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1、Top picksBuyBuyDeutsche BankMarkets ResearchNorth AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPeriodicalChemicalsScorecardDate8 November 2012David Begleiter, CFAOctober ScorecardM&A stocks outperform in October.In October companies within the Chemicals sector fell 2%, in line with the S&P500.
2、Outperformance was led by names involved in M&A activities includingEcolab (ECL; Buy; +7%) with its purchase of Champion Technologies(strengthening the companys fast growing energy Services business), Cytec(CYT; Buy; +5%) with its Coating Resins divesture and associated $600MMshare buyback and Eastm
3、an Chemical (EMN; Buy; 4%) with its smoothintegration of recently acquired specialty chemicals company Solutia.TiO2 and Fertilizer stocks lagged.For companies levered to TiO2, 2H12 is proving to be challenging as TiO2fundamentals have continued to deteriorate with prices down 5%, 14% and20% from the
4、ir peaks in North America, Europe and Asia, respectively. Priceweakness and elevated inventory levels are causing customers to deferpurchases. Notable underperformers for the month with exposure to TiO2 areResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst( ) 212 250-Jermaine BrownRese
5、arch Associate(+1) 212 250-3624jermaine-Ashland (ASH.N),USD72.23LyondellBasell (LYB.N),USD52.78DuPont (DD; Buy; -11%) and Kronos (KRO; Hold; at-11%).Companies levered to potash experienced weakening fundamentals asunabsorbed supply, stemming from unsettled contracts in China and India,created an ove
6、rsupply in North American potash (39% above the 5-year avg).Notable underperformers with exposure to potash are Mosaic (MOS; Hold; -9%) and PotashCorp (POT; Hold; -7%).IRS ruling and MLP implications for olefin producers.Other notable performers for October were companies that stood to gain froma re
7、cent IRS ruling which allows olefin-related income to qualify for MLPtreatment including Westlake (WLK; Hold; +4%), LyondellBasell (LYB; Buy;+3%) and Dow Chemical (DOW; Hold; +1%). A private letter ruling (PLR),requested by Williams Companies (WMB; NR) concluded that “income derivedfrom processing N
8、GLs into olefins will constitute qualifying income” for MLPpurposes. While this ruling may be beneficial to some commodity names, eachPLR is company specific and, even if qualified, the asset may not necessarilybe suitable for MLP status. However with the opportunity now available to putolefin-produ
9、cing assets into MLPs, this is a potential EPS tailwind in 13E.Absolute valuations look reasonable, but macro weakness may limit upsideTodays 12x fwd P/E multiple for US Chemicals (ex-ag) is 19% below the 15-yravg. While we view relative valuation (currently 14% below the S&P 500 vs. a15-yr avg. dis
10、count of 14%) as warranted given structurally low feedstockcosts (ethane down 61% YTD), we view further multiple expansion as unlikelyuntil fears of Eurozone contagion and slowing global GDP growth subside.Valuation & forecastsWe value companies in the chemicals sector based on: 1) forward P/Emultip
11、les (vs. historical ranges and the market); 2) forward EV/EBITDAmultiples (where leverage diverges from that of peers, also vs historicalaverages); 3) our calculation of cash return on cash invested and the strongcorrelation (R270%) we have found between chemical sector valuations andreturns on capi
12、tal. Risks to forecasts include rises in energy, raw materials, n-tinterest rates or sharp improvement in end-market demand (see p. 73-75)._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local ex
13、changes via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the ob
14、jectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardTable Of ContentsStock performance. 3C
15、urrent valuations. 6Forward company valuations. 15Growth & profitability . 29Leverage, liquidity & capital . 49Valuation & Risks . 73Page2Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.WLK21%ECLCMPCYTALBWLK EMNLYBPXAGUPPGDOWHUNCEVALFULASHROCChemicalsS&P500CBTGGCFMC(0%)(1%)(1%)(2%)(2%)(2%)(2%)(2%)(3%)SHWOLNMONRPMAPDPO
16、TMOSKRODDFOE(23%)(4%)(5%)(5%)(6%)(6%)(7%)(9%)(11%)(11%)3%2%2% 2%1%1%0%4%4%5%5%6%7%ARG8%28%LYB20%14%13%12%12%11%10%8%8%7% 6%5% 4%3% 3%3% 3%2%1% 1%1%0%(2%)(3%)(5%)(8%)HUN EMN ARGCYT VALAGU CMP GGCPPGECLSHWROCFULOLNChemicalsDOWPXS&P500RPM ASHMONCEFMC APDALB CBTPOT(8%)MOS(9%)DD(10%)FOE(14%)KRO(20%)8 Nov
17、ember 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardStock performanceFigure 1: Ranking by October performance15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)(20%)(25%)(30%)Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset; include dividendsFigure 2: Ranking by 3-month performance (August, 2012- October, 2012)40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)Source:
18、Deutsche Bank, Factset; include dividendsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page3GGC97%LYBAGU WLKSHW MONPPGEMN VALECLASH CYT HUN CMP RPMS&P500OLNGGC MOSChemicalsARG FMC POTFULPXAPDDOWALBDDROCCBTCEKROFOE(43%)(49%)(0%)(2%)(3%)(4%)(7%) (7%)(8%)(12%)(15%) (15%) (16%) (16%)(21%)14%12%11%10%10%9% 9%8%4%2%1% 1%0
19、% 0%19%19%21%30%LYB86%75%63%55%54%43%39%37%36%32%31%31%29%26%23%21%20%14%13%9%7% 6%5%1%(4%)(7%)(9%)(12%)(14%)93%WLKSHWVALCYT EMNFULPPGFMC ASH HUN ARGECLAGUChemicalsRPM CBTMONOLNS&P500DOWPXCMPALBROCDDAPDMOSCEPOTKRO(38%)FOE(59%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 3: Ranking by
20、6-month performance (May, 2012- October, 2012)50%30%10%(10%)(30%)(50%)(70%)Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset; includes dividendsFigure 4: Ranking by 12-month performance120%100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)(100%)Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset; includes dividendsPage4Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Ja
21、n-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11AGULYBALBARGVALCYTASHAPDOLNCEGGCDOWMOSROCSHWWLKCMPFMCHUNEMNPPGFOECBTECLFULDDJan-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 5: Chemicals sector index 10-year performance (January 1999-Present)30025020015010
22、050S&P Chems IndexXLB Materials Select Sector SPDRS&P 500DB U.S. Chemicals Universe IndexSource: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: S&P Chems Index includes: APD, ASH, DD, DOW, ECL, EMN, HPC, IFF, MON, PPG, PX, ROH, SIAL (as of Oct 2006). DB U.S. Chemicals Universe includes 45 chemical names covered by tea
23、m and selected ascomps contact team for further detailsFigure 6: Chemicals short interest as of days volume and % of float25%161420%1215%10%108645%20%Source: Factset First Call estimatezsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Days Short Interest (RHS)% of Float (LHS)-Page512.912.511.711.5 11.510.5 10.410.1 10
24、.0SHWCYTECLMONCMPSHWARGPXVALWLKDOWFMCPPG RPMAPDFULFOEDDGGCALBROCMOSPOT14.614.214.113.612.912.612.211.8 11.711.511.2CBTOLN11.1EMNASHLYBCEHUNKRO7.16.211.010.610.310.114.715.415.716.517.119.121.722.123.023.223.325.5CMPECLPXMON ARGVALFMCCYT9.38.88.7 8.78.4 8.48.28.18.17.6 7.67.36.96.86.36.26.15.85.5 5.5
25、4.84.5PPGFULRPMAGUDDAPDCBTPOTALBEMNDOWWLK ROCCEASHMOSOLNFOEGGCLYBHUNKRO8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardCurrent valuationsFigure 7: Ranking by 2012E P/E302520151050Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 8: Ranking by 2012E EV/EBITDA141210864
26、20Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage6Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.20.019.6 19.618.417.116.315.615.314.213.813.4 13.413.212.512.211.911.711.1 11.110.39.89.79.59.49.19.08.97.47.2HUNARGVALCYTAPDALBASHOLNLYBWLKMONGGCCMPFMCCEDOWRPMMOSROCEMNSHWAGUSHWMONPPGPX10.910.
27、610.6 10.610.49.89.69.69.59.39.18.37.87.77.67.47.47.26.96.56.46.36.16.05.95.1KROPPG5.04.94.3FOEDDPXFULPOTCBTECL5.8VALASHALBROCCYTLYBARGWLKCMPFMCKROAPDOLNPOTDOWRPMMOSEMNHUNFOEDDCBTECLFULCE4.28 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 9: Ranking by 2013E P/E222018161412108642Source: D
28、eutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information; based on month-end share priceFigure 10: Ranking by 2013E EV/EBITDA12111098765432Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information; based on month-end share priceDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page710.9%10.5%10.4%9.4
29、%9.1%7.1%7.0%6.7%6.3%5.5%5.4%5.2%5.0%4.9%4.8%4.7%4.6%4.5%3.7%3.4%2.5%2.4%2.1%1.6%1.4%1.4%1.0%(0.3%)LYBALBVALASHAPDGGCARGMONWLKCMPCYTCEHUNRPMFMCDOWMOSROCEMNKROSHW31.4%23.0%18.8%17.6%14.7% 14.6%13.9%13.7%PPG13.3%12.0% 11.9%10.4%11.2%9.7%8.4%8.0%8.0%7.6%7.2%7.1%7.1%6.9%6.7%5.1%4.9%4.8%4.0%3.2%CMPOLN-2.
