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1、1Understanding Foreign Exchange2PaymentsAmongNations3TheForeignExchangeMarket4ForwardExchangeandInternationalFinancialInvestment5WhatDeterminesExchangeRates?6GovernmentPoliciesTowardtheForeignExchangeMarket7InternationalLendingandFinancialCrisesPart OneCHAPTER TWOPayments among Nations国际收支国际收支3Frame
2、workofchapter2Accountingprinciples记账原则Acountriesbalanceofpayments一国的国际收支Themacromeaningofthecurrentaccountbalance经常账户余额的宏观意义Themacromeaningoftheoverallbalance总余额的宏观意义4BalanceofPayments国际收支Balanceofpaymentsarethesetofaccountsrecordingallflowsofvaluebetweenanationsresidentsandtheresidentsoftherestofth
3、eworldduringaperiodoftime.p13国际收支：国际收支是指一国的居民在一定时期内（一年、一季度、一月）与他国居民之间的经济交易的系统记录。BalanceofPaymentsStatement:国际收支平衡表Figure2.15Accounting principlesA credit item (+): a country must be paid; payment by a foreigner into the country.A debit item (-): a country must pay; payment by the country to a foreig
4、ner.Exports of goodsPurchases by foreigners in this countryForeigners investing in the countrys bondsImports of goodsPurchases by firms in this country from foreign countriesPurchases by investors in this country from foreigners6AcountrysbalanceofpaymentsThree major parts of a countrys balance of pa
5、yments:Current account（经常账户）（经常账户）Financial account（金融账户）（金融账户）Official international reserves（官方国际储备）（官方国际储备）7CurrentaccountThecurrent accountincludesalldebitandcredititemsthatareexportsandimportsofgoodsandservices,incomereceiptsandincomepayments,andgifts.8Current accountgoods and serviceincomeunil
6、ateral transfer单方面转移单方面转移Payments and receipts on foreign financial assets, like interest, dividends(股息) and other claims(债权).Gifts makes and receives Figure 2.1Goods and service imports and exports9Thenetvalueofflowsofgoods,services,income,andunilateraltransfersisthecurrentaccountbalance.Currentacc
7、ountbalance(CA)经常账户差额商品贸易差额、劳务差额加上收入净额和无偿转移收支净额之和。Positive balance: Surplus (盈余)Negative balance: Deficit (赤字)10Contd盈余（）：一国在与外国交易中增加了资产或减少了负债。 赤字（）：一国在与外国交易中减少了资产或增加了负债。11Financial account金融账户Thenetvalueofflowsoffinancialassetsandsimilarclaims(excludingofficialinternationalreserveassetflows)isthepr
8、ivatefinancialaccountbalance.P1612ContdVarietiesofprivatecapitalflowsDirect investment 直接投资直接投资lending to, or purchases of ownership inInternational portfolio investment国际证券投资国际证券投资purchases of bonds and stocksFinancial account Financial account balanceFigure 2.1 p1513ContdPlease note:thevaluereport
9、edinthecapitalaccountarefortheprincipal amounts（本金）onlyofassetstradedanyflowsofearnings onforeignassetsarereportedinthecurrentaccount.14Officialinternationalreserves官方国际储备Officialinternationalreservesassetsaremoney-likeassetsthatareheldbygovernmentsandthatarerecognizedbygovernmentsasfullyacceptablef
10、orpaymentsbetweenthem.Gold Foreign exchange assets, e.g. U.S. Treasury bonds) Special drawing rights (SDRs) in IMFFigure 2.1 p1515Add the three major parts of a countrys balance of payments togetherAccording to double-entry bookkeeping, positive items + negative items = 016StatisticalDiscrepancy统计误差
