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1、AgAu Global Producer FundJanuary 2009Strictly Private and Confidential贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件The information contained in this document is provided to you by Agau Capital Pty Limited (“AgAu”). This document and the matters discussed with you pursuant to this document are confidential information of AgAu
2、 (“Confidential Information”). By receiving this Confidential Information, you are deemed to have agreed (i) that you will treat the information confidentially; (ii) not to disclose any Confidential Information to any person; and (iii) not to reproduce or distribute this document in whole or in part
3、, without AgAus prior written consent.This document does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer in respect of any securities or assets described in this document. The information in this document is merely a proposal and is provided solely for discussion purposes. The proposal discuss
4、ed in this document and the information provided is subject to change without notice. The information may contain statements which are either missing information or which assume outcomes expected in the future. Accordingly, this document does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all the inf
5、ormation that may be required in relation to such discussions or for an evaluation of the proposal. This document shall not form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice, and does not take into consideration the investment obje
6、ctives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor.Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information given in this document is accurate, it has not been independently verified. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made in
7、 relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions expressed in this document and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any and all liability in respect of such information and opinions is hereby expressly excluded, including, without limitation, any liability arising from
8、fault or negligence, for any loss arising from the use of this information or otherwise arising in connection with it. No responsibility is accepted by AgAu, or any of its related corporations, directors, representatives, officers, employees, agents, advisors, associates nor any other person, for an
9、y of the information or for any action taken by you on the basis of the information or opinions expressed in this document.The following information contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on AgAus current expectations and beliefs, as well as a number of assum
10、ptions concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors, many of which are outside AgAus control that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. You are cautioned
11、 not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements because actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied. All forward-looking statements are based on information available to AgAu on this date and AgAu expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward
12、 looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance.DisclaimerAgAu Capital Pty Ltd贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Table of ContentsTable of ContentsTable of ContentsTable of ContentsI.Overview of AgAu Capital
13、II.Market OpportunityIII.Investment StrategiesIV.TeamV.Performance RecordVI.Fund TermsVII.AppendicesAgAu Capital Pty Ltd贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Overview of AgAu Capital Pty LimitedCompelling Market OpportunityGold/Silver is the only Currency not beholden to a Government.Gold/Silver is traditionally the m
14、ost effective hedge against loose monetary policy.Gold/Silver equities offer leveraged exposure to gold price risesGold/Silver equities are massively undervalued relative to goldLow/No correlation to other assets, notably in extreme market conditions.Fundamental Approach Select companies with lowest
15、 cost per ounce of reserves Select companies most likely to convert resources into production.Select companies with highest cost of production which provide greatest leverage to increasing gold priceHistoric Gold Producing landholdersDiversify production to minimize Sovereign risk Experienced TeamSe
16、nior team 20 years experience in Investment Banking, Trading and Commodity Price Risk Management.Pre-eminent market insight/analysis, trading and risk management skills. Producer Financial Risk Management, Central Bank Operations, Project Finance Analysis, Proprietary Trading, International Investme
17、nt Bank Commodity Exposure and Risk Management, Market leading Macro-Economic analysisStrong Performance Significant outperformance of traditional Equity returns.Reduced volatility versus comparable indexes.Negative Interest Rates for equivalent rated assets.A Uniquely Experienced Team and a Compell
18、ing Market OpportunityI.Overview贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Industry OverviewGlobal Mine Supply in Significant Decline- Peak Global Gold production seen in 2001- South Africa, Australia, USA suffering increasingly large production declines- No significant discovery of Precious Metals deposits this decade - S
19、ignificant Reserve depletion via Mine Production- Silver to outperform Gold in coming years. No stockpile. Inelastic supply- Discontinuance of Central Bank Sales and Producer HedgingMassive Increase in Global Demand for Physical Precious Metals-Investment Demand (Traditional and Situational)-Fiat Cu
