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1、INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSCopyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCHAPTER 18Equity Valuation Models权益估值模型INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSValuation: Fundamental Analysis估值：基础分析Fundamental analysis models a companys value by assessing its current
2、and future profitability.基础分析是指通过公司现在以及未来的盈利状况对公司价值进行建模分析The purpose of fundamental analysis is to identify mispriced stocks relative to some measure of “true” value derived from financial data.基础分析的目的是为了找出定价错误的股票，定价错误是相对于某个金融数据计算出来的价值“真值”而言。2INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSBalance Sheet Models资产平衡
3、表模型Dividend Discount Models (DDM)股利贴现模型Price/Earnings Ratios市盈率模型Free Cash Flow Models自由现金流模型Models of Equity Valuation权益估值模型3INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSValuation by Comparables比较估值Compare valuation ratios of firm to industry averages.将公司的某个价值比率与行业的平均值比较Ratios like price/sales are useful for v
4、aluing start-ups that have yet to generate positive earnings.比如价格/销售收入就在评估那些刚创业还没用取得正盈利公司的价值4INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSLimitations of Book Value账面价值的局限性Book values are based on historical cost, not actual market values.账面价值衡量的是历史成本，而不是实际的市场价值It is possible, but uncommon, for market value to b
5、e less than book value.有可能，但不是经常见，市场价值比账面价值低（前景很悲观的时候）“Floor” or minimum value is the liquidation value per share.底价或最低价是每股清算价值Tobins q is the ratio of market price to replacement cost.托宾Q是每股股价/重置成本（各类资产的市场现值）5INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSIntrinsic Value vs. Market Price内在价值v.s.市场价格The return on
6、 a stock is composed of dividends and capital gains or losses.股票回报有股利和资本利得The expected HPR may be more or less than the required rate of return, based on the stocks risk.期望收益可能比资本资产模型所定义的必要收益率或高或低，反映了公司特有的风险6INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSRequired Return必要收益CAPM gives the required return, k:If the
7、 stock is priced correctly, k should equal expected return.如果证券正确的定价，那么k与期望收益相同k is the market capitalization rate.它也被称作市场的资本化率（意思是市场所要求的资本基础风险收益率）7INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSThe intrinsic value (IV) is the “true” value, according to a model.根据模型，内在价值是真实价值The market value (MV) is the consensus
8、 value of all market participants市场价值是市场参与者达成共识的价格Trading Signal: 买卖信号IV MV BuyIV k只有资产收益率高过必要收益率，b越高市盈率也越高25INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSTable 18.3 Effect of ROE and Plowback on Growth and the P/E Ratio资产收益率与再投资率对增长率和市盈率的影响26INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSP/E and Growth Rate市盈率与增长Wall Street
9、rule of thumb: The growth rate is roughly equal to the P/E ratio.华尔街经验法则：增长率约等于市盈率“If the P/E ratio of Coca Cola is 15, youd expect the company to be growing at about 15% per year, etc. But if the P/E ratio is less than the growth rate, you may have found yourself a bargain.”若市盈率比增长率低，大概有便宜可占Quote f
10、rom Peter Lynch in One Up on Wall Street.27INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSP/E Ratios and Stock Risk市盈率与股票风险When risk is higher, k is higher; therefore, P/E is lower.风险越高，必要收益率也越高，那么市盈率也越低28INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSPitfalls in P/E Analysis市盈率分析陷阱Use of accounting earnings会计利润Earnings Manage
11、ment盈余管理Choices on GAAP会计准则的选择Inflation通胀Reported earnings fluctuate around the business cycle报表中的利润通常会随着商业周期曲线的变换上下波动29INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 18.3 P/E Ratios of the S&P 500 Index and Inflation市盈率与通货膨胀30INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 18.4 Earnings Growth for Two Companies 两
12、家不同公司的盈利增长31INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFigure 18.6 P/E Ratios for Different Industries, 2007不同行业的市盈率32INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSOther Comparative Value Approaches其他的估值比率Price-to-book ratio市净率，市值/账面Price-to-cash-flow ratio股价/现金流Price-to-sales ratio股价/销售额33INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCU
13、SFigure 18.7 Market Valuation Statistics市场估值的统计 34INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSFree Cash Flow Approach自由现金流估值方法Value the firm by discounting free cash flow at WACC.使用税后债务成本和权益成本的加权平均收益Free cash flow to the firm, FCFF, 公司自有现金流equals:After tax EBIT税后息税前利润Plus depreciation加上折旧Minus capital expendit
14、ures减去资本化支出Minus increase in net working capital再减去净运营资本增加35INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSComparing the Valuation Models估值模型的比较In practiceValues from these models may differ各个估值模型的价值可能不同Analysts are always forced to make simplifying assumptions分析师总是倾向于做出各种简化现实的假说36INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSThe Aggregate Stock Market整体股票市场Explaining Past Behavior解释过去的行为Forecasting the Stock Market预测股票市场的表现37INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSTable 18.4 S&P 500 Price Forecasts Under Various Scenarios不同情境下对标准普尔500指数的预测38
