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1、Top picksHoldHoldBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyHoldHoldHoldBuyBuyBuyBuySell130Deutsche BankMarkets ResearchEuropeUnited KingdomMetals & MiningIndustry3Q12 productionpreviewDate8 October 2012Industry UpdateRob CliffordA strong production quarter, exceptfor platinumRecovering production into a weaker demand ou
2、tlookHad it not been for the boost in base and precious metals prices provided byQE3, the quarter would have been characterised by a strong productionrecovery and growth in many cases, driving down prices. Relative to Q410,copper, nickel, iron ore, thermal coal, gold and silver are record production
3、levels for the companies under our coverage. Although not at record levels,zinc and coking coal are still at decent levels.Platinum and aluminium are the notable exceptions.In the chart below, we show the combined production by commodity of thecompanies that we have under coverage. We are forecastin
4、g most commodities tobe at or close to record levels, with the exception of: Aluminium capacitycurtailments remain in force at Norsk Hydro and Rio, whilst BHPB is still recoveringfrom anode defects in its operations. PGMs the strike at Lonmin and thecurtailment of two of Aquariuss operations, namely
5、 Marikana and Everest shouldsee PGM production down slightly on Q2. However, the illegal strikes at AngloPlatinum will not have a significant impact on this quarter. We suspect howeverthat productivity across the industry was not particularly good, given the currentlabour environment in South Africa
6、.Miner valuation/RiskWe value the miners using discounted cash flow analysis of the life of mine cashflows for each of the operations. Key risks include interest rate hikes for preciousmetals and a China consumption slowdown. Additional risks include deviations inexchange rates, commodity prices and
7、 production levels from expectations. Capexdeviations from plan for growth projects also impact our valuation.Figure 1: Cumulative production of companies under coverageResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-Grant SporreResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-Rio Tinto (RIO.L),GBP2,986.50Randgold (RRS.L),GBP7,775.00Afri
8、can Minerals (AMIq.L),GBP312.75Companies FeaturedAnglo American (AAL.L),GBP1,812.50African Barrick (ABGL.L),GBP471.80African Minerals (AMIq.L),GBP312.75Antofagasta PLC (ANTO.L),GBP1,322.00Aquarius Platinum Limited(AQP.L),GBP47.50BHP Billiton Plc (BLT.L),GBP1,929.50Boliden AB (BOL.ST),SEK113.10ENRC P
9、LC (ENRC.L),GBP333.20Fresnillo (FRES.L),GBP1,966.00Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO.L),GBP207.00Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ.L),GBP738.00Lonmin Plc (LMI.L),GBP549.00Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL),NOK28.05Nyrstar NV (NYR.BR),EUR4.881201101009080706050Rebased at 100 for 4Q10Rio Tinto (RIO.L),GBP2,986.50Randgold (RRS.L),GBP7,775.00Veda
10、nta Resources (VED.L),GBP1,101.00BuyBuyBuyCuAlNiZnIron oreCoking ThermalGoldSilverPGMcoalcoal4Q101Q112Q11F3Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12F_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuter
11、s, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
12、report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewProduction results calendar for 3Q12Figure 2: Mining comp
13、anies results calendar for 3Q12Monday08-Oct-12Tuesday09-Oct-12Wednesday10-Oct-12Thursday11-Oct-12Friday12-Oct-12VED - 2Q12 prodFXPO - 3Q12 prod15-Oct-12FRES - 3Q12 prod,IMS22-Oct-1216-Oct-12RIO - 3Q12 prod23-Oct-12AQP - 1Q13 report17-Oct-12BHP - 1Q13 prod24-Oct-12NYR - IMS18-Oct-1225-Oct-12AAL - 3Q1
14、2 prod19-Oct-1226-Oct-12ABG - 3Q12 resultsNHY - 3Q12 resultsBoliden - 3Q12 reportKAZ - 3Q12 prod,IMS29-Oct-1230-Oct-1231-Oct-1201-Nov-1202-Nov-12ANTO - 3Q12 prod05-Nov-1206-Nov-1207-Nov-1208-Nov-1209-Nov-12VED - Interim resultsRRS - 3Q12 resultsENRC - 3Q12 prod,IMS12-Nov-1213-Nov-1214-Nov-1215-Nov-1
