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1、代谢增长论市场份额竞争学习不确定性和技术产业Stillwatersrundeep.流静水深流静水深,人静心深人静心深Wherethereislife,thereishope。有生命必有希望。有生命必有希望灵感的由来：观观潮而思潮而思四十五年文革长征：太原重机厂太原重机厂的调查（1967年春）西方禁运：劳动分工受市场规模限制李约瑟，费正清，裴宜理，黄宗智，和普里戈金用物理学方法研究历史史（1979-85）布鲁塞尔学派：生命起源蚂蚁蚂蚁的的劳动劳动分工模型分工模型（1977-81）现代劳动分工与东西方文明的分岔人和蚂蚁的差别？日本物理学家日本物理学家的观察引入文化因子文化因子（1983-87）从自
2、组织经济复杂系统演化演化动力学力学复复杂演化演化经济学学理论生态学的复复杂性佯性佯谬亚当-斯密悖论一般斯密原理（2002，2005）中国模式的辩论挑战内生增长论和知识积累伦代代谢增增长论（2012-14）修正经济学的基本基本观念念市市场竞争争的本质：价格竞争还是市市场份份额竞争争？价格机制价格机制：边际定价，成本加成定价，还是策略定价价(strategic pricing)?技术进步的基本模式：可可预测的的风险和不可不可预测的不确定性？经济发展的基本动力是知知识扩散散，还是资源源与市市场的开发、竞争与淘汰淘汰？经济决策是完全信息下的理性理性优化化决策，还是陌生机遇下的试错和模仿模仿？经济经济学
3、学的基本基本问题问题（1）经济增长是否受资源源约束束（马尔萨斯问题）？新古典人性的自私自私贪婪婪假设=资源无限 线性优化模型资源有限演化经济学的非线性竞争演化模型（2）如何描写技术更新对经济发展的作用？新古典经济学：噪声驱动连续变化优化过程理论生态学：小波更迭连续与跃迁试错过程李李约约瑟瑟问题问题-华勒斯坦佯谬 劳动分工和东西方文明分岔代谢增长论产业（文明）兴衰生态模型引入经济学(Samuelson 1971)文化因子引入学习竞争(Chen 1987)资源约束市场份额竞争(陈平 2002)斯密悖论复杂系统稳定性与复杂性的矛盾(Chen 2005)逻辑斯蒂小波创造性毁灭知识新陈代谢挑战内生增长论
4、(Chen 2012, 2014)一石五鸟（1）生态学引入行为因素（2）个人主义与集体主义的竞争策略与赶超模式（3）经济学价格竞争转为市场份额竞争，边际定价、成本加成定价，与策略定价（4）经济学与复杂科学重新定义国富=规模经济+范围经济（资源多样性）新的绿色增长方式（5）一般斯密原理：劳动分工受市场规模、资源种类、环境涨落的限制（6）经济动力学统一理论（微观，中观，宏观，制度）的共同模块生命周期的小波模型（7）虚拟经济重新生态化社会人与经济生态Fundamental Causes of Asian Emergence: Two Competing PerspectivesNeo-classic
5、al perspective: nothing new tech diffusion + high investment export-led growth convergence in growth and cultureEvolutionary perspective: ecological crisis + new wave of industrial revolution structural changes in economies and organization rise of East Asia & decline of West Theoretical challenge:
6、which growth theory is relevant in the global age ?Which Growth Theory Is Relevant to Modern History? Average Annual GDP Growth Rate (1913-2001)-PeriodWEuroEEuroAsiaUSfUSSRJapanChina-1913-501.190.860.822.842.152.21-0.021950-734.794.865.173.934.849.295.021973-20012.211.015.412.94-0.422.716.72-Source:
7、 Maddison (2007), UN StatisticsUneven Growth in Globalization(Annual Real GDP growth rate per decade)Period1970s1980s1990s2000s-China6.29.3 10.4 10.5Japan3.84.61.20.7US3.23.23.41.6Germany2.92.31.90.9East Asia4.45.53.34.0Latin America6.11.53.23.1East Europe4.42.3 -2.04.3West Europe3.12.32.11.1Austral
8、ia & NZ2.82.93.63.0World3.83.12.82.5-(Data Source: UN Statistics)Main Issues in Economic Theory1. Equilibrium vs. non-equilibrium growth theory convergence /divergence vs. rise & fall2. Concept of knowledge and nature of technology static vs. evolutionary perspective3. Population dynamics of creativ
9、e destruction resource constrains and technology wavelets4. Learning competition and culture strategy different growth mode in West and East labor-saving vs. resource-saving technology5. East Asia and China experience technology cycle, mixed economy, and helping handNeoclassical Growth Theory: Conve
10、rgence vs. divergence storyExogenous growth theory (Solow 1956): Constant Returns Convergence Endogenous growth theory (Romer 1990): Learning by doing = Knowledge Accumulation (Arrow 1962) Increasing Returns Divergence Persistent divide between Rich and PoorPuzzle: how to understand rise and fall of
11、 civilizations and great powers?Metabolic growth theory (Chen 1987, 2005, 2010, 2012)Economic Insight and Theoretical ModelingAdam Smith division of labor is limited by market extentMarshall economics should be close to biology and dynamicsHayek knowledge is a discovery processSchumpeter development
12、 means creative destructionFrank Knight risk and uncertainty in marketMethodological Issue: How to Describe Technology Advancement?Technology as random shock: Solow residual, RBC school macro econometricsTechnology as continuous trajectory: knowledge capital, increasing returns Technology as logisti