11、Itisaitemcreatedtomaketheaccountsbalanceandtowarnusthatsomethingwasmissed.Figure2.1noteap1517THEMACROMEANINGOFTHECURRENTACCOUNTBALANCETheCAhasseveralmeanings.Financial account + Official international reserveNetflowsofinternationalfinancialinvestmentNetforeigninvestment(If)净国外投资CA=If1.Currentaccount
12、balance182.Nationalsaving(S)versusdomesticinvestment(Id).S=Id+If,sothatCA=SId国内投资国内投资19Contd3.Domesticproduction(Y)versusnationalexpenditure(E).Y=C+Id+G+(XM),商品和劳务的生产=消费+投资政府支出贸易差额E=C+Id+G,对商品和劳务总支出=消费+投资政府支出20收入的四部门模型。四部门包括家庭、企业、政府和国外部门。居民户居民户企业企业商品或劳务商品或劳务货币（消费货币（消费C）提供生产要素提供生产要素货币（工资或利息）货币（工资或利息）
13、金融机构金融机构储蓄储蓄S投资投资I 政府政府税税收收T支支出出G国外部门国外部门国国外外企企业业购购买买（出出口口）向国外企业购买（进口）向国外企业购买（进口）21ContdTherefore,Y=E+(XM),andCA=(XM)approximately,-thedifferencebetweenthevalueofthecountrysexportsofgoodsandservicesandthevalueofitsimportsofgoodsandservices.sothat CA=YE22Meaningofcurrentaccountbalancep20surplusdefici
14、tPositivenetforeigninvestment(lender)贷款者Netforeignborrower借款者Savingmorethaninvestingdomestically储蓄超过国内投资Domesticsavingslessthandomesticinvestment储蓄低于国内投资Producingmorethanspendingongoodsandservices生产超过支出Spendingmorethanproducing生产少于支出Note: we are not saying which one is good or bad23Theseidentitieshe
15、lpusseewhatmustbechangedifthecurrentaccountbalanceistobechanged.Theidentitiesalsohelpustounderstandwhatforcesmightbecausingchangesinthecurrentaccountbalance.Figure2.224If CA is in deficit, then what could we do?IncreaseY,ordecreaseE.25THEMACROMEANINGOFTHEOVERALLBALANCEp23Officialsettlementsbalance(官
16、方结算差额)Currentaccountbalance+ PrivatecapitalbalanceB = CA + KA p15figure2.1noteb因为所有项目最终差额必须为0，所以官方结算差额的不平衡必须用官方储备资产（OR）来弥补，因此，B + OR = 0意义：如B0，则外汇贮备增加。如B0，则外汇贮备减少。26Chinas economy： Not made in ChinaFeb 11th 2009, From EChinas exports dive but its trade surplus growsIMPORTStoChinaplungedinJanuary,sig
17、nallingthatdemandisshrinkingalarmingly:theyfellby43.1%comparedwithayearearlier,worsethanforecastanddoublethedeclineinDecember.ButChinastradesurplus,at$39.1billion,isoneofthebiggestonrecordbecauseahugetumbleinexportsof17.5wasdwarfedbyfallingimports.ArecoveryinChineseexportsisunlikelyastheworldslidesd
18、eeperintoaneconomicslumpbutimportsmaywellpickupChinahasresumedimportingironoreafterrunningdownstocksinrecentmonths.Chinaseconomycouldalsogetaboostfromabiggovernmentstimuluspackage.27AFPReaders comments28Theinternationalinvestmentposition国际投资头寸又称国际借贷。是指一定时点上（一般为年末）一国居民的全部对外资产和对外负债的余额。29Figure2.4U.S.I
19、nternationalInvestmentPosition30Eachtransactionhastwoitem,onepositiveandonenegative,ofequalvalue.double-entry bookkeeping复式记账法复式记账法positive items + negative items = 0positive balance: surplusnegative balance: deficit31CurrentaccountCurrent account balancetrade balanceCurrent accountgoods and service
20、incomeGifts (unilateral transfer单单方面转移方面转移)32ExamplesU.S.governmentgives$8millioninforeignaidtothegovernmentofEgyptintheformofwheatfromU.S.government.Credit (+) ($ million)Debit (-) ($ million)Merchandiseexport(wheat)UnilateraltransfertoEgypt$8$833Unilateral transfersGovernment grantsPrivate transferMigrants remittances of money and goods backCharitable giving