20、rrency rejection-Safe Haven Currency / Risk Diversification-Capital Preservation versus Capital AppreciationII. Market Opportunity贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Gold Since the Nixon DefaultII. Market Opportunity贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Declining Supply & Rising DemandII. Market Opportunity贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Equity Ma
21、rket OverviewII. Market OpportunityGold equities form a tiny component of the overall equity market. A minor increase in capital allocation to the Precious Metal sector will have a dramatic effect on associated equity prices.The HUI Index of 15 largest Un-hedged Gold Producers has comparable market
22、capitalisation to McDonalds Corporation or Boeing Inc. Every Gold and Silver mine in the World can today be bought for less than the market capitalisation of large US retailer, Walmart.Precious Metals equities are massively undervalued relative to the physical metal.- Gold shares, when valued versus
23、 the gold price are cheaper than when gold was $270 per ounce in 2002.Natural Leverage of Producers to the Metal Price. - The inherent call option of unhedged gold in the ground.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Equity Market OverviewII. Market OpportunityGold shares, when valued versus the gold price are cheaper
24、than when gold was $270 per ounce in 2002.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Compelling Market OpportunityII. Market OpportunityLong Term TrendMarket Capitalisation2.82x175 bioG E2.75x171 bioMicrosoft2.67x166 bioAT & T1.39x86 bioGoogle3.48x216 bioWalmart0.64x40 bioCitigroup1.37x85 bioIntel0.08x5 bioAIG1.93x120 bioI
25、BM1.53x95 bioH P0.51x32 bioBoeing0.94x58 bioMcDonalds1x62 bioHUI Gold IndexHUI MultipleMarket Cap. USD5 Dec 2008Index / Stock贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Macro Economic OverviewII. Market Opportunity Gold A True Store of Wealth.- Dow Jones 30 Index devalued over 75% in gold terms since 2002.- Gold has appreci
26、ated 2000% in US Dollar terms since 1971.- Investment in US Treasuries today guarantees a capital loss via Negative Real Interest Rates.Macro-Economic analysis incredibly bullish for Precious Metals.- Massively inflationary policies from Governments/Central Banks globally via bailouts due to the “Fi
27、nancial Crisis”. - Currently over 4 Trillion Dollars globally.- Competitive Devaluation of ALL currencies.- Inevitable flight from Fiat Currency to tangible assets.- Paper Metal versus Physical Metal. Refer the 1966 London Gold Pool. 贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Compelling Market OpportunityII. Market Opportu
28、nityMonetary InflationInflation Adjusted GoldGlobal Mine Production Decline贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件2007 - ? Financial CrisisII. Market Opportunity贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Investment StrategiesIII. Investment StrategiesBuy gold reserves cheaplyConcentrate on the companies whose reserves are most attractively va
29、lued.Invest in high cost producersHigh cost producers have the greatest operational leverage to an increase in the gold price. Optionality.Gold is harder to find. More will be found where it was before.Companies who control significant historic production sites mothballed for decades due to price an
30、d indifference.Diversify globally.Evaluate country risk and diversify accordingly.Synthesize Silver ProductionSilver is significantly undervalued relative to Gold. Limited market. Synthetically convert gold production to silver production.Strategies贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Buy Gold Reserves CheaplyIII. In
31、vestment StrategiesMetal in the ground provides shareholders with a very real call option on the metal itself. - No hedging is a fundamental requirementMarket Capitalisation divided by Proven and Probable Reserves. The lower the better. Price of Gold used to calculate Proven and Probable Reserves un
32、derstated in our view. - Many Producers using $500-600 per ounce to calculate reserve base. - Reserves Increase at higher prices in most cases. - Economic conversion potential of Resources to Reserves. Strip Ratios.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Invest In High Cost ProducersIII. Investment Strategies Unlike man
33、y other equity investments, we prefer exposure to Producers with high costs and therefore very tight margins. Natural leverage to higher prices inevitable.-Consider the following example of a gold price of $800 per ounce.Miner A produces at $400 per ounce. Their margin is $400 per ounce.Miner B prod
34、uces at $700 per ounce. Their margin is $100 per ounce.-The Gold Price subsequently rises to $1000 per ounce.Miner A still produces at $400 per ounce. Their margin is now $600 per ounce. An increased profit margin of 50%.Miner B still produces at $700 per ounce. Their margin is now $300 per ounce. A
35、n increased profit margin of 200%.-The share price of miner B should mirror the obvious outperformance. 贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Historic GoldfieldsMore to Yield.III. Investment StrategiesMany historic multi-million ounce gold producing regions have been dormant for more than a Century. Many simply shut a
36、fter the mid 1800 gold rushes or the end of World War 1 due to costs, lack of a labour force and lack of capital. - Many historic mining regions have not been seriously re-worked or explored with modern methods and technology.- Many suffered due to disjointed and fractured ownership. Some regions ar
