世界经济学本

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1、箕先吗诧火鲤纤排丫瘸允谜刺余育苞萄蛛乍成炙拘原莫链吃球吼玫箭帜站世界经济学本世界经济学本General Theory of World EconomicsZhang binDepartment of Economics School of Business and ManagementDonghua University捻棕哺胜识堆萍堕誉夯诈桶勋婚懒蒲豁零田砚矿腻热臆跪罗死湃筹消罪煽世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/20241General Introduction to the Course1. The Concept of World Economics（1）The “Total-sum”

2、 Definition 世界经济是各国国民经济的总和。世界经济是各国国民经济的总和。 世界经济是在社会发展到一定阶段形成的处于复世界经济是在社会发展到一定阶段形成的处于复杂的相互作用和相互依存关系的各国经济的总和。杂的相互作用和相互依存关系的各国经济的总和。（2）The “Market” Definition 世界经济就是世界市场。世界经济就是世界市场。瘦圭宜播吨缨掐迫狠庞吁轩唬润彬绦共颤藩想腥毛撂雪幻死僵凌薪嘛驯谆世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/20242（3）The “World System” DefinitionWorld economy refers to all trade re

3、lations and movements of capital between geographical units. It can be understood as a system of rules, organizations and institutions that regulate world economic relations. It can also be understood as a competitive states system, where states stand in a continuous struggle for power, acting on th

4、e international market for their own interests.烟祷描络共固除漱株贯酝攫宫汇惟轮膜耸状揉慰记软涡凭安蹈懒辰泵骆篆世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/20243(4) The “Integration” Definition 世界经济是生产力、世界市场、国际分工及国世界经济是生产力、世界市场、国际分工及国际货币信用关系发展到一定阶段，世界各主际货币信用关系发展到一定阶段，世界各主要国民经济通过世界规模的紧密的相互联系、要国民经济通过世界规模的紧密的相互联系、依存、竞争、对抗而形成的经济结合体。依存、竞争、对抗而形成的经济结合体。综合上述观点：综合上述观

5、点： 世界经济是各国市场经济基础上构成的世界经济是各国市场经济基础上构成的复合型的全球市场经济运行体系，是在主权复合型的全球市场经济运行体系，是在主权国家干预下的生产、分配、交换和消费的全国家干预下的生产、分配、交换和消费的全过程，是由不同发展水平的国家与国家集团过程，是由不同发展水平的国家与国家集团组成的一个相互联系、相互依赖的共同运动组成的一个相互联系、相互依赖的共同运动的有机整体。的有机整体。踢咋即扮吨罩尔溉娟邓不凉衫距豆涪奖塌意嘎己敝硷翻驰邹且采贯咙铱契世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202442. The Difference between World Economics and

6、 International Economics 世界经济世界经济 大洲经济大洲经济 区域区域 经济经济 国国家家经经济济国家、区域国家、区域或集团经济或集团经济国家、区域或国家、区域或集团经济集团经济国国际际经经济济诀庚汉七顷峨候贞档钦貉李垂瘫悍狞汰菲却翼部错竞仿洼演廷神钠印拍苛世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202453. The Research Fields of the World Economics(1) The fundamentals of the world economy Concept; Motives; Overall structures; Overall grow

7、th and performance; Coordination of trade policies,foreign exchange policies and macroeconomic policies.(2) The historical development of the world economy Trade liberalization; Capital internalization; Production internationalization and integration.(3) The study of major economies Major national e

8、conomies; Major regional economies.槐超擞儿疥螟抠嘛陈鳞莉贯美拥简亨臻懦伐舜卖机陪迈榨圆珠杖涨衫生任世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202464。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点a. Neo-realism: Hegemonic Stability Theory About Robert Gilpin1930 生于佛蒙特；生于佛蒙特；1952 毕业于佛蒙特大学毕业于佛蒙特大学1954 康乃尔大学硕士；康乃尔大学硕士；1956 加州大学伯克利分校博士加州大学伯克利分校博士1960-1961 哈佛大学博士后哈

9、佛大学博士后1961年起年起 普林斯顿大学国际关系学教授普林斯顿大学国际关系学教授1975-1976 美国总统技术和经济顾问团成员美国总统技术和经济顾问团成员主要著作：主要著作：The Political Economy of International Relations (1987) 是当前西方是当前西方IPE领域最杰出的研领域最杰出的研究成果之一究成果之一遗信兆汞益吞楞念兑青杜动图扼生舟莱害伤垛从沦君将陷始蔷刺高瘦撩镊世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202474。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点 The main idea of H

10、egemonic Stability Theory 霸权带来稳定说霸权带来稳定说 霸主自我牺牲说霸主自我牺牲说 霸权必衰说霸权必衰说 霸权丧失导致不稳定说霸权丧失导致不稳定说 After-hegemony theory汐倍滤蜂旷栖哉戌榨楚贿鲍搽妖醒鸿霸逊宅柿蛮葬挝胚阴伺灰色缠哆瘸择世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202484。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点b. Neo-idealism: Interdependence Theory About Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye,Jr罗伯特罗伯特基欧汉：基欧汉：

11、1966 哈佛大学博士，现为杜克大学政治学哈佛大学博士，现为杜克大学政治学教授，美国科学与艺术学院院士。教授，美国科学与艺术学院院士。约瑟夫约瑟夫奈：奈： 哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长两人为当前两人为当前IPE领域最具影响力的学者，两人于领域最具影响力的学者，两人于1977年合著的年合著的 Power and Interdependence:World Politics in Transition 是相是相互依存论的代表作。互依存论的代表作。 The main idea of Interdependence Theory 多渠道交流多渠道交流 多领域相融多领域相融 武力

12、作用下降武力作用下降褥饶驼蓄垮穆吐咀拱歹恤孪凿盯筑秃唉产野战瞅霸昂句侵浪尝辨浆垄侩遗世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202494。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点c. Dependency Theory Raul Prebisch and the Core-periphery Theory Andre Gunder Frank and the Metropolis-satellite Theory Dos Santos and the definition of Dependence案结黄台鬼喧喻幂舅疗腔贰笨如眺越摆喷蔗辣依腹辅胰软束舅绣

13、部庶销揪世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024105. About the textbook(1) The main idea of the textbooknA synthetic and comprehensive survey of the trade, monetary, investment and financial dimensions of the contemporary world economy: nInternational economic activity must have a secure political foundation, but the cont

14、emporary political foundation for international economic liberalism are fragile;nThe end of the Cold War removed the security rationale for economic cooperation among advanced economies;u The multilateral trading system is challenged by regionalism; u The global monetary and financial systems are un

15、stable;u Anti-globalization and protectionism are rising.韵蘸炬锑惫鸥缠销麓吊糊种蓄粟彼栗瞩句底斌待冤哉尸陪弥型谗琶略暴勺世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024115. About the textbook(2) The structure of the textbook逸槐屁絮陡虾瞅矢蹲晨诛惩咽蛾聪癣娇构何盘淤乐穗燕硕刻熬桑祈江裕线世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024126. Reference Books and PeriodicalsBooks:(1)(1)张幼文等张幼文等 世界经济概论世界经济概论 高等教育出版社高等教育

16、出版社 2003 2003年第年第2 2版版(2)(2)张幼文张幼文 金芳金芳 世界经济学世界经济学 立信会计出版社立信会计出版社 2006 2006年年(3)(3)池元吉池元吉 世界经济概论世界经济概论 高等教育出版社高等教育出版社 2006 2006年第年第2 2版版(4)(4)樊勇明樊勇明 西方国际政治学西方国际政治学 上海人民出版社上海人民出版社20012001年年1 1月月(5)(5)宋新宁宋新宁 陈岳陈岳 国际政治经济学概论国际政治经济学概论 中国人民大学出版社中国人民大学出版社 19991999年年1212月月狸澡善纵臂谅佬膝窍丑茨埃顺淌等乞墟鄂舀奔广僚雍圈凹湃睁皮萧彩淘炮世界经

17、济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024136. Reference Books and PeriodicalsPeriodicals:(1)世界经济研究上海社科院世经所世界经济研究上海社科院世经所(2)世界经济中国世界经济学会和中国社科院世世界经济中国世界经济学会和中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所界经济与政治研究所(3)世界经济与政治中国社科院世界经济与政治世界经济与政治中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所研究所(4)世界经济与政治论坛江苏社科院世界经济与政治论坛江苏社科院(5)世界经济中国人民大学资料复印中心世界经济中国人民大学资料复印中心舱培锦费玛善遮等禽礼赢怎番袋百轻奉祭枉态储职化幢屋姚掂网奢枚铣

18、民世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202414Introduction: The Fragile Global Economy Key Words and Phrases1. Capital flow 2. trade protection 3. wealth effect 4. corporate restructuring 5. entrepreneurship 6.Federal Reserve 7.service industry 8. international competitiveness 9. NAE 10. speculative bubble 11. economic b

19、oom(recession) 12. treasury bill 13. information economy 14. multinational corporation 15. globalization 16. emerging market 17. international financial and monetary system 18. financial crisis 19. real wages 20. regional economic arrangement 21. NAFTA 22. fast track authority 23. Bretton Woods Syst

20、em 24. appropriation 25. multilateralism 26. multitrack trade policy 27. managed trade 28. economic regionalism 29. EU 30. Plaza Agreement 31. appreciation 32. command economy 33. deregulation 34. privatization 氟脯混诉战万风趣谤该陀葡称霜廖谨墨挚正愈植碉振误八葛赚崔垮濒簇故世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202415Introduction: The Fragile Global E

21、conomy Main PointsI.The Growth and Instability of CapitalismII.NAE: the Triumph of CapitalismIII.The Global EconomyIV.Conclusion部噎绅蹲干盆选绕推循践裁内挎姐裳辫萨接擅伙涡曳纲隙莱能双瓜娶律盒世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202416IntroductionI. The Growth and Instability of Capitalism1. Technological progress:the driving force of capitalism Abou

22、t Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) 美籍奥地利经济学家，当代西方经济学家重要代美籍奥地利经济学家，当代西方经济学家重要代表人物之一。表人物之一。 主要著作：经济发展理论主要著作：经济发展理论1912，经济周期，经济周期1939 资本主义、社会主义和民主主义资本主义、社会主义和民主主义1942 主要观点：创新就是把一种从未有过的关于生产要主要观点：创新就是把一种从未有过的关于生产要素和生产条件的新组合引入生产体系。素和生产条件的新组合引入生产体系。 创新创新 创造性的毁灭过程创造性的毁灭过程 经济周期经济周期猪晶辖搐埠勒冷品身滁何张熬粘筑涯锗噎尼充奖箱淘亨蛾辜母断欲餐

23、决肠世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202417Figure: Business cycleReal GDPTimeSlump/TroughRecoveryBoom/PeakSlump/TroughRecessionLong run trend筛坏乒缆忘杰驶芽浓饲琴黍乔师擎寓我庶尔曳翼无撼屎柑例掌挨侨僧橇巍世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202418IntroductionI. The Growth and Instability of Capitalism2. Instability: the aftermath of creative destruction(1) Imbalance

24、of economic development within and among nations(2) Threat to traditional social values,beliefs and institutions(3) Periodic recessions and downturns(4) Concentration of wealth, power and economic activities(5) Revolt against an open global economy坤儒胰望堂瑟说仕哺卑驮意拿褂熔绞冲会找戌奔钱颧羞悔拉遇俭恩肝烦僵世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202

25、419Introduction:I. The Growth and Instability of Capitalism3. The precondition for the stability of capitalist system: strong and wise leadership two functions of international leadership(1) Promote international cooperation(2) Ensure minimal safeguard for the losers俺苞正挠篮此租采谱埂复票廊蘑祭起治瓷拆徒瞅藤向由殃载挚翼深叛滦供世

26、界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202420Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism1. The general reasons for NAE(1) Government deregulation(2) Corporate restructuring(3) Technological advances2. The specific reasons for NAE(1) Large exports to overseas markets(2) Large amounts of imported capital(3) Skillful managem

27、ent of the economy by the Fed(4) Full of raw material prices毯奈容句寅月您吭末堆傈盂冉戏嫉炎哨砸厩写来汀姥坚窿澳藉叔爵揖熏儡世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202421表：表：Chronology of Alan Greenspan1926.3.6 生于美国纽约市生于美国纽约市1948 纽约大学商学院经济学学士纽约大学商学院经济学学士1950 纽约大学商学院经济学硕士纽约大学商学院经济学硕士1977 纽约大学博士纽约大学博士1966 尼克松总统经济政策研究室主任尼克松总统经济政策研究室主任1974 福特总统经济顾问委员会主席福特总统

28、经济顾问委员会主席1981-1983 里根总统经济顾问委员会主席里根总统经济顾问委员会主席1987 由里根提名，出任由里根提名，出任Fed 主席主席1991 布什提名，连任布什提名，连任Fed 主席主席1996 克林顿提名，再任克林顿提名，再任Fed 主席主席2001 克林顿提名，第三次连任克林顿提名，第三次连任Fed 主席主席2006 卸任卸任戳汪柴藩畸炒辊釜撰薪柑辊毡锻畔炯溪缨锨勺絮衬商猛书煎吉垒搭镇虽脐世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202422Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism3. The Characteristics of NA

29、E (1)Low inflation(2)Low unemployment(3)Low federal budget deficit(4)High expansion/productivity(5)Wealth effect褥拉爱甲玫目掘煌酸虚粉轴朔蛀妈莹浇晤猜乱骆邯泉欢磐发噪叁唁凌妨翠世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202423Table:US inflation,unemployment,growth rateGDP Growth Rate(%)CPI (%)Unemployment Rate (%)60-69 Annual Average4.352.364.7870-79 Annual

30、 Average3.187.086.2180-89 Annual Average2.775.557.2790-99 Annual Average2.793.015.71粘佯初络瓤斟惨灿盯胎贼肺烤辙译牲良袒疥渝骏沿盖垮李匪磕钎傲玛猪屿世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202424Figure: Dow Jones Index and Wealth Effect饺爪此览富际掘匙皱例球队涕拙糟将纫尾吹旦拆陷冒赛沈纤原堤核纠篓佬世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202425Figure: NASDAQ Index 1971-2010话茧届属揪散快判十颤话隘牧供悔套揣窿臃煮灸距尊启逢忍那默动狐亲氰世界经

31、济学本世界经济学本7/30/202426Figure: Dow Jones Index and Wealth Effect是茁么歼屿拭沁绸旨瘦卿祥知灾腔含娠玻驭慎孔揣枪龚又裳搬跟却榔荤弛世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202427Figure: World Oil Price (19702005)痈沽尹倪筒钻变搐呸攒辙斑象除缅嗽姓话痒吁衅贸忻瓢芜魂捆父怪讫右盯世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202428图:国际油价变动(1946-2010)芍迢孵缀付偏蚕翌滚偿姑予装争离同篆砷硝盯沧破潜罕赞估咖亢塌裕枝胰世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202429Introduction: II.NAE:

32、 Triumph of Capitalism4. The problems of the U.S. economy(1) The largest debtor(2) The inevitable burst of the NAE bubble The paradox of technological innovationTechnological innovation NAE high speed of innovation the surplus of technology waste of technology lose of venture capital 旁顽颧睁涉埂清枫翌恕疏贷泉楞史

33、绍眯钮磐妙蠕一链觉贬磐敞珠凌葱矢浩世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202430图图: :美国的双赤字美国的双赤字( (单位单位: :亿美圆亿美圆) )廊概翔拓道但惦蓉岂眶沼诈眷静转宿瞄锭凳袭隆枯董商兔幕钉洋颅秉空趣世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202431Table: Chinas Holdings of US Securities( $bn)SecuritiesT-securitiesAmount% of Total Foreign Holdings20021881189.6200325515910.4200434122312.1200552731015.2200669939718.9

34、200792247820.32008120572723.62009146489524.2墨箩募板潜寞锄腿录虐顽秩园涂磕乡足隋刑貌乓揣迢渣需方榨嚏钉下培境世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202432Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism5. 次贷危机（次贷危机（subprime mortgage crisis）（1）基本情况）基本情况n2007年年4月月2日：日： 美国第二大次级房贷公司新世纪金融公司申请破产保护。美国第二大次级房贷公司新世纪金融公司申请破产保护。n2008年年5月月29日日 贝尔斯登贝尔斯登公司股东接受收购协议，同意将公司出售给

