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1、8276?2010 ? 12 ? 15 ? 2011 ? ? ? 5-10 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2011 ? ? 3-5 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?EPS?PE?2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2009 2010E2011E2012E?31.00 0.18 0.30 0.50 1.20 172 103 62 26 ?42.00?69.60 0.53 1.30 2.00 3.00 131 54 35 23 ?90.00?42.11 0.7 0.87 1.33 1.72 60 48 32 24 ?60.00?19.57 0.25 0.49 0.66 0.75 78
2、 40 30 26 ?22.50?36.72 0.16 0.4 1.20 1.40 230 92 31 26 ?42.00?32.29 0.53 0.67 1.00 1.30 61 48 32 25 ?45.50?25.79 0.58 0.80 0.95 1.10 44 32 27 23 ?33.00?32.40 0.49 0.68 1.13 1.59 66 48 27 20 ?45.20?19.02 0.60 0.76 1.01 1.30 32 25 19 15 ?24.00?46.18 0.77 1.05 1.30 1.63 60 44 36 28 ?50.00?44.95 0.46 0.
3、96 1.38 1.60 98 47 33 28 ?56.00?56.94 0.66 0.84 1.22 1.87 86 68 47 30 ?-?80.70 0.64 0.8 1.02 2.00 126 101 79 40 ?-?24.98 0.37 0.78 0.85 1.00 68 32 29 25 ?30.00?14.26 0.12 0.24 0.30 0.50 119 59 48 29 ?-? ?2010?12?3?010-84588226 ? ?S1010207110120 ?010-84588274 ? ?S1010210070011 ?-40-200204060100104 10
4、0311 100518 100722 100927 101130?300?H?1.? 2010 ?. 2010-062.? 2010 ?. 2009-123.? 2010-094.?. 2010-075.?. 2010-076.? 6 ?. 2010-067.? 2009 ? 335 ?. 2010-048.?. 2010-049.?. 2010-04? 2011 ? ? ? ? ? .1? .3? .3?.6? 3-5 ?. 11?.11?.11?.21? .242011 ?.27? .27? .33?.37? .45? 2011 ? .45?.49? 1?.2? 2? .2? 3?.3?
5、4? 60% .3? 5?.4?6?.4? 7?.4? 8?.4? 9? .5? 10?.5? 11?.5? 12?.5? 13? 8 ?.6? 14?.8? 15?.8? 16?.8? 17?002385?.9? 18?.9? 2011 ? 19?.9?20?.10? 21?.10? 22? 6 ?.12?23?8 ?.12? 24?.12? 25? 335 ?.12? 26? 335 ?.12? 27? 50%? .12? 28? .14? 29?.14? 30? 10 ?.14? 31?.14? 32? 335 ?.15? 33?.15? 34?.16? 35?.16? 36?.20?
6、37?.20? 38?2008 ?.24? 39?2008 ?.24? 40?.24? 41?.24? 42?.26? 43?.28? 44? 2007 ?.28? 45?.30? 46?.30?47?20%?.31? 48?.31? 49?.32? 50?.32? 51?.32? 52?.32? 53?.33? 54?2008 ?.34? 55?.35? 56? .35? 57?.36?58?.36? 59?.36? 60?.36? 2011 ?61?.38? 62? .38? 63?.38? 64? 100 ?.38? 65?.39?66?.39? 67? .40? 68?.40? 69?
7、.41? 70?.41? 71?.41? 72?.41? 73?.41? 74?.42? 75? FOB ?.42? 76?.43? 77? .43? 78?2010 ? 1-9 ? 11% .43? 79?.44? 80?.44? 81? 5 ?.44? 82? 6 ?.44? 83? .49? 84? 4 ?.49? 85?.49? 86?.49? 87?.53? 88?.53? 89?.55? 90?.55? 91?.56? 92?.56? 93? 5 ? 50% .57? 94? 5 ? 40%? .57? 95? 3 ?.59? 96? 3 ?.59? 97?.60? 98?.60?
8、 99?2009 ?.61? 100?.61? 2011 ? 1? ?.1? 2?.5? 3?.6? 4?.7? 5?002385?.9? 6?002385?.9? 7? 335 ?.10? 8?.13? 9? 335 ?.15? 10? 335?.15? 11?.17? 12?.19? 13?.21? 14?.22? 15?.23? 16?.25? 17? .25? 18?.26? 19?.27? 20? 2009 ? 55% .27? 21?.28? 22?.28? 23? .29? 24?.29? 25? .30? 26?.31? 27? .33? 28?2004-2008 ? .34?
9、 29?2009 ?.34? 30?.37? 31?2009 ?.39? 32?2010 ? 1-6 ? .39? 33?/?.46? 34? 2011 ?.47? 35?2010-2011 ? .50? 36?.54? 37?002385?.54? 38? .54? 39? 5 ?.56? 40? .58? 41? .58? 42?2009 ?.62? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?1? ?1? GDP ? 1000 ?2? 30%?3? 30%?4? 40%? ? 1? ? ? ? ?-?-? ? ? ? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?2? 50 ? ?
10、 ? ? 1?010002000300040005000600019781985199119931995199719992001200320052007? 2?/?200250300350400450195219651978198519881991199419972000200320062009?2400?1? 1940 ? 90%?20 ? 60 ? 1991 ? 2 ? ? 90 ? 10-20?2? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?3?1? ? 1.3 ? 0.7 ? ? 20 ? 15%-20%? 55%? 3?/?1.373.200.080.030.000.501.
11、001.502.002.503.003.50? 4? ? 60% ? ?010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00019601965197019751980198519901995200020052010?USDA? ?2008 ? 1.7 ? 6900 ?3%? ? ? 5-10 ? 1-2 ? ? ? 1-2 ? ? 50%?2?2009 ? 1400 ?/? 2007 ? 32%? 5 ? 7.3%? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?4? 5?/?0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00199820002002200420062008?6
12、?/?0.0050.00100.00150.00200.001978198519881990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008?2003-2008 ? ? ? ? 250-300 ? 5-10 ? 10 ? 5%? 10 ? 70%? 8-10%? 10 ? 150%? ?3?2008 ?2009?2010 ? 7?/?100015002000250030003500400045002003112004032004072004112005032005072005112006032006
13、0720061120070320070720071120080320080720081120090320090720091120100320100720101120002500300035004000450050005500? 8?/?90001400019000240002900034000200311200403200407200411200503200507200511200603200607200611200703200707200711200803200807200811200903200907200911201003201007201011200030004000500060007
14、0008000CC Index 328? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?5? 9?/?3000600090001200015000180002004112005032005072005112006032006072006112007032007072007112008032008072008112009032009072009112010032010072010114?bloomberg? 10?/?010203040502003012003052003092004012004052004092005012005052005092006012006052006092007012
15、00705200709200801200805200810200902200906200910201002201006201010? ? 2010 ? 10 ? ?2010 ? 1-10 ? ? 18%? 7%? 6%? 5%? 23%? 5%? 42%? 44%? 10%? 0.3%? ?1?2? CPI ? 11? ?%?72%62%58%79%33%40%36%34%34%44%40%38%41%40%35%33%35%33%33%48%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%?1?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?bloomberg? 12?/?%?1?2?3?4?5?6?
