《宏观经济学英文课件：CHAP02 The Science of Macroeconomics》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《宏观经济学英文课件：CHAP02 The Science of Macroeconomics（80页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、MACROECONOMICS 2010 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved 2010 Worth Publishers, all rights reservedS E V E N T H E D I T I O NPowerPoint Slides by Ron CronovichN. Gregory MankiwC H A P T E RThe Science of Macroeconomics2Modified for EC 204 by Bob MurphyIn this chapter, you will learn:the meaning an
2、d measurement of the most important macroeconomic statistics:Gross Domestic Product (GDP)The Consumer Price Index (CPI)The Unemployment RateCHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsGross Domestic Product: Expenditure and IncomeTwo definitions:Total expenditure on domestically-produced final goods and ser
3、vices.Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production. Expenditure equals income because every dollar spent by a buyer becomes income to the seller. 3CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsThe Circular FlowHouseholdsFirmsGoodsLaborExpenditure ($)Income ($)4CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroe
4、conomicsCHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsGross Domestic Product: Expenditure and IncomeOne caveat:Measurement of income and expenditure is imperfect.Difference in GDP and Gross Domestic Income GDI) is called the “Statistical Discrepancy.” See Supplement 2-15CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsVal
5、ue addedValue added: The value of output minus the value of the intermediate goods used to produce that output 6CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsFinal goods, value added, and GDPGDP = value of final goods produced = sum of value added at all stages of production.The value of the final goods alrea
6、dy includes the value of the intermediate goods, so including intermediate and final goods in GDP would be double-counting. 8CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsThe expenditure components of GDPconsumption, Cinvestment, Igovernment spending, Gnet exports, NXAn important identity:Y = C + I + G + NXag
7、gregate expenditurevalue of total output9CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsConsumption (C)durable goods last a long time e.g., cars, home appliancesnondurable goodslast a short time e.g., food, clothingserviceswork done for consumers e.g., dry cleaning, air traveldefinition: The value of all goods
8、 and services bought by households. Includes:10CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsU.S. consumption, 200842.620.87.270.5%6,069.62,965.11,023.2$ 10,057.9 Services Nondurables DurablesConsumption% of GDP$ billions11CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsInvestment (I)Spending on goods bought for future u
9、se (i.e., capital goods)Includes:Business fixed investmentSpending on plant and equipmentResidential fixed investmentSpending by consumers and landlords on housing units Inventory investmentThe change in the value of all firms inventories12CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsU.S. Investment, 2008 0.
10、33.410.914.0% 47.0 487.7 1,552.8$1,993.5 Inventory Residential Business fixed Investment% of GDP$ billions13CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsInvestment vs. CapitalNote: Investment is spending on new capital.Example (assumes no depreciation): 1/1/2009: economy has $500b worth of capitalduring 2009
11、:investment = $60b1/1/2010: economy will have $560b worth of capital14CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsStocks vs. FlowsA flow is a quantity measured per unit of time. E.g., “U.S. investment was $2.5 trillion during 2009.”FlowStockA stock is a quantity measured at a point in time. E.g., “The U.S.