15、216-Nov-12LMI - 4Q12 prodSource: Deutsche Bank, Company websitePage 2ANTO - 3Q12 resultsDeutsche Bank AG/London8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewAggregate metal productionfor stocks under coverageFigure 3: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q11F3Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12FQoQYoYBas
16、e metalsCopperAluminiumNickelZincKtKtKtKt130218007663611961834667271253195074721118419517073913321982797481241185075774132517778676613761808867554%2%0%-1%16%-7%23%2%BulksIron oreCoking coalThermal coalMtMtMt98186788146699176610519711081871951670107187210919782%4%7%4%-3%10%Precious metalsGoldSilverPG
17、MK OzK OzK Oz9772957018948682539515071037296471558102427185170596230067158187928568119196332173154910533321615289%3%-1%3%22%-10%Source: Company reports, Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 38 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewAfrican Barrick GoldLooking for a QoQ improvement, bu
18、t Q4 will be the big oneFigure 4: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12FQoQYoYBulyanhuluTulawakaBuzwagiNorth MaraAttributable productionAttributable saleskozkozkozkozkozkoz68.611.944.554.6179.6201.666.313.756.337.6173.9172.069.315.141.646.0172.0185.162.114.160.745.5182.41
19、83.664.416.037.941.7160.1158.861.811.236.335.4144.6145.469.87.434.541.5153.1157.266.610.345.156.3178.4178.4-5%40%31%36%16%13%7%-27%-26%24%-2%-3%Source: Company reports, Deutsche BankPage 4Deutsche Bank AG/London8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewAfrican MineralsA rain impacted quart
20、er before the steady ramp-upFigure 5: Quarterly Sales numbersUnits3Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12F4Q12FQoQYoY20112012FIron ore salesLumpFinesAll In 32TotalMtMtMtMt0.00.00.00.00.00.00.20.20.30.40.41.10.00.01.51.50.20.20.20.60.50.41.01.9-100%-100%257%33%NANANANA0.00.00.20.21.01.03.15.1Source: Company data, Deuts
21、che BankDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 58 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewAnglo AmericanExpecting a strong quarter with little impact from strikesso farFigure 6: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12FQoQYoYPlatinum SegmentPlatinumPalladiumRhodiumNickelEquiv
22、 refined platinumDiamonds (100% basis)Copper SegmentNickel Segmentkozkozkoztonskoz000 ctstonstons8725031115,0006408,532154,4004,400533288854,8005687,396138,8006,100641374805,5005938,137150,3006,600647376754,9006679,305139,9006,500710393975,1005836,489170,0009,900403235544,7005936,208168,40012,000623
23、356755,4005847,241161,10010,900653372795,6575827,001159,38111,9375%5%5%5%0%-3%-1%10%1%-1%5%15%-13%-25%14%84%Iron Ore & ManganeseIron OreManganese AlloysKtKt11,808779,9456911,5347612,1837812,4277811,6795512,9173013,077551%85%7%-29%Met Coal (Australia)MetallurgicalThermalKtKt3,8923,7282,1653,0023,9493
24、,0884,0153,9784,0613,3593,7432,5704,8463,2874,3823,150-10%-4%9%-21%Thermal CoalRSA MetallurgicalRSA Thermal export +KtKt1035,885805,079835,264765,198845,846585,286165,801165,5060%-5%-79%6%domesticEskomColombia exportKtKt9,4852,3168,2752,6098,7832,5388,7512,8529,4872,7537,7632,9538,3263,1058,1122,953
25、-3%-5%-7%4%Source: Company data, Deutsche BankPage 6Deutsche Bank AG/London8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewAntofagastaImproving production on the back of EsperanzaFigure 7: Quarterly production numbers and cash costsUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12EQoQYoYGroup TotalTotal pro
26、duction of payable CopperTotal production of payable molyTotal production of payable goldCash cost - pre by-product creditsCash cost - post by-product creditsktktkozc/lbc/lb127.52.19.3157.7123.4129.82.322.1155.8107.8158.72.648.6159.4103.8165.02.454.3155.1100.5187.02.671.8151.397.3162.93.163.5163.698
27、.1173.23.472.6158.299.3181.62.778.4167.1103.65%-20%8%6%4%10%13%44%8%3%Los PelambresPayable copper in concentratePayable molyPayable goldCash costs - pre by-productsCash costs - post by-productsktktkozc/lbc/lb92.32.1145.398.091.22.37.2130.875.2101.22.610.9130.775.2104.92.48.8127.882.5114.42.612.9123.
