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1、How socioeconomic factors influence road crash fatalities in Australia1.IntroductionAsteepdeclineinroadfatalitiesinAustraliawasfoundwithinpastfewdecades.Itisworthwhileinvestigatingcauses，implicationsasitprovidesimportantinsighttoreduceroadfatalities.Theimplementationofalcohollimitlawswasastatistical
2、lyprovenfactorindecreasingroadfatalitiesGaudry，2020.Unemployedpeopleareincapableofbuyingcarsandthushavelessexposuretotrafficaccidents.Anotherfactorisinflationrelatedwithactualcostsofusingmotorvehicles.Transportationhabitsmaychangeduetohighpetrolandservicingcosts.Thisreportexaminestheissueofvehiclefa
3、talitiesfrommacro-viewsofalcohollaws，unemploymentandinflation，whichcontributestopolicymakingunderdynamiceconomy.2.DataAnnualroaddeathsdatafrom1925to2004wasgatheredfromBureauofInfrastructure，TransportandRegionalEconomics2020.ThedependentvariableFATALITIESreferstototalnumberofannualroaddeathspermillio
4、npeople.IndependentvariablesofALCOHOListhepurealcoholconsumptionpercapitawithdatafromAustralianBureauofStatistics2020c；UNEMPLOYMENTisannualAustralianunemploymentratewithdatafromFederalReserveBankofSt.Louis2020；INFLATIONisannualAustraliainflationratewithdatafromAustralianBureauofStatistics2020d.Unitr
5、oottestforstationaritywillbeconductedandreturnedp-valueswillsuggestwhethertorejectthenullhypothesisofnonstationarity.P-valuesalllargerthan0.05fromtestsuggestsnon-stationarity.Thesametestondifferencedvariablesindicatessignificantresultsofstationarity.3.MethodologyandResultsDuetothefailuretofindtheco-
6、integrationbetweenoriginalvariables，firstdifferencedstationaryvariablesareputintoOLSregression.Themodeltoestimaterelationshipbetweendependentandindependentvariablesisasfollow：Standarderror1.2844.9301.5180.676p-value0.0040.0080.0040.0461increasealcoholconsumptionraisesfatalitiesby13.731fatalities.1%i
7、ncreaseinINFLATIONandUNEMPLOYMENTresultin4.6and1.4decreasebyFATALITIES.Findingsconfirmourhypothesesthatalcoholconsumptionhasapositiverelationshipbutinflationandunemploymentratehaveinverserelationshipswithroadfatalities.AlsotheadjustedR2indicatesthatthemodelcanexplain25.33%ofthevariationsin.Therefore
8、havinfoundsignificantcorrelationbetweentheexplanatoryvariablesandroaddeathshasbeenagreatstepforwardinunderstandingthepossiblecausesofroaddeaths.Thiscanassistlegislaturesorotherpolicy-makerswhencreatinganddecidingoneffectivestrategiestolowerthenationalfatalityrate.Thereforethisaddscredibilitythattoou
9、rhypothesis，inthatallvariablesinvestigatedhaveproventobesignificantinexplainingAustraliasroadfatalities.4.ConclusionsTherelationshipbetweenroadfatalitiesandsocio-economicfactorsisnotstraightforwardduetononstationaryvariablesandnoncointegrationbetweenvariables.However，withstationarityoffirstdifferenc
10、edvariables，therelationshipbetweenthechangeinroadfatalityamountandalcoholconsumption，unemploymentandinflationratecanbeconstructedthroughOLSregression.Itwasthenfoundthatthechangeinfatalitiespositivelyrelatedtoalcoholconsumption，butnegativelytounemploymentandinflationrates.Theyprovidesupportiveevidenc
11、etoanswerinitialresearchquestions.Whatsmore，theresultnothasconstructivemeaningsonpolicymakerstoreduceroadfatalities.ItalsosuggestspolicymakersinAustraliatoredirecttheirlegislativefocusonthefactorwithgreaterinfluence.Inthismodel，changeinalcoholismostsignificanttothechangeofvehiclefatalityamounts.Ther
12、efore，itindicatesthatthepriorityshouldbetoreducealcoholconsumption.Unemploymentrateandinflationrateareinvolvedingreaternationalmacroeconomicregulatoryfieldwhichpresentsitsowninherentchallengesinachievingchangeinsuchadynamicsystem.References：【1】AustralianBureauofStatistics.2020.MotorVehicleCensus；App
13、arentConsumptionofAlcohol.【2】BureauofInfrastructure，TransportandRegionalEconomics.2020.AustralianRoadDeathsDatabase.【3】DepartmentofTransportandRegionalServices，AustralianTransportSafetyBureau.2020.【4】FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis.2020.HarmonizedUnemploymentRate：Total：AllPersonsforAustralia.【5】Gaudry，M.2020.Nationalroadfatalitymaxima：whythe1972cluster？.SecuritasVialis，61-3，47-55.【作者簡介】李榴心，北京外国语大学国际商学院。