35、摩根大通公司股东接受收购协议，同意将公司出售给摩根大通n2008年年7月月13日日 美国财政部和美联储连手推出了拯救美国抵押贷款业两大巨头美国财政部和美联储连手推出了拯救美国抵押贷款业两大巨头房地美房地美和和房利美房利美的的计划，其中包含了向这两家公司直接提供贷款和买入其股份在内的一系列措施计划，其中包含了向这两家公司直接提供贷款和买入其股份在内的一系列措施 n2008年年7月月14日日 索罗斯称当前金融危机是其一生中碰到的最严重的金融危机索罗斯称当前金融危机是其一生中碰到的最严重的金融危机n2008年年9月月15日日 雷曼雷曼兄弟申请破产保护，兄弟申请破产保护，美林证券美林证券被美国银行收购

36、，当日美股大泻被美国银行收购，当日美股大泻504点；最大保险点；最大保险集团集团AIG陷入财政危机陷入财政危机n2008年年9月月21日日 美联储宣布批准美国第一大投行美联储宣布批准美国第一大投行高盛高盛和第二大投行和第二大投行摩根斯坦利摩根斯坦利实施业务转型，转为实施业务转型，转为银行控股公司，即普通商业银行。银行控股公司，即普通商业银行。n2008年年10月月3日日 布什签署了布什签署了7000亿美元的救市计划亿美元的救市计划沥绚厄袜淫吕彪夸炮削璃贾稿私捎营坪泼梅可瞒滔惩朝渺掉镐趁秃焉肥崩世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202433Introduction: II.NAE: Triump

37、h of Capitalism（2）什么是次贷危机）什么是次贷危机无房少房、支付能力低、信用差的穷人，在购买住房后无力偿无房少房、支付能力低、信用差的穷人，在购买住房后无力偿还抵押贷款而引发的金融问题。还抵押贷款而引发的金融问题。 美国房地产贷款系统里面分为了三类：优质贷款市场、次优美国房地产贷款系统里面分为了三类：优质贷款市场、次优级的贷款市场、次级贷款市场。目前出问题的就是美国的第级的贷款市场、次级贷款市场。目前出问题的就是美国的第三类市场。一类贷款市场面向信用额度等级较高、收入稳定三类市场。一类贷款市场面向信用额度等级较高、收入稳定可靠的优质客户，而三类贷款市场是面向收入证明缺失、负可靠

38、的优质客户，而三类贷款市场是面向收入证明缺失、负债较重的客户，因信用要求程度不高，其贷款利率通常比一债较重的客户，因信用要求程度不高，其贷款利率通常比一般抵押贷款高出般抵押贷款高出2%至至3%，在美国次级贷款市场所占份额并，在美国次级贷款市场所占份额并不大。按照官方说法，次级房贷占美国整体房贷市场比重的不大。按照官方说法，次级房贷占美国整体房贷市场比重的7%到到8%，但其利润最高，风险最大。，但其利润最高，风险最大。昼首幂碴浓晰保螟雪颊骑须察胆耽舒储臆繁改炒稀览挥坏亲猎挟煮培谬裳世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202434图图:次贷危机示意图次贷危机示意图成三鹃本橇涸饯芹搞辆蹲楞撩龟枉匙酌物

39、郑脾参澈张蜕禁朽普囱滨拧母七世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202435Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism（3）爆发及蔓延原因）爆发及蔓延原因互联网泡沫问题未解决互联网泡沫问题未解决虚拟经济过度膨胀虚拟经济过度膨胀美国的经济政策：双赤字美国的经济政策：双赤字+ +出口管制出口管制经济自由主义理念导致对金融业放松监管经济自由主义理念导致对金融业放松监管其他国家金融市场的开放其他国家金融市场的开放 裁伍涪讣沽滦眷面裳酗傀玉反傻历梗幽龄丝胀邱蜀褐镑烯线炔乍瞒洽俊雍世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202436Introduction: II.NA

40、E: Triumph of Capitalism（4）全球蔓延）全球蔓延n冰岛：货币贬值一半，冰岛：货币贬值一半，3家银行欠债家银行欠债610亿美圆，亿美圆，12倍于经济总量，人均负债倍于经济总量，人均负债20万美圆，濒临破产。万美圆，濒临破产。2008年年10月月24日，日，IMF向该国提供向该国提供20亿援助贷款。亿援助贷款。n此后，此后， IMF同意向乌克兰提供同意向乌克兰提供160亿援助贷款；向匈亿援助贷款；向匈牙利提供牙利提供100亿，目前仍在与亿，目前仍在与IMF 协商贷款的有白俄协商贷款的有白俄罗斯、塞尔维亚、巴基斯坦等。罗斯、塞尔维亚、巴基斯坦等。n雷曼兄弟破产后，欧洲金融机构

41、因与之衍生产品交雷曼兄弟破产后，欧洲金融机构因与之衍生产品交易而面临巨额损失。易而面临巨额损失。哼迄荤什肚横默桅身麻辞叭环笑迷渺匀昂须吨价寞蝗磅低裤想篷石胜召粟世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202437Introduction: III. The Global Economy1. The characteristics of global economy(1) From a sharply divided international economy to an increasingly integrated global capital economy(2) Emerging market

42、s shifting global economic power and creating an competitive international economy, resulting global economic imbalance(3) Advanced industrialized countries shifting from manufacturing-based to service-based economies(4) The tide of globalization帖魂验访迭沈辟稽源海缺铅宿箕姜呜钉臃蹿榆身记玩扒参议乞芬痉潮么堡世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/20243

43、8Table: China-US Merchandise Trade Imbalance （bn USD）YearChinese DataUS DataExportsImportsBalanceExportsImportsBalance19801.03.8-2.83.81.12.719852.74.4-1.73.93.9019904.85.0-0.24.815.2-10.4199524.716.18.611.745.6-33.8200052.122.429.716.3100.1-83.8200154.326.228.119.2102.3-83.1200270.027.242.822.1125.

44、2-103.1200392.533.958.628.4152.4-124.02004124.944.780.234.7196.7-162.02005162.948.7114.241.8243.5-201.62006203.559.2144.355.2287.8-232.52007232.769.4163.365.2321.5-256.32008252.381.4170.967.2337.7-266.3屿档憾梢逊届咒渣祝涂惜粹雁灶纳只泰痢漏崎斑渴望澜鸿尺诞李耸吭检扒世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202439Table: US Merchandise Trade Balances with M

45、ajor Trading Partners (Bn USD)Country or Trading GroupUS Trade BalanceShare%20072008200920072008 2009World-791.0-800.0-500.9100.0100.0100.0China-256.3-266.3-226.832.433.345.3OPEC-127.4-175.6-61.8EU27-107.4-93.4-60.5Japan-82.8-72.7-44.8Mexico-74.3-64.4-47.5Canada-64.7-74.6-20.2ASEAN-50.6-50.6-38.2颧咏坑

46、壬凡撒欣盾狭友锥层平焰铸浑县缠肮霓恫焕胸碱拜范栓蚊氨通梭鲁世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202440Introduction: III. The Global Economy2. The negative impact of globalization Globalization of financial crises 1997.7.2 Thai baht depreciated 20% 7.11 Philippine peso fell 10.4% Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit fell Singapore dollar fell 17%

47、 (end Dec.) Korean won fell Japanese yen fell 1998.8.17 Russian rouble fell 50% 1997.10.27 Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Peru stock markets fell 13-14% 2008 U.S. subprime (mortgage) crisis 甫獭踏医价快也禁黍震过奔衙芋佩等喂愤炳蹋稍蛮缕时袁嫩怀卸比独饵献世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202441Introduction: III. The Global Economy3

48、. The reasons for the instability of global economy(1)Vulnerability of the international financial and monetary system(2)Spread of regional economic arrangements(3)Political foundation of the international economy underminedA.Political foundations of a stable and prosperous world economya.Strong int

49、ernational leadershipb.Cooperative relations among major economic powersc.Commitment by world citizens to an open economy 命辟综者饿羔农阉蹄着秆抵蔓哨衙肄昔孪茎贩否旅撰铁卿忍茁军型丹翱央世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202442Introduction: III. The Global EconomyB. The political foundations undermineda.American leadership weakenedb.Globalization a

50、ccused by American citizensc.Economic cooperation among major economic powers eroded U.S.: multilateralism multitrack trade policy, managed trade and regionalism EU: concentration on economic unification of the Continent Japan: renewal of attention to Pacific Asia闭暂衫尺佩嘎碴橇横艾颓势奈属援蛤斑缴乏脊鳃展丁豫与侠笺避友串食闻世界经济

51、学本世界经济学本7/30/202443Introduction: III. The Global Economy(4) Market vs stateThe view of economic liberalism:The failure of the command and closed economies market economyDeregulation and privatization of developed countries promotion of market mechanism market forces defeat the state in the economy m

52、arket- dominated world economy will progress toward higher level of prosperity and stabilityGilpins view:The process of creative destruction capitalism creates its own internal enemies capitalism without regulation will damage itself船秤苏舷藉喷式眯褪贮搁痞五貌绥臣律投衬听勺醇故啡暮缎韶牙皮消糙凶世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202444Introduction

53、: IV. Conclusion1.International politics significantly affects the nature and dynamics of the international economy. 2.The international rules/regimes that govern international economic affairs cannot succeed unless they are supported by a strong political base.3.The underpinning of the post-WWII gl

54、obal economy has steadily eroded since the end of the Soviet threat.4.To ensure survival of the global economy, the major powers must recommit themselves to work together to rebuild the weakened political foundations 牧脚庐冻捐秒缕寡欺矮爵凭柔裴瞻巧吩晤室晴韶钟腹断毁钎份臂微翔韧捍世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202445Chapter 1: The Second Great

55、Age of CapitalismKey Words and Phrases 1. Bipolar stability 2.multipolar world 3. geo-economics 4. Unilateralism 5. import-substitution 6. export-led growth 7. trade barrier 8. trade negotiation 9. average tariff 10. barrier to trade to services 11. capital control 12. financial instrument 13. mutua

56、l fund 14. pension fund 15. Derivative 16 FDI 17. capital intensive sector 18. trade liberalization 19. global and regional integration 20. welfare state 21. manufactured goods 22. World Economic Forum 23. Deindustrialization 24. Productive capacity surplus 25. Sovereign nation 26. Merger 27. Overca

57、pacity 28. Underconsumption 29. Expansionary economic policies 30. Laissez faire锭区扇绚惫妈裕陈钮览窃乖默鞭皖蛋借警史疡卧谤豆嚏陨拐谗溶靴酪静淮世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202446Chapter 1: The Second Great Age of CapitalismKey Words and Phrases 31. Bretton Woods System 32. Ethnic and nationalistic conflict 33. Information economy 34. Knowled

58、ge economy 35. Nonresidential fixed capital 36. Product life cycle 37. Diffusion of technology 38. Strategic and technological alliances 39. Luddite 40. Downsizing 41. Reengineering 42. Assembly line 43. Trade surplus 44. Dependency theory 45. Budget deficit 46. Inflation rate 47. ASEAN 48. Cairns G

59、roup 49. Per capita income 50. Total factor productivity 51.EU 52. EEC 53. Regional integration 54. Regional economic bloc 55. Single European Act 56. Uruguay Round 57.trade negotiation 58. RTA 59. Dillon/Kennedy/Tokyo Round 60. Economies of scale唇涟戍思冈皮偶扛澜涂秦慈垫价芯弥喉序延滁往窖阶秤拾川曼纫浮宾骚卖世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024

60、47Chapter 1: The Second Great Age of CapitalismKey Words and Phrases 61. South America regional bloc (Mercosur) 62. Customs union 63. Free trade area 64. Bargain position 65. Treaty on European Union(Maastricht Treaty) 66. Optimun tariff 67. Strategic trade policy 68. Oligopoly 69. Oligopolistic com

61、petition 70. Economic nationalism 71. Stagflation 72. Governance of the world economy 73. Bilateral treaty 74. Gold standard 75. International monetary system 76. Bank of England 77. Great Depression 78. Keynesian Economics 79. Principle of nondiscrimination病箱滦吏哥禽棺痴砷诌盖椿芳曙帽洁盟吕夏帛未忆葵慧酝厚挫诉有疟炎浚世界经济学本世界经济

62、学本7/30/202448Table: Davos World Economic Forum1970 瑞士日内瓦大学商业管理学教授克劳斯瑞士日内瓦大学商业管理学教授克劳斯施瓦布施瓦布(Klaus Schwab)第一次尝试与第一次尝试与1971年年1月召集欧洲一些企业领袖在月召集欧洲一些企业领袖在Davos举办非正式聚会；举办非正式聚会；1971 施瓦布创立施瓦布创立“欧洲管理论坛欧洲管理论坛”，使达沃斯的非正式聚会演变，使达沃斯的非正式聚会演变成年度正式会议成年度正式会议1976 欧洲管理论坛发展成一以成员为基础的组织；欧洲管理论坛发展成一以成员为基础的组织；1979 论坛首次出版年度全球竞争

63、力报告，同年邀请中国参会论坛首次出版年度全球竞争力报告，同年邀请中国参会1982 第一次世界经济领袖非正式会议召开，并成为一年一度的达第一次世界经济领袖非正式会议召开，并成为一年一度的达沃斯论坛的一项传统；沃斯论坛的一项传统；1987 管理论坛更名为管理论坛更名为“世界经济论坛世界经济论坛”；1997 论坛主题：持续的全球化问题；论坛主题：持续的全球化问题；1999 论坛主题：负责任的全球化；论坛主题：负责任的全球化；2002 主题：主题：911后世界政治、经济形势后世界政治、经济形势论坛网址：论坛网址：www.we-forum.org驱曾燕渭秋诈包审掐邑按旧迸卸唇锄站蚂积呀蔷催公激虱舰踞茨韧

64、犹乙坊世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202449Chapter 1: The Second Great Age of CapitalismMain PointsI.IntroductionII.The Triumph of Economic LiberalismIII.Economic GlobalizationIV.Technology,the Information Economy and ServicesV.The Global Shift of Economic PowerVI.The Demographic RevolutionVII.The Challenge of Globa

65、l RegionalismVIII.Managing the Global Economy希台酷渤瓮盐分幕狸摘妓叭蚕孙咱玉歉田努釜洞沥铣脏拙肉茂咐凹磅暗画世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202450Chapter 1: I. Introduction1. The two Great Ages of capitalism(1) Pax Britannica: the dominance of the British Empire, economically, politically and militarily, in the international system between 1815

66、 and 1914, when Britain provided such international public goods as the encouragement of free trade and the provision of a lender of last resort.(2) Pax Americana: the donimance of the US, both economically and politically, in the international system of the post-WWII period, when the US promoted th

67、e establishment of GATT and IMF.丽峨垫魏穗浴牌臃哎裕晕凄想粱氧急叙嘉闲帽烃毒舆迪燃鹅拭戴鞠傲晃领世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202451Chapter 1: I. Introduction2. The profound transformation of world economic and political system in the post-Cold War world(1)The collapse of the Soviet Union(2)A stagnant and yet rich Japan(3)The reunification of

68、Germany and its return as the dominant power in Europe (4)The rise of China and Pacific Asia(5)The technological revolution and information economy(6)The redistribution of economic power(7)The retreat of the state(8)The demographic revolution(9)The economic globalization面封城列奇槛椒溪竖收萄氖推导卯佣坡询蒙赖燕锅渤谦迢死羊滁哥

69、肘划扒世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202452Chapter 1: II. The Triumph of Economic Liberalism1. Unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar: which one is the most expected?(1) Bipolar system: security interests and alliance cohesion held the world economy together stability(2) Multipolar system: national interests first ethnic,

70、 political and economic conflictA. Shift in American policya. Military security economic securityb. Geo-politics geo-economicsc. Mutilateralism unilateralism, regionalism managed trade穴近累啥攀胎贺恳孝亲略棱获斟落浙曙滁役拴凰夏叮誊臼雍粕战溯苏缩物世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202453Chapter 1: II. The Triumph of Economic LiberalismB. Shift in

71、the priorities of Europe and Japana.Less willing to follow American leadershipb.Regionalism: EU and Pacific Asia2. The ramifications of the shifts in national priorities for the world economyClose cooperation weakened the health and stability of world economy threatened3. Reasons for the economic tu

72、rmoil after Cold War(1)Publics misconceptions and self-serving demands(2)Economists responsibility摹可那什枷饥微鸥到荆堰刀娱淮债磕他爷珊代毋支带胚瓷琅佩榜爷沛刺罕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202454Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization1. Definition(1)Globalization refers to a set of processes leading to the integration of economic activity in

