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1、Critical Sector Data UpdateResearch Department行业关键数据更新研究部23 October 2012Sector: Oil & Gas, PetrochemicalsFigure 1 1-Y Crude Oil prices一年国际油价Figure 2 10-Y Crude Oil prices十年国际油价150BrentOilspot(USD/barrel)160BrentOilspot(USD/barrel)YTDBrent Oilspot1.71%WTI Oil Dubai Oilspot Spot-10.22% 2.03%130WTIOils
2、pot(USD/barrel)DubaiOilSpot(USD/barrel)120WTIOilspot(USD/barrel)DubaiOilSpot(USD/barrel)YTD YOY1.0%1.3%3.6%wowmomyoy52w H / L-4.9%-1.6%-0.7%128.1 /88.99-3.6%-4.2%1.7%109.49 /77.69-3.4%-1.0%1.3%124.02 /89.211090804070Oct11Jan12Apr12Jul12Oct12020022003200420052006200720082009201020112012Source: Bloomb
3、ergFigure 3 Domestic Gasoline & DieselRetail Price Cap国内汽油柴油最高零售价11,000Source: BloombergGasolineDieselGasoline (RMB /Tonne)(RMB/Tonne)(RMB/Tonne)10,000Diesel (RMB /Tonne)YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L6.17%3.00%0.0%0.0%17.2%10011 /8733-2.71%3.02%0.0%0.0%17.9%9171 /79549,0008,0007,0006,0005,000Oct-09Apr
4、-10Oct-10Apr-11Oct-11Apr-12Oct-12Source: China NDRCSector: Nonferrous Metals, Precious MetalsFigure 4 1-Y Gold prices & Dollar index一年黄金价格与美元指数Figure 5 10-Y Gold prices & Dollarindex十年黄金价格与美元指数YTDGold price10.22%Dollar Index(RHS)-0.76%2,0001,750Gold price (USD/Oz)Dollar Index (RHS)87842,0001,700Gold
5、 price (USD/Oz)Dollar Index (RHS)10510095YTD YOY7.6%6.3%1,400wowmom-0.8%-2.8%-0.2%0.3%1,500811,10090yoy52w H / L4.9%1795 / 15404.2%84 / 757880085801,25075500751,000Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12722002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201270Source: BloombergSource: BloombergSee
6、the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 1 of 21000Figure 6&7 1-Y Copper Prices & Stock一年铜价格与库存LME Copper Inventory (Tonne)Figure 8&9 10-Y Copper Prices & Stock十年铜价格与库存LME Copper Inventory (Tonne)550,000500,000LME Copper Price (USD/Tonne - RHS)11,00010,00
7、01,000,000900,000800,000LME Copper Price (USD/Tonne - RHS)12,00010,000450,000700,0008,000LME Copper LME CopperPrice (RHS) Inventory400,0009,000600,000500,0006,000YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy5.46%-12.6%-1.0%-3.2%11.2%-40.44%N/A4.1%0.6%-51.1%350,000300,000250,0008,0007,000400,000300,000200,000100,0004,0002,000
8、52w H / L8740.25 /7210444275 /210725200,000Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-126,00002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012SHFE Copper Inventory (Tonne)SHFE Copper Inventory (Tonne)240,000SHFE Copper price (RMB/Tonne - RHS)80,000240,000SHFE Copper price (RMB/Tonne - RHS)100,000SHFES
9、HFE200,00070,000200,00080,000CopperCopper160,000price (RHS)Inventory160,00060,000YTDYTD YOYwow5.14%-15.7%-1.1%111.02%N/A8.4%120,00060,000120,00080,00040,000momyoy-3.1%12.0%17.9%124.2%80,00050,00040,00020,00052w H / L61490 /53280227276 /5765540,000Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12 Oct-1240,0000200
10、3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: BloombergFigure 10&11 1-Y Aluminum Prices &Stock一年铝价格与库存Source: BloombergFigure 12&13 10-Y Aluminum Prices &Stock十年铝价格与库存LMEAluminumLME Aluminum5,300,0005,100,000LME Aluminum Inventory (Tonne)LME Aluminum Price (USD/Tonne - RHS)2,8006,000,0005,00
11、0,000LME Aluminum Inventory (Tonne)LME Aluminum Price (USD/Tonne - RHS)4,0003,500YTDYTD YOYwowPrice (RHS)-2.48%-17.8%0.4%Inventory1.38%N/A-0.5%4,900,0004,700,0002,6002,4004,000,0003,000,0003,0002,500mom-7.9%-0.8%yoy-9.7%10.2%4,500,0002,2002,000,0002,00052w H / L2353 / 1836 5125800 / 45305504,300,000
12、4,100,0002,0001,8001,000,00002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121,5001,000Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12SHFE Aluminum Inventory (Tonne)550,000SHFE Aluminum Inventory (Tonne)SHFE Aluminum price (RMB/Tonne - RHS)19,500600,000SHFE Aluminum price (RMB/Tonne - RHS)25,000SHFE500,
13、00022,500AluminumSHFE Aluminum450,00018,500price (RHS)Inventory400,00020,000YTD-2.46%108.86%350,00017,500YTD YOY-6.8%N/A300,00017,500wowmom0.1%-1.8%5.9%12.2%250,00016,500200,00015,000yoy-4.1%268.0%52w H / L16535 / 15040434363 / 113329150,00015,500100,00012,50050,00014,50010,000Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-
14、12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-122003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: BloombergSource: BloombergSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 2 of 2105Figure 14&15 1-Y Zinc Prices & Stock一年锌价格与库存LME Zinc Inventory (Tonne)Figure 16&17 10-Y Zinc Price
15、s & Stock十年锌价格与库存LME Zinc Inventory (Tonne)LME ZincPrice(RHS)LME ZincInventory1,200,0001,150,0001,100,000LME Zinc Price (USD/Tonne - RHS)3,0002,8001,200,0001,000,000LME Zinc Price (USD/Tonne - RHS)5,0004,000YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L2.17%-13.6%-1.5%-11.2%2.6%2205 / 175635.83%N/A7.7%21.3%40.4%11166