28、579.595.93.111.9141.075.6101.33.414.5133.578.0100.42.711.3140.078.0-1%-20%-22%5%0%-4%13%28%10%-5%EsperanzaPayable copperPayable goldCash costs - pre by-productsCash costs - post by-productsktktc/lbc/lb7.415.0302.4144.921.937.7260.1114.125.245.5241.372.435.658.9201.059.130.551.7206.161.737.758.1180.2
29、58.944.267.2200.079.417%16%11%35%75%48%-17%10%El TesoroCopper cathodes from El Tesorokt18.215.118.020.022.824.722.022.52%12%and Tesoro North-East open pitsCopper cathodes from ROMTotal copper cathodesCash costsktktc/lb5.723.8192.85.220.3195.26.924.9173.04.524.5161.94.627.4161.43.528.2147.82.524.5167
30、.43.7526.2156.850%7%-6%-17%7%-3%MichillaCopper cathodesCash costsktc/lb11.3184.311.0192.210.7192.710.3205.69.6268.58.3323.29.7306.010.9310.012%1%5%51%TransportRail tonnage transportedRoad tonnage transportedktkt1619506152446116514731618481162748114904421538380178844216%16%11%-8%WaterWater volume sol
31、d000 m312392122961168911765125451296012695126950%8%Source: Company data, Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 78 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewAquarius PlatinumProduction significantly down due to the shuttering of Marikanaand Everest. Kroondal performance is key.Figure 8: Qu
32、arterly production numbersUnitDec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-11Jun-11Sep-12EQoQYoYProduction by MineKroondalMarikanaEverestMimosaCTRPPlatinum mileTotalkozkozkozkozkozkozkoz119.432.825.147.01.54.123095.823.927.751.31.310.121789.221.427.055.60.74.720288.926.023.153.80.73.119686.828.818.750.51.13.31
33、8976.926.415.952.11.43.517682.221.515.354.61.72.817887.10.00.026.82.03.01196%-100%-100%-51%13%5%-33%-2%-100%-100%-50%197%-4%-39%Production by Mine AttributableKroondalMarikanaEverestMimosaCTRPPlatinum mileTotalkozkozkozkozkozkozkoz59.716.425.123.50.72.112847.912.027.725.60.65.012244.610.727.027.80.3
34、2.311444.513.023.126.90.32.111043.414.418.725.20.63.310638.513.215.926.00.73.59841.110.815.327.30.92.89843.60.00.013.41.03.0616%-100%-100%-51%13%5%-38%-2%-100%-100%-50%197%43%-45%Source: Company data, Deutsche BankPage 8Deutsche Bank AG/Londontttt8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewB
35、HP BillitonA steady quarter, with the switch from gas to liquids starting topay off.Figure 9: Quarterly production numbersUnitsDec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12EQoQYoYPetroleumCrude oil & condensateNatural gasNatural gas liquidTotal Petroleum000 bblbcf000 bblmboe20,65282.52,84237.2519
36、,20084.92,44235.7918,652131.82,63743.2518,482177.43,35651.4018,866214.53,36257.9819,20084.92,44235.7915,726221.33,75856.3617,888215.93,72757.5914%-2%-1%2%-3%22%11%12%AluminiumAluminaAluminiumktkt1,0253149593051,0263131,0603151,0013139593051,0392481,17525113%1%11%-20%Base MetalsCopperLeadZincGoldSilv
37、erUraniumMolybdenumktouncesK Oz302.364,92536,94551,62611,571957485273.651,91040,25249,5599,0561063334272.358,57834,73345,5459,8771015418220.255,65923,44439,4399,1511000595280.366,99228,29844,00710,903909766273.651,91040,25249,5599,0561063334312.563,66730,74840,56911,5391080464287.864,81229,45850,410
38、11,3451073987-8%2%-4%24%-2%-1%113%31%16%26%28%24%7%66%Diamonds and SpecialtyProductsDiamonds000 carats67655157645748155141355234%21%Stainless Steel MaterialsNickelKt43.033.038.235.138.433.042.741.5-3%18%Iron OreIron OreKt33,66633,23135,52639,57241,07233,23140,89142,1403%6%ManganeseManganese OreManga
39、nese AlloyKtKt1829192135217217901902019194180619513521722066751950125-6%67%-3%-35%Metallurgical CoalMetallurgical CoalKt77876670792292918493667081097350-9%-21%Energy CoalEnergy CoalKt16513175431833818460169191754318484187601%2%Source: Company data, Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 9t8 Octobe