16、7?8?9?10?0510152025-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%20092010? 3-6 ? 6000-6500 ?/?18000-23000 ?/? 18-22 ?/? 2?/? 2003 ? 2004 ? 2005 ? 2006 ?2007 ?2008 ?2009 ?2010 ?1-10 ?2010F 1H2011F2011F?3 ? 1134 1552 1506 1446 1548 1641 1852 1970 1950 2000 2050? 1109 1295 1214 1297 1536 1619 1618 1872 1900 1950 1980? 1
17、588 2409 2286 2303 2563 2818 2918 3038 3050 3070 3100? 1583 2409 2286 2303 2563 2819 2931 3070 3100 2150 2300? 1925 2711 2802 2938 2979 2862 2918 3592 3600 3700 3750?3 ? 2667 3257 2768 2574 3273 4526 3588 3718 3700 4000 4100? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?6 2003 ? 2004 ? 2005 ? 2006 ?2007 ?2008 ?2009 ?2010
18、 ?1-10 ?2010F 1H2011F2011F? 4 ? 6085 6457 5345 5699 8446 10021 7025 7580 7600 8000 8100? 328 ? 13777 14674 13066 13787 13424 13104 12801 17689 18000 19000 20000? 2358 2790 3423 4483 3695 3151 3920 5436 6000 6500 5500? 1074 1378 1322 1214 1878 2313 1793 1793 1950 2000 2100? 26%? 30 ?+?2009 ? 7161.4 ?
19、 08 ? 1205.9 ? 20.2%? 13? 8 ?%?010002000300040005000600070008000198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%? 2000 ? 2008 ? 934 ? 3? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?7? 30 ?1? ?2? ?3? ? 2002-2008 ? 4?%? 2002 2003 2004 2005 20
20、06 2007 2008 ? 16.9 30.7 40.7 33.9 18.6 25.7 30.3 ? 22.8 32.6 33.9 45.7 19.8 24.8 28.8 ? 24.8 19 15.4 34.7 9.7 17.3 18.1 ? 21.2 24.6 26.5 40.1 15.7 18.9 21 ? 9.2 8.3 8.6 17.4 11.9 13.2 13.8 ? 7.8 8.2 6.7 14.8 10.8 11.6 12.1 ? 4.9 5.6 6.3 8.5 6.2 6.3 6.6 ? 6 6.9 7.3 9.8 7.1 7.5 7.8 ? 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
21、2.1 1.5 1.5 ? 0.9 0.9 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 ? 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 ? 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 ? 934 ? 40%? 33.6%? A? A ? 44.5%? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?8? 14?,?2004 ? 4 ?2004 ? 3016.5 ? 64.2%?8 ? 414.1 ? 61.3%? 18 ? 342.2 ? 85.7%? 6 ? 50 ? 2000 ? 5? 2000 ? 10 ?2007 ? 2004 ?2010 ? 60%? 15?%?60%70%
22、65%70%80%0%20%40%60%80%100%? ?50? ?2000?500?5? 16?200137001400012253110591070093008319871278067413460827261767020004000600080001000012000140001600019801985199019952000200120022003200420052006200720082009? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?9?002385? A ? 5 ? 17?002385?1998?1000?1?4400?22?,?1.2?,?100?2008?2012?,?
23、 5?002385? 2006 2007 2008 2009 ? 9,963.00 12,409.00 11,812.00 13,651.00 ? 162,570.43 227,030.69 360,717.86 397,537.76 ? 6.13% 5.47% 3.27% 3.43% ? 6?002385? 18?%?33.1%38.6%31.27%18.9%14.3%13.11%10.42%7.76%6.20%0%10%20%30%40%50%200720082009? 19?%?8.80%8.02%8.31%16.28%20.95%9.46%6.53%6.60%7.99%10.80%9.
24、32%7.91%8.37%10.80%17.78%13.00%17.90%19.78%16.01%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2006200720082009?002311? 700 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?10?20?%?28.0%21.2%17.0%22.3%20.5%54.8%7.5%60.5%13.1%13.0%13.0%5.4%8.9%9.7%6.0%10.1%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%? 21?%?45.6%45.0%49.1%41.3%9.5%10.2%11.3%12.1%1
25、4.8%12.9%10.1%14.2%7.0%4.8%4.9%6.1%2.9%2.4%2.8%2.0%6.2%5.5%6.1%6.6%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%2006200720082009H1?2006 ? 335 ?2009? 7? 335 ? 335 ?4400 ?/?8800 ?/? 2007 ? 200 ?2600? ?800?8500? 1 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?11? 3-5 ? 80 ? DNA ? ? ? ? EMBL? ? Gene bank? DDBL ? DNA ?,?,? 80 ?2006-202
26、0 ? ? ? ? 3-5 ? 7 ? 5 ?4%? 2%? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?12? 22? 6 ?3000035000400004500050000550001979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009?23? 8 ?%?010002000300040005000600070008000198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009-4
27、0%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%? 2003 ? 36%? 40%?2008 ?2003 ? 8%? 21%? 15%? 60%? 40%? 24?%?-5%0%5%10%15%1964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009?4? 25? 335 ?41712501892316743750100020003000400050002006/072007/082008/092009/10E2010/11E?335? ? ? 40%? 60%? 26? 335 ?%?01000200030
28、004000500006/0707/0808/0909/1010/11E0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%?335?%? 27? 50%?12.755.720.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.00?2010? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?13? ? 2007 ? 7 ? 2009 ? 12 ? 28 ? 8-12%? 2 ? 6 ?-?-?-?-?-? 2006 ? 335 ?5 ? 1%? 10%? 15%? ? 50%?90%? ? ? ?20%? 5%? ? 50%? 100%? ? ? ? 30 ? ? 50%