16、25 /7361501,050,0001,000,000950,000900,000850,000800,000750,000700,0002,6002,4002,2002,0001,800800,000600,000400,000200,0003,0002,0001,000650,000Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-121,60002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012SHFE Zinc Inventory (Tonne)430,000SHFE Zinc price (RMB/Ton
17、ne - RHS)22,000500,000SHFE Zinc Inventory (Tonne)SHFE Zinc price (RMB/Tonne - RHS)23,000400,00020,000400,00020,000SHFE Zincprice SHFE Zinc370,00018,000300,00017,000(RHS) InventoryYTD1.49%-17.55%340,00016,000200,00014,000YTD YOY-13.5%N/Awowmom-1.0%-4.2%-0.9%-0.7%310,00014,000100,00011,000yoy5.3%-21.4
18、%52w H / L16180 /14210387381 /296656280,000Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-1212,0000200820092010201120128,000Source: BloombergFigure 18 1-Y Nickel Prices & Stock一年镍价格与库存LME Nickel Inventory (Tonne)Source: BloombergFigure 19 10-Y Nickel Prices & Stock十年镍价格与库存LME Nickel Inventory (Tonne)LME Ni
19、ckelPrice LME Nickel(RHS) Inventory145,000135,000LME Nickel Price (USD/Tonne - RHS)29,00027,000180,000150,000LME Nickel Price (USD/Tonne - RHS)60,00050,000YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L-9.41%-26.1%-0.8%-4.5%-9.8%21800 /1525041.59%N/A0.9%5.4%42.5%128544 /83160125,000115,000105,00095,00025,00023,00021,0
20、0019,000120,00090,00060,00030,00040,00030,00020,00010,00085,00017,0000075,00015,0002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12Source: BloombergFigure 20 10-Y China Growth Rate ofValue-Added of Industry十年中国工业增加值增长速度25Source: BloombergCHVAIOYIndex20%YTDw
21、owmomyoy52w H / LN/AN/A0.3 ppt-4.6 ppt13.8 / 8.9151002003200420052006200720082009201020112012Note: Latest data is 9/2012.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 3 of 21160160Sector: Steel, Cement and Cons
22、truction MaterialsFigure 21 1-Y Steel prices一年钢材价格Figure 22 8-Y Steel prices八年钢材价格Wire Rod Hot RolledColdRolled20mmMediumPlate7,0006,000Wire Rod (RMB/Tonne)Hot Rolled (RMBTonne)Cold Rolled (RMB/Tonne)20mm Medium Plate (RMB/Tonne)8,000Wire Rod (RMB/Tonne)Hot Rolled (RMBTonne)Cold Rolled (RMB/Tonne)20
23、mm Medium Plate (RMB/Tonne)YTDYTD YOYwowmom-14.44%-17.3%-1.1%1.6%-11.64%-16.5%0.3%2.7%-13.65%-14.7%-0.4%1.3%-13.72%-15.4%-0.5%0.0%5,0006,000yoy52w H / L-15.9% -10.0%4511 / 3413 4395 / 3253-16.1%4379 / 0-17.5%4430 / 33244,0004,0003,0002,000Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-122005200620072008200
24、9201020112012Source: BloombergFigure 23 2-Y Cement prices二年国内水泥价格Source: BloombergNorthChina North East East ChinaCentralChinaYTD-13.75%2.57%-18.54%-14.59%YTD YOYwowmomyoy-14.28%-0.3%3.1%-17.8%0.14%0.0%0.0%-4.4%-8.18%2.8%8.8%-19.0%-9.82%0.0%7.0%-17.1%550500450North China (RMB/Tonne)East China (RMB/T
25、onne)South China (RMB/Tonne)North West (RMB/Tonne)North East (RMB/Tonne)Central China (RMB/Tonne)South West (RMB/Tonne)52w H/L365 / 289458 / 422404 / 286400 / 308400SouthChinaSouthWestNorthWest350YTD3.71%-24.37%-19.98%YTD YOYwow-11.25%10.3%-10.91%-3.0%-11.78%-0.2%300250mom13.2%1.4%-0.5%Oct-10Feb-11J
26、un-11Oct-11Feb-12Jun-12Oct-12yoy52w H/L-6.1%382 / 290-8.7%349 / 310-15.0%374 / 315Source: China Cement AssociationSector: Aviation, AutomobilesFigure 24 1-Y Jet Fuel Prices一年航油价格Figure 25 10-Y Jet Fuel Prices十年航油价格200BrentOilspot(USD/barrel)Brent Oilspot Singapore JetBrentOilspot(USD/barrel)Singapor
27、eJetFuel(USD/barrel)SingaporeJetFuel(USD/barrel)YTDYTD YOYwow(USD/barrel)2.93%1.0%-4.3%Fuel7.98%1.3%-0.7%140120momyoy-0.5%0.5%1.7%4.5%1208052w H / L128.1 / 88.99 137.79 / 106.151004080Oct11Jan12Apr12Jul12Oct1202003200420052006200720082009201020112012Source: BloombergSource: BloombergSee the last pag
28、e for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 4 of 219876.2Figure 26 1-Y USD/CNY Index & NDF一年美元人民币汇率及 NDFFigure 27 10-Y USD/CNY Index & NDF十年美元人民币汇率及 NDFYTDYTD YOYUSD/CNY0.65%-2.4%NDF0.25%-0.2%6.76.6USD/CNYIndex12MUSD/CNYNDF8.5USD/CNYIndex12MUSD/CNYNDFwowmom-0.2%0.9%0.2%
29、0.8%6.57.5yoy52w H / L1.9% 0.4%6.3885 / 6.2514 6.455 / 6.25756.46.36.562003200420052006200720082009201020112012Oct11Jan12Apr12Jul12Oct12Source: BloombergFigure 28 1-Y Shanghai Rubber Prices一年上海橡胶价格Source: BloombergRubber45,000RubberShanghai(RMB/MT)YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / LShanghai-9.60%-27.5%-0.5
30、%2.4%-10.4%29740 /2099040,00035,00030,00025,00020,000Oct11Jan12Apr12Jul12Oct12Source: BloombergFigure 29 6-Y RPK & PLF六年收入客公里及客座率Figure 30 5-Y RTK & LF五年总收入吨公里及总载运率RPK (Mnpassenger-RTK (Mntonne-9085PLF (%)RPK (Million passenger-kilometers) - RHS50,00045,0009085LF (%)RFTK (Million tonne-kilometers) -
31、 RHS6,0005,000YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / Lkilometers)12.02%N/A2.5%13.6%47789 / 36889kilometers)5.68%N/A2.1%8.4%5579 / 4435PLF (pps)-0.27%N/A50.0%-60.0%84 / 79LF (pps)-0.95%N/A40.0%60.0%74 / 6880757040,00035,00030,00025,0008075704,0003,0002,000651,0006520,0006006020072008200920102011201215,0002008200920
