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1、浙江工商大学硕士学位论文 老龄化对中国产业结构调整的影响老龄化对中国产业结构调整的影响摘 要在我国，人口老龄化程度在不同省份之有很大的差异。如青海省的经济不发达但老龄化问题严重，而经济发达的地区如上海则因为大量外来劳动力的存在使得老龄化水平降低。从产业发展的角度来看，城市化的推进要求发展高端服务业和高科技医药卫生保健行业以满足日益扩大的老龄群体的消费需求。但是当前我国产业发展尤其是第三产业和高科技产业的发展不能满足这一需要。对于农村而言，劳动密集型的农业产业仍然是农村经济发展的一大支撑，但是大量的青壮年劳动力已经流向了城市，农村老龄化程度骤增。缓解由此产生的经济发展问题要求农业产业的生产集中化
2、和农业产业链的整合，大力提高农产品的产品附加值并节省由于分散作业导致的资源浪费。因此，研究人口老龄化对产业结构调整的影响作用在当前和今后的很长一段时期内是具有深刻意义的。本文在详细介绍和衡量了当前我国的老龄化的现状后，通过收集大量的数据，运用计量工具对回归方程进行拟合，由此来衡量人口老龄化下我国不同省份的产业结构调整受到的不同影响和调整的不同方向，为下一阶段的人口产业政策的制定提供可靠依据。我国产业发展当前所亟需的是一个由经济发展倚重第一、二产业的发展向倚重第三产业的发展、由劳动密集型产业为主导向由技术密集型、知识密集型产业为主导、由低附加值产业向高附加值产业的过渡。根据省际回归结果，人口城市
3、化对于工业发展基础较好的地区如北京和黑龙江等地的第二产业发展产生了负面影响；而对于经济欠发达、工业发展不足或正在飞速发展的地区如内蒙古、云南和安徽等地的第二产业发展起到促进作用。对于第三产业的发展而言，对于工业化进程程度高、工业产值比重明显下降、经济发展较好的北京等地区，城市化的推进有利于第三产业的进一步发展；对于工业化进程的完成程度较低、第三产业产值比相对于第二产业比而言较低的经济较为发达地区，城市化不利于其第三产业发展的继续进行。在经济不发达地区，城市化对其第三产业发展的影响则依具体情况来定。在中国的大部分地区老龄化的加重都对服务业的进一步发展产生了促进作用。人口老龄化促进了中国大部分地区
4、的第二产业和第三产业的发展。关键词：人口老龄化；产业结构调整INFLUENCE ON INDUSTRIAL ADJUSTMENT OF AGING IN CHINAABSTRACTIn China, there are big differences between the inter-provincial population ageing. In many provinces, such as Qinghai province, the economy is not developed but the aging is serious. But aging in developed pro
5、vinces decreases because of the many labors move in from less developed areas. From the point of industrial development, urbanization advancement requires development of high-end services and high-tech medical and health care industry to meet the growing consumer demand of the aged population. But C
6、hinas current industrial development, especially the development of tertiary industries and high-tech industries does not meet this requirement. As for rural, labor-intensive rural industries continued to be a major support to rural economic development, but a lot of labor has been going to the city
7、, which led to a surge in rural aging. It calls for industrial centralization of agriculture and agro-industrial chain integration. Vigorously improving the added value of agricultural products and saving on waste of resources are the directions of the upgrading of the industrial structure in rural
8、areas. Therefore, studying the influence of population ageing on adjustment of the industrial structure is of profound significance for a very long time.After introducing and measuring the current state of urbanization, aging and industry structure, with large collection of domestic data, this paper
9、 uses measurement tools to fit the regression equations, by which compare the influence of population ageing on industrial structure inter-provincial, so as to embody the history, current situation and trend of interaction between population structure and industrial structure, to provide a reliable
10、basis for the formulation of industry and population policy for the next stage.According to the provincial results, for areas in which the industrial development and urbanization are well developed, such as Beijing and Heilongjiang, urbanization had a negative impact on the development of the second
11、ary industry; in regions which lack of industrial development or are fast-growing, such as Inner Mongolia, Yunnan and Anhui, urbanization played a catalytic role. For the development of the tertiary industry, Economically developed regions such as Beijing which have a high degree of industrializatio
12、n and proportion of industrial output decreased significantly, urbanization steps conducive to the further development of the tertiary industry; for provinces who have lower stage of completion of the process of industrialization and services output is not well developed and with lower relative to t
13、he industrial area, urbanization is not conducive to the development of its tertiary industry. For General economically under-developed areas, the influence of urbanization on the development of its tertiary industry relies on the specific circumstances of each region. Aggravation in most of Chinas
14、aging has promoted further development of the service sector. In most area urbanization and population aging plays a catalytic role in the development of the service sector.KEYWORDS: aging population; industrial restructuring目录第一章 绪论1第一节 研究背景和意义1一、研究背景1二、研究意义1第二节 研究目的和内容1一、研究目的1二、研究内容1第三节 可能的创新之处和不足
15、1一、可能的创新之处1二、研究的不足1第二章 文献综述1第一节 老龄化的成因1第二节 老龄化对经济及产业发展的影响1第三节 中国人口老龄化的区域差异1第三章 中国人口老龄化现状研究1第一节 中国老龄化发展过程1第二节 中国老龄化的特点1一、人口年龄结构不规则1二、快速老龄化1三、总抚养比中老年抚养比上升1四、人口老龄化的区域差异大1第四章 老龄化影响产业结构调整的理论研究1第一节 产业结构及其合理化标准1一、产业结构分类及其变动规律1二、产业结构合理化的评价标准1第二节 人口因素与产业结构调整的关系1一、人口是引起产业结构变动的重要因素1二、人口老龄化是影响社会经济结构的重要因素1第三节 人口老龄化对产业结构的影响机制1第五章 老龄化影响产业结构调整的实证研究1第一节 模型设定及变量选取1第二节 面板数据检验及数据来源1第三节 面板数据回归分析1第六章 政策启示和研究小结1第一节 政策启示1一、扶持老年产业1二、重视和优化老年劳动力资源的配置1三、产业政策与其他经济政策配合实施1四、把握老龄化下的产业调整方向1第二节 研究小结1致 谢1参考文献1独 创 性 声 明16第一章 绪论第一节 研究背景和意义一、研究背景根据中国老龄事业发展报告（2013）：我国老年人口数量将在2013年增至2.02亿，老龄化水平至1
