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1、Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis GenerationConsulting Skills WorkshopGoals of this moduleLay out a systematic approach to solving business problems “Structured Problem Solving ” Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teamsPractice the suggested process on a real-life example凯捷咨询解
2、决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopDefining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do a
3、nd howDefine the IssuesWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills Works
4、hopHypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problemForm HypothesesDefine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake
5、at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopHypotheses are developed in three stepsWhat are the real stra
6、tegic issues?What is the impact on the organisation?What are the priorities?We think . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be . . . The options could be . . . We believe this to be true . . .A series of statements, not yet backed by dataBased on initial data search or expert opinionsA numbe
7、r of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.Is there a market for white label insurance products?Direct channels are growingRetailers have a strong channel and brandThere are existing productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is l
8、ow cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopA hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impactThink through the
9、se three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:What is the issue?What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage?What do you think causes the issue?What are the key drivers of the process?What is the impact of the issue?How can we tell there is an opp
10、ortunity?Why do we care?“x is anopportunity.”“due to.”“resultingin.”凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopDEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questionsIs ther
11、e a problem or opportunity?If so where does it lie?Why does it exist?What could we do about it?What should we do about it?Fine, but IWIK H2 do this.凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills Workshop“If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there.” -Anony
12、mousWhy problem definition matters凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopIn structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitionsUS Car MarketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFor
13、dGMChryslerBut be careful why does this not work?凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopMutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you impose凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills Worksh
14、opDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one?On target:Answers the core question on the clients mindAccurate:Embraces the entire range of competitive or profit driversMinimal: “Occams razor”Actionable:Can be quantified and testedOn timeGood Hypotheses AreCannot be refut
15、edCannot possibly be quantifiedRequire you to “Boil the Ocean”Are so obvious that nobody can intelligently disagree with itOr look like an abstract model of a process consisting of boxes, arrows and cloudsBad Hypotheses凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopDEVEL
16、OP A HYPOTHESISHow to find a good hypothesisThere are proven processes to generate hypotheses:Talk to lots of people about the core problemHave a brainstorming case team meetingTaguchi method ask “5 Whys” Start with general validity checks for your hypotheses:Assume perfect rationality how ought the
17、 business system to behave?Look for analogies (other industries or problems)Imagine that you had perfect information what would the ideal analysis look like?Try Lateral Thinking:Think about the problem from a different angle凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills Workshop
18、DEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat if your hypothesis is proven wrong?You Win!Hypothesis-driven thinking requires frequent reviews of the prevailing and current hypotheses:Do we still think they are right?Are we making progress towards disproving them?Are they at the right level of generality/predictiveness?H
19、aving proven a hypothesis wrong means you have made a big step towards answering your question!“A wise man sometimes changes his mind, but a fool never.”-Arabic Proverb凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopSummaryTo be developed thank you!凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Capgemini - All rights reserved
