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1、 The next wave in US offshoring The shift in global manufacturing presents tantalizing opportunities for low-cost countries.Ramnath Balasubramanian and Asutosh PadhiRamnath Balasubramanian is a consultant in McKinseys Mumbai office, and Asutosh Padhi is a principal in the Chicago office.-The McKinse
2、y Quarterly, 2005 Number 1For many US manufacturers, the biggest wave of offshoring is yet to come. Our analysis indicates that by 2015, 12 low-cost countries1 could account for nearly half of US manufacturing imports, up from 42 percent in 2002a shift worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Some ind
3、ustries will feel substantial pressure for the first time, and competition will lead many US manufacturers to source products from these countries or even move plants abroad. The following exhibits show where and to what extent these changes will occur.2 The data cover the United States, but we beli
4、eve that these trends apply to other developed markets as well.1 For the purposes of this article, the group consists of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey.2 Import figures are used to measure the effects of outsourc
5、ing.Offshoring rolls onAs the chart shows, wherever conditions for sourcing products from low-cost countries are favorable, manufacturers will follow. Which industries are next? Look to the skill-intensive sectors highlighted in blue. Unlike labor-intensive sectors (such as apparel) or even skill-in
6、tensive ones from the first wave of industries affected by outsourcing to low-cost countries (consumer electronics), this second wave of sectors has thus far seen relatively little competition from countries like China or India. In 2002 only 10 percent of the imports in second-wave sectors such as a
7、uto components and pharmaceuticals came from low-cost countries, although these industries represented 45 percent of the total consumption of manufactured goods by the US economy.Things changeBy our estimates, this new wave of industries will account for nearly half of all US manufacturing imports f
8、rom low-cost countries by 2015, compared with 37 percent in 2002. Three factors are broadly responsible. First, sophisticated supplier bases are emerging to meet the growing demand in sectors such as automotive components. In India, for instance, companies with strong engineering and design capabili
9、ties already draw substantial investment from global carmakers. Next, growth in emerging economies such as China will spur the construction of globally competitive manufacturing capacity there in the power-equipment and telecommunications sectors. Last, regulation plays a part: $20 billion worth of
10、patents expire annually in the US pharmaceutical industry, and Indian drug companies will continue to reengineer their manufacturing processes to bring products to market faster and more cheaply than ever.The shape of things to comeAs imports from low-cost countries skyrocket, the manufacturing land
11、scape could soon look quite different. The challenge for executives is to assess the extent and pace of globalization within their industries and then to reexamine their sourcing and manufacturing strategies in hopes of ferreting out competitive advantages. Global supply-chain-management skills will be crucial, as will the ability to build efficient supplier networks in low-cost countries.