73、 factor, intermediate, and final goods and services markets across geographical boundaries, and the increased salience of cross-border value chains in international economic flows.(2)Globalization refers to the growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through the increasing volume and

74、 variety of cross-border transactions in goods and services and of international capital flows, and also through the more rapid and widespread diffusion of technology.橱届赌闰啡含抬代观聪汀寅铡晃团呀灵殖如腻性釜卖惦辟南捐漏裁询抄惦世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202455Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization2. The evolution of globalization 虽然国内外多

75、数学者认为全球化并非新现象，而虽然国内外多数学者认为全球化并非新现象，而是一个历史过程，但对阶段的划分尚不一致。是一个历史过程，但对阶段的划分尚不一致。 屈束出轿茨瞬乡莽倚连涌蔗俭捣勇舌可南傅谁孩魁澈季雨蛔挞院饼鹊汐氰世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202456Table: Epochal shifts in globalization since 1820阶阶 段段产品市场一体化程度产品市场一体化程度 劳动力市场一体化程劳动力市场一体化程度度 资本市场一体化程资本市场一体化程度度 前工业化时期前工业化时期要素流动程度低；贸易为少数国家垄断并局限于奢侈品要素流动程度低；贸易为少数国家垄断并局

76、限于奢侈品第第一一次次全全球球化化高高潮潮（1820-1914） 产产品品价价格格差差距距削削减减81%。原原因因：72%来来自自运运输输成成本本下下降降，28%来自关税削减来自关税削减 各各国国外外来来移移民民比比重重上上升升。原原因因：运运输输成成本本下降下降 由完全分割向市场由完全分割向市场一体化推进，一体一体化推进，一体化程度达化程度达60% 全全球球化化进进程程倒倒退退期期（1914-1950） 产产品品价价格格差差距距扩扩大大一一倍倍，倒倒退退至至1870年年水水平平。原原因因：新新的贸易壁垒的贸易壁垒 各各国国外外来来移移民民比比重重下下降降。原原因因：限限制制性性的的移民政策移

77、民政策 倒退到完全分割状倒退到完全分割状态态 第第二二次次全全球球化化高高潮潮（1950至今）至今） 产品价格差距削减产品价格差距削减76%原因：原因：74%来自运输成本下来自运输成本下降，降，26%来自关税削减来自关税削减 各各国国外外来来移移民民比比重重上上升升。原原因因：运运输输成成本本下降下降完全分割向市场一完全分割向市场一体化推进，一体化体化推进，一体化程度达程度达60% 总体上（总体上（1820至至今）今） 产品价格差距削减产品价格差距削减92%原因：原因：82%来自运输成本下来自运输成本下降，降，18%来自政策效果来自政策效果 各各国国外外来来移移民民比比重重无无明明显显变变化化

78、。原原因因：政政策策的的限限制制抵抵消消了了运运输输成本的下降成本的下降 完全分割向市场一完全分割向市场一体化推进，一体化体化推进，一体化程度达程度达60% 威下哈逸薪荫怔去琼精拨茁姆露任疆鳞酣鸣搀蛰掀单缉菊牲屯肃捌选袍笨世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202457Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization3. Factors initiating globalizationTechnological changeSpread of market-based systems Progress of Domestic politics globalizatio

79、nInter-state rivalry 咒量艘栖臀啡蛔固阅谣衙窥罩博处骄人辽叁筐住购换渴赌嘲牺秘纪垃峦培世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202458Table: Globalization Chronology （I）发莉释蜘鹰臭腥澈转微邵丰屿耍趾瞳刃甥撕撼警裙记舀撞粥遍妥袖逐销蹿世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202459Table: Globalization Chronology （II）箭航犀清阎晌谤疚遮标鸡绸违迭蝗郎薄绽对或鹊烟岛求鞠员岳桓郧沛鬃寥世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202460Table: Globalization Chronology （III）兜窿驻狡讲订

80、港滔鹿褥亩你题伶霸印先击炎泳缎忆冻被摔轰踪赠随患蓉筷世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202461Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization4. The facets of globalization(1) Trade liberalizationA. Two tides of free tradea.Industrial revolution in 1760s free trade policy in UK since 1820 UK became a free-trade nation in 1860s the Netherlands,Belgium,et

81、c became free trade nations an integrated world market with free trade emerged in 1870 British economy went down free trade enthusiasm dissipated in late 19th century b. The enforcement of GATT 8 rounds of trade negotiation TBs and NTBs eliminated expansion of world trade 凋酗奠痒注憋淡兽汾凿职炮逐串呛疽谜瓷抡济虐风辙鲁戌振旗

82、厅疾医题戒世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202462表表 世界货物及服务贸易增长统计（十亿美元）世界货物及服务贸易增长统计（十亿美元）货物贸易货物贸易a服务贸易服务贸易b国际贸易国际贸易cb/c (%)19702836634918.9197579815695416.419801856353221815.919831508333184118.119882880625350517.8199440901080517020.9199549201170609019.2199651001200630019.0199852001300650020.0200264551570802519.62004888

83、021001098019.120051039324151280818.920061208327551483818.620071395032901724019.1啊轴扦拓脸掇衅尧泽搀帮众喉荔娥哑劈鸡祥涉狙巷沾痪集骗滴遣崩黎闰镭世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202463表表: 两次经济全球化浪潮两次经济全球化浪潮剧答踌巩箍男铂师奴啤烩害经笆掘聪巢虏呈寡郧宇知调柿剐记贿摩满响夏世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202464Chapter 1: III. Economic GlobalizationB. Reasons for trade expansiona. Elimination of tr

84、ade barriersb. Deregulation and privatizationc. Technological advances in communications and transportation梢局暗粉荚缝诅示况硷夹粥耶椿恕署淹瓷货焚瓶脾弱紫脑噪鞠慨凄舔歹越世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202465Appendix: About privatization Definition: transferring assets from the public sector to the private sector. Advantages of privatization Pr

85、oviding revenue for the government Cutting public spending Increasing competition advantages of nationalization Economies of scale Preventing monopoly Strategic reasons忘垛念秦对般斥给碴讫吱欠辅奉趁娄碉愿舟酿奇秧伺击蝴困殖歼亏蒙社渺世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202466Table: GATT Negotiating Rounds and Tariff Cut Negotiating RoundDateParticipan

86、ts Tariff Cut (%)Geneva19472321Annecy1949332Torquay1951383Geneva1956264Dillon Round60-61262Kennedy Round64-676235Tokyo Round 73-799933Uruguay Round86-9312534永盅朔拔弯湖助阐蹲萎瞅铝雏役肪绵栏祷胀鸦攀草蛊汾辱逃甸涪役铃颗磺世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202467Table: Uruguay Round Tariff Cut on Industrial Products by Selected Countries CountryAver

87、age Tariff Rate (%)Pre-Uruguay RoundPost-Uruguay RoundIndustrial countries6.03.6Australia20.112.2Canada9.04.8EU5.73.6Japan3.91.7U.S.5.43.5 Argentina38.230.9 Brazil40.727.0 India 71.432.4 Korea18.08.3关氢虚贬屯容项瘁细吧鳃跑鲍澜豹原缔儡形橡停线蹲袱蔫汁矿谢阐输惧瘦世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202468Table: US Tariff History: average tariff rates

88、Tariff Laws and DatesAverage Tariff Rate (%)Tariff Laws and DatesAverage Tariff Rate (%)MacKinley Law (1890/10/06)48.41930-193943.6Wilson Law (1894/08/28)41.31940-194924.1Dingley Law (1897/07/24)46.51950-195912.0Payne-Aldrich Law (1909/08/06/40.81960-196911.8Underwood Law (1913/10/04)27.01970-19797.

89、4Fordney-McCumber Law (1922/09/22)38.51980-19895.3Smoot-Hawley Law (1930/06/18)53.019955.4莆卯牢蛹炉套厄盟幽虾店秃椰丘穴摸井赤敞桑舆识兜幢么妖漳碾投患婴履世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202469Table: China Tariff HistoryDateAverage Rate DateAverage RateBefore 199243.2%2001/01/0115.61992/01/01 39.92002/01/0112.0End 199236.42003/01/0111.0End 199335

90、.92004/01/0110.41995.335.62005/01/019.91996/04/01 232006/01/019.91997/04/01 172007/01/019.81999/01/01 16.52008/01/019.8抒福戊卷烷客囱耻扒聚剐猖删振侠碉讣仆蔼类癣拱驻说缔幌损蛋纱刻倚扒世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202470Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization(2) Financial internationalizationRemoval of capital controlsCreation of financial instr

91、umentsTechnological advances in communication Financial internationalizationLarge trade volume close economic linkageBorrowed investment complexity and instability of Derivatives of international finance Financial crises 烧喉周撒纵隙乎百慑铜避睹镀徐贴锌邦娜误合迸摸蝉隅冯循象尽栗烧许甫世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202471Chapter 1: III. Economic

92、 Globalization(3) FDI and MNCs: production internationalizationA. Increase of MNCsB. Increase of FDI (see: textbook p.23 figure 1.2)C. High concentration of FDID. MNCs: the determinant of world economy control of trade control of technology control of FDI transfer Inequality of social and race-to-th

93、e-bottom economic benefits capital gains,labor loses environmental dumping宜顾举宴路侈蛋缓抹撒粹努卵膀广硕肥第仕控蜘视香曳让卞芳职垣嘴躯拈世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202472Figure: FDI Inflow 1980-2008沪瞅乎孽蔓辑枢烛悔畦郊嫡僳迹恕麓数哆艺蹦共覆押盯靡恒狗猖杂忿窍柑世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202473Table: Global MNCs and Their BranchesYearNumber of MNC (10thousand)Overseas subsidiaries

94、 and Branches (10 thousand)1970s1.0 approximate 4.0 approximate19831.3n.a.19923.72019944.0 approximate2519964.427.719986.050.0 +19996.370.0+20006.0 +80.0+20046.190.0+朋勉贬圈耍闸薄芥申候墅濒命陶乱住启遵拱个牺卑均吊喂疙宿醋沿甫驻缺世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202474Table: FDI区位格局区位格局 （十亿美圆，（十亿美圆，%）国家和国家和地区地区流入流入流出流出金额金额比重比重金额金额比重比重199820031998

95、20031998200319982003发达国发达国家家47336768666325709293发展中发展中国家国家1941722830533686中、东中、东欧欧2421442701全球全球691560100100687613100100冰怜吧奈坡尺镇旁鸯铣疾荐稳厕寨斟狂登命永武沽铺升编副骨茵捎控抉徘世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202475Table: Share of the Largest Recipients of FDI among Developing Countries,1985-2000 (%)EconomyAverage 83-85EconomyAverage 98-0

96、0Saudi Arabia20.4China19.2Mexico11.3Hong Kong16.0Brazil9.2Brazil14.4China7.0Argentina6.5Singapore6.9Mexico5.6Malaysia5.5Korea4.0Egypt4.7Singapore3.1Bermuda4.6Bermuda2.8HongKong2.3Chile2.7Argentina2.7Cayman Islands2.4Top 10 Total76.6Top 10 Total76.7烂酣铜搀运临整窘唯群甄命盎消羌瞩讹猿分棍壤弘指赃法谢购锣咏菜僵慧世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202

97、476Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization5. The negative side of globalization(1) Intensification of global competition Competition between hi-wage and low-wage economies Deindustrialization in advanced economies Unemployment and income inequality in advanced economies sentiment against developing c

98、ountries Protectionism and regionalism迷联悲闯厌哨免扮精舷冕术靖剪秒埔避既徐桑舟琳神凡痪扯茧奠右碗逊胎世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202477Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization(2) Productive overcapacity rising of NICs overcapacity in manufacturing oversupply/underconsumption industrial adjustment unemployment or lower payKrugmans view:Japanes

99、e and German anti-inflationary policies insufficient money supply oversupply/underconsumption船乞孔罩苗篷供貉铂遣汤父眯偶差蜂云裂痪香啃椭夯旗旱湾裳疥跃眶避倪世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202478Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization6. The controversy of the role of economic factors(1) The similarity of the two schools Both admit that economic i

100、nterest is the first priority in international affairs.(2) The differenceA. School of the market-oriented position: emphasis on market force and cooperation.a. In the 21st century free markets and economic forces will increasingly determine economic affairs.b. The world is moving toward a politicall

101、y borderless and highly interdependent global economy.c. American economic and political system has become the model for the world. 祈震社圭俭洗禽撞斟别乘称策赛睁淑皑浊戒缎坐黎铜泛急志绒片驮淆倒腥世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202479Chapter 1: III. Economic GlobalizationB. School of the revisionist position: emphasis on the state and economic c

102、onflicta. The world is characterized by intense economic conflict at both the domestic and international levels .b. The clash between communism and capitalism has been replaced by conflict among rival forms of capitalism and social system represented in regional economic blocs.弗费烧业且椰簿束美疏至德捏穗毡句洱裴辙辱煎通

103、鲜踩羽庙去麦语族咬黄世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202480Chapter 1: IV. Technology, the Information Economy, and Services1. Technological revolutions(1) The first technological revolution: mid-18th century in UK The age of formation of laissez faire capitalism steam formation of world market trade internationalization(2) T

104、he second technological revolution: late-19th century Germany The age of formation of monopolistic capitalism electricity formation of world economy capital internationalization懂支锡钻条炼颧屁谢冤嗽船倪溪署痈晾攒摸婶疫充确侯瑚重冻挖憋弄铬扼世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202481Chapter 1: IV. Technology, the Information Economy, and Services(3)

105、The third technological revolution: mid-20th century in US The age of production internationalization atomic power growth of world economy(4) The “fourth” technological revolution: since 1970s in US The age of information the globalization and integration of world economy2. The controversy over the

106、technological revolution based on computer(1) Observers positive view(2) Economists skeptic view(3) The real situation and workers negative view俺瞎儿穷散埂屡幕窥焰咏掣冉寝猎他么糖隆丝疆之咒颠脊谈采邹从署靳鲸世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202482Chapter 1: IV. Technology, the Information Economy, and Services3. The changes brought by the new tec

107、hnological revolution(1) Increased rate of technological innovationA.A flood of new scientific and technological developmentsB.Reduced cost of knowledge manipulationC.Technology became the most crucial factor in economic growth and international competition(2) Broad applicability of new technologies

108、胶母诗雅恍梨晋霍而讲咽鸳福击绢酌误嗅铬状量终肮蒋鸿巳炔刽臼陛绪彼世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202483Chapter 1: IV. Technology, the Information Economy, and Services(3) Shortened process and product life cycles Less time elapses between innovation, commercialization and diffusion greater internationalization of technologies new competitive stra

109、tegies:strategic alliances and technological alliances Strategic alliance:an agreement between companies that is of strategic importance to the competitive viability of one or both. 技术联盟：技术联盟： 企业间的一种技术合作协议，共同进行研发企业间的一种技术合作协议，共同进行研发和其他技术创新活动，这种和作至少对一方的产品市场和其他技术创新活动，这种和作至少对一方的产品市场地位产生影响。地位产生影响。模滞地斯斋窝昧

110、柄十寿抵巫慎奸伊佬谎炳惑斑呈眯铃溃咯诌荷贱浩训瑚镭世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202484Table: 全球战略联盟及其动因全球战略联盟及其动因 1980-89行业行业联盟联盟数数（个）（个）成本成本风险风险%缺乏缺乏资金资金%技术互技术互补补%缩短创缩短创新周期新周期%分摊分摊R&D%获取市获取市场场%控制准控制准入入%生物技术生物技术8471133531101315新材料新材料430133832113116信息技术信息技术166042333133811自动化自动化2054227222524航空国防航空国防22836134260138化学化学4107116131518消费电器消费电器5

111、82019190539食品饮料食品饮料421017100437电机电力电机电力141361311042311医疗技术医疗技术9504354022810其他其他66350962238总和总和418264312853211疙掇念帅自顿胃虐古啤裕爵嘱悔起疮醛坍羊联撮唁荡柞依灯呀罕禄藤脓默世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202485Chapter 1: IV. Technology, the Information Economy, and Services4. The impact of technological revolution of economic affairs(1) Neo-Lud

112、dites view: high speed of technological advance technological unemployment(2) Economists view:Technological progress shift from a manufacturing to a service economy industrial adjustment high economic efficiency corporate downsizing and reengineering more demand for skilled labor and less demand for

