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1、公共舆论 （李普曼）精品课程精品课程沃尔特李普曼 (Walter Lippmann，18891974) 李普曼李普曼 生平简介生平简介v1889年9月生于纽约，是德国犹太人第二代移民后裔。v念完学士后，李普曼继续留在哈佛攻读研究生，再此期间，任桑塔亚纳教授的助手，协助讲授哲学史。v1910年夏末，著名“耙粪记者”林肯斯蒂芬斯来哈佛招助手，经过与哈佛教授磋商后，选择了李普曼。从此李普曼涉及新闻工作，此后供职于多家媒体。v1912年他辞去一切职务，前往缅因州，撰写政治序论。政治序论出版后获得成果成功，西奥多罗斯福对此书推崇备至，与李普曼往来交换意见。v1914年趋势与主宰问世，它和政治序论一道引起
2、人们广泛注意。同年与人合办新共和杂志，担任副主编。第一次世界大战期间曾任美国陆军部部长助理。v1921年至1931年，任纽约世界报编辑、主编，10年间为其撰写了大量社论(后汇为10卷出版)，享誉一时。v1931年世界报停刊后，在纽约先驱论坛报上开设“今日与明日”专栏，所写专栏被国内外250家报刊转载。v1932年与菲耶离婚，与海伦阿姆斯特朗结婚。v1961年1月，“今日与明日”转到新闻周刊刊载，由华盛顿邮报辛迪加向国内外转发，直到1967年3月最后一期。v1964年9月，林登约翰逊总统在李普曼75岁生日前授予其总统自由勋章。授勋书上写道：“他以精辟的见解和独特的洞察力，对这个国家和世界的事务进
3、行了深刻的分析，从而开阔了人们的思想境界。” v1967年退休，继续为新闻周刊等撰写评论。v1974年85岁生日时，纽约市授予他最高荣誉青铜奖。v作为美国著名的新闻评论家和作家，60年的工作使他成为世界上最有名的政治专栏作家之一，他的专栏评论被不止250家美国报纸和大约25家国外报纸刊用，同时它还分别为50多家杂志撰稿。他获得了1958度普利策新闻奖。 李普曼李普曼 主要著作主要著作v外交的主宰1915年，国际问题的第一部著作。 v道德序言1919年 v自由与新闻1920年 v舆论学(Public Opinion)1921年 v鬼影般的公众1925年 v命运的人1926年 v美国的检查官192
4、8年 v美国在世界事务中(与威廉斯克罗格斯合著)1931、32、33年 v解释1932年、1933-1935年 v自由的方法1934年 v新的需要1935年 v战争与和平札记1940年 v美国的外交政策共和国的盾牌1943年 v美国的战争目标1944年 v冷战1947年 v公共哲学论文集1955年 第一部分 导论 第一章 外部世界与我们头脑中的景象 Chapter I THE WORLD OUTSIDE AND THE PICTURES IN OUR HEADSv大洋中有一个岛屿，1914年时，那里住着几个英国人，法国人和德国人，岛上不通电缆，英国油轮每60天来一次。到了9月，油轮还没来，这些
5、岛民谈论的话题仍是最后那期报纸报道的即将对卡约夫人枪杀加斯东一案进行审判的消息。 There is an island in the ocean where in 1914 a few Englishmen, Frenchmen, and Germans lived. No cable reaches that island, and the British mail steamer comes but once in sixty days. In September it had not yet come, and the islanders were still talking about
6、 the latest newspaper which told about the approaching trial of Madame Caillaux for the shooting of Gaston Calmette.v因此，9月中旬的一天，他们抱着非同寻常的急切心情全都涌向码头，想听那位船长说说做出了什么样的裁决。但他们得知，6个星期以来，英国人和法国人为了协约的尊严正在同德国人作战。在这不可思议的6个星期中这些岛民仍然像朋友一样相处，而事实上他们已经成了敌人。 They learned that for over six weeks now those of them who
7、 were English and those of them who were French had been fighting in behalf of the sanctity of treaties against those of them who were Germans.For six strange weeks they had acted as if they were friends, when in fact they were enemies.v追溯既往就可以看到，我们在认识我们仍然生活于其中的那个环境时时多么地迂回曲折。出于优越的事后聪明，我们会坚持认为，他们必须认识
8、的那个世界和他们曾经认识的那个世界，经常是背道而驰的两回事。Looking back we can see how indirectly we know the environment in which nevertheless we live. We can see that the news of it comes to us now fast, now slowly; but that whatever we believe to be a true picture, we treat as if it were the environment itself.v这位理想化的霞飞成了一个复
9、合体，原料来自他，他的参谋部和他的军队多所赢得的胜利，以及人们对战争的绝望情绪，个人的遭遇和不幸和对未来胜利的期待。This ideal Joffre was compounded out of the victory won by him, his staff and his troops, the despair of the war, the personal sorrows, and the hope of future victory.v一个人对于并未亲身经历的事件所能产生的唯一情感，就是被他内心对那个事件的想象所激发起来的情感。这就可以说明为什么我们在了解别人的思想之前，不可能真正
10、理解他们的行为。The only feeling that anyone can have about an event he does not experience is the feeling aroused by his mental image of that event. That is why until we know what others think they know, we cannot truly understand their acts.v对于所有这些事例，我们尤其应当注意一个共同的因素，那就是楔入在人和环境之间的虚拟环境。他们的虚拟环境，世界在他们内心形成的图像，
11、是他们思想，感情和行为中的决定性因素。In all these instances we must note particularly one common factor. It is the insertion between man and his environment of a pseudo-environment. To that pseudo-environment his behavior is a response. But because it is behavior, the consequences, if they are acts, operate not in th
12、e pseudo-environment where the behavior is stimulated, but in the real environment where action eventuates.v对世界的想象方式，决定着人们在任何特定时刻将要作出的行为。它并不决定人们的成功与否。For it is clear enough that under certain conditions men respond as powerfully to fictions as they do to realities, and that in many cases they help t
13、o create the very fictions to which they respond.v因此，对于舆论进行分析的起点，应该是认识活动舞台，舞台形象和人对那个活动舞台上自行产生的形象所做的反应之间的三角关系。The analyst of public opinion must begin then, by recognizing the triangular relationship between the scene of action, the human picture of that scene, and the human response to that picture
14、working itself out upon the scene of action.v比如，两个交战国家都会确信自己是在采取自卫行动，为什么两个争斗不已的阶级都在一口咬定自己是共同利益的代言人。我们可能会说，他们生活在不同的世界。但更准确地说，他们生活在同一个世界，但却认为并感到不共戴天。It is like a play suggested to the actors by their own experience, in which the plot is transacted in the real lives of the actors, and not merely in the
15、ir stage parts. The moving picture often emphasizes withgreat skill this double drama of interior motive and external behavior.v外部世界的这些特征，我们简约地称作公共事务。这些特征当然与他人的表现有关，只要他人的表现与我们的表现相抵触，就会受到我们的左右，或者引起我们的关注。Those features of the world outside which have to do with the behavior of other human beings, in s
16、o far as that behavior crosses ours, is dependent upon us, or is interesting to us, we call roughly public affairs.v他人脑海中的图像关于自身，关于别人，关于他们的需求，意图和人际关系的图像，就是他们的舆论。这些对人类群体或以群体名义行事的个人产生着影响的图像，就是大写的舆论。The pictures inside the heads of these human beings, the pictures of themselves, of others, of their nee
17、ds, purposes, and relationship, are their public opinions.第二部分 对外部世界的研究PART II APPROACHES TO THE WORLD OUTSIDE 第二章 审查与保密 CHAPTER II CENSORSHIP AND PRIVACY 一致作战军队的总参谋部能如此大范围地控制将被公众看到的东西。它决定哪些记者能上前线，控制他们在前线的活动，审读他们发自前线的消息，并操纵着无线电广播。 The General Staff of an army in the field is so placed that within wi
18、de limits it can control what the public will perceive. It controls the selection of correspondents who go to the front, controls their movements at the front, reads and censors their messages from the front, and operates the wires.v它靠合法权力，也靠特务机关，控制出版商，控制公共集会。因此，当局并没有让公众对将军们了解的所有事实真相发挥影响，而只是向他们展示了某些
19、事实，只有采取这种方式才最有可能稳定人心。It emphasizes it by legal power over publishers, over public meetings, and by its secret service. But in the case of an army the control is far from perfect. There is always the enemys communique, which in these days of wireless cannot be kept away from neutrals. Above all there
20、 is the talk of the soldiers, which blows back from the front, and is spread about when they are on leave.v如果没有某种形式的审查制度，这个世界就不可能存在严格意义上的宣传。为了进行某种宣传，就必须在公众与时间之间设置某些屏障。在一个人创造出他认为明智而可取的虚拟环境之前，必须限制他接近真实环境。Without some form of censorship, propaganda in the strict sense of the word is impossible. In orde
21、r to conduct a propaganda there must be some barrier between the public and the event. Access to the real environment must be limited, before anyone can create a pseudo-environment that he thinks wise or desirable.v无论保密的理由是言之凿凿还是牵强附会，屏障都是存在的。然而，军事审查是最简单的屏障方式，但决不是最重要的，因为它的存在已为总所周知，因而在某种程度上得到了人们的赞同，并且
22、不大被当回事。Whether the reasons for privacy are good or bad, the barriers exist. Privacy is insisted upon at all kinds of places in the area of what is called public affairs. It is often very illuminating, therefore, to ask yourself how you got at the facts on which you base your opinion. 第三章第三章 交往与机会交往与
23、机会 CHAPTER III CONTACT AND OPPORTUNITYv虽然审查和保密在源头上截住了大量信息，但更大量的事实本来就不会传到整个公众那里，或者传得非常缓慢。因为观念有着截然不同的传播范围。While censorship and privacy intercept much information at its source, a very much larger body of fact never reaches the whole public at all, or only very slowly. For there are very distinct limit
24、s upon the circulation of ideas.v有些养尊处优的人们把他们的大部分闲暇和闲钱用于开车兜风和品评汽车用于打桥牌和品评牌技，用于喋喋不休对同一些唠叨几乎没有变化的同一些话题。实际上他们不可能被要求接受审查，不可能被要求保守秘密，不可能感受到交流的高昂代价和严重困难。 There are portions of the sovereign people who spend most of their spare time and spare money on motoring and comparing motor cars, on bridge-whist and
25、post-mortems, on moving-pictures and potboilers, talking always to the same people with minute variations on the same old themes. They cannot really be said to sufferfrom censorship, or secrecy, the high cost or the difficulty of communication.v他们对于人类舞台几乎一无所知，既不想上台表演，对台上的表演也不感兴趣。他们的问题并不是接触外部世界。众多的兴趣
26、领域在等待他们探索，但他们却不想进入。They suffer from anemia, from lack of appetite and curiosity for the human scene. Theirs is no problem of access to the world outside. Worlds of interest are waiting for them to explore, and they do not enter.v一个圈子的绝大多数成员都会满足于生活在这个圈子中，实际上是把它看作了整个世界，社交领袖们除了要熟知自己这个圈子的情况以外，还要不断认识它在整个
