《经济学家：亚洲应从越南危机中吸取教训.doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《经济学家：亚洲应从越南危机中吸取教训.doc（3页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、经济学家：亚洲应从越南危机中吸取教训2008-06-26 00:00:00提要：在高通胀的重压下，越南的投资者信心在几个月之内出现了罕见的大起大落，从而导致其股市连续暴跌、房价大幅下挫，并引发市场对该国银行业前景的忧虑。另一方面，离岸市场的越南盾期货价格表明，市场预期一年之内越南盾还有30%的下跌空间。为应对困境，政府对市场采取了多项限制性举措，但这些措施将使形势进一步恶化。越南的难题及时提醒人们，通胀有可能在短时间内失控，并迅速导致信心崩溃。对此，亚洲各国决策者都应引以为戒。 （外脑精华北京）信心崩溃导致股市暴跌、房价下挫 即使是在市场常常出现剧烈震荡的亚洲，越南投资者信心的大起大落也是罕见
2、的。几个月之前，投资者还处于极度乐观状态；而今，却陷入极度悲观之中。近年来，胡志明股市曾是亚洲最强势的股市之一；而今，却在超过25%的高通胀率的重压下继续暴跌。起初，越南政府担心的是越南盾的升值压力；现在，他们却在担心越南盾出现急剧贬值。一些经济学家担心，越南的困境可能会扩散到其他通胀水平达到警戒线的亚洲国家。日前，越南央行宣布将越南盾贬值2%，以图缓解其承受的压力。此外，央行还将其基准利率由12%上调至14%。这些举措虽然力度不大，却对越南股市构成了短暂的支撑，此前股市已经连续下跌了25个交易日。尽管如此，离岸越南盾期货市场的价格表明，市场预期一年之内越南盾还有30%左右的下跌空间。事实上，
3、越南经济的明显过热迹象已经持续了几个月之久。今年15月，越南的贸易赤字就突破了140亿美元，与2007年全年的赤字总额不相上下。近期，越南房价也像股市一样大幅下挫。这引发了市场对于该国银行业前景的忧虑，因为其银行业发放的贷款有很大一部分投入了这两类资产的投机活动。据认为，越南政府已经向一些小银行提供了谨慎的流动性支持。国民囤积黄金以应对通胀 不过，虽然存在上述种种问题，外国投资者仍将越南视为“下一个中国”，真正感到悲观的是越南人自己。而且，由于旧日超高通胀时期的痛苦经历，越南人非常担心再次出现超高通胀。已经有迹象表明，越南国民正在争相囤积黄金。荷兰国际集团驻新加坡的经济学家Tim Condon
4、指出，尽管今年14月越南已经进口了43吨黄金，但胡志明市的黄金交易价仍然大大超过国际价位。限制性举措有可能令形势恶化 目前，越南政府对汇市上美元的卖出实施了限制，以遏制汇率投机活动。据称，为了减少进口，政府仅允许央行向获其批准、可以进口外国产品（如资本品）的企业出售美元。然而，这种举措或许会迫使需要美元而无法获批的人转向黑市或海外市场，从而进一步损害官方汇率的信誉。本次央行加息之后，越南的实际利率仍为负值。另一方面，政府出台了一项愚蠢的法律，将基准利率的1.5倍定为银行贷款利率的上限。这项限制几乎使银行贷款陷于停滞，而银行贷款的停滞则增大了经济硬着陆的风险。正如荷兰银行驻新加坡的经济学家Dom
5、inique Dwor-Frecaut所说，越南政府应该让市场决定信贷价格。更糟的是，越南政府已经不再及时公布银行体系和外汇储备的数据了。据传言，虽然政府在努力支持越南盾，但其外汇储备已经远远少于去年12月底的230亿美元了。荷兰国际集团专家Condon表示，官方停止公布数据只会让人们想到最坏的情况。越南困境的警示意义 当前越南的困境是否预示着其他亚洲经济体的麻烦呢？对于这个问题，乐观者的回答是否定的。他们认为，越南的通胀率可望在今年晚些时候触顶回落，政府的应对举措可望使银行贷款和进口回归合理的水平，而越南盾的小幅贬值可望使缓解其承受的压力。而且，据IMF估算，越南的经常项目赤字高达其GDP的
6、13%，是亚洲赤字比重最大的国家之一。这意味着，其汇率难题在亚洲只是个别现象。尽管如此，越南的难题还是及时提醒了人们，通胀有可能在很短的时间内失控，并迅速导致信心崩溃。对此，亚洲各国决策者都应引以为戒。英文原文：Flu symptomsIs dangerous overheating contagious? EVEN by the standards of Asias booms and busts, the turnaround in Vietnamese investors sentiment has been remarkable, veering from wild optimism
7、a few months ago to deep pessimism today. Surging inflationit is now over 25% year-on-yearhas aggravated a slump in the Ho Chi Minh City stockmarket, previously one of Asias most bracing （see chart）. From worrying about upward pressure on the dong, the authorities now fear a currency collapse. Some
8、economists worry this could spill over to other Asian countries where inflation is also reaching alarming levels.The central bank has announced a 2% devaluation, hoping to relieve the pressures on the currency. It also raised its base interest rate from 12% to 14%. The moves, however meek, briefly s
9、upported the stockmarket, which had fallen for 25 trading days in a row. But offshore trading in dong futures is pricing in a further devaluation of around 30% within a year.It has been clear for months that Vietnams economy is overheating. The trade deficit from January to May was over $14 billion,
10、 about the same as for all of 2007. Like the stockmarket, property prices have tumbled, leading to fears about the countrys banks, which lent heavily for speculation in both assets. The government is already thought to be providing discreet liquidity support to a dozen small banks. For all these con
11、cerns, foreign investors still see Vietnam as the next China. It is the Vietnamese who are gloomy, and fears of hyperinflation run deep after some bruising encounters in the past.Already, there are signs that people are hoarding gold. Tim Condon, an economist at ING in Singapore, notes that although
12、 Vietnam imported 43 tonnes of gold in the first four months of this year, the precious metal is trading in Ho Chi Minh City at a big premium to the international price.Meanwhile, the government is trying to curb currency speculation by restricting foreign-exchange booths from selling dollars. To re
13、duce imports, it is said to be allowing the central bank to sell dollars only to businesses that have its approval for their foreign purchases （such as buying capital goods）. This, however, may push others towards the black market or offshore, further undermining the credibility of the official exch
14、ange rate.Despite the recent increases, real interest rates remain negative. Meanwhile, a daft law bans banks from pricing loans at more than 150% of the base rate and this has all but stopped lending. That, in turn, has increased the risk of a hard landing, says Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, an economist
15、 at ABN AMRO in Singapore: better to let the market set the price of credit.To make matters worse, the government has stopped publishing timely figures on the banking system and foreign reserves. Word is that the reserves are not far short of the $23 billion-worth the country had in December, despit
16、e its efforts to shore up the currency. But the absence of official figures makes people think the worst, says Mr Condon.Could Vietnams difficulties be a harbinger of trouble elsewhere in Asia? The optimists say no, arguing that inflation could peak later this year, the governments measures could restore lending and imports to sensible levels and a moderate devaluation coul
