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1、中国中国2050能源和排放情景研究能源和排放情景研究Energy and Emission Scenario up to 2050 for China姜克隽Jiang Kejun能源研究所Energy Research Institute中国2050情景构架Scenario Framework好的能源安全效果Good effects on energy security坏的气候变化效果Bad effects on Climate Change坏的能源安全效果Bad effects on energy security好的气候变化效果Good effects on Climate ChangeB
2、aU ScenarioHigh GDP low carbon scenarioHigh GDP Enhanced Low Carbon ScenarioLow GDP Low Carbon ScenarioFramework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC)ERI, ChinaERI, ChinaIPAC-SGMIPAC-AIM/techIPAC-EmissionIPAC/Tech(Power/Transport)IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarmIPAC-TIMERIPAC/AIM-LocalEnergy demand and su
3、pplyPrice/investmentEconomic impactMedium/long-term analysisMedium/short term analysisTechnology assessmentDetailed technology flowRegion analysisMedium/short analysisEnergy demand and supplyTechnology policyIPAC-AIM/MATERIALEnergy demand and supplyFull range emissionPrice, resource, technologyMediu
4、m-long term analysisEconomic impactEnvironment industryPollutant emissionMedium/long-term analysisTechnology developmentEnvironment impactTechnology policyAIM-airIPAC-healthEnergy demand and supplyPrice/investmentMedium/long-term analysisShort term forecast/ energy early warningClimate ModelIPAC/Gai
5、ns-Asia2050低碳情景模型分析框架Methodology frameworkGlobal ModelIPAC-EmissionEnergy technology modelIPAC-AIM/technologyEnergy economic modelIPAC-CGEGlobal energy demand and supplyGlobal GHG EmissionGlobal TargetBurden sharingEnergy import/exportEnergy PriceReduction costFuture economic sector detailEnergy int
6、ensive industryReduction costChina energy and emission scenariosEnergy demand by sectorsEnergy supply Reduction costGDP by industry sectors: What is the meaning of Low Carbon EconomyInvestment by industrial sectors主要高耗能行业发展Products output in major sectors, BaU 主要高耗能行业发展Products output in major secto
7、rs, Low Carbon and ELC PopulationSteel production process in ChinaCoke makingSinteringIron makingPig IronConvertorOpen HearthElectric FurnaceDirectReductionDIOSorCOREXRecycledsteelCastingHeatingHot Rolling SteelHeatingCool Rolling SteelContinuous CastingSteel making高效照明【如 LED照明】光伏电池能源检测系统（家用电器)生态生活教
8、育减少 60% 采暖需求,普及率70%(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池，转换效率接近30%COP =8, 普及率 100%超高效空调太阳热利用普及率: 20-60%（目前 6%）热泵采暖COP5普及率 30-70%燃料电池普及率 0-20%高效绝热减少50%照明需求，普及率 100%待机电源耗电降低1/3 ， 普及率100%2050年的低碳住宅年的低碳住宅舒适和节能舒适和节能屋顶植被5太阳能利用高效家用电器 减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式向公众提供经济和环境信息促使大家成为低碳消费减少10-20% 能源需求 - “领跑者项目已经实现 -刺激竞争和革新, -促进现有节能技术普及 -增
9、加经济竞争力 -创造了“双赢”局面，进入良性循环.日本领跑者项目: 提高能源效率(Source) JEMA (2002)图 冰箱效率Parameter of Urban HouseholdDistribution of Cities in ChinaPopulation, million机动车普及率机动车普及率Car Ownership辆辆/千人千人CanadaFranceIndiaItaly韩国韩国台湾台湾USUKGreeceSpainSweden010020030040050060005,00010,00015,00020,00025,000GDP per Capita (1997 $ P
10、PP)Source: RIIA, 1997 Chatham House Forum中国2030汇率法中国2030PPP法新加坡北京2007北京2020杭州2007香港上海2007东营2005明显的左移效应Vehicle fleet, BaU, 10000Vehicle fleet, Low Carbon scenario, 10000Transport, Low carbon scenario基准情景与低碳情景的对比政策选择Unit energy use for key products, LCS ScenarioIPCC RangeInvestment Demand of Energy In
11、dustry020004000600080001000020002005201020202030YearA hundred millionBase scenarioPolicy scenario28National Energy Expenses05000010000015000020000020002005201020202030YearA hundred millionBase scenarioPolicy scenario31Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030: Energy Bureau2050 Low carbon Society
12、Emission Scenarios: MOE(Japan), Defra(UK)New IPCC ScenariosCCICED low carbon scenariosChinese Academy of Engineering: 2050 Energy Strategy, energy ceiling.Post-Kyoto Options for ChinaSector based approach analysis: case study for power generation in ChinaLow Carbon Scenario in Province and Cities: Guangdong, Hongkong, Jilin, Jilin City, Baoding, Shanghai, Beijing, ShijiazhuangAEEMF: Asian ScenariosEmbedded Carbon: international trade, final productsOther relative studies: 2008-2010