29、? 8? %? 40% 70% 65% ? 30% 74% 50% ? 45% - 60% ? - 60% - ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?14? 28?%?32%17%27%6%6%2%10%? 29?%?100%98%90%80%60%50%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%?1? 335 ? 30 ? 3 ? 4000 ? 13? ? 108? 958? ? 13 ? 1 ? 958 ? 8000 ? 2000 ? 335? 20? 981 ?2001 ? 958 ? 3 ? 2135 ?5 ? 8000 ? ?2006 ? 335 ? 3 ? 2000
30、? ? 30? 10 ?01000200030004000500060007000200120022003200420052006200720082009?108?958? 31?050010001500200025003000200120022003200420052006200720082009?981?20?335? 13? 958? 20? 981 ? 1 ? 18%-30%? 3 ? ? 335? 958? 20? 1 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?15? 335 ? 32? 335 ?/?52500380002270050001500026,66725,3332
31、3,33319,33316,667010000200003000040000500006000006/0707/0808/0909/10E10/11E15,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,00029,000? 33?%?24318.0033804.0041796.0048114.0050274.0067.61%69.35%69.78%69.40%68.94%67%67%68%68%69%69%70%70%2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E0100002000030000400005000060000? ? ? ? 9? 335 ? 335
32、 ?4400 ?/?8800 ?/? 2007 ? 200 ? 2600 ? 800 ? 8500 ? 1 ? 335? 335? 10? 335? 335? 335 ?+? ?1?2?/? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?16? ?3?/? ?4? ?2010 ?335 ?2? ? 50%? 30%-40%? 4.4 ? 2.5 ? 2 ? 0.5 ? 34?%?2.28%2.63%2.64%2.54%2.76%2.92%1.63%1.26%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%20012002200320042005200620072008?10? 35?%?0%
33、20%40%60%80%100%197319761979198219851988199119941997200020032006? 725? 188 ? 725 ? 52.7%? 188 ? 87.3%? 12.7%? 207? 974? 46 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?17? 11?1? 2005005 2? 706? 23AR706 ? 2005079 3 T ? 705 T98AR705 ? 2005004 4? 819? 18S? 819 ? 2008005 5 T ? 706? 001? T98AR706 ? 2003023 6? 2005076 7? 733
34、?819 ? 99? 1SE599 ? 2004003 8? 2004008 9? 213? 23AR213 ? 2005006 10? 2006009 11 ? 898? 23AR898 ? 2005077 12 T ? 167 T98ALZ14?167? 2007006 13 T ? 898 T98AR898 ? 2005080 14 T ? 463 T98AT0463 ? 2005081?15? 458? 23AR458 ? 2008007 16? 233? 23ALZ160 ? 2009007 17? 402 ? 006 T98AR402 ? 2005078 18? 2004034?1
35、9? 2006019 20T ? 6135 T98AR61-3-5 ? 2005057 21? 527? A? 527? 2007038 22 C ? 1102 C815S1102 ? 2008032 23 Y ? 19 Y58S19 ? 2008023 24? 1993 ? 64SR1993 ? 2009005 25? 2469 ? 63SR2469 ? 2009032 26 C ? 608 C815SR608 ? 2009027 27? 52? 2007017 ?28? 524? AR524 ? 2007032 29 T ? 640 T98AR640 ? 2005014 30? 640?
36、AR640 ? 2005015 31? 2006024?32? 2006004?33? 2005001 ?34? 2005026 ? ?35? 2005001 36? 527? S? 527XS006-2003 37? 2005022 38? 2004021 39? 06010495 10? 416?-32AR416 ? 2005013 ?41? 2005018 ?42? 416? 97A R416 ? 2006021 43 T ? 855 T98AR855 ? 2005017 ?44? 399? AAG ? 2006033 ?45 D ? 618 D62AR618 ? 2007019 ?46
37、? 0293 ? 2006045 47? 293P88S0293 ? 2006029 48? 107? AW107 ? 2006040 49 T ? 300 T98AR527 ? 2005017 50 T ? 618 T98AR611 ? 2006035 51? 2006036 52? 2008001 53Y ? 1 ? Y58S9311 ? 2008001 54? 416? 46AR416 ? 2006038 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?18?55? 1169 1161S9311 ? 2004007 56 II ? 107 II-32AW107 ? 06010494 5
38、7? 1141 ? SR1141 ? 2008021 58? 1102 ? SR1102 ? 2008020 59 T98A/R207 XS011-2003 60 T98A/R207 ? 2006012 61 T ? 210? 2002002 ?62 T98 ? 207? 2001065 ?63T ? 207? 207? 2005036 64? 9 ? A9 ? 2004024 65? 210? A/210 XS014-2003 66? 299? A? 299? 2004011 67 H37 ? 207 H37AR207 ? 2005024 68 T ? 968 T98AR968 ? 2005
39、034 69? 968? 23AR968 ? 2005035 70 T ? 615 T98A? 615? 2006036 71? 208? A? 207? 2006047 72? 048 T98AR4480 ? 2005037 73? 103? 70A? 103 ? 2009045 74 T ? 118 T98AR118 ? 2009044 75? 2001103 ?76? 020-2002 77? 225 ?78? 207 ? 207? 23A? 207 ? 243 ?79? 2004030 80? 191? A? 191? 2001003 ?81? 416? AR416 ? 2004029
40、 82? 2004013 83T ? 111 T98AY111 ? 2006004 ?84 T ? 597 T98A? 597?R597? 2005025 85? 2005032 86? 227? A R227 ? 2009030 87? 640? 23A R640 ? 2005034 88? 6135 ? 4A R61-3-5 ? 2005037 89? 527? 2007042 90? 6021161S? 527 ? 2006051 91? 2007057 92? 2008015 93? 893? SR893 ? 2008018 94 T ? 608 T98AR608 ? 2006049
41、95? 305 T98AR569 ? 2006050 96? 216? AZ216 ? 2007021 97? 1202 ? SR1202 ? 2007020 98? 601? A? 838? 2004008 99? 608? SR608 ? 2009032 100 ? ? 46? ? 46? 608 1161SR608 ? 2009021 101 ? 1102 ? AR1102 ? 2007027 ? 2015 ? 36000 ? 80%? 14000? 30%? 16000 ?2008 ? 8342 ? 19.2%? ? 35%? 1 ?5000 ?500 ? 2011 ? 2010 ?
42、12 ? 15 ?19? ? ? 60%? 2008 ? 155711 ? ? 139617? 90%? 60%? FAO ?1993 ? 4 ? 1 ? 5 ? 9.23 ? 12?/? 29230 11200 44000 4260 7305 ? 17500 300 1100 341 650 ? 60% 7% 4.8% 12.2% 18.8% ? 6.61 4 3.37 3.82 4.88 ? 2 ? 40%? 76%? 30 ?/? 25 ? 20 ?/? 3%-5%? 4%? 8?10 ? 330 ? 3-5 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?201? ? ? 6 ? ?