40、r 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewBolidenA slightly weaker quarter due to routine refurbishmentsFigure 10: Quarterly production numbers and summary financialsUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12FQoQYoYMetal ProductionZincCopperLeadGoldSilverktktktkgt792113112169732113857597220129935474201
41、410016264201182856741913898557620149456269181393056-9%-10%-5%-2%-9%-7%-9%-6%-7%-9%Refined ProductionZincCopperLeadLead AlloysGoldSilverSulphuric Acidktktktktkgkt1178541339051134131168251133751244061117621229671233441189027333712243611488212317012041111885511386915143311682311454014937410486294026122
42、348-10%6%-42%-17%-11%-18%-7%-12%-4%15%35%21%0%-20%FinancialsRevenuesMine EBITMarginSmelter EBITMarginTotal EBITNPATEPSSEK mSEK m%SEK m%SEK mSEK mSEKps101201,21743%1,02611%1,9421,4135.2101581,15644%841%1,3599613.598961,06440%1562%1,1348042.9105531,04741%1401%1,1808373.1971664627%4104%1,0757872.910321
43、82233%6316%1,4991,0894.01036472631%781%7695161.9931075832%4064%11247572.8-10%4%420%46%47%47%-12%-28%190%-5%-10%-10%Source: Company data, Deutsche BankPage 10Deutsche Bank AG/Londontt8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewENRCExpecting a pick-up after an uncharacteristically weak Q2Figur
44、e 11: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12FQoQYoYFerro-alloys Ore ProductionSaleable Chrome oreInternal consumptionSaleable Manganesektktkt982807218926786172959800281921762359762715197755732176974734271942793283-3%8%4%2%4%-21%concentrateInternal consumptionkt909910410477
45、1001011021%-2%Ferro-alloys SaleableProductionFerrochrome- High-carbon- Medium-carbon- Low-carbonFerrosilicochromeSilico-manganeseFerro-siliconTotal Ferroalloysktktktktktktktkt32529212212142123993232881323124613395325289122415451239831728114221547113892942591322213610360295261132123461237630026412241
46、9471237831828014241948133986%6%17%0%1%2%8%5%0%-1%0%9%28%2%18%2%Iron Ore DivisionOre Extraction (RoM)Primary concentrate productionSaleable concentratektktkt10,8764,3892,01310,7154,2871,67510,6174,4972,00411,3584,6292,55010,5224,2242,23010,2044,1782,0219,8933,8901,80310,1854,2781,7783%10%-1%-10%-8%-3
47、0%productionSaleable pellet productionkt2,1322,2282,0981,6771,6441,8911,7962,25025%34%Alumina & Aluminium DivisionAlumina salesAluminium productionktkt292622856228962307633076321062256622956615%6%-4%4%Other Non-ferrous divisionCopper Ore extraction (RoM)Saleable copper containedCobalt ore extraction
48、 (RoM)Saleable cobalt containedktkt3434,9922842,0003986,5722462,8053667,3612452,6664867,5962423,0994208,0803252,8534298,9883382,7364188,5053412,6154659,7403702,75011%15%9%5%-4%28%53%-11%Energy DivisionCoal extraction (RoM)Energy Division consumption ofktkt5,6972,3585,8022,3394,3631,9124,2721,9405,67
49、32,4085,8662,4434,3921,9724,5003,1082%58%5%60%CoalElectricity generationSales of electricity to otherGWhGWh3,7892,5503,7812,4463,1182,5563,1612,5793,9322,4263,9482,4973,2292,5443,6142,89112%14%14%12%group divisionsSource: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimatesDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 11tttttttt8 O
50、ctober 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewFresnilloA steady improvement in silver production lead by SaucitoFigure 12: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q112Q113Q11FQoQYoYTotal Production -AttributableSilverSilver streamTotal silverGoldLeadZinckozkozkozoz9,59690810,504100,
