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1、0.980.997.1Company reportFIGReal EstateEquity SingaporeabcGlobal ResearchNeutral (V)Target price (SGD)Share price (SGD)Forecast dividend yield (%)Potential return (%)6.1Ascendas Hospitality Trust(ASHT SP)Note: Potential return equals the percentagedifference between the current share price andthe ta
2、rget price, plus the forecast dividend yield.Downgrade to N(V): Limited upside after strong runMarHSBC DPUDividend yieldPerformance2012 a 2013 e4.6 7.36.9%* 7.4%1M 3M2014 e7.67.7%12M 3QFY12/13 revenue misses but DPU in line with our numbers Underperformance from ASHTs Australian hotels and aAbsolute
3、 (%)Relative (%)6.43.99.72.5weaker JPY contribute to revenue missNote: (V) = volatile (please see disclosure appendix)*annualised dividend yield Downgrading to N(V) from OW(V) after strong share priceperformance; TP unchanged at SGD0.9830 January 2013David Choo*, CFAProperty AnalystThe Hongkong and
4、Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited, Singapore Branch+65 .sgPratik Burman Ray*, CFASenior Property AnalystThe Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited, Singapore Branch+65 .sgShweta Arora*AssociateBangaloreView HSBC Global Research at:http:/*Employed by a non-US affiliate ofHSBC Securities (
5、USA) Inc, and is notregistered/qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsIssuer of report: The Hongkong andShanghai BankingCorporation Limited,Singapore BranchMICA (P) 038/04/2012MICA (P) 063/04/2012MICA (P) 206/01/2012Disclaimer &DisclosuresThis report must be readwith the disclosures andthe analyst ce
6、rtifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of itASHTs 3QFY12/13 DPU was in line with HSBC estimates. 3QFY12/13 DPU of1.8SGD cents was in line with our estimates despite revenues of SGD51m missing ournumbers. Financial year to date (27 July - 31 December 2012) rev
7、enues and DPUaccounted for 62% and 64% of our full-year estimates (the period contained 64% of thenumber of days in FY12/13). This 3-4% revenue miss for the quarter was mitigated bystronger-than-expected NPI margins (33.3% versus our forecast of 32.5%).Australian hotels impacted by weaker economic e
8、nvironment: ASHTs Australianhotels had another soft quarter, with revenue per available room (RevPAR) of AUD129 in3Q underperforming our full year estimate of AUD139. This weakness was primarilyattributed to a softer domestic economy. Revenue from Japan was also below expectationsas it was negativel
9、y impacted by the weakening of the JPY during the quarter.Ibis Beijing acquisition completed early; company on lookout for further acquisitionopportunities: The acquisition of Ibis Beijing was completed in mid-December 2012,earlier than the late January completion we had been assuming. Management co
10、mmentedthat it continues to actively look for acquisition opportunities in places like Singapore,Hong Kong, Japan, China, and South Korea.Downgrading ASHT to N(V) after strong share price performance; TP remains atSGD0.98: ASHT has outperformed its peers as well as the REIT sector in the last fivemo
11、nths and valuations now look relatively less attractive. We have reduced our FY12/13DPU estimate by 2% but have raised our FY13/14-14/15 DPU estimates by 1-2% as welowered our cost of debt assumptions slightly. Our target price, based on the average ofour DDM and RNAV-based valuations (overlaid with
12、 our qualitative premium-discountframework), is unchanged at SGD0.98 (5% below consensus). A positive catalyst for thestock could be the announcement of a value accretive acquisition while a negative catalystfor the stock could be an adverse movement in the AUD, JPY or CNY.Index STRAITS TIMES INDEX
13、Enterprise value (SGDm) 1,199Index level 3,269 Free float (%) 71RIC ASHP.SI Market cap (USDm) 645Bloomberg ASHT SP Market cap (SGDm) 800Source: HSBCSource: HSBC03Ascendas Hospitality Trust (ASHT SP)Real Estate30 January 2013Financials & valuation: Ascendas Hospitality TrustabcNeutral (V)Financial st
14、atementsRNAV Computation (SGDm)FY13eYear to MarchProfit & loss summary (SGDm)Gross RevenueProperty ExpensesNet Property IncomeAsset Management and Trust ExpensesEBITNet Interest ExpenseShare of profit of AssociateIncome Before TaxesIncome Tax ExpenseIncome After TaxNet Investment Income (For Distrib