32、1020112012Note: Latest data is 8/2012Source: Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaFigure 31 5-Y PLF & Ticket Price五年客座率及航空票价Source: Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaTicket Price9085PLF (%)Ticket Price Index (RHS)135125YTDIndex(RHS)0.59%80115YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L1.72%N/A-7.8%1.3%129 / 98757
33、0656010595857520082009201020112012Note: Latest data is 8/2012Source: Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 5 of 21Figure 32 6-Y Car Sales六年汽车销量Figure 33 6-Y Car Sales YoY六年汽车销量增长（同比）YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / LAut
34、o sales3.17%N/A8.2%-1.7%1838572 /1379366PV sales6.68%N/A7.9%-0.3%1399966 /1120206CV sales-8.79%N/A9.2%-7.6%438606 /2291981,900,0001,700,0001,500,0001,300,0001,100,000900,000700,000Auto salesPV salesCV sales200%150%100%50%Auto sales YoYCV sales YoYPV sales YoY500,000300,000100,0000%-50%20072008200920
35、1020112012200720082009201020112012Note: Latest data is 9/2012Domestic JetFuel Ex-factory price(RMB/Tonne)Source: China Association of AutomobileManufacturersFigure 34 3-Y Domestic Jet FuelEx-factory price三年国内航油出厂价格Dom estic Jet Fuel Ex-factory price (RMB/Tonne)9,000Source: China Association of Autom
36、obileManufacturersYTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L2.20%6.69%0.0%10.6%7.7%8061 / 67178,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,000Oct-10Apr-11Oct-11Apr-12Oct-12Source: China NDRCSector: Shipping & Logistics, PortsFigure 35 1-Y BDI一年波罗的海干散货运价指数Figure 36 10-Y BDI十年波罗的海干散货运价指数BDI2,500BDI12,000BDIYTD-41.89%YTD YOYwowmomyoy
37、52w H / L-39.3%7.3%30.5%-53.1%2161 / 6472,0001,5001,0009,0006,0003,000500Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-1202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: BloombergSource: BloombergSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 6 of 217040Figure 37 1-
38、Y BDTI & BCTI一年波罗的海原油运价指数及波罗的海成品油运价指数Figure 38 10-Y BDTI & BCTI十年波罗的海原油运价指数及波罗的海成品油运价指数BDTIBCTI1,100BDTIBCTI3,500BDTIBCTIYTDYTD YOYwowmom-27.31%-7.5%1.2%5.3%-27.86%-14.0%5.5%2.5%1,0009003,0002,5002,000yoy52w H / L-20.4% -4.5%939 / 604 908 / 5538007001,5001,000600500500Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-120
39、2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: BloombergFigure 39 1-Y BUNKER一年彭博 380 Centistoke 船用燃油价格/新加坡Source: BloombergFigure 40 10-Y BUNKER十年彭博 380 Centistoke 船用燃油价格/新加坡BUNKER800BUNKER (USD/Metric Tonne)800BUNKER (USD/Metric Tonne)YTD-6.44%YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L5.8%-0.5%-3.5%-5.2%7
40、45 / 567.5700600500600400200400Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-1202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: BloombergSource: BloombergFigure418-YChinaPMI:Manufacturing - New Export OrderIndex八年中国采购经理指数（制造业）:新出口订单China PMI:Manufacturing -New ExportChinaPMI:ManufacturingNewExportOrderIndexY
41、TDOrder IndexN/A60wowmomyoy52w H / LN/A2.2 ppt-4.1%52.2 / 45.650302020052006200720082009201020112012Note: Latest data is 9/2012Source: China Federation of Logistics & PurchasingSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 7 of 21Figure 42 2-Y China Import
42、 & Export(Seasonally Adjusted, YoY)两年中国月度进出口值增长（季节调整：同比）China Monthly Export (Seasonally Adjusted, YoY)Figure 43 2-Y China Import & Export(Seasonally Adjusted, MoM)两年中国月度进出口值增长（季节调整：环比）China Monthly Export (Seasonally Adjusted, MoM)China Monthly Import (Seasonally Adjusted, MoM)YTDChinaMonthlyExport
43、(SeasonallyAdjusted)N/AChinaMonthlyImport(SeasonallyAdjusted)N/AChinaMonthlyExport &Import(SeasonallyAdjusted)N/A70%60%50%40%30%China Monthly Import (Seasonally Adjusted, YoY)China Monthly Export & Import (Seasonally Adjusted, YoY)40%30%20%10%0%China Monthly Export & Import (Seasonally Adjusted, MoM
44、)wowN/AN/AN/Amomyoy52w H / L10.9%11.4%21/213.8%2.3%25/(3)12.2%7.0%23/(1)20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-10%-40%Sep-10Jan-11May-11Sep-11Jan-12May-12Sep-12Sep-10Jan-11May-11Sep-11Jan-12May-12Sep-12Note: Latest data is 9/2012Source: China CustomsFigure 44 1-Y CCBFI一年中国沿海(散货)运价指数Source: China CustomsFigure 45 5-Y
45、CCBFI五年中国沿海(散货)运价指数YTDChina costalbulk freightindex (CCBFI)-7.49%1,400China costal bulk freight index (CCBFI)3,5003,0002,500China costal bulk freight index (CCBFI)YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L-21.50%-0.9%-4.0%-18.5%1434 / 10321,2002,0001,5001,0001,000Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-1250020082009201020112012
46、Source: Shanghai Shipping ExchangeFigure 46 1-Y CCFI一年中国出口集装箱运价指数Source: Shanghai Shipping ExchangeFigure 47 5-Y CCFI五年中国出口集装箱运价指数Chinacontainerizedfreight index(CCFI)1,4001,3501,3001,2501,200China containerized freight index(CCFI)1,5001,300China containerized freight index(CCFI)YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy5
47、2w H / L33.66%17.04%-0.8%-4.7%23.7%1335 / 8811,1501,1001,0501,0009501,100900900850Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-1270020082009201020112012Source: Shanghai Shipping ExchangeSource: Shanghai Shipping ExchangeSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 8 of 21