43、 ? ? ? 40%? ?2? 958 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2010/11 ?1? 10%-15%? 15%-20%? 2011 ? 4.9 ? 2.5 ? 2.3 ?2010 ? 388 ? 16.5%? 11.5 ? 4.5%? 4.3 ?2010 ? 15.8 ? 1.9%? 2011? 4.9 ? 11.3 ? 4.5 ? 6.3%? 36?%?-20%-26%34%33%-35%3%4%10%-2%7%13%-15%-11%1%4%4%-40%-20%0%20%40%?2003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/10E2010
44、/11E? 37?2.624.458.77.35.324.55.24.50.340.40.470.820.550.350.40.190.02.04.06.08.010.0?2003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/10E2010/11E?2? ? ? 25%? ? ? 40%? ? 100 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?21?2010 ? 150 ? 9.5%? 2.54 ? 7.2%? 0.47 ?2010 ? 3 ? 5.6%? 2011 ? 2.58 ? 2.6 ? 0.4 ?3? 2011 ? 7300 ? 210
45、0 ? 1.1 ? 105 ? 1.1 ? 1800 ? 1.28 ? 5200 ? 2000 ? 750 ? 7? 600 ? 300 ? 2008 ?2008 ? 600 ? ? 2008 ? 300 ? ? 5%? ? 2009? 150 ? 80 ? 3000 ? 1840? 1000 ? 700 ? 13?M3?/?/? 6,000 20 40 60 33.33% 66.67% ? 5,000 19 5 24 79.17% 20.83% ? 0 0 20 20 0 100.00% ? 0 0 2.5 2.5 0 100.00% ? 0 0 2 2 0 100.00% ? 0 0 2
46、2 0 100.00% ? - 0 0 - - 18.75% 81.25% ? 0 0 2 2 0 100.00% ? 0 0 1.5 1.5 0 100.00% ? 0 0 1.2 1.2 0 100.00% ? 0 0 1 1 0 100.00% ? 0 0 0.8 0.8 0 100.00% ? - - - - - 0 100% ? 5,000 5 5 10 50.00% 50.00% ? 10,000 2.5 5 7.5 33.33% 66.67% ? 12,000 5 0.5 5.5 90.91% 9.09% ? 0 0 4 4 0 100.00% ? 10,000 1 0 1 10
47、0.00% 0 ? - - - - - 54.85% 45.15% ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?22? 18.75%? 100%? 54.85%? 45.15%? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 25%? 40%? 20%? 50%? 100%? 2-3 ? 14? ?, ? ? ?/? 0 ?/? 0 ?20 ? 60 ? 100 ? 90 ? 10 ? 15 ? 11 ? 10 ?2005 ? 73 ? 9 ? 12%? 63 ? 86%? 2%? 9 ? 3 ? 6 ?51 ? 4 ?92%? ? ? 70 ? 75%? ? 2 ? 2 ? 3 ? 2011 ? 201
48、0 ? 12 ? 15 ?23? ? 6 ? 10 ?8 ? 20 ? 30 ? 20 ? 70 ? 20 ?6 ? 80%-100%? 5 ? 4-5 ? 2 ? 70 ? 3.5 ? 90 ? 1 ? ? 80 ? ? 50%?2009 ? 15306 ? 449 ? 12852? 2005 ? 20 ? 70 ? 40 ? 5000 ? 1500 ? 45 ? 0.2 ?3-5 ? ? 15? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?24? 30 ? GENUS?Aviagen? ?Cobb?Hubbard? 51%? 38?2008 ? 39?2008 ? 40? 41? 201
49、1 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?25? PIC ?PIC ? 1996 ? PIC ?PIC ? 8 ? 26 ? BLUP ?PIC ?WOLDO ? 16? 80 ? 80%? 11 ? 5 ? 50%? ABS ? - ?PIC?1962?40?PIC?30?300?PIC?Genus?GENUS?ABS?SyAqua?ABS? ?20 ? 21 ? ? 17? - ? - - ? 50 ? 2 ? ? 48 ? 12 ? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?26? 42?100%?75%604530150? 2009 ? 12 ? 4910 ? 25%? 70%?
50、 859 ? 20 ? 3000 ? 100%? 750 ? 30 ? 4478? 600 ? 18? 6.68 5000 3.34 ? 125 2000 25 ? 2911 1500 437 ? 61000 - - ?20?/? 10 ? 50 ? 2000 ? 5000 ? 800 ? 1200 ? 600 ?30%? 300 ? 40%? 120 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?272011 ? 2006 ? 75%?80-90%?70%? 6 ? 50 ? 2000 ? 5 ? 2000 ? 10 ?2009 ? 55%? 2007 ? 78 ? ?1985 ? 2.
51、9%? ? ? 2000 ? 75%? 19? 50 ?(? 50 ?)? 50100 ? 100 ? 1000 ? 1000 ? 20? 2009 ? 55% ?%?%?1-49 6996 ? 96.7% 44.1 50-99 162 ? 2.2 12.9 100-499 63 ? 0.88 15.7 500-999 11 ? 0.15 8.4 1000-2999 4 ? 0.06 7.1 3000-4999 8744 0.01 3.7 5000-9999 4172 0.006 3.1 10000-49999 2432 0.003 4.3 50000 ? 69 0.0001 0.64 ?20
52、09? ? 50-100 ? 10 ? 1000 ? 1%? 2002-2007 ?+? ? 10 ? 50%? 102 ? 17%?Triumph food ? 39.6 ? 6.6%? ? 10? 78%? 3 ? 54%? ? 10 ? 35%? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?28? 21?20 ? 70 ?20 ? 80 ?20 ? 90 ? 1000 ? 1987 ? 37%? 1992 ? 47%? 1997? 71%?21 ? 1000 ? 2003 ? 8 ? 6000 ? 43? ?%?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%200020012002200320
53、042005200620072008? 44? ? 2007 ? ? %?50%78%35%0%20%40%60%80%100%?Feed International? 5 ? 2007 ? 3.5%-4%?1? 2000 ? 3.31%? 30 ? 32%?2?3? 90 ? ? ? ? 22? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?294?2008 ? 3 ?(?)?2009 ? 2010 ? 30 ?2008 ?(2008 ?2015 ?)?2015 ? 65%? ? 23? 57 ? 57 ? 35 ? 35 ? 25KG ? ? 100KG ? 90 ? 24? ? ?
54、2-3 ? 2 ? 60 ?/? 2 ? 60 ?/? 1 ? 20 ?/? 2 ? 180 ?/? 2 ? 90 ?/?2007-2009?2010 ? 16? 514 ?1,065 ?1,579 ?1,229 ?2009 ? 5.83 ?/? 10 ?/? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?30? 45?%?05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002007200820092010E 2011E 2012E0%50%100%150%200%? 46?%?2.552.012.030.08%0.03%0.02%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.0
55、02007200820090.00%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.08%0.10%? 25? ? ? ? ? 10%? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?31? 26? 15 ? 1.2 ? 2012 ? 8 ? 2 ? 7.5 ? 2009.9.2-2010.9.1 ? 8.5 ? 2010.1.1-2010.12.31 ? 13.5 ? 2010.1.10-2011.1.10 ? 150 ? 2009.12.25-2010.12.25 ? 2000 ? 2010.1.20-2011.1.20 ? 2000 ? 20
56、10.1.10-2011.1.10 ? ? 26 ? 2004-2006 ? ? ? ? 16%?47? 20%? %?24.36%16.93%26.77%21.02%20.89%15%17%19%21%23%25%27%29%20052006200720082009H1?06? 48? ?%?15%15%25%45%? ISO9001:2000 ?HACCP ?2 ?2 ?2 ?2 ? 1 ? ? 45%-54%? 68-75%? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?32? 49? 50?%?56%54%52%50%48%46%44%42%40%20051H06 2H06 1H07
57、 2H07 1H08 2H08 1H09? 51? ?%?58,994.0923,661.8838,326.6542.71%45.54%41.02%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00020062007200838%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%46%? 52?%?11,478.4721,339.3125,231.4019.90%19.48%23.78%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002006200720080%5%10%15%20%25%? 45%? 54%?2011 ?2007?2008 ?
