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1、微生物有很多是人类重要的病原菌，影响人类健康微生物风险评估含：RiskAssessment,RiskManagement,andRiskCommunicationOverallobjectivetoensurepublichealthprotection落实？SinceMicrobiologicalRiskAssessmentisadevelopingscience,implementationoftheseguidelinesmayrequireaperiodoftimeandmayalsorequirespecializedtraininginthecountriesthatconside
2、ritnecessary.ReferencesAnonymous.1999.Principlesandguidelinesfortheconductofmicrobiologicalriskassessment.CAC/GL-30-1999Anonymous.2011.RiskassessmentofVibrio parahaemolyticusinseafood.WorldHealthOrganization/FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations.Anonymous.2000.Draftriskassessmentonthepubl
3、ichealthimpactofVibrio parahaemolyticusinrawmolluscanshellfish.FoodandDrugAdministration,USA.IwahoriJ,YamamotoA,SuzukiH,YamamotoT,TsutsuiT,MotoyamaK,SawadaM,MatsushitaT,HasegawaA,OsakaK,ToyofukuH,KasugaF.2010.QuantitativeriskassessmentofVibrio parahaemolyticus infinfish:amodelofrawhorsemackerelconsu
4、mptioninJapan.RiskAnal.30:1817-1832.名词定义Dose-ResponseAssessment剂量反应评估-Thedeterminationoftherelationshipbetweenthemagnitudeofexposure(dose)toachemical,biologicalorphysicalagentandtheseverityand/orfrequencyofassociatedadversehealtheffects(response).ExposureAssessment暴露评估-Thequalitativeand/orquantitati
5、veevaluationofthelikelyintakeofbiological,chemical,andphysicalagentsviafoodaswellasexposuresfromothersourcesifrelevant.名词定义Hazard危害-Abiological,chemicalorphysicalagentin,orconditionof,foodwiththepotentialtocauseanadversehealtheffect.HazardCharacterization危害特征描述-Thequalitativeand/orquantitativeevalua
6、tionofthenatureoftheadversehealtheffectsassociatedwiththehazard.ForthepurposeofMicrobiologicalRiskAssessmenttheconcernsrelatetomicroorganismsand/ortheirtoxins.名词定义HazardIdentification危害鉴定-Theidentificationofbiological,chemical,andphysicalagentscapableofcausingadversehealtheffectsandwhichmaybepresent
7、inaparticularfoodorgroupoffoods.QuantitativeRiskAssessment量化风险评估-ARiskAssessmentthatprovidesnumericalexpressionsofriskandindicationoftheattendantuncertainties(statedinthe1995ExpertConsultationdefinitiononRiskAnalysis).名词定义QualitativeRiskAssessment质化风险评估-ARiskAssessmentbasedondatawhich,whileformingan
8、inadequatebasisfornumericalriskestimations,nonetheless,whenconditionedbypriorexpertknowledgeandidentificationofattendantuncertaintiespermitsriskrankingorseparationintodescriptivecategoriesofrisk.Risk风险-Afunctionoftheprobabilityofanadversehealtheffectandtheseverityofthateffect,consequentialtoahazard(
9、s)infood.名词定义RiskAnalysis风险分析-Aprocessconsistingofthreecomponents:riskassessment,riskmanagementandriskcommunication.RiskAssessment风险评估-Ascientificallybasedprocessconsistingofthefollowingsteps:(i)hazardidentification,(ii)hazardcharacterization,(iii)exposureassessment,and(iv)riskcharacterization.名词定义R