48、atFigure 48 1-Y SCFI一年上海出口集装箱运价指数1,600Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)ShanghaiContainerizedFreight Index(SCFI)1,5001,400YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L23.98%23.51%-2.3%-8.6%25.1%1501 / 8541,3001,2001,1001,000900800Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Source: Shanghai Shipping ExchangeSector: Coal,
49、ElectricityFigure 49 5-Y Thermal Coal FOB atQinhuangdao五年秦皇岛动力煤平仓价Figure 50 5-Y Coal InventoryQinhuangdao五年秦皇岛煤炭库存大同优混Datong 5,800 Kcal/kg山西优混Shanxi 5,500 Kcal/kg1,000Total Inventory (10,000 Tonne)5,8005,5005,0004,5001,200山西大混普通混煤YTDKcal/kg-17.16%Kcal/kg-17.72%Kcal/kg-17.39%Kcal/kg-20.34%1,000Shanxi
50、 5,000 Kcal/kgNormal 4,500 Kcal/kg800YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L-9.93%0.0%0.0%-22.7%905 / 670-11.02%0.0%2.4%-24.0%860 / 615-11.85%0.9%2.7%-24.0%755 / 510-12.76%0.0%2.2%-28.2%655 / 425800600400600400200200TotalInventoryForDomesticSale0Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-120Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12YTDwowm
51、omyoy52w H / L-28.27%-3.5%-19.2%-8.7%946 / 518-28.27%-3.5%-19.2%-8.7%946 / 518Source: Figure 51 5-Y Australia BJ ThermalSpot Price五年澳洲 BJ 动力煤现货价格Source: Figure 52 5-Y Monthly China PowerGeneration YOY五年中国月度发电量增长（同比）Australia BJ Thermal SpotPrice (USD/Tonne)200Australia BJ Thermal Spot Price (USD/Ton
52、ne)%5020082009201020112012YTD-30.19%YTD YOY18.54%40wowmomyoy52w H / LMonthlyPowerProductionYoY-3.2%-9.9%-31.5%118 / 8116012080403020100-10YTD YOYwow3.60%N/A0Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12-20Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Decmomyoy52w H / LN/A1.5%437 / 349Note: Latest data in Figure 52 i
53、s 9/2012Source: Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, ChinaElectricity CouncilSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 9 of 21-153000MonthlyFigure 53 5-Y Monthly China PowerConsumption YOY五年中国月度用电量增长（同比）Figure 54 5-Y Monthly China Utilizatio
54、nHours for Thermal Capacity五年中国火电装机月度利用小时PowerConsumptionYoY%3020082009201020112012Hours50020082009201020112012YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / LYTD YOYwowmomyoy2.90%N/AN/A5.1%456 / 363Monthly ThermalCapacity UtilisationHours-7.00%N/A-10.4%-13.9%2520151050-5-10Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec4
55、50400350Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec52w H / LNote: Latest data is 9/2012#N/ASource: National Bureau of Statistics of China, ChinaElectricity CouncilSector: PropertyFigure 55 10-Y Domestic PropertySector YoY Data （Accumulative）十年商品房投资，新开工及销售增长（累计同比）InvestmentGFA newlyconstructedGFA
56、 sold(Area)120%Investment YoYGFA newly constructed YoYGFA sold YoYYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L15.42%N/A6.4%14.2%N/A-8.63%N/A-36.6%-24.0%N/A-3.99%N/A25.0%-3.6%N/A100%80%60%Sales (Residential) YoYCommodity Building Sold YoYCommodity Building Area Sold (Residential) YoY40%CommodityCommodityBuilding SoldBu
57、ilding AreaSoldSales(Residential)20%YTD YOYwow2.65%N/A(Residential)-4.27%N/A3.35%N/A0%momyoy19.4%4.9%25.2%-1.6%19.6%9.4%-20%200320042005200620072008200920102011201252w H / LN/AN/AN/ANote: 2012 data is from Jan to SepSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSector: TelecomFigure 56 10-Y Telecom
58、Revenue十年通信收入Monthly1,200Monthly Telecom Revenue (RMB 100 Million)TelecomRevenue (RMB100 Million)1,000800YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L9.04%9.55%N/A2.7%8.3%956 / 7896004002002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Note: Latest data is 8/2012Source: Ministry of Industry and InformationTechnolo
59、gy of the PRCSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 10 of 2135%30%353025302520151015-1510-20Figure 57 8-Y Telephone Call: MobileMinutes (Cumulative YoY)八年移动电话通话时长，月度累计增长（同比）Figure 58 9-Y Tele Users YoY九年月度通信用户增长（同比）No. ofTelephone call: mobile (incl
60、 Local): YTD YoYTelephone call:telephone No. ofcall: internal telephone call:network: internalNo. of telephone call: internal network:inter-regional: YTDYoYNo. of telephone call: internal network: intra-regional:Total Tele Users YoYFixed-line Users YoYMobile Users YoYmobile (inclLocal), millionminut
61、esinter- network: intra-regional regional(million)(million)90%YTD YoY25%20%YTDwowmomyoy52w H / LN/AN/A2.8%13.7%221168 / 205874N/AN/A3.0%-16.1%4477 / 3126N/AN/A3.4%-13.6%28218 / 2091265%40%15%15%10%5%0%Total Tele Mobile UsersFixed-line-10%-5%YTDUsers (million)N/A(million) Users (million)N/A N/A-35%20
62、052006200720082009201020112012-10%200420052006200720082009201020112012wowmomyoy52w H / LN/A0.7%10.2%1354 / 1241N/A1.0%14.1%1072 / 952N/A-0.4%-2.3%288 / 282Note: Latest data is 8/2012Sector: Health CareMedical Manufacturing: Medical Manufacturing:Source: Ministry of Industry and InformationTechnology