30、2%ASHVALFOELYBDDALBROCKROSHW ARGCYTCBTAPDCEPOTDOWMONWLKRPMFMCHUNPPGMOSEMNFULECLPXFOEDDPOTCBTECLFULPX(3.4%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 11: Ranking by 2012E free cash flow yield (defined as free cash flow per share divided by share price)12%10%8%6%4%2%0%(2%)(4%)(6%)(8%)
31、Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information. Based on month end share price.Figure 12: Ranking by 2012E free cash flow yield II (defined as EBITDA-capex divided by share price)35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informa
32、tion. Based on month end share pricePage8Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.DDARGSHWCMPMONFMCPPGPX5.58.55.44.74.64.14.03.93.83.53.43.43.43.02.72.52.52.42.32.12.01.91.81.71.61.41.41.41.4VALASHALBLYBROCAPDCYTOLNGGCWLK7.8%4.5%4.4%3.9%3.8%3.4%3.1%2.7%2.5% 2.5%2.2%2.2% 2.2%2.0%1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%1.2%1.2%1.1% 1
33、.1%0.8%DOWRPMMOSEMN0.8%0.7%KROHUN0.6%CELYBALB VALARGMONASHOLNAPDCMPCYTDOWRPMHUNFMCDDPXSHWMOSROCKROCBT CBTPPGPOTECLFUL0.5%FOEPOTCBTCEECLFUL0.48 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 13: Ranking by 2012E price/book9876543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and compan
34、y information. Based on month end share priceFigure 14: Ranking by 2012E dividend yield9%8%8%7%7%6%6%5%5%4%4%3%3%2%2%1%1%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information; based on month end share priceDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page94.23.53.32.82.22.22.22.21.91.91.61.61.81
35、.51.51.41.31.31.31.11.11.11.00.90.90.90.60.7VALASHALBARGROCSHWMONWLKCMPKROCYT APDFMCOLNLYBPOT25.7%22.6%11.6%12.6%10.6%9.9%9.6%9.2%9.2%8.0%7.4%7.3%6.6%6.6%7.8%5.9%5.9%5.7%5.3%5.1%4.9%3.7%DOWMOSRPMEMN3.6%2.0%PX3.6%HUNPPGASHFOEDDLYBROCALBKROARGCBTOLNSHWGGCDOWMOSWLKHUNRPMEMNFMCAPDPOTCEPPGFULECL0.9%FOEPX
36、ECLDDCBTCEFUL0.38 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 15: Ranking by 2012E EV/Sales543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 16: Ranking by 2013E free cash flow yield (defined as free cash flow per share divided by share price)30%25%20%
37、15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage10Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.34.8%31.5%20.7%30.6%19.6%17.6%17.3%15.5%15.3%16.7%13.2% 13.1%11.1% 11.1%10.9%10.6% 10.6%10.3%12.4%9.6%9.3%8.5%8.4%8.4%7.0%6.3%6.0%7.1%5.4%APDFOE0.4ALBLYBASHVALOLNGGCARGWLKMONCYTCEDOWMO
38、SCMPFOERPMFMCHUNDDEMNFULROCKROCBT5.15.04.77.34.53.83.63.33.63.22.82.82.42.32.62.22.22.12.12.12.11.91.41.31.31.7SHWPOTPPGECL1.31.2VALASHDDARGSHWCMPMONFMCPPGPXLYBALBCYTROCGGCWLKDOWRPMMOSEMNKROOLNAPDPOTHUNCBTCEECLFUL1.2PX5.3%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 17: Ranking by 201
39、3E free cash flow yield II (defined as EBITDA-capex divided by share price)40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information. Based on month-end stock priceFigure 18: Ranking by 2013E price/book876543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates an
40、d company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page113.6KRODOWDDOLN RPMLYB APDROCPPG CMP HUNCBTPXMOSARG MONEMNALB VAL POT ASHSHWECL CYT FMCFULCE2.3%2.2%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.7%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.2% 1.1%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.6%3.1%3.0% 3.0%2.8%2.7%2.7%3.9% 3.9%3.6%4.3%4.5%POT3.43.12.62.22.22.02.01.81.71.61.51.41.3
41、1.31.31.21.21.11.11.00.90.90.90.80.80.8PXMONCMPAPD FMCECLARGALBMOSSHWCYTROCVAL PPGDDEMNCEWLKRPMASH OLNFUL CBTDOWKROLYBHUN0.6FOE0.38 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 19: Ranking by 2013E dividend yield5%5%4%4%3%3%2%2%1%1%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and c
42、ompany informationFigure 20: Ranking by 2013E EV/Sales43210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage12Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.POT3.6MONPOTMONPXCMPMOSFMCCYTALBECLAPDSHWARGWLKVALPPGDDEMNROCCERPMOLN1.71.51.51.31.31.21.11.11.11.00.90.8FUL0.8KROCBTASHLYBDOWGGCHUNFOE
43、0.40.30.10.80.70.70.70.61.81.81.92.02.12.52.93.44.03.22.72.32.02.01.81.61.51.51.41.41.21.21.21.11.01.00.90.90.80.80.70.70.70.6PXCMPMOSFMCALBAPDSHWECLARGCYTVALWLKPPGDDEMNROCCERPMOLNLYBKROFULASHCBTDOW0.6GGC0.4HUN0.3FOE0.18 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 21: Ranking by 2012E
44、Price/sales543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 22: Ranking by 2013E Price/sales43210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page13POTHUN RPM POTMONOLN FMC MOS GGC PPGEMN ROC SHWASHKROVALLYBAPD
45、ECLDDCEALBCMP ARGDOWPXWLKCBTFULFOECYT(0.4%)(0.7%)7.6%7.5%7.3%7.2% 7.2%6.9%6.5% 6.4%5.9%5.4%5.2%4.7%4.0%3.2%3.0%2.8%1.9%1.7%1.1%7.6%8.4%9.6%9.6%9.9%17.9%18.2%18.9%21.4%26.4%25.0%16.8%15.4%14.8%13.2%11.0%9.0% 8.9%8.5%8.0%7.5%7.3%6.7% 6.6%6.5%5.9%5.6%5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%4.7%4.4% 4.2% 3.8%3.0%2.2%1.5%MOS
46、HUN OLNRPM MON ARGALBEMN KROLYBDDFULVALPPGFMC CMP ROCECLCE PXASHSHWGGC WLKDOWFOECBTAPDCYT(2.1%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 23: Ranking by 2012E free cash flow/sales25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 24: Ra
47、nking by 2013E free cash flow/sales30%25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage14Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-0
48、8 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-1212108648 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardForward company valuationsFigure 25: DB U.S. Chemicals Universe P/E ratio, January (1991-Present)24300%Average NTM P/E22201815yr avg. = 14.7Oct-12 = 12.1250%200%Current: 12.13-year: 12.95-year: 12.91614150%10-ye
49、ar: 14.215yr avg. vs. S&P =85%Oct-12 = 94%100%50%0%Average Relative P/ECurrent: 94%3-year: 97%5-year: 96%10-year: 95%Chemicals NTM P/E vs. S&P 50015-year average NTM P/EChemicals NTM P/E15-year average NTM P/E vs. S&P 500Source: FirstCall Consensus, FactsetNote: NTM EPS based on FirstCall consensusF
50、igure 26: S&P 500 NTM consensus P/E (1991-Present)353025Average NTM P/ECurrent: 13.03-year: 13.25-year: 13.310-year: 15.020151020-year m edian=16.6590 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Source: Factset, I/B/E/SDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.NTM P/E (LHS)15-year av eragePa
51、ge15Dec-90Dec-91Dec-92Dec-93Dec-94 Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97 Dec-98Dec-99Dec-00Dec-01 Dec-02Dec-03Dec-04Dec-05 Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09 Dec-10Dec-112012E19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012E1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042
52、0052006200720082009201020118 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 27: Forward-looking components of share gains (% YoY): 1) P/E multipleexpansion, 2) earnings growth (1990-Present)120%100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)U.S. Chems NTM EPS est. (median % YoY)U.S. Chems NTM P/E Multi
53、ple (median % YoY)U.S. Chems Share Price Index (median % YoY)Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: NTM EPS based on FirstCall consensus, Share Price Index represents median %YoY of DB Chems UniverseFigure 28: Specialty Chemicals forward P/E history (1990-Present)20Median = 14.718161412108Source: Deuts
54、che Bank, FactsetNote: Median P/Es based on period-end price & FirstCall NTM EPS estimates. Current “E” value is based on latest dataFigure 29: Specialty Chemicals EV/EBITDA history (1990-Present)11Median = 8.51098765Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: Median P/Es based on period-end price & FirstCa
55、ll NTM EPS estimates. Current “E” value is based on latest dataPage16Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.1990199119921993199419951996199719901991199219931994199519961997199819992012E2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012E199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020118 November 2012C
56、hemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardA2q2Figure 30: Differentiated Chemicals forward P/E history (1990-Present)2523Median = 13.1211917151311975Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: Median P/Es based on period-end price & FirstCall NTM EPS estimates. Current “E” value is based on latest dataFigure 31:
57、Differentiated Chemicals EV/EBITDA history (1990-Present)1110Median = 7.99876543Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: Median P/Es based on period-end price & FirstCall NTM EPS estimates. Current “E” value is based on latest dataDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page17Aug-05Aug-06Aug-07Aug-08Aug-09Aug-10Aug
58、-11Aug-12Feb-06Feb-07Feb-08Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Feb-12Jan-12Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan
59、-10Jan-11Jan-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 32: Agrium next 12-month P/E and relative P/E20181614121086420NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 10.43-year: 10.85-year: 10.310-year: 11.5Average Relative P/ECurrent: 80%3-
60、year: 81%5-year: 76%10-year: 77%Source: FactsetFigure 33: Airgas next 12-month P/E and relative P/E403530252015105NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)220%180%140%100%60%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 17.33-year: 17.55-year: 16.210-year: 17.0Average Relative P/ECurrent: 134%3-year: 133%5-year: 122%10-y
61、ear: 115%Source: FactsetFigure 34: Air Products next 12-month P/E and relative P/E222018161412108Source: FactsetPage18NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)160%140%120%100%80%60%40%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 13.33-year: 14.15-year: 14.610-year: 16.1Average Relative P/ECurrent: 103%3-year: 107%5-year: 1
62、09%10-year: 108%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-9
63、5 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Jan-12Jan-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 35: Albemarle next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2420161284NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%
64、80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.13-year: 12.95-year: 12.810-year: 14.5Average Relative P/ECurrent: 86%3-year: 98%5-year: 95%10-year: 96%Source: FactsetFigure 36: Ashland next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)Source: FactsetFigure 37: Cabot next 12-month P/E and
65、relative P/E302520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)Source: FactsetDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.NTM P/E (LHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 9.33-year: 11.15-year: 11.010-year: 12.1Average Relative P/ECurrent: 72%3-year: 83%5-year: 82%10-ye
66、ar: 81%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 8.83-year: 11.95-year: 13.110-year: 14.8Average Relative P/ECurrent: 68%3-year: 89%5-year: 97%10-year: 99%Page19Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Apr-04Aug-04Dec-04Apr-05Aug-05De
67、c-05Apr-06Aug-06Dec-06Apr-07Aug-07Dec-07Apr-08Aug-08Dec-08Apr-09Aug-09Dec-09Apr-10Aug-10Dec-10Apr-11Aug-11Dec-11Apr-12Aug-12Jun-05Sep-05Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Se