58、 2009 ? 2010 ?1-4 ? 12.5 ?/? 4 ? 9.4 ?/? 25%? 5-6 ? 9 ? 12.6 ?/? 34%? 30.01 ?/?32.86 ?/?13.05 ?/? 4 ? 4.24%?8.81%?14.6%? 2%?6%?8%? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?33? ? 27? 53?0246810121416200001200005200009200101200105200109200201200205200209200301200305200309200401200405200409200501200505200509200601200605
59、200609200701200705200709200801200805200809200901200905200909201001201005201009?2003?2004?2005?2010 ? 9 ? 27 ? 51.8%? 5 ?5?6 ?8?9 ? 1.1 ?/? 5%? 1200 ? 40 ? 140 ? 20 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?34? 54?2008 ?150150010005004006084060040020002004006008001000120014001600? 20 ? 50 ?70 ?80 ?90 ?20 ? 90 ?2002 ?
60、 28?2004-2008 ? 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ? 4.9 6.1 7.1 7.8 9.3 ? 3.3 4.8 5.8 6.4 11.2 ? FDA? 25%? 40%? 20%?2009 ? 449 ? 29?2009 ?1? 6,200 ? 0.78% 2? 2,500 ? 0.31% 3? 2,500 ? 0.31% 4? 1,000 ? 0.13% ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?352008 ? 9.3 ? 11.2 ?2009 ? 80 ? 150 ? ? ? ? ? ? 11 ? 100 ? 1.5-2 ? 55?%? 56?%
61、?4%10%4%36%46%? 2009 ? 5%? 30%? ? 1990 ? 9.82 ? 2007 ? 19.56? 2003 ? ? ? ? 2002 ? 97 ?/? ? 2007 ? 170?/?2008 ? 200 ? 2008 ? 2009 ? 200 ?2010 ? 20-30 ?/? 40-50 ?/? 20%-40%? 10%? ? 400-500 ? 60%?+20%?+20%? 10 ? 20 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?36? 10 ? 10 ? 57?024681020042005200620072008024681012?58?280.28
62、349.18444.47551.39270.97211.68164.78115.240100200300400500600? ? 3-6 ?9 ? ?4 ?1 ? 2 ? 4 ? 59?/?50100150200250041105050305050705051105060305060705061105070305070705071105080305080705081105090305090705091105100305100705?Wind? 60?/?100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00200.00220.00240.0008053008073008093008113
63、0090130090330090530090730090930091130100130100330100530100730?Wind? 120-140 ?/? 200-240 ?/? 1 ? ? 50%? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?37?(?)? 30?1?2?1?2?3?4?1?2?1?2? ? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?38?61?%?0%5%10%15%20%199920042009? 62?%?60.54%67.76%53.35%50%55%60%65%70%199920042009? 7?8 ? ?2009 ? 28%? 35%? 22
64、.5%? 28.2%? 1.2 ? 1.48 ? 300 ? 1.5 ? 10 ? 63?%?10.80%28%25.55%23.30%19.15%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%20022003200720082009? 64? 100 ? ?9765443222290246810?Feed International? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?392009 ? 2010 ?2009 ? 15%-20%? 116 ? 8.3%?2010 ? 10%? 10 ? 20%? 31?2009 ?%? 21.0% 5.0% 15.
65、5% 15.0% 84.0% 15.0% 5.0% ?2009? 32?2010 ? 1-6 ?%? 10 ? 1-2 ? 1 ? 6.5% ? 9.1% ? 29.3% ? 0.5 ? 19.5% ?1978 ? 4000 ? 10000 ?30 ? ? ? 2005 ? 1.47? 1978 ? 270%? 300 ? 80 ? 90 ? 65?0400080001200016000197819951999200020012002200320042005020004000600080001000012000?66?1.191.321.391.451.551.531.541.361.231.
66、100200040006000800010000120001400016000180002001200220032004200520062007200820092010E0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80? ? ? ? 3-5 ? 20%-40%? 40%?+? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?40? 67? 1995 ? ? 1995 ? ? 68?78910111213141516171994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009?1?3:?2:?
67、? ? 2009 ? 2010 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?41? 69?/?01020304050200003200009200103200109200203200209200303200309200403200409200503200509200603200609200703200709200803200810200904200910201004201010? 70?/?5791113151720000420001020010420011020020420021020030420031020040420041020050420051020060420061020070
68、4200710200804200810200904200910201004201010? 71?/?0.81.31.82.32.83.3200004200010200104200110200204200210200304200310200404200410200504200510200604200610200704200710200804200810200904200910201004201010? 72?/?2.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.9320090220090420090620090820091020091220100220100420100620100820101000
69、.511.522.5? 4 ?7 ?8-11%? 8%?11%?10%? 73?%?02004006008001000120014001600200008200101200106200111200204200209200302200307200312200406200411200504200509200602200607200612200705200710200803200808200901200906200911201004201009-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%?%? 2011 ? 2010 ? 1
70、2 ? 15 ?42? 4 ?4-10 ? 0.5%? 6-10%? 60-70%? 20-30%? DDGS ? 10%?60%? 20%? 20%? 1%? 2009 ? 2010 ? 3058 ? 0.3%? ?10 ? 74?/?11001200130014001500160017001800190020002100200901200903200905200907200909200911201001201003201005201007201009201011? 75? FOB ?/?1000120014001600180020000911300912311001311002281003
71、31100430100531100630100731100831100930101031? ? - FOB?Bloomberg? 70%? 90%?2010 ?30%? 17.7 ? 80%?1-9 ? 4016 ? 24%?10 ? 380-400 ? 11 ? 12 ? 470-480 ? 480-500 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?43? 76?%?56789101112131419990519991020000320000820010120010620011120020420020920030220030720031220040520041020050320050
72、8200601200606200611200704200709200802200807200812200905200910201003201008?7? 77?%?0%5%10%15%20%25%1994121995121996121997121998121999122000122001122002122003122004122005122006122007122008122009122009?11.09%2010?1-6? 9.5%2010? 9.78%?wind? 7 ? ? 7 ? 90%? 2010 ? 1-9 ? 2010 ? 1-6 ? 13%? 11%? 7-9 ? 26.7%?
73、 78?2010 ? 1-9 ? 11% ?%?334.83%10.65%76.38%76.90%-182.06%21.49%-43.87%-28.93%12.10%22.72%71.37%34.46%78.09%-147.12%-78.99%50.83%-547.39%-600%-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%?Wind? 3 ? 1993 ? 5 ? 1 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?44? 79?0%5%10%15%20%25%19781985198619871988198919901991199219931994
74、1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010E? 1718 ? 1994 ? 2-3 ? 80?-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009? ? 81? 5 ? ?%?-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%200608200701200706200711200804200809200902200907200912201005201010? 82?
