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1、Structured,to,Survive THEInternationalMonetaryFundsrecentmeetinginTokyofocusedonthecontinuingdeteriorationoftheglobaleconomy.Inthesecondquarterof2012,G7economiesregisteredmere0.1percentgrowthonaverage,whileEUoutputcontracted. Confrontedwiththesedismalstatistics,Westerncentralbankshaverespondedwithac
2、ommonpolicyofmassivemoneycreation.TheU.S.FederalReservelaunchedQE3aUS$40billion(RMB250billion)open-endedpurchaseofmortgage-backedsecurities,tobeconductedmonthly.TheEuropeanCentralBankannouncedanunlimitedprogramofOutrightMonetaryTransactions(OMT)thecreationofmoneytopurchaseEuropeangovernmentbonds.The
3、JapaneseCentralBankintervenedinanattempttolowertheyensexchangerate. Suchmassivemonetaryinjectionsaffecttheglobaleconomyandindividualmarketsalike.MohammedEl-Erian,chiefexecutiveofPIMCO,theworldslargestbondinvestor,hascitedoneriskcreatedbysuchaprocess.“EssentiallytheFedisinsertingasizeablepolicywedgeb
4、etweenmarketvaluesandunderlyingfundamentals.Intheprocess,manyassetpricesarehoveringnearwhatwouldnormallyberegardedasbubbleterritory,withsomealreadythere,”El-Eriansaid. WhetherornotyouagreewithEl-Eriansanalysis,onethingiscertain:Westerncentralbanksareengaginginquantitativeeasingonascaleunprecedentedi
5、nrecentmemory. Centralbanksareresortingtodrasticmonetarypolicytoboosttheireconomiesbecausetheyhavefewoptionsleftinthepolicytoolbox.ThisbringsustooneadvantageofChinaseconomicstructure:thecountryhasmoretools.AstheWallStreetJournalcorrectlyputit:“Mosteconomiescanpulltwoleverstobolstergrowthfiscalandmon
6、etary.Chinahasathirdoption.acceleratetheflowofinvestmentprojects.” Globallyspeaking,themajorlingeringfeatureofthefinancialcrisisislowinvestment.IndevelopedeconomiesallothermajorcomponentsofGDParenowabovepre-crisislevels.FixedinvestmentneverthelessremainsUS$491billionbelowitspeakininflationadjustedte
7、rms.Itistheinabilitytoreversethisfallininvestmentthatparalyzesdevelopedeconomies. Incontrast,Chinas2008stimulusprogram,andthemorelimitedeconomicboostlaunchedinthemiddleofthisyear,tackledthesituationdirectlyviastatedecisionsonincreasinginvestment.AsmanyWesterneconomiesrejectsignificantstateinvestment
8、onideologicalgrounds,theyareforcedtorelypurelyonbudgetaryconsumptionmeasuresandmonetaryexpansion.Whenthefinancialcrisiseruptedin2008almostallWesterneconomiesrespondedbysimultaneouslyintroducingultra-lowinterestratesandexpandingbudgetdeficits,thelatterfinancedviaborrowing.Butthescaleoftheeconomicdown
9、turnmadeitclearthatsuchlargeborrowingwouldhavetocontinueforalongperiodoftime.Runningbudgetdeficitsthatinsomecasesapproachedorexceededdouble-digitpercentagesofGDPwouldthereforehugelyincreasestatedebt.TheIMFslatestWorldEconomicOutlookrightlystressedthatstatedebtintheU.S.,JapanandmanyEuropeancountriesi
10、snowaround,orabove,100percentofGDP. AttheIMFgathering,asharpdebatetookplacebetweenthose,ledbyGermany,whowantrapidbudgetdeficitcuts,andthose,supportedbyIMFManagingDirectorChristineLagarde,whoregardslowerdeficitreductionasalessriskystrategy.ButnomainstreamWesterngovernmentproposedrespondingtothenewglo
11、baldownturnwithmajornewfiscalexpansion.Therefore,ithascometopassthatfiscalpolicyhasbeencastaside;monetarypolicyistheonlypoliticallyacceptableavailabletoolwithwhichtofashionaresponse.Andusingthisonetooltoexcesshasconsequences. MonetaryexpansionhassofarfailedtohalttheslowdowninWesterneconomiesandisact
12、uallycreatingstructuralfinancialproblems.Withprolongedperiodsofextremelylowinterestrates,andwithmoneycreationcontinuingonsuchalargescale,financialdecisionsaredistorted.Anddistortionsleadtobubbles,whichmoreoftenthannotcollapsewheninterestratesareeventuallybroughtbacktohistoricallyaveragelevels. Howdo
13、esthisaffectChina?Oneimmediateriskisinflation.EvenbeforeQE3wasofficiallyannounced,mediaspeculationprecedingitprecipitatedasharpincreaseinglobalcommodityprices.TheDowJonesUBSindexofspotcommoditypricesroseby18percentbetweenJuneandOctober,withevenmorerapidincreasesinkeyfoodpricesfollowingtheadditionali
14、mpactofdroughtintheU.S.TheresultingfoodpricerisesstimulatedsocialunrestintheMiddleEast,SouthAfricaandIndia.AsChinasCPIfollowsworldcommodityprices,Chinaseconomicpolicymustguardagainstinflationaryrisks. HoweverupwardpressureonglobalcommoditypricescreatedbyQE3iscounteredbydownwardpres-sureduetotheworld
15、economicslowdown.Globalcommoditypricesremainninepercentbelowthelevelreachedinearly2011,whentheypropelledChinasCPIto6.5percentinJulyofthatyear.Chinaislimitedinthetypeofexpansionarypoliciesitcanpursueduetothefactthatitmustexercisecaution.Sofar,however,theinternationalsituationdoesnotindicatethatinflat
16、ioninChinaislikelytobecomeanintractableproblem.ThelargequantitativeeasingprogramsbeingconductedbytheU.S.,ECBandJapanposeotherthreats.Partsofthemonetaryexpansionwillinevitablyspillintoothereconomies,includingpotentiallyChinas,aprocessthatthreatenstocreateassetbubbles.Forthisreasonleadinginternationalmonetaryexperts,suchasBarryEichengreen,haveadvisedcountriestostrengthenadministrativecurrencycontrols. Give