15、ution)Balance sheet summary (SGDm)Non-current AssetsInvestment propertiesOther non-current assetsTotal non-current assetsCurrent AssetsTrade and other receivablesCash and cash equivalents2013e*143(96)47(67)(20)(10)0(30)(1)(32)3210033010322602014e232(150)81(51)30(15)116(3)13599822910102932015e242(157
16、)85(51)34(15)119(3)166295128978305Gross Asset ValuationOther assetsTotal GAVDebtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesRNAVNo. of units (m)RNAV per share (SGD)ASHT:PBV Chart1.201.15A v g: 1.121.101.05+1 S D: 1 . 1 4- 1 S D: 1. 091,094291,124(401)(69)(470)6548050.81Other current assets333J u l- 1 2S e p -
17、1 2O c t- 1 2N o v -1 2J an- 13Total current assetsTotal AssetsCurrent liabilitiesTrade and other payablesShort term borrowingsOther current liabilitiesTotal current liabilitiesNon-current liabilitiesInterest bearing loans and borrowingsOther PayablesTotal non-current liabilitiesTotal LiabilitiesCas
18、h flow summaryCash generated from operationsCash flows from investing activitiesCash flows from financing activitiesNet change in cash & cash equivalents291,06257035940110411470(8)(60)20(48)351,0456103634231043449775(21)(51)3381,0166403664331144451079(10)(67)2A S HT - P B V+1 s td d e vPriced at clo
19、se of 29 Jan 2013Source: Bloomberg, HSBCASHT performance relative to FSSTI & FSTREI11210810410096Av g-1 s td d e vCash & cash equivalents-at beginning48J u l-1 2S ep- 12O c t- 1 2N ov - 12J an- 13Cash & cash equivalents at-end035Ratio, growth and per share analysisF SST IF ST R EIA S HTYear to March
20、2013e*2014e2015ePriced at close of 29 Jan 2013y-o-y % changeSource: Bloomberg, HSBCRevenueNet Property IncomeIncome After TaxNet Investment Income (For Distribution)Fully Diluted EPUFully Diluted DPUNMNMNMNMNMNM10%18%-129%24%-138%8%5%4%18%4%17%4%*FY13 refers to the period from listing date (27 July
21、2012) to 31 March 2013Ratios (%)EBIT MarginNet Debt/AssetsEBIT/net interest expenseNet debt/EBIT-14%38%-2.0-19.613%40%2.113.914%42%2.212.7Per unit data (cents)EPUFully Diluted EPUDPUFully Diluted DPUDividend yield (%)NMNM4.64.66.9%2.22.27.37.37.4%2.52.57.67.67.7%2VarianceAscendas Hospitality Trust (
22、ASHT SP)Real Estate30 January 2013Results highlightsabcAustralian hotel performanceshould improve in the mediumtermASHT 3QFY12/13 hotel performanceActual ProspectusforecastNPI margins at ASHTs Australian hotelsremained high at over 30%, thanks to better costcontrol and scale advantages (in marketing
23、,procurement, etc) brought about due to Accorassuming management control of six of ASHTsAustralian hotels.AustraliaOccupancy rateAvg room rate (AUD)RevPAR (AUD)ChinaOccupancy rateAvg room rate (CNY)RevPAR (CNY)79.5%16212969.5%54437882.8%16813975.9%491373-3%-4%-7%-6%11%1%Both Novotel Beijing and Aria
24、ke Sunrouteperformed broadly in-line with our expectations.However, contribution from Ariake Sunroute wasnegatively impacted by a weaker JPY duringthe quarter.Source: Company dataASHTs Australian hotels continued tounderperform HSBC as well as prospectusforecasts. RevPAR for the quarter came in atAU
25、D129, significantly short of our AUD139 fullyear forecast. Management attributed the weaknessto a softer domestic economic environment, whichhas translated into slower demand from corporateand government related clients. Additionally, theongoing asset enhancement program has limitedthe hotels abilit
26、y to achieve better rates (due to thenoise and disruption).The AUD30m enhancement program for six ofASHTs seven Australian hotels is scheduled tobe completed by August 2013 (currently between10-75% complete) and we expect performance atASHTs Australian hotels to pick up significantlypost the complet
27、ion of the program. ManagementLooking out for acquisitionsThe acquisition of Ibis Beijing was completed inmid-December 2012, earlier than the late Januarycompletion we had been assuming. Post thisacquisition, we expect China to contribute 8% ofASHTs NPI in FY13/14.Management commented that it is act
28、ivelysourcing for and evaluating acquisitionopportunities in Japan, China, Singapore, HongKong, and South Korea. While Singapore andHong Kong are attractive markets for the trust,valuations remain elevated and as such,acquisitions in these markets will be difficult.Management added that as it makes
29、acquisitions,it would like to target a greater proportion ofmaster leased hotels in the portfolio over themedium to longer term.has estimated that the on average, room rates atthe enhanced Australian hotels can achieveRevPARs, which are 6-7% higher (versus pre-refurbishment RevPARs).3(SGDm)Ascendas