27、社交界的等级体系中所处的地位。Where most of the members of a set live complacently within the set, regarding it for all practical purposes as the world, the social leaders must combine an intimate knowledge of the anatomy of their own set with a persistent sense of its place in the hierarchy of sets.v在社交圈子的等级体系中，每
28、个社交圈子的相对地位都有着非常明确的形象。处在同一个层次的圈子之间，交往时没有障碍的。The hierarchy, in fact, is bound together by the social leaders. At any one level there is something which might almost be called a social set of the social leaders.v组成最高社交圈子的人们体现着“大社会”的领导权。这个“最上流社会”几乎不理睬任何一个两眼只盯着地方事务的社交圈子，在那里，战争与和平，社会战略的重大决策以及最高政治权利的分配，都是在
29、一个至少是潜在的熟人圈子里进行的。The highest social set consists of those who embody the leadership of the Great Society. As against almost every other social set where the bulk of the opinions are first hand only about local affairs, in this Highest Society the big decisions of war and peace, of social strategy an
30、d the ultimate distribution of political power, are intimate experiences within a circle of what, potentially at least, are personal acquaintances. 第四章第四章 时间与注意力时间与注意力 CHAPTER IV TIME AND ATTENTIONv霍奇基斯和弗兰肯曾向纽约市的1761名大学生发放了一份调查表，答卷基本收回。斯科特则向芝加哥的4000位知名实业家和专业人士发放了一份调查表，收回2300份答卷。A questionnaire was s
31、ent by Hotchkiss and Franken to 1761 men and women college students in New York City, and answers came from all but a few. Scott used a questionnaire on four thousand prominent business and professional men in Chicago and received replies from twenty-three hundred.v答复了这两项调查的人，总计有70-75%认为自己一天能用15分钟的时
32、间读报。芝加哥只有4%的人认为不足这个时间，25%的人多于这个时间。8%多一点的纽约人读报时间不足15分钟，17.5%多于15分钟。 Nearly seventy-one percent based their conscious preference on local news (17.5%), or political (15.8%) or financial (11.3%), orforeign (9.5%), or general (7.2%), or editorials (9%). The other thirty percent decided on grounds not co
33、nnected with public affairs. v 极少有人会精确地卡着15分钟，所以对这些数字不能从字面上去理解。此外，绝大多数实业家，专业人士和大学生都有一种奇怪的小偏见，认为不必花太多的时间去读报，同时，也许应当多少怀疑一下，他们想要表现得像是些眼疾手快的读者。Very few people have an accurate idea of fifteen minutes, so the figures are not to be taken literally.Moreover, business men, professional people, and college s
34、tudents are most of them liable to a curious little bias against appearing to spend too much time over the newspapers, and perhaps also to a faint suspicion of a desire to be known as rapid readers.v所有这些能被合理采用的数字都表明，3/4以上的受调查者对于书面上的外部世界的新闻所给予的注意力都相当之低。These time estimates are fairly well confirmed b
35、y a test which is less subjective. Scott asked his Chicagoans how many papers they read each day.v我们的时间和注意力有限，不愿费力注意那些还没有被视为理所当然的意见，而且我们很不容易受到不断的干扰。No elaborate deductions are to be drawn from these figures. They help merely to make somewhat more concrete our notions of the effort that goes day by d
36、ay into acquiring the data of our opinions. 第五章第五章 速度，词语和清晰度速度，词语和清晰度 CHAPTER V SPEED, WORDS, AND CLEARNESSv就算是个文法大师，他能否把过去几个月来发生在朝鲜的事情完全公正地塞进这百十个字以说明全部事实真相，这是很值得怀疑的。因为语言绝不是一个完美的达意工具。It is doubtful whether a supreme master of style could pack all the elements of truth that complete justice would dem
37、and into a hundred word account of what had happened in Korea during the course of several months. For language is by no means a perfect vehicle of meanings.v同一个词语在记者与读者的头脑中是否能唤起同一个想象，这谁都没有把握。There is no certainty whatever that the same word will call out exactly the same idea in the readers mind as
38、 it did in the reporters.v我们用那些看懂了的词语唤起各种想法，构成了我们观点的绝大部分依据。世界太大，我们面对的情况太复杂，我们得到的信息又太少，因此，舆论的绝大部分就必定会出产生于想象。To them the words so acquired are the cue for a whole train of ideas on which ultimately a vote of untold consequences may be based. Necessarily the ideas which we allow the words we read to ev
39、oke form the biggest part of the original data of our opinions. The world isvast, the situations that concern us are intricate, the messages are few, the biggest part of opinion must be constructed in the imagination.v我们在使用“墨西哥”这个词语时，它在纽约居民的头脑中会产生一幅什么样的景象呢？很可能是某种混合景象，里面有沙滩，仙人掌，油井，或者还有即将受到浓烟滚滚的工业主义前景
40、的侵袭并且为人权而斗争的质朴的农民。When we use the word Mexico what picture does it evoke in a resident of New York? Likely as not, it is some composite of sand, cactus, oil wells, greasers, rum-drinking Indians, testy old cavaliers flourishing whiskers and sovereignty, or perhaps an idyllic peasantry la Jean Jacque
41、s, assailed by the prospect of smoky industrialism, and fighting for the Rights of Man.v头脑的清醒就在于有能力分辨出表面的相似，注意力到差异以及鉴别出变化。这是一种相对能力。The power to dissociate superficial analogies, attend to differences and appreciate variety is lucidity of mind.It is a relative faculty.v一个只是乘坐别人汽车的人不大可能在一辆福特车，一辆出租车和一辆
42、机动车之间看出更细致的差别。但是，如果同一个人能够拥有一辆自己的车开，那么他只需看一眼一辆汽车的后尾，就能描绘出汽化器的差别。A man who merely rides in other peoples automobiles may not rise to finer discrimination than between a Ford, a taxicab, and an automobile. But let that same man own a car and drive it, let him, as the psychoanalysts would say, project h
43、is libido upon automobiles, and he will describe a difference in carburetors by looking at the rear end of a car a city block away.v实验表明，我们被灌输的一些所谓情感冲突破坏了联想的速度，精度性和思想的质量。Those facts which belong together in the world have not yetbeen separated from those which happen to lie side by side in the strea
44、m of consciousness.v我们的公众舆论是间歇性地同各种情结发生着联系，同野心，经济利益，个人仇恨，种族偏见，阶级感情等等联系在一起，它们以各种方式歪曲着我们的看法，想法和言谈举止。We learn to understand why our addled minds seize so little with precision, why they are caught up and tossed about in a kind of tarantella by headlines and catch-words, why so often they cannot tell th
45、ings apart or discern identity in apparent differences.第三部分 成见PART III STEREOTYPES 第六章 成见 CHAPTER VI STEREOTYPES 我们每个人都是生活，工作在这个地球的一隅，在一个小圈子里活动，只有寥寥无几的知交，我们对具有广泛影响的公共事件充其量只能了解某个方面或某一片段。Each of us lives and works on a small part of the earths surface, moves in a small circle, and of these acquaintanc
46、es knows only a few intimately. Of any public event that has wide effects we see at best only a phase and an aspect.v我们的见解不可避免地涵盖着要比我们的直接观察更为广泛的空间，更为漫长的时间和更为庞杂的事物。因此，这些见解是由别人的报道和我们自己的想象拼合在一起的。Inevitably our opinions cover a bigger space, a longer reach of time, a greater number of things, than we ca
47、n directly observe. They have, therefore, to be pieced together out of what others have reported and what we can imagine.v 一篇报道乃是当事人和知情者的共同产物，其中那个旁观者的角色总是带着选择性的倾向，通常还会带有创造性。我们对事实的认识取决于我们所处的地位和我们的观察习惯。A report is the joint product of the knower and known, in which the role of the observer is always s
48、elective and usually creative. The facts we see depend on where we are placed, and the habits of our eyes.v一个见多识广的外行人和一个化学家对“金属”一次可能作出的定义会是多么大相径庭。在那位外行看来，金属大概就是指平滑，坚硬，有光泽，耀眼，体积小重量大，其特性包括砸不裂拉不断，冷了硬热了软，能保持给定的形状，抗挤压，耐腐蚀的东西。Dewey gives an example of how differently an experienced layman and a chemist mi
49、ght define the word metal. Smoothness, hardness, glossiness, and brilliancy, heavy weight for its size . the serviceable properties of capacity for being hammered and pulled without breaking, of being softened by heat and hardened by cold, of retaining the shape and form given, of resistance to pres
50、sure and decay, would probably be included in the laymans definition.v但化学家很可能会对这些审美与实用的特性忽略不计，而把金属定义为：与氧化合并生成氧化物的化学元素。But the chemist would likely as not ignore these esthetic and utilitarian qualities, and define a metal as any chemical element that enters into combination with oxygen so as to form
51、 a base.v 在未经专门训练的观察活动中，我们会选择那些很容易辨认的环境标志。这种标志反映的是观念，而这些观念则会由于我们丰富的想象力而膨胀。Thus out of forty trained observers writing a responsible account of a scene that had just happened before their eyes, more than a majority saw a scene that had not taken place.v在所有具有支配力的因素中，最让人难以琢磨，最有普遍性的就是创造并维护成见库的那些因素。在我们看到