113、 unskilled labor high income for skilled labor and lower income for unskilled labor job insecurity, job export and trade deficit emotional controversy over the impact of globalization 烁耕鸡孰叠尼彻钓募胯跨跪阀汪彪堪濒斜氖汤辣殴攒隐锅听泡跟奥畏茧屠世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202486Chapter 1: V. The Global Shift in Economic Power1. Economic s

114、trategies in developing countries(1) Import substitutionA. Definition: an inward-looking strategy, in which industries are established largely to supply the domestic market and foreign trade is assigned negligible importanceB. Rationale: a. Most developing countries cant export manufactured gods bec

115、ause they cant compete. b. Infant industry argumentC. Measure: trade barrier, protecting domestic industries嚷食曼咖扦匠庚终告涩城扰笋动侍佰脸试总藕跑肯弧停康敝盾勾秃呢蟹楷世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202487Chapter 1: V. The Global Shift in Economic Power(2) Export-led growthA.Definition: an outward-looking strategy of encouraging the develop

116、ment of industries in which the country enjoys comparative advantage, with heavy reliance on foreign nations as purchasers of the increased production of exportable goods.B.Measures: less trade control, export promotion, export subsidies 颁微角怯访翘艾赤串嗡了渺炙秀耳陆够弥瑰她尚筷标汾娥眠蛮酥裹搀闰糠世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202488Table:

117、Classifying Developing Economies by Trade Orientation (World Bank Report 1987)Strongly OutwardModerately OutwardModerately Inward-OrientedStrongly Inward-OrientedHong KongBrazilCameroon, ColombiaArgentina, BoliviaSouth KoreaChileCosta Rica, Cote dIvoireBangladesh, BurundiSingaporeIsraelEl Salvador,

118、Guatemala Dominican Rep.TaiwanMalaysiaHonduras, IndonesiaEthiopia, GhanaThailandKenya, MexicoIndia, MadagascarTunisiaNicaragua, PakistanNigeria, PeruTurkeyPhilippines, SenegalSudan, TanzaniaUruguaySri Lanka, YugoslaviaZambia曰稿裳僚陵绪测伟撼啪秒鸭趋胶薯胯喘予仆综括羔撮谜隔惹涧潍馒典繁蛙世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202489Chapter 1: V. The Glo

119、bal Shift in Economic Power2. The most significant change in the international balance of economic power(1)The “Four Tiger”(2)China as a high-performing economy捆轩玄汝阁耘黔额灵查伏隶鹃架礁露矩沪衷偷伙诽赌趴尉蝗代辽社匹它蔓世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202490Table:Economic Indexes of NICs and China (1998)EconomiesPopulation(m.)Area (,000m2)GN

120、P (bn USD)Percapita GNP(USD)Growth Rate(%) (74-90)Growth Rate(%)(91-98)Brazil1668547767.64630(68)3.63.1Mexico961958368.13840(75)3.22.6Argentina362780290.38030(55)0.45.2Korea4699398.88600(51)8.56.3Hongkong71158.223660(21)5.3 (85-94)Singapore3195.530170(9)6.1 (85-94)Taiwan23.336296.5141885.8China12399

121、597923.6750(145)8.711.4类炳勋殷憋寐消誉过英芝雌雕链邹慕慷蔽接螺氯炕篓蛇抑袖成懊栖妖溯永世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202491表：全球表：全球GDP前前10位排名位排名位次位次1234567891001年排年排序序美国美国日日本本德国德国英国英国法国法国中国中国意大意大利利加拿加拿大大墨西墨西哥哥西班西班牙牙GDP(bnUSD)10.24.21.91.41.31.21.10.70.60.606年排年排序序美国美国日日本本德国德国中国中国英国英国法国法国意大意大利利加拿加拿大大西班西班牙牙巴西巴西GDP (bnUSD)13.24.32.92.72.32.21.81.

122、31.21.1恕律殊掏详霖崩萄育泡涪斜洗献图精崇赔扑钟缀倦雪凿溃庞移哆讣伤原托世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202492表：各文明在世界军事人员总数中的比重表：各文明在世界军事人员总数中的比重 (单位：万，单位：万， %）年份年份世界世界总数总数西方西方文明文明非洲非洲文明文明中华中华文明文明印度印度文明文明伊斯伊斯兰文兰文明明日本日本文明文明拉美拉美文明文明东正东正教文教文明明其他其他1900 1008.643.71.610.00.416.71.89.416.60.11920 864.548.53.817.40.43.62.910.212.80.51970 2399.126.82.124

123、.76.610.40.34.025.12.31991 2579.721.13.425.74.820.01.06.314.33.5疾衷郧抒姆埔暑乍歌角屿跟膏遭宋猪钮只椽吞元格彝替涕哮煌裂症礁铭埃世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202493Chapter 1: V. The Global Shift in Economic Power3. The impact of the economic rise of East Asia on the West(1)Western business and political leaders view(2)View of opponents of glob

124、alization Reasons for fears:A.The diffusion of industry from industrialized to industrializing economies is very rapid.B.Technological advances and MNCs facilitate the transfer of technologyC. Billions of low-wage worker suddenly entered the world labor pool.(3) Economists View绘鬃逸肢棒秒锹虫直昨蹋摩人缉蜗蛀巢骗锚应羞郧

125、宗在兆痪蜘己给捌津揭世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202494Chapter 1: V. The Global Shift in Economic Power4. The fifth redistribution of the international balance of economic power and competitiveness(1)Great Britain(2)Germany (3)U.S.(4)Japan(5)Pacific Asia? 杂倘销候圾搐传锄陪冻皋住医哉惩旺脚檬窒妖既挨缀丢靴役坍己赔葡便晤世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202495Chapter 1:

126、VI. The Demographic Revolution1.The history of world population growth2.The characteristics of global demographic shift(1)Industrialized countries: decrease in population growth and aging(2)Developing countries: rapid demographic expansion蹿末翻菲金盔宇徘托墅摊破砰乳军赌绿额撕条沫炊耍于广委萍塌鲍湃徘泵世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202496表：表： 世

127、界人口统计世界人口统计 （亿）（亿）年份年份1m BC0.1m BC500BC公元公元元年元年1000165017501800人口人口约约2万万约约3百万百万12.33.457.289.06平均增平均增长率长率 00-16501650- 1750 1750- 18000.6- 334.4年份年份1850190019301950 1987199520002025人口人口11.71620.7 24.9505862.568平均增平均增长率长率 1800-19001900-19301950-876818.9父妒窗走叫办距灾强汽奏洒卒驭夕录檀剑静乱宗韵糖谭权亚樊菩啥旅郭院世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30

128、/202497表：中国人口统计表：中国人口统计年份年份公元公元2年年740139315781754人口人口（亿）（亿）0.550.480.60.62.0年份年份184919281949198219952001人口人口（亿）（亿）4.14.75.410.312.312.9躇枪销稚轰炼龟祈虾骗峙躇墓窑旦鸽亥替校稻作懈唯临距陕访唁衍脱厨急世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202498发达国家人口变动发达国家人口变动n美国：1915年：1亿；1967年：2亿；2006年：3亿n日本和欧盟： 19672006年：人口减少1500万运惟葱癸鼠孪择瘩滚闸蛾矮爷冗但射挣桂树羡乖谗渐蛛膘校梳镰罗耕幼淘世界经济学

129、本世界经济学本7/30/202499Chapter 1: VI. The Demographic Revolution3. The challenge of population growth(1) Political instabilityPopulation growth degradation of living standard development of military power developed countries assistanceconquer the world market LDCs industrialization wars/terrorism economi

130、c and political threat to the developed countries矾啼奢哎影译甥白奠胎全共车愿绽折沙扬巧麓表驮谎勺她椒揍辅匝汕顽丛世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024100Chapter 1: VI. The Demographic Revolution(2) The shift in the global distribution of wealth and powerPopulation growth urbanization increase of TFP economic growth in LDCs population decline agin

131、g of population increase in social burden and decrease in TFP economic recession in developed countriesRedistribution of wealth and economic power便嘲紧钙窑卓鞋纷编裸攻粗娠凯桐氦誊垄颊愉由暖兜诵彬贾么饼纫男莽赎世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024101Chapter 1: VII. The Challenge of Economic Regionalism1. The difference between New regionalism and

132、 the earlier regional movement(1)Broader coverage(2)Deeper extent2. From regionalism to New Regionalism(1)The European regionalism and GATT negotiationsA.The establishment of EEC Dillon RoundB.The European CAP Kennedy RoundC.The first expansion of EEC Tokyo Round矽劝时合湘鸯涅郎掉打毋叛峭离逼疙舞康怯疡阮乡糠棉川沮株唉开瞥瓮屡世界经济学

133、本世界经济学本7/30/2024102Chapter 1: VII. The Challenge of Economic Regionalism(2) The New RegionalismA.The Single European Act Uruguay RoundB.Regionalism in North AmericaC.Regionalism in South AmericaD.Regionalism in Asian Pacific(3) The motivation for regionalism in different regionsA.EECB.NAFTAC.Pacific

134、 Asia蘑辩撇奄备葫噪得卒竖摆妖涂邢州抄厩姑稿带洪其魔蒂执涪舷决顶岸纠善世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024103Chapter 1: VII. The Challenge of Economic Regionalism3. The tension between globalization and regionalization(1) Building blocksA. Greater commonality of interests + simpler negotiating process deeper integrationB. Enlargement of FTA regio

135、nal trade area global trade areaC. Regional trade liberalization partial adjustment of import-competing industries less protectionism deeper trade liberalization more adjustment less protectionism 懂菩畦逗涉谈杯锣范蔫璃襟笨矾腆器蛋拍妮贝冰睛汐窑抢碑畜知锈路啤崎世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024104Chapter 1: VII. The Challenge of Economic Regio

136、nalism(2) Stumbling blocksA.Discrimination vs non-discriminationB.RTA expansion bargaining power grows higher trade barriersc. Global market opening is only modest global negotiation is time consuming the member of RTA may not interested in global liberalization(3) Globalism and regionalism will pro

137、ve complementary逢打签队肪绦毯厨炉悄讶锤杆旗缝丧抠英住挛缎窒端坑扔锨帘甄黍尸琶九世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024105Chapter 1: VIII. Managing the Global Economy1. The difficulty in global economic management(1) The reasons for global economic instabilityFast economic and technological advances integration of the world economy markets become t

138、he ruling international authority economic integration outpaced political integration the capacity to manage the economic and technological forces lags global economic turmoil蔬传喀账拴缚纶崇玻份岸却虱精嚼朱嫡行交嫡强汤众互霄残朵臼滨凉田绰世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024106Chapter 1: VIII. Managing the Global Economy(2) The reasons for the d

139、ifficulty in managing global economyA.The collapse of Bretton Woods System;B.Regionalism began to fragment the world economy;C.The anti-Soviet alliance atrophied and thus US leadership waned;D.Citizens protectionist sentiment rose.灯扶献狸榆测幕功医忌核缮纺率阳诣该钢撩捍没捎枢砧势狼泥赤午糖袋正世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024107Chapter 1: VI

140、II. Managing the Global Economy2. Two eras of effective governance of the world economy(1) First era: Pax BritannicaA.Trade liberalizationB.Gold standardC.British capital exports(2) Second era: Pax AmericanaA.GATT and trade liberalizationB.Bretton Woods System and USD standard霞卯赤认鲍正血窝菱鲜檬阂灰嗅绅逞捷文冯她析九酮

141、疫撞稚沸美丙艺淫也世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024108Chapter 1: VIII. Managing the Global Economy(3) 1970s and beyond: global governance deteriorated A.1970s: collapse of BWSB.1980s: multi-lateralism multi-track and new protectionismC.1990s: geo-economics and strategic trade policiesD.2000s: protectionism and unilatera

142、lismE.1980s - 1990s: European regionalism叭刹脚睫半首豺喜十耸愚硷度降宅殿膊揪拎劫揖狼仰罕多愉骨济错摈搏腆世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024109Chapter 1: VIII. Managing the Global Economy3. The purpose of global economic governance(1)During the Cold War: to strengthen the economies and solidify the political unity of the anti-Soviet alliance(2)

143、Post-Cold War: the principles of economics and market署聂梦威歇侵滚锥栋补骨寝誉杠汕喷怯威磕酸蒸盈焰党须昔蔡筛候跋华厩世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024110Chapter 1: VIII. Managing the Global Economy(3) The controversy over the principle of economics and marketA. Opponents view In developed countries: trade and FDI are not the route to economic

144、 prosperity for workers and others disadvantaged by globalization. In LDCs and NICs: Free trade,financial movement and FDI are policies of the strong. B. Economists view: serious differences beyond the issue of tradeC. Conclusion: see textbook p.50, 1st para. last sentence 蓬肘丁殃妹悸纳挟摇旭赊谁孕脱静里盼取问表正泪祷皖豺珊

145、恍昔碉限嚎澜世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024111Chapter 2: The Cold War International EconomyKey Words and Phrases1. International economic institution 2. World Bank(IBRD) 3. IMF 4. Stagflation 5. Command economy 6. Institutional environment 7. Inflationary economic policy 8. Social welfare 9. Oil crisis 10. Economic

146、 efficiency 11. Central bank 12. Anti-inflation policy 13. Investment rate 14. Terms of trade 15. Binding rules 16. Current account 17. Fixed/pegged exchange rate 18. OECD 19. Devaluation 20. Reserve currency 21. Transaction currency 22. Balance of payments 23. Seigniorage 24. SDRs 25. Reserve asset

147、s 26. Government securities 27. Disequilibrium 28. Non-discrimination 29. Unconditional reciprocity 30. transparency治肖秧可帧赃湖鬃析孪飘牛蹄吟誓炮篇瓦箩锥么技签僧驯用吟皖针棘账县世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024112About OECD The Convention was signed in Paris on Dec. 14,1960 and came into force on Sept 30, 1961. The 20 original member count

148、ries are: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the UK, the US. The following 9 members joined subsequently: Japan (64),Finland(69), Australia(71), New Zealand(73), Mexico

149、(94), Czech(95), Hungary(96), Poland (96), and Korea (96).能装岔伴倒谍丘肥押侍埋若羹硬卉功售同锤旁蜀锅柜叠良遂猴洼暴支灶眯世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024113Chapter 2: The Cold War International Economy Key Words and Phrases31. Trade barrier 32. Multilateral negotiation 33. Import quota 34. General reciprocity 35. Specific reciprocity 36. No

150、ntariff barrier 37. codes of conduct 38. Subsidy 39. Dumping 40. Public/government procurement 41. Dispute settlement mechanism 41. Distribution issue between capital and labor 42. Economic friction 43. Policy coordination 44. Boycott 45. OPEC 46. Deflation 47. Purchasing power 48. Currency revaluat

151、ion 49. Appreciation 50. EMS 51. ERM 52. Eurodollar market 53. International financial market 54. Capital control 55. Exchange rate volatility 56. Equilibrium exchange rate 57. Corporate takeover 58. Corporate ownership 59. Merger 60. Acquisition 61. Alliance 62. keiretsu录疮豪定缘傲迅鳞蹭惩帽蛙决锑倔护龄鸭姿倚办螺云纵锯倍窘郴

152、磐忻任蹋世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024114Chapter 2: The Cold War International Economy Key Words and Phrases63. International policy coordination 64. G-7 summit 65. Reflation 66. Energy conservation 67. European Coal and Steel Community 68. European Commission 69. European Parliament 70. European Court of Justic

153、e 71. Common Agricultural Policy 72. Local content rule 73. Abuse of antidumping 74. VERs 75. Multi-Fiber Arrangement 76. USTR 77. Interindustry trade 78. Intraindustry trade 79. Monetarism 80. Quantity theory of money 81. Natural rate of unemployment渣袁廉韶炎骡酞铁预坚学尸稍窝搜釉成铁民旱菜侩雅剖勿林叮否茧皿揩岳世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/

154、2024115Chapter 2: The Cold War International Economy Main PointsI. IntroductionII. Post-WWII Economic AchievementsIII. Foundations of Postwar Economic SuccessIV. Bretton Woods SystemV. Bretton Woods System UnderminedVI. Decline of the Bretton Woods System报见处街同县揉事音威丈巷营矗凰绅惧辕疟悠肢伯杯傲累福诚瀑晃病志患世界经济学本世界经济学本7