37、e consolidated under one focused owner for the first time in their rich history. Examples such as:-Ballarat/ Bendigo in Victoria, Charters Towers in Queensland, Mt Lyell in Western Tasmania, the Carlin Trend in Nevada, Bathurst/Hargreaves in Western New South Wales.Gold doesnt appear in the crust in
38、 single “pipes” like diamonds. Where there is one gold mine there will be others. Red Lake Ontario, now controlled by Goldcorp Inc.Pure Silver mines are located in Mexico, Peru and Argentina. Historic areas again.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Synthesize Silver ProductionIII. Investment StrategiesThere are very
39、 few pure Silver producers available anywhere to invest in. The Silver supply-demand imbalance suggests significant outperformance of Gold as an investment.- Silver is generally a bi-product of lead zinc and copper mines.-Supply is inelastic until pure silver mines from Mexico, Peru and Argentina be
40、come viable at much higher prices.Use of simple derivative contracts (with superior rated global banking institutions) allows AgAu Capital to convert Gold production to Silver production.-Buy silver / Sell Gold contracts effectively converts 1 ounce of Gold production to 80 ounces of silver producti
41、on. -We expect the silver / gold ratio to fall from 80 to 1 at present to around 16-1 in the next 5 years.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Gold/Silver RatioIII. Investment Strategies We expect significant outperformance by silver in coming years. Historic Bi-metallic monetary standard set at 16 to 1. Geologically
42、 the ratio is 14 to 1 but currently trading at 80-1 Industrial and Monetary applications ensure demand贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Diversify GloballyIII. Investment StrategiesAustralian Investors have very few options when looking at attractive Precious Metal investments in the local market.- We see significa
43、ntly better value outside Australia at present.International Investors must be cognizant of Sovereign Risk when looking at Precious Metals as an asset class. Diversification is essential for risk management.- Nationalisation of Mines Crystallex Inc in Venezuela - Exchange Controls Zimplats in Zimbab
44、we.AgAu Capital monitors sovereign risk and adjusts portfolio balance accordingly.-Preference for companies incorporated in Commonwealth countries with operations in mature economies.-Manage exposure to African and South American production depending on country risk.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Global Product
45、ionIII. Investment StrategiesGlobal Gold Production has changed dramatically over the past 3 decades. A Precious Metals portfolio cannot ignore developing economies and countries of lesser sovereign risk贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Experienced Licensed TeamIV. Team RelevantExperience(years)Previous FirmsExper
46、ience HighlightsInvestment ProfessionalsLaurie McGuirk22CitigroupTransmedia GroupHead of Energy Derivatives Asia Pacific. Three times voted No 1 Corporate Risk Manager for Strategic Advice by Australias top 500 companies.Analysis, structuring and implementation of significant Precious Metals hedge b
47、ooks for major Gold Mining Companies and Central Banks.Construct and manage the groups Investment portfolio particularly PMs and Equity portfolio.Mark Long20Merrill LynchCitigroupManaging Director and Head of Commodities for Asia Pacific. Responsible for trading, structuring, sales and risk manageme
48、nt of all commodities in Asia.Head of Commodities Asia PacificKyle Shortland14Suncorp Metway / Westpac / Next FinancialVarious roles including Senior Portfolio Manager, Prop trader, and Model Development as well as writing financial market commentaries for a number of global sources.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51
49、)课件Illustrative Investment TermsVI. Fund Terms Citco Fund Services (Australia) LimitedFund AdministratorDLA Philips FoxFund Lawyers AustraliaWalkersFund Lawyers CaymansInvestment Strategy Earn an attractive risk-adjusted return by creating a globally diversified portfolio of gold mining stocks. Abso
50、lute Return Strategy employing both Fundamental and Technical analysis with a Long Delta position at all times. Specific sector concentration with commensurate risk diversification. Appropriate strategic futures and derivatives trading to enhance return and ameliorate risk.Target SizeUS$ 1 billion (
51、Soft close at $600 million with excess capacity allocated to initial investors).Base CurrencyUS$ Fund StructureMaster-Feeder Cayman Islands DomiciledInvestment Period3-10 yearsManagement Fee2% of committed capital paid monthly.Performance Fee20% of profits paid quarterly with a high water mark.Prefe
52、rred Return15%ExpensesThe Manager will be reimbursed for all financing costs and all direct and indirect operating costs and expenses and all out-of-pocket costs and expenses incurred in connection with the operation of the assets and the provision of administrative services Diversification Requirem
53、entsCompany Exposure: Not more than 10% FUM exposed to any one company, Not more than 5% of a single company. Not more than five days average daily volume.Geographic: Appropriate Diversification of Sovereign risk.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件AppendixAgAu Global Producer Fund I. Mitigating RisksII. AgAus Portf
