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1、摘 要随着我国经济的飞速发展，房地产业经历了从无序到有序，从狂热到理性的发展过程，目前，我国的房地产业已成为国民经济的支柱性产业。2009 年 4 月,美国次级房贷市场危机爆发，并开始蔓延至全球房地产市场,我国房地产市场也受到了一定影响。同时，我国政府先后出台了多项政策来抑制房地产行业的过度发展，加大对房地产行业的调控力度，一向强势走高的房市也开始出现松动，部分一线城市甚至出现较明显下调趋势。房地产项目可行性研究是分析、计算和评价投资项目的技术方案、开发方案、经营方案的经济效果，研究项目的必要性和可行性，进行开发方案选择与投资方案决策的科学分析方法。它是房地产开发项目投资决策的重要依据。通过对
2、开发项目的全面分析，论证，各方案比较和评价，从而保证它在技术上可行，环境上允许，经济上合理，经济效益显著，减少投资决策的盲目性，使房地产市场健康发展和不断完善。本案以青岛开发区盛世江山房地产项目投资为例，综合采用采用了理论分析与实证分析相结合、宏观分析和微观分析相结合的方法，运用可行性研究的一般理论对项目的投资环境、企业内部因素、项目本身优劣势进行全面分析，通过建立投资项目的可行性目标对投资方案的经济效益、投资不确定性进行科学分析，在此基础之上预测本项目经济上是否合理，财务上是否盈利，从而明确该开发项目是否可行。关键字：房地产项目投资；可行性分析；投资估算；财务评价AbstractWith t
3、he rapid development of Chinas economy, the real estate industry has made vigorous development in this vast land. Experienced from disorder to order, from fanaticism to the rational process of development, at present, Chinas real estate industry has become the pillar industry of the national economy
4、, and its development has entered a phase of the survival of the fittest. In April 2009, US subprime mortgage market crisis broke out and started to spread to the global real estate market. Real estate market in our country must have also been affected by it. At the same time, Chinas government has
5、introduced a number of policies to curb excessive development of the real estate industry, strengthens the regulation of the real estate industry. The strong housing market in our country also is beginning to loosen, and some front-line city even more pronounce downward trend.The feasibility analysi
6、s of real estate projects is an important step in the process of decision- making of real estate development and also is an important basis for real estate development projects. The comprehensive analysis, demonstration, comparison and evaluation of the projects ensure whether it is technically feas
7、ible and environmentally allowable, economically reasonable, cost-effectively significant or not. In the process of real estate development, strengthening the control of index of feasibility analysis can reduce blindness in investment decision-making, enhance the economic benefits of real estate ent
8、erprises and promote the rational use of urban land, so that the real estate market will get healthy development and continuous improvement. environmental benefits, combined methods of the macro-analysis and micro analysis to conduct comprehensive analysis. In this thesis, take Qing Dao sheng shi ji
9、ang shan as example, this project uses the general theory of feasibility analysis to conduct a comprehensive analysis on investment environment, internal factors, advantages and disadvantages of the project itself and the projects market positioning and construction management scheme. On this basis,
10、 it predicts whether the project is economically reasonable, the financially profitable or not, thus it is clear whether the project is feasible to invest or not. Keywords: Investment of Real Estate Projects; Feasibility Analysis;Investment Estimate;Feasibility Index目 录摘 要 IAbstract II1 总论 11.1项目位置
11、11.2项目开发单位 11.3项目承建单位 21.4可行性研究报告编制的依据 21.5可行性研究的内容 32 项目提出的背景与概况 42.1项目简介 42.2项目建设条件 42.3项目评价的基本指标 53 宏观市场分析 73.1社会经济发展状况 73.2房地产市场概况 103.3关于房地产行业未来发展的预期 244 区域市场分析 264.1区域市场总体评价264.2项目周边状况 294.3本项目分析374.4 SWOT分析 394.5项目价值网 425 建设规划方案 435.1 地块概况 435.2 项目开发方案 435.3 建筑规模与产品方案 476 投资估算及财务评价586.1投资成本费用
12、估算 586.2 项目销售收入估算 636.3 项目投资计划和资金筹措 736.4 财务评价 797 不确定性分析 87 7.1 盈亏平衡分析 87 7.2 敏感性分析 898 研究结论与建议 958.1可行性研究结论 958.2 相关建议 95参考文献97致 谢 99附 录 1001总 论1.1项目位置盛世江山高层住宅项目拟建于山东省青岛市经济技术开发区江山南路与富春江路交汇处，雄踞“环湾保护、拥湾发展”战略核心区位，紧邻“唐岛湾旅游度假区”和“珠山国家森林公园”两处不可复制的景观资源，距离唐岛湾旅游渡假区的海上嘉年华步行只需15分钟。图1-1 盛世江山高层住宅项目位置图项目所在区域是江山南
13、路片区未来的商业中心区域，西侧富春江路与峨眉山路附近规划有大型购物中心，规划引进国内国际知名的零售大卖场。同时，江山南路以东规划有城市景观河，公园等绿化生态系统，盛世江山片区将发展成为集生态，居住和商业于一体的国际人居示范区。1.2 项目开发单位1.2.1单位名称：青岛城市经营开发有限公司1.2.2单位地址：青岛经济技术开发区江山南路卓亭广场666号C座21层1.2.3公司简介：青岛城市经营开发有限公司成立于2003年8月，是青岛开发区管委直属的国有全资公司。主要经营范围是：城市基础设施建设、房地产开发经营；受托管理国有资产、国有股权；设计、制作、代理、发布国内广告业务等。公司成立五年来，坚持走品牌发展之路，已开发
