjusted PEPremium/Discount of Shiller PE relative to long-run average (%)150CorePeripheryNon-Euro100500-26%-36%-50-100-47%1983198619891992199519982001200420072010Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.The evolution of the periphery cyclically adjusted valuation is in
58、teresting: it decoupled from therest of Europe just after the end of the post dot-com bubble correction which coincided with theintroduction of the euro. The periphery then benefited from easy financing conditions and, at thepeak of the last cycle, was at a much higher premium than the other parts o
59、f Europe. Since then alarge part of the periphery underperformance has come from a re-convergence of its cyclicallyadjusted valuation with the rest of Europe.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究112012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲信息披露附录分析师申明我们，Matthieu Walterspiler、 彼得欧品海默、 Sharon Bell, CFA、 Gerald Moser、 Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA
60、、 Anders Nielsen，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们对上述公司或其证券的个人看法。此外，我们的薪金的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。高盛信息披露评级分布/投资银行关系高盛投资研究部的全球研究覆盖范围评级分布投资银行关系买入持有卖出买入持有卖出全球31%55%14%49%42%35%截至 2012 年 10 月 1 日，高盛全球投资研究部对 3,442 种股票评定了投资评级。高盛给予股票在各种地区投资名单中的买入和卖出评级；未给予这些评级的股票被视为中性评级，根据纳斯达克纽约证券交易所的披露要求，这些评级分别对应买入，持有及
61、卖出。详情见以下“公司评级，研究行业及评级和相关定义”部分。美国法定披露任何本报告中研究企业所需的特定公司法定披露见上文：包括即将进行交易的承销商或副承销商，1%或其他股权，特定服务的补偿，客户关系种类，之前担任承销商或副承销商的公开发行，担任董事，担任股票做市及或专家的角色。高盛通常担任本报告中涉及的固定收益证券的做市商，并常作为这些证券的交易对手。以下为额外要求的披露： 股权及重大利益冲突: 高盛的政策为禁止其分析师、分析师属下专业人员及其家庭成员持有分析师负责研究的任何公司的证券。 分析师薪酬: 分析师薪酬部分取决于高盛的盈利，其中包括投资银行的收入。 分析师担任高级职员或董事: 高盛的
62、政策为禁止其分析师、分析师属下人员及其家庭成员担任分析师负责研究的任何公司的高级职员、董事、顾问委员会成员或雇员。 非美国分析师: 非美国分析师可能与高盛无关联，因此可以不受纳斯达克 2711 条/纽约证券交易所 472 条对于与所研究公司的交流、公开露面及持有交易证券的限制。美国以外司法管辖区规定的额外披露以下为除了根据美国法律法规规定作出的上述信息披露之外其他司法管辖区法律所要求的披露。 澳大利亚: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd 及其相关机构不是澳大利亚经授权的存款机构（1959 年银行法所定义），因此不在澳大利亚境内提供银行服务，也不经营银行业务。本研究
63、报告或本报告的其他形式内容只可分发予根据澳大利亚公司法定义的批发客户，在事先获得高盛许可的情况下可以有例外。 巴西: 与 CVM Instruction 483 相关的信息披露请参阅http:/ CVM Instruction 483 第 16 条，在适用的情况下，对本研究报告内容负主要责任的巴西注册分析师为本报告开头部分标明的第一作者，除非报告末另有说明。 加拿大: 如果本报告与加拿大股票发行人有关，高盛集团已批准本报告，并同意承担有关责任。分析师可进行实地考察，但不可收受公司对此等差旅支付的任何款项或偿付。 香港: 可从高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司获取有关本报告中所研究公司的证券的额外资料。
64、印度: 有关本研究报告中的研究对象或所提及的公司的进一步信息可能来自高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司。 日本: 见下文。 韩国: 可从高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司获取有关本报告所研究公司的证券的额外资料。 新西兰: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited 及其关联机构并非 1989 年新西兰储备银行法定义的“注册银行”或“存款机构”。本研究报告以及本报告的其他形式内容只可分发给 2008 年财务顾问法案定义的 批发客户，在事先获得高盛许可的情况下可以有例外。 俄罗斯: 在俄罗斯联邦分发的研究报告并非俄罗斯法律所定义的广告，而是不以产品推广为主要目的的信息和分析，也
65、不属于俄罗斯法律所界定的评估行为。 新加坡: 可从高盛（新加坡）私人公司（公司编号：198602165W）获取有关本报告中所研究公司的证券的额外资料。 台湾: 本信息仅供参考，未经允许不得翻印。投资者应当谨慎考虑他们自身的投资风险，投资结果由投资者自行负责。 英国: 在英国根据金融服务局的定义可被分类为私人客户的人士参阅本报告的同时应当参阅高盛以往对本报告研究企业的研究报告，并应当参考高盛国际已经发给这些客户的风险警告资料。该风险警告资料复本，以及本报告中采用部分金融辞汇的解释可向高盛国际索取。欧盟: 与欧盟指令 2003/126/EC 第四章(1)(d)和第六章(2)有关的披露信息可参见 h
66、ttp:/ 高盛证券株式会社是依据金融工具与交易法、在关东财务局注册（注册号：No. 69）的金融工具交易商，同时也是日本证券业协会和日本金融期货业协会的成员。股票买卖需要缴纳与客户事先约定的佣金及消费税。关于日本证券交易所、日本证券交易商协会或日本证券金融公司所要求的适用的信息披露，请参见与公司有关的法定披露部分。公司评级、研究行业及评级和相关定义买入、中性、卖出：分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单。一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决定。任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评级。每个地区投资评估委员会根据 25-35%的股票评级为买入、1
67、0-15%的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来管理该地区的投资名单；但是，在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同。地区强力买入或卖出名单是以潜在回报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议。高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究122012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲潜在回报：代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差。分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格。潜在回报、目标价格及相关时间范围在每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中都有注明。研究行业及评级：每个行业研究的所有股票名单可登陆 http:/ 通过主要分析师、股票和行业进行查询。分析师给出下
68、列评级中的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法。 具吸引力(A)：未来 12 个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及或估值。 中性(N)：未来 12 个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及或估值持平。 谨慎(C)：未来 12 个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及或估值。暂无评级(NR)：在高盛于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下，投资评级和目标价格已经根据高盛的政策予以除去。暂停评级(RS)：由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标，或在发表报告方面存在法律、监管或政策的限制，我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价格目