51、8225,0365,8059,0831,01010,09396,4075,2455,86410,46190611,367110,0705,3575,5659,14891910,067119,7685,3405,7519,2571,08810,345122,6215,5015,9328,7691,0279,797121,7926,2656,9259,1431,13310,276127,0036,5796,6409,42096910,389126,6946,5506,5593%-14%1%0%0%-1%3%5%3%6%23%14%Fresnillo mineSilverGoldLeadZincko
52、zoz9,0377,4013,3483,0978,5326,1343,3653,2218,3346,3503,3743,3586,4166,0753,1712,9687,0147,6783,4753,0766,7488,7314,2774,1256,6187,1494,4254,1846,7017,2404,3724,1891%1%-1%0%4%19%38%41%Saucito mineSilverGoldLeadZinckozoz1,7458,2995012452,32112,7016665331,65111,6625173491,49411,3584853491,75410,3626613
53、621,85310,2127724296%-1%17%19%-20%-20%16%-20%Cienega mineSilverGoldLeadZinckozoz27529,1551,6282,66827526,9561,8222,59830126,4201,4821,96236632,3071,5022,25053231,1571,5092,50846631,5461,5032,45172433,7851,4942,09481924,7831,4061,94113%-27%-6%-7%124%-23%-6%-14%Herradura mine (56%)SilverGoldkozoz6544,
54、4627641,9746646,2523546,4984948,8044946,7223547,6723346,413-4%-3%-4%0%Soledad-Dipolos mine(56%)SilverGoldkozOz1118,4691420,5111522,7491022,1871123,3211221,209917,655917,6870%0%-10%-20%Noche Buena (56%)SilverGoldkozOz12,227310,379411,40048%10%NANASource: Company data, Deutsche BankPage 12Deutsche Ban
55、k AG/London8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewFerrexpoAnother steady quarterFigure 13: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12FQoQYoYProduction from own raw materialsIron OreConcentratektkt7,3412,8437,0162,7097,1822,8657,4972,9507,9422,9627,5462,8437,4312,8
56、977,5482,8512%-2%1%-3%Pellets- 62% Fe- 65% FeTotal Pelletsktktkt1,2461,04622921,0381,08621241,2171,05322711,2581,07523341,2941,04123361,1981,05922581,2311,07523051,3581,111246910%3%7%8%3%6%Production/reprocessing from purchased raw materialsPellets- 62% Fe- 65% FeTotal PelletsTotal Pellets produced-
57、 62% Fe- 65% Fektktktktktkt472462942,5861,2931,293341461802,3031,0711,232561552112,4821,2741,20864741382,4721,3231,149511682182,5541,3451,209534572,3151,2521,06353521052,4101,2841,1270002,4691,3581,111-100%-100%-100%2%6%-1%-100%-100%-100%0%3%-3%Source: Company data, Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/Lon
58、donPage 138 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewKazakhmysWe forecast a sequential recovery in copper productionFigure 14: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12EQoQYoYCopperOre extractionAverage Copper gradeCopper in Concentrate- own concentrate- purchased co
59、ncentrateCopper cathode equivalentkt%ktktktkt8,1291.0883.083.00.067.17,8950.9972.071.90.174.28,4621.0381810.4798,4661.0077.977.10.873.98,4291.0173.772.80.973.58,4910.9971.570.90.665.18,9960.9876.976.10.871.09,3120.9681.480.41.076.24%-2%6%6%25%7%10%-4%4%4%25%3%production- own concentrate- purchased c
60、oncentrateCopper rodktktkt64.40.08.174.10.18.9790.0773.90.08.171.61.98.064.50.66.270.20.82.975.20.95.07%18%72%2%NA-38%Copper by-productsZinc in concentratekt41.136.23938.125.931.739.929.0-27%-24%SilverTotal Silver- own productionkozkoz3,8243,8112,3322,3324,4364,4303,0913,0843,2733,2692,7972,7942,842
61、2,8393,0613,0618%8%-1%-1%GoldTotal Gold- own productionkozkoz33.929.119.319.3463740.729.440.332.629.327.023.318.535.834.654%87%-12%18%PowerNet power generatedNet dependable capacityGWhMW3,2812,2243,5572,2252,8382,1852,8042,1573,4982,2313,9602,2553,0972,1893,1532,1892%0%12%1%Source: Company data, Deu
62、tsche Bank estimatesPage 14Deutsche Bank AG/London8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewLonminGuidance should mitigate a negative surprise on sales.Figure 15: Quarterly production numbersUnitsDec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12FQoQYoYMetals in ConcentrateMarikana-Platinum-