30、Hospitality Trust (ASHT SP)Real Estate30 January 2013Capital management andhedgingManagement is looking to extend its currentweighted average debt maturity of 2.4 years. It isevaluating a variety of instruments (includingMTNs and perpetual preference shares) forrefinancing its current debt.ASHT debt
31、 maturity scheduleabc300250200150277100500162491234Years to m aturitySource: CompanyWith regard to hedging, ASHT will relook at itshedging strategy, particularly after this quartersnegative hit from the fall in the JPY. ASHT iscurrently utilizing a rolling hedge for its foreignsourced income.4Ascend
32、as Hospitality Trust (ASHT SP)Real Estate30 January 2013Valuation and risksabcShare price has outperformedpeersIn the last five months, ASHT has outperformedboth its peers as well as the REIT sector ingeneral. Since September, ASHT is up 11%,outpacing the share price performance of AscottREIT (+9%),
33、 Far East Hospitality Trust (+6%),CDL Hospitality Trusts (-1%), and the FSTREIIndex (+10%) over the same period.Post this strong run, ASHTs valuations lookrelatively less attractive and we see limited furtherupside for ASHT in the near term. The stock istrading at a FY12/13 dividend yield of 6.9% an
34、d a27% premium to stated NAV.ValuationMethodology is a combination ofDDM and RNAV estimateOur valuation methodology is based on a 50:50Relative share price performance between ASHT and peers*1151101051009590weighting of our RNAV and DDM valuation. Weoverlay this with our framework for applyingpremiu
35、ms/discounts to arrive at our target price.Our FY13 RNAV estimate is SGD0.80and DDM valuation is SGD1.25Our FY13 RNAV for ASHT is SGD0.80 (fromSGD0.81) while our two-stage DDM valuation isSGD1.24 (from SGD1.25). Our DDM valuationassumptions remain unchanged with an 8.75%blended cost of equity and a
36、terminal growth rateof 2.25% pa.Target price unchanged at SGD0.98;downgrade to N(V) from OW(V)The average of our DDM-based valuation andestimated FY13 RNAV is SGD1.03 per share.Applying a 5% discount based on ourpremium/discount framework due to ASHTssmaller market cap, we arrive at a 12-month targe
37、t03-Sep-1224-Sep-1215-Oct-1205-Nov -1226-Nov -1217-Dec-1207-Jan-1328-Jan-13ASHTCDREITFEHTARTFSTREISource: Bloomberg*Rebased to 100 as of 3 September 20125Ascendas Hospitality Trust (ASHT SP)Real Estate30 January 2013price at SGD0.98 per unit. Including prospectivedistributions of 7.1SGD cents, this
38、target priceimplies a potential return of 6% for ASHT.Under the HSBC research model, the Neutralrating band for Singapore stocks with a volatilityindicator is defined as the hurdle rate of 9.0%(risk free rate plus risk premium), plus or minus10ppt. As ASHTs potential return is now 6.1%,we downgrade
39、the stock to Neutral (V)from Overweight (V).Potential return equals the percentage differencebetween the current share price and the target price,including the forecast dividend yield when indicated.RisksDownside risksVisitor arrivals and hotel RevPARs have historicallybeen closely linked to the hea
40、lth of theglobal/regional economy. Negative macro or tourismsector related shocks (e.g. terrorism, pandemics, fuelprice spikes, etc.) could result in weaker-than-estimated hotel operating performance.Additionally, ASHT receives its income in avariety of currencies (e.g. AUD, JPY, RMB).Adverse moveme
41、nts in any of these currenciesrelative to the SGD may have a negative impacton ASHTs distributable income.Other downside risks are competition from otherhotels, overpaying for acquisitions and higherinterest rates.Upside risksA strong pickup in ASHTs Australian hotelperformance could result in highe
42、r distributionsand capital values for the trust.Value accretive acquisitions are another upsiderisk. We have not factored in any acquisitions intoour forward estimates.6abcAscendas Hospitality Trust (ASHT SP)Real Estateabc30 January 2013Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s
43、), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that theopinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect theirpersonal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was,
44、 is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Tze Hui, David Choo and Pratik Burman RayImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines an