75、6 ?%?-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%201001201002201003201004201005201006201007201008201009201010? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?45?5 ?8-10 ?8-10 ? 21.61%?14.59%?13.26%? 6.75%?5.34%?5.73%? 4-5%? 2011 ? 5-10 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2011 ? ? ?5-10 ? 30 ? ? ? ? 1 ? ? ? 1 ? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?46? 2011 ? ? 2009 ? 6 ? ? 2010 ?
76、 A ? 33?/?EPS?RMB ?PE?20082009 2010E 2011E2012E200820092010E2011E2012E PB PS ?000998 ?31.00 0.160.18 0.30 0.501.20 194 172 103 62 26 9.39 8.15 ?42.00002041 ?69.60 0.010.53 1.30 2.003.00 6960131 54 35 23 14.49 21.15 ?90.00002385 ?42.11 0.360.7 0.87 1.331.72 117 60 48 32 24 5.68 4.25 ?60.00000713 ?19.
77、57 0.1 0.25 0.49 0.660.75 196 78 40 30 26 7.87 5.05 ?22.50600354 ?36.72 0.070.16 0.4 1.201.40 525 230 92 31 26 11.73 4.51 ?42.00002311 ?32.29 0.450.53 0.67 1.001.30 72 61 48 32 25 4.30 1.79 ?45.50600195 ?25.79 0.420.58 0.80 0.951.10 61 44 32 27 23 6.90 4.78 ?33.00002299 ?32.40 0.440.49 0.68 1.131.59
78、 74 66 48 27 20 8.02 9.24 ?45.20000876 ?19.02 0.520.60 0.76 1.011.30 37 32 25 19 15 4.20 2.33 ?24.00600298 ?46.18 0.390.77 1.05 1.301.63 118 60 44 36 28 10.33 8.38 ?50.00600737 ?13.99 0.310.27 0.35 0.500.70 45 52 40 28 20 4.48 4.89 ?15.00002069 ?44.95 0.280.46 0.96 1.381.60 161 98 47 33 28 13.09 13.
79、44 ?56.00002477 ?56.94 0.470.66 0.84 1.221.87 121 86 68 47 30 4.98 14.05 ?-300087 ?80.70 0.460.64 0.8 1.022.00 175 126 101 79 40 8.14 26.04 ?-002100 ?20.49 0.310.43 0.40 0.620.79 66 47 52 33 26 4.56 2.24 ?25.00600438 ?10.03 0.150.21 0.25 0.400.50 67 48 40 25 20 4.84 0.66 ?12.00000911 ?20.15 0.090.43
80、 1.00 1.150.90 224 47 20 18 22 4.33 1.64 ?-000860 ?24.98 0.5 0.37 0.78 0.851.00 50 68 32 29 25 4.18 1.80 ?30.00002157 ?16.68 0.150.26 0.36 0.510.70 111 64 46 33 24 4.94 1.01 ?21.00000910 ?9.59 0.380.39 0.50 0.620.75 25 25 19 15 13 2.37 0.79 ?12.00600467 ?14.26 0.2 0.12 0.24 0.300.50 71 119 59 48 29
81、6.82 17.10 ?-600978 ?6.85 0.180.29 0.35 0.390.45 38 24 20 18 15 2.02 3.67 ?9.00 600598 ?13.95 0.360.22 0.32 0.370.42 39 63 44 38 33 4.48 3.80 ?-600201 ?14.45 0.260.24 0.39 0.480.55 56 60 37 30 26 4.99 5.92 ?-000061 ?20.23 0.120.13 0.24 0.300.50 169 156 84 67 40 5.00 12.48 ?-000972 ?12.96 -0.160.03 0
82、.20 0.350.50 -81 432 65 37 26 4.19 3.76 ?-? ?2010?12?3? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?47? 34? 2011 ? 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 000998 ?0.27 0.18 0.01 -0.06 0.37 002041 ?0.61 1.15 0.45 -0.28 0.68 002385 ?0.38 0.42 0.29 0.18 0.44 000713 ?0.16 0.25 0.16 0.05 0.20 600354 ?0.52 0.55 0.32 -0.18 0.51 002
83、311 ?0.00 0.15 0.33 0.50 0.02 600195 ?0.16 0.35 0.21 0.17 0.22 002299 ?0.31 0.15 0.18 0.31 0.35 000876 ?0.26 0.21 0.25 0.24 0.31 600298 ?0.38 0.15 0.26 0.38 0.51 600737 ?0.18 0.10 0.08 0.17 0.15 002069 ?0.32 0.32 0.21 0.38 0.47 002477 ?0.52 0.15 0.25 0.32 0.50 300087 ?0.63 0.20 0.25 -0.10 0.67 00210
84、0 ?0.02 0.12 0.15 0.20 0.15 600438 ?-0.07 0.05 0.10 0.30 -0.05 000911 ?0.70 0.40 0.13 0.06 0.56 000860 ?0.25 0.25 0.15 0.19 0.26 002157 ?0.17 0.08 0.15 0.17 0.11 000910 ?0.21 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.23 600467 ?0.12 0.05 0.10 0.03 0.12 600978 ?0.14 0.08 0.11 0.05 0.15 600598 ?0.16 0.06 0.08 0.05 0.18 600201
85、 ?0.07 0.13 0.10 0.14 0.11 000061 ?-0.18 0.07 0.22 -0.15 0.16 000972 ?0.72 0.13 0.08 -0.02 0.16 ? 2009 ? 8 ? ? ?+? ? ? 2-3?09/10 ? ? ?1?6 ? ?+? ?+? ?2011 ?2? 2010/11 ? 0.6 ? 2 ? ?+12%? ? 2011 ? 335 ? 8%? 12%?3? 2011 ? 40%?4?2011 ?5?6?2009 ? 12 ? 2010 ? 8 ?2010? 9?10 ? ?2011 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?
86、48? 2010 ? 2011 ? ? ? ? ? ?1? 2007 ? 50 ? ?2? ? ?2010/11 ? USDA ? 11.50 ?/?$2250/? ? 10.65-10.95 ?/?2010/11 ? 45? 10%-15%? 3.0%?1750-1850 ?/? 15%? 15%? 10%? 30%? 2010/11 ? 2008 ? 36/38%? 900 ?/? 2010/11 ? 1200 ?/?2010/11 ? 400 ?/? ?3? 2010/11 ? 1170 ? 760 ? 200 ? 100 ? 20 ? 52 ? 42 ? ? 1070 ? 1300 ?