63、Palladium-Gold-Rhodium-Ruthenium-IridiumTotal PGMsozozozozozozoz175,76982,7594,45923,35236,3577,997330,694168,02078,6604,67421,63034,7347,567315,284158,49073,5533,87420,94033,1657,088297,110191,87089,6844,46125,73640,1148,642360,509178,13181,0414,66422,46335,3497,739329,387173,56478,7634,91821,87533
64、,6747,271320,065191,87787,9204,61325,54136,7147,912354,577110,70453,3553,11913,81824,2315,447210,673-42%-39%-32%-46%-34%-31%-41%-42%-41%-30%-46%-40%-37%-42%Pandora-Platinum-Palladium-Gold-Rhodium-Ruthenium-IridiumTotal PGMsozozozozozozoz4,6652,177327141,1141838,8866,4093,002459751,54025512,2265,7222
65、,683398681,38622610,9248,4453,985641,3082,03033216,1648,5953,993651,3212,01234516,3317,0143,238531,0801,64227013,2979,9494,661721,5752,25237318,8834,7742,785807961,273809,787-52%-40%11%-49%-43%-79%-48%-43%-30%24%-39%-37%-76%-39%Lonmin Platinum-Platinum-Palladium-Gold-Rhodium-Ruthenium-IridiumTotal P
66、GMsozozozozozozoz180,43384,9364,49124,06637,4728,180339,579174,43081,6614,71922,60536,2737,822327,510164,21276,2363,91321,80834,5517,314308,034200,31593,6694,52527,04442,1448,974376,673186,72585,0354,73023,77337,3618,084345,708181,17282,2274,97323,03035,4067,570334,378202,85192,9154,58827,23939,1118
67、,333375,136115,47856,1403,19914,61425,5045,526220,461-43%-40%-30%-46%-35%-34%-41%-42%-40%-29%-46%-39%-38%-41%Refined production-Platinum-Palladium-Gold-Rhodium-Ruthenium-IridiumTotal PGMsozozozozozozoz91,68278,2894,57324,45933,9417,424240,366225,152108,7324,95727,95762,46511,078440,343166,83276,5354
68、,30314,69037,5911,727301,678239,878109,4357,05833,61754,78511,285456,058113,95062,9423,86521,61638,3508,850245,950190,37977,7494,87131,80542,9837,803355,590186,86492,4895,33717,83341,7497,663351,935179,64986,6424,71423,64217,4325,432317,510-4%-6%-12%33%-58%-29%-10%-25%-21%-33%-30%-68%-52%-30%Source:
69、 Company data, Deutsche Bank estimatesDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 158 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewNorsk HydroStrong power sales should offset a weaker aluminium result to amodest extentFigure 16: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12EQoQYoYPrimary me
70、talAlumina productionPrimary aluminium productionCasthouse productionCasthouse salesktktktkt493360512494773415560568144850564965915535226416411490539613584146451460061714915025886051365508588588-8%1%0%-3%-12%-3%-8%-8%Metal marketsRemelt production-Sale of metal products from own production-Sale of t
71、hird-party productsTotal metal products sales excluding ingotktktktkt1516881471115073438772151831478781337915985013173073804152783768581426958277713066475739-8%-4%-9%-5%-2%-16%27%-13%tradingHereof external sales excluding ingot tradingkt491467533527564591638452-29%-14%Rolled ProductsSales Volume to
72、external marketkt2342452422282152272282290%0%Extruded ProductsSales Volume to external marketkt1271361421371211331371380%0%EnergyPower productionExternal Power sourcingInternal Contract salesExternal contract salesNet spot salesGWhGWhGWhGWhGWh226321673068535827230820963072377955183021393105264600273
73、7218330672141639270622583202332143031902113308234318792513212130912591284277922922911259190011%8%-6%0%48%2%5%-5%21%16%Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimatesPage 16Deutsche Bank AG/Londont8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewNyrstarLooking for an improvement in mining performanc