63、 of the PRCFigure 59 1-Y Medical ManufacturingTotal Revenue & Profit Growth(Cumulative YoY%)一年医疗制造业主营业务收入及利润总额增长（累计同比）Source: Ministry of Industry and InformationTechnology of the PRCFigure 60 1-Y Chemical Bulk DrugsTotal Revenue & Profit Growth(Cumulative YoY%)一年化学药品原药制造业主营业务收入及利润总额增长（累计同比）YTDwowmo
64、myoy52w H / LTotal Revenue Growth(Cumulative YoY%)N/AN/A-69.6%19.1%30.3 / 19.1Total Profit Growth(Cumulative YoY%)N/AN/A-99.8%0.0%23.5 / 11.5Medical Manufacturing: Total RevenueGrowth (Cumulative YoY%)Medical Manufacturing: Total Profit Growth(Cumulative YoY%)Chemical Bulk Drugs: Total RevenueGrowth
65、 (Cumulative YoY%)Chemical Bulk Drugs: Total Prof it Growth(Cumulative YoY%)5200-5Chemical Bulk Drugs:Total Revenue GrowthChemical Bulk Drugs:Total Profit Growth-10YTDwowmomyoy52w H / L(Cumulative YoY%)N/AN/A-66.2%13.1%24.3 / 10.9(Cumulative YoY%)N/AN/A-65.3%0.3%21 / -18.4Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12
66、 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12Note: Latest data in figure 60 is 7/2012Source: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 11 of 213
67、0257065605454040Figure 61 1-YChemical FinishedFigure 62 1-YTCM Raw MaterialDrugs Total Revenue & Profit Growth(Cumulative YoY%)一年化学药品制剂制造业主营业务收入及利润总额增长（累计同比）Processing Total Revenue & ProfitGrowth (Cumulative YoY%)一年中药饮片加工业主营业务收入及利润总额增长（累计同比）Chemical FinishedDrugs: Total RevenueChemical FinishedDrug
68、s: Total ProfitYTDwowmomyoy52w H / LGrowth (CumulativeYoY%)N/AN/A-66.1%22.4%25 / 18.8Growth (CumulativeYoY%)N/AN/A-73.9%19.8%21.4 / 2.220Chemical Finished Drugs: Total RevenueGrowth (Cumulative YoY%)Chemical Finished Drugs: Total Prof itGrowth (Cumulative YoY%)55TCM Raw Material Processing: TotalRev
69、enue Growth (Cumulative YoY%)TCM Raw Material Processing: Total ProfitGrowth (Cumulative YoY%)50TCM Raw Material TCM Raw MaterialProcessing: Total Processing: TotalRevenue Growth Profit Growth1510454035(CumulativeYoY%)(CumulativeYoY%)3025YTDN/AN/A020wowN/AN/AJul-11Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12
70、Jul-12Jul-11Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12momyoy52w H / L-66.3%29.6%59.4 / 28.8-65.8%28.8%65.3 / 28.5Note: Latest data is 7/2012Source: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaFigure 63 1-YTCM FinishedFigure 64 1-YBiochemical FinishedTCM Finishe
71、dMedicines Total Revenue & ProfitGrowth (Cumulative YoY%)一年中成药制造业主营业务收入及利润总额增长（累计同比）Drugs Total Revenue & Profit Growth(Cumulative YoY%)一年生物、生化制品制造业主营业务收入及利润总额增长（累计同比）TCM FinishedMedicines: TotalMedicines:Total ProfitRevenue GrowthGrowthTCM Finished Medicines: Total Revenue GrowthYTDwowmomyoy52w H /
72、 L(CumulativeYoY%)N/AN/A-65.4%20.0%37.5 / 20BiochemicalFinished Drugs:Total RevenueGrowth(CumulativeYoY%)N/AN/A-67.4%24.8%41.5 / 22.4BiochemicalFinishedDrugs: TotalProfit Growth35302520(Cumulative YoY%)TCM Finished Medicines: Total Profit Growth(Cumulative YoY%)302010Biochemical Finished Drugs: Tota
73、lRevenue Growth (Cumulative YoY%)Biochemical Finished Drugs: Total ProfitGrowth (Cumulative YoY%)(Cumulative(CumulativeYoY%)YoY%)150YTDN/AN/AJul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12Jul-11Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12wowmomyoy52w H / LN/A-67.6%15.1%31.8 / 15.1N/A-66.8%13.5%28.8 /
74、6.5Note: Latest data is 7/2012Source: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 12 of 2155Figure651-YHealthCareFigure 66 1-YMonthly Medicine TotalConsumables Total Reve
75、nue & ProfitGrowth (Cumulative YoY%)一年卫生材料及医药用品制造业主营业务收入及利润总额增长（累计同比）Revenue of Retail Sales (YoY)一年中西药品零售额增长（同比）Health CareConsumables:Total RevenueHealth CareConsumables:Total ProfitGrowthGrowthHealth Care Consumables: Total Revenue(CumulativeYoY%)(CumulativeYoY%)Growth (Cumulative YoY%)Health Car
76、e Consumables: Total Profit45%Monthly Medicine Total Revenue of RetailSales (YoY)YTDwowmomyoy52w H / LN/AN/A-62.9%18.4%40.3 / 18.4N/AN/A-67.0%26.4%43.1 / 26.45045403530Growth (Cumulative YoY%)40%35%30%MonthlyMedicine TotalRevenue ofRetail Sales(YoY)2520151025%20%15%YTDN/AJul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12
77、Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12Sep-11 Nov-11Jan-12Mar-12 May-12Jul-12Sep-12wowmomyoy52w H / LN/A12.1%29.9%37.2 / 22.1Note: Latest data in figure 65 is 7/2012; Latest data infigure 66 is 9/2012PriceSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaFigure 67 2-Y Vitamin C Prices两年维他命 C 价格Source: National Bureau of S
78、tatistics of ChinaFigure 68 4-Y Penicillin Industry Salt Prices四年青霉素工业盐价格YTD(RMB/kg)-7.69%60Vitamin C Price (RMB/kg)100Penicillin Industry Salt Price (RMB/BOU)YTD YOY-32.85%wowmomyoy52w H / L0.0%0.0%-33.3%36 / 24PenicillinIndustry Salt5040308060Price(RMB/BOU)YTDYTD YOYwow-6.56%-12.99%N/A20Oct-10Apr-
79、11Oct-11Apr-12Oct-1240Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Sep-12momyoy52w H / L1.8%-6.6%61 / 54Note: Latest data in figure 68 is 9/2012PriceSource: Figure 69 4-Y 7-ACA Prices四年 7-ACA-酶法价格酶法价格Source: Figure 70 4-Y Amoxicillin Prices四年阿莫西林价格(RMB/kg)1,1007-ACA Price (RMB/kg)350Amoxicillin Price (RMB/kg)YTD6.60%YTD