52、世界之前就被告知它是什么摸样。我们在亲身经历之前就可以对绝大多数的事物进行想象。All of them had in the course of their lives acquired a series of images of brawls ,and these images flickered before their eyes. In one man these images displaced less than 20% of the actualscene, in thirteen men more than half. In thirty-four out of the fort
53、y observers the stereotypes preempted at least one-tenth of the scene.v除非所受的教育能使我们具有敏锐的意识，否则这些先入之见就会强烈影响到整个感知过程。它们会把某些客体划分为亲疏两类，突出其间的差异，这样一来，似曾相识的就会使人认为各位亲切，稍感陌生的则会使人认为格外疏远。If we cannot fully understand the acts of other people, until we know what they think they know, then in order to do justice we
54、 have to appraise not only the information which has been at their disposal, but the minds through which they have filtered it.v小小的迹象就会把它们激发出来，而这种迹象有着多种表现，从某个确凿的标志直到某个模糊的类比。一旦受到激发，它们就会把那些由来已久的老看法浇注到新见解中，似乎这个世界又在记忆中得到复活。The subtlest and most pervasive of all influences ere those which create and main
55、tain the repertory of stereotypes. We are told about the world before we see it. We imagine most things before we experience them. And those preconceptions, unless education has made us acutely aware, govern deeply the whole process of perception. 第七章 作为屏蔽的成见 CHAPTER VII STEREOTYPES AS DEFENSE 我们在寻求
56、比较公正的见解时往往会坚持我们的成见，其原因除了节省精力之外，还有另一个原因。成见系统也许使我们个人传统的核心，是对我们社会地位的保护。THERE is another reason, besides economy of effort, why we so often hold to our stereotypes when we might pursue a more disinterested vision. The systems of stereotypes may be the core of our personal tradition, the defenses of our
57、position in society.v它是对我们自尊心的保护，是投射在这个世界上的我们自身的意识，我们自身的价值观念，我们自身的立场我和我们自身的权利。因此，成见充满了被它们所吸纳的情感。它们是我们传统的堡垒，在这个堡垒的庇护下我们可以继续心安理得地坚持我们的立场。It is the guarantee of our self-respect; it is the projection upon the world of our own sense of our own value, our own position and our own rights. The stereotypes
58、are, therefore, highly charged with the feelings that are attached to them. They are the fortress of our tradition, and behind its defenses we can continue to feel ourselves safe in the position we occupy. 外部世界是一个有序的，多少和谐的世界景象，面对这一景象，我们的习惯，偏爱，能力，安逸和希望都会进行自我调节。它们可能不是世界的全部景象，但却是一个合乎我们需要的可能的世界景象。They a
59、re an ordered, more or less consistent picture of the world, to which our habits, our tastes, our capacities, our comforts and our hopes have adjusted themselves. They may not be a complete picture of the world, but they are a picture of a possible world to which we are adapted.v在一定程度上，来自外部的刺激，尤其是印刷
60、品和口头语言发出的刺激，可以唤起一个成见系统的某个部分，就是说，真实感觉和先入之见会同时进入意识。In some measure, stimuli from the outside, especially when they are printed or spoken words, evoke some part of a system of stereotypes, so that the actual sensation and the preconception occupy consciousness at the same time.v如果我们看到的完全合乎我们的预想，成见就会进一步
61、加强，正如一个人早就知道日本人狡猾，偏偏又倒霉地碰上了两个不老实的日本人一样。If what we are looking at corresponds successfully with what we anticipated, the stereotype is reinforced for the future, as it is in a man who knows in advance that the Japanese are cunning and has the bad luck to run across two dishonest Japanese.v如果经验与成见发生矛盾
62、，则两者之一就有了麻烦。倘若那人不再可塑，或者某种强烈的关注使他极难重新调整成见，他就会把那种矛盾嗤之为什么规律的例外，并且怀疑见证人，吹毛求疵，接着把它置之脑后，但是，倘若他仍然好奇心盛且心胸开阔，这个新景象就会被接纳进老画面，并会获准对它加以修改。If the experience contradicts the stereotype, one of two things happens. If the man is no longer plastic, or if some powerful interest makes it highly inconvenient to rearran
63、ge his stereotypes, he pooh-poohs the contradiction as an exception that proves the rule, discredits the witness, finds a flaw somewhere, and manages to forget it. But if he is still curious and open-minded, the novelty is taken into the picture, and allowed to modify it. 第八章 盲点及其价值 CHAPTER VIII BLI
64、ND SPOTS AND THEIR VALUEv每一种理论都有一个不由自主的盲点，那个盲点会掩盖某种事实，如果认识到这一点就可以控制成见所秀发的致命运动。That theory, of course, is, as Professor Bury says, neutral between pessimism and optimism. But it promised continual change, and the changes visible in the world marked such extraordinary conquests of nature, that the pop
65、ular mind made a blend of the two.v在这个点上，成见和事实肯定会有一定程度的分离，这是不能视而不见的。这个点会始终存在，因为我们对事物如何运转的概念，要比事态的进退涨落简单得多，稳定得多。因此，总有那么一刻，这个盲点会从意识的边缘进入中心。This marks the point where the stereotype and the facts, that cannot be ignored, definitely part company.There is always such a point, because our images of how th
66、ings behave are simpler and more fixed than the ebb and flow of affairs. There comes a time, therefore, when the blind spots come from the edge of vision into the center.v那时，除非勇敢的批评家能够发出警告，领导人能够认识到这种变化，人民有着宽容的习惯，否则，本来有助于简化努力，集中精力的成见，就会蒙蔽人们的双眼，从而妨碍人们的努力，浪费人们的精力。Then unless there are critics who have
67、the courage to sound an alarm, and leaders capable of understanding the change, and a people tolerant by habit, the stereotype, instead of economizing effort, and focussing energy may frustrate effort and waste mens energy by blinding themv这些盲点会避开杂乱无章的想象，而想象会带有如影随形的情感，可能会导致犹豫不决和意志薄弱。所以，成见不仅能在忙忙碌碌的生活
68、中节省时间并能保护我们的社会地位，而且当我们想要冷静全面地观察世界的时候，能使我们摆脱一切令人困惑的干扰。For these blind spots keep away distracting images, which with their attendant emotions, might cause hesitation and infirmity of purpose. Consequently the stereotype not only saves time in a busy life and is a defense of our position in society, b
69、ut tends to preserve us from all the bewildering effect of trying to see the world steadily and see itwhole. 第九章 规则及其敌人 CHAPTER IX CODES AND THEIR ENEMIES 任何一个在车站站台出口等着接朋友的人，都会碰上认错人的尴尬事。一顶帽子的式样，一种没什么特色的步态，都会在他的脑际唤起生动的影像。ANYONE who has stood at the end of a railroad platform waiting for a friend, wil
70、l recall what queer people he mistook for him. The shape of a hat, a slightly characteristic gait, evoked the vivid picture in his minds eye.v成见系统一旦完全固定下来，我们的注意力就会受到支持一一系统的事实的吸引，对于和它相抵触的事实会视而不见。大概是因为那些事实跟它一拍即合，所以，善良的人们总能为善良找出无数理由，邪恶的人们也总能为邪恶找出无数理由。For when a system of stereotypes is well fixed, our
71、attention is called to those facts which support it, and diverted from those which contradict. So perhaps it is because they are attuned to find it, that kindly people discover so much reason for kindness, malicious people so much malice.v格格不入的将被摒弃，与众不同的将被忽视。我们并不注意我们的眼睛不习惯注意的食物。时而有意识地，更常见的是无意之中，我们就对
72、符合我们的哲学的事实产生了深刻印象。What is alien will be rejected, what is different will fall upon unseeing eyes. We do not see what our eyes are not accustomed to take into account. Sometimes consciously, more often without knowing it, we are impressed by those facts which fit our philosophy.v对于同一种局面，一方看到的是进步，节俭和辉
73、煌的发展，另一方看到的则是反动，奢侈和贸易钳制。So where two factions see vividly each its own aspect, and contrive their own explanations of what they see, it is almost impossible for them to credit each other with honesty. If the pattern fits their experience at a crucial point, they no longer look upon it as an interpre
74、tation.v道德观念，正常的感受和恰当的形式，首先会把某些潜在的偏见进行标准化加工，然后再予以强化。正如我们按照自己的准则进行自我调整一样，我们也会按照那些准则去调整我们所看到的事实。Morality, good taste and good form first standardize and then emphasize certain of these underlying prejudices. As we adjust ourselves to our code, we adjust the facts we see to that code. Rationally, the f
75、acts are neutral to all our views of right and wrong. Actually, our canons determine greatly what we shall perceiveand how.v从理性角度看，事实对于我们的是非观而言是中立的。但实际上，我们的准则在很大程度上决定我们应当了解什么以及如何了解。Rationally, the facts are neutral to all our views of right and wrong. Actually, our canons determine greatly what we s
76、hall perceiveand how.v在任何情况下，准则的制定者都会选定某些典型环境，然后通过某种形式的推理或直觉，演绎出能够实现他们所认可的目标的行为方式。这一规律可谓放之四海而皆准。In any event the makers of the code fix upon certain typical situations, and then by some form of reasoning or intuition, deduce the kind of behavior which would produce the aim they acknowledge. The rule
77、s apply where they apply.v在每一套道德准则的核心，都有一幅对人性的写照，一幅对世界的画像和一幅对历史的描述。At the core of every moral code there is a picture of human nature, a map of the universe, and a version of history.v这些准则在很大程度上可能是基于这种真实的期望：一个人一旦接受了某项准则，他就会逐渐具备该准则所要求的那种人性。Far more serious in the modern world than any difference of m