13、c growth turned into logistic wavelets population dynamics for Schumpeters creative destructionUnlimited vs. Limited (Logistic) Growtha1=0.6, a2=1, a3=1.4; K=4, Rlogis=4.0Theoretical Issue: What Determines the Size of Market Extent?Smith theorem: division of labor is limited by market extent = marke
14、t niche depends on resource and technology logistic growth = varying returns to scale source of nonlinearity & complexityNeoclassical production function ignores resource constraints unlimited (exponential) growth equilibrium thinking and consumerism root of ecological crisis + financial crisisEvide
15、nce of Logistic Growth: US Automobile Industry (Output as Percentage of GDP)Technology Wavelets, Growth Cycles, and Creative Destruction in Species Competition ModelChina Approach in Adapting Tech Cycle: Helping Hand at Varying StagesI (initial stage). strategic planning, technology import, tech tra
16、nsfer from science & defense sector to civilian industryII (take-off stage). open competition under mixed economy, selective opening in industrial park, government matching fund for FDI, market regulation for virtuous competitionIII (mature stage). breaking monopoly + encouraging innovationIV (trans
17、ition stage). assistance for close-down obsolete industry, re-education of laid-off workers, reform policy & stabilizing policyObservable Patterns inChanging Return to ScaleCobb-Douglas production function static (fixed) return to scaleLogistic growth logistic curve dynamic return to scale dynamic i
18、ncreasing returns (first half) + decreasing returns (second half) + constant returns (infinite future) to scaleSpecies competition logistic wavelets rise & fall of waveletsOrigin of Culture Diversity: Culture As Learning Strategy for Emerging Markets &ResourcesEquilibrium thinking culture convergenc
19、e universal value and instituteNon-equilibrium thinking culture diversity varying strategies for adapting to changing environment coexistence of individualist and collectivists speciesWhy East (Asia and China) Is Different from West?Two modes of division of labor in history:East resource-saving/labo
20、r-intensive technology agriculture revolution rise of EastWest labor-saving/resource-intensive technology industrial revolution rise of WestCrises of modern civilization:Global warming ecological crisisJob crisis machine crowding out peopleWhat is the impact of information revolution?Wallerstein Par
21、adox and Causes of Culture DiversityHistorical paradox Why resource-rich European needs more existence space while highly populated China needs more labor during civilization bifurcation about 14-17th century?Ecological constraints for growth resource/population ratio strategic choice under uncertai
22、ntyCulture orientation shaped by environment labor saving vs. resource saving technology individualism vs. collectivism path dependence in development processThree Types of Learning Strategies and Risk AttitudesLearning by doing (Smith: pin-making) knowledge accumulation gradual change risk-neutral
23、cultureLearning by trying (pioneers in fire, electricity) knowledge creation abrupt change risk-taking cultureLearning by imitating (late-comers) catch-up game risk-averse cultureModeling approach: from static theory of risk aversion to nonlinear dynamics of varying risk behaviorCulture Factor and L
24、earning Strategy in Facing New and Uncertain TechnologyBehavioral factor R(a)0a1Collectivism = risk averse-1a labor-saving but resource-consuming economyChinese grain-production resource-saving but labor-intensive economyCompetitive Exclusion & Coexistence in Two Species ModelThe condition of co-exi