155、/30/2024116Chapter 2: I. Introduction1. Two systems of world economy during the Cold War2. The political foundation of the Western alliance琐然胯忙烯赡蓑环准物部咖跪舌灸样钮殆匣猖灸惜款妒母渊鲸郝庞惭措似世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024117 Table: economic systemsCONTROLOWNERSHIPPrivateMixedPublicMarketABCMixedDEFCommandGHI漓修督吞让近各狼铃痊腕石尾属团覆窿三泥稗

156、碰希敛卵劳夕是辉缔狱绅偷世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024118Chapter 2: II. Post-WWII Economic Achievements1. The recovery: 1945- 19522. The rapid growth: 1953- 19723. The stagflation: 1973- 19824. The adjustment and readjustment: 1980s5. Globalization and financial crisis横演土骡洪骡啪是檀东络翘翔栏褂幼伺秀紫吮洗炎戎训逸絮勺招衬隐沾裸世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202

157、4119Table: GNP Growth of Major Western Countries(1938-50)193819481950Belgium100115124Denmark100118135France100110121West Germany1004564Italy10092104Netherlands100114127Norway100122131Sweden100133148Switzerland100125131U.K.100106114U.S.100165179芋碍柠帘宁脊闸训圆控妄摘录融殊关瞳随柒迢杠枯哼签泡叉洋遵征舜巾念世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024120

158、Table: GNP Growth of Major Western Countries(1953-72) (%)1953- 19621963-1972Belgium3.64.9Denmark4.14.7France5.15.5West Germany6.84.6Italy5.84.7Netherlands4.55.4Norway3.64.3Sweden4.63.7Switzerland5.24.1U.K.2.72.8U.S.2.84.0Japan8.710.4湾捻缉识锰咯墙央桃常认误店熊靶破凑佑堕问嘴好敏架臭妙拖犯踪嗽唬耕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024121表：世界经济衰退（表：

159、世界经济衰退（57-58）国别国别危机前危机前最高点最高点危机时危机时最低点最低点生产下生产下降幅度降幅度下降月下降月数数失业率失业率美国美国1957.41958.413.5%137.5日本日本1957.61958.610.413英国英国1957.10 1958.10 3.7132.1法国法国1958.31959.25.011联邦德国联邦德国1958.21958.51.446.3意大利意大利1957.10 1958.83.48党毡它登全戌牙英润乳敢草漆兹捆罕欧焉概赴侨遣遗弄葵挡缓摆祷三走爸世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024122Table: GNP Growth and CPI of

160、Major Western Countries(1953-72) (%)GNP 65-73GNP 74-83CPI 51-73CPI 74-81Belgium5.21.8Denmark3.91.8France5.52.55.011.4West Germany4.62.12.74.9Italy5.22.23.915.9Netherlands5.51.5Norway4.03.7Sweden3.61.3Switzerland4.20.73.04.3U.K.2.81.14.315.4U.S.3.22.32.79.4Japan9.84.35.29.1渣证兰声诬遍古扛卤女版受据埔车耳山卵曰轨涸勃氯柏荷倡莽

161、职祭疏瞳矣世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024123Table: Unemployment Rate in Major Western Countries (6082) (%)196019651970197519801982U.S.6.55.25.59.37.69.7Japan1.52.51.82.72.82.4West Germany1.30.70.74.93.97.5France1.01.01.64.77.8n.a.U.K.1.61.42.74.16.912.0Italy6.45.76.57.510.39.1猫跌择讲甄犹收幅甥哼丹伦郊肛韧伯擞让哗似呆舵肺蔫靛佃巡渴仍芹舒仆世界经济学本

162、世界经济学本7/30/2024124表：世界经济衰退表：世界经济衰退 （74-75）国别国别危机前危机前最高点最高点危机时危机时最低点最低点生产下生产下降幅度降幅度下降月数下降月数美国美国1973.12 1975.415.3%18日本日本1973.11975.820.012英国英国1973.10 1975.811.022法国法国1974.71975.516.39联邦德国联邦德国1974.51975.711.414意大利意大利1974.51975.822.415演肛氖卸松冯阵伪吊彩渊一傅槛未敷溃径氟曲恩尿驳矢乃雪芍疏西炯刁绿世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024125表：世界经济衰退表：世界

163、经济衰退 （79-82）国别国别危机前危机前最高点最高点危机时危机时最低点最低点生产下生产下降幅度降幅度下降月下降月数数失业率失业率美国美国1979.41982.1211.8%4410.8日本日本1980.31983.14.1352.5英国英国1979.71983.114.84312.5法国法国1980.31983.17.4358.2联邦德国联邦德国1980.51983.112.2338.5意大利意大利1980.51983.122.03310.5咕况旁妆极箕啤羹纽揽惊桂控潞墙泻楼辱谚帖逻嫌晦疯棠艇颅钞吃砒充取世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024126Table: Economic Gro

164、wth Rate of Major Western Countries(1982-98) (%)82-87Average83-90 Average91-98 AverageJapan4.04.61.5U.S2.83.23.0Germany1.73.01.8France1.22.71.7U.K.3.33.11.7Italy2.22.91.7随维枕捎惑聘益礼鲜留浇夹侗午磨兔尖采棠欣池名森企靛训会的梁卒蝉狈世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024127Chapter 2: III. Foundation of Postwar Economic Success1. Economic factors(

165、1)Accumulated demand(2)Unexploited technologies and productive techniques(3)Large supplies of excess labor (4)Favorable terms of trade in primary commodities虎乓克蛾剿意尖其楞拼奇锌瘴思闺隅碴购缔竟跟停黄心组哪镀猎复泅悟朴世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024128表：技术进步对经济增长的贡献表：技术进步对经济增长的贡献国家国家时间时间经济增长（经济增长（%） 技术进步因素技术进步因素（%）美国美国47-733.851.1日本日本52-

166、739.53.9英国英国55-733.551.8意大利意大利50-735.43法国法国50-735.42.95偏捎禄晴郊鬃瓣痹式记幌沁结谗程昧砍卤魏遭硅彬李派钉雇漂骇柠烽高鼠世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024129图：国际油价变动趋势图：国际油价变动趋势($ per barrel)黔隙来竟审惋酸桔挞唇厕颂虎耶窟遗邑翔卑诌毕括善郑佐向尘棍量掌酱引世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024130Chapter 2: III. Foundation of Postwar Economic Success2. Political factors(1) Economic and politica

167、l leadership by the USA.The initiation of BWS and GATTB.Marshall planC.Encouraging West Europe to pursue economic integration(2) Domestic full employment policiesFree trade winners and losers full employment and social insurance Keynesian expansionary fiscal policy + government planning休胳襟吓抠费落貉弟违涪戏漳

168、伸朝谜嘲茶孺郴厚滁昼褥锑蓉盂孰尹愈过级世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024131Chapter 2: III. Foundation of Postwar Economic SuccessA. Different capitalist modela.American system of market-oriented capitalismb.German system of social market/ social welfare capitalismc.Japanese system of administratively-guided capitalismd.French syst

169、em of indicative planning capitalism 篡阑市云盼狭侦槐勿称鹏释霉盂耶埠篷牙嚼党蔚睬丫姚蒜纺遇潭助锨燃排世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024132Chapter 2: III. Foundation of Postwar Economic SuccessB. Conditions for the domestic policy consensusClosed market national policy autonomyOpen market+free trade+capital flows failure of national policy Tens

170、ion between national policy autonomy and the commitment to an open world economyRapid economic growth domestic consensus if then Growth slackens new distributional conflict铭铬窝锈卓憋巨翔茬寝官悟毒姚呆赁需施原泅醒辩洛管私沾誊濒仿烫设谦世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024133Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods System1. Fundamental principles of post-war

171、 economy and BWS(1) Trade liberalization via multilateral negotiations incorporating the principle of nondiscrimination(2) Free current account transactions and controls on capital movement(3) Fixed exchange rate烈楔柱焉条山迅杀匡园粥寇第九配翘诉谆碾宠议数浩夸稼瓣灸羚蛋樟扑誉世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024134Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods Sys

172、tem2. The history of international monetary system(1) The gold standard: 1874- 1914(2) The interwar years: 1918- 1939A.WWI:1914-1918B.The German hyperinflationC.The return to gold:1925-1930D.The Great Depression: 1929-1933E.WWII: 19391943(3) The BWS: 1944 1970s圭啤然妇到羡桐项割煽假备莲傀祟洼研首蛮惰俏悦宇棵遗围帜罐炭菩哟冉世界经济学本世

173、界经济学本7/30/2024135Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods System3. International monetary system of fixed rate(1) Three ways to stabilize a monetary system(2) Principles of the system(3) Hegemony of the dollar country As currencyGold USD country Bs currency country Ns currency USD as the core of the system USD

174、as the international currency seigniorage 急缺毫寿桶疾扒炬皋厨天辰付读溢非余湿系蔓杖贝补湾胁调菌谎尘郑肪妄世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024136Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods System(4) Triffin Dilemma: confidence problemTo facilitate world economic and trade growth increasing supply of the dollar other countries holdings of dollar exceed US gold

175、reserve confidence problem: other countries unwillingness to accumulate more dollars and cashing in the dollars collapse of the system遵豢秃筑番缀昔果檬凄裙冰慨疤喝宪甩赴秩仔腑头帧尾楚沛围句衣遮剐烷世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024137表表: 美元输出和美国黄金储备美元输出和美国黄金储备(1962-72)亿亿美圆美圆黄金储备黄金储备美圆输出美圆输出美圆悬突额美圆悬突额1962160115.3 +45.31963156.0131.6+24.4196415

176、4.7160.8-6.11965140.7172.7-32.01966132.4209.6-77.21967120.7233.2-112.51968108.9264.5-155.61969118.6376.6-258.01970110.7312.7-202.01971102.1269.1-167.0197296.6344.3-247.7铰柔失哀垄镣烹茁绢抗鹰亿讼假妹讳利再括摹姿荤弱阀空谷赐踊摸装纹签世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024138Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods System(5) Confidence creation: SDRsA. Increase

177、 in the gold priceGold price rise dollar depreciationGlobal inflationDecrease in the value of governments dollar reserve expectation of further rise of gold priceB. Triffins proposal: IMF issuing its own currency(6) The political nature of the solution to the USD confidence problem湾匙幽旨寄浩犀诅挤个凋萨槽慈沉关硬棒

178、汹贰曲寸肝拿壮乙粪烛串墓赫耕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024139表：表： SDR分配情况分配情况 (亿亿SDR)第一期第一期93.148第二期第二期121.182合计合计214.33其中：美国其中：美国48.99 英国英国19.13 德国德国12.11 法国法国10.80 日本日本8.92 中国中国2.37其中：发达国家其中：发达国家145.95 发展中国家发展中国家68.38掂呢椽帚驳讲务妥存荔缅来汞梧戴亭彤纫主乎汞曼鹃垂励涤悼闷航菌浇犬世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024140表：表： SDR权重及其变化权重及其变化1981-19851986-19901991-19951

179、996-2000USD42424039DM19192121Yen13151718FFr13121111GBP13121111咒销蛛抵茫扬导脱睬皋伶蝇粘始宁号击牲境愚尉剑怯丢际钟妄痰堰拌答蚕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024141Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods System4. Trade regime(1) The history of GATT(2) Limited authority of GATTA.A negotiating forum rather than a true international organizationB.Lacking an

180、adequate dispute-settlement mechanismC.Limited coverage of manufactured goods(3) Major principles of GATTA. Principle of nondiscriminationa.The MFN principleb. The NT principle眉鳞钩瘸乱衫荷姨残贡纬郧实哼瓶气凭忙嘉暗践糙水碉迈宇采炯郡郑柱僧世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024142Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods SystemB. Principle of fair settlement o

181、f disputesC. Principle of tariffs as means of protection and tariff reductionD. Principle of transparencyE. Principle of fair trade F. Principle of reciprocityG. Principle of preferential treatment of developing countries翁诺设刁耪垣鲤徘弊拽辨示飞点翻碰吼含谤略花氨弛旋簇淘尹垄械按仁似世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024143Chapter 2: IV. Bretton

182、Woods SystemNegotiating RoundDateParticipants Tariff Cut (%)Geneva19472321Annecy1949332Torquay1951383Geneva1956264Dillon Round60-61262Kennedy Round64-676235Tokyo Round 73-799933Uruguay Round86-9312534(4) Negotiating rounds and achievements剥颜侨扩凳消臀关犬琴俐奔扛缄辗振口订胃棱奋郎废豢浊峭舀注赵犊窜遏世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024144Annex

183、: Characteristics of the negotiating rounds First 5 rounds: product-by-product format; bilateral negotiation Kennedy round: cross-the-board format; multilateral negotiation; TBs NTBs Tokyo round: 6 codes of conduct,but plurilateral Uruguay round: bring Tokyo round arrangement back to GATT; extend to

184、 GATS, TRIMS, TRIPS 幽摆邹样夺彦脾渴撤眷址詹惕哉垃亥征血腾绳慢保暇急只科筷哆令臃匣钮世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024145Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods System5. Limitations of the system(1) Inherent limitationsA.Agriculture excludedB.Services, FDI, IP not included(2) New developmentsA.US protectionist sentimentB.Relative economic decline of the

185、USC.Increasing number and heterogeneity of the participating economies镍片江忻腕篱芹呆铸舷伤准犬荡畅窃乱怨毡醉榷妄实量录粳堰功展牟鬃惠世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024146表：表：GATT/WTO中的发展中国家中的发展中国家时间时间 GATT/WTO成成员总数员总数发展中成员发展中成员数量数量发展中成员发展中成员比重比重1947231043%1973825668%1986.9.15987273%1995.1.11209277%2007.1.1115111777%览没息质炳渗盛结户垛晤贯球煤行锐起啃禽云博捏味安助恶证

186、妥错索尼捎世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024147Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods SystemD. Increasing openness of domestic economiesIncreasing openness increasing interdependence other countries domestic regulation affects a countrys export and FDI reduction in domestic policy autonomy + economic friction protectionismE. T

187、he development of economic perceptionsa.Trade and finance: separated interrelatedb.Comparative advantage: static dynamic Factor endowment: natural cultivated惑讥田蛛左尤挞善填坞吞天获歼薯隐诈岁耘融街调晤进全冒倚灶断勿幕当世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024148Chapter 2: IV. Bretton Woods System(3) The reasons for BWS Success in the 50s and 60sA.

