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1、实事求是实事求是2727实事求是，具体分析实事求是，具体分析多层次，多维度，历史，比较，动态，和演化的分析 从复杂到简要历史线索案例实证的收集，归纳，分类寻找综述文献-理清前人争论的要点，思路研究具体机制，模型寻找经验证据或反例案例 - 金融改革，全球和历史的比较案例 - 银行改革，历史的经验和体制的分析宏观战略的摇摆和国企改革的弯路互相矛盾的短期目标：政府过度剥夺，企业技术老化，人员缺乏流动和竞争互相矛盾的管理部门：中央地方，党政工监，效率与公平，竞争与就业；不断摇摆的政策导向，经理层无稳定预期缺乏行业自治和规模兼并，扶弱抑强而非选优汰劣与民争利：好企业安插私人，坏企业甩包袱，企业改革意在转
2、移财政负担而非增强国际竞争力高税收，多摊派，增加企业风险与负担保护产权和鼓励创新产权由下而上“清晰”的基本单位：家庭，企业，学校，和村社企业和村社的资产核算，债务清理，和破产重组修改破产法，平等用于个人，企业，事业，和地方财政法人村社改革，企业改革，和地方财政改革建立个人，家庭，企业，各级财政（有权发行地方债卷的法人）的独立性和完整性建立竞争性的，官民平等的，普遍信用制度各级政府的财政受民意机构和金融市场的双重监督整体改革的顺序和策略整体改革的顺序和策略财政并轨，经济大赦，暗帐化明，承认私产和集体小金库，补交收入税，灰色收入一次性合法化，建立新的游戏规则财，政，工会经济分开，福利基金独立建户，
3、民主管理降低公司税，增加财产税，遗产税，老人抚养减免所得税鼓励创造就业财务清理，冻结旧帐，另开新户村社改革兼并，村社自治必须基于财务自立整理，分拆，出售，和勾销村社及地方债务，建立坏债的二手市场地方财政和行政改革，建立地方建设公债市场税制改革和减税鼓励企业创造就业，鼓励地方的多样发展在信用制度和财政分权制的基础上，进行金融改革建立储蓄保险制度，逐步开放民营银行国企改革方向调整战略目标：退出盈利产业，依靠民营创造就业，从事长期投资的公用事业和战略产业：例如航空-军养民支部建在社区而非企业改革企业干部制度，由国资行业投资机构设立董事会，按市场法则聘任经理由信用机构对经理人员评级，发展人才市场实行破
4、产法，鼓励企业兼并和结构调整拍卖程序透明，不得以国企保值理由阻碍企业的结构调整企业自行选择职工福利待遇金融体制 发展不平衡的焦点财政体制 - 平调与补贴利率自由化 鼓励跨地区投机，资本流向沿海地区，加大地区差距财政中央集权 地方逃说，增长放慢财政中央放权 地方赤字，矛盾上缴开放银行民营 过度投机， 道德风险政府非规范的财政行为是三角债和信用混乱之源没有周期性的清帐，结算，和报亏制度，掩盖技术过时的财务亏损利用地区差异的经济规律利用地区差异的经济规律货币兑换率浮动（欧盟初期）地区基础利率浮动（美国）人口流动（美，中）法律体制差异（联邦制）金融改革的短期目标建立平等统一竞争的信用体系（包括家庭，企
5、业，地方财政机构）将地方政府的三角债转为地方政府债卷，受中央行政和金融市场的双重监督加大民营企业上市的速度用金融市场监督激励消费者，企业，和各级财政实体（有权发行地方债卷者）建立透明，竞争，稳健，选优的金融市场银行改革-创造公平竞争的环境冻结，转换现有坏帐，开设新帐户国企小金库合法化，彻底实行实名制统一会计标准，平等对待企业和财政实体全部三角债透明化，债务对冲国有银行改制，按地区按行业竞争建立民营与国有银行的储蓄保险制度，逐步开放民营银行加强银行监管，防止风险集中和关联交易提高服务收费，鼓励银行服务竞争限制存款的利率上限，放宽贷款的利率浮动范围，实行分业经营，限制跨地区投机金融改革的长远目标实
6、现小政府，高效率，低税率，简法制，中等收入，尖端科技，确保领先和持续的国际竞争力将四级政府（省地市县）改为三级（省市县），在华中建立新都建立家庭为主，地区为辅，中央保底的多层次，低成本的社会保障制度，避免高福利，高成本的社会福利制度放宽经济新闻的管制，扶植上海成为国际金融中心逐步使人民币成为国际硬通货，与美元，欧元并肩准备应付国际金融市场的转型国际金融危机和大萧条日本老化，美元强末，欧元弱势七国集团和游戏规则善用中国金融的优势：外贸持续出超美国国债第二大买主外汇储备第二大国东北亚货币联盟和东南亚自由贸易区改善生态，持续增长，国际合作改善生态，持续增长，国际合作沿海土地仅出让使用权，内地绿化的荒
7、山可继承私有。发展电动汽车和氢能源调正源头，南水北调（黄河，长江，澜昌江，雅鲁藏布江），重塑生态联合开发沿海石油（西欧的煤钢联营，罗斯托）对俄国的和亲政策和开发西伯利亚学习的方法上海格致中学的教改试点班：学生自学和自复习华罗庚的故事：自学，观察，厚与薄马克思的方法：关于人类的事物我都要知道，每个问题都要问一个为什么考试的诀窍：把握方向与范围，大量习题（分类和方法），记住常用中间结果不记得失，轻装上阵首战表现，先入为主，争取自由从学习到研究中国科学技术大学的研究风气严济慈：几何证题法，巴黎的沙龙，钱三强统一理论的构造：温标，理想气体学生俱乐部大量查阅和比较文献，习题，和数学技巧先忘却，再推导理论
8、体系研究的方法量子力学和广义相对论的教训：隐藏假设，高维空间，理论矛盾，实验基础四清与文革：农村的人多势众，工业的规模经济，社会的劳动分工铁路经验：事故的分类与防范，抑制与鼓励创新的制度核聚变研究：规范，制度，创新，协作，整体规划，学术领袖改革路线与全球战略：包产到户与兵源，毛泽东思想与李约瑟问题问题，学派，风格波尔：原子核结构，量子解释爱因斯坦：统一理论，因果性佯谬卡皮查俱乐部，斯大林的决断，和朗道学派希尔伯特问题，开尔文乌云，和庞加勒灵感普里高津：时间箭头，化学钟，蚂蚁的分工，耗散结构，混沌动力学与非平衡统计物理赫曼：宇宙背景辐射和大爆炸宇宙学，交通流杨政宁，李政道：宇称，规范场罗斯托，赛
