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1、1-1:TheUnitedStatesIsUnemploymentTooLow?IstheStockMarketTooHigh?WhyHasGrowthSlowedDown?WhyHasWageInequalityIncreased?第1页/共36页第一页，共37页。HowtoLookataneconomyWhenweLookataneconomy,macroeconomistsfocusonfirstthreemeasures:Output,thelevelofproductionoftheeconomyasawhole,anditsrateofgrowthTheunemploymentra
2、te,theproportionofworkersintheeconomywhoarenotemployedandarelookingforajob.Theinflationrate,therateatwhichtheaveragepriceofthegoodsintheeconomyisincreasingovertime.第2页/共36页第二页，共37页。Growth,Unemployment,andInflationintheUnitedState,1960-1999(in percent)1960-1998199719981999200020012002Output growth ra
3、te3.13.93.93.63.30.32.9Unemployment rate6.04.94.64.24.04.85.8Inflation rate4.01.91.01.11.91.41.0第3页/共36页第三页，共37页。1-2:TheEuropeanUnionHowtoReduceHighUnemployment?WhatWilltheEuroDoforEurope?第4页/共36页第四页，共37页。Growth,Unemployment,andInflationintheEuropeanUnion,1960-1999(in percent)1960-1998199719981999Ou
4、tput growth rate3.12.72.81.9Unemployment rate6.411.210.510.1Inflation rate5.71.81.81.7第5页/共36页第五页，共37页。1-3:JapanandEastAsia1WhatHasJapanDoneSoPoorlyinthe1990s?WhatWastheCauseoftheAsianCrisisof1997?第6页/共36页第六页，共37页。Growth,Unemployment,andInflationinJapan,1960-1999(in percent)1960-19971997 19981999Out
5、put growth rate5.80.8-2.8-0.9Unemployment rate1.93.44.14.9Inflation rate4.80.60.4-0.7第7页/共36页第七页，共37页。OutputGrowthinEastAsianCountriesandDistricts,1970-1999(in percent)1970-1997199719981999Hong Kong7.55.2-5.1-1.3Singapore8.27.51.50.5Korea8.45.5-5.52.0Taiwan8.36.84.93.9Indonesia6.84.7-13.7-4.0Malaysi
6、a7.47.8-6.80.9Philippines3.65.1-0.52.0Thailand7.5-0.41.03.0China9.18.87.87.1第8页/共36页第八页，共37页。1-4:ChinaGDPinChina1952-2002GDPGrowthRateinChina1953-2002InflationRateinChina1978-2002TheSumofTradeandProportioninGDP第9页/共36页第九页，共37页。Appendix:GDPinChina1952-2002YearGDPYearGDPYearGDPYearGDP195267919651716.1
7、19783624.1199121617.819538241966186819794038.2199226638.1195485919671773.919804517.8199334634.4195591019681723.119814826.4199446759.41956102819691937.919825294.7199558478.11957106819702252.719835934.5199667884.61958130719712426.419847171199774462.61959143919722518.119858964.4199878345.21960145719732
8、720.9198610202.2199981910.91961122019742789.9198711962.5200088246.819621149.319752997.3198814928.320019593319631233.319762943.7198916909.220021023981964145419773201.9199018547.92003第10页/共36页第十页，共37页。Figure:GDPinChina1952-2002第11页/共36页第十一页，共37页。Appendix:GDPGrowthRateinChina1953-2002Yeargrowth rateYea
9、rgrowth rateYeargrowth rateYeargrowth rate1952196517197811.719919.2195311.5196610.719797.6199214.219544.21967-5,719807.8199313.519556.81968-4.119815.2199412.6195615196916.919829.1199510.519575.1197019.4198310.919969.6195821.319717198415.219978.819598.819723.8198513.519987.81960-0.319737.919868.81999
10、7.11961-27.319742.3198711.6200081962-5.619758.7198811.320017.3196310.21976-1.619894.120028196418.319777.619903.8Average:7.9第12页/共36页第十二页，共37页。Figure:GDPGrowthRateinChina1953-2002第13页/共36页第十三页，共37页。Appendix:InflationRateinChina1978-2002YearInflation RateYearInflation RateYearInflation Rate19780.71987
11、7.319966.119792198818.519970.819806198917.81998-2.619812.419902.11999-319821.919912.92000-1.519831.519925.42001-0.819842.8199313.22002-1.319858.8199421.7Average:5.3419866199514.8第14页/共36页第十四页，共37页。Figure:InflationRateinChina1978-2002第15页/共36页第十五页，共37页。Appendix:TheSumofTradeandProportioninGDPYearSUM(
12、RMB)ProportionIn GDP(%)YearSUM(RMB)ProportionIn GDP(%)1978355.0 9.8199523499.9 40.21980570.0 12.6 199624133.8 35.619852066.7 23.1199726967.2 36.219905560.1 30.0199826857.7 34.319917225.8 33.4199926896.3 32.819929119.6 34.2200035368.6 40.1199311271.0 32.5200138021.3 39.6199420381.9 43.6200246309.9 45
13、.2第16页/共36页第十六页，共37页。1-5:TheCoreContentofMacroeconomicsThelongruneconomicgrowthBusinesscycleUnemploymentInflationInternationaleconomicThepolicyofmacroeconomiceconomic第17页/共36页第十七页，共37页。ThelongruneconomicgrowthTowatchtheworld,wecandiscoverthatthereareabigdifferentaboutcitizenlifeinthedifferentnation.
