中国股市和美国股市镜像关系的实证研究3.ppt课件

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1、Class 3.Perception I.Definition and importanceA process by which individuals organize and interpret their sensory impressions in order to give meaning to their environmentWhat one perceives can be substantially different from objective reality, Peoples behavior is based on their perception of what r

2、eality is,not reality itself.1感谢你的观看2019年8月7II.Factors Influencing Perception The perceiver,object,contextThe perceivers personal characteristics interpretation-attitudes,motives, attentive focus-preoccupied problem, interests, past experience(novice,keen) Distortion-expectation Characteristics in t

3、he target attractiveness of the shape-motion,sounds,size background,similarity,physical or time proximityThe Situation-T,location,light,heat,setting2感谢你的观看2019年8月7III.Attribution TheoryNonliving objects are subject to the law of nature with no beliefs,motives or intentions. Perception of a persons a

4、ction influenced by the assumptions we make about the persons internal stateWhen individuals observe behavior,they attempt to determine whether it is internally or externally caused. 3 factorsInternally caused behaviors(external causation) : under the personal control of the individual;3感谢你的观看2019年8

5、月7III.Attribution TheoryDistinctiveness:whether an individual displays different behaviors in different situation.(unusual) Consensus:if everyone faced with a similar setting responds in the same way.(high-E) Consistency:does the person respond the same way over time. .(high-I) Fundamental attributi

6、on error:the tendency to underestimate the influence of external factors-when making judgement about others Self-serving bias:4感谢你的观看2019年8月7IV.Shortcuts in judging othersMake accurate perception rapidly,riskSelective perception:people selectively interpret what they see based on their interests,bac

7、kground, experience,and attitudes. Study take the stimuli in bits and piece,riskHalo effect:Drawing a general impression about an individual based on a single characteristic. -traits are ambiguous in behavioral,moral overtone,limited experience 5感谢你的观看2019年8月7IV.Shortcuts in judging othersContrast e

8、ffects:Evaluations of a persons characteristics that are affected by comparisons with other people recently encountered who rank higher or lower on the same characteristic.Projection:Attributing ones own characteristics to other people. (take homogenuity for granted)Stereotyping:Judging someone on t

9、he basis of ones perception of the group to which that person belongs1st impression, recent6感谢你的观看2019年8月7V.Applications in OrganizationsEmployment interview-Make inaccurate perceptual judgements; Early expression-1st 4-5 minutes carry greater weight; Absence of unfavor-Performance expectations Self

10、-fulfilling prophecy:when one inaccurately perceives the 2nd & the resulting expectations cause the 2nd person to behave in ways consistent with the original perception7感谢你的观看2019年8月7V.Applications in OrganizationsPerformance evaluation: Objective measure; subjective appraisal,perceptionEmployee eff

11、ort:Usually an individuals future is not dependent on performance alone, sometimes the lever of effort is given high importance. Subjective judgement.Employee loyalty or commitment: openly disparaging,looking for outside opportunities, whistle-blowers8感谢你的观看2019年8月7Section 2 The link between percept

12、ion and Individual Decision MakingDecision:The making of choices from among 2 or more alternatives An important part of OB,empowering. The way & quality of choices-perception Problem:A discrepancy between some current state of affairs & desired state. Awareness; information(data) screening,processin

13、g9感谢你的观看2019年8月7I.The Optimizing D-M ModelThat describes how individuals should behave to maximize some outcomeSteps:1.Ascertain the need for decision-disparity 2. Identify the decision criteria 3.Allocate weight to the criteria 4.5.Develop,evaluate the alternatives 6.Select the best10感谢你的观看2019年8月7

14、I.The Optimizing D-M ModelAssumption of the Optimizing Model Simple,well-structured Rationality:Choices that are consistent & value-maximizing. Fully objective & logical Goal oriented(compatible), criteria set,All options are known, Preferences are clear,constant,solution can be found (final choice)

15、Prediction from the model-Stable over time11感谢你的观看2019年8月7II.Alternative D-M Model 1.The Satisficing ModelComplexity,high uncertaintyA D-M model where a decision maker chooses the 1st solution that is “good enough”,that is satisfactory & sufficientBounded rationality:Individuals make decisions by co

16、nstructing simplified model that extract the essential features from problems without capturing all their complexity.12感谢你的观看2019年8月7II.Alternative D-M Model 2.The Implicit Favorite ModelA D-M model where the decision maker implicitly selects a preferred alternative early in the decision process & b

17、iases the evaluation of all other choices13感谢你的观看2019年8月7II.Alternative D-M Model 3.The Intuitive ModelAn unconscious process created out of distilled experienceIntuition:a form of extrasensory power, 6 sense; personality trait inherent; chess player Condition:1.high level of uncertainty,2.little precedent,3.variables are less predictable,4. “ fact” limited,5.the way is not clear,6.analytic data are of little use,7.several alternatives,8.time pressure14感谢你的观看2019年8月7III.Current Issues in D-MEthical criteria Utilitarianism,right,justiceDifferent cultureEscalation of commitment15感谢你的观看2019年8月7

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