68、p-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 38: Celanese next 12-month P/E and relative P/E1614121086420NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 8.93-year: 9.75-year: 9.810-year: 9.5Average Relative P/ECurrent: 69%3-year: 73%5-year: 73
69、%10-year: 67%Source: FactsetFigure 39: Compass Minerals next 12-month P/E and relative P/E1917151311975NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%130%120%110%100%90%80%70%60%50%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 16.73-year: 14.05-year: 13.110-year: 14.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 129%3-year: 107%5-year: 99%10-
70、year: 99%Source: FactsetFigure 40: Cytec next 12-month P/E and relative P/E30272421181512963NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 15.23-year: 14.85-year: 13.810-year: 14.1Average Relative P/ECurrent: 117%3-year: 112%5-year: 103%10-year: 94%Source:
71、FactsetPage20Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-95
72、Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Jan-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 41: Dow Chemical next 12-month P/E and relative P/E35302520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)Source: FactsetFigure 42:
73、Dupont next 12-month P/E and relative P/E3530252015105NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)NTM P/E (LHS)250%200%150%100%50%0%140%120%100%80%60%40%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 12.13-year: 12.85-year: 13.510-year: 13.6Average Relative P/ECurrent: 93%3-year: 96%5-year: 100%10-year: 90%Average NTM P/ECurren
74、t: 12.23-year: 12.75-year: 12.810-year: 14.7Average Relative P/ECurrent: 94%3-year: 96%5-year: 96%10-year: 98%Source: FactsetFigure 43: Eastman next 12-month P/E and relative P/E35140%302520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)Source: FactsetDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.NTM P/E (LHS)110%80%50%20%Average N
75、TM P/ECurrent: 9.73-year: 10.55-year: 11.110-year: 12.6Average Relative P/ECurrent: 75%3-year: 79%5-year: 82%10-year: 84%Page21Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02
76、 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-12Jan-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 44: Ecolab next 12-month P/E and
77、relative P/E3532292623201714118NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)Source: FactsetFigure 45: Ferro next 12-month P/E and relative P/E80706050403020100NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)Source: FactsetFigure 46: FMC next 12-month P/E and relative P/E20181614121086420NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500Source: FactsetPage22NTM P/E (LHS)NT
78、M P/E (LHS)NTM P/E200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%500%450%400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 20.03-year: 19.55-year: 20.010-year: 22.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 155%3-year: 148%5-year: 151%10-year: 150%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.13-year: 10.95-year
79、: 15.010-year: 16.2Average Relative P/ECurrent: 85%3-year: 82%5-year: 109%10-year: 107%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.13-year: 10.95-year: 15.010-year: 16.2Average Relative P/ECurrent: 106%3-year: 101%5-year: 95%10-year: 84%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Oct-11Apr-11Nov-11Dec-11Apr-12Oct-12Aug-11Aug-12May
80、-11Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08May-12Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Nov-12Sep-11Sep-12Jan-11Jun-11Jan-12Jun-12Jul-11Feb-11Mar-11Feb-12Mar-12Jul-12Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Sep-05Sep-06Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-1
81、1Sep-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 47: GGC next 12-month P/E and relative P/E302520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 9.03-year: 18.25-year: 64.610-year: 34.8Average Relative P/ECurrent: 69%3-year:140%5-year:
82、460%10-year: 236%Source: FactsetFigure 48: H.B. Fuller next 12-month P/E and relative P/E26221814106NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.83-year: 12.15-year: 12.110-year: 14.0Average Relative P/ECurrent: 91%3-year: 91%5-year: 91%10-year: 93%Source:
83、 FactsetFigure 49: Huntsman next 12-month P/E and relative P/E180160140120100806040200NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500Source: FactsetDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.NTM P/E1200%1000%800%600%400%200%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent 7.23-year: 20.55-year: 26.910-year: 21.0Average Relative P/ECurrent: 55%3-year: 145%5-year: 1
84、93%10-year: 148%Page23Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Sep-04Sep-05Sep-06Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Mar-12Sep-12Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11Jun-05Jun-06Jun-07Jun-08Jun-09Jun-10Jun-11Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11No
85、v-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Jun-12Jun-048 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 50: Kronos next 12-month P/E and relative P/E302520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)700%600%500%400%300%200%100%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 7.8
86、3-year: 12.65-year: 10.610-year: 13.8Average Relative P/ECurrent: 61%3-year: 94%5-year: 79%10-year: 92%Source: FactsetFigure 51: Lyondell Basell next 12-month P/E and relative P/E14121086420NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 9.5Average Relative P/ECurr
87、ent: 73%Source: FactsetFigure 52: Monsanto next 12-month P/E and relative P/E45403530252015105Source: FactsetPage24NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 19.23-year: 20.25-year: 21.710-year: 22.5Average Relative P/ECurrent:148%3-year: 153%5-year: 163%1
88、0-year: 152%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Oct-05Jan-06Apr-06Jul-06Oct-06Jan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04J
89、an-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Aug-99Feb-00Aug-00Feb-01Aug-01Feb-02Aug-02Feb-03Aug-03Feb-04Aug-04Feb-05Aug-05Feb-06Aug-06Feb-07Aug-07Feb-08Aug-08Feb-09Aug-09Feb-10Aug-10Feb-11Aug-11Feb-12Aug-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 53: Mosaic next 12-month P/E an
90、d relative P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)200%160%120%80%40%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 10.73-year: 13.15-year: 12.110-year: 17.6Average Relative P/ECurrent: 82%3-year: 98%5-year: 89%10-year: 114%Source: FactsetFigure 54: Olin Corp. next 12-month P/E and relative P/E6050403020100NT
91、M P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 9.83-year: 8.65-year: 9.110-year: 13.7Average Relative P/ECurrent: 76%3-year: 107%5-year: 100%10-year: 93%Source: FactsetFigure 55: Potash Corp next 12-month P/E and relative P/E4035302520151050Source: FactsetNTM P/E Vs. S&
92、P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)220%180%140%100%60%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 12.13-year: 15.05-year: 14.410-year: 17.6Average Relative P/ECurrent: 93%3-year: 113%5-year: 107%10-year: 116%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page25Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04J
93、an-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-12Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10D
94、ec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 56: PPG Industries next 12-month P/E and relative P/E22191613107NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 14.93-year: 13.65-year: 13.310-year: 13.6Average
95、Relative P/ECurrent: 115%3-year: 103%5-year: 99%10-year: 92%Source: FactsetFigure 57: Praxair next 12-month P/E and relative P/E22201816141210NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)170%150%130%110%90%70%50%30%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 17.43-year: 17.45-year: 17.610-year: 17.8Average Relative P/ECurrent
96、: 134%3-year: 132%5-year: 132%10-year: 121%Source: FactsetFigure 58: Rockwood Holdings next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2824201612840Source: FactsetPage26NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)170%140%110%80%50%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 12.03-year: 14.25-year: 14.010-year: 14.1Average Relative P/EC
97、urrent: 93%3-year: 106%5-year: 103%10-year: 100%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Feb-05Feb-06Feb-07Feb-08Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11Aug-05Aug-06Aug-07Aug-08Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Feb-12J
98、an-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Aug-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 59: RPM International next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E140%120%100
99、%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 12.03-year: 14.25-year: 12.510-year: 12.5Average Relative P/ECurrent: 108%3-year: 104%5-year: 94%10-year: 85%Source: FactsetFigure 60: Sherwin-Williams next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)170%150%130%110%90%70%50%Av
100、erage NTM P/ECurrent: 12.03-year: 14.25-year: 14.910-year: 14.1Average Relative P/ECurrent: 145%3-year: 123%5-year: 113%10-year: 97%Source: FactsetFigure 61: Valspar next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2522191613107Source: FactsetNTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E140%120%100%80%60%40%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 1
101、4.93-year: 13.45-year: 13.110-year: 14.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 115%3-year: 102%5-year: 99%10-year: 96%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page27Nov-04Feb-05May-05Aug-05Nov-05Feb-06May-06Aug-06Nov-06Feb-07May-07Aug-07Nov-07Feb-08May-08Aug-08Nov-08Feb-09May-09Aug-09Nov-09Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11M
102、ay-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 62: Westlake next 12-month P/E and relative P/E706050403020100Source: FactsetPage28NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 13.73-year: 15.55-year: 19.
103、810-year: 15.7Average Relative P/ECurrent: 105%3-year: 115%5-year: 147%10-year: 112%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.121%32%31%30%30%22%21%19%18%15%14%14%(1%) (1%)(4%)(8%)(9%)(11%)(19%)(14%)(26%)(33%)(35%) (42%)(47%)(54%)(66%)(71%)ASHVALLYBROCALBARGCYTSHWGGCWLKMONKROAPDOLNDOW172%94%93%85%69%52%37%27%26%
104、18%15%15%12%12%7%5%2% 1% 1%(6%)(13%) (14%) (14%)(41%)(89%) (89%)KRO(46%)(29%)MOSEMNCMPFMCHUNPPGFOECBTPOTECLFULDDCEPX(78%)LYBVALALBARGOLNWLK ASHMONCMPAPDCYTCEDOWFMCHUN RPMMOSEMNSHWROCPPGFOEPXCBTECLPOTFULDD(158%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardGrowth & profitabilityFigure 63: Rank
105、ing by September (act.). 2012 EPS change150%125%100%75%50%25%0%(25%)(50%)(75%)(100%)(125%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information.Figure 64: Ranking by EPS (YoY) Qtr. 2011 EPS change200%150%100%50%0%(50%)(100%)(150%)(200%)(250%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. es