188、The distribution issue between capital and labor successfully settledB.The issue of national autonomy did not ariseC.International regimes functioned effectively蝉蜜捡镁樊掳缄碧钠苍姐瞪夫惹砷偿聋殷藉辱杀肘辩呐录浆棺崖违了恭巳世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024149Chapter 2: V. BWS Undermined1. Great stagflation(1) Expansion of fiscal deficit(2)

189、Increasing supply of money(3) Oil crisis of 1973Oil price rise deflationary effect absorbing purchasing power from other goods to oil less consumption of other goods less productionOil price rise inflationary effect oil as a basic production input production cost rise consumer price rise less consum

190、ption stagnation 睬搪园店霞寨褪可径掷咙序葱椿化恼迷绍碑陆对进赦染盛场戳拽邱骨别密世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024150表：主要资本主义国家财政收支1950196019701976US(bn USD)-3.1+0.3-2.8-66.5Japan(bn yen)-141+51.4-319-3290W. Germany (bnDM)-1-2-0.5-30.2France (bn Fr)-5.7-4.1+3.7-25.9UK (bn STG)+0.4-0.3+0.7-5.2Italy (bn lira)-45-382-3226-14685厦什乡康无肤审溉屿然残怜浦北豫壕测痘

191、鄙啮若固订龄身姆傅腔招傻痰煎世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024151表：主要国家货币供应年均增长率（%）51-60 61-7076-75US2.04.75.8Japan12.517.117.5W. Germany10.88.09.4France11.89.412.0UK2.23.812.6Italy11.315.515.5礼漾网刻汇时狐资悼弄拧仇打居薪钙茄步何走捆盅魄苞寞撑顺放牺疡丘数世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024152Figure: Oil Price Movement暮晴葬高筋颂弊烩移陛疙棠歼藕森醋魁盎泄鳖杖柴腻讲水安孝吾拼粮爹安世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/202

192、4153Chapter 2: V. BWS Undermined(4) Slowdown in productivity growth战后初期：战后初期：accumulated demand huge investment technological revolution high productivity 20年后：年后：huge investment supply surplus investment declinelapse of the momentum of technological revolution productivity slowdown decreased growth

193、 of overall economy酞钵啤迂敬遂务邑悸葡爹闻箍挖殃省框度驶肉呵汹贱糟攫噪疽查结迅还巫世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024154表：表： 主要国家生产率增长状况主要国家生产率增长状况(%)50-67 68-7374-77Japan7.49.23.5W. Germany5.04.83.5Italy5.35.01.0France4.74.53.1Canada2.52.80.8UK2.23.21.2US2.41.10.6裴栗松榨腕稿串埠溃糊音沈信滁撩馈煞耻牛镑泽蔽伎蚀戎迅瓣梯灿尘菌扰世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024155Chapter 2: V. BWS Underm

194、ined2. End of fixed exchange ratesThe establishment of BWS in 1944USD pegged to gold,other currencies pegged to USD; USD served as international liquidityTriffin dilemmaThe supply of USD should increase to meet the demand of the world economic growth,but the increasing supply will devaluate the USDI

195、nnate crisis of USDThe convertibility crisis confidence crisisThe first USD crisis (1960) and its remedyUSD surplus exchange USD for gold and DM. Swap Agreement,Gold Pool, General Agreement to Borrow The second crisis (1968) and its remedyTwo-tier Gold Price System, SDRs碌丑彩湍傲昌询葡万掘陌榜派恰轴汽恨癌归挡淹罐湾絮渍窍擎医付

196、桔忆览世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024156Chapter 2: V. BWS Undermined2. End of fixed exchange ratesThe 3rd crisis (1971) and its remedyStop redeeming USD for gold; impose a 10% surcharge on imports;Smithonian AgreementThe 4th crisis The end of Smithonian Agreement and the BWSJamaica ConferenceJamaica Agreement ef

197、fective from 1978.4.1A nonsystem of flexible rates烯坛低胡瘫饱章惦舌泵揣疽箱印裂棘宾臆摆涡桔稳填狂丛妆甩镐滩狼枪懦世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024157Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS 1. Financial revolution(1) Fixed rate or flexible rate?A.Fixed rate supporters viewB.Flexible rate supporters view(2) Financial revolutionA.Eurodollar market and ov

198、erseas expansion of US banksB.Deregulation of domestic financial systemC.Modern communicationsD.New financial techniques and instrumentsE.Petrodollar阴阿孟希匝蔽贱宣剑芋沫笼睡灶仿鸳持祈新口吸槐辨黎渴痴巨虽垄娇躯杏世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024158Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS(3) The consequence of the financial market integrationA. Reductio

199、n of monetary policy autonomy contractionary monetary policy raising interest rate inflow of foreign fund increase of money supply counteracting the policyB. International financial flow becoming a determinant of exchange rateC. Increase of corporate takeover activitiesD. Increase in international i

200、nterdependence Trade and financial markets integration international interdependence full-employment policies undermined protectionism isolated spheres interconnected increasing difficulty in managing global economy 躯垮傀迭始丛夜柱童羚幻淌羽届哎膘舵僻踞灸华鸳怒掖财侨魔憾郭言柿仲世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024159表：表： 九十年代末重大并购事件九十年代末重大并购事件并

201、购双方并购双方资本总额资本总额（亿美圆）（亿美圆）年份年份行业行业美国在线美国在线/时代华纳时代华纳18402000媒体媒体世界电信世界电信/斯普林特斯普林特12901999电信电信Exxon/Mobil8101999石油石油花旗花旗/旅行者旅行者7251998银行银行西南贝尔西南贝尔/美国科技美国科技6261998电信电信美国国民美国国民/美洲银行美洲银行6161998银行银行沃达丰沃达丰/空中联系通信空中联系通信6031998电信电信英国石油英国石油/阿莫科阿莫科4801998石油石油Chrysler/Daimler Benz4001998汽车汽车Telecommunications/AT

202、&T4801998电信电信航揩唆铅夕卤螺澡赚哇沦花昧亚杨铁到卸顽谋杏商权腺暴埔壤缔熬攘脖耕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024160Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS2. International policy coordination(1) Definition: a process whereby individual countries change their economic policies in a mutually beneficial manner.(2) Two types of IPCA.Coordination under the int

203、ernational/regional institutionsB.Formal coordination of economic policies among major economic powersa.G7 overall agendab.Some major coordinations叫悲堰倍戎绪诸虑贫剧撼卷动溉当摧坚传臂文部预诺顺汛巷刑谁兜总纶瓷世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024161Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS3. Movement toward European regionalism(1) The ups and downs of Euro

204、pe in the 20th centuryDominant power surpassed by US rise through integration EuropessimismEconomic and political unification(2) The reasons for the economic growth after WWIIA.Technological and productivity catch-upB.Transformation into urbanized mass consumer societiesC.Expansionary economic polic

205、iesD.Shift of surplus labor from rural to urban sectorsE.Marshall Plan and US investment掳然搪均漫所痪基隆器阑疡坐诸瑟运竿敲惹孟扬卷午扬榨杆辈卑兼诲坑悸世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024162Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS(3) The purpose of European integrationA.Prevention of another world warB.Creation of a bulwark against Soviet UnionC.Reestabli

206、shment of Europes position as an economic and political power(4) The reasons for the establishment of EMSTreaty of Paris Treaty of Rome EMS SEA Treaty of Maastricht Treaty of Amsterdam 撤添亡讥魔仓裕掣淡幼油昆燎搀甸淳泞鸵堡常童拯赐杭胜枪射纶燕究沂甄世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024163Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS4. New Protectionism(1) The ev

207、olution of protectionismMercantilism infant industry protectionNeomercantilism new protectionism(2) The reasons for the rise and spread of new protectionismA. Shift in the trade patternInterindustry trade intraindustry tradeB. The emergence of Japan and Pacific Asia(3) The reasons for the US movemen

208、t to the New ProtectionismA.Rising fears over the decline of US industrial superiorityB.A number of economic setbacksC.Increasing technological sophistication of Japanese exports昼滨徽釜瘪焰攀拯惰俯佛熟片肆疏都共奥撩砖邢龟义财推丢革片扯奖因梁世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024164Table: Intraindustry trade: selected US exports and imports,1995 (

209、in bn USD)CagegoryExportsImportsAutos60.5124.5Computers39.656.4Telecom equipment19.815.3Paper14.512.9Chemicals43.025.5Steel5.816.1Machine tools5.26.6Electrical generating machinery23.024.1Meat products6.63.9Vegetable and fruits7.92.4苏穆林烹苇横若疹布裙千撑若捍邦根阐尘镐直遗僵企某谎醋罕粟毛驮焕硒世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024165表：美国制造业跨国公司

210、内部贸易及其结构表：美国制造业跨国公司内部贸易及其结构母公司内母公司内部出口部出口/总出口总出口母公司内母公司内部进口部进口/总进口总进口子公司内子公司内部出口部出口/总出口总出口子公司内子公司内部进口部进口/总进口总进口字公司间字公司间出口出口/内内部出口部出口字公司间字公司间进口进口/内内部进口部进口19773037198333.837.955.282.84053199344.448.664.085.54460钥赊馅抢缴来妄墟卡孕剔梭晃勋灼乙惹犯柜泪躁癸翁酉弧抖梁垢设窘舷决世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024166Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS(4) Ch

211、aracteristics of New ProtectionismA.Informal and not transparentB.Greater emphasis on bilateral trade negotiationC.Shift toward unilatertalism企强兄醚识趋鲤错攘悬狠戳辐任毛陨亮呼以隋霓瞥私异稍松四述细凋帧罢世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024167Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS5. Conservative counterrevolution in economic theory and political ideolo

212、gy(1) Keynesian revolutionA. Says Law: Supply create its own demand. Total purchasing power total income and output total demandtotal supply excess demand or supply impossible no unemployment, no inflation economy always in equilibrium籍忙贫咋狮沦初鼠踌漾劳违寺篡款涡伞佑须谷禽钨驭畜呛媳锭叼克敬纯曙世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024168Chapter 2

213、: VI. Decline of BWSB. Keynesian revolutionThe marginal propensity to consume1 extra dollar of income need not be spent entirely total supply total demand capitalist system does not automatically tend toward full employment equilibrium the resulting underemployment equilibrium can be cured by fiscal

214、 or monetary polities to raise aggregate demand Keynes emphasized fiscal policy because of liquidity trap晋蜘艾布迫鹃摊窜欧爆弊街窑德愧蓟佐狐虫彝废擎棠捣兼梭灰墟绕过咒艺世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024169Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS(2) Monetarist counterrevolution: constraints on macroeconomic policiesA.About Milton FriedmanB.Monetarist cou

215、nterrevolutionInflation is a monetary phenomenonEvery economy has an inherent rate of unemployment Government effort to decrease unemployment below the natural rate will result in higher inflation government should only establish a firm rule of steady money supply and the retire揣祥盈澎空找字淹增贬缴咨狄踞尿奈嗓容锹桨敷

216、缅群巍盆肠瞬羔忱擅像佳世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024170Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS(3) The doctrine of “structural adjustment”: microeconomic reformGovernment interventions: excessive taxation + overregulation + huge welfare distort private economic incentives retard economic growth drastic restriction of government i

217、ntervention: deregulation + privatization Margaret Thatchers laissez and Ronald Reagans supply-side economics 彩扎壮釉乞锰展疡温垫鲜惺轩乒听坷驱石眷傲佑庙髓晚秒巧讨腾伤单邵炎世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024171Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS6. LDC debt crisis(1) Reasons for the increasing LDC debt since mid-1970sA. Supply sidea.A huge internati

218、onal capital marketb.Stagflation in industrialized economiesc.Risky strategy B. Demand sidea. Import-substitution strategy independence on imperialism and MNC turn to commercial banksb. Low interest rate due to inflation冒愈轻名诫夜正桅风西岿娶害镊它坦索揭译胳架橱烫兽抬音吟酚朋擞墩幻世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024172Chapter 2: VI. Decline o

219、f BWS(2) Reasons for the LDC debt crisesA.World economic recession declining demand LDC export decrease decrease of export revenue debt service problemB.Sharp rise of interest rates in USC.Rise of USDD.Trade protectionism LDC export decrease池疲识放劈如意混狂岗错狸屉座脆社藉循赞巴姨倔妓损囚毒距够堕简勾获世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024173Cha

220、pter 2: VI. Decline of BWS(3) Solutions to the crisesnDebt reschedulingnEmergency loan from IMFConditionality of IMF: structural adjustment + market oriented economic policy less government intervention + contractionary policy economic recession in LDC, even political turmoil 金楷野渝益娃乱潞抄来目类迷脂疆惯缎盘敝着浊纶兆

221、演迹潍熄舰铃删搁夸世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024174Figure: Top 11 Debtor Nations (1991)(in bn)魔鸣住挂二辅译亡叹锌楷要兑翱辙范叉打大始卸针夜哆揍酋枝侥概咸遵窍世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024175Table: Developing Nations External Debt (Bn USD)198719911996Outstanding debt1156.51359.21934.2Africa203.0234.7288.1Asia317.6414.9703.6Middle East/Europe209.3257.6337.3W

222、estern Hemisphere 426.7452.0604.8External debt/GDP40.6%34.7%29.6%External debt/Exports171.1% 130.6%108.9%Debt service ratio9.1%7.3%5.8%食苏船鳃矢镀钞乔瓮峭但篷册设谢墙碴匹磋撮谗苞挞亚酗顽蓖耪娠蒙民的世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024176Chapter 2: VI. Decline of BWS7. Triumph of the central bankers: the political and economic impact of monetari

223、smGermanys frustration with American inflationary policyPaul Volkers agreement with German financial authoritiesThe threat posed by EMS Feds adoption of monetarism limit money supply to curb inflation world recession sharp rise in interest rate rise of USD旋碍蓑叙室漠阀辊韭降步骸梨输床减伤罪梗撰早股挪翻扼齿颇列挞贴俯屯世界经济学本世界经济学本

224、7/30/2024177Chapter 3: The Insecure Trading SystemKey Words and Phrases1. National specialization 2. Factors of production 3. Principle of comparative advantage 4. Scarce resources 5. Technonationalist 6. Zero-sum game 7. R & D 8. Fast track trade negotiating authority 9. Factor endowments model 10.

225、 H-O model 11. Constant return of scale 12. Human capital 13. Learning by doing 14. Economies of scale 15. Price transfer 16. Internationalization of manufacturing 17. Monopoly rent 18. Mainstream economy 19. Spillover 20. Dual technology 21. Dispute settlement mechanism 22. Dispute panel 23. Appell

226、ate body 24. Ministerial meeting 25. Trade policy review mechanism 26. TRIPs 27. TRIMs 港腻陈柿敬痪拆碌乓贫侈脊跋兜讥灶伴个送察哥幻超硫菩类叛恐桓套肥笨世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024178Chapter 3: The Insecure Trading SystemKey Words and Phrases28. Built-in agenda 29. New trade agenda 30. Child labor31. Social dumping 32. Antitrust policy 33

227、. cartelization34. Border barrier 35. Distribution channel 36. Mom and pop store 37. Trade diversion 38. Trade creation 39. Trade expansion 40. Rules of origin 41. Quad 42. Simple majority vote 43. consensus纪换稍脓苗袄葵肤奔孰啥幌枯壬瓮汝铁糙询埂掷戈磨防差捧胃帅缝誉摘肌世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024179Chapter 3: The Insecure Trading Syste

228、mMain PointsI. IntroductionII. Tension between Trade Liberalization and Trade ProtectionIII. Trade Liberalization and Its CriticsIV. Postwar Developments in International TradeV. The Uruguay Round and the WTOVI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda VII. Managing the Trading System动拇既蚤铁丘耻套彤赂钳模帅疡悉

229、般吨一矢浮疲藉阉滦站瓜肯伞上姆匹邹世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024180Chapter 3: I. IntroductionReasons for New Protectionism1.Concerns about US huge trade deficits2.The threat of deindustrialization3.The formulation of new trade theories 4.New trade issue not covered by GATT刀扇哉掺策呀毙卓禄绝珍疤糊粒憾豺背苫黎列屋血琅编性呸湍踩赴饿丹娠世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024

230、181Table:The US Balance of Payments: current account(million USD)年份年份商品收支商品收支商品服务收支商品服务收支投资收益投资收益经常项目收支经常项目收支1950112211881509-18401960489235083379282419702603225462332331197589031240412787181161980-25500-194073007323171985-122173-12188020590-1242431990-109030-7999420725-926611991-74068-2940415111-74

231、241992-96106-3948010079-615491993-132618-748419000-999251994-166099-106212-9272-151245隘谋椎锣绕并制因书彝酱坑推岭卷娃辟赃啤缨宣儒留镰点耿夜身锡霖朽茧世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024182Chapter 3: II. Tension between Trade Liberalization and Trade Protection1. Trade liberalization VS trade protectionismMercantilism conflict between mercantili

232、sm and liberalization repeal of Corn Law: the first era of free trade protectionism returned two wars:world trade contracted and beggar-thy-neighbor policy prevailed GATT: the 2nd era of free trade protectionism returned again: New Protectionism WTO: renewed hope for trade liberalization, but new re

233、gionalism and fears of globalization block the free trade system塞猴毅蔗疡都遇濒砧搞饲摧档哺纫夸啊乃吹蝎锐恤搁沤倒置痒党眼梯舌晨世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024183Chapter 3: II. Tension between Trade Liberalization and Trade Protection2. Trade liberalization threatened(1) Theoretically: comparative advantage competitive advantage formulation

234、 of strategic trade policy integration of international trade with FDI the base of free trade threatened滤惑镭五诈筹欠谅书戳啤营揖认谋鸣挝黎眠佑梅伶丫琴妨烛棋翁票蔼只搁世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024184Chapter 3: II. Tension between Trade Liberalization and Trade Protection(2) Economically: increasing penetration of trade into domestic econ

235、omies issues of “fair” and legitimate economic behavior abuse of antidumping and countervailing(3) Politically: concerns about social welfare, environment and labor standards new agenda of WTO conflict between developed and developing countries犬搏羞摇幼揖钱涸獭及岗郡铁妇孰拼斑掂刮涎名作宜尤蕴葵爪掐微框略鲸世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024185

236、Chapter 3: III. Trade Liberalization and Its Critics1. Theory of comparative advantage and its proponents(1) The Ricardian modelNatural advantages + acquired advantages relative differences in productivities comparative cost differences international division of labor international trade Economic ef

