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1、气候变化与减贫政策Climate Change and Poverty Reduction Policies齐顾波Qi Gubo2011.2.25The Strategic Initiative to Support Chinas New Stage Poverty Reduction and Growth with Equality (2011-2020)Sub-Report Four研究背景Background贫困人口适应气候变化的能力有限中国生态脆弱区的贫困人口面临更大的气候变化风险考虑气候变化的减贫实质是加强贫困人口气候变化适应性加强贫困人口的气候变化适应性包括提高抵御风险的自主适应能
2、力以及消除宏观气候政策所导致的生计脆弱性Limited capacity of poor to adaptation to climate changePoors more risks to CC in ecological fragile zoneNature of poverty reduction with integration of CC consideration is to enhance resilience of poor to CCTo enhance resilience of poor to CC include improving autonomous adaptab
3、ility and eliminating livelihood vulnerability induced by macro CC policiesIs climate change a risk to livelihood development of poor people, and a threaten to push people back to poverty?气候变化风险所导致的脆弱性正在成为引发贫困的重要因素Vulnerability caused by climate change risks: the main causes of poverty 生态脆弱区具有显著气候变化
4、特征以及极端气候事件发生的较大可能性，其生存脆弱性较高，形成较高贫困发生率 Ecotones are of notable features of climate change and have relatively higher possibility of extreme weather events, thus poverty incidence is higher in these areas数据来源：绿色和平组织，乐施会，2009；李周，孙若梅，高岭等，1997。无论是突发灾害，还是累积式的气候变化，都对生态脆弱区的贫困人口的生计脆弱性造成直接影响。 -灾害性贫困已经成为中国农村贫困
5、的主要特点 -累积式的气候变化也对贫困人口的生计脆弱性造成很大的影响 Both unexpected disasters and cumulative climate change have direct impacts on the livelihood vulnerability of poor population in ecotones. 气候变化风险所导致的脆弱性正在成为引发贫困的重要因素Vulnerability caused by climate change risks: the main causes of poverty生态脆弱区的气候风险与农户的特殊风险双重作用于贫困户的
6、生计，加深其脆弱性。在生态脆弱带，农村贫困人口的生计脆弱性较高，抵御气候变化风险的能力很低。生态脆弱区的大多数贫困农户，受到资产积累能力的限制，并不能减缓气候风险的影响。气候风险对农户生计脆弱性造成的威胁在边远地区和少数民族地区更为显著，同时更大程度地影响到这些地区的妇女的生计状况。（如： 澜沧江流域某村气候风险与其他因素共同作用于妇女生计的案例） Climate risks of an ecotone and the idiosyncratic shocks for the farmers in the area have impacts on the livelihood of poor
7、population, at the same time, worsening the livelihood vulnerability.气候变化风险所导致的脆弱性正在成为引发贫困的重要因素Vulnerability caused by climate change risks: the main causes of poverty气候变化可以通过共生风险而加深特殊风险。如：气候变化风险导致牲畜死亡和作物绝收，从而引发疾病和生命风险 Climate change can increase idiosyncratic shocks through covariate ones. -Shocks
8、of extreme weather events such as drought and floods are closely related to idiosyncratic shocks such as injury, starvation and sudden diseases of a single rural household.气候变化风险所导致的脆弱性正在成为引发贫困的重要因素Vulnerability caused by climate change risks: the main causes of povertyThen, what measurements, at bo
9、th policy level and local people level, have been done to reduce such risks? Have poverty reduction policies considered those risks? Have those policies relating with climate change mitigation and adaptation reduced the livelihood vulnerability of poor people? How about local peoples action?扶贫战略措施与气
10、候变化风险Poverty alleviation strategies and climate change risks在现有的扶贫策略中并没有专门考虑气候变化风险。小额信贷增强了农户的适应能力；但不足以应对突发灾害。产业扶贫资金通过产业结构调整增强抗风险能力，但会忽视生计脆弱性高的农户。 多类型、非单一的生产活动有助于缓解气候风险 设施农业有助于缓解生计的气候脆弱性 生计脆弱性高的农户难以获得产业扶贫的支持 The existing poverty alleviation strategies do not pay special attention to climate change ri