106、timates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page2988%69%33%27%23%23%21%27%20%19%16%13%13%12%12%3% 3%0%(0%)(3%)(5%) (6%)(16%)(12%)(23%)(26%) (27%) (27%)(40%)(4%)PPGASHVALLYBROCALBCYTARGSHWGGCWLKMONCMPKROOLNAPDHUN133%42%80%29%26%25%21%20%20%19%16%16%15%14%12%12%12%11%11%11%11%10%10%7%6
107、%5%(1%)ASHVALARGSHWGGCWLKMONROCCMPDOWRPMMOSEMNKRO(16%)FOELYBCYTOLNALBCBTFMCAPDPOTDDCEHUNFULECLPX(1%)DOWRPMMOSEMNFMCPPGFOECBTDDPOTECLFULCEPX(73%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 65: Ranking by 2012E EPS change100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)(100%)Source: Deutsche Bank
108、 Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 66: Ranking by 2013E EPS change160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage30Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.CMP25.2%25.1%DDPOTLYBDOWMON MOSPXPPGAPD ECLEMNSHW$664$598$536$516$
109、478$405$321ROCVALWLK KRO RPM$313 $310 $306$250 $241CBTOLN CYT CMP$205$150$127 $115FULGGCFOE$109$97$17$804$890$1,169$1,234$1,684$1,956$2,000$2,190$3,250$3,069$2,999POT22.4%19.1%16.4%15.9% 15.9%14.9%12.3%11.9%11.7%CEASH HUN FMCMOS MMMALBCEAGUECLDOWDDEMN11.2%11.0%10.4%10.0%9.7% 9.6%9.2% 9.2% 9.2%9.0%8.
110、5%7.4%7.2%ALBARGAPDPXMONWLKFULASH ROC ARGVAL CBT FOE PPG CYT8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 67: Ranking by 2012E net income ($ in millions)$3,500$3,000$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,000$500$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 68: Ranking b
111、y 2012E ROIC28%24%20%16%12%8%4%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page31CMPPOTDDLYBDOWMON MOSPXAPDPPGECL$1,088$978$800$674$604$548$509$445$366ARG$359VALROCRPM CBT$344$308$267$257KROCYTOLNCMPFUL$209$200$171$163$132GGCFOE$125$39$1,092$
112、1,247$1,869$2,006$2,313$2,780$3,294$3,398$3,42127.1%24.8%15.8%15.6%14.3%14.1%13.9%13.6%13.2%EMNSHWCEASHPOT ECL ALBPXCEMOSAPD EMN12.4%11.8%11.4%FMC HUNALBWLKDOWDDPPG11.3%10.2%10.1%10.0%9.5% 9.5% 9.5%9.2% 9.1%8.3%8.0%6.5%MONROC ASH FULARGCBTAGUFOE VALWLKCYT LYB8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemica
113、ls ScorecardFigure 69: Ranking by 2013E net income ($ in millions)$4,000$3,500$3,000$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,000$500$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 70: Ranking by 2013E ROIC32%28%24%20%16%12%8%4%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company
114、 informationPage32Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.4105904803703503501801201201509090200(40)(80)AGUDDCYTARGCEPOTDOWMONCMPEMNECL FUL(50)(130)(150)PPG(200)WLK ROC650390330240190160100909080706050303010(10) (10)(165)(174)(70)(640)MONDOWAGULYBCYTASHARGVALAPDALBWLKCMPFOECEMOSPXEMNROCCBTPPGECLFULDD(850)APD(20
115、0)VAL FOELYBCBTPX8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 71: Ranking by 2012E change in ROIC (bps)7006005004003002001000(100)(200)(300)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 72: Ranking by 2013E change in ROIC (bps)8006004002000(200)(400)(60
116、0)(800)(1,000)(1,200)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page33SHWSHWCEEMNDDPPGFMCPOTPXLYBALBCMP KROVALHUN ROCARGAPDMONRPMMOS GGC WLKFULECLOLNASHCBTDOWCYTFOE3%9%7%32%31%31%29%29%27%24%23%23%22%21%20%18%18%17%17%16%16%15%14%14%14%13%13%3
117、2%34%36%31%31%31%29%29%28%28%26%26%25%21%19%18%17%39%DDPPGCE PXEMN FMCCMPLYBARGPOTVALALBMONROCAPD17%KRO17%RPM17%ECL16%HUN16%GGC16%FUL16%MOS15%WLK15%OLN15%CYT15%CBT14%ASH13%DOW11%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 73: Ranking by 2012E ROE40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Se
118、curities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 74: Ranking by 2013E ROE42%39%36%33%30%27%24%21%18%15%12%9%6%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage34Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.ASH87%DOWDDLYBPOTMON MOSPXPPGAPDECLEMNSHWHUN ASHCEFMC ARGALBWLK ROCVALRPM KROCB
119、TOLNCYTGGCFULCMPFOE$944$938$898$733$578$572$532$526$515$429$373$324$256$218$205$170$170$54$1,031$1,326$1,525$1,668$1,980$2,489$2,644$3,182$4,494$4,575$4,675$4,720ECL57%31%29%29%24%23%19%18%16%12%11%11%11%10%3%1% 1%(1%)(5%)(7%)(8%)(11%)(14%)68%GGC EMN SHW MONVALHUNFULWLK FMC OLNARGPPGLYBRPMCBTPXPOTMO
120、SALBAPDDDROCDOWCE(16%)CMP(22%)CYT(24%)KRO(32%)FOE(55%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 75: Ranking by 2012E operating profit ($ in millions)$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 76: Ranking by 20
121、12E change in operating profit100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page35$5,455$4,996$4,931$4,887$3,544$2,749$2,718$1,916$1,820$1,783$1,208$1,622$1,008$986$948$812$642$626$626$553$549$416$400$336$322
122、$294$471$241$207FULALBLYBVALARGAPDASHCYTGGCWLKOLNCEDOWMONCMPFMCHUNMOSROCRPMEMN95%61%48%42%28%26%22%21%18% 17%16%15%11%SHW11% 11% 11% 10%10% 10%9% 9%8% 7%7%5%5%3%KROPPG0%(10%)ASH VALFOEALBLYBARGROCCYTCBTDDSHWGGCWLKCMPMONDOWRPMMOSEMNKROOLNFMCAPDPOTCEHUN PPGECLFULPX(10%)FOEDDPXPOTCBTECL$878 November 20
123、12Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 77: Ranking by 2013E operating profit ($ in millions)$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 78: Ranking by 2013E change in operating profit110%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
124、(10%)(20%)(30%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage36Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.50%24%24%22%21%19%19%17%16%16%14%14%13%13%13%15%13%13%12%12%11%11%10%10%10%9%8%6%8%VALASHALBROCCYTDDAPDKROCEMONWLKPOTCMPFMCPPGMOSPXEMNECLLYBARGOLNSHW370330260220210200190170150140
125、1107050403010100(40) (40)(80) (80) (80)(60)(110)(180)(270)DOW(300)MOS CMPASHVALLYBALBSHWARGROCCYTAPDOLNGGCWLKMONFMCHUNDOWRPMPPGEMNFOECBTDDPOTFULECLCEPX(380)GGCRPMHUNFOECBTFUL3%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 79: Ranking by 2012E operating margin60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source:
126、 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 80: Ranking by 2012E change in operating margin (bps)5004003002001000(100)(200)(300)(400)(500)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page3725%24%51%23%22%21%20%18%17%15
127、%15%15%14%16%14%13%13%12%12%12%12%12%12%11%11%10%9% 9%8%(60)KRO(300)PPGVALASHALBROCCYTLYBKROARGSHWAPDWLKOLNMONGGCCMP FMC490320260210150110 110100 10090908070707070606060504640303020(20) (30)LYBCYTALBASHARGGGCMONWLKCMPFMCVALAPDOLNFOECEDOWRPMMOSEMNHUNDDPXSHWROCFULCBTECLPOT(60)DOWMOSRPMEMNHUNPPGFOEDDPO
128、TCBTCEPXECLFUL4%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 81: Ranking by 2013E operating margin60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 82: Ranking by 2013E change in operating margin (bps)6005004003002001000(100)(200)(300)(4
129、00)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage38Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.POTMON ARGECLSHWPXRPMROCPPG CYTALBVALFMCAPDASHDDMOSKROEMNFULCMPCBTCEFOEWLKOLNDOWHUNLYBGGC25%24%22%20% 20%20%18%15%11%41%40%40%38%37%35% 35%34%33%32%32%30% 30%29%41%43%44%52%54%57%60%CYT2,1331
130、,5161,224994899748574385 378354248 240214127 123543924,368LYBGGCEMNHUNASHWLKVALDOWOLNPPGSHWFMCCBTDD PXALBMONRPMPOT(38)ARG(135)APD(200)FOE(254)ROC(386)FUL(470)ECL(586)CE(691)MOS(958)CMP(1,354)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 83: Ranking by 2012E gross margin70%60%50%40%30%2
131、0%10%0%Source: Deutsche BankFigure 84: Ranking by 2012E change in gross margin (bps)5,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000(1,000)(2,000)(3,000)Source: Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page39CMP1,9111,238896SHWPXRPMPPGALBROCFMCAPDCYTVALCMPDDASHMOSFULEMNKROCBTGGCCEFOE43.7%41.9%39.4% 39.4%38.6%36.5%35.8%3
132、5.5%35.0% 34.9%34.5%33.4%30.6% 30.5%28.0%26.3%24.6%24.1%23.1%OLN23.0%WLKDOWHUNLYB20.7%20.1%18.4%17.5%44.1%47.1%ECL53.1%ARG56.0%MON56.9%1,957POT60.8%LYBOLNFMC752701596565469448379334307271240222200 186 18212610983533315SHWRPMFOECBTALBDDPPGARGAPDMOSFULPXHUNECLEMNCEWLK POTDOWMON ASHVAL(295)ROC(341)CYT(
133、1,014)KRO(1,224)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 85: Ranking by 2013E gross margin70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche BankFigure 86: Ranking by 2013E change in gross margin (bps)2,5002,0001,5001,0005000(500)(1,000)(1,500)(2,000)Source: Deutsche BankPage40Deutsche Bank
134、Securities Inc.ECL65%31%26%24%23%22%18%14%14%71%DOWDDLYBPOTMONPXMOSAPD PPGECLEMN HUN ASHCESHWFMC ARG ROCALBWLK GRAVALRPMCBTCHMTKRO CYT OLNGGC CMPFULFOE$864 $853$789$672 $667 $636 $605$503$474 $439 $422$368 $364$295$236 $225$111$1,218$1,201$1,368$1,373$1,691$2,235$2,445$2,508$3,152$3,489$3,804$5,090$
135、5,532$6,275$7,420ASH EMN GGC SHW MONFULVALWLK14%13%11%11%9% 9%9%3% 3%1%1%(1%)(4%)(6%) (6%)(8%)CHMTFMC HUN ARGOLN RPMLYBPPGCBT POTMOSPXGRAALB APDDDROCDOW(12%)CE(12%)CYT(15%)CMP(17%)KRO(29%)FOE(40%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 87: Ranking by 2012E EBITDA ($ in millions)$
136、10,000$9,000$8,000$7,000$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 88: Ranking by change in 2012E EBITDA80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)(60%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informa
137、tionDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page41$8,180$6,422$5,933$5,626$4,144$3,799$3,280$2,716$2,700$2,208$2,072$1,433$1,392$1,380$1,310$958$927$841$731$700$641$547$533$519$416$407$386$309$268(9%)LYBALBARGASHVALAPDMONGGCOLNCYTCECMPFMCHUNDOWMOSROCRPMEMNSHW81%31%31%32%23%22%19%18%15%14%14%11%11%10%10%10%9% 9
138、% 9% 9% 9%8% 8% 7%7%6%CHMT5%4%2%KROGRAPOTPPG1%VALASHFOEALBLYBARGROCCBTCYTDDSHWGGCWLKMONCMPDOWCHMTRPMKROOLNAPDFMCPOTCEHUNMOSEMNGRAPPGECLFULPX(10%)FOEDDPXECLFUL$1478 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 89: Ranking by 2013E EBITDA ($ in millions)$10,000$9,000$8,000$7,000$6,000$5,0
139、00$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 90: Ranking by change in 2013E EBITDA90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage42Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.57%31%2
140、8%28%25%26%23%23%22%21%21%21%20%19%19%18%18%17%17%17%15%15%14%16%13%13%12%12%12%12%9%ALBCYTARGASHVALAPDOLNLYBCEMONGGCWLKCMPFMCHUNDOWMOSROCEMNKRORPM29040074024020018017016014013011010050 50504040302010(10)(20)(30)CHMT(80)(80)(80)(30)SHWGRAPOTPPG(130)(260)(290)MOSASHVALLYBALBARGSHWROCCYTOLNAPDWLK GGCF
141、OECBTDDPOTCEMONCHMTDOWGRACMPFMCHUNRPMPPGEMNPXFULECL(350)FOEDDPXCBTECLFUL6%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 91: Ranking by 2012E EBITDA margin60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 92: Ranking by 2012E change in EBI
142、TDA margin (bps)9008007006005004003002001000(100)(200)(300)(400)(500)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page4357%32%29%29%27%27%26%24%22%22%21%20%19%19%19%18%18%18%17%17%16%16%15%15%14%14%14%13%13%12%12%ASHVALALBROCCYTDDARG KROOLNAPDCE
143、MONWLKPOTCMPFMCPXMOSEMN GRAECLLYBSHWGGCDOWCHMT4603602401601601501201001209080 80726450406050 50 50 5030 30 30203(30)(40)(60)(70)RPM(200)ASHVALLYBFOEALBDDROCCBTARGCYTSHWGGCWLKCMPMONDOWCHMTMOSGRARPMEMNKROAPDOLNCEFMCPOTHUNPPGFULPXECL(310)HUNPPGFOECBTFUL8%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals Scor
