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1、 Food Security Issues in China: Challenges and Strategies Food Security Issues in China: Challenges and StrategiesDr. Ke BingshengDr. Ke BingshengChina Agricultural UniversityChina Agricultural University1 1;. ;.OutlineOutlinePast development and current situationPast development and current situati
2、on Production growth 1978-2009Production growth 1978-2009 Trade Trade Major challengesMajor challenges Rising demandRising demand Slow-down of production growth Slow-down of production growth Policy practice and future perspectives Policy practice and future perspectives 30 years reform and current
3、policy 30 years reform and current policy Options for improvementsOptions for improvements2 2Past development and current situationPast development and current situation3 3;. ;.Declined agricultural sharesDeclined agricultural shares1980198020092009GDPGDP%30301111Population Population %818153/6853/6
4、8EmploymentEmployment%69694141ExportExport%20203 3ImportImport%15154 4Food expenditure, urbanFood expenditure, urban%57573737Food expenditure, ruralFood expenditure, rural%626241414 4Development 1978-2009Development 1978-2009Grain production growth: 73%, or 1.8% on average per year Grain production
5、growth: 73%, or 1.8% on average per year Meat production: increased by over 7 timesMeat production: increased by over 7 timesFishery production: increased by over 8 timesFishery production: increased by over 8 timesFarmers income: 7% annually in real term. Farmers income: 7% annually in real term. 5
6、 5Grain production in ChinaGrain production in China1978-2009, in million tons1978-2009, in million tons6 6Wheat production in China, Wheat production in China, in million tons in million tons7 7Paddy rice production in ChinaPaddy rice production in Chinain million tonsin million tons8 8Corn product
7、ion in ChinaCorn production in Chinain million tonsin million tons9 9Meat and milk production in ChinaMeat and milk production in Chinain million tonsin million tons1010Agricultural and Food Trade Agricultural and Food Trade in 2009in 2009Net importerNet importerHigh dependence: import of soybean: 4
8、2.55 million tons, implying 15% of total High dependence: import of soybean: 42.55 million tons, implying 15% of total cropping areas would be needed if produced domestically in 2009. Of 75% of cropping areas would be needed if produced domestically in 2009. Of 75% of soybean demand is imported.soyb
9、ean demand is imported.Import of edible oils: 10.29 million tonsImport of edible oils: 10.29 million tons1111Import in the first eight months in 2010Import in the first eight months in 2010Deficit of agri-and food tradeDeficit of agri-and food trade：US$ 15.2 billion US$ 15.2 billion Soybean import:
10、35.53 million tons. Soybean import: 35.53 million tons. Cotton: 2.17 million tonsCotton: 2.17 million tonsEdible oils: 5.77 million tonsEdible oils: 5.77 million tons1212Agricultural and food trade in ChinaAgricultural and food trade in Chinaincluding fishery, in billion US$including fishery, in bil
11、lion US$1313Agricultural and food import in ChinaAgricultural and food import in China%1414Agricultural and food export in ChinaAgricultural and food export in China%1515Cereals Trade in ChinaCereals Trade in Chinain million tonsin million tons1616Soybean Trade in ChinaSoybean Trade in Chinain milli
12、on tonsin million tons1717Cotton Trade in China Cotton Trade in China in million tonsin million tons1818Edible oil trade in ChinaEdible oil trade in Chinain million tonsin million tons1919Major challengesMajor challenges2020;. ;.Challenges for balancing demand and supply (1)Challenges for balancing
13、demand and supply (1)Continued demand: 90 million tons for 2005-2020, or 6 million tons per year: Continued demand: 90 million tons for 2005-2020, or 6 million tons per year: population growth: 47 million tpopulation growth: 47 million turbanization (increased urban share in population): 10 million
14、turbanization (increased urban share in population): 10 million tincome improvement: 10 million tincome improvement: 10 million tgrowth of other sectors (without biofuel): 23 million t growth of other sectors (without biofuel): 23 million t 2121Challenges for balancing demand and supply (2)Challenge
15、s for balancing demand and supply (2)Constraints in productionConstraints in productionReduction of arable land due to urbanizationReduction of arable land due to urbanizationDegradation of land quality Degradation of land quality Shortage of irrigation waterShortage of irrigation waterRising produc