78、oral code is the difference in the assumptions about facts to which the code is applied. Religious, moral and political formulae are nothing like so far apart as the facts assumed by their votaries.v正统理论认为，一种舆论会针对一组事实构成某种道德判断。而李普曼所说的理论认为，就目前的教育状况而言，舆论主要是对事实加以道德化和条理化。依照他的看法，处于那些准则的核心地位的成见模式，在很大程度上决定着
79、我们应当关注哪些事实，以及从哪个角度去关注。This is a rather common way of explaining away opposition. In their more libelous form such charges rarely reach the printed page, and a Roosevelt may have to wait years, or a Harding months, before he can force an issue, and end a whispering campaign that has reached into ever
80、y circle of talk. 第十章 发现成见 CHAPTER X THE DETECTION OF STEREOTYPES 有一些线索往往很有助于让人看出一种成见的荒谬的专横性质。有些原则非常迅速地开始互相干扰，人们很容易就能看出争端是如何产生的。那一系列矛盾表明，为了每一部分而运用成见，可能会抹杀与那种要求相抵触的全部事实。There are certain clues which often help in detecting the false absolutism of a stereotype. In the case of the Ruritanian propaganda
81、 the principles blanketed each other so rapidly that one could readily see how the argument had been constructed. v一个合乎实际的空间概念并不是个微不足道的事情。如果我在地图上的孟买和香港之间画一条直线并测量一下距离，这根本无法使我了解到我的实际行程究竟有多远。即使我估量了我必定要经过的实际距离，我也仍然没有了解到什么，因为我还不知道乘坐什么样的船，他们开起来有多快，我能不能订上铺位，以及是否付得起这笔费用。A true conception of space is not a s
82、imple matter. If I draw a straight line on a map between Bombay and Hong Kong and measure the distance, I have learned nothing whatever about the distance I should have to cover on a voyage. And even if I measure the actual distance that I must traverse, I still know very little until I know what sh
83、ips are in the service, when they run, how fast they go, whether I can secure accommodation and afford to pay for it. v时间概念的情况与空间概念同样糟糕。一种关于时间的假定已经被人们广泛接受。一个为了整个被意识到的生活而存在的制度，对于某人来说乃是永恒宇宙的一个组成部分，而在另一个人看来则是转瞬即逝的东西。But time, no less than space, fares badly. A common example is that of the man who trie
84、s by making an elaborate will to control his money long after his death. v因此，一个无所事事的假期慢慢腾腾地过去之后，虽然我们曾经置身其中，但在记忆中却好像非常短暂。重大活动可以迅速地消磨时间，可是在记忆中它的持续期却很长。 A presumption about time enters widely into our opinions. To one person an institution which has existed for the whole of his conscious life is part o
85、f the permanent furniture of the universe: to another it is ephemeral. Geological time is very different from biological time.v至于未来，是最容易令人产生错觉的时间。那里的可能性与或然性以及或然性与确定性的区别几乎是无法辨认的。如果这个未来过于遥远，人就会把仅仅是可以想象到的事情转而想象成完全可能的事情，进而把这种可能的事情想象成确实会发生的事情。詹姆斯把这叫做信仰阶梯，他说，“这是一个由善良愿望组成的斜坡，在那上面排列着人们习以为常的生活中的大量问题。”But the
86、 future is the most illusive time of all. Our temptation here is to jump over necessary steps in the sequence; and as we are governed by hope or doubt, to exaggerate or to minimize the time required tocomplete various parts of a process. The discussion of the role to be exercised by wage-earners in
87、the management of industry is riddled with this difficulty.1 在某种世界观里并不存在荒谬成分，这是真实的，并不存在自相矛盾；2 它在某些条件下可能是真实的；3 它现在也许是真实的；4 它是合乎真实的；5 它理应是真实的；6 它肯定是真实的；7 它就会成为真实的，无论如何对我来说是真实的。1. There is nothing absurd in a certain view of the world being true, nothing contradictory;2. It might have been true under c
88、ertain conditions;3. It may be true even now;4. It is fit to be true;5. It ought to be true;6. It must be true;7. It shall be true, at any rate true for me.v实际的空间，实际的时间，实际的数量，实际的关联，实际的压力，统统无人理睬。前景与背景以及行动的尺度，统统被成见所省略和冻结。Real space, real time, real numbers, real connections, real weights are lost. The
89、 perspective and the background and the dimensions of action are clipped and frozen in the stereotype.第四部分 兴趣 第十一章 兴趣的激发 CHAPTER XI THE ENLISTING OF INTEREST 人的头脑有着没完没了且持续不断的想象力。我们的印象有着令人迷惑的变化，甚至在它们经过了种种审查之后，也很容易迫使我们采用更经济的寓言形式。BUT the human mind is not a film which registers once and for all each im
90、pression that comes through its shutters and lenses. The human mind is endlessly and persistently creative. The pictures fade or combine, are sharpened here, condensed there, as we make them more completely our own. 事物的多样性不可胜数，我们不可能老是对它们记忆犹新。一般情况下，我们会给它们起个名称，让这个名称代表整个印象。The bewildering variety of ou
91、r impressions, even after they have been censored in all kinds of ways, tends to force us to adopt the greater economy of the allegory.v通过演讲，口号，戏剧，电影，漫画，小说，雕塑或者绘画把公共事务广而告之的时候，要想让它们引起一个人的兴趣，首先就需要对原型进行抽象，然后使这些被抽象出来的东西产生刺激作用。When public affairs are popularized in speeches, headlines, plays, moving pict
92、ures, cartoons, novels, statues or paintings, their transformation into a human interest requires first abstraction from the original, and then animation of what has been abstracted.v对于那些不是亲眼所见的事情，我们不可能有太多的兴趣，也不可能受到太大的触动。因而，在某人经过艺术加工把它们变成电影之前，它们总是那么单调乏味。We cannot be much interested in, or much moved
93、 by, the things we do not see. Of public affairs each of us sees very little, and therefore, they remain dull and unappetizing, until somebody, with the makings of an artist, has translated them into a moving picture.v图像始终是最可靠的观念传达方式其次则是能够唤起记忆图像的词语。但是，被传达的观念在没有使我们认同于图像的某个方面之前，它不会完全成为我们自己的观念。Pictures
94、 have always been the surest way of conveying an idea, and next in order, words that call up pictures in memory. But the idea conveyed is not fully our own until we have identified ourselves with some aspect of the picture.v因此，为了使远处的情形不至于成为在注意力边缘上摇曳的模糊事物，就应该把它转换成图像，使人们能够看到产生认同感的机会，否则就只能使很少的人在很短的时间里感
95、兴趣。它是那种看得见却摸不着的景观，是能够冲击我们的感觉却并非工人的那种知觉。And so, in spite of the critics, a verdict is rendered in the old controversy about realism and romanticism. Our popular taste is to have the drama originate in a setting realistic enough to make identification plausible and to have it terminate in a setting ro
96、mantic enough to be desirable, but not so romantic as to be inconceivable. 第十二章 重新思考自我利益CHAPTER XII SELF-INTEREST RECONSIDERED 同一个故事在所有的听众那里会变得各不相 同。由于没有两个人的经历会一摸一样，每个人都会从稍有差异的角度接受那个故事，会用自己的方式把故事再现一番，并在其中注入他的情感。THEREFORE, the identical story is not the same story to all who hear it. Each will enter
97、it at a slightly different point, since no two experiences are exactly alike; he will reenact it in his own way, and transfuse it with his own feelings. Sometimes an artist of compelling skill will force us to enter into lives altogether unlike our own, lives that seem at first glance dull, repulsiv
98、e, or eccentric.v其结果是，观众的成分越复杂，对故事的反应差异就越大。这是由于当观众的数量增加时，他们共同使用的词汇数量就会减少。于是故事中的相同成分便愈益抽象。这样的故事没有了自身的精确特性，因为听故事的人们各具特性。他们把自己的特性给了故事。Consequently the more mixed the audience, the greater will be the variation in the response. For as the audience grows larger, the number of common words diminishes. Thu
99、s the common factors in the storybecome more abstract. This story, lacking precise character of its own, is heard by people of highly varied character. They give it their own character.v人们通过自己的固定模式来接受几行印刷文字，某些照片，闲文轶事以及个人生活的偶然经历传达给他的公共事务，并根据自己的情感加以再创造。People differ widely, of course, in the consisten
100、cy of their characters, so widely that they may cover the whole gamut of differences between a split soul like Dr. Jekylls and an utterly single minded Brand, Parsifal, or Don Quixote.v一个人会由于对他置身其中的环境的感知而形成各种特性。如果他为之敏感的环境碰巧是一群机敏伶俐的人，它就会模仿那些他认为合适的特性。那种特性就会作为他的举止，言谈，气质和偏好的调节器发挥作用。But the characters ta
101、ke their form from a mans conception of the situation in which he finds himself. If the environment to which he is sensitive happens to be the smart set, he will imitate the character he conceives to be appropriate. v我们的自身是在所有影响着我们的人们的帮助下形成的，它们决定着何种冲动应该如何突出出来，应该指向何处，并与某些典型境遇相适应，因而，我们早就学会了为了这些境遇准备合适的
102、态度。面对一种可辨认的经验类型，某种特性就会控制我们全身心的外在表现。The selves, which we construct with the help of all who influence us, prescribe which impulses, how emphasized, how directed, are appropriate to certain typical situations for which we have learned prepared attitudes.v社会主义实践乃是基于这一信念：如果人们在经济上各行其道，那么他们最终就会因此而持有某些观念。T
103、he socialist practice is based on a belief that if men are economically situated in different ways, they can then be induced to hold certain views. v 收入的差别造成了交往和机会方面的深刻差别，一个人的不同经济交往会限制或扩大其见解的范围。人们始终在追求他们的利益，但他们如何追求却并非命中注定。 Differences of income make a profound difference in contact and opportunity.