80、 YOYwowmom-15.78%N/A1.9%1,000900yoy52w H / L6.6%550 / 435800250700Price(RMB/kg)600YTD-2.50%YTD YOY-1.40%500wowmomyoyN/A-1.5%8.3%400Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Sep-12150Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Sep-1252w H / L200 / 164Note: Latest data is 9/2012Source: Source: See the last page for disclaimerCritical Sect
81、or Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 13 of 21130Figure 71 2-Y Chengdu ChineseMedicine Raw Material Price Index两年成都中药材价格指数Chengdu ChineseMedicine RawMaterial PriceChengdu Chinese Medicine Raw Material Price IndexYTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / LIndex2.34%-4.98%0.9%-0.5%5.1%120.2 / 107.712011010090
82、Oct-10Feb-11Jun-11Oct-11Feb-12Jun-12Oct-12Source: Ministry of Commerce of the PRCSector: Household ProductsFigure 72 1-Y NBSK & BHK Prices一年北方漂白软木牛皮浆及硬木牛皮浆价格Figure 73 10-Y NBSK & BHK Prices十年北方漂白软木牛皮浆及硬木牛皮浆价格1,050NBSK(USD/MetricTonne)BHK(USD/MetricTonne)1,100NBSK(USD/MetricTonne)BHK(USD/MetricTonne)
83、NBSKBHK1,000YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L-6.81%-16.6%0.2%1.6%-16.3%922.03 /762.1815.67%-14.2%0.4%0.0%1.2%786.03 /648.31950900850800750900700700650500600Oct11Jan12Apr12Jul12Oct123002003200420052006200720082009201020112012Source: BloombergFigure 74 1-Y OCC Prices一年美国废纸价格Source: BloombergFigure 75 5-Y O
84、CC Prices五年美国废纸价格OCC180OCC (EUR/Metric Tonne)180OCC (EUR/Metric Tonne)160YTD-4.32%YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L-14.5%0.5%2.0%-24.6%148.5 /102.46160140120140120100806040201000Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-1220082009201020112012Source: BloombergSource: BloombergSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Secto
85、r Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 14 of 2122Sector: Consumer (Food & Beverage)Figure 76 2-Y Raw Milk Prices两年原奶价格Figure 77 7-Y Flour Price Index七年面粉价格指数Raw Milk(RMB/kg)3.4Raw Milk (RMB/kg)114Flour Price IndexYTD YoYwowmom2.51%0.0%0.6%3.33.2110yoy52w H / L2.5%3.3 / 3.21Flour Price3.13.01061
86、02Index YoYYTDN/A2.998wowmomyoy52w H / LN/AN/A2.5%111.3 / 102.22.8Oct-10Feb-11Jun-11Oct-11Feb-12Jun-12Oct-129420052006200720082009201020112012Note: Latest data in Figure 77 is 8/2012Hog PricesSource: Ministry of Agriculture of the PRCFigure 78 2-Y Hog Prices两年生猪价格Source: National Bureau of Statistic
87、s of ChinaFigure 79 2-Y Hog Inventory两年生猪存栏YTD YoYwowmomyoy52w H / L(RMB/kg)-12.98%-0.9%-1.5%-22.1%18.8 / 13.72018Hog Prices (RMB/kg)48,00047,00046,000Hog Inventory (10K heads)16YTDHog Inventory(10K heads)-0.18%1445,000wowmomN/A1.3%1244,000yoy52w H / L0.2%47625 / 4584610Oct-10Feb-11Jun-11Oct-11Feb-1
88、2Jun-12Oct-1243,000Sep-10Mar-11Sep-11Mar-12Sep-12Note: Latest data in figure 79 is 9/2012Source: China Animal Agriculture AssociationFigure 80 1-Y Palm Oil Prices一年棕榈油价格Source: The Central Peoples Government of the PRCFigure 81 10-Y Palm Oil Prices十年棕榈油价格4,000Palm Oil Price (MYR/Metric Tonne)4,500Pa
89、lm Oil Price (MYR/Metric Tonne)Palm OilPriceYTD YoYwowmomyoy52w H / L-8.57%-0.1%-11.1%-16.5%3645 / 20833,5003,0002,5003,5002,5001,5002,000Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-125002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Malaysia Derivatives ExchangeSource: Malaysia Derivatives ExchangeSee th
90、e last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 15 of 2165Figure 82 1-Y PET Resin Prices一年聚酯切片价格Figure 83 4-Y PET Resin Prices四年聚酯切片价格14,000PET Resin Price (RMB/Tonne)14,000PET ResinPrice13,00012,000YTD YoYwowmom-19.64%-1.4%-2.4%12,00011,00010,000yoy52w H / L-13.7
91、%11550/860010,0008,000PET Resin Price (RMB/Tonne)9,0008,0006,0004,000Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-122009201020112012Source: www.tbs-Figure 84 1-Y Sugar Prices一年白糖价格Source: www.tbs-Figure 85 10-Y Sugar Prices十年白糖价格Sugar Price - Sugar Price -Liuzhou Kunming8,0007,500Sugar Price - Liuzhou (RMB/Tonne)Sug
92、ar Price - Kunming (RMB/Tonne)9,000Sugar Price - Liuzhou (RMB/Tonne)Sugar Price - Kunming (RMB/Tonne)(RMB/Tonne) (RMB/Tonne)7,500YTD YoY-14.15%-13.87%7,000wowmom3.4%2.6%2.9%2.0%6,5006,000yoy52w H / L-18.0% -19.9%7320 / 5630 7235 / 55156,0005,5005,0004,5003,0001,500Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-122003
93、2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Kunming Commodity Wholesale MarketCenterFigure 86 2-Y Soybean Oil Prices两年豆油价格Source: Kunming Commodity Wholesale MarketCenterFigure 87 2-Y Rice Prices两年大米价格YTDYTD YOYSoybean Oil:5L Pack0.90%4.23%Soybean Oil(RHS)-7.92%0.11%1312Soybean Oil: 5L Pack
94、(RMB/L)Soybean Oil (RMB/ton) (RHS)10,50010,000Rice Price (RMB/kg)wowN/A1.5%momyoy52w H / L0.2%1.5%12.3 / 12.1-5.7%-0.9%10090 / 8522119,5009,000410Rice Price8,500YTDYTD YOY4.44%1.55%wowN/A98,0003mom1.1%Oct-10Feb-11Jun-11Oct-11Feb-12Jun-12Oct-12Oct-10Apr-11Oct-11Apr-12Oct-12yoy52w H / L2.7%5.65 / 5.37