87、 10 ? 5%?2010/2011 ? 1400 ? 100 ? 6500 ? 7000 ?/? 2010/11 ? 11 ? 10 ? 2010/11 ? 350 ?/? ? 4800 ?/? 6%?750 ?/? 2010 ? 4 ? 20 ? EPS0.52 ? EPS0.8 ?4? ?1? 6 ? ?2? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?49? ?3?2011 ? ?000998? ? ? ? ? 3-5 ? 83?%? 84? 4 ?29.1171.5269.735637.9449.3343.7748.470204060802006200720082009? 85?%
88、?1015202530354045200120022003200420052006200720082009?%? 86?-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009? 20 ? 69 ? ? 3 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?50? 2004 ? 6 ?1?2009 ? 2 ?2?3?1?2? ? ?3? 3 ? ?2011 ? ? 65%? 50%? 35?2010-2011 ?1? 942? 2010 ?2010 ?2? 21? 2010 ?3? 211 ? 20
89、10 ?4? 611 ? 2010 ?5 Y ? 1 ? 2010 ? ?2010 ?6 C ? 608?2010 ?2009 ?7? 1141 ? 2008 ?2010 ?8? 608?2009 ? ?2010 ?9 Y ? 19? 2008 ?10? 2469 ? 2009 ?11 ? 0293 ? 2006 ?12? 1128 ? 1180 ?2011 ?2010 ?13?R2010 ?14? 299? 2010 ?207 ?2004 ?2005 ?15? 9586 ? 2011 ?16?gc219 ? 2010 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?51? 2011 ?1?
90、 ? 40%? ?2? Y ? 20 ?/? 60%? ? 206? 18 ?/? ? 16 ? 2011 ? 16? 3 ? 14.8%? 528.0 ? 782 ?/? 7.61%? 4.60%? 74.40%? 0.32%? 2-3 ? 335 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 3 ? 12%? 30%? 35%? 50%? 1%? 15%? 30%? 60%? ? 42 ? 2-3?2011 ?EPS ? 0.8 ? ? 2010 ? 3 ? 2010/11 ?10/11/12 ? EPS 0.30/0.50/1.2 ? ?2012 ? 2-3 ? 200 ? 85 ? ?6-12 ? 42
91、 ? 2012 ? 35 ? PE? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?52?1?2?3?4? MVG AG ?1993-2001 ?2001-2009 ? 335 ? 4 ? 50%?2008 ? ?2008 ?20 ?2009 ? ?100 ? 10 ?2010 ? 10 ? 2010 ? 6 ? 350 ? 2.2 ? ? ? ? 10%-15%? 335 ?2010/11 ? 8%? 18%? ? ? 2010/11? 335 ? 2.3-2.5 ? 18%-20%? 8% ? 50 ? ? 2011/10 ? 335 ?5%? ? 2011 ? 16%? 1.6 ?
92、EPS ? 1 ? ?1?2? 09 ? 1500 ?/? 350-400 ? ? 1800-2000 ?/?3? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?53? 50%? 2011 ? 2010/11 ? ? ? ? ? 1 ? 50%-100%? 2012 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 90 ? ? ? 335 ? EPS 0.75? EPS 0.17 ? EPS 0.28 ? EPS 0.1 ? ? ? ?10/11/12 ? EPS1.30/2.00/3.0 ? ?2012 ? 2-3 ? 90 ? 2012 ? 30 ? PE? ?002385? ? ?06-09 ? 3
93、0%? 36%? 23%? 5 ?09 ? 20 ? 3%? 5 ? 20%? 10%? ? 0.2-0.3? 87?0501001502002502007200820092010E2011E2012E0%10%20%30%40%50%?%? 88?010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002007200820092010E2011E2012E2013E2014E30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%?%? 2008 ? 300? 1%? 6 ?08 ? 4.4%? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?54? 169 ? 55 ? 6
94、? 108 ? ?2011 ?C ? 396? 101 ? ? ? ? ? 508 ? 5 ? 30 ? 151 ? 40 ? 17 ? 13 ? ? 3 ? 3.79 ? 3.8%? 66.4%?2+2? 36? 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?9,963.00 12,409.00 11,812.00 13,651.00 ?162,570.43 227,030.69 360,717.86 397,537.76 ?6.13% 5.47% 3.27% 3.43% ? 37?002385? 4000? ? 38?1?2?3?4?5?6?7? ? ? ? ? 3 ? ? 2011 ? 20
95、10 ? 12 ? 15 ?55? 89?299101012816928181920151314121311? 90?667778899112225139? 20 ? 400 ? 33 ? 17 ? 2009 ? 128 ? 2012 ? 285 ? 123%? 2009 ? 99 ? 225 ? 127%?1?2? 101 ? 1-2 ?3?4?5? 5 ? 35%? ? 60 ? 10 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 3 ?2010/11 ? 101 ? ? 2011 ? 3 ?10/11/12 ? EPS0.87/1.33/1.72 ? ? 60 ? ? ? 60 ? 2011 ? 45
96、 ? PE? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?56?002299? ? ? ?2005-2009 ? 24.86%? 24.94%? 2005 ? 0.55%? 2009 ? 1.10%? 2009 ? 6700 ?2010 ? 9400 ? 2012 ? 2.1 ? 09 ? 13.4 ? 40 ? 3-5 ? 39? 5 ? 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ? 1,009 1,037 1,142 1,195 1,222 ? 5.70 6.73 8.25 10.75 13.81 ? 5.53 6.80 8.14 10.55 13.45 ? 0.55% 0.
97、66% 0.71% 0.88% 1.10% ? 97.10% 101.00% 98.63% 98.15% 97.39% ? 45%? 54%? 1500 ? ? 91?%?56%54%52%50%48%46%44%42%40%20051H06 2H06 1H07 2H07 1H08 2H08 1H09? 92?%?15%15%25%45%? ? ?5 ? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?57? 45.20 ?2010?2011?2012 ? 3.0?3.1?3.1 ? ? ? ? ?10/11/12? EPS ? 0.68/1.13/1.59 ? ? ? 3-5 ? 45%?