45、d investment horizons when making investment decisions, whichdepend largely on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations.Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment op
46、portunitiesbased on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon;and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative,technical or event-driven techniques on a
47、0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating.HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below.This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and whenHSBC publi
48、shes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of thiswebsite.HSBC believes an investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstanc
49、es such as the investorsexisting holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each researchreport. In addition,
50、 because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts views, investorsshould carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should notbe used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.Rating definit
51、ions for long-term investment opportunitiesStock ratingsHSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis:For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stocks domestic or, as appropriate,regional market established by our strategy
52、team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stockto reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, thepotential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price an
53、d the target price, including theforecast dividend yield when indicated, must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months(or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must beexpected to und
54、erperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage pointsfor a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any material change (initiation of
55、 coverage, change of volatilitystatus or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review,expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarilytriggering a rating cha
56、nge.7Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-1345%18%N/AAscendas Hospitality Trust (ASHT SP)Real Estateabc30 January 2013*A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12months (unless it is in an industry or sector where v
57、olatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However,stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the pastmonths average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly freq
58、uent changes in rating,however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stocks status to change.Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunitiesAs of 29 January 2013, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows:Overweight (B
59、uy)(29% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)Neutral (Hold)Underweight (Sell)37%(28% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)(23% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunitiesAscendas Hospitality Trus
60、 (ASHP.SI) Share Price performance SGD Vs HSBC Recommendation & price target historyrating history10.90.8FromTarget PricePrice 1Source: HSBCToOverweight (V)Value0.98Date29 August 2012Date29 August 20120.70.60.50.40.30.20.10Source: HSBC81234567891011123Ascendas Hospitality Trust (ASHT SP)Real Estate3
61、0 January 2013HSBC & Analyst disclosuresDisclosure checklistabcCompanyASCENDAS HOSPITALITY TRUSTTickerASHP.SIRecent price0.99Price Date29-Jan-2013Disclosure1, 5Source: HSBCHSBC* has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months.HSBC expects to recei
62、ve or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next3 months.At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by thiscompany.As of 31 December 2012 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of
63、 common equity securities of this company.As of 31 December 2012, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a clientof and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services.As of 31 December 2012, this company was a client of HSBC or had
64、during the preceding 12 month period been a clientof and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services.As of 31 December 2012, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a clientof and/or paid compensation to HSB