12、capital stock was $26 trillion on January 1, 2009.”15CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsStocks vs. Flows - examplesthe govt budget deficitthe govt debt# of new college graduates this year# of people with college degreesa persons annual savinga persons wealthflowstock16CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeco
13、nomicsGovernment spending (G)G includes all government spending on goods and services.G excludes transfer payments (e.g., unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent spending on goods and services. 18CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsU.S. Government Spending, 2008- Federal20.2%
14、$2,882.4Govt spending- State & localDefense7.512.75.22.4 1,071.9 1,810.4 734.9 337.0Non-defense% of GDP$ billions19Net Exports: NX = EX IM def: the value of total exports (EX) minus the value of total imports (IM)NOW YOU TRY: An expenditure-output puzzle?Suppose a firm: produces $10 million worth of
15、 final goodsonly sells $9 million worthDoes this violate the expenditure = output identity?CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsWhy output = expenditureUnsold output goes into inventory, and is counted as “inventory investment”whether or not the inventory buildup was intentional. In effect, we are as
16、suming that firms purchase their unsold output. 22CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsGDP: An important and versatile conceptWe have now seen that GDP measures:total incometotal outputtotal expenditurethe sum of value-added at all stages in the production of final goods23CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroe
17、conomicsGNP vs. GDPGross National Product (GNP): Total income earned by the nations factors of production, regardless of where locatedGross Domestic Product (GDP):Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production, regardless of nationalityGNP GDP = factor payments from abroad minus f
18、actor payments to abroadExamples of factor payments: wages, profits, rent, interest & dividends on assets24NOW YOU TRY: Discussion QuestionIn your country, which would you want to be bigger, GDP or GNP? Why?GNP vs. GDP in select countries, 2007CountryGNPGDPGNP GDP (% of GDP)Philippines$157,087$144,0
19、629.0%Japan$4,530,191$4,384,2553.3%China$3,229,841$3,205,5070.8%United States$13,827,201$13,751,4000.6%Canada$1,318,304$1,329,8850.9%South Africa$274,141$283,0073.1%New Zealand$125,936$135,6677.2%Peru$98,625$107,2978.1%GNP and GDP in millions of current U.S. dollarsCHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomi
20、csOther Measures of IncomeNational Income = GNP - DepreciationNational Income = Compensation of Employees + Proprietors Income + Rental Income + Corporate Profits + Net Interest + Indirect Business TaxesNote: Supplement 2-7 describes recent change in definition of National Income to include Indirect
21、 Business Taxes. 27CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsComponents of National Income28CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsOther Measures of IncomePersonal Income = National Income - Indirect Business Taxes - Corporate Profits - Social Insurance Contributions - Net Interest + Dividends + Government T
22、ransfers to Individuals + Personal Interest IncomeDisposable Personal Income = Personal Income - Personal Tax and Nontax PaymentsDisposable Personal Income is what households and noncorporate businesses have to spend (or save). 29CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsReal vs. nominal GDPGDP is the val
23、ue of all final goods and services produced. nominal GDP measures these values using current prices. real GDP measure these values using constant prices. 30CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsReal GDP controls for inflationChanges in nominal GDP can be due to:changes in prices. changes in quantities
24、 of output produced.Changes in real GDP can only be due to changes in quantities,*One way to construct real GDP is by using constant base-year prices. 31CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsReal vs. nominal GDP32CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsGDP DeflatorInflation rate: the percentage increase i
25、n the overall level of pricesOne measure of the price level: GDP deflatorDefinition:36NOW YOU TRY: GDP deflator and inflation rateUse your previous answers to compute the GDP deflator in each year. Use GDP deflator to compute the inflation rate from 2006 to 2007, and from 2007 to 2008. Nom. GDPReal
26、GDPGDP deflatorInflationrate2006$46,200$46,200n.a.200751,40050,000200858,30052,000NOW YOU TRY: AnswersNominal GDPReal GDPGDP deflatorInflationrate2006$46,200$46,200100.0n.a.200751,40050,000102.82.8%200858,30052,000112.19.1%CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsTwo arithmetic tricks for working with pe
27、rcentage changesEX:If your hourly wage rises 5% and you work 7% more hours, then your wage income rises approximately 12%.1. For any variables X and Y, percentage change in (X * Y )= percentage change in X + percentage change in Y41CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsTwo arithmetic tricks for workin
28、g with percentage changesEX: GDP deflator = NGDP/RGDP.If NGDP rises 9% and RGDP rises 4%, then the inflation rate is approximately 5%.2. percentage change in (X/Y )= percentage change in X - percentage change in Y42CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsMeasuring Economic Growth43CHAPTER 2 The Data of
29、MacroeconomicsMeasuring Economic Growth44CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsMeasuring Economic GrowthA problem arises when using fixed base-year weights: Growth will vary depending on base year chosen.Rapidly growing sectors with declining relative prices will be weighted “too much” as base year be