98、 2011 ? 40 ?PE ? 45.20 ?002477? ? ? ? 2007-2009 ? ? 13.37?24.91 ?48.38 ? 90.27%? 2010-2012 ? 70?100?150 ? 30%?09 ? 0.08%? 93? 5 ? 50%?0.050.0100.0150.0200.02007200820092010E2011E2012E2013E2014E? 94? 5 ? 40%?1078125893420429108313536020086527694763149140.17%37.88%48.39%48.61%44.23%50.21%62.37%050,000
99、100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002007200820092010E2011E2012E2013E2014E0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%?%? ? ? ? ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?58? ? ? 40? 57 ? 57 ? 35 ? 35 ? 25KG ? ? 100KG ? 90 ? ? ? ? 1 ?10/11/12EPS 0.84/1.22/1.87 ? ? 3 ? 41? 2008 2009 2010F 2011F2012F? 2008 2009 2010F 2011F2012F?36416
100、54108 74284 102148 151356 ?7198 6947 59128 33545 30271 ?26892 41930 58410 80225117677 ?12752 17507 23948 32892 48248 ?26.2% 22.5% 21.4% 21.5%22.3%?792 2026 2872 3321 5480 ?0 0 0 0 0 ?4461 3364 4534 6634 10348 ?762 861 1480 1933 2762 ?25204 29844 90482 76393 94347 ?2.1% 1.6% 2.0% 1.9%1.8%?6374 15531
101、38388 65692 76909 ?1744 2452 3306 4597 6357 ?335 335 335 335 335 ?4.8% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%4.2%?6407 6086 6086 6086 6086 ?1084 1170 581 64 381 ?9693 13089 17300 21157 24664 ?3.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1%0.3%?22808 35040 62108 93270 107994 ?0 11 0 0 0 ?48012 64884 152591 169662 202341 ?5977 7657 10381 15329 24157 ?1
102、6400 17700 0 0 9999 ?16.4% 14.2% 14.0% 15.0%16.0%?1569 1891 2327 3831 5205 ?438 1301 1000 1000 1000 ?7144 3760 6340 9019 10385 ?165 69 69 0 0 ?25113 23351 8667 12850 25589 ?6250 8888 11312 16329 25157 ?4000 4109 4109 4109 4109 ?0 56 71 69 340 ?208 841 841 841 841 ?0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%1.4%?4208 4950 4
103、950 4950 4950 ?0 0 0 0 0 ?29321 28301 13617 17800 30540 ?6250 8832 11240 16261 24817 ?4500 10000 13350 13350 13350 ?17.2% 16.3% 15.1% 15.9%16.4%?1 20444 110894 110894 110894 ?17111 36583 138973 151862 171801 ?0 0 0 0 0 ?46432 64884 152591 169662 202341 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?59? 2008 2009 2010F 20
104、11F2012F?6250 8888 11312 16329 25157 ? 2008 2009 2010F 2011F2012F?0 -56 -71 -69 -340 ?%?0 0 3263 6162 7912 ?74.7%48.6% 37.3% 37.5%48.2%?0 0 -5568 -7311 -18509 ?92.9%28.1% 35.6% 47.7%57.6%?-994 -3524 708 64 402 ?188.6%41.3% 27.3% 44.7%52.6%?5256 5307 9643 15175 14622 ?%?-21503 -3779 -30338 -37323 -22
105、636 ?26.2%22.5% 21.4% 21.5%22.3%?0 0 0 0 0 EBIT Margin 20.1%18.6% 16.0% 16.0%16.9%? EBITDA Margin 20.1%18.6% 20.4% 22.1%22.1%?11157 -9471 7 0 0 ?17.2%16.3% 15.1% 15.9%16.4%?-10346 -13250 -30331 -37323 -22636 ?%?34629 0 93800 0 0 ?36.5%24.1% 8.1% 10.7%14.4%?4900 2300 -17700 0 9999 ?13.0%13.6% 7.4% 9.
106、6%12.3%?0 0 -2649 -3372 -4878 ?%?-29062 5391 -581 -64 -381 ?61.1%43.6% 8.9% 10.5%15.1%?10467 7691 72869 -3436 4740 ?0.0%0.6% 0.6% 0.4%1.4%?5376 -251 52181 -25583 -3274 ?0.0%0.0% 30.0% 30.0%30.0%?000876? ? ?2009 ? 1300 ? 10%? 8 ? 750-800 ? 2010 ? 1400 ?150 ? 500 ? 95? 3 ?611.52856.41329.2020040060080
107、0100012001400200720082009? 96? 3 ?88.89140.14144.29020406080100120140160200720082009? 3-5 ? 15-20%? 2010 ? 9 ?2008 ?2009? 291 ?316 ? 2009 ? 1010 ?2.16 ?125 ? ? ? 3-5 ? 15-20%? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?60? 11 ?2009 ? ? 600 ? 60%?2008?2009 ?51%? ? 5 ? 100 ?2010 ? 24 ? 10/11/12 ? 8.3/17.4/17.4 ?10/11/12
108、? EPS0.76/1.01/1.30 ? ? 3 ? 24 ?002311? ? ? 2011 ? 10 ?2005-2009 ? 50%? 41%? 11%? 4%? 97?215455201020304050602001200620082009? 98?%?2.22%2.99%4.03%0.56%0.83%1.06%8.84%10.59%11.36%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%200620072008? 20%-30%? 40%? 10%? 700 ? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?61?+? 2010 ? 20%? ? ? ? 220?
109、09 ? 25%? 09 ? 2010 ? 5000 ? 100 ? 55%? 2011 ? 100-150 ? ? 1665 ? 125 ? 1500 ? 165 ? 32.15 ? 12 ? 10%?10%?40%?40%? 09 ?2010-2013 ? 09 ? 120%?144%?180%? 225%?2010-2013 ? 09 ? 125%?156%?195%? 244%?2010-2014 ? 1219 ?4657 ?3850 ?2955 ? 1181 ? 45.5 ? 2012 ? 09 ? 2010 ? 5 ?2010 ? 2010 ?10/11/12 ? EPS 0.67
110、/1.00/1.30 ? ? 2011/2012 ? ? 45.5 ?002447? ? ?42 ? 6 ? 90%?2009 ? 163 ? 61 ? 6200 ? 18.11%?8.71%? 0.78%? 99?2009 ?%?18%2%10%20%50%?42%3%28%7%20%? 100?%?44.48%52.17%52.15%25.14%36.90%39.43%31.88%32.30%25.77%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%200720082009? 2011 ? 2010 ? 12 ? 15 ?62? ? 5 ? ? ? 2007 ? 42?2009 ? 163 18
111、.11% ? 61 8.71% ? 6,200 0.78% ? 32 3.56% ? 15 2.14% ? 2,500 0.31% ? 26 2.89% ? 14 2.00% ? 2,500 0.31% ? 22 2.44% ? 10 1.43% ? 1,000 0.13% ? 20 2.22% ? 9 1.29% ? 2003 ? 2 ?2010 ? 6 ? 130? 60 ? 5 ? 2011 ? 12 ? 12 ? 4? 1.1 ? ? 250 ? 120 ? 15 ? 20%? 4 ? 2012 ? 3 ? 10/11/12 ? ESP 0.85/1.00/2.10?600598? ?
112、 2010 ? 5974.61 ? 3.36%?1? 2? ?/?(?)?(1)?(2)?/?/? 2010 ? 300 ? 20%? 300 ? 5%?20%? 300 ?-10%?5%? 300 ? 10%? 300 ? 10%?300 ?-10%?10%?1.? ? ? 6 ? 6 ? 300 ?2. ? 6 ? 300 ? 300 ? 10%? ?:?6 ?(100004)? 1568? 22 ?200122? 7088 ? A ?518040? 1 ? 26 ?(010)84588720(021)68761565 (0755)83196279 (852)22376409 ?(010)84868307(021)68761669 (0755)82485240 (852)21046580 ? (010)84868367Email:.hk?http:/http:/.hk http:/
