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1、附 录Market Analysis and Forecast of Light Vehicle Transmission 1 Global transmission market status The current global vehicle production increases at an average annual rate of 3.5% per year and is expected to at least 89 million at 2015. With the increase in light vehicle production, manual transmiss
2、ion and planetary gear automatic transmission is also expected to yield increases, but they will be occupied a part of the CVT market share by the AMT. Compared with planetary gear transmission, AMT and the CVT automatic transmission can not only improve the transmission efficiency and decrease prod
3、uction costs, but also can quickly improve the shift quality; so it is expected that AMT will be higher growth rates. CVT applications will be limited to small vehicles, but if the ring IVT technology in practical applications become more mature, reliable and gain market acceptance, it can achieve s
4、trong growth momentum. 2 Transmission Market Analysis and Forecast 2.1 manual transmission (MT)Over the years, Western Europe focus on studying driving control, manufacturing costs and fuel economy and other issues, becoming the largest market for manual transmissions, but it is expected that in the
5、 next 5 years, the market position of the manual transmission will eventually be replaced by Eastern Europe and Asia. However, in whole Europe, the proportion of manual transmission has been on the decline, especially when the AMT gains more market share and the automatic transmission is applied the
6、 small car market and manual transmission in the European new car market share is expected to decrease from 2005 In about 80% to 70% in 2010, about 55% by 2015. At Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), manual transmission market share is expected to decrease from 87% in 2005 down to 85% in 2010 and
7、 drop to 83% in 2015. However, automatic transmission and CVT are very popular in Japan, and manual transmission will lose market share gradually, expecting to decline from the current 22% to 13% in 2010. In North America, the manual transmission market share is expected to continue to decline, from
8、 13% in 2005 down to 11% in 2010, and by 2015 only 10% of the market. In China, India, Pacific Rim and South America, 5-speed manual transmission is expected to continue to occupy most of the market share. Overall, as a slight increase in global automotive production, the global market share of the
9、manual transmission is expected to decline. 2.2 Automatic Transmission (AT)Over the years, the North American car owners are more like driving a car with automatic transmission, and this preference will still continue, despite the recent tend that buying a vehicle with better fuel economy may affect
10、 the automatic transmission market, resulting market share falling. Planetary gear automatic transmission will account for 85% of the market share in 2010, 87% in 2005 but2015 will drop to 83%. In 2010, 5-speed automatic transmission will account for 77% of total transmission, while the market share
11、 of 6-speed transmission will increase, especially the large torque 6-speed transmission. 6-speed automatic transmission is expected to account for 15%20%of the total output of automatic transmission, 50% by 2010. In 2015. 4-speed automatic transmission is expected to disappear from new product by 2
12、010. Due to CVT quickly capture the market, especially in Japan account for a large proportion of small and micro-car segment, automatic transmission has been Japans dominant position in the market for many years. Automatic transmission market share is expected to decrease from 60% in 2005 to 50% in
13、 2010, down to 45% in 2015. New car market has grown rapidly in the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), automatic transmission is expected to increase from 15% in 2005 to 18% in 2010, 22% in 2015. In Europe, the automatic transmission market will be eroded by DCT, from 17% in 2005 down to 16% in 2015 to
14、 14% by 2015. In the March 2007 survey found that 15% of the next European automatic transmission owners planed to buy a car assembled DCT select models, and more than 40% report showed that they would consider models with AMT. According to analysis, the global vehicle production assembled automatic
15、 transmission will soon exceed manual transmission car, but a part of the total amount of the automatic transmission increase in the proportion due to AMT. With the growth of AMT and the CVT, the traditional planetary automatic transmission is expected to be only slightly higher than the 29 million
16、units in 2005, while in 2010 it will surpass 3000 million and in 2015 achieve 33 million units. 2.3 Continuously variable transmission (CVT)CVT in Japan has been in a dominant market position, its market share is expected to continue to grow from about 20% in 2005 to 38% in 2010. In other markets, CVT will only get a certain degree of market acceptance. CVT may be expected to achieve 5% market share in Europe by 2010, but the possibility of achieving that is eve