95、Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China,Ministry of Agriculture of PRCSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 16 of 210Figure 88 4-Y Paddy Rice Prices四年稻谷价格Figure 89 8-Y White Wheat Prices Index八年小
96、麦价格YTDPaddy Rice31.02%2,7002,500Paddy Rice (RMB/Tonne)140White Wheat Price IndexYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L7.14%N/A-15.5%27.3%3087 / 19042,3002,1001,9001201001,70080White WheatPrice Index1,500YTD3.67%1,30060YTD YOY2.59%Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12200420052006200720082009201020112012wowmomyoy52w H /
97、L0.0%0.6%4.6%128 / 119.7Sector: BankingSource: Figure 90 1-Y YoY for M1, M2 & Loan一年 M1，M2 及金融机构各项贷款增长（同比）Source: Figure 91 10-Y YoY for M1, M2 & Loan十年 M1，M2 及金融机构各项贷款增长（同比）25M1 yoy %M2 yoy %Loans yoy %50M1 yoy %M2 yoy %Loans yoy %AugustM1M2LoansYTDwowmomyoyN/AN/AN/A7.3%N/AN/AN/A14.8%N/AN/AN/A16.3%
98、2015403052w H / L11.2 / 3.1 13.9 / 12.416.4 / 1510205100Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-120200220042006200820102012Note: Latest data is 9/2012Source: The Peoples Bank of ChinaFigure 92 5-Y New RMB Loan五年金融机构新增人民币贷款Source: The Peoples Bank of ChinaFigure 93 5-Y PBOC Money Operations五年央行公开市场操作YTDwowmomyoy
99、52w H / LNew RMBLoanN/AN/A15.4%13.6%10100 / 470020,00018,00016,00014,00012,000New RMB Loan (100Million)8,0006,0004,000PBOC money injection (100Million RMB)PBOC money withdrawl (100Million RMB)PBOC net injection (100Million RMB)10,000PBOCmoneyPBOCmoney8,0002,000injection(100MillionRMB)withdrawl(100Mi
100、llionRMB)PBOC netinjection6,0004,000YTDwowN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A2,000-2,000momyoy52w H / LN/AN/A4720 / 10N/A N/AN/A N/A3520 / 40 3650 / -35100200720082009201020112012-4,00020082009201020112012Note: Latest data in Figure 92 is 8/2012Source: The Peoples Bank of ChinaSource: WindSee the last page for discl
101、aimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 17 of 2155%Sector: Infrastructure, Toll RoadsFigure 94 1-Y Transportation FAI一年各项交通固定资产投资增长（同比）Figure 95 6-Y Transportation FAI六年各项交通固定资产投资增长（同比）InlandRailway (Cumulative YoY)Highway (Cumulative YoY)Railway (Cumulative YoY)Highway (Cumul
102、ative YoY)RailwayHighwayRiverInland River (Cumulative YoY)Inland River (Cumulative YoY)YTDwowmomyoy52w H / LN/AN/AN/A19.7%5767 / 326N/AN/AN/A0.6%125963600 /2742404N/AN/AN/A-15.0%3978900 /123065300%250%200%150%100%Coastal Area (Cumulative YoY)Others (Cumulative YoY)Total - Exclude Railway (Cumulative
103、 YoY)300%250%200%150%100%Coastal Area (Cumulative YoY)Others (Cumulative YoY)Total - Exclude Railway (Cumulative YoY)CoastalAreaOthersTotal -ExcludeRailway50%0%-50%50%0%-50%YTDwowN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A-100%-150%-100%-150%momN/AN/AN/ASep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12200720082009201020112012yoy52w H / L1.3%1
104、0069900 /17725814.8%4629700 /64940.4%144642100 /3049221Note: Latest data is 9/2012Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China,Ministry of RailwayFigure 96 1-Y Urban FAISource: National Bureau of Statistics of China,Ministry of RailwayFigure 97 10-Y Urban FAI一年城镇各产业固定资产投资增长（同比） 十年城镇各产业固定资产投资增长（同比）
105、Total Urban FAIPrimary Industry (Cumulative YoY)130%Total Urban FAIPrimary Industry (Cumulative YoY)YTDwowmomyoyTotal UrbanFAIN/AN/AN/A20.5%Primary SecondaryIndustry IndustryN/A N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A32.2%22.4%TertiaryIndustryN/AN/AN/A19.4%50%45%40%35%Secondary Industry (Cumulative YoY)Tertiary Industry (C
106、umulative YoY)90%50%Secondary Industry (Cumulative YoY)Tertiary Industry (Cumulative YoY)301933 /132263 /162877 /30%52w H / L211896792 / 30489391194625%20%15%10%10%-30%Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-122003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Note: Latest data is 9/2012Source: National Bureau of
107、 Statistics of ChinaFigure 98 1-Y Transportation Statistics一年公路旅客货运量统计Passenger Number YoYSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaFigure 99 8-Y Transportation Statistics八年公路旅客货运量统计Passenger Number YoYPassengerNumberFreightVolumePassengerturnoverFreightTurnover45%Freight Volume YoY45%Freight Vo
108、lume YoYPassenger Turnover YoYYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H / L8.37%N/A2.2%7.2%29.9 / 27.413.80%N/A1.6%13.1%28 / 22.310.37%N/A5.8%10.3%1594.8 /1403.515.26%N/A1.8%15.3%5219.6 /3976.640%35%30%25%Passenger Turnover YoYFreight Turnover YoY35%25%15%Freight Turnover YoY20%15%5%10%-5%5%0%-15%-5%Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12M
109、ay-12Aug-1220052006200720082009201020112012Note: Latest data is 8/2012Source: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 18 of 21Sector: Consumer (Apparel)Figure 100 1-Y
110、 China Cotton PriceIndex一年国内棉花价格指数YTDYTD YOYwowmomChina CottonIndex-2.52%-23.89%0.0%1.6%25,000China Cotton Indexyoy52w H / L-4.7%19955 / 1815620,00015,000Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Source: China Cotton AssociationData Last Updated at 22/10/2012数据最后更新于 2012 年 10 月 22 日See the last page for disclai