104、Men who work at machines will tend, as Mr. Thorstein Veblen has so brilliantly demonstrated, Footnote: The Theory ofBusiness Enterprise. to interpret experience differently from handicraftsmen or traders. 第五部分 公意的形成PART VTHE MAKING OF A COMMON WILL 第十三章 兴趣的转移 CHAPTER XIII THE TRANSFER OF INTEREST 每个
105、人对于无形世界的印象都是那么变动不居。触点会变，已经定型的期望值也会变，而变化最微妙的则是被激发起来的兴趣。This goes to show that there are many variables in each mans impressions of the invisible world. The points of contact vary, the stereotyped expectations vary, the interest enlisted varies most subtly of all.v人们为了一个共同目的作出牺牲，然而却无人能够精确说明是什么动机驱使着每个人
106、做他做的每件事情。一位士兵认为这是一场结束战争的战争，但美国驻英大使哈维先生告诉他，士兵不要去考虑这种问题。这话毫无用处。抱着这种想法的士兵想的就是要结束战争。而另有想法的哈维先生却是另有想法。People enlisted and fought, worked, paid taxes, sacrificed to a common end, and yet no one can begin to say exactly what moved each person to do each thing that he did. It is no use, then, Mr. Harvey tel
107、ling a soldier who thought this was a war to end war that the soldier did not think any such thing. The soldier who thought that thought that. And Mr. Harvey, who thought something else, thought something else.v在象征的周围形成了一种联合体，人们的感情就会倾向于在象征下达成一致，而不再挑剔达成一致的条件。For by what is known to psychologists as c
108、onditioned response, an emotion is not attached merely to one idea.There are no end of things which can arouse the emotion, and no end of things which can satisfy it.v它们像个战略铁路枢纽，汇聚着许多线路，而不管它们最初始于何处，最终目的地又是在哪里。谁抓住了这些能够将目前的公共感情包容起来的象征，谁就控制了制定公共政策的大多数机会。只要某一特定的象征具有联合的力量，那些踌躇满志的派别就会为占有这个象征而争斗。As long as
109、 the Fourteen Points dealt with that hazy and happy future when the agony was to be over, the real conflicts of interpretation were not made manifest. They were plans for the settlement of a wholly invisible environment, and because these plans inspired all groups each with its own private hope, all
110、 hopes ran together as a public hope. 第十四章 是或不 CHAPTER XIV YES OR NO 象征常常具有很大的用处和神奇的力量，词语本身就能释放出不可思议的魔力。一想到象征，人们总会兴致勃勃地谈论它们，宛如它们有着独立的力量。而且，那些曾经令人神魂颠倒的象征，从没有完全失去对人们的影响。Symbols are often so useful and so mysteriously powerful that the word itself exhales a magical glamor. In thinking about symbols it
111、is tempting to treat them as if they possessed independent energy. Yet no end ofsymbols which once provoked ecstasy have quite ceased to affect anybody.v一种特定的象征如何能在特定的人们心中扎下根来呢？它是由我们公认的权威人物播种在我们心中的。如果它种的很深，以后我们就会把对着我们挥动该象征的人叫做权威人士。但首先，象征之所以合我们的意，之所以很重要，是因为把象征传达给我们的人是合我们意的重要人物。Since the offering of s
112、ymbols is so generous, and the meaning that can be imputed is so elastic, how does any particular symbol take root in any particular persons mind? It is planted there by another human being whom we recognize as authoritative. If it is planted deeply enough, it may be that later we shall call the per
113、son authoritative who waves that symbol at us.v词语本身并不会把散乱的情感凝聚起来，词语必须由居于战略地位的人士说出来，而且必须在恰到好处的那一刻说出来，否则就不过是一阵风而已。On all but a very few matters for short stretches in our lives, the utmost independence that we can exercise is to multiply the authorities to whom we give a friendly hearing. v不管是真实的报道还是貌
114、似有理的谬误，读着，听着，觉着都一样。除了我们非常熟悉的少数问题以外，我们无法确定哪些陈述是真实的，哪些是虚假的。于是我们就在值得信任和不值得信任的报道者之间进行选择。At any rate we do find ourselves trusting certain people, who constitute our means of junction with pretty nearly the whole realm of unknown things. Strangely enough, this fact is sometimes regarded as inherently und
115、ignified, as evidence of our sheep-like, ape-like nature. But complete independence in the universe is simply unthinkable.v在每一个等级体系中，每个人都仰赖与一个上司，同时又是某个仰赖于他的等级的上司。把机器联成整体的是一套特权制度。这些制度可能会随着追求特权者的机会和口味而变化，从裙带关系和全面庇护到小集团的英雄崇拜或者某个固定观念。Of the two the Oversoul has some advantage because it does at least re
116、cognize that the mass makes decisions that are not spontaneously born in the breast of every member. But the Oversoul as presiding genius in corporate behavior is a superfluous mystery if we fix our attention upon the machine. The machine is a quite prosaic reality.v我们难得碰上实际的争端，因此没有养成作出重大决定的习惯。如果我们所
117、接受的绝大多数信息没有暗示我们应当如何感受新闻，这一点恐怕会更明显。我们需要那种暗示，如果没有新闻中找到它，我们就会转向社会和值得信赖的顾问。如果我们感到自己卷入了其中，那种幻想就会不舒服，知道我们确定了自己的立场，也就是说，直到事实被加以概括，我们认为能够对它们说“是”或者说“不”的时候，这种感觉才会消除。When a number of people all say Yes they may have all kinds of reasons for saying it. They generally do. For the pictures in their minds are, as
118、we have already noted, varied in subtle and intimate ways. But this subtlety remains within their minds; it becomes represented publicly by a number of symbolic phrases which carry the individual emotion after evacuating most of the intention. 第十五章 领袖与平民CHAPTER XV LEADERS AND THE RANK AND FILEv由于象征具
119、有非凡的现实重要性，没有任何 一位成功的领袖会忙得顾不上培育那些能把他的追随者组织起来的象征。BECAUSE of their transcendent practical importance, no successful leader has ever been too busy to cultivate the symbols which organize his following. v象征既是一种团结的技巧，又是一种宣传的手段。它能够使人们为了一个共同目标而努力，但是，正因为战略上处于有利地位的少数人必须选择具体的对象，所以，象征也是一种能被少数人用来扩张势力的工具，借以操纵多数，转
120、移批评矛头，诱使人们为了他们并不理解的目标而坠入痛苦。These great symbols possess by transference all the minute and detailed loyalties of an ancient and stereotyped society. They evoke the feeling that each individual has for the landscape, the furniture, the faces, the memories that are his first, and in a static society, h
121、is only reality. That core of images and devotions without which he is unthinkable to himself, is nationality. The great symbols take up these devotions, and can arouse them without calling forth the primitive images.v象征可以做到这一点。它会淡化个人意向，抵消分歧，模糊个人目的。它使个性呆滞，同时却让团体的意向锐不可当，把该团体和有目的的行动连成一体这是其他任何因素在危机中能做不
122、到。它通过凝滞个性来动员民众。象征是一种工具，能够使民众借以在短时间内摆脱自身的惰性，摆脱犹豫或盲动，在复杂局势的曲折道路上被引导着前行。A fairly large percentage are bound to agree without having taken the time, or without possessing the background, for appreciating the choices which the leader presents to them. No one, however, can ask for more. And only theorists
123、 do. If we have had our day in court, if what we had to say was heard, and then if what is done comes out well, most of us do not stop to consider how much our opinion affected the business in hand.v每个领导人在某种程度上也都是个宣传员。处在全局性地位，甚至经常被迫在两种都是为了保证制度安全，同样无可反驳却互相冲突的理想之间作出选择，还要坦率面对公众，这样的官员会发现自己在越来越有意识地决定在什么环
124、境下，以什么为幌子让公众了解什么样的真实真相。Leaders in touch with popular feeling are quickly conscious of these reactions. They know that high prices are pressing upon the mass, or that certain classes of individuals are becoming unpopular, or that feeling towards another nation is friendly or hostile.v通过精心安排能够制造出同意，这一
125、点是无可否认的。在目前控制局势的这一代人中间，说服已经变成一种自觉的艺术和世俗政府的一个常规功能。And therefore, if the established powers are sensitive and well-informed, if they are visibly trying to meet popular feeling, and actually removing some of the causes of dissatisfaction, no matter how slowly they proceed, provided they are seen to be
126、proceeding, they have little to fear.第六部分 民主的形象PART VI THE IMAGE OF DEMOCRACY 第十六章 自我中心的人v美国的政治作家们最关心的是搞清楚如何使政府表达出共同意志，或者如何防止共同意志颠覆他们认为能使政府得以存在的目标。The existence of a force called Public Opinion is in the main taken for granted, and American political writers have been most interested either in findi
127、ng out how to make government express the common will, or in how to prevent the common will from subverting the purposes for which they believe the government exists.v按照他们的传统，他们希望的是要么驯服舆论，要么就服从舆论。因此，一套著名系列教科书的编者说道：“进行统治最困难也是最重大的问题（就是）如何把个人见解的力量传导给公众行动。”According to their traditions they have wished
128、either to tame opinion or to obey it. Thus the editor of a notable series of text-books writes that the most difficult and the most momentous question of government (is) how totransmit the force of individual opinion into public actionv人们可以熟悉曾经生活劳动过得地方的风俗习惯和一些比较显著的特点，可是关于外部世界的情况就只能靠想象了，而且既不能凭着本能去想象，
129、也无法指望仅仅活着就能吸收有价值的知识。But the facts men could come to possess in this effortless way were limited. They could know the customs and more obvious character of the place where they lived and worked. But the outer world they had toconceive, and they did not conceive it instinctively, nor absorb trustworth
130、y knowledge of it just by living.v谈论或者判断的时候，我们绝大多数人并没有那种根深蒂固的分析见解的习惯，因而几乎不会觉得还需要更好的主意，即使它们出现在眼前也不会关心，更没有能力去妨碍政治才俊们玩弄新技巧。They were engaged, as against the prejudice of ages, in the assertion of human dignity. What possessed them was not whether John Smith had sound views on any public question, but t
131、hat John Smith, scion of a stock that had always been considered inferior, would now bend hisknee to no other man. v把人类事务的任何方面统统纳入判断力范畴，这样的可能性打破了唯政治理念是瞻的魅力。当然，存在着并不了解注意力限度的芸芸众生，乃是政治科学的主要前提。他们的立足点之地是沙滩。But the facts men could come to possess in this effortless way were limited. They could know the cu