10、iskCharacterization风险特征描述-Theprocessofdeterminingthequalitativeand/orquantitativeestimation,includingattendantuncertainties,oftheprobabilityofoccurrenceandseverityofknownorpotentialadversehealtheffectsinagivenpopulationbasedonhazardidentification,hazardcharacterizationandexposureassessment.RiskCommu
11、nication风险沟通-Theinteractiveexchangeofinformationandopinionsconcerningriskandriskmanagementamongriskassessors,riskmanagers,consumersandotherinterestedparties.名词定义RiskEstimate风险特征描述结果-OutputofRiskCharacterization.RiskManagement风险管理-Theprocessofweighingpolicyalternativesinthelightoftheresultsofriskasse
12、ssmentand,ifrequired,selectingandimplementingappropriatecontrol2options,includingregulatorymeasures.Sensitivityanalysis敏感性分析-Amethodusedtoexaminethebehaviourofamodelbymeasuringthevariationinitsoutputsresultingfromchangestoitsinputs.名词定义Transparent透明度-Characteristicsofaprocesswheretherationale,thelog
13、icofdevelopment,constraints,assumptions,valuejudgements,decisions,limitationsanduncertaintiesoftheexpresseddeterminationarefullyandsystematicallystated,documented,andaccessibleforreview.Uncertaintyanalysis不确定性分析-Amethodusedtoestimatetheuncertaintyassociatedwithmodelinputs,assumptionsandstructure/for
14、m.微生物风险评估准则1.MicrobiologicalRiskAssessmentshouldbesoundlybaseduponscience.2.ThereshouldbeafunctionalseparationbetweenRiskAssessmentandRiskManagement.3.MicrobiologicalRiskAssessmentshouldbeconductedaccordingtoastructuredapproachthatincludesHazardIdentification,HazardCharacterization,ExposureAssessmen
15、t,andRiskCharacterization.4.AMicrobiologicalRiskAssessmentshouldclearlystatethepurposeoftheexercise,includingtheformofRiskEstimatethatwillbetheoutput.微生物风险评估准则5.TheconductofaMicrobiologicalRiskAssessmentshouldbetransparent.6.AnyconstraintsthatimpactontheRiskAssessmentsuchascost,resourcesortime,shoul
16、dbeidentifiedandtheirpossibleconsequencesdescribed.7.TheRiskEstimateshouldcontainadescriptionofuncertaintyandwheretheuncertaintyaroseduringtheRiskAssessmentprocess.8.DatashouldbesuchthatuncertaintyintheRiskEstimatecanbedetermined;dataanddatacollectionsystemsshould,asfaraspossible,beofsufficientquali
17、tyandprecisionthatuncertaintyintheRiskEstimateisminimized.微生物风险评估准则9.AMicrobiologicalRiskAssessmentshouldexplicitlyconsiderthedynamicsofmicrobiologicalgrowth,survival,anddeathinfoodsandthecomplexityoftheinteraction(includingsequelae)betweenhumanandagentfollowingconsumptionaswellasthepotentialforfurt
18、herspread.10.Whereverpossible,RiskEstimatesshouldbereassessedovertimebycomparisonwithindependenthumanillnessdata.11.AMicrobiologicalRiskAssessmentmayneedreevaluation,asnewrelevantinformationbecomesavailable.肠炎弧菌风险评估风险分析与管理肠炎弧菌风险评估Anonymous.2011.RiskassessmentofVibrio parahaemolyticusinseafood.WHO/FA
19、OoftheUnitedNations.Anonymous.2000.DraftriskassessmentonthepublichealthimpactofVibrio parahaemolyticus inrawmolluscanshellfish.FDA,USA.日本WahoriJ,YamamotoA,SuzukiH,YamamotoT,TsutsuiT,MotoyamaK,SawadaM,MatsushitaT,HasegawaA,OsakaK,ToyofukuH,KasugaF.2010.QuantitativeriskassessmentofVibrio parahaemolyti