144、ecardFigure 93: Ranking by 2013E EBITDA margin65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 94: Ranking by 2013E change in EBITDA margin (bps)6004002000(200)(400)(600)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company i
145、nformationPage44Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.DOWLYBDDPPGMONECLHUNPXMOSAPDSHWPOTASHEMNCEARGVALRPM WLK FMCROCGGCCBTALBOLNKROFULFOECYTCMP$4.75$4.11 $4.10$3.80 $3.76$3.49 $3.43 $3.26$2.70$2.11 $1.97 $1.95 $1.87 $1.72$1.06$6.37$8.11$8.21$8.91$9.51$9.61$11.11$11.18$11.44$11.83$13.52$15.14$37.03$44.73$56.4
146、4ECL26%25%15%13%12%12%11%8% 8%7%7%5%4%2% 2% 2% 2%78%ASHFULMONEMNMOS ARG FMCSHWRPM OLNGGC WLKVALPOTHUN PPGKROCBT(0%)PX(1%)CMP(4%)DD(4%)APD(5%)ROC(5%)CE(6%)ALB(6%)DOW(6%)LYB(12%)FOE(13%)CYT(44%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 95: Ranking by 2012E sales ($ in billions)$60$50
147、$40$30$20$10$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 96: Ranking by 2012E sales growth YoY90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)(60%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page45GGC22%
148、19%18%18%13%12%10%9%9% 9%8%8%7% 7% 7%6%6% 6%6%5%5%5%4%4%4%1%28%DOWLYBDDMONPPGECLHUNPXMOS SHWAPDPOTEMN ASHCEARGVALGGCRPMWLK FMCCBTROCALBOLNKROFULCYTFOECMP$6.71$4.98$4.46 $4.39 $4.34 $4.25 $4.07$3.84 $3.82$2.81$2.37$2.11 $2.11 $2.10 $1.96$1.16$8.58$9.58$9.81$10.15$10.18$11.27$11.87$11.90$14.03$14.33$1
149、4.45$36.72$40.05$60.00CYTECLEMN CBTOLNWLK POTROCVALCMP FMCFULKROSHW MONDOWPXRPM APDCEARGFOEASHHUNALBMOSDD(1%)PPG(5%)LYB(10%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 97: Ranking by 2013E sales ($ in billions)$70$60$50$40$30$20$10$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and
150、 company informationFigure 98: Ranking by 2013E sales growth YoY30%25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage46Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.22%14%13%10%4%4%10%3%2%1% 1%0% 0% 0%(0%)(0%)(0%)(1%)(3%)(3%)(3%)(4%)(5%)(5%)(6%)(11%)(12%)(27%)CY
151、TVALLYBOLNARGASHAPDALBGGCWLKCMPCEMONFMCHUNFOEDOWRPMSHW(16%)84%45%29%11%9%8%6%11%3%0%(0%)(1%)(1%)(3%) (3%)(4%)(1%)(4%)(5%) (5%)(6%)(7%)(8%)(10%) (10%)(16%)(19%)(11%)(20%)GGCALBARGCYTVALAPDASHLYBOLNCEWLKCMPDOWSHWMONFMCFOERPMMOSEMNROC HUNPXFULDDCBTKROPOTECLPPG(50%)MOSROCEMNCBTFULKROPOTECLPPGDDPX(34%)8
152、November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 99: Ranking by September (Act.) qtr sales growth % QoQ30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 100: Ranking by Dec. (est.) qtr sales growth % QoQ100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(
153、40%)(60%)(80%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page4729%28%18%74%12%8%6%5% 5%3%3%1%(0%)(0%)(1%)(2%)(4%)(4%)(4%)(8%)(9%)(9%)(10%)(11%)(13%)(14%)(15%)(21%)(22%)DDASHVALALBFOEROCLYBCBTCBTARGSHWGGCMONWLKKROOLNAPD27%26%17%14%25%80%13%11%1
154、1%9%9%6% 6%4%3% 2%0% 0%(0%)(1%) (1%)(3%)(6%)(4%)DOWMOS(9%)(10%) (10%)(11%)CMPFMCRPMHUN(17%)DDCYT(34%)ASHVALFOEALBROCOLNARGAPDLYBCBTSHWGGCWLKDOWMONCMPRPMMOSEMNKROPOTFMCHUNPPGECLFULCEPXCYTPOTPPGECLFULCEPX(41%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 101: Ranking by September (Act.)q
155、tr sales growth % YoY100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information.Figure 102: Ranking by Dec. (est.)qtr sales growth % YoY100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)(60%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and com
156、pany information.Page48Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.2.652.812.49 2.482.432.15 2.142.241.931.801.731.601.701.501.361.190.50 0.490.44 0.430.41(0.19)VALALBARGASHCYTLYBWLKCBTDDKROAPDCEDOWMONFOEPX1.881.701.361.231.231.290.97 0.970.960.89 0.890.800.880.700.680.530.470.450.370.36 0.350.330.17ASHVALFOEALBRO
157、CLYBDDARGWLKKROCBTAPDCYTCEPOTDOWMONCMPPPGPXEMNMOSECLFUL0.09MOSROCECLFULCMPEMNPPGPOT(0.88)(0.40)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardLeverage, liquidity & capitalFigure 103: Ranking by 2012E net debt/EBITDA3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0(0.5)(1.0)(1.5)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estim
158、ates and company informationFigure 104: Ranking by 2012E total debt/equity2.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page492.942.492.222.171.87 1.871.852.041.451.731.23 1.231.140.850.980.830.710.270.210.19(0.01
159、)(0.40)(0.49)0.16MONDOW1.991.671.321.371.080.82 0.820.81 0.800.770.970.760.740.610.600.550.330.32 0.320.300.280.49MONASHVAL FOEDDALBROCCYTLYBCBTARGKROAPDCEDOWWLKCMPPPGPOTMOSPXEMNECLFUL0.08MOS(0.80)ASHVALFOEDDALBROCCYTARGKROAPDLYBCBTCEWLKCMPEMNPPGPOTPXECLFUL8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals
160、 ScorecardFigure 105: Ranking by 2013E net debt/EBITDA3.32.82.31.81.30.80.3(0.2)(0.7)(1.2)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 106: Ranking by 2013E total debt/equity2.52.01.51.00.50.0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage
161、50Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.$8,565$15,954$7,462$4,838$5,431$3,067 $3,052$2,404$2,116 $2,071 $2,065$1,968$1,199$1,332$720 $637$376 $337 $294 $294 $211($129)($1,511)MONLYBARGASHVALAPDCYTALBCEDOWWLKCMPFOEDD$15,161$6,773$8,233$5,511$4,568$2,724 $2,686$2,358$1,893 $1,863 $1,842$1,139 $1,073$547$397$38
162、0$328$275$154$103($40)($304)($2,015)ASHVALLYBFOEROCARGCYTALBDDCBTKROAPDCEWLKPOTDOWMONCMPPPGMOSPXEMNECLFUL($2,638)MOSPXEMNROCCBTFULKROPOTECLPPG($2,759)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 107: Ranking by 2012E net debt ($ in millions)$20,000$16,000$12,000$8,000$4,000$0($4,000)(
163、$8,000)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 108: Ranking by 2013E net debt ($ in millions)$18,000$16,000$14,000$12,000$10,000$8,000$6,000$4,000$2,000$0($2,000)($4,000)($6,000)($8,000)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeuts
164、che Bank Securities Inc.Page51POT26.4%HUN RPM POTMONOLNFMCMOS GGCPPGEMN ROCSHWASHKROVALLYBAPDECLDDCEALBCMP ARGDOWPXWLKCBTFULFOECYT(0.4%)(0.7%)7.6%7.5%7.3%7.2%7.2%6.9%6.5%6.4%5.9%5.4%5.2%4.7%4.0%3.2%3.0%2.8%1.9%1.7%1.1%7.6%8.4%9.6%9.6%9.9%17.9%18.2%18.9%21.4%MOS16.8%15.4%14.8%13.2%11.0%9.0% 8.9%8.5%8
165、.0%7.5%7.3%6.7% 6.6%6.5%5.9%5.6%5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%4.7%4.4%4.2% 3.8%3.0%2.2%1.5%25.0%HUN OLN RPMMON ARGALBEMN KROLYBDDFULVALPPGFMC CMP ROCECLCE PXASHSHWGGC WLKDOWFOECBTAPDCYT(2.1%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 109: Ranking by 2012E free cash flow/sales25%20%15%10%5%0%(5
166、%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 110: Ranking by 2013E free cash flow/sales30%25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)Source: Deutsche BankPage52Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.PXCMPPXAPD CYTWLKCBTARGECLPOTSHWFMC14.714.613.8 13.8 13.712.812.312.111.2DOWROCPPGFULRPMEMNCEA
167、SHLYBHUNKRO8.17.06.35.511.110.7 10.710.5 10.49.815.315.918.019.420.122.125.931.134.323.623.420.419.318.614.913.413.312.712.612.312.1FOEAPDCYTCBTCMPARGMONECLSHW MOSPPGDD12.0MONROC11.5ALBFMC11.5MOSVAL10.09.8 9.89.69.48.88.68.1DDVALALBFULPOTRPMDOWCEWLK EMN ASH7.8FOE7.7LYB6.7OLN6.5HUN6.5KRO6.18 November
168、 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 111: Ranking by 2012E EV/(EBITDA-Capex)4035302520151050Source: Deutsche BankFigure 112: Ranking by 2013E EV/(EBITDA-Capex)2520151050Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page53210%157%89%8
169、4%83%80%64%58%56%88%50%34%31% 31%40%27% 26% 26%24%23%16%15%11% 11% 11%8%WLKVALROCARGKROOLNSHWMONCMPFMCASHLYBDDAPDALBCBTPOTCEDOWRPM157%210%89%84%83%80%88%58%56%64%50%34%31% 31%40%27% 26% 26%24%23%16%15%11%MOSEMN11% 11%8%WLKVALARGROCKROAPDSHWMONCMPFMCASHLYBALBCBTDDOLNPOTCEDOWRPMMOSEMNHUNPPGPXFULECL4%H
170、UNPPGPXFULECL4%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 113: Ranking by 2012E dividends/(cash flow from operations less capital spending)225%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%25%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 114: Ranking by 2013E dividends
171、/(cash flow from operations less capital spending)225%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%25%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage54Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.69%57%50%80%49%44%43%39%37%32%30%28%27%26%24%24%24%21%19%18%17%14%12%11% 11%6% 6%CE5%CELYBVALAPDOLNCYTALBARGA
172、SHMONDOWSHW54%48%47%44%42%40%38%37%36%35%35%33%28%23%22%21%21%20%19%17%16%14%13%12%12%9%MOSROCVALROCARGKROSHWASHLYBALBDDAPDOLNCYTCBTMONDOWMOSWLKCMPPOTRPMHUNEMNFMCPPGPXECLFUL2%WLKCMPRPMEMNFMCHUNDDPXKROCBTECLPPGPOTFUL2%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 115: Ranking by 2012E d
173、ividend payout ratio85%80%75%70%65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 116: Ranking by 2013E dividend payout ratio60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informatio
174、nDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page553.73.73.44.53.42.72.72.72.42.32.12.12.01.91.81.71.71.51.51.51.41.31.21.1ASHAGUROCCYTWLKMONDOWARGKROCMPAPDPPGMOSEMN$509$349$180$174$101$128$96$73$64$43$30 $27 $25 $25 $24$8($6) ($6)($11)($57)($75)($58)($100)($178)POTASHVALFOEDOWMONMOSAGULYBDDROCALBCBTARGKROCYTWLKCM
175、PEMNAPDPPGFULECLCEPX($245)VALFOEALBLYBDDCBTCEPOTFULECLPX1.18 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 117: Ranking by 2012E current ratio5.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 118: Ranking by 2012E change in wor
176、king capital ($ in millions)$600$500$400$300$200$100$0($100)($200)($300)($400)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage56Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.6.2%5.1%3.8%2.2%1.6%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.2%(0.0%)(0.3%)(0.9%) (0.9%)(1.0%)(1.5%)(1.0%)(2.0%)ASH
177、VALMONDOWMOS17.58.69.67.87.57.57.06.66.56.36.26.26.06.06.05.04.44.34.04.04.03.93.63.2KROVALASHAGUFOELYBALBDDWLKARGROCAPDCYTCBTCEPOTDOWMONMOSCMPPPGPXEMNFULECL2.4AGUALBLYBROCARGKROCYTFOECBTDDAPDCEWLKCMPPPGEMNPOTFULPXECL(2.1%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 119: Ranking by 2
178、012E change in working capital as a % of sales8%6%4%2%0%(2%)(4%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 120: Ranking by 2012E Inventory turnover20181614121086420Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.P
179、age57CYTCBTPPGECLASHVALFOEAGUALBROCARGKROAPDMONDOWWLKCMPLYBDDCEPOTPXVALASHCBTAPDPOT PPGEMNECLFOEALBMOSARGLYBDDROCEMNWLKFULKRODOWMONMOSCMPCYTCEFULPX8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 121: Ranking by 2012E days sales outstanding1009080897672 7170666061 61 60 60 595755 54 54 54
180、 5352 515047 4640403835303020100Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 122: Ranking by 2012E days in payables130231201201151101001009090807060656563605855504030484745434238383732313029262520100Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informat
181、ionPage58Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.$2,400$2,200$2,200$1,900$1,696$1,639$1,200$646$600$450$425$375$357 $351 $349$325$300 $298$275$260$249$200$150 $144$90 $86 $85$74$55FOELYBALBARGCYTASHVALAPDOLNCEMONDOWGGCWLKCMPFMCHUNMOSRPMDDPXEMNROCCBT$2,100$2,200$1,800$2,000$1,500$1,750$1,400$900$750$386$375$500