69、标。此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标(如有的话)将不再有效，因此投资者不应依赖该等资料。 暂停研究(CS)：我们已经暂停对该公司的研究。没有研究(NC)：我们没有对该公司进行研究。 不存在或不适用(NA)：此资料不存在或不适用。 无意义(NM)：此资料无意义，因此不包括在报告内。全球产品；分发机构高盛全球投资研究部在全球范围内为高盛的客户制作并分发研究产品。高盛分布在其全球各办事处的分析师提供行业和公司的股票研究，以及宏观经济、货币、商品及投资组合策略的研究。本研究报告在澳大利亚由 Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd（ABN 21 006 797 897）分发
70、；在巴西由 Goldman Sachs doBrasil Corretora de Ttulos e Valores Mobilirios S.A.分发；股票及其他研究在加拿大由高盛集团分发；在香港由高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司分发；在印度由高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司分发；在日本由高盛证券株式会社分发；在韩国由高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司分发；在新西兰由 Goldman Sachs NewZealand Limited 分发；在俄罗斯由高盛 OOO 分发；在新加坡由高盛（新加坡）私人公司（公司号：198602165W）分发；在美国由高盛集团分发。高盛国际已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发。欧
71、盟：高盛国际（由英国金融服务局监管）已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发；Goldman Sachs AG（由联邦金融监管局监管）可能也会在德国分发。一般性披露本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。除了与高盛相关的披露，本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息，但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性，客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的。我们会适时地更新我们的研究，但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外，绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版。高盛是一家集投资银行、投资管理和证券经纪业务于一身的全球性综合服务公司。高盛全球投资研究部所研究的大部分公司与我们保持着投资银行
72、业务和其它业务关系。美国证券经纪交易商高盛是 SIPC 的成员(http:/www.sipc.org)。我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。我们的资产管理部门、自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高盛销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论，或在本报告中讨论交易策略，其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件，该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于
73、该股的基本评级，此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。我们以及我们的关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员，不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师，将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸，担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手，或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的司法管辖区内，本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见，包括税务意见。本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投
74、资带来的收入可能会波动。过去的表现并不代表未来的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。某些交易，包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易，有很大的风险，因此并不适合所有投资者。投资者可以向高盛销售代表取得或通过http:/ 取得当前的期权披露文件。对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品，例如，期权差价结构产品，其交易成本可能较高。与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。在撰写研究报告期间，Goldman Sachs Australia 全球投资研究部的职员可能参与本研究报告中所讨论证券的发行人组织的现场调研或会议。在某
75、些情况下，如果视具体情形 Goldman Sachs Australia 认为恰当或合理，此类调研或会议的成本可能部分或全部由该证券发行人承担。所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在我们的内部客户网上并向所有客户同步提供。并非所有研究内容都转发给我们的客户或者向第三方整合者提供，高盛也并不对由第三方整合者转发的我们研究报告承担任何责任。有关个股的所有研究报告，请联络您的销售代表或登陆 http:/。披露信息可以查阅 http:/ 或向研究合规部索取，地址是 200 West Street，New York，NY 10282。高盛版权所有 2012 年未经高盛集团公司事先书面同意，本材料的任何部
76、分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或(ii)再次分发。高华证券信息披露一般披露本报告在中国由高华证券分发。高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格。本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息，但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性，客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的。我们会适时地更新我们的研究，但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外，绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版。高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构，从事投资银行业务。高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系
77、。高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究132012 年 11 月 3 日欧洲我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。我们的自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论，或在本报告中讨论交易策略，其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件，该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评级，此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报
78、告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员，不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师，将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸，担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手，或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区，本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见，包括税务意见。本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。过去的表现并不代表未来的表现，未
79、来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。某些交易，包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易，有很大的风险，因此并不适合所有投资者。投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过http:/ 取得当前的期权披露文件。对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品，例如，期权差价结构产品，其交易成本可能较高。与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 2012 年未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意，本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或(ii)再次分发。高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究