74、eFigure 17: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12EQoQYoYSmeltingZinc MetalAubyBalen/OverpeltBudelClarksvilleHobartPort PirieTotal ZincLead Metal (Port Pirie)Copper cathodeSilverGoldSulphuric acidktktktktktktktktktkozkoz41887031609291571.035347.835837856530687282511.140005
75、.736242806131707280531.144887.434242596714649246471.2494817.534943836835777318460.857467.037441576628588258390.9289316.034939636229798280461.0350714.031640706431656276471.0349816.43463%11%3%7%-18%-25%-1%2%-1%0%17%9%-5%19%-4%121%2%-33%12%0%-18%-29%-6%-1%MiningZinc in concentrateCampo Moradokt10.210.4
76、12.612.612111315%-1%Contonga & PucarrajoCoricanchaktkt0.30.53.00.32.50.32.20.72.40.7314-40-1%NA64%-51%EI MochitoEI Toquiktkt2.42.37.66.76663726%-40%NANALangloiskt31313Myra fallskt4.011.010892%NATennessee MinesTalvivaara MineTotal ZincGoldSilverLeadCopperktktktKozKozKtKt18.05.02441500.4-19.08.0417667
77、0.62.418.76.43966060.41.619.58.252149071.92.222.512.0762214135.03.42587516.113544.43.12387726.413044.13.92698225.715243.93.614%15%7%-3%17%-4%-8%35%10%58%80%68%107%0.6Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimatesDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 178 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewVedanta
78、More oil, and a bounceback in zinc. The Goa ban is yet to impactsales.Figure 18: Quarterly production numbersUnitsDec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12EQoQYoYZincZinc & Lead - Mined metalkt222.0231.0188.0209.9209.0223.2187.0192.63%-8%contentZinc refinedLead -refinedSilverktktkoz178.014.01
79、351194.018.01601192.516.01504184.517.01600191.029.01852189.537.02836161.031.02629178.036.0268011%16%2%-4%112%68%Zinc InternationalSkorpion Refined zincBlack Mountain & LisheenKtkt133744398037773471367136703066-17%-6%-19%-14%Iron OreSaleable Orekt4.75.54.41.123.34.93.41.2-64%9%Copper- India / Austral
80、iaCopper - Mined metal contentCopper - Cathodesktkt4.079.05.080.06.074.05.087.06.084.05.080.07.088.05.580.0-21%-9%10%-8%Copper ZambiaTotal Copper cathodesIntegratedCustomktktkt55.034.620.448.032.815.250.034.515.552.032.519.551.037.213.847.034.212.849.036.013.058.043.214.818%20%14%12%33%-24%AluminaLa
81、njigarhkt1471842242282362402182306%1%Total AluminiumAluminiumJharsugudaKorbaBALCO 270MW power salesTotal power salesSELMALCO, HZL WindktktktMWHrMWhrMWhrMWhr168103654401174293669170108624431512563698173112614431416113827814989603671436126716917010763382176615592071771156241219371674263185124603382329
82、19383911831206335532032847356-1%-3%5%5%38%47%-9%23%35%5%-3%123%125%111%Oil and GasOil/Condensate - GrossKboe/day180.3207.0211.52%NAOil/Condensate - Working interest Kboe/day107.3127.2134.26%NAOil/Condensate - GrossOil/Condensate - Working interestMboeMboe4.12.416.49.818.811.619.312.22%6%NANASource:
83、Company data, Deutsche Bank estimatesPage 18Deutsche Bank AG/London8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewRio TintoA strong quarter across the commodity spectrumFigure 19: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q12FQoQYoYPrincipal CommoditiesAluminaAluminiumBauxit
84、eBoratesHard coking coalThermal coalSemi-soft coking coalCopper - minedCopper - refinedDiamondsIron OreTitanium dioxide feedstockUraniumktktktktktktktktktkctktktklbs22929628,4621132,2785,153797185993,19950,0513733,27621179448,0671201,6284,022691141952,49841,8763291,42722409588,7261441,7754,758689127
85、902,73348,8513521,04022359629,1781272,7744,575733109683,53449,8343812,37323559619,4661142,6384,436746137812,96751,2063802,21823918548,8411201,7034,139606120743,35945,6433741,98623588419,4421322,0014,7731,003134492,80848,6313701,81025308649,2801352,2005,0611,203145934,35550,2985832,4017%3%-2%2%10%6%2