182、$335$330$315$300$270$253$225$200$190$152$150$124SHW$90 $84$108$75KROPOTECLPPG$65FULFUL$40LYBCYTALBASHARGMONGGCWLKCMPVALOLNAPDCEDOWFMCHUNMOSROCRPMEMNSHWKROPPGFOEPXDDPOTCBTECL$608 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 123: Ranking by 2012E capital spending ($ in millions)$2,600$2,4
183、00$2,200$2,000$1,800$1,600$1,400$1,200$1,000$800$600$400$200$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 124: Ranking by 2013E capital spending ($ in millions)$2,400$2,100$1,800$1,500$1,200$900$600$300$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company in
184、formationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page5976%72%48%44%44%43%140%40%39%35%30%30%26%22%20%19%14%13%11%8% 7%5%3%1% 1%(2%)(4%)(11%)(17%)ALBCYTARGASHVALOLNAPDLYBGGCWLKMONCMPFMCCEHUNDOWRPMMOSROCKROEMNSHW63%39%25%25%25%29%15%12%11%9%7%6% 6% 6% 5%3%2% 1%0% 0% 0%(1%)(5%)(7%)(8%)(23%)(31%)(36%)(53%)WLKPPGAS
185、HLYBVALFOEROCCYTKROARGAPDALBCBTDDSHWGGCMONCMPFMCDOWMOSRPMEMNHUNOLNCEPPGPOTFULECLPX(65%)FOECBTFULDDPXPOTECL(24%)8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 125: Ranking by change in 2012E capital spending YoY150%140%130%120%110%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%
186、)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 126: Ranking by change in 2013E capital spending YoY80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)(100%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information.Page60Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.APD17.7%15.5%14.3%13.0
187、%10.7%10.1%7.8%6.8%6.6%6.2% 6.2%17.7%POTPXAPDOLNMOS CMPCYTWLKALBROCCBTARG FMCCEEMNDDECLMONDOWKRO ASHHUNFOELYBGGCVALPPGRPMFULSHW6.6%5.9%5.5%5.1% 5.1%4.8%4.3%3.7%3.6%3.1%2.9%2.7%2.5%2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%1.5%7.5%8.0%8.6%10.2%11.2%11.6%14.1%14.8%16.6%17.6%19.7%24.7%PXMOSPOTCMPCYTROCCBTALBARG MONFMCCE5.6%D
188、D5.4%ECL5.3%OLN5.2%EMN5.2%WLK4.7%LYB3.7%ASH3.7%DOW3.7%KRO3.5%FUL3.1%FOE3.1%GGC2.5%PPG2.3%HUN2.3%VAL2.0%RPM1.9%SHW1.5%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 127: Ranking by 2012E capital spending/sales28%26%24%22%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. e
189、stimates and company informationFigure 128: Ranking by 2013E capital spending/sales20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page61369%324% 323%315%275%227%202%220%191%151%173%142%140%130%125%123%117%115%108%104%11
190、4%100%96%96%92%85%84%82%VALARGROCKROSHWWLKMONGGCCMPFMCRPMDOWMOSEMNHUN326%311%221%222%205%200%181%174%153%150% 150% 150%148%146%134%116%116%111% 110%107% 106%101% 100%98%98%94%89%81%74%ASHALBLYBARGVALCYTAPDOLNCEMONGGCWLKCMPFMCDOWMOSROCRPMEMNSHWKROHUNPOTFOEDDPXCBTFULPPGECL61%ASHALBOLNAPDCYTLYBFOECBTDD
191、POTCEPPGPXECLFUL69%73%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 129: Ranking by 2012E capital spending/depreciation450%400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information.Figure 130: Ranking by 2013E capital spending/depreciation
192、350%325%300%275%250%225%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%25%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage62Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.58.0%22.5%21.6%19.0%18.4%12.8%14.7%8.3%5.5%5.1% 5.0% 5.0%4.6%3.6% 3.5%2.7% 2.5%4.6%2.2% 2.2%0.8%0.5% 0.5%ASHROCCYTKROVALFOECBTAGULYBFMCRPM
193、OLNAPDALBDDCEPXPOT$43$40VALOLNDOW$9,289$6,644$1,230$1,199$951$1,079$762$703$601$509$465$350$253$162 $161$131 $124 $112$96$83$79MONMOS$64WLKWLK$24HUNEMNPPGASHROCCYT FOEDOWMONKROHUNPPGPOTCBT AGULYBAPDFMCALBDDCERPMPXMOSEMN0.5%0.5%8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 131: Ranking
194、by 2011 Unfunded pension liability/market cap.70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, company data, factsetFigure 132: Ranking by 2011 unfunded pension liability ($ MM)$10,000$9,000$8,000$7,000$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank, company dataDeutsche Bank Securities Inc
195、.Page63-8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 133: US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end marketsCompanyAuto &TransportConstructionElectronics Comments3MAir Products11%4%10%15%Industrial 25%; Healthcare 18%; Consumer 15%; Energy 3%, Safety & Security 14%Energy 24%,
196、Genl Mfg 15%, Chemicals 17%, Metals 10%, Medical 7%, Food 3%, Others10%Airgas2%13%Industrial & Mfg: 25% ; Repair & Maintenance: 27% Retail & Wholesale: 4% Other 3%Medical: 9% ; Food; 6%; Analytical: 2% Utilities: 2%, Petrochemical: 7% “Auto & Transport”is only Transport and no AutoAlbemarleAshland6%
197、8%9%17%15%Refining 32%, Pharma/ Ag 12%, Industrial 10%, Packaging 9%, Oilfield 4%, Other 3%Coatings 6%, Lubricants 15%, Chemicals 5%, Pulp/ paper 12%, Energy 3%, Regulated Ind3%, Marine 4%, Infrastructure 2%, Packaging/ converting 3%, Retail consumer 3%, PersonalCare 3%, Medical 2%, Others 14%Celane
198、se11%3%Filter Media 22%; Paints & Coatings 13%; Consumer & Medical Apps 12%; Consumer &Industrial Adhesives; Industrial Performance Apps 7%; Textiles 5% ; Food & Beverage 4%;Paper & Packaging 3%Cytec17%47%Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%; Plastic : 4%; Adhesives: 3% ; Other: 9%“Auto & T
199、ransport” consists of Automotive onlyDuPont20%10%9%Agriculture/ food 21%; Food Ingred, Ref & packaging 8%; Other packaging 3%; Chemicals/petchem 5%; Textile/ apparel 5%; Plastics 3%; Other industrial 7%; Aeropsace 4%; Paper1%; Healthcare 1%; Personal care 3%.“Construction” includes residential, comm
200、ercialconstruction”Eastman6%11%2%Packaging 28%; Tobacco 18%; Consumables 10%; Durable Goods 7%; Industrial Chems &Processing 6%; Agriculture 2%; Energy, Fuel, & Water 2%FerroHB Fuller10%34%10%21%Appliances 8%; Containers 8%; Household furnishings 7%; Industrial 6%; Others 6%Adhesives: 72%; Paints: 8
201、%; Packaging: 4%; Insulating glass: 4%; Consumer: 2%LyondellBasell7%10%Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Consumer:12%;Coatings:4%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%; Other:10%. “Auto & Transport” consists of Transportation only.“Construction” consists of “Building & Construction”.PPG30%27%Consumer goods 21%; In
202、dustrial goods 10%; Chemical products: 5%; Aerospace 4%; Marine3% (Auto consists of OEM 19%, Auto aftermarket 11%)Praxair7%Manufacturing 24%; Chemicals 10%; Energy 13%; Food and Beverage 7%; Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%; Metals 16%; Other 11%Rockwood Holdings11%13%8.0%Metal Treatment 17%; Chemicals/P
203、lastics 14%; Life Sciences 12%; Consumer Products 2%;Paper 2%; Environmental 2%; Other 8%Valspar3%30%Industrial 36%, Packaging 21%, Other 10% “Auto & Transport” is automotive refinish and“Construction” is architectural paintsSource: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimatesPage64Deutsche Bank Securities
204、 Inc.AGUARGWLKVALALBASHAPDCYTOMNMONCMPFOEDOWMOSEMNDDCEPXMMMROCKROPPG POTECLFUL8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 134: US Chemicals exposure to geographical markets (2011)CompanyUSCanadaEuropeAsia-Pacific (inc. Latin AmericaROWChina*China)3MAgriumAlbemarleAir ProductsAirgasAs
205、hlandCabotCelaneseCompass MineralsCytecDowDuPontDowEastmanEcolabFerroH.B. FullerKronosLyondellBasellMonsantoMosaicOmnova SolutionsPotashPPGPraxairRockwoodValsparWestlake34%76%39%44%100%54%19%26%68%35%32%35%32%53%52%47%40%28%52%54%35%61%41%42%49%20%52%89%0%13%0%3%0%0%0%5%22%0%0%3%0%0%4%0%0%11%0%4%6%1
206、%46%0%0%0%0%7%24%6%0%30%0%26%0%41%8%40%35%26%35%19%29%16%30%60%36%13%0%22%0%34%13%69%15%0%31%0%0%0%0%13%18%21%0%18%0%23%0%23%11%0%13%0%0%7%22%16%0%17%12%0%12%1%12%5%0%0%0%7%0%4%0%7%0%13%0%4%5%0%17%0%0%17%23%0%0%0%21%0%0%0%0%1%61%23%0%0%63%4%2%0%33%0%33%0%0%37%0%0%12%5%13%0%13%8%6%11%21%3%0%0%0%4%0%0
207、%12%10%0%0%0%9%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%4%0%0%0%12%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, company data; * represents 2011 data; ND = Not DisclosedFigure 135: Ranking by 2011 Exposure to the US100%90%80%70%100%89%76%68%61%60%50%40%30%54% 54% 53% 52% 52%49% 47%44% 42%41% 40% 39%35% 35% 35% 34%32%28% 26%20%20%10
208、%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Company dataDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page65ROCKROOMNMONDOWCYTASHVALCEMOSEMNMMMMMMOMNMONWLKPXFULPPGECLDDAGUCYTASHVALAPDCECMPFOEDDEMNFULPPGECLPX8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 136: Ranking by 2011 Exposure to Europe80%70%69%60%60%50%41
209、%40%40%35%34%30%20%30%30%29%26%26%24%22%19%16%15%13%13%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Company dataFigure 137: Ranking by 2011 Exposure to Asia- Pacific35%31%30%8%6%25%23%22%21%20%18%17%16%15%13%13%12%12%11%10%9%7%5%1%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Company dataPage66Deutsche Bank Securities
210、Inc.VALDDAPDCEPOTMOS8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 138: Ranking by 2011 Exposure to China14%12%12%10%10%8%6%9%4%4%4%2%2%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Company dataDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page67Q108Q208Q308Q408Q109Q209Q309Q409Q110Q210Q310Q410Q111Q211Q311Q411Q112Q2
211、12Q312Q104Q204Q304Q404Q105Q205Q205Q305Q106Q206Q306Q406Q107Q207Q307Q407Q108Q208Q308Q408Q109Q209Q309Q409Q110Q210Q310Q410Q111Q211Q311Q411Q112Q212Q3128 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 139: US Chemicals selling price trends (2004-Present)45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%
212、)(20%)(25%)CommoditiesSpecialties/DifferentiatedsGasesSource: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 140: US Chemicals volume trends (2004-Present)30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)CommoditiesGasesSource: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage68Spe
213、cialties/DifferentiatedsIndustrial Production: Chem indexDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.Page69ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commodity8November2012-Figure 141: Chemicals valuation ratiosMarket Segment/Price52-WeekMkt CapP/E RatioP/E Rel. to S&P 500 EV/EBITDAFCF YieldP/FCFDiv.Net
214、 Debt/CompanySymbolRating11/4/12Range($MM)2012E2013E2012E2013E 2012E 2013E2012E2013E2012E2013EYield12E EBITDASpecialty ChemicalsAlbemarleAshlandCabotChemturaCytecEcolabFerroH.B. FullerW.R. Grace3MMinerals TechnologiesNewMarket Corp.ALBASHCBTCHMTCYTECLFOEFULGRAMMMMTXNEUBuyBuyHold-BuyBuyBuyHold-Hold-$
215、56.2371.2536.8816.6868.9470.612.6530.4565.5788.9771.42274.20$697845187171835669576283$474829104152321367552173$5,0325,5962,4181,6383,18120,6532291,5204,91461,5071,2603,67912.510.611.911.025.523.729.214.215.914.117.314.811.49.414.68.414.219.97.611.714.113.015.814.50.900.760.850.791.841.702.101.021.14
216、1.011.241.060.870.731.120.651.091.530.580.901.091.001.221.128.16.38.25.010.011.75.88.86.28.55.79.37.46.07.64.39.19.64.27.45.67.95.5-2.5%1.5%2.7%-1.2%3.3%(17.7%)1.3%-4.8%-5.0%8.0%0.1%-(1.5%)3.5%5.5%(0.3%)-6.0%-40.3-30.1-21.0-20.112.6788.7-28.618.2-16.7-1.2%0.9%2.0%-0.7%1.0%-1.0%-2.5%0.3%0.9%0.52.22.9
217、1.32.53.32.10.40.9OM GroupOMG-$20.39$31$15$66010.39.20.740.71-PolyoneRPMPOLRPM-$20.0527.28$2029$1021$1,7863,60916.815.614.614.11.201.121.121.088.09.07.38.2-0.8%3.2%1.51.8RockwoodA. SchulmanValsparROCSHLMVALBuy-Hold$46.6525.1958.74$572860$371833$3,6227385,32211.912.017.912.111.016.30.860.861.290.930.