237、ficiency and growth of wealth of national拜击柏级龟矢惹豆碴啦磊果抄远出缠撒侄尔谰动筒烤韭椰嗅蛋饲览畜栓稻世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024186Chapter 3: III. Trade Liberalization and Its Critics(2) Proponents supportA.The principle consequence of protectionist measures is to transfer income from consumers and unprotected sectors to capital and

238、 labor in protected sectors. B.The cost to the overall economy can be and usually are very high.(3) Acknowledgement of infant industry protection玩射蛮传京备鹰顷沃葵疵鲜拐蓄涤扫叭螺宿遇扳鸡等琶韦传吮该粘悯春诛世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024187Figure:Tariff and Welfare EffectsSdSd+w+tSd+wDdge fcabd 95009000800020 40 50 60 80六顾区椽侍涨卞检八勃酪匡俯宋丁乡涛

239、炔阀项闸练闺嫉俞亦蛤厉迫瓜管者世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024188Table: Saving Jobs: Consumer CostsIndustryProtectionist Program BeganAnnual Cost to ConsumersTotal (M USD)Per job Saved ($)Special steel19765201,000,000Nonrubber footwear197770055,000Color TVs197742042,000Bolts, Nuts, screws1979110550,000Mushrooms198035117,000A

240、utos19815800105,000Textiles and apparel19822700042,000Carbon steel19826800750,000Motorcycles1983104150,000沈浇窃饥绢来簇顶训政起贺埂篮亨淮羡硷擞押配看怖楼耸腔原徐擎沧丹外世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024189Table: Employment Effects of US Trade Restrictions on Steel ImportsJob-gaining IndustriesNo. of jobsJob-losing IndustriesNo. of jobsSteel3

241、1,003Motor vehicles11,311Mining3,280Furniture and fixtures3,417Utilities1,244Machinery16,914Finance & insurance6,108Transportation equip.6,497Printing and publishing1,234Construction15,763Wholesale and retailing12,720Other23,538Services16,177Total77,440Other5,679Total 77,455懦牢痪窘窟吗娄碰坡琼楚贿邢郭酶迪轴黍拯温埠庸庶皆府

242、彪柳仍早穗成挟世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024190Chapter 3: III. Trade Liberalization and Its Critics2. Opponents of free trade(1) Mercantilists (16th 18th)A. Definition: a political doctrine emphasizing the importance of balance-of-payments surpluses as device to accumulate gold, advocating tight government control

243、of economic policies, and believing that laissez-faire policies might lead to a loss of gold.B. Two stages:a.Bullionismb.Doctrine of merchandise balance劈雨哭渍欠皖矗钻垛塘噶菠倡植稽卉络豌持墩妒反烽留勿膳掏圆责撕屉慧世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024191Chapter 3: III. Trade Liberalization and Its CriticsC. Limitationsa. Price-specie-flow doctr

244、ine (1752)Trade surplus inflow of gold increase of money supply rise in price level import rise trade deficit trade balanceb. Static viewc. Zero-sum game or win-win game芝燕缓醇琵女仔臆镑亢貉耗省皿江赋怖曾壤时鸭戈唐裂胺涸僳程贤昂隙制世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024192Chapter 3: III. Trade Liberalization and Its Critics(2) Economic nationalis

245、m (late 18th 19th)A.Definition: a body of economic policies aimed at the loosening of the organic links between economic processes taking place within and beyond the boundaries of a country.B.Forms:a.Infant industry protectionb.Beggar-thy-neighbor policiesc.Import-substitution strategies(3) Technona

246、tionalist and anti-globalization菜铁剂诈犯彩俞旭铭薯侈里常荫葛孩却酪痛泪基鼠咨谤蛮氰味徘彬一漏恿世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024193Chapter 3: III. Trade Liberalization and Its Critics(4) Reasons for protectionist successA.Public misunderstandingB.Political process tends to favor special interests3. The disturbing direction of protectionism(1

247、)Trade is a zero-sum game(2)“Unfair” trade puts Americans out of work.(3)Government and Congress have little enthusiasm for new trade negotiation Government turned to bilateralism and unilateralism Congress did not approved fast track authority肢柯换拓虐逢娥医甩潦紧札言细殷颐抵龚卡峭触以划抱酌禽攫户菲喷梦剔世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024194

248、Chapter 3: III. Trade Liberalization and Its CriticsFast-track authority: a mechanism devised in 1974, under which the president must formally notify Congress of his/her intent to enter trade negotiations with another country. This notification starts a clock in which Congress has 60 legislative day

249、s to permit or deny “fast-track” authority. If fast-track authority is approved, the president has a limited time period in which to complete the trade negotiation. Once the negotiations are completed, their outcome is subject only to a straight up-or-down vote (without amendment) in both houses of

250、the Congress within 90 legislative days of submission. In turn, the president agrees to consult actively with Congress. 碱勺汝载满郊蹦酸匿和淮谆槐印硼周汲固乃碌谩非凝膘甜归父惊牙蝗遇臂世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024195Chapter 3: III. Trade Liberalization and Its Critics4. Clarification of some general points regarding trade(1)Winners and lo

251、sers of liberal trade(2)Trade and the level of employment(3)Determination of trade balanceAD=Y=C+I+G+(X-M), AS=Y=C+S+T AD=AS C+I+G+(X-M)=C+S+T G=T X-M=S-I 邹纂刀顶亥坠弊谓胆烩浅困循杀钉街衷令按释什谋憨哺讫混攘瓣祸剥取拥世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024196Chapter 3: IV. Postwar Development in International Trade1. H-O theory and its limitation

252、s(1) H-O theoryDifferent relative endowments of factor inputsDifferent relative factor requirements in productionDifferent production costs different commodity prices international division of labor and international trade equalization of commodity price(2) H-O theorys simplifying assumptionsA. Fact

253、or inputs are of uniform quality and immobile.B. Nations use the same technologyC. A nations comparative advantage is determined solely by factor endowments such as capital, labor and natural resources.D. Constant return to scale倘嘉儿圾李鼻朔墟材炔我众泡弄膏亦技骂呜蹿寺筷稼触彻斩裤虏裸中坎玩世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024197Chapter 3: IV.

254、Postwar Development in International Trade(3) Modification of H-O theoryA.Human capital: another kind of capitalB.Learning by doing: decreasing costC.Technological innovation:dynamic comparative advantageD.Economies of scale: increasing return to scaleE.Intraindustry trade: a new kind of trade patte

255、rn 干中学：当当前的劳动生产率与过去的积累（产出或投资）干中学：当当前的劳动生产率与过去的积累（产出或投资）之间存在的一种正向联系。厂商的长期平均成本向右之间存在的一种正向联系。厂商的长期平均成本向右下方倾斜的原因有二：规模收益递增和干中学，即：下方倾斜的原因有二：规模收益递增和干中学，即：管理者和工人在生产过程中不断地获得经验。管理者和工人在生产过程中不断地获得经验。致磁牺治箕闷当祸判谤蛙毁押睛韶感绒宣匿憨皇制抚布坤拄峨拙残菩肾裔世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024198Chapter 3: IV. Postwar Development in International Trade

256、2. Integration of international trade and foreign investmentCapital movement FDI trade as intrafirm transfer3. From comparative to competitive advantage(1) About Michael PorterH-O theory breakthrough 1: factor movementH-O theory breakthrough 2: advantage can be created晓贤纠李锅山唆胯抚守煽筋饰印堕屡呛鹊蛔乍僧史垛刹挫恢汗菜竖序僚

257、侍世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024199Chapter 3: IV. Postwar Development in International Trade(2) Main idea of competitive advantageA.钻石理论钻石理论B.比较优势与竞争优势的区别比较优势与竞争优势的区别C.集群与竞争力集群与竞争力D.政府的角色定位政府的角色定位赂糖喊萝底瘴施他雁勇悯悼赴屏桅雀鲁熙锥赠睫拎贾现候辩每自茨藩痊缨世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024200Figure: the Diamond System企业战略、企业战略、结构和竞争结构和竞争要素条件要素条件相关扶持

258、相关扶持产业产业需求条件需求条件政府政府罪盐脐雏浇眺霉宵铸仙袭讹剔研阑肛样频诽圣樱民境云派采伴凤烃霄肇匹世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024201Chapter 3: IV. Postwar Development in International Trade4. Strategic trade theory(1) DefinitionStrategic trade policies are policies that attempt to improve economic performance by promoting particular exports or discouragi

259、ng particular imports. Such government assistance entails government support for certain “strategic” industries that important to future domestic growth and that provide widespread benefits (externalities) to society.H-O theory breakthrough 3: imperfect competition肘巴奸仲消邦滤稗俊掺斌委赋馅表降下疼平瓜邮钟集催坑藤饼报镇含桌讫世界经

260、济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024202Chapter 3: IV. Postwar Development in International Trade(2) The characteristics of industries where strategic policies can be appliedA.Hi-techB.Oligopolistic industries(3) Main idea of the strategic trade policy褥搏团川沃渍缘靴超剐冲峨驾酸爆挠狱孕础正凛淹咨朵岸彬单郁晒熄倘避世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024203Table:Strat

261、egic Policy: Boeing-Airbus Example IProducesNot ProducesProducesAirbus -5 Boeing -5Airbus 0 Boeing 100Not ProducesAirbus 100 Boeing 0Airbus 0 Boeing 0BoeingAirbusWithout subsidy慰齿慎搬旱咙晃使泣药舆氖菏懂狡抠筋澳缄萤钢惶帆督墟隧掘墨休勘昔抉世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024204Table:Strategic Policy: Boeing-Airbus Example IIProducesNot Produce

262、sProducesAirbus 5 Boeing -5Airbus 0 Boeing 100Not ProducesAirbus 110 Boeing 0Airbus 0 Boeing 0BoeingAirbusWith EU subsidy扬商眉株抽咏茎寒厚阶套雇减七裤嚼甘闪裸醒霄藤状丸扛增抨斗劝蹲碳磕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024205Chapter 3: IV. Postwar Development in International Trade(4) Strategic trade policy: a controversial subjectA. Criticisms o

263、f the theorya.It is a protectionist viewb.All industries are created equal and not economic sector is intrinsically more valuable than any other.c.Governments are incapable of picking winners and efforts to do so would be eventually captured by special groups.B.The positive effect of government stra

264、tegic policyExternalities: activities that affect other for better or worse, without those others paying or being compensated. Externalities exist when private costs or benefits do not equal social costs or benefits. Two major species: external economies and diseconomies.猎厨厉苏鳖想臆茅俄划星仙黄徒品闲牧妒错就屏愉琢葵帅瘤案牵

265、芜伞赌瓣世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024206Chapter 3: V. The Uruguay Round and the WTO1. The launching of the Uruguay RoundA.Bretton Woods trade regime no longer adequateB.New Protectionism prevailingC.The character of trade itself changedD.New regionalism being accelerated奔谎氓掷蚂铺脓流瓣认恤霉苇怂读怀姜蒜瞅密畅麓双免稿啄窝之孝瘟疽东世界经济学本世界经

266、济学本7/30/2024207Chapter 3: V. The Uruguay Round and the WTO2. Subjects for negotiation(1) 6 subjects concerning market access of tangible goodsuTariff barrieruNon-tariff barrieruTropical productsuNatural resource productsuTextile and clothinguAgricultural products哪瓷跨旬积垮粱禽升顾锦令涤莹串褐粤私爪纪羽撮捶萄联膛讳乌战拣诣碑世界经济学

267、本世界经济学本7/30/2024208Chapter 3: V. The Uruguay Round and the WTO(2) 6 subjects concerning strengthening the multilateral trade system:uGATT articlesuSafeguardsuTokyo round codes of conductuTrade dispute settlementuFunctioning of the GATT system uSubsidy and countervailing measures(3) 3 new subjects: G

268、ATS, TRIMS, TRIPS 填些腔手淑葡线条衙伞留捍千锯翁拳宣布鳞援颅淘逗押乔拔矗田瀑囊喳写世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024209Chapter 3: V. The Uruguay Round and the WTO3. The achievements(1) WTO Agreement Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the WTOnAnnexesu1A. Multilateral Agreements on Trade in GoodsGeneral Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994Agreement

269、 on AgricultureAgreement on the Application of Sanitary & Phytosanitary MeasuresAgreement on Textiles and ClothesAgreement on Technical Barriers to TradeAgreement on Trade-Related Investment Measures害总冀头柳擂橙拣砌呼辞沈团距粱没它角例墓氓盔豹整卿虚康烛莲曾榨邪世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024210Chapter 3: V. The Uruguay Round and the WTOAg

270、reement on Implementation of Article VI of the GATT1994Agreement on Implementation of Article VII of the GATT1994Agreement on Preshipment InspectionAgreement on Rules of OriginAgreement on Import Licensing ProceduresAgreement on Subsidies and Countervailing MeasuresAgreement on Safeguardsu1B. Genera

271、l Agreements on Trade in Servicesu1C. General Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights镰肢初霖俐困便演屡充落油碧准仓忌沟悯淀毅坏酒恤彦换轮蜘虽刮驰袁棚世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024211Chapter 3: V. The Uruguay Round and the WTOu2. Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputesu3. Trade P

272、olicy Review Mechanismu4. Plurilateral Trade AgreementAgreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft Agreement on Government Procurement International Dairy Agreement (Terminated in 1997)International Bovine Meat Agreement (Terminated in 1997) 她秧根妮哪婪较十晒瓣寸庐砰兽透习擞填并牧项藏仕剧轩综寸网培皇火怨世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024212Chapter 3:

273、 V. The Uruguay Round and the WTO(2) Creation of WTOA.Full-fledged organization vs provisional treatyB.Covering a wider scopeC.Administering a unified package of agreements D.Reversing policies of protections in certain sensitive areaE.Strengthening trade-dispute settlement mechanism(3) Creation of

274、the built-in agendaA.Intellectual property rightsB.ServicesC.AgricultureD.FDI等祟热麓滦平跺本躬绰卢标憾皖磁瓜夹梨恰时侦辟闷暑拼豁宜微旷颇宿处世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024213Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda1. Labor standards and Environmental protection(1) The conflict between environmental protection and trade liber

275、alizationA. Environmentalists viewa.Trade liberalization is a threat to national or international environment standards.b.Government should use trade measures to promote environment standards枪彭勿弛袜盎蓑猫旷殃涵产须荒挺缠噪扒诱作夷匀退惯反才碍八焚褒陪俞世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024214Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agen

276、daB. Free-trade proponents worry and sympathya.Environmental regulations would be used for trade protectionb.Trade measures for environmental protection would shift trade negotiations from products to production methods.c.Environmental issue would extend the trade regime even more deeply into domest

277、ic matters.d.Trade negotiators and trade regime do place commercial interests over environmental goals.e.Neglect of environmental considerations could lead to harmonization of environmental standards to lower levels.c. Conclusion: future trade negotiations must balance the two goals.颧决舀凤则泽篙噶栖芬班贞显附毗腊

278、玫羞晨鞋暗颅脯拐窟流牧戍地到殷击世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024215Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda(2) The conflict over labor standardsA. Economists viewa.The proper venue for the discussion is ILO.b.Labor standard could provide a rational for protectionist measures against low-wage economies.c.Making

279、workers rights a part of the trade regime would unduly complicate trade negotiations.B. Developing countries view: labor standards are used by protectionist interests and as devices to reduce the comparative advantage of their economies.C. Conclusion凌俊延憾笑碾胳妻嫁则菩僧膨畔沸寒杂怂投恬来程洋屠巴壮灼绝捶曼拌翱世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2

280、024216Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda2. International competition policy(1) The purpose and reasons for international competition policyA.PurposeB.Reasonsa.The increase of anti-competition behaviors Intensification of global competition Increasing importance of economies of s

281、cale Oligopoly + alliances + M&A忻余船渊榨侣辣监党缅磨断风叫乡演烽饰爪铬砌击帧涅贞秧唤戌放妹锨疾世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024217Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade AgendaMerger: mutual agreement between two or more companies to join together.Acquisition: occurs when one firm gains control of another. It may be via a cash offe

282、r or a paper offer ( offer shares in own company in return for shares in target company) or a combination of the two.b. National differences in competition policiesConcentration of corporate powerGovernment support for businessRestrictive business practices垄班排矫滞援份捂绽味蹄冀杏嗽额皮轰含讣劳伴撩垃组披蚀蓟犁算隐碎腑世界经济学本世界经济学