25、stenceTwo collectivists cannot coexist;Two individualists may coexist;No. of species No. of resourcesLand Use in 1993 (Maddison 1998, p.28)-Region Total (m hc) Arable (%) Pop (m) ArabLand per head (hc)-China959.7101178.40.08Japan37.811.8124.80.04India328.851.6899.00.19Europe487.727.8506.90.26US980.9
26、19.1239.20.73USSR2240.310.3293.00.79Canada997.64.628.41.58Australia771.46.017.82.62Resource intensity: West mode 10 times or more of East modeCatch-Up Game between Innovators and Imitators Complex patterns of rise and fall between individualist and collectivismCollectivist will catch and win by imit
27、ating existing technologyIndividualist will survive by faster innovation & learning by trying emerging technologyCollectivist has greater stability under fluctuating environmentA mixed system of individualists and collectivists is more stable than a pure system of two individualists时代变迁与规范更新罗马俱乐部报告增
28、长的极限系统工程兴起（196？）数学的突破与质疑：突变，分岔、混沌（1970s） 生物学家怀疑(Gould)资本主义与社会主义竞争谁胜谁负？普里戈金不信（1986），苏东瓦解后赞赏（1992）。劳动分工的优化模式（杨小凯）与演化模式（陈平）（1990）。金融危机与中国崛起接受代谢增长论方法方法论问题论问题真实经济与货币经济均衡与非均衡的机制线性与非线性思维理论与计算机模拟萨缪尔森问题(1995)：陈平工作是否会产生新的规范(paradigm)?普里戈金问题：混沌产生有序什么的新的秩序？陈平探索：从复杂经济学演化经济学代代谢经济学学ConclusionGrowth is an evolution
29、ary dynamics in non-equilibrium open system, which is more complex than optimization process in equilibrium closed systemPopulation dynamics is a useful framework for economic dynamics, which is shaped by ecological constraints and market-share competitionMetabolic growth theory describes essential
30、features of creative destruction in modern economy. Logistic wavelet is a better mathematical representation for technology progress and growth cycles than harmonic cycle and random shocks in neoclassical economics.Liberalization policy in Washington Consensus is misleading for emerging and transiti
31、on economies, since it ignores the uncertainty and sunk costs in technology advancement and uneven globalizationReferencesChen, Ping, Origin of the Division of Labor and a Stochastic Mechanism of Differentiation, European Journal of Operational Research, 30, 246-250 (1987).Chen, Ping, “Evolutionary
32、Economic Dynamics: Persistent Business Cycles, Disruptive Technology, and the Trade-Off between Stability and Complexity,” in Dopfer, Kurt, ed., The Evolutionary Foundations of Economics, Chapter 15, pp.472-505, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, (2005) . Chen, Ping, Equilibrium Illusion, Econom
33、ic Complexity, and Evolutionary Foundation of Economic Analysis,” Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, 5(1), 81-127 (2008).Chen, Ping, Economic Complexity and Equilibrium Illusion, Routledge, London (2010).Arrow, Kenneth J. The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing, Review of Econom
34、ic Studies, 39, 155 (1962).Maddison, Angus, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, OECD, Paris (1998).Solow, Robert M. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94 (1956).Romer, Paul M. “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Polit
35、ical Economy, 94, 1002-38 (1986).Rostow, Walt W. The Stages of Economic Growth, 3rd ed., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1990).Prigogine, Ilya, Allen, Peter M., and Robert Herman, “Long Term Trends and the Evolution of Complexity”, in Ervin Laszlo ed., Goals for a Global Community: A Report t
36、o the Club of Rome, Pergamon Press, Oxford (1977).AcknowledgementsThe growth cycles based on species competition model was inspired by works developed in Brussels and Austin in 1970s-1980s, including Peter Allen, St. Louis Deneubourg, Gregory Nicolis, I. Prigogine, Walt Rostow, and David Kendrick.Contact Ihttp:/plexeconomics.org/