16、tion costs for labor and material inputs: falling cropping indexRising production costs for labor and material inputs: falling cropping indexSlow-down in yield improvementsSlow-down in yield improvements2222Grain areas in ChinaGrain areas in China100 million Mu 100 million Mu 2323Cropping areas by c
17、ropCropping areas by crop，亿亩，亿亩，亿亩，亿亩2424Grain yield in China, kg/muGrain yield in China, kg/mu2525Grain yield in China, kg/muGrain yield in China, kg/mu2626Grain yield increases, %Grain yield increases, %GrainsPaddyCornWheat1988-19981988-199824 24 18 18 28 28 27 27 1998-20081998-20088 8 2 2 8 8 21
18、21 1988-20081988-200834 34 20 20 39 39 54 54 2727Grain Yields by Province, 2008Grain Yields by Province, 20082828World Export, 100 million tonsWorld Export, 100 million tons2929Policy practice and future perspectivesPolicy practice and future perspectives 3030;. ;.30 Years Reform 30 Years Reform 197
19、8-2002: introduction of market system1978-2002: introduction of market system Collective production units replaced by individual farmersCollective production units replaced by individual farmers Government purchasing and distribution replaced by market mechanismGovernment purchasing and distribution
20、 replaced by market mechanism Free migration of labor forces between rural-urbanFree migration of labor forces between rural-urban2002-present: support policy addressing market failures2002-present: support policy addressing market failures Abolishment of agricultural tax, ending a history of 2600 y
21、earsAbolishment of agricultural tax, ending a history of 2600 years Direct subsidy to farmers: quality seed, grain farmers, input subsidyDirect subsidy to farmers: quality seed, grain farmers, input subsidy Support price for paddy rice, wheat, cornSupport price for paddy rice, wheat, corn Increased
22、inputs in agricultural service, rural infrastructure, education, health Increased inputs in agricultural service, rural infrastructure, education, health care and social security care and social security 3131Policies to promote production incentivePolicies to promote production incentiveGrain area s
23、ubsidyGrain area subsidySubsidy to mitigate effects from price hike of farm inputsSubsidy to mitigate effects from price hike of farm inputsGrain seed subsidyGrain seed subsidySubsidy for purchase of farm machinesSubsidy for purchase of farm machinesSubsidy to sowsSubsidy to sows3232Budget outlay fo
24、r supporting agriculture and its shareBudget outlay for supporting agriculture and its shareBudget outlay for supporting agriculture and its shareBudget outlay for supporting agriculture and its share3333Policy to promote productivityPolicy to promote productivityStricter control on taking farmland
25、for non-farm purposesStricter control on taking farmland for non-farm purposesIncreased public funding in:Increased public funding in: irrigation and other infrastructure irrigation and other infrastructure extensionextension researchresearch Other public service: information, food safety, dieses co
26、ntrolOther public service: information, food safety, dieses control3434Policy to reduce demandPolicy to reduce demandEstablishment of new biofuel plants using grains as feedstock is in fact prohibited Establishment of new biofuel plants using grains as feedstock is in fact prohibited since 2007.sinc
27、e 2007.3535Trade policyTrade policyIn practice: Much more freer than WTO commitments:In practice: Much more freer than WTO commitments: Soybean import tax: 1% from 3%(WTO)Soybean import tax: 1% from 3%(WTO) Cotton: ca. 5% from 40% (WTO)Cotton: ca. 5% from 40% (WTO)Similar can happen to other key pro
28、ducts when in shortageSimilar can happen to other key products when in shortage3636Future perspectivesFuture perspectivesImport of land-intensive commodities (low yield products: oilseeds, cotton, wheat) will Import of land-intensive commodities (low yield products: oilseeds, cotton, wheat) will fur
29、ther expand;further expand;There will be no food crisis for China for the short and mid-term. There will be no food crisis for China for the short and mid-term. Long term food security depends on protection and improvement of farmland and Long term food security depends on protection and improvement
30、 of farmland and yield improvement (for both crop and livestock). yield improvement (for both crop and livestock). Technological innovation and application in both traditional and biotechnology areas Technological innovation and application in both traditional and biotechnology areas will be the key. We have a crucial role in this! will be the key. We have a crucial role in this! 3737Thank you！3838