14、Explainitfrommacroeconomics,thebasicreasonthatthelongruneconomicgrowthrateisdifferentindifferentcountry.Itgoeswithoutsaying,theincreasingoflaborforcesisaheadspringforthelongruneconomicgrowth.Butthemostimportantheadspringforthelongruneconomicgrowthsurelycomesfromtheimprovingoflaborproductivity.第18页/共
15、36页第十八页，共37页。Diagram:TheeconomicgrowthtrackintheUnitedStatessince1870第19页/共36页第十九页，共37页。ThechangeoftheUnitedStatesslaborproductivitysince1900第20页/共36页第二十页，共37页。BusinesscycleItisimpossibleforanyacountrytokeepachangelesseconomicgrowthrate.RegardingtheUnitedStatesastheexample:In1929-1933thatthebigdepre
16、ssedperiod,theoutputleveldescendednear30%.Intheperiod1939-1944,becausetheUnitedStatestookpartintheSecondWorldWar,andtheoutputalmostturnoveratimes.After1945,theeconomyofUnitedStatesrunrelativelysteady,butstillundergodeclinesuchas1973-1975,1981-1982,1990-1991.Macroeconomistsusethetermofbusinesscycleto
17、describethiskindofsharpexpandandcontractinshort-termeconomicactivities.第21页/共36页第二十一页，共37页。TheoutputfluctuationintheUnitedStates,1950-1990第22页/共36页第二十二页，共37页。UnemployedWheneconomyundergorecession,theunemploymentratewillincrease.Theunemployment,economicgrowthandbusinesscyclealltogethermakeupofthecore
18、contentofmacroeconomics第23页/共36页第二十三页，共37页。ThechangeabouttheunemploymentrateintheUnitedStates,1890-1990第24页/共36页第二十四页，共37页。InflationInflationisasustainedriseinthegenerallevelofprices.Theinflationrateistherateatwhichthepricelevelincreases.Itisaimportanttaskformacroeconomicstodiscussaboutthecauseofthe
19、inflationemergeandtheeffectofinflation第25页/共36页第二十五页，共37页。InternationaleconomyIntheopeneconomy,acountrymacroeconomicsurelybeaffectedbytheinternationaleconomicsituation.Forexample,inthecircumstancethatwidespreadforeigntrade,inflationwillbetransmitamongthestate-to-state.Thetradesurplusandtradedeficitw
20、illsurelyaffectacountrysemploysituationandfiscalsituation.第26页/共36页第二十六页，共37页。MacroeconomicpolicyItisveryimportanttostabilifymacroeconomicrunningthataseriesofeconomicpolicytookbythegovernment.Amongthem,themostimportantpolicyarefiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicy.Thefiscalpolicybeconstitutedbythegovernment
21、staxpolicyandexpenditurepolicyThecontentofmonetarypolicyisthatacountryhowtocontrolandadjustthegrowthrateofmoneysupplyundertheNationalCentralBankscontrol.Agoodorbadmatchforfiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicywilldirectlyaffectacountrysmacroeconomicrunning.Thereforethemacroeconomicpolicyisalsoamaincontentofm
22、acroeconomics.第27页/共36页第二十七页，共37页。1-6:LookingAhead1Whatdeterminesexpansionsandrecessions?WhyhastheUntiedStateshadsuchalongexpansionsinthe1990s?Whathasbeentheroleofmonetaryandfiscalpolicy?HowwilltheEuroaffectmonetarypolicyinEurope?Whataretheinteractionsbetweenthestockmarket,theforeignexchangemarket,a
23、ndeconomicactivity?IstheU.S.stockmarkettoohigh?CanthepoorperformanceofJapaninthe1990sbeattributedtothesharpdeclineintheJapanesestockmarketintheearly1990s?Whyisinflationsomuchlowerinthe1990sthaninearlierdecades?Whatissobadaboutinflation?Shouldcountriesaimforzeroinflation,asisnowthecaseinJapan?第28页/共3
24、6页第二十八页，共37页。1-4:LookingAhead2CouldthecurrentU.S.unemploymentratebetoolow?WhyisunemploymentsohighinEurope?WhyhastheJapaneseunemploymentratebeensolowforsomanyyears?Whydogrowthratesdiffersomuchacrosscountries,evenoverlongperiodsoftime?WhyhasJapangrownsomuchfasterthantheUnitedStatesandEuropeoverthelast
25、40years?WhatarethefactorsbehindtheAsianmiracle?Whyhasgrowthsloweddownsincethemid-1970sinmostrichcountries?第29页/共36页第二十九页，共37页。2003-6-2236谢谢大家(dji)观赏！第36页/共36页第三十六页，共37页。内容(nirng)总结1-1:The United States。1-1:The United States。Is Unemployment Too Low。第1页/共36页。Output growth rate。1-2:The European Union。1-3:Japan and East Asia 1。GDP in China 1952-2002。Appendix: GDP in China 1952-2002。谢谢(xi xie)大家观赏第三十七页，共37页。
