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1、气候变化自然风险评估工作介气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍绍 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work Yinlong XU Yinlong XU （许许许许 吟隆吟隆吟隆吟隆）Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in AgricultureChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)Beijing, China中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 60
2、12 E-mail: 3 Mar. 2010Adapting to Climate Change in China: China-UK-Swiss Partnership内容内容ContentContent工作进展工作进展 Progress国家层面工作计划国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan地方层面工作计划地方层面工作计划 Province-level work plan未来工作未来工作 Future work工作进展工作进展ProgressProgress国家层面工作计划国家层面工作计划 National-level work planNational-leve
3、l work plan农业（中国农业科学院）农业（中国农业科学院） Agriculture (CAAS)草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU)水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院） Water resources (NHRI)农业（中国农业科学院）：农业（中国农业科学院）：农业（中国农业科学院）：农业（中国农业科学院）：Agriculture (CAAS)Agriculture (CAAS)（1）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价 Phase : Current impact and a
4、ssessment on climate change目标目标1：气候变化历史影响的检测 Objective 1: Detect the historical impact of climate change. 目标目标2：分析已经发生的气候变化与农业气象灾害损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系 Objective 2: Analyze the relationship between climate changes which had happened and the loss of agro-meteorological disasters, water resources, cropping
5、 systems. 目标目标3：评估已经采取的适应气候变化措施 Objective 3: Assess adaptation measures which have been taken to adapt to climate change in the past. 目标目标4：农业灾害风险处置措施评价及选择Objective 4: Assessment and adoption of agricultural disaster risk disposal measures. 目标目标5：评估农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性 Objective 5: Evaluate the vulnerab
6、ility about impact of agriculture on climate change.（2）未来影响的评估）未来影响的评估 Phase : Impact and assessment for the future 目标目标1：评估模型的验证 Objective 1: Validation of Assessment Model. 目标目标2：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植结构调整战略 Objective 2: Under the conditions of climate change in the future, the changes in
7、crop planting area and main crops planting boundaries and the strategy of planting structural adjustment in China. 目标目标3：未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评估 Objective 3: Assessment that climate change in the future impacts on major food crops in China. 目标目标4：风险与脆弱性评估 Objective 4: Assessment on risk and vulnerabili
8、ty. 目标目标5：农业灾害风险管理措施评估及建议 Objective 5: Assessment and proposition on disposal measures of agricultural disaster risk. （3）适应措施和政策建议）适应措施和政策建议 Phase : Adaptation and policy recommendations目标目标1：我国农业适应气候变化空间区域划分 Objective 1: Space division about agricultural adaptation to climate change in China. 目标目标2
9、：技术清单编制 Objective 2: Preparation of technical-list. 目标目标3：农业适应气候变化的政策建议Objective 3: Policy recommendations about agricultural adaptation to climate change. 目标目标4：省级适应框架的完善 Objective 4: Complete the adaptation framework of provincial level.草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grasslan
10、d-livestock (CAU)Grassland-livestock (CAU)目标目标1：气候变化对草地畜牧业影响的检测Objective 1 Detecting the impact of climate change on grassland and livestock husbandry. 目标目标2：全国层面的草地畜牧业气候变化影响评估模型校验Objective 2: Model development for assessment of the effects of climate change on pasture livestock production nation wi
11、de. 目标目标3：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评估 Objective 3: Assessment of risk of future climate on pasture livestock production. 目标目标4：提出草地畜牧业适应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective 4: Provide national strategies of adaptation to climate change in pasture livestock production.水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院）
12、Water resources (NHRI)Water resources (NHRI)目标目标1：完善全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型 Objective 1: Consummate China-wide assessment model for climate change impact on water resources 目标目标2：检测气候变化对典型流域实测径流量变化的影响，综合分析过去适应极端干旱、洪涝灾害的经验 Objective 2: Detect the effect of climate change on actual measurement of strea
13、m flow in typical watershed; comprehensively analyze the experience of past adapting to extreme drought and floods 目标目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 3：Assess the potential impact of climate change on future water resources over China 目标目标4：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective 4: Address national adaptation st