11、sks. -Microfinance enhances adaptability of farmers, but is insufficient for them to deal with unexpected disasters. -Industrial funds for poverty alleviation enhance the risk-resisting capacity by the industrial restructuring, but overlook the farmers with high livelihood vulnerability扶贫战略措施与气候变化风险
12、Poverty alleviation strategies and climate change risks最易受到气候变化影响的农户不能受益于整村推进扶贫的项目自愿移民扶贫中贫困人口受到限制 以工代赈的方式为增强气候变化的适应能力创造一定条件农田 水利、电力、道路等基础设施的建设提供了适应气候变化的条件 -The farmers most vulnerable to climate change cannot benefit from poverty alleviation projects of village approach. -Poor population faces more
13、restrictions in poverty alleviation through voluntary migration. -Work-relief investment is positive in enhancing adaptability to climate change to some extent in practice气候变化的缓解和计划适应政策与贫困人口生计脆弱性Mitigation of climate change, adaptation policies and the livelihood vulnerability 自然保护区等生态敏感区的相关政策所配套的生态
14、补偿不足以缓解贫困人群的生计脆弱性生态敏感区的政策及其配套措施并不能缓解贫困人口的生计脆弱性在全国生态脆弱区规划中，对于八个生态脆弱区的19个重点区域规划更多以生态保护行动为主生态补偿措施，多数在实质上只是对贫困人口的经济补偿，还未达到生态补偿的水平，尤其未考虑到对缓解气候变化风险的贡献The policies and supplementary measures for ecologically sensitive areas cannot reduce the livelihood vulnerability of the poor population气候变化的自主适应对缓解生计脆弱性具
15、有直接的贡献Adaptation to climate change: Reducing livelihood vulnerability贫困人口的气候变化适应能力，以及计划性适应相关的各种政策和行政措施能够在一定程度上缓解贫困人群气候变化的脆弱性：基于传统生计结构下的应对措施、替代生计结构、外部干预结合传统生计结构进行适应、外部干预下进行替代生计结构的调整适应 各个生态脆弱区贫困人口面对气候变化，均具备一定的自主适应能力。 The poor populations adaptability to climate change and various planned adaptation-re
16、lated policies and administrative measures can reduce the poor populations vulnerability to climate change to some extent.气候变化的自主适应在相应的外部支持下能发挥更大作用Adaptation to climate change: Corresponding external assistance协助将不可预期转化为可预期协助贫困人口制定灾害之前的救助计划协助贫困人口和社区运用传统与现代技术相结合的措施保证生计安全外部支持的可替代生计可以通过增强储备能力提高对气候风险的自主
17、适应提供工程技术和信息预测等服务，也有助于提高适应能力 To transform the unpredictable into the predictable. To make assistant plan in advance Take the measures that combine traditional and modern technologies to ensure the livelihood safety Alternative livelihood strategy Infrastructure and information servicesWhat can we lea
18、rn more from other experiences?气候变化风险纳入减贫框架的国内外经验Foreign experiences: Including climate change risks in the PA framework 外部干预的缓解机制的总体框架：涉及政府、社区和市场各方 中国宁夏气候变化适应框架 社会转移是应对气候变化挑战的一种有效方式小额保险机制作为风险管理和完善社会保护机制的具体措施能够发挥作用。 资产框架通过构建和管理农户资产来缓贫 -The alleviation mechanism of external interventions concerns gov
19、ernments, communities and markets. -Framework for adaptation to climate change, designed on the basis of Ningxias situation -Social transfers as an effective measure -Micro-insurance as concrete measure -The Assets Framework建议Suggestions长期扶贫战略长期扶贫战略缓解气候变化风险的扶贫战略缓解气候变化风险的扶贫战略扶贫规划中纳入气候风险分析和评估；并将社会保护措施
20、通过气候变化适应支持专项资金纳入预算；并将地方管理人员的能力建设列入规划。中期政策规划中期政策规划通过以下切入点将气候变化的适应策略通过以下切入点将气候变化的适应策略纳入减贫框架纳入减贫框架以生态脆弱区为评估范围，将气候变化风险分析和评估作为扶贫规划的一项重要内容将社会保护措施内化为适应策略，并将自主适应策略发挥作用所需的政策支持量化出来，然后作为“扶贫中气候变化适应支持专项资金”纳入预算开展机构能力建设：不同层面及其之间的交流不同生态脆弱区进行试验行动 Long-term strategy Mid-term policies建议Suggestions 近期政策措施近期政策措施 在生态脆弱区更加关注以工代赈措施 设立气候变化风险基金 设立气候变化风险的小额保险机制 通过参与式发展规划的路径整合进气候变化适应的内容 国际合作的可能领域国际合作的可能领域 气候敏感扶贫战略的制定和实施过程中的行动研究： -“面向穷人的气候风险专项基金设立与管理” -“面向生态脆弱区穷人的小额保险机制” -“加强社区组织能力建设，推动气候变化风险适应” Immediate Policies and Measures Potential for international cooperation谢谢！Thanks