86、0%8%88%55%3%58%33%13%-10%1%6%-21%11%64%33%36%23%1%53%1%Other Metals & MineralsGold - minedGold - refinedMolybdenumSaltSilver - minedSilver - refinedkozkozktktkozkoz1921124.21,4271,8491,094130993.71,1481,2939031681054.31,7321,281868169883.41,7981,088664155872.31,9311,257754781003.11,46093581775552.61
87、,85987746786563.21,6001,27870014%2%22%-14%46%50%-49%-36%-7%-11%18%5%Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estmatesDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 198 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewRandgold ResourcesAnother record quarterFigure 20: Quarterly production numbersUnits4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q
88、122Q123Q12EQoQYoYLouloTonnes milledHead grade milledRecoveryProduction(000)(g/t)(%)Oz8293.391%80,3328912.587%62,1498712.786%65,5786022.989%51,0803073.489%29,6002883.089%24,8002964.492%38,2275304.389%65,25779%-2%71%-12%47%28%GounkotoTonnes milledHead grade milledRecoveryProduction(000)(g/t)(%)Oz806.3
89、87%14,0612624.890%36,0006075.189%87,7006993.590%71,6507944.092%94,2545504.592%72,701-31%11%-23%110%-6%102%MorilaTonnes processedHead grade milledRecoveryProductionAttributable production(000)(g/t)(%)Oz1,1561.891%59,10223,6411,114289%55,71622,2861,1411.991%62,25024,9001,1301.892%60,95524,3821,1342.19
90、2%69,73727,8951,1551.691%54,63121,8521,1021.792%54,05221,6211,1021.792%55,33022,1320%2%2%2%-2%-7%-9%-9%TongonTonnes milledHead grade milledRecoveryProductionAttributable production(000)(g/t)(%)Oz3552.792%28126132,0997012.694%54,968139,4039012.994%80,100184,6397553.291%70,910182,3726062.785%44,332189
91、,5277562.480%47,141165,4438532.582%56,432210,5348302.685%58,886218,976-3%3%4%4%10%-19%-17%20%Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimatesPage 20Deutsche Bank AG/London8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewResearch ContributionThe authors of this report wish to acknowledge the contribu
92、tion made by Abhishek Bansaland Ravindra Bhandari, employees of Irevna, a division of CRISIL Limited, a third-partyprovider to Deutsche Bank of offshore research support services.Deutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 212508 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAddit
93、ional information available upon requestFor disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite at http:/ Certificatio
94、nThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about thesubject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receiveany compensation for providing a specific recommendation or vi
95、ew in this report. Rob Clifford/Grant SporreEquity rating keyEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsBuy: Based on a current 12- month view of totalshare-holder return (TSR = percentage change inshare price from current price to projected target price40035030042 %53 %plus pro-jected divide
96、nd yield ) , we recommend thatinvestors buy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months20015010050038 %Buy29 %Hold6 %42 %Sellout and, based on this time horizon, do notreco
97、mmend either a Buy or Sell.Notes:Companies CoveredCos. w/ Banking Relationship1. Newly issued research recommendations andtarget prices always supersede previously publishedresearch.2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or more o
98、ver a 12-month periodEuropean UniverseHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month periodPage 22Deutsche Bank AG/London8 October 2012Metals & Mining3Q12 production previewRegu
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