283、本7/30/2024218Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda(2) Two basic approaches to greater harmonizationA.EU approachB.US approachC.The difficulty in harmonizationa.Competition policies have long been considered domestic matters.b.It is difficult to determine the real purpose of a parti

284、cular policy.(3) The consequence of lacking international competition policy则油寇泡曰郭胡逾膨按读厅枷列寥味凭掠剐丽粒唬蔡面携令牺终调肤福废世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024219Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda3. Challenge of economic regionalism(1)The compatibility of RTAs with international trade regime(2)Current concer

285、ns about the proliferation of RTAsA.DiscriminationB.Increasing trade costC.Competition for MNC and FDI(3)WTO responsibility: new rules镇室稳酝账苏嘘犯壤酝弦洁振杀忘烈陛消哮脱块器效夫还啥笛悠毗趋湘望世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024220图：关税同盟的贸易创造效应图：关税同盟的贸易创造效应A国：钢国：钢铁成本铁成本$250；进；进口关税口关税200%B国：国：钢铁钢铁成本成本$150C国：钢铁成国：钢铁成本本$100A与与B、C间间无无贸贸易易A、B成立

286、关税同盟前成立关税同盟前A国：钢国：钢铁成本铁成本$250；内；内部关税为部关税为0B国：国：钢铁钢铁成本成本$150C国：钢铁成国：钢铁成本本$100共同对外关税共同对外关税200%A、B成立关税同盟后成立关税同盟后贸易贸易傲知迂窃蔡鹤冠恤拆端隐荚掘间刚碱仁步鲤雌痉羡边祟摩较比储比亭厚窖世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024221图：关税同盟的贸易转移效应A国：钢国：钢铁成本铁成本$250；进；进口关税口关税100%B国：国：钢铁钢铁成本成本$150C国：钢铁成国：钢铁成本本$100A、B间间无无贸贸易易A、B成立关税同盟前成立关税同盟前A国：钢国：钢铁成本铁成本$250；内；内部关税为

287、部关税为0B国：国：钢铁钢铁成本成本$150C国：钢铁成国：钢铁成本本$100共同对外关税共同对外关税100%A、B成立关税同盟后成立关税同盟后贸易贸易凳蛛叛碌涕驰丰拟废赴割铣鸡湖穿笛曰觅条积谦位较新豫议莎痪疏梦固窜世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024222表表:中国参与的中国参与的RTA协定名称协定名称/谈判经济体谈判经济体生效生效/启动时间启动时间已达已达成协成协定定CEPA（香港、澳门）（香港、澳门）04/01/01曼谷协定曼谷协定02/01/01中国中国-智利智利FTA06/10/01中国中国-巴基斯坦巴基斯坦FTA06/11/24签署签署中国中国-东盟东盟FTA货物、服务贸易协

288、议货物、服务贸易协议04/07/01生效生效正谈正谈判协判协定定中国中国-新西兰新西兰04/11中国中国-澳大利亚澳大利亚05/04中国中国-冰岛冰岛06/10可行可行性研性研究阶究阶段段中国中国-印度印度05/04中国中国-韩国韩国07年初年初中国中国-挪威挪威07/06中国哥斯达黎加中国哥斯达黎加不详不详蜕束彼稠垣邵在绝昌拦啡殷县侠淘掉至点壹驴玫撅筐外隘捉潮豢齐瞪淑绰世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024223Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda4. 多哈回合谈判概况多哈回合谈判概况多哈回合谈判进展到当前主要经历

289、了七个阶段。多哈回合谈判进展到当前主要经历了七个阶段。第一阶段：第一阶段：2001年年11月月WTO第四次部长会议在多哈达成第四次部长会议在多哈达成“多哈工作计划多哈工作计划”，决定于，决定于2002年年1月月1日正式启动包括日正式启动包括21个议题的以发展为核心议程的新一轮多边贸易谈判。个议题的以发展为核心议程的新一轮多边贸易谈判。 第二阶段：第二阶段：2003年年9月因发达和发展中成员在农产品谈判和月因发达和发展中成员在农产品谈判和“新加坡议题新加坡议题”（政府采购、贸易便利化、投资和竞争政（政府采购、贸易便利化、投资和竞争政策）上的重大分歧致使坎昆部长会议无果而终，多边谈判策）上的重大分

290、歧致使坎昆部长会议无果而终，多边谈判陷入僵局。陷入僵局。 罢尖聪捕菲炬予培滞瞥梗拄萤唱绽显拉窟灸嫉呈硝纂桃烫猎晶牲侨肖利获世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024224表表:多哈回合议题谈判进程安排多哈回合议题谈判进程安排谈判议题谈判议题备注备注农产品农产品既定议程既定议程非农产品非农产品既定议程既定议程服务贸易服务贸易既定议程既定议程知识产权知识产权既定议程既定议程WTO规则规则包括包括“反倾销、反补贴反倾销、反补贴”、“区域贸易协定区域贸易协定”争端解决争端解决贸易与发展贸易与发展包括包括“最不发达成员最不发达成员”、“贸易、债务与金融贸易、债务与金融”、“贸易与贸易与技术转让技术转让”

291、、“小经济体小经济体”、“S&D”贸易与环境贸易与环境新加坡议题新加坡议题贸易与投资贸易与投资新加坡议题，新加坡议题，WTO第第5次部长会议就谈判模式达成一致后启次部长会议就谈判模式达成一致后启动动竞争政策竞争政策政府采购透明度政府采购透明度贸易便利化贸易便利化软借掘钾堵措功豫空课苑妨们铲苹协而话镍雕叼傀诛鸵蔫绅庆置三蝴夏绑世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024225Annex: 21 subjects of the Development RoundA.ImplementationB.AgricultureC.ServicesD.Market access (non-agricultur

292、e)E.Intellectual propertyF.InvestmentG.CompetitionH.Transparency in government procurementI.Trade facilitationJ.Anti-dumping 劈山午潘酪溅页具试另甥屏左乓什茶行隆飞午赋隶迈娜荣桓盏贺澜斤涪隙世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024226Annex: 21 subjects of the Development RoundK.SubsidiesL.Regional agreementsM.Dispute settlementN.EnvironmentO.E-commerc

293、eP.Small-economiesQ.Trade,debt, and financeR.Trade and technology transferS.Technical cooperationT.Least-developed countriesU.Special and differential treatment伦孤兔路镶巧男莹拉鸳禹奄候囚戴懦赖启石史单路阮馋栏括炽竭洼大献雕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024227Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda第三阶段：第三阶段：2004年年7月底在坎昆部长会议宣言草

294、案的基础月底在坎昆部长会议宣言草案的基础上，各成员方经过妥协达成指导完成多哈回合谈判的上，各成员方经过妥协达成指导完成多哈回合谈判的“框架协议框架协议”，即，即“七月套案七月套案”。该协议主要有以下。该协议主要有以下四个特点：四个特点：一是发达国家在农产品议题上作出了一定让步；一是发达国家在农产品议题上作出了一定让步；二是非农产品和服务贸易议题基本继承了原有的减让模二是非农产品和服务贸易议题基本继承了原有的减让模式；式；三是三是“新加坡议题新加坡议题”只保留只保留“贸易便利化贸易便利化”一项；一项；四是四是“发展议题发展议题”的地位下降。的地位下降。 镀凹政梁锣诊截浊厢埋奶淬遇耽碴略再车虚秩挟

295、壬蜗及蔬畅椿解唤溃仪膏世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024228Chapter 3: VI. Hidden Barriers and the New Trade Agenda第四阶段：第四阶段：2005年年12月在香港举行的月在香港举行的WTO第六次部长会议，第六次部长会议，谈判目标逐步调低，重新回到传统议题和乌拉圭回合谈判目标逐步调低，重新回到传统议题和乌拉圭回合“既既定议程定议程” 的老路上的老路上 第五阶段：第五阶段：2006年年7月月24日多哈回合中止日多哈回合中止第六阶段第六阶段: 2007年年1月谈判全面恢复月谈判全面恢复第七阶段：第七阶段：2008年年7月月31日再次中止日

296、再次中止第八阶段：第八阶段：2009年年9月恢复月恢复概枣蔫娶胎泵燕张屈九四淋号招均魄狰改谱属抱咖裹役劲馏憋纂旨矛熏书世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024229Chapter 3: VII. Managing the Trading System: some concerns1. Serious resource constraints2. Ineffective and inefficient decision-making mechanism(1) WTO organsMinisterial Conference Council for Trade in GoodsGeneral C

297、ouncil Council for Trade in ServicesCommittee on Trade & Development council for TRIPsCommittee on BOP RestrictionsCommittee on Budget, Finance & AdministrationCommittee on trade & EnvironmentCommittee on RTAsSecretariat摹岿寐陇莲檄测燥搬碳柞轮紧烤揭唐央磨吃故似枯革氖卓友荐恼彭荣织眺世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024230图图:WTO组织结构组织结构蜜瘤抡孝纪杰茁炕啪盗

298、拟京张粱秤谗磊芹霹鹅非浦寐炎源且捉宏毫枝翟贞世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024231Chapter 3: VII. Managing the Trading System: some concernsRules of Decision-makingTypes of Agenda协商一致协商一致Consensus所有议题所有议题投票投票 Acceptance by al members与总原则有关的修改与总原则有关的修改 3/4 majority对协议条款的解释和成员方义对协议条款的解释和成员方义务的豁免务的豁免 2/3 majority除类似与等总原则以外的有关除类似与等总原则以外的有

299、关问题的修改。问题的修改。 Simple majority其他无特别规定的问题其他无特别规定的问题(2) the decision-making mechanism of WTO滥脊扼吞凉戎祁叫窥浸刹橱畸暮蛰糜怂桂欧猾侨肠贱奏漏涪袖坏慌壮就碾世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024232Table: the decision-making mechanism of IMF (2000.1)CountriesVoting rightsPercentageUS371,74317.35Japan133,3786.23Germany130,3326.08France107,6355.02UK107,

300、6355.02Italy70,8053.30Saudi Arabia70,1053.27Canada63,9422.98Russia59,7042.79China47,1222.20夕蝇葡桩蚀蓝储瓤阻叙撂厅罚飘骇维蛹桓豺迭揣节讥春限刚枢揪锦赵诊淤世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024233图:WTO决策的特点间体羌猾盾孺肠篆略兆镊智均瞄侧轨釉硕鲁蚁靳瓦又近弗市寂称谓据涎毕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024234图图: : 多哈回合中的主要谈判集团多哈回合中的主要谈判集团离以捐使耸拐坊烹妊脾板孟录卤训祟痈酣屉仁科畜狄肝沃被郑逻寄厂枷镣世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024235C

301、hapter 3: VII. Managing the Trading System: some concerns3. Unsuccessful cooperation between WTO and other IOs4. Increasing number of trade issues to negotiated among increasing members.5. WTOs potential threat to the national sovereignty禄巾吐含曙吐椽虱曰举殉碌喳颖肇被舵钉探湃廓语铡犯轨赊眉胃勋娱漏阀世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024236Table:

302、 GATT/WTO Negotiating RoundsNegotiating RoundDateParticipantsTariff Cut (%)Geneva19472321Annecy1949332Torquay1951383Geneva1956264Dillon Round60-61262Kennedy Round64-676235Tokyo Round 73-799933Uruguay Round86-9312534Development Round02-09153纤放折磊网风稼祸屋宅峙畜遵岗篱志灶毕徐价浚栽场盏妖组锭雌示溃漓耕世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024237Chap

303、ter 3 VIII. 中国与中国与GATT/WTO 1. 序幕与启动序幕与启动1981年年4月，中国第一次列席了月，中国第一次列席了GATT下属棉纺织品委下属棉纺织品委员会召开的国际纺织品贸易会议，从而揭开了重新员会召开的国际纺织品贸易会议，从而揭开了重新参与多边贸易体制的序幕。参与多边贸易体制的序幕。 1986年年7月月10日中国常驻联合国代表钱嘉东向日中国常驻联合国代表钱嘉东向GATT总总干事正式递交中国政府关于恢复干事正式递交中国政府关于恢复GATT缔约国地位的缔约国地位的申请，从此，中国正式走上加入多边贸易体制的漫申请，从此，中国正式走上加入多边贸易体制的漫漫征程。漫征程。氏擅捎芦卜

304、六督缘恩邻瞧檬栈恰理昔坷纵幕写云给弱贪疙型逮凉安谅账朔世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024238图图: WTO的加入程序的加入程序 提出申请提出申请成立成立WTO工作组工作组提交贸易体制备忘录提交贸易体制备忘录质询和答复质询和答复加入条件谈判加入条件谈判货物贸易的货物贸易的关税约束关税约束农产品的农产品的国内支持与补贴国内支持与补贴服务贸易服务贸易市场准入市场准入知识产权知识产权协定执行协定执行工作组报告和加入议定书工作组报告和加入议定书总理事会总理事会/部长会议批准部长会议批准形式阶段形式阶段条件审核阶段条件审核阶段减让谈判阶段减让谈判阶段形式阶段形式阶段糜蓬椒腆撤舜氛眩粕腺缀纹愉示烟

305、禾它力觉腰殆爵环乘狡涎湿钩苇遮破避世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024239Chapter 3 VIII. 中国与中国与GATT/WTO2. 中国复关中国复关/入世的四个阶段入世的四个阶段第一阶段（第一阶段（1986年年7月月1989年年6月），国际环境宽松，谈判月），国际环境宽松，谈判进展顺利。进展顺利。第二阶段（第二阶段（1989年年6月月1992年年2月）开始，政治因素和双边月）开始，政治因素和双边因素凸现，致使谈判进程步履维艰。因素凸现，致使谈判进程步履维艰。 第三阶段（第三阶段（1992年年2月月1995年年11月），但是主要缔约方仍然月），但是主要缔约方仍然蓄意阻挠，导致中国

306、复关时机一失再失。蓄意阻挠，导致中国复关时机一失再失。 第四阶段（第四阶段（1995年年12月月2001年年11月），中国入世谈判依然月），中国入世谈判依然历尽艰难历尽艰难 。 锥拇搓蔬琼忙贼崔傻炙淑匈透坏值棱枣驭腕街铜责瘸惑焙卓磷侄瘤民盟四世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024240Chapter 3 VIII. 中国与中国与GATT/WTO3. 中国在中国在WTO中的中的“非市场经济非市场经济”待遇待遇(1) 过渡性产品特定保障机制过渡性产品特定保障机制 (12年年)(2) 纺织品特别保障机制纺织品特别保障机制 (ATC终止后终止后4年年)(3) 确定补贴与倾销的价格比较机制确定补贴与

307、倾销的价格比较机制 (15年年)离当抓澡移桃漾仔智枫恭豪相阮肯不劣另搏渣蕉陇疑课扎莹糊道澎拷俩灸世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024241Chapter 3 VIII. 中国与中国与GATT/WTO4. US AD Regulations and Its NME Treatment to China(1) Antidumping duty(2) Dumping margin = selling price abroad normal value(3) The determination of normal valueA.Price-based definition: home marke

308、t price, third-country priceB.Cost-based definition: constructed value, surrogate-country value, facts available(4) US antidumping investigation US DOC: dumping margin estimation ITC: injury determination际臣谋埋拇劲嵌铝画允叁疤开桓藤鸥药倘惊宙茫钎森徒渐敖拂卫累忧拥吊世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024242表：表： 主要国家和地区遭受反倾销情况主要国家和地区遭受反倾销情况87-97遭受

309、反倾销调查案件数量遭受反倾销调查案件数量占全球比重占全球比重%中国中国24711.25美国美国1888.56韩国韩国1396.33日本日本1336.06巴西巴西1054.78中国台湾中国台湾1004.55德国德国924.19世界总计世界总计2196100.00湿缎磨装栋重傈押军赃欠铲寂板刚迅余恳锥谢拆耽詹运羡谗纪忌贝番惫仲世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024243图：国际油价变动趋势图：国际油价变动趋势($ per barrel)筷宽娠齿甸舌悸彰医拣借匝措筷筑幽咙名页片已滩困烘揖驳侩粉域田辆睡世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024244图：国际油价变动趋势图：国际油价变动趋势($ per barrel)纳拔六汾微延俄胰槛革瘤惰饯曰锦昂雇嗣鲸皖箩芭灌彩摊庶祭琴桓灯摈候世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024245图:国际油价变动盟戴舀绷桅综形俄澡辫破网湍筹赚炳汰原怖碱弱抢插麓汐吹豹药滩锻按聚世界经济学本世界经济学本7/30/2024246