65、C in respect of non-securities services.A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months.A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, asdetailed below.A covering analyst/s or a member of his/he
66、r household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of thiscompany, as detailed below.At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or insecurities in respect of this companyAnalysts, economists, and strategists are paid
67、 in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investmentbanking revenues.For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on thatcompany available at HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.Additiona
68、l disclosuresThis report is dated as at 30 January 2013.All market data included in this report are dated as at close 30 January 2013, unless otherwise indicated in the report.HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with itsRes
69、earch business. HSBCs analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Researchoperate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBCs Investment Banking business. Information Barrierprocedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research bu
70、sinesses to ensure that any confidential and/orprice sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.9Ascendas Hospitality Trust (ASHT SP)Real Estate30 January 2013Disclaimer* Legal entities as at 8 August 2012UAE HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; HK The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking C
71、orporation Limited, HongKong; TW HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; CA HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, ParisBranch; HSBC France; DE HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Dsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; IN HSBCSecurities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; JP HSBC Sec
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105、ingapore Branch. MICA (P) 038/04/2012, MICA (P) 063/04/2012 and MICA (P)110/01/201310abcGlobal Financial Institution Group Research TeamCarlo DigrandiGlobal Head of Financial Institutions Research+44 20 7991 BanksEuropeRobin DownAnalyst, Global Sector Head, BanksMichael Chang+852 2996 6555Grace Zhou
106、+852 2822 .hk+44 20 7991 Sinyoung ParkMonica Patrascu+822 3706 +44 20 7991 6828Peter Toeman+44 20 7991 6791Rob Murphy+44 20 7991 Real EstateEuropeJohn Fraser-AndrewsHead of Real Estate Equity Research, Europe+44 20 7991 6732 john.fraser-Iason Kepaptsoglou+44 20 7991 Thomas Martin+49 211 910 3276thom
107、as.martinhsbc.deLorraine Quoirez+44 20 7991 6667 Johannes ThormannGlobal Head of Exchanges+49 211 910 3017 johannes.thormannhsbc.deCEEMEAGyorgy OlahHead of Ceemea Banks Research+44 20 7991 6709 Stphanie Dossmann+33 1 56 52 43 01 AsiaDerek KwongHead of Real Estate Equity Research, Asia+852 2996 6629
108、.hkAshutosh Narkar+91 22 2268 1474 ashutoshnarkarhsbc.co.inAybek Islamov+44 20 7992 3624Tamer Sengun+90 212 376 46 15Jan Rost+27 11 676 4209Latin AmericaVictor Galliano+1 212 525 5253Mariel SantiagoFinancials+1 212 525 5418Felipe Rodrigues+55 11 3847 .brMichelle Kwok+852 2996 6918Phillip Zhong+852 2
109、996 6535Perveen Wong+852 2996 6571Stanley Cheung+852 2822 4395Pratik Burman Ray+65 6658 0611David Choo+65 6658 0612Abel L.sgAsiaTodd DunivantAnalyst, Head of Banks, Asia-Pacific+852 2996 6599 .hkYork Pun+852 2822 4396 .hk+8862 6631 2866Ruth Leung+852 3941 7008CEEMEALevent Bayar+90 212 376 46 .trEric
110、 Mak+852 2996 6585Kathy Park+82 2 3706 8755Sachin Sheth+91 22 2268 1224Tejas Mehta+91 22 2268 1243Kar Weng Loo+65 6658 0621Xiushi Cai+65 6658 0617Bruce Warden+8862 6631 2868I.twCredit ResearchBanks and InsuranceAsiaDilip ShahaniAnalyst, Head of Global Research, Asia-Pacific+852 2822 4520 .hkDevendra
111、n MahendranSovereigns and Financial Institutions+852 2822 4521 .hkNorth AmericaVan HesserGlobal Head of Credit Research, US Banks+1 212 525 3114 Arjun BowryAssociateEuropeKailesh MistryAnalyst, Head of European Insurance+44 20 7991 6756 Dhruv Gahlaut+44 207 991 6728 Steven Haywood+44 207 991 3184 Thomas Fossard+33 1 56 52 43 40 AsiaJames GarnerAnalyst, Head of Asian Insurance+852 2822 .hk+1 212 525 3119Specialist SalesNigel Grinyer+44 20 7991 5386Martin Williams+44 20 7991 5381Juergen Werner+49 211 910 4461Jonathan Weetman+44 20 7991 5939Matthew Robertson+44 20 7991