30、comes further and further in the past. Opposite for slowly growing sectors.45CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsChain-Weighted Real GDPOver time, relative prices change, so the base year should be updated periodically-which BEA used to do.In essence, chain-weighted real GDP updates the base year ev
31、ery year, so it is more accurate than fixed base-year GDP.Official measure of GDP now produced by BEA.See Supplement 2-4.46CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsChain-Weighted Real GDPStep 1:Rewrite as:47CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsChain-Weighted Real GDPStep 2:Rewrite as:48CHAPTER 2 The Data
32、of MacroeconomicsChain-Weighted Real GDPStep 3:To get level of real GDP, use nominal GDP for a given year and apply growth rate:Real GDP is measured here in year t-4 dollars.49CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsWhen is the Economy in a Recession?Rule of Thumb: Two quarters of decline in Real GDPNat
33、ional Bureau of Economic Research uses more nuanced approach (see Supplement 1-3): Monthly Indicators rather than Quarterly. “A significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail t
34、rade.”50CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics52CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsSource: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.53CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.54CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsSource: Department of Commerce,
35、Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis.55CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsConsumer Price Index (CPI)A measure of the overall level of prices Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Uses: tracks changes in the typical households cost of livingadjusts many contracts for infl
36、ation (“COLAs”)allows comparisons of dollar amounts over time56CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsHow the BLS constructs the CPI1.Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumers “basket” of goods2.Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of bas
37、ket3.CPI in any month equals57The composition of the CPIs “basket”CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsUnderstanding the CPI63CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsUnderstanding the CPIwhere the weights are given by:64CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsUnderstanding the CPIThe CPI is a weighted averag
38、e of prices relative to their value in the base period. The weight on each “price relative” reflects that goods relative importance in the CPIs basket. Note that the weights remain fixed over time.65CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsWhy the CPI may overstate inflationSubstitution bias: The CPI use
39、s fixed weights, so it cannot reflect consumers ability to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen.Introduction of new goods: The introduction of new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect, increases the real value of the dollar. But it does not reduce the CPI, because the
40、 CPI uses fixed weights.Unmeasured changes in quality: Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar, but are often not fully measured. 66CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsThe size of the CPIs biasIn 1995, a Senate-appointed panel of experts estimated that the CPI overstates inflation by a
41、bout 1.1% per year.So the BLS made adjustments to reduce the bias.Now, the CPIs bias is probably under 1% per year.See Supplements 2-10 and 2-11.67CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsCPI vs. GDP DeflatorPrices of capital goods:included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically)excluded from CPIPrice
42、s of imported consumer goods:included in CPIexcluded from GDP deflatorThe basket of goods:CPI: fixedGDP deflator: changes every year69Two measures of inflation in the U.S.Percentage change from 12 months earlierCPIGDP deflatorCHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsCategories of the populationemployed w
43、orking at a paid job unemployed not employed but looking for a job labor force the amount of labor available for producing goods and services; all employed plus unemployed persons not in the labor force not employed, not looking for work71CHAPTER 2 The Data of MacroeconomicsThe Household Survey: Two
44、 important labor force conceptsunemployment rate percentage of the labor force that is unemployed (see Supplement 2-12 for alternative measures of the unemployment rate)labor force participation rate the fraction of the adult population that “participates” in the labor force72CHAPTER 2 The Data of M
45、acroeconomicsThe Establishment SurveyThe BLS obtains a second measure of employment by surveying businesses, asking how many workers are on their payrolls.Neither measure is perfect, and they occasionally diverge due to:treatment of self-employed personsnew firms not counted in establishment surveyt
46、echnical issues involving population inferences from sample data77Two measures of employment growthPercentage change from 12 months earlierChapter SummaryGross Domestic Product (GDP) measures both total income and total expenditure on the economys output of goods & services.Nominal GDP values output
47、 at current prices; real GDP values output at constant prices. Changes in output affect both measures, but changes in prices only affect nominal GDP. GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports. Chapter SummaryThe overall level of prices can be measured by either:the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of a fixed basket of goods purchased by the typical consumer, orthe GDP deflator, the ratio of nominal to real GDPThe unemployment rate is the fraction of the labor force that is not employed.