14、rategy of water industry to climate change.地方层面工作计划地方层面工作计划 Province-level work planProvince-level work plan宁夏宁夏 Ningxia农业农业 Agriculture 水资源水资源 Water Resources 适应技术示范适应技术示范 Adaptation case study 内蒙内蒙 Inner Mongolia 草地畜牧业草地畜牧业 Grassland-livestock 水资源水资源 Water resources 适应案例研究适应案例研究 Adaptation case st
15、udy 省份省份1：内蒙古：内蒙古Province 1： Inner Mongolia ：草地畜牧：草地畜牧业（内蒙古（内蒙古农业大学）大学） ：Grassland-livestock (IM Agricultural University) 目目标1：气候：气候变化化对内蒙古草地畜牧内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响的影响评价价 Objective 1 Climate change impacts risk assessment for whole Inner Mongolia grassland-livestock目目标2：未来气候：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响的影响
16、预估估Objective 2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios ：水：水资源（内蒙古水利局）源（内蒙古水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Inner Mongolia)目目标1：气候：气候变化化对内蒙古水内蒙古水资源的影响源的影响评估估 Objective 1 Detection of climatic change impacts o
17、n Inner Mongolia water resource目目标2：气候：气候变化化对未来水未来水资源的可能影响源的可能影响评估估Objective 2 Future risk assessment目目标3：不同草原：不同草原类型区适型区适应案例研究案例研究Objective 3 Case study of different grassland type region about water resources ：适：适应案例研究案例研究 ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations目目标1：典型草原草地畜牧：典型草原草地畜牧业区
18、区锡林浩特林浩特 Objective 1 Typical steppe grassland and animal husbandry area Xilinhaote目目标2：浑善达克沙地草地善达克沙地草地农业区区多多伦 Objective 2 Sandy grassland agricultural area - Doron目目标3：荒漠草原：荒漠草原农牧交牧交错带四子王旗四子王旗 Objective 3 Ecotone of desert and grassland - Siziwangqi省份省份2：宁夏：宁夏Province 2： Ningxia ：农业（宁夏气象研究所）（宁夏气象研究所
19、） ： Agriculture (Ningxia Meteorological Research Institute)目目标1：历史气候史气候变化化对宁夏宁夏农业影响的影响的检测 Objective 1 Analyze the impact of present climate change on agriculture in Ningxia目目标2：未来影响的：未来影响的评估。估。评估未来气候估未来气候变化条件下化条件下对宁夏宁夏农业生生产的可能影响和的可能影响和脆弱性，考脆弱性，考虑极端气候事件（极端气候事件（侧重在干旱、高温等）的影响，重在干旱、高温等）的影响，进行行农业综合适合适应气气
20、候候变化措施的示范和效果化措施的示范和效果评估，从估，从农业气象灾害的角度提出气象灾害的角度提出对农业生生产有指有指导意意义的适的适应对策建策建议。 Objective 2 Assess the future agricultural production risk of climate change. Assess the possible impact and vulnerability of climate change on agricultural production in Ningxia, in terms of extreme climate events, especiall
21、y drought and hot temperature events.; demonstrate and evaluate the comprehensive technologies to adapt to climate change; provide indicative suggestion in adapting to agro-meteorological hazards.目目标3：气候：气候变化化综合合对策分析策分析Objective 3 Comprehensive agricultural adaptation recommendations to climate chan
22、ge ：水：水资源（宁夏水利局）源（宁夏水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Ningxia)目目标1：构建全国：构建全国层面的分布式气候面的分布式气候变化化对水水资源影响源影响评估模型估模型Objective 1 Build distributed assessment model in Ningxia目目标2：气候：气候变化化对历史水史水资源的影响源的影响检测Objective 2 Risk assessments for the main rivers in NX目目标3：气候：气候变化化对未来水未来水资源的可能影响源的可能影响评估
23、估Objective 3 Water balance assessment for case study area and policy recommendations ：适：适应案例研究案例研究 ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations目目标1：主要研究气候：主要研究气候变暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、实现“一年两季一年两季”、提高冷凉、提高冷凉山区山区农业生生产效益的可行性效益的可行性 Objective 1 Under the condition of climate warming, Mainly
24、to study the implementation of revaccination of winter wheat and pasture, to achieve one-year two seasons, and promote the feasibility of agricultural production efficiency in cold mountain areas. 目目标2：主要：主要进行气候行气候变暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引进与示范栽培与示范栽培Objective 2 Under the condition of climate warmi
25、ng, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing maize 目目标3：主要：主要进行适行适应气候气候变暖条件下中晚熟暖条件下中晚熟马铃薯新品种引薯新品种引进与示范栽培与示范栽培 Objective 3 Under the condition of adaptation to climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing potatoes. 目目标4：主要：主要进行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、行豆科
26、牧草（紫花苜蓿、红豆草）丰豆草）丰产及养畜利用技及养畜利用技术示范研究示范研究Objective 4 Mainly to study the high yield of leguminous forage (alfalfa, Onobrychis) and usage of technology in livestock Whats new relative to the former projectsPolicy-orientedQuestion-basedFrom runoff to hydrology concentration and routingTypical regions hi
27、ghlightedMore practical for case studyCombination for the method of top-down and bottom-upLess dependence on modelsProvincial-level Risk AssessmentNational-level Risk Assessment Case Study AreasNational-level Policy RecommendationsProvincial-level Policy RecommendationsLocal Adaptation Policy RecommendationsShortcomings and the next-step workStill in draftLack of requirements from stakeholdersData monopoly for water resourcesThe interaction between agriculture/grassland and water resources not highlightedDetailed task assignmentsDialogues with the local authorities