218、851.266.9-10.46.56.39.87.0%4.2%5.1%5.8%6.2%5.3%14.3-19.617.3-18.8-2.9%1.2%1.91.6Specialty Chemical Average15.812.91.140.998.07.01.5%4.0%25.1115.11.4%1.8CoatingsPPGSherwin WilliamsValsparRPMPPGSHWVALRPMHold-Hold-$119.92142.0058.7427$1281576029$79823321$18,37214,6415,3223,60915.122.017.915.615.718.316
219、.314.11.081.581.291.121.211.411.261.089.313.010.49.010.411.39.88.25.0%-5.1%4.8%-5.3%20.1-19.6-21.0-18.8-1.9%1.0%1.2%3.2%1.40.71.61.8Coatings Average17.716.11.271.2410.49.95.0%5.1%19.919.91.8%1.5Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, FactsetPage70DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commod
220、ity8November2012-Figure 142: Chemicals valuation ratios cont.Market Segment/Price52-WeekMkt CapP/E RatioP/E Rel. to S&P 500 EV/EBITDAFCF YieldP/FCFDiv.Net Debt/CompanySymbolRating11/4/12Range($MM)2012E2013E2012E2013E 2012E 2013E2012E2013E2012E2013EYieldLTM EBITDAIndustrial GasesAirgasAir ProductsARG
221、APDHoldBuy$89.2878.15$9393$6976$6,87016,54521.814.419.613.51.571.031.511.0410.58.49.67.82.1%0.4%3.8%(1.0%)244.226.41.3%3.2%2.41.8PraxairPXBuy$109.70$117$93$32,76119.717.71.411.3611.510.60.9%1.9%107.052.61.8%2.0Industrial Gases Average18.616.91.341.3010.19.31.2%1.6%175.639.52.1%2.1Differentiated Chem
222、icalsCelaneseDow ChemicalDupontCEDOWDDBuyHoldBuy$39.1629.7544.15$533658$332443$6,19135,64441,16410.516.012.89.312.612.10.751.150.920.720.970.936.87.68.46.36.98.35.3%4.9%4.8%5.7%6.5%6.7%18.720.620.817.615.315.00.6%3.0%3.7%1.72.21.9FMCFMC-$54.12$59$38$7,43615.513.61.121.049.48.40.6%0.7Eastman Chemical
223、HuntsmanEMNHUNBuy-$59.3016.19$6117$359$9,0523,87811.27.69.47.70.800.550.730.607.65.36.15.35.8%0.0%10.0%0.0%17.310.01.7%2.5%0.62.1KratonKRA-$21.99$31$18$71024.58.61.760.677.65.1-2.0OMNOVA SolutionsOMNBuy$7.73$9$4$36211.49.70.820.754.54.217.9%14.1%7.1-2.6PPGPPGHold$119.92$128$79$18,37215.115.71.081.21
224、9.310.45.0%4.8%20.121.01.9%1.4Differentiated Chemical Average13.811.01.00.87.46.86.2%6.8%17.415.82.0%1.7Commodity ChemicalsGeorgia GulfGGC-US-$36.42$41$16$1,25713.010.10.930.786.15.49.2-KronosLyondellBasellKROLYBHoldBuy$13.3153.06$2656$1328$1,54330,5196.210.27.49.10.440.730.570.704.55.54.95.19.2%9.5
225、%11.6%10.7%10.910.58.68.1%-0.4MethanexOlinPetrologisticsTPC GroupTronoxMXOLNPDHTPCTROX-$12.8220.9412.8512.0920.22$1423171738$71810920$4611,6781,7865752,5546.811.212.97.96.06.19.89.15.76.20.490.810.930.570.430.470.760.700.440.484.15.212.84.64.83.84.68.33.83.3-3.8%-0.0-Westlake ChemicalWLKHold$77.90$8
226、0$38$5,18016.713.91.201.077.36.41.5%3.6%66.227.50.4%-0.5Commodity Chemical Average10.18.60.70.76.15.16.5%7.5%24.218.14.1%1.2Ag BiotechMonsantoSyngentaDupontMONSYNN-CHDDBuyBuy$85.87362.3044.15$9236858$6725243$45,70832,83141,16423.216.512.820.014.812.11.671.190.921.541.140.9311.510.78.410.69.68.35.2%3
227、.1%4.8%4.3%5.1%6.7%19.332.320.823.119.615.01.5%2.3%3.7%-0.40.41.9Ag Biotech Average17.515.61.31.210.29.54.4%5.4%24.119.22.5%0.6Agchems/FertilizersTSX:aguAgriumAGUBuy$105.78$108$63$16,71310.110.40.720.808.710.66.1%4.4%16.422.50.1%0.9CF IndustriesCF-$199.03$228$128$12,4797.47.9-3.94.20.5%0.1Compass Mi
228、neralsCMPHold$77.87$81$67$2,57522.816.11.641.2412.59.51.6%2.6%62.138.32.3%1.6Intrepid PotashIPI-$21.74$27$18$1,63718.215.4-7.66.4-0.2MosaicPotash Corp.MOSPOTHoldHold$52.1940.30$6250$4437$22,21434,62911.611.911.110.30.840.850.850.806.28.15.97.24.7%4.4%3.6%7.3%21.422.827.613.80.5%0.7%-0.80.8Ag/Fertili
229、zer AverageChemical Average (ex-Ag.)15.514.513.512.01.01.00.90.97.87.77.36.84.2%0.04.5%0.130.739.925.565.60.8%0.00.41.5S&P 500SPX$ 1,414.20$ 1,475$ 1,159$ 12,649,17413.913.0Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, FactsetDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.Page71ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commodity8November2012-Figu
230、re 143: Chemicals valuation metricsMarket Segment/Price52-WeekMkt CapEVEarnings Per ShareEPS ChangeEBITDA Per ShareFCF Per ShareCompanySymbolRating11/4/12Range($MM)($MM)2012E2013E2012E2013E2012E2013E2012E2013ESpecialty ChemicalsAlbemarleAshlandCabotChemturaCytecEcolabFerroH.B. FullerALBASHCBTCHMTCYT
231、ECLFOEFULBuyBuyHoldBuyBuyBuyHold$ 56.23$ 71.25$ 36.88$ 16.68$ 68.94$ 70.61$ 2.65$ 30.45$697845187171835$474829104152321$5,0325,5962,4181,6383,18120,6532291,520$5,4278,6633,7352,2123,66926,4195521,986$4.50$6.72$3.10$1.52$2.70$2.98$0.09$2.15$4.95$7.55$2.53$1.99$4.85$3.55$0.35$2.60(6%)60%(3%)36%(26%)21
232、%(87%)13%10%112%(19%)31%80%19%286%21%$7.47$17.11$7.06$4.47$7.80$7.48$1.10$4.45$8.14$17.91$7.68$5.28$9.79$8.85$1.52$5.28$1.401.091.001.100.832.34(0.47)0.41$2.795.670.051.60(1.05)2.470.15(0.08)W.R. GraceGRA$ 65.57$66$36$4,914$3,948$4.13$4.65$8.61$9.48$2.91$4.253MMinerals TechnologiesNewMarket Corp.OM
233、GroupPolyoneRPMRockwoodA. SchulmanValsparMMMMTXNEUOMGPOLRPMROCSHLMVALHold-Buy-Hold$ 88.97$ 71.42$ 274.20$ 20.39$ 20.05$ 27.28$ 46.65$ 25.19$ 58.74$9576283312029572860$7552173151021371833$61,5071,2603,6796601,7863,6093,6227385,322$64,5809493,8741,1282,3014,4205,4508356,313$6.30$4.13$18.57$1.98$1.20$1
234、.75$3.90$2.10$3.28$6.85$4.51$18.92$2.21$1.37$1.94$3.85$2.29$3.606%9%31%(49%)17%12%(3%)9%23%9%9%2%11%15%11%(1%)9%10%$10.80$9.37$30.93$7.01$3.16$3.75$9.86NM$6.41$11.60$9.83$31.35$7.38$3.47$4.13$10.52$4.30$6.71$4.233.2119.33-0.67-3.261.063.00$5.333.2116.48-1.60-2.691.563.13Specialty Chemical AverageCoa
235、tings4%36%PPGSherwin-WilliamsValsparRPMPPGSHWVALRPMHoldHold-$ 119.92$ 142.00$ 58.74$ 27.28$1281576029$79823321$18,37214,6415,3223,609$21,83215,5946,3134,420$7.95$6.44$3.28$1.75$7.65$7.76$3.60$1.9416%33%23%12%(4%)20%10%11%$15.20$11.59$6.41$3.75$14.76$13.30$6.71$4.13$5.966.083.00-$5.727.563.13-Source:
236、 Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset21%9%Page72DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commodity8November2012-Figure 144: Chemicals valuation metrics cont.Market Segment/Price52-WeekMkt CapEVEarnings Per ShareEPS ChangeEBITDA Per ShareFCF Per ShareCompanySymbolRating11/4/12Range($MM)($MM)
237、2012E2013E2012E2013E2012E2013E2012E2013EIndustrial GasesAirgasAir ProductsPraxairARGAPDPXHoldBuyBuy$ 89.28$ 78.15$ 109.70$9393117$697693$6,87016,54532,761$ 8,913$ 21,050$ 40,120$4.09$5.44$5.57$4.55$5.80$6.2023%(5%)3%11%7%11%$10.88$11.68$11.55$11.74$12.55$12.60$1.910.321.03$3.38(0.81)2.09Industrial G
238、ases AverageDifferentiated Chemicals7%10%CelaneseDow ChemicalDupontFMCEastman ChemicalHuntsmanKratonOMNOVA SolutionsPPGCEDOWDDFMCEMNHUNKRAOMNPPGBuyHoldBuy-Buy-BuyHold$ 39.16$ 29.75$ 44.15$ 54.12$ 59.30$ 16.19$ 21.99$ 7.73$ 119.92$533658596117319128$3324433835918479$6,19135,64441,1647,4369,0523,87871
239、036218,372$8,24356,30852,9178,11912,5897,2771,01451221,832$3.75$1.86$3.45$3.48$5.30$2.13$0.90$0.68$7.95$4.20$2.35$3.65$3.99$6.30$2.09$2.54$0.80$7.65(16%)(27%)(12%)16%18%26%(71%)26%16%12%26%6%15%19%(2%)183%17%(4%)$7.62$6.31$0.00$6.14$11.57$5.74$4.17$1.07$15.20$8.16$6.92$6.85$6.83$14.32$5.82$6.16$2.63
240、$14.76$2.091.452.13-3.42-1.095.96$2.231.942.95-5.94-0.065.72Differentiated Chemical AverageCommodity Chemicals(3%)30%Georgia GulfGGC-US$36.42$41$16$1,257$1,776$2.80$3.62180%29%$8.38$9.51$3.98$3.92KronosLyondellBasellMethanexOlinPetrologisticsTPC GroupTronoxWestlake ChemicalKROLYBMXOLNPDHTPCTROXWLKHo
241、ldBuy-Hold$13.3153.0612.8220.9412.8512.0920.2277.90$2656142317173880$13287181092038$1,54330,5194611,6781,7865752,5545,180$1,94831,3785031,8972,0861,0432,8274,834$2.15$5.20$1.89$1.87$0.99$1.53$3.39$4.67$1.80$5.85$2.10$2.13$1.41$2.14$3.27$5.62(27%)12%17%14%(15%)10%40%(16%)12%11%14%42%40%(4%)20%$3.71$9
242、.91$3.10$4.53NM$4.84$7.84$10.01$3.41$10.92$3.32$5.19NM$5.85$11.52$11.42$1.225.04-(1.32)(0.19)0.29-1.18$1.555.66-2.001.421.79-2.83Commodity Chemical AverageAg Biotech29%17%MonsantoSyngentaDupontMONSYNN-CHDDBuyBuy$ 85.87$ 362.30$ 44.15$9236858$6725243$45,70832,83141,164$ 44,392$ 33,863$ 52,917$3.70$21
243、.95$3.45$4.30$24.50$3.6527%13%(12%)16%12%6%$7.15NM$0.00$7.81NM$6.85$4.4511.202.13$3.7118.492.95Ag Biotech AverageFertilizers9%11%AgriumCF IndustriesCompass MineralsIntrepid PotashMosaicPotash Corp.AGUCFCMPIPIMOSPOTBuyHoldHoldHold$ 105.78$ 199.03$ 77.87$ 21.74$ 52.19$ 40.30$10822881276250$63128671844
244、37$16,71312,4792,5751,63722,21434,629$18,70013,1112,9421,46619,64238,292$10.49$26.99$3.42$1.19$4.48$3.39$10.15$25.08$4.85$1.41$4.70$3.90(25%)17%(23%)(6%)3%(3%)(3%)(7%)42%18%5%15%$13.60$51.98$7.00$2.6$7.27$5.36$11.12$47.70$9.17$3.1$7.75$6.07$6.4426.361.25(0.95)2.441.77$4.7015.292.030.241.892.93Ag/Fer
245、tilizer AverageChemical Average (ex-Ag.)(5%)12%10%12%S&P 500SPX1,4141,4751,159$101.62$108.904%7%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardValuation & RisksSectorValuation: We value companies within the chemicals sector based on: 1) forward P/Emultiples (vs. h
246、istorical ranges, and the overall market); 2) forward EV/EBITDA multiples(where leverage diverges greatly from that of peers, also vs. historical averages); 3) ouradjusted calculation of cash return on cash invested (“ROIC”) and the strong correlation(R270%) we have found between chemical sector val
247、uations and returns on capital.Risks: Chemicals volumes are tightly linked with industrial production, while input costsare closely tied to energy prices (e.g. oil, natural gas). Accordingly, key risks to ourforecasts include a recession in overall GDP (domestic or international, depending oncompany
248、-specific overseas exposure), a surge in energy prices, and sharp deterioration(or improvement, in select cases) in chemicals-intensive housing or automotiveproduction.AshlandValuationOur price target is based on Ashland trading at 6.2x 14E EBITDA in 12 months, an 13%discount to specialty chemical p
249、eers currently trading at 7.1x current year EBITDA. Webelieve this discount is justified by roughly 40% of Ashlands sales being derived fromlow margin, highly competitive and somewhat commoditized businesses in watertreatment chemicals, paper chemicals elastomers and unsaturated polyester resins.Our
250、 target is also supported by our Sum-of-the-Parts model which yields an $85/shareequity value for Ashland as well as our forecast of 9.7% ROIC in 2012E and 8.4% ROICin 2013E, and the close correlation we have found (R275%) between chemical sectorvaluations and ROIC.RiskKey risks include failure of p
251、ricing actions to keep pace with rising raw material costs(key raw materials include base oil, styrene monomer, butadiene, propylene glycol,caustic soda, guar and wood pulp), a slowdown in the pace of the economic recovery inauto and construction markets, a strengthening of the US dollar (every 1% r
252、ise reducesEBITDA by $2MM) and a failure to achieve ISP acquisition synergies.LyondellBasellValuationOur $60 price target is based on LyondellBasell trading at roughly 10x 13E EPS in 12months, roughly in-line with commodity chemical peers currently trading at 10x currentyear EPS. We believe this mul
253、tiple is justified given Lyondells North American costadvantage underpinned by low cost NGL feedstocks. Supporting our price target is aDCF derived value of $80 (based on a WACC of 9.0% risk-free rate: 4.0%, Beta: 1.35%,equity risk premium: 4.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0% (in-line with the i