132、stoms and more obvious character of the place where they lived and worked. But the outer world they had to conceive, and they did not conceive it instinctively, nor absorb trustworthy knowledge of it just by living.v他们早已亲身证明了一种非常狭隘地以自我为中心去认识世界所产生的结果。但是政治思想家门从柏拉图，亚里士多德经马基雅维利，霍布斯到民主政治理论家，始终就是围绕着自我中心的人
133、进行思索的，后者不得不始终凭着头脑中寥寥几幅画面来看待整个世界。Their assumptions antedated not only the modern newspaper, the world-wide press services, photography and moving pictures, but, what is really more significant, they antedated measurement and record, quantitative and comparative analysis, the canons of evidence, and t
134、he ability of psychological analysis to correct and discount the prejudices of the witness. 第十七章 独立的共同体 CHAPTER XVIITHE SELF-CONTAINED COMMUNITY 人类思想的一个重要分支它已经形成并且至今仍然有着许多学派以如下方式出发了：它设想了一种理想公开的人际关系模式，其中的每个人都被恰如其分地赋予了自己的 职责与权力。To circumvent this conclusion one great branch of human thought, which had
135、 and has many schools, proceeded in this fashion: it conceived an ideally just pattern of human relations in which each person had well defined functions and rights.v在杰斐逊那个时代，没有人会想到公众舆论竟然不是自发和主观的。因此，这个民主传统始终在努力认识这样一个世界：那里的人民唯一关心的事务就是因果关系都在他们习惯的范围中起作用的事务。从来没有任何民主理论能够在一个广阔得不可预见的环境背景下进行自我设计。That gospel
136、 was fixed by the necessity that in Jeffersons time no one could have conceived public opinions that were not spontaneous and subjective. The democratic tradition is therefore always trying to see a world where people are exclusively concerned with affairs of which the causes and effects all operate
137、 within the region they inhabit. Never has democratic theory been able to conceive itself in the context of a wide andunpredictable environment.v任何一个共同体在看待外部世界时形成的公众舆论，主要是由若干固定的想象组成的，人们按照从共同体的法律和道德准则中演绎出来的模式对这些想象进行整理，而赋予它们生命的则是由地方经验唤起的情感。The community could take its supply of information for granted
138、; its codes it passed on through school, church, and family, and the power to draw deductions from a premise, rather than the ability to find the premise, was regarded as the chief end of intellectual training. 第十八章 压力，自由授权及特权的作用 CHAPTER XVIII THE ROLE OF FORCE, PATRONAGE AND PRIVILEGEv为了创立全国性政府，汉密尔
139、顿和他的同事们就必须制订计划，但理论依据并不是人们会由于对共同利益的认识而进行合作，而是人们能够被统治假如通过权力平衡来保证特殊利益得到平衡的话。Hamilton, the measures of the Union have not been executed; the delinquencies of the States have, step by step, matured themselves to an extreme which has at length arrested all the wheels of the national government and brought
140、 them to an awful stand.v制约与平衡的理论乃是联邦主义领袖们对公众舆论问题的补救办法。除了设计一个使地方观点保持中立的精巧及其以外，他们找不到其他用“行政官的温和影响”取代“血腥暴力”的途径。Although the constitutional convention worked behind closed doors, and although ratification was engineered by a vote of probably not more than one-sixth of the adult males, there was little o
141、r no pretence.v它不仅承认普遍人享有了新的尊严，即人人都可能适于担任公职，也不仅摧毁了一个小型社会阶层的垄断地位，看上去是把职业对才能开放，而且“是人们鼓吹了若干世纪，对政治腐败最有效的救治措施，”是一条防止产生官僚政治的途径。Naturally it did not have the same results in the nation that it had in the ideal community on which the democratic theory was based. It produced quite unexpected results, for it
142、founded a new governing class to take the place of the submerged federalists.v它切断了那些天生的领袖与自我中心的共同体那种过去密切的联系，削弱了地方精神并且促成了某种和平的合作。It would be, of course, the absence of these men does not explain the plight of Congress, for its decline began when it was relatively the most eminent branch of the govern
143、ment.v自由授权之所以能把那些政治扛鼎人物吸引到全国性政府中来，就是因为各自我中心的共同体提供了无限多样化的地方津贴和特权。自由授权与政治分肥混合并安抚了无数的特俗观点，地方的不满以及个人野心。Except for the little that these investigations yield, the occasional communications from the executive departments, interested and disinterested data collected by private persons, such newspapers, per
144、iodicals, and books as Congressmen read, and a new and excellent practice of calling for help from expert bodies like the Interstate Commerce Commission, the Federal Trade Commission, and the Tariff Commission, the creation of Congressional opinion is incestuous.v也存在着另外两种选择。一是通过制造恐怖和服从进行统治；一是在高度发达的信
145、息，分析和自我意识系统使“国情知识与国家的理由”家喻户晓的基础上进行统治。The stereotype of democracy controlled the visible government; the corrections, the exceptions and adaptations of the Americanpeople to the real facts of their environment have had to be invisible, even when everybody knew all about them. It was only the words of
146、 the law, the speeches of politicians, the platforms, and the formal machinery of administration that have had to conform to the pristine image of democracy.v共同意识的素材已经积累到了这样的程度，它决定着依靠强力还是依靠比较温和的选择自由授权和政治分肥才能带来长远的合作。The stereotype of democracy controlled the visible government; the corrections, the e
147、xceptions and adaptations of the Americanpeople to the real facts of their environment have had to be invisible, even when everybody knew all about them. 第十九章 旧物新装：基尔特社会主义 CHAPTER XIX THE OLD IMAGE IN A NEW FORM: GUILD SOCIALISMv科尔说，现存的国家“主要就是一种强制工具”；在一个基尔特社会主义社会中将不存在主权权力，尽管还会有一个协调机构，他把这个机构叫做“公社”。Wh
148、enever the quarrels of self-centered groups become unbearable, reformers in the past found themselves forced to choose between two great alternatives. They could take the path to Rome and impose a Roman peace upon the warring tribes.v公社要的并不是一种强制工具。它调节价格争端。有时它会确定价格，分配盈余或者弥补亏空。它分配自然资源，控制信贷。它还“调配公社劳力”。
149、它批准各基尔特与行政机构的预算。它征管税收。它对“全部收入的问题”都拥有管辖权。它向共同体的非生产人员“分配”收入。它对各基尔特之间的所有政策与权限问题拥有最终裁判权。Modern democracy and the industrial system were both born in a time of reaction against kings, crown government, and a regime of detailed economic regulation. In the industrial sphere this reaction took the formof ex
150、treme devolution, known as laissez-faire individualism. v基尔特主义者一心想要解决的问题是如何发挥词语的功能区设计一种共同利益。在他们想象的社会中，世间的一切主要劳动都被按照功能进行了分解，而这些功能又将融洽地合成一体。 The guildsmen do not expect a miracle to result from the disappearance of capitalist property rights. They do expect, and of course quite rightly, that if equali
151、ty of income were the rule, social relations would be profoundly altered.v他们假定，人们对于社会作为一个整体的目的有着根本一致的看法，对有组织的团体在实现这些目的时的作用有着根本的一致看法。Assume then that the representatives speak, not for the men in the shops, but for certain functions in which the men are interested. They are, mind you, disloyal if the
152、y do not carry out the will of the group about the function, as understood by the group. 第二十章 新形象 CHAPTER XX A NEW IMAGEv一如科尔先生所说，人的全部尊严应该表现在“任何一种社会行为方式中”。它认为，表达自我意志是人的无法抑制的欲望，因为人被假设为是生而具有统治才能的。According to the theory, the full dignity of man requires that his will should be, as Mr. Cole says, expre
153、ssed in any and every form of socialaction. It is supposed that the expression of their will is the consuming passion of men, for they are assumed to possess by instinct the art of government. v然而经验却明明白白地告诉我们。自决不过时人性中的诸多方面之一。主宰自身命运的愿望是一种强烈的愿望，但它必须要适应其他同等强烈的愿望。The emphasis, therefore, has always been
154、 on the mechanism for expressing the will. The democratic El Dorado has always been some perfect environment, and some perfect system of voting and representation, where the innate good will and instinctive statesmanship of every man could be translated into action.v 如果没有这样的制度与教育它们能够成功报道环境，从而使公共生活的现
155、实能够坚决抵消自我中心的舆论，那么共同利益在公众舆论中就根本得不到反映，只能通过一个其自身利益超越了地方局限的专业阶层加以管理。If, then, you root out of the democratic philosophy the whole assumption in all its ramifications that government is instinctive, and that therefore it can be managed by self-centered opinions, what becomes of thedemocratic faith in the
156、 dignity of man. It takes a fresh lease of life by associating itself with the whole personality instead of with a meager aspect of it.v我们每一个人都在各自的空间尽量描绘出无形世界的真实画面，以及使越来越多的人们成为保持这种画面的现实性的行家里手。在我们自身可能具有的相当狭窄的注意力范畴之外，社会控制取决于设计出生活标准与核查方法，据此来衡量政府官员和产业领袖的行为。There is no prospect, in any time which we can
157、conceive, that the whole invisible environment will be so clear to all men that they will spontaneously arrive at sound public opinions on the whole business of government.And even if there were a prospect, it is extremely doubtful whether many of us would wish to be bothered, or would take the time
158、 to form an opinion on any and every form of social action which affects us.第七部分 报纸PART VIINEWSPAPERS 第二十一章 赢得公众 CHAPTER XXI THE BUYING PUBLICv人们一般都承认，新闻报道是接触看不见的环境的主要手段，而实际上几乎所有地方的人们都认为，新闻报道应当自动地为我们做到原始的民主政体想象我们每个人都能够为自己做到的事情，即每两三天就为我们描绘一幅我们所感兴趣的整个外部世界的真实画面。THE idea that men have to go forth and st