20、cus infinfish:amodelofrawhorsemackerelconsumptioninJapan.RiskAnal.30:1817-1832.Hara-KudoY,SaitoS,OhtsukaK,YamasakiS,YahiroS,NishioT,IwadeY,OtomoY,KonumaH,TanakaH,NakagawaH,SugiyamaK,Sugita-KonishiY,KumagaiS.2012.Characteristicsofasharpdecreasein Vibrio parahaemolyticus infectionsandseafoodcontaminat
21、ioninJapan.Int.J.FoodMicrobiol.157:95-101.降低原因10oC以下冷藏保存使用卫生的海水或清水处理设定肠炎弧菌的限量（25g熟鱆鱼螃蟹零检出，生食海产低于100MPN/g等）海产离冷藏后两小时内食用2001年后四分一的厨房换了新冰箱，半数厨房使用时直接从冷藏取海产半数以上海产卖场与餐厅检验员工粪便中肠炎弧菌联合国报告ToestimateriskofillnessfromVPduetoconsumptionofoystersinAustralia,Canada,JapanandNewZealandTheBloodyclamriskassessment：Aca
22、sestudyofperformingaquantitativeriskassessmentinadevelopingcountryusinglocaldata.ItfocusedononecityinThailandThepurposeofthefinfishriskassessmentwastoestimatetheriskofV. parahaemolyticus infectionfromrawhorsemackerelconsumptioninJapan,andtoestimatetheriskreductionfromwashingthisfishafterharvestordur
23、ingpreparation.风险评估限制Constraints大部分缺乏在地数据，只得引用美国数据Hazardidentification致病情形病人与案件病人与案件数ExposureassessmentforrawoystersFourfactorswereusedtomodelexposure:levelofpathogenicVPinseafoodatharvesteffectofpost-harvesthandlingandprocessingabilityoftheorganismtomultiplytoaninfectivedosenumberofpathogenicVPcons
24、umedHarvestModuleoftheV. parahaemolyticusExposureassessmentforrawoystersFactorsconsideredasinfluencingthenumbersofpathogenicV.parahaemolyticusatconsumptioninclude:ambientairtemperaturesattimeofharvesttimefromharvestuntiloystersareplacedunderrefrigerationtimeittakesforoysterstocoolonceunderrefrigerat
25、ionlengthofrefrigerationtimeuntilconsumptionPost-harvestModuleoftheV. parahaemolyticusExposureassessmentforhorsemackerelHazard characterizationRisk characterization牡蛎，基于各地生产与温度状况，预测年度病例：Risk characterizationHorsemackerelTheriskassessmentmodelestimatedthattheprobabilityofbecomingillperservingofrawhor
26、semackerelwas8.7710-7(bestscenario)to3.7510-5(worstscenario).FortheJapanesepopulation,theestimatewas701300casesperyear.Epidemiologicaldataindicatesaround10000casesannually,buttheimplicatedseafoodsarenotalwaysidentified.Risk characterizationHorsemackerel各情境下病例预测Impact of establishing limits for the l
27、evel of V. parahaemolyticusin oysters风险评估HarvestModulePost-harvestModule收获后至食用时的处理PublicHealthModule国人食用生海产频率美国牡蛎VP风险评估模式有关牡蛎，尚有许多研究工作需要进行1、环境影响因子，如温度、盐度、猎食者、动物passage、外地来菌种等，影响肠炎弧菌在所有的区域与季节的分布与兹长。2、换水速率，如淡水、潮汐、养殖深浅、风等。3、收获时致病性肠炎弧菌的分布与菌数。4、在不同温度的水产中致病性肠炎弧菌的兹长与存活。有关牡蛎，尚有许多研究工作需要进行5、工业上收获后处理的情形，如：至冷藏的
28、时间、冷藏速率与时间、冷藏的长短等。收获后处理的程序对于肠炎弧菌兹长的影响，这里包含在海水箱中净化（depuration），或在干净的养殖环境中重新安置（relaying）等程序。6、人们摄食的模式，季节与区域的生吃频繁程度、危险（易感染）人口的摄食情形。7、从集体中毒事件、流行病学、动物与其他研究中得到菌量与致病的关系（dose-responserelations），这里指不同的菌株、不同感受性（susceptibility）的消费者。有关牡蛎，尚有许多研究工作需要进行8、TDH外可能的病原因子，如TRH、urease、肠毒素、酸适应、肠道入侵等。9、不同菌株的致病性监测assay。10、海产生物的生理与免疫状态与肠炎弧菌数量的关系。11、消费者在食用前之处理。12、改进全球对新型致病菌的监测。