54、olioIII. Representative TransactionsIV. Australian Financial Services License贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Mitigating RisksAppendix RiskProtection/MitigantMetal PriceOverwhelming physical market demand underpins price.Significantly Reduced Official Sales and Producer HedgingFutures Market for our portfolio hed
55、ging and positioning.Derivatives both OTC and ETO. No Gold or Silver Lease exposure permitted.Employ both Fundamental and Technical analysis for strategic positioning/Hedging/re-weighting.Operation/ProjectCore portfolio production cost at industry standard. Low Cost eg Goldcorp.Analysis includes Geo
56、logy, Underground vrs Open Pit, Production History, Infrastructure, Costs, Experience of Contract miners. Production diversity. Single mine companies rate lower than multiple production sites.LiquidityExchange Listed Equities No more than 10% FUM exposed to any entity.No greater than 5% ownership of
57、 common shares of an entity.Exposure no greater than WAV (weekly average volume) for last 12 months.OTC derivatives must be a function of either Gold or Silver price. No Exceptions.ManagementReputation. Know their pedigree.Experience. Accountants dont make good explorers. Geologists dont make good C
58、EOS.Horses for courses.Skin in the game.Board Experience, involvement and oversight.Sovereign Diversification.Multiple production sites offset some of the risk. eg Newmont.Continual monitoring via respected independent sources.Common Sense.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Lowest cost Proven and Probable Reserves
59、in the world.Significant exploration potential Gold production since 1873.Ghana based production possibly the best sovereign risk in Africa.High cost producer. (+$700).Difficult ore-body now understood and to be profitably exploited.Production Cost declines expectedExchange Traded OptionsInfrastruct
60、ure completedNegative market sentimentReserves Calculated at $560Massive undervalue on Peer Comparison basis.Portfolio Composition/Stock SelectionAppendix ProfileListing:NYSE, TSEProduction p.a.2.5 mio Reserves (P+P off US$550)50 Mio +Mine Life15 YEARS+No of Operations16Share Price US$29.60Market Ca
61、p23 Billion US$Shares issued731 mioWAV (NY-TOR)18 million sharesResources 25 million +Cost per Oz Reserve.$450Cornerstone investment of the AgAu Portfolio.“Bombproof” gold investment.The lowest-cost and fastest growing multi-million ounce gold producer. (-$300)Canada/USA production. Significant Silv
62、er exposureHighly liquidExchange Traded Derivatives and Options markets.Control one of the worlds most lucrative and under-explored Gold zones. Red Lake.Massive exploration upside potential and budget.Dividends.Debt FreeNon Hedger.Reserves calculated at $550Goldcorp IncGolden Star Resources LimitedP
63、rofileListingAMEX, TSEProduction p.a300KReserves (P+P)5.1 MioMine Life12+ yearsNo. of Operations3Share PriceUS$0.80Market CapUS$200 mioShares Issued240mioWAV (NY-TOR)15 million sharesResources 2 million ozsCost per Oz Reserve$80AgAu Capital selects appropriate Precious Metal equity investments follo
64、wing intensive analysis focussed on maximum leverage to the gold price via proprietary qualitative and quantitative measures. Examples such as :贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Portfolio Composition/Stock SelectionAppendix Silver Standard Resources IncProfileListing:NASDAQ, TSEProduction p.a.Soon to Commence Rese
65、rves (P+P off US$11 ag)200 Mio +Mine Life10 YEARS+No of Projects15Share Price US$18Market Cap1.2 Billion US$Shares issued67 mioWAV (NY-TOR)8 million sharesResources(ag) 1 Billion +Cost per Oz Reserve Ag.US$6Cornerstone Silver investment.Largest in-ground silver resources in the world. Projects in US
66、A, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Argentina. Control of historic silver producing areasPure Silver Call Option High cut-off grades for Reserve and Resource estimatesTransition to Silver Producer on budget and timetable.Exchange Traded Derivatives and Options markets.Massive exploration u
67、pside potential and budget.Debt FreeNon Hedger.Lihir Gold LimitedProfileListingASX,TSE, Nasdaq Production p.a1mioReserves (P+P)24 MioMine Life15+ yearsNo. of Operations3Share PriceUS$2.00Market CapUS$4.5 BillionShares Issued2.2 BillionWAV (ASX)100 million sharesResources 35 million ozsCost per Oz Re
68、serveUS$180Low cost Proven and Probable Reserves.Significant exploration potential Victoria Gold production since 1850.Total control of historic Ballarat GoldfieldRecent close-out of hedge book.Geothermal Power Station on site.PNG Sovereign risk negligible due to Geography.Medium cost producer. (+$4
69、50).Exchange Traded OptionsInfrastructureReserves Calculated at $600AgAu Capital selects appropriate Precious Metal equity investments following intensive analysis focussed on maximum leverage to the gold price via proprietary qualitative and quantitative measures. Examples such as :贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51
70、)课件Representative TransactionsAppendix Sell Oil Buy Gold at 7 Barrels per ounce- Strategic Long term trade first published at M - August 30, 2005 (and every month or so thereafter).贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Representative TransactionsAppendix Sell Dow Jones 30 Index Buy Gold at 25- Strategic Long term trade first published at M June 20, 2005.贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件Australian Financial Services LicenseAppendix AgAu Capital is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments commission (ASIC) AgAu Capital has held an AFSL (306152) since Nov 06贵金属投资技术分析英文版 (51)课件