159、udy the world in order to govern it, has played a very minor part in political thought. It could figure very little, because the machinery for reporting the world in any way useful togovernment made comparatively little progress from the time of Aristotle to the age in which the premises of democrac
160、y were established.v没有人认为自己应该为报纸付钱。人们指望真相之泉汩汩不停，但并不订立法律或道义上的契约以承担任何风险，成本或困难。他觉着合适，他会付点钱表示一下意思；他觉着合适，它也会不付钱；它觉着合适，他还会另选一家报纸。No one can possibly overestimate the practical value of these civil liberties, nor the importance of maintaining them. When they are in jeopardy, the human spirit is in jeopardy
161、, and should there come a time when they have to be curtailed, as during a war, the suppression of thought is a risk to civilization which might prevent its recovery from the effects of warv将新闻机构与其他行业或机构进行比较。它不是纯生意，部分原因在于这种产品的售价大都低于成本，但主要原因是共同体在用一种道德标准评价新闻机构而用其他标准评价工商业。This insistent and ancient bel
162、ief that truth is not earned, but inspired, revealed, supplied gratis, comes out very plainly in our economic prejudices as readers of newspapers. We expect the newspaper to serve us with truth however unprofitable the truth may be.v发行量是新闻机构达到目的的手段，只有通过广告商打开销路之后，发行量才能变成一种财产。读者不习惯于为采集新闻而付钱，只有把读者变成了发行
163、量，继而将发行量卖给制造商和商人后，才能从读者身上赚钱。Circulation is, therefore, the means to an end. It becomes an asset only when it can be sold to the advertiser, who buys it with revenues secured through indirect taxation of the reader. Footnote: An established newspaper is entitled to fix its advertising rates so that i
164、ts net receipts from circulation may be left on the credit side of the profit and loss account.v而那些最可以利用来赚钱的，正是那些最有钱可花的读者。这样一个新闻机构必定会尊重购物大众的观点。编辑出版报纸就是为了这种购物大众，没有他们的支持，报纸便无以为生。They are engaged in a speculative business, Footnote: Sometimes so speculative that in order to secure credit the publisher
165、has to go into bondage to his creditors. Information on this point is very difficult to obtain, and for that reason its general importance is often much exaggerated.v报纸可以藐视一个广告商，可以攻击一家大银行或者公交业，但是如果疏远了购物大众，它就会丧失生存所必须的财产。A newspaper which angers those whom it pays best to reach through advertisements
166、is a bad medium for an advertiser. And since no one ever claimed that advertising was philanthropy, advertisers buy space in thosepublications which are fairly certain to reach their future customers. 第二十二章 永恒的读者 CHAPTER XXII THE CONSTANT READERv购物大众对一份报纸的忠诚不是由任何契约来规定的。他的忠诚取决于他碰巧感觉如何，或者他有什么偏好，而这些又不仅
167、仅取决于新闻的质量，还常常取决于一些模糊不清的因素。THE loyalty of the buying public to a newspaper is not stipulated in any bond. In almost every other enterprise the person who expects to be served enters into an agreement that controls his passing whims. Atleast he pays for what he obtains.v报纸报道者许多超出我们自身经验的事情，但也报道我们有所经验的事
168、情，而我们经常是根据报纸对待后者的态度来决定对报纸的好恶，以及是信任它还是拒绝它。But the body of the news, though unchecked as a whole by the disinterested reader, consists of items about which some readers have very definite preconceptions. Those items are the data of his judgment, and news which men read without this personal criterion,
169、 they judge by some other standard than their standard of accuracy.v读者希望读到与自己有关的东西。这种理论认为，如果有足够的人可以经常在报纸上见到自己的名字的报道，他们就能构成可靠的发行量。One would have supposed that the inability to take any non-capitalist paper as a model of truthfulness and competence would have caused Mr. Sinclair, and those who agree w
170、ith him, to look somewhat more criticallyat their assumptions. 第二十三章 新闻的性质 CHAPTER XXIII THE NATURE OF NEWSv即使全世界的所有记者昼夜不停地工作，也不可能亲历世界上的每一个事件。ALL the reporters in the world working all the hours of the day could not witness all the happenings in the world.v当一系列事件成为新闻之前，它们常常会通过某种多多少少是公开的行为而引起人们的注意。一般
171、都是不加修饰的公开行为。When Mr. Given says that the newspapers know Smiths troubles and his business status, he does not mean that they know them as Smith knows them, or as Mr. Arnold Bennett would know them if he had madeSmith the hero of a three volume novel.v事件的发展必须形成某种确定的形态，而且，在达到一个形成了某种既成事实的阶段之前，新闻所面对的就只能
172、是大量可能的真相。Naturally there is room for wide difference of opinion as to when events have a shape that can be reported. A good journalist will find news oftener than a hack. If he sees a building with a dangerous list, he does not have to wait until it falls into the street in order to recognize newsv新
173、闻不是社会状况的一面镜子，而是对已经显露出头角的那方面的报告。新闻不会告诉你种子如何在土壤中生长，但可以向你报告第一棵秧苗的破土而出，甚至告诉你某人对种子在地下的情况都说了些什么。它还可能告诉你新芽并不是在预期的时间冒出地面的。任何正在发生的事情，如果可以确定，证实，衡量和命名的特点越多，新闻的发生点就越多。 In the first instance, therefore, the news is not a mirror of social conditions, but the report of an aspect that has obtruded itself. The news
174、does not tell you how the seed is germinating in the ground, but it may tell you when the first sprout breaks through the surface. It may even tell you what somebody says is happening to the seed under ground.v每一个有组织的群体无论它们希望获得还是回避知名度都能真正认识到，什么样的事实或者什么样的印象应于报道，都需要极为谨慎，而践行这样的谨慎却不光是记者的责任。雇佣一个介于这样群体和报纸
175、之间的新闻广告人就比较保险。This is the underlying reason for the existence of the press agent. The enormous discretion as to what facts and what impressions shall be reported is steadily convincing every organized group of people that whether it wishes to secure publicity or to avoid it, the exercise of discreti
176、on cannot be left to the reporter. It is safer to hire a press agent who stands between the group and the newspapers.v新闻报道不实对原材料的第一手报道。它报道的是格式化之后的材料。由于事件的全部现实超出了记者的直接经验，或者超出了报纸所依托的绝大多数特定公众的直接经验，报纸一般都会等待以公开行动为表现方式的信号。Were reporting the simple recovery of obvious facts, the press agent would be little
177、 more than a clerk. But since, in respect to most of the big topics of news, the facts are not simple, and not at all obvious, but subject to choice and opinion, it is natural that everyone should wish to make his own choice of facts for the newspapers to print.v因此，你看到了极为错综复杂的环境，看到了凸显这种环境的公开行动，看到了以固
178、定成见发布信号的公告，看打了读者从对他有着直接影响的经验中得出意义之后所注入的那种意义。You have, therefore, the circumstances in all their sprawling complexity, the overt act which signalizes them, the stereotyped bulletin which publishes the signal, and the meaning that the reader himself injects, after hehas derived that meaning from the e
179、xperience which directly affects himv每份报纸都已经是一系列选择的产物，这些选择包括印什么新闻，印在什么位置，每条应占多大版面，各自的重点是什么等等。这里没有什么客观标准，也没有什么成例可循。Every newspaper when it reaches the reader is the result of a whole series of selections as to what items shall be printed, in what position they shall be printed, how much space each sh
180、all occupy, what emphasis each shall have.v吸引读者的注意力绝不等于严格按照宗教教义或者某种道德文化形态规定的方式去陈列新闻，而是如何激发读者情感，使他与所读内容产生共鸣。如果不能给读者提供机会使他对新闻所描述的斗争如临其境，新闻就不可能吸引大量读者。It is a problem of provoking feeling in the reader, of inducing him to feel a sense of personal identification with the stories he is reading. News which
181、 does not offer this opportunity to introduce oneself into the struggle which it depicts cannot appeal to a wide audience. The audience must participate in the news, much as it participates in the drama, by personal identification.v读者必须通过个人的认同，像参与演剧一样参与新闻，以一种微妙的方式进入细纹，为了进入新闻，他必须先在故事中找到一个熟悉的门槛，这就是成见所
182、要起的作用。Yet that same grocer will have many doubts about his groceries, and that young lady, marvelously certain about the sacraments, may have all kinds of doubts as to whether to marry the grocer, and if not whether it is proper to accept his attentions. 第二十四章 新闻，真相与结论 CHAPTER XXIV NEWS, TRUTH, AND
183、A CONCLUSION 一旦我们开始更为精确地研究新闻机构，很多问题就要取决于我们的假设是什么。As we begin to make more and more exact studies of the press, much will depend upon the hypothesis we hold.v最有生命力的假设是新闻和真相并非同一回事，而且必须加以清楚地区分。新闻的作用在于突出一个事件，而真相的作用则是揭示隐藏的事实，确立其相互关系，描绘出人们可以在其中采取行动的现实画面。只有当社会状况达到了可以辨认，可以检测的程度时，真相和新闻才会重叠。The hypothesis, wh
184、ich seems to me the most fertile, is that news and truth are not the same thing, and must be clearly distinguished. The function of news is to signalize an event, the function of truth is to bring to light the hidden facts, to set them into relation with each other, and make a picture of reality on
185、which men can act. Only at those points, where social conditions take recognizable and measurable shape, do the body of truth and the body of news coincide.v总的来讲，有关现代社会的新闻的质量是其社会组织的注脚，制度越健全，有关各方的利益就能得到规范的代表，问题就能解决得更顺利，引入的客观标准就更多，事件就越能够完美地表现为新闻。And by this knowledge his assurance is tempered. He may
186、have all kinds of moral courage, and sometimes has, but he lacks that sustaining conviction of a certain technic which finally freed the physical sciences from theological control.v新闻广告人的产生，清楚地表明了现代生活的重大真相不会自发地形成总所周知的形态。必须有人赋予它们形态，由于记者不可能按照常规给事实一种形态，而不抱偏见的信息机构又几乎不存在，于是抱有偏见的各方当事人就会去满足阐述某些事实的需要。The pr