9、蒙，索罗，萨缪尔逊：数学的作用阿罗，蒋硕杰，邹至庄，张五常：经济学理论与中国问题Methodological ProgressBounded rationality (Simon) and business psychology (Tversky and Kahneman )Mandelbrot: Levy distribution and fractal Brownian motionExperimental economics and rule of game (V. Smith)Information asymmetryIncreasing returns (Krugman) and p
10、ath-dependence (Arthur)From Division of Labor to Evolutionary BiologyNeedhams question and Prigogines thermodynamics of evolution (1972)Division of labor and economy of scaleTheoretical biology: stability vs. complexity (May, 1973)Cultural factor in specie competition: race between individualism & c
11、ollectivism (1987)From Economic Chaos to Evolutionary EconomicsFirst evidence of economic chaos from monetary data (Chen, 1985)Tinbergen, Simon, Samuelson, Rostow, and SolowDebate with econometricians: noise (Brock) vs. chaos (Chen)Detrending and the Copernicus problem (1993), Zarnowitz and KydlandN
12、on-stationary time-frequency analysis (1994)Understanding Economic Instability & Coherence: From Persistent Cycles to Endogenous FluctuationsFrisch model and harmonic Brownian motion (Chen, 1999)Principle of large numbers and Lucas fallacy (Chen, 1999-2002)Birth-death process and economic coherence
13、(Chen 2001, Li 2002)Dynamic Microeconomics and Strategic Pricing under Limited Market and Economic Physics (Chen 2002)Co-existence of technologies and excess capacityLotka-Volterra wavelet and product cycleGabor wavelet and coherent state in quantum mechanicsPerfect information=total confusion under
14、 Wigner-Gabor-Qian representationTesting Ground: The Great Depression and The New Economy BubbleTemin and Rothbad: failure of monetary theoryLucas: persistence and labor rigidityFeldstein: Interruptive technologySummerce: Two types of business cyclesNew economy bubble and excess capacityEconomic Ins
15、tability and Economic ResilienceDynamic DD-SS and multiple equilibriumConflicting trends and uncertainty in IS-LM curveThree level structure: micro-finance-macroIntrinsic instability in industry competition and financial marketProper competition and entry regulationRethinking Economic OrderEquilibri
16、um and non-equilibrium orderConstructive role of life rhythms and increasing entropyWavelet rather than cycle as the building block of living movementsEvolutionary process with necessity and chanceDiagnosis rather than predictionTime window and relevant informationNew IdeasU-shaped and multi-humped