111、merCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 19 of 21Research Department 研究部Grace LiuFelix LuoRay ZhaoHarry ChenJerry PengWilson LiGary WongLeo Wu刘 谷罗 磊赵 睿陈欢瑜彭港祥李 伟黄家玮吴逸超Head of Research,Market strategy, PetrochemicalsInsurance, ConglomeratesSteel, Cement and ConstructionMaterialAvia
112、tion,Automobiles & ComponentsConsumer (Apparel)BankingToll Roads, InfrastructureCoal, Electricity主管，市场策略、石化保险、综合红筹钢铁、水泥建材航空、汽车消费(服装）银行公路、基建煤炭、电力(86755) 23976698 /(852) 25097516(86755) 23976685(86755) 23976755(86755) 23976683(86755) 23976722(86755) 23976870(852) 25092616(86755) 23976871Dundas Deng 邓京
113、晶Internet互联网(86755) 23976680Johnson Sun孙凤强Health care医药.hk(852) 25097589Noah Hudson Noah HudsonConsumer (Hotels), Small&Mid cap消费(酒店)，中小型股(86755) 2397 6684Sunny KwokFrank XuJason SongShirley GuSquare ChuiRoger SunKevin GuoDonald YuPeter ShengRicky LaiAnki Lam郭日升许智程宋 然古乔艺徐惠芳孙凌霄郭 勇余立峰盛 骅黎柏坚林婉琋Consumer
114、 (Food & Beverage,Household products)Consumer (Retailing)Shipping & Logistics, PortsMarket strategyFuturesTelecommunications Equipment,MachineryNonferrous Metals,Precious MetalsPropertyClean energy, Electric equipmentTelecommunication servicesResearch assistant消费（食品饮料、日用品）消费（零售）航运物流、港口市场策略期货机械、通信设备有
115、色金属、贵金属房地产清洁能源、电力设备电信研究助理.hk(852) 25092642(86755) 23976725(852) 2509 7768(86755) 23976718(852) 2509 2629(86755) 2397 6732(86755) 23976671(86755) 23976686(86755) 23976675(852) 2509 2603(852) 2509 2632See the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 20 of 21(1)
116、(2)(3)(4)Company Rating DefinitionThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 monthsRatingBuyAccumulateNeutralReduceSellDefinitionRelative Performance 15%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;or the fundamental outlook o
117、f the company or sector is favorable.Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.Relative Performance is -5% to -15%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.Relative Performance 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the secto
118、r is favorable.Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.Relative Performance -5%;or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTSThe Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Re
119、search Report.The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.Except for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited-H shares (01812) and China City Railway Transportation Technology Holdings CompanyLimited (08240), Guota
120、i Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentionedin this Research Report.Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships within the preceding 12 months for Jiangsu Expressway (00177)/ Huaneng Power
121、 (00902)/Active Group (01096)/ Kingworld Medicines Group Limited (01110)/China Titans Energy (02188)/Costin New Materials(02228)/China Modern Dairy Holdings (01117) /Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171)/ Xiangyu Dredging (00871)/ Billion (02299)/China ShippingContainer Lines Co. Ltd. - H Shares(02866) /China
122、 Hangqiao Group Limited(01378)/ China U-Ton Holdings Ltd.( 08232) / CW Group Holdings Ltd.(01322) /China ITS (Holdings) Co., Ltd.(01900) / Merry Garden Holdings Ltd. (01237) /Lijun International Pharmaceutical (Holding) Co.Ltd.(02005) /Xiezhong International Holdings Limited(03663)mentioned in this
123、Research Report.DISCLAIMERThis Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong)Limited (Guotai Junan). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research
124、reports, includinginvestment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily).Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by
125、sales persons,dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary toopinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.Though best effort has been made t
126、o ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does notguarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates andforecasts derived from the assumptions of the futur
127、e political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, souncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consulttheir own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.Thi
128、s Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in anyjurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guota
129、i Junanand its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2012 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved.27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queens Road Central, Hong Kong.Tel.: (852) 2509-9118Fax: (852) 2509-7793Website: .hkSee the last page for disclaimerCritical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 October 23, 2012Page 21 of 21