187、ess, in other words, has come to be regarded as an organ of direct democracy, charged on a much wider scale, and from day to day, with the function often attributed to the initiative, referendum, and recall. TheCourt of Public Opinion, open day and night, is to lay down the law for everything all th
188、e time.第八部分 有机化情报PART VIIIORGANIZED INTELLIGENCE 第二十五章 打进楔子 CHAPTER XXV THE ENTERING WEDGE 每一个复杂的共同体都曾寻求如占卜家。牧师和长老这样特殊的人物的帮助。 Yet every complicated community has sought the assistance of special men, of augurs, priests, elders.v楔子已经打入，它们并不是都在那里力求不偏不倚。这不是关键。关键在于它们全都开始证明，在公民个人和他所处的大环境之间必须插入某种形式的专门知识。T
189、his whole development has been the work, not so much of a spontaneous creative evolution, as of blind natural selection. The statesman, the executive, the party leader, the head of a voluntary association, foundthat if he had to discuss two dozen different subjects in the course of the day, somebody
190、 would have to coach him. He began to clamor for memoranda.v作为代表之间的中介，作为行政当局的镜子及量具而被雇佣的专家，却对事实有着非常不同的把握。他不是去总结采取行动的人们抛给他的事实，而是为采取行动的人们准备事实。But as things go now, the social scientist assembles his data out of a mass of unrelated material. Social processes are recorded spasmodically, quite often as ac
191、cidents of administration. v这是他战略地位的一个深远变化。他不再身处局外，不再只是抱着忙碌的大人物留给他的东西苦思冥想，他在决策的台前而不是幕后占据了一席之地。That is a virtue, but it becomes a very thin virtue when it is merely a corrective for the unwholesome position of social science. For the scholar is condemned to guess as shrewdly as he can why in a situat
192、ion not clearly understood something or other may have happened. 第二十六章 情报工作 CHAPTER XXVI INTELLIGENCE WORKv世界上最出色的外交机构是最完美地将搜集信息和把握政策分隔开来的外交机构，这不是偶然的。THE practice of democracy has been ahead of its theory. For the theory holds that the adult electors taken together make decisions out of a will that
193、is in them.v所有政府部门都倾向于建立研究与信息机构，伸出触角并不延伸，就像世界上的所有军事情报部分一样。We are most conscious of this in our theory of the courts, when we explain their legislative powers and their vetoes on the theory that there are interests to be guarded which might be forgotten by the elected officials.v专家并不代表任何唾手可得的实力。但是他可以
194、通过打破力量的布局来发挥力量。通过无形变成为有形，他会利用一种新的环境去面对那些运用物质力量的人，操纵他们的观念和情感，改变他们的立场，以这种深刻的方式去影响决策。What they demand is that the experts shall bring the Far East to the Secretarys desk, with all the elements in such relation that it is as if he were in contact with the Far East itself. The expert must translate, simp
195、lify,generalize, but the inference from the result must apply in the East, not merely on the premises of the report.v在所有条件中最为重要的是情报官员应该当独立于负责这个部的众院委员会，也必须独立于部长本身。独立主要取决于三点：资金，任期以及获取事实的途径。The only institutional safeguard is to separate as absolutely as it is possible to do so the staff which executes
196、 from the staff which investigates. The two should be parallel but quite distinct bodies of men, recruited differently, paid if possible from separate funds, responsible to different heads, intrinsically uninterested in each others personal success.v资金的问题既重要又棘手。如果一个研究机构依赖于可能满怀妒忌或是吝啬小气的国会每年施舍的拨款，它就不可
197、能真正放开手脚。然而，你无法摆脱立法机构对资金的最终控制。The question of funds is both important and difficult. No agency of research can be really free if it depends upon annual doles from what may be a jealous or a parsimonious congress. Yet the ultimate control of funds cannot be removed from the legislature.v第一步应该是协调，不是协调决
198、策与行动，而是协调信息和研究。应该让各市官员通过同样的事实认识他们面对的共同问题。In the first instance each intelligence bureau would be the connecting link between Congress and the Department, a better link, in my judgment, than the appearance of cabinet officers on the floor of both House and Senate, though the one proposal in no way ex
199、cludes the other.v地区协调非常必要，因为法定疆界不一定总是与有效环境相重叠。但两者有着一定的共同基础，打破这一基础代价很大。通过信息共享，若干行政区域之间便可以在合作中协调自主决策。It would be idle to deny that such a net work of intelligence bureaus in politics and industry might become a dead weight and a perpetual irritation. One can easily imagine its attraction for men in s
200、earch of soft jobs, forpedants, for meddlers.v任何改革，无论多么激动人心，都不可能是真正彻底的改革，因为它不可能自觉提出一种方式，克服以个人有限经验为基础形成的主观主义见解。And no reform, however sensational, is truly radical, which does not consciously provide a way of overcoming the subjectivism of human opinion based on the limitation of individual experienc
201、e. There are systems of government, of voting, and representation which extract more than others.v当人们根据情报原则行事时，就会走出去找寻事实，形成自己的智慧。当人们无视这一原则时，他们便缩进了自我，找到的也只是近在咫尺的东西。他们不是在增长知识，而是在扩大偏见。But in the end knowledge must come not from the conscience but from the environment with which that conscience deals. W
202、hen men act on the principle of intelligence they go out to find the facts and to make their wisdom. When they ignore it, they go inside themselves and find only what is there. They elaborate their prejudice, instead of increasing their knowledge. 第二十七章 诉诸公众 CHAPTER XXVII THE APPEAL TO THE PUBLIC 在实
203、际生活中，谁也不会按照在每一个公共问题上都会有一个公众舆论这种推测去行事，尽管这一事实常常被掩盖了人们有时会认为，不存在公共问题是因为他们没有公众舆论。IN real life no one acts on the theory that he can have a public opinion on every public question, though this fact is often concealed where a person thinks there is no public question because he has no public opinion.v情报机构首
204、先是实干家的工具，是负有决策责任的代表的工具，是办公室工作人员的工具。如果它对这些人无所助益，那么最终也不会对任何人有所助益。 The amount of attention available is far too small for any scheme in which it was assumed that all the citizens of the nation would, after devoting themselves to the publications of all the intelligence bureaus, become alert,informed, a
205、nd eager on the multitude of real questions that never do fit very well into any broad principle.v但是，它帮助他们了解了自己正在其中发挥影响的环境，就此而论，它能够让他们的所作所为变得显而易见。仅此就足以使他们对普通公众更加负责。But if he tries in every case to substitute himself for the procedure, to bring in Public Opinion like a providential uncle in the crisi
206、s of a play, he will confound his own confusion. He will not follow any train of thought consecutively.v在所有错综复杂的问题上都诉诸公众的做法，其实在很多情况下都是想借助并无机会知情的多数的介入，来逃避那些知情人的批评。On many subjects of great public importance, and in varying degree among different people for more personal matters, the threads of memory
207、 and emotion are in a snarl. The same word will connote any number of different ideas: emotions are displaced from the images to which they belong to names which resemble the names of these images.v例如，钢铁工业存在一个重大争议。每一方都发表了充满最崇高理想的宣言。在这一阶段，唯一值得尊重的公众舆论是坚持认为应该召开一次协商会议的舆论。As a working model of the social
208、 system becomes available to the teacher, he can use it to make the pupil acutely aware of how his mind works on unfamiliar facts. Until he has such a model, the teacher cannot hope to prepare men fully for the world they will find. What he can do is to prepare them to deal with that world with a gr
209、eat deal more sophistication about their own minds. 第二十八章 诉诸理性 CHAPTER XXVIII THE APPEAL TO REASON 在危机接踵而至，真正的危险混杂着想象的虚惊时，一旦恐慌情绪蔓延开来，理性就根本派不上建设性的用场，很快，任何一种秩序似乎都比无序更受欢迎。When Plato came to the point where it was fitting that he should sum up, his assurance turned into stage-fright as he thought how ab
210、surd it would sound to say what was in him about the place of reason in politics. v政治中的理性在预测个人行为时表现得特别幼稚，因为在人的行为中，最初极为细小的变量也会演化极大的差异。Whenever we make an appeal to reason in politics, the difficulty in this parable recurs. For there is an inherent difficulty about using the method of reason to deal w
211、ith an unreasoning world.v在政治上是难以服从理性的，因为你在力图让步法和速度都不相同的两个过程齐头并进。除非理性变得精致而具体，否则眼前的政治斗争就仍需要一套天然的智能，暴力和无法证明的信念，而这些都是理性机无法给予亦无法控制的。It is only on the premise of a certain stability over a long run of time that men can hope to follow the method of reason. This is not because mankind is inept, or because
212、the appeal to reason is visionary, but because the evolution of reason on political subjects is only in its beginnings. Our rational ideas in politics are still large, thin generalities, much too abstract and unrefined for practical guidance, except where the aggregates are large enough to cancel ou
213、t individual peculiarity and exhibit large uniformitie.v但是，我们可以在某种直觉中树立对理性的信念。我们可以利用我们的智慧和力量为理性开辟一席之地。靠着我们所看到的世界画面，我们可以努力展望事件的远景，无论是否可以避开眼前的现实，我们都可以根据更长期的打算去控制决策。We can do this all the better if we do not allow frightfulness and fanaticism to impress us so deeply that we throw up our hands peevishly, and lose interest in the longer run of time because we have lost faith in the future of man. There is no ground for this despair, because all the ifs on which, as James said, our destiny hangs, are as pregnant as they ever were.