17、distributionImperfect cycles, complex cycles, persistent cycles, biological clock, and color chaosTrade-off between complexity & stabilityGeneral Smith Theorem: division of labor is limited by market extent, number of resources, and environment fluctuationsProduct cycle, excess capacity, and market
18、rationality of investment strategyUnsolved IssuesFormulation of two-way causalityStructural information vs. horizontal informationOrigin of (firm, state) boundariesEvolutionary mechanism of hierarchical structureDynamic pricing strategy under varying economy and business cyclesRisk management under
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27、JbMeQhTlWoZr%u(x+B2E6H9KcOfRiUmXp!s&v)z0C3F7IaMdPgSkVnYq$t*x-A1D5G8JbNeQiTlWo#r%u(y+B3E6H9LcOfRjUmYp!s&w)z0C4F7IaMdPhSkVnZq$t*x-A2D5G8KbNeQiTlXo#r%v(y+B3E6I9LcOgRjUmYp!t&w)z1C4F7JaMePhSkWnZq$u*x+A2D5H8KbNfQiTlXo#s%v(y0B3E6I9LdOgRjVmYp!t&w-z1C4G7JaMePhTkWnZr$u*x+A2E5H8KcNfQiUlXp#s%v)y0B3F6IaLdOgSjVmY
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30、A2D5G8KbNfQiTlXo#r%v(y0B3E6I9LcOgRjVmYp!t&w)z1C4G7JaMePhSkWnZr$u*x+A2D5H8KcNfQiUlXo#s%v(y0B3F6I9LdOgRjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhTkWnZr$uB3E6I9LcOgRjVmYp!t&w)z1C4G7JaMePhSkWnZq$u*x+A2D5H8KbNfQiUlXo#s%v(y0B3F6I9LdOgRjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhXo#r%v(y0B3E6I9LcOgRjVmYp!t&w)z1C4F7JaMePhSkWnZq$u*x+A2D5H8KbNfQiUlXo
31、#s%v(y0B3F6I9LdOgRjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhTkWnZr$u(x+A2E5H8KcNfQiUlXp#s%v)y0B3FMePhSkWnZq$u*x+A2D5H8KbNfQiUlXo#s%v(y0B3F6I9LdOgRjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhTkWnZr$u*x+A2E5H8KcNfQiUlXp#s%v)y0B3F6IaLdOgSjVmYq!t*w-z1D4G7JbMeQhTkWoZr$u(x3F6I9LdOgRjVmYp!t&w-z1C4G7JaMePhTkWnZr$u*x+A2E5H8KcNfQiUlXp#s%v)y0B3F6IaLdO
32、gSjVmYq!t*w-z1D4G7JbMeQhTkWoZr$u(x+B2E5H9KcNfRiUlXp#s&v)y0C3F6IaLdPgSjVnYq!t*w-A1D4G8JbMeQhTlWoZr%u(x+B2E6H9KcOfRiUmXp!s&v)z0C3F7IaMdPgSkVnYq$t*w-A1D5G8JbNeQhTlWo#r%u(y+B2E6H9LcOfRjUmXp!s&w)z0C4F7IaMdPhSkVnZq$t*x-A2D5G8KbNeQiTlXo#r%v(y+B3E6H9LcOgRjUmYp!s&w)z1C4F7JaMdPhSkWnZq$u*x-A2D5H8KbNfQiTlXo#s%v
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35、3E6I9LcOgRjVmYp!t&w)z1C4F7JaMePhSkWnZq$u*x+A2D5H8KbNfQiUlXo#s%v(y0B3F6I9LdOgRjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhTkWnZr$u(x+A2E5H8KcNfRiUlXp#s%v)y0B3F6IaLdOgSjVmYq!t*w-z1D4G7JbMeQhTkWoZr$u(x+B2E5H9KcNfRiUmXp#s&v)y0C3F7IaLdPgSjVnYq$t*w-A1D4G8JbMeQhTlWoZr%u(x+B2E6H9KcOfRiUmXp!s&v)z0C3F7IaMdPgSkVnYq(x结束语结束语谢谢大家聆听！谢谢大家聆听！35