254、ndustryaverage terminal growth rate).RiskKey risks include 1) a narrowing of the oil-gas ratio which could erode LyondellBasellsUS Gulf Coast cost advantage versus European and Asia petrochemical producers, 2)higher than expected ethane (ethylene feedstock) prices, 3) a stronger US dollar whichcould
255、 impede LyondellBasells ability to export chemicals and plastics from its US GulfCoast operations, 4) heightened competition in export markets from lower cost MiddleDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page738 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardEast petrochemical producers, 5) slower economi
256、c growth in either developed oremerging markets, 6) a narrowing of the heavy-to-light oil spread which couldnegatively Lyondells Houston refinery margins owing to that facilitys use of lower costheavy crudes and 7) and inability to refinance its $3.2B of 11% senior secured notes due2018.Eastman Chem
257、icalValuationOur $70 target is based on Eastman trading at 11x 2013E EPS in 12 months, in line withdifferentiated chemical peers. We believe this multiple is warranted given the progressmade integrating Solutia and cost synergies already realized. With the new Eastmanbecoming a more consistent, stab
258、le and predictable earnings generator, we believeEastmans discount versus its peers will fully close. Our $70 valuation is furthersupported by our estimate of Eastmans return on invested capital of 11% in 2013E andour analysis showing a strong correlation (R270%) between chemical sector valuationsan
259、d returns on capital.RiskDownside risks to our forecasts include increased leverage (2.8x debt/EBITDA) afailure to achieve Solutia acquisition synergies increases in propane and paraxyleneprices (Eastmans two largest raw materials), a narrowing of the US Gulf Coast propane-propylene spread, price er
260、osion within CASPI or Specialty Polymers, additional acetatetow capacity and lower global demand.The author of this report wishes to acknowledge the contribution made by Anuj Bhatiaand Abhishek Chawla, employee of Evalueserve, a third-party provider to Deutsche Bankof offshore research support servi
261、ces.Page74Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.1.6.7.8.1.6.7.8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upon requestDisclosure checklistCompanyAshlandCelanese CorpMonsantoRockwoodDuPontTickerASH.NCE.NMON.NROC.NDD.NRecent price*72.23 (
262、USD) 7 Nov 1239.08 (USD) 7 Nov 1287.35 (USD) 7 Nov 1246.09 (USD) 7 Nov 1243.83 (USD) 7 Nov 12Disclosure1,7,14,15,17146,81,78,14,15*Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companiesImportant Disclosures Required
263、by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed
264、 a public or private offeringfor this company, for which it received fees.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of thiscompany calculated under computational methods required by US law.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has receive
265、d compensation from this company for the provision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment bankingservices from this company in the next three months.14. Deutsch
266、e Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this companywithin the past year.15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it receivednon-investment banking securities-related services.Impo
267、rtant Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. RegulatorsPlease also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offeringfor this company, for w
268、hich it received fees.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of thiscompany calculated under computational methods required by US law.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision o
269、f investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.17. Deutsche Bank and or/its affiliate(s) has a significant Non-Equity financial interest (this can include Bonds,Convertible Bonds, Credit Derivatives and Traded Loans) where the aggregate net exposure to the followingissuer(s)
270、, or issuer(s) group, is more than 25m Euros.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page75SecurityPrice1.7.2.8.3.9.4.5.6.8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFor disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see
271、 the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite at http:/ CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about thesubject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addit
272、ion, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receiveany compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. David BegleiterHistorical recommendations and target price: Ashland (ASH.N)(as of 11/7/2012)90.0080.00Previous RecommendationsStrong Buy70.0060.0023456789101
273、112BuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended Rating50.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.001Current RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12Date01/27/2010:04/30/20
274、10:06/04/2010:11/03/2010:04/27/2011:06/01/2011:Page76Hold, Target Price Change USD45.00Hold, Target Price Change USD65.00Hold, Target Price Change USD58.00Hold, Target Price Change USD55.00Hold, Target Price Change USD68.00Hold, Target Price Change USD75.0006/20/2011:09/16/2011:11/16/2011:10. 01/26/
275、2012:11. 02/17/2012:12. 10/31/2012:Upgrade to Buy, USD75.00Buy, Target Price Change USD62.00Buy, Target Price Change USD65.00Buy, Target Price Change USD75.00Buy, Target Price Change USD80.00Buy, Target Price Change USD85.00Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.SecurityPriceSecurityPrice1.6.2.7.3.8.4.9.5.1.8
276、.2.9.3.4.5.6.7.8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardHistorical recommendations and target price: Celanese Corp (CE.N)(as of 11/7/2012)70.00Previous Recommendations60.005Strong BuyBuy50.00346Market PerformUnderperformNot Rated40.00127 89Suspended RatingCurrent Recommendations30.0020.0
277、010.00BuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12Date01/13/2010:04/28/2010:02/02/2011:04/27/2011:07/22/2011:Buy, Target Price Change USD40.00Buy, Target Price Change USD42.
278、00Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target Price Change USD65.0009/16/2011:06/20/2012:07/25/2012:10/24/2012:Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target Price Change USD55.00Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00Buy, Target Price Change USD45.00Historical recommendati
279、ons and target price: Monsanto (MON.N)(as of 11/7/2012)100.00Previous Recommendations90.0080.0070.0060.0050.0012345678910111213Strong BuyBuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended RatingCurrent Recommendations40.0030.0020.0010.000.00Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11
280、 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12DateBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,200201/07/2010:04/07/2010:05/28/2010:08/16/2010:09/29/2010:11/12/2010:01/07/2011:Buy, Target Price Change USD100.00Buy, Target Price Change USD82.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target
281、 Price Change USD70.00Buy, Target Price Change USD65.00Downgrade to Hold, USD65.00Hold, Target Price Change USD75.0004/11/2011:06/30/2011:10. 01/06/2012:11. 04/05/2012:12. 06/28/2012:13. 08/16/2012:Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change USD78.00Buy, Target Price Change USD80.00Buy, Target Price Change
282、USD85.00Buy, Target Price Change USD90.00Buy, Target Price Change USD92.00Buy, Target Price Change USD100.00Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page77SecurityPrice171.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardHistorical recommendations and target price: Rockwood (ROC.N)(as of 11/
283、7/2012)70.0010Previous RecommendationsStrong Buy60.00915Buy50.0040.0030.001 2346578111213141618Market PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended RatingCurrent RecommendationsBuyHold20.0010.00SellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov
284、 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12Date01/13/2010:02/18/2010:04/30/2010:07/28/2010:10/28/2010:11/10/2010:01/20/2011:02/11/2011:04/28/2011:Page78Buy, Target Price Change USD25.00Buy, Target Price Change USD28.00Buy, Target Price Change USD34.00Buy, Target Price Change USD35.00Buy, Targ
285、et Price Change USD38.00Buy, Target Price Change USD40.00Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00Buy, Target Price Change USD55.00Buy, Target Price Change USD65.0010. 07/28/2011:11. 09/16/2011:12. 10/20/2011:13. 12/16/2011:14. 01/31/2012:15. 02/22/2012:16. 06/26/2012:17. 10/01/2012:18. 10/26/2012:Buy, Targ
286、et Price Change USD70.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target Price Change USD55.00Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target Price Change USD65.00Buy, Target Price Change USD58.00Buy, Target Price Change USD56.00Buy, Target Price Change USD54.00Deutsche Ban
287、k Securities Inc.SecurityPrice11.7.2.8.3.9.4.5.6.8 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardHistorical recommendations and target price: DuPont (DD.N)(as of 11/7/2012)60.00Previous Recommendations50.003456789101112Strong BuyBuyMarket Perform40.0030.0020.0010.002UnderperformNot RatedSuspend
288、ed RatingCurrent RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12Date04/19/2010:04/28/2010:10/27/2010:12/13/2010:06/06/2011:07/29/2011:Buy, Target Price Change US
289、D44.00Buy, Target Price Change USD45.00Buy, Target Price Change USD52.00Buy, Target Price Change USD55.00Buy, Target Price Change USD58.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.0009/16/2011:01/25/2012:04/20/2012:10. 05/08/2012:11. 07/25/2012:12. 10/24/2012:Buy, Target Price Change USD55.00Buy, Target Price
290、Change USD57.00Buy, Target Price Change USD58.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target Price Change USD57.00Buy, Target Price Change USD54.00Equity rating keyEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsBuy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage
291、change in share price45040049 %49 %from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investorsbuy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutral view on th
292、e stock 12-months35030025020015010050045 %BuyHold36 %2%38 %Sellout and, based on this time horizon, do notrecommend either a Buy or Sell.CompaniesCoveredCos.w/BankingRelationshipNotes:1. Newly issued research recommendations and targetprices always supersede previously publishedresearch.2. Ratings d
293、efinitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or more over a 12-month periodHold: Expected total return (includingdividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month
294、 periodDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.NorthAmericanUniversePage798 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardRegulatory Disclosures1. Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/ under theDisclosures Lookup
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