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1、述新古典增长模型及其对发展中国家经济增长的借鉴意义。 鉴于哈罗德多马模型得出了经济不稳定的结论。经济学家在各个方面对其进行了修正。索洛等人创立的新古典增长模型就是其中最为重要的一例。新古典增长模型主要包含以下假定：（1）全社会使用劳动和资本两种生产要素只生产一种产品；（2）劳动与资本之间可以相互替代，但并不能完全替代；（3）生产的规模收益不变；（4）储蓄率，即储蓄在收入中所占的比重保持不变；（5）不存在技术进步，也不存在资本折旧；（6）人口按照一个固定速度增长。利用人均生产函数的形式y=f(k)，新古典增长模型可以概括为：sf(k)+nk式中：k为人均资本占有量；s为储蓄率；n为人口（或劳动力
2、）增长率，k为单位时间内人均资本的改变量。上述模型表明，一个经济社会在单位时期内（如1年）按人口平均的储蓄量被用于两个部分：一部分为人均资本的增加k，即为每一一个人配备更多的资本设备；另一部分是为新增加的人口配备按原有的人均资本配备nk。第一部分称为资本的深化，而后一总值发则称为资本的广化。基于上述模型，新古典增长理论认为，当社会的人均储蓄大于为新增人口配备资本仍有剩余时，即sf(k)nk，每个人都可以继续增加人均资本量，即k0；相反，则人均资本占有量减少。这表明，经济中自发的作用将使人均资本量维持在k=0的水平上。此时，经济会因为劳动力的增加而稳定增长。因此，新古典增长模型得出的结论是，经济
3、可以处于稳定增长的状态，其增长率为人口增长率，如图215所示。新古典增长模型也具有明显的政策含义。从图215中可以看出，实现人均产出量增加有三种途径。（1）在人均资本占有量既定的条件下提高技术水平，从而增加总产出。（2）提高储蓄率，使得人均资本量增加。（3）降低人口出生率。这些对于发展中国家提高经济增长速度都具有一定借鉴意义。参考资料：http:/ growth model for emerging markets essay Clear statementSupported argumentProper use of graphsPreper citationAfter reading th
4、e article on page 724, you will be required to choose one of there three emerging countries to write about (Malaysia, indonesia or the Philippines)and based on the information from the interwiew, class notes and a minimum of five external sources, decide which economic growth model is best for your
5、country of choice.The paper should be include the nessary graphs to support your model.经济增长模型对新兴市场的文章明确的声明支持的论点正确使用图正确的引用阅读文章后在724页，你将被要求选择一个有三个新兴国家写（马来西亚，印度尼西亚和菲律宾）和信息的基础上从访谈形式，课堂笔记和至少五个外部来源，决定选择最适合你国家的经济增长模式。文章应该包括必要的图表来支持你的模型。Most of your work has been on business cycles and other high-frequency
6、phenomena. Can you begin by reviewing the costs of recessions? robert lucas says that postwar U.S. recessions have cost very little.Do you agree?你的大部分工作已出现商业周期和其他高频现象。你可以通过审查经济衰退的成本开始了么？罗伯特卢卡斯说，战后美国经济衰退的成本很小。你同意吗？No but Im not sure robert lucas was really trying to say that. My sense is that he was
7、trying to push the profession to focus a bit more on long-run growth issues. Putting down the costs of recessions was a useful debating device to make his important point.不但我不确定罗伯特卢卡斯是那个意思。我的感觉是，他试图推动行业去更多地关注长期增长问题。减少经济衰退的成本是一个有用的辩论策略才是他的重点。I believe that the statement that recessions are not costly
8、 is incorrect. First, I think his calculation of this magnitude reflects some fundamental flaw in the way the workhorse models we use in economics fail to account for the costs of risk and volatility. This flaw shows up in many different puzzle in economics, including the well-known equity premium p
9、uzzle. Economic models underestimate, by an order of magnitude, how unhappy agents are about facing uncertainty. Second, it is highly unlikely that recessions and medium-term growth are completely separable. In particular, the ongoing process of restructuring, which is central to productivity growth
10、, is severly hampered by deep recessions.我相信，经济衰退不昂贵的陈述是不正确的。首先，我认为他对这一规模的计算反映了一些根本的缺陷在这种我们用的主力车模型，在经济学无法计算风险和波动性的成本。这一缺陷出现在许多不同的经济学难题中，包括著名的股权溢价之谜。对经济模型估计不足，由一个数量级，代理人面对不确定因素是如何不幸。其次，经济衰退和中期增长是完全分开是极不可能的。特别是，目前的改革进程是中央对生产率增长，严重阻碍了经济衰退。Recessions are costly because they waste enormous resources, aff
11、ect physical and human investment decisions, have large negative distributional consequences, influence political outcomes, and so on.经济衰退是昂贵的，因为他们浪费大量的资源，影响身体和人类的投资决策，有很大的负面的分配后果，影响政治的结果，等等。What about the costs of recessions in other parts of the world,especially latin america?经济衰退的费用在世界其他地区怎么样，特别是
12、美国的？The cost of recessions grows exponentially with their size and the countrys inability to soften the impact on the most affected. Less developed economies suffer much larger shocks beause their economise are not well diversified, and they experience capital out-flows that exacerbate the impact of
13、 recessionary shocks. Their domestic financial sectors are small and often become strained during recessions, making it difficult to reallocate scarce resources toward those who need them the most.衰退成本呈指数增长的规模和国家无力使大多数影响的冲击力软化。不发达经济体受到更大的冲击，因为它们的经济不是多样化的，而且他们的经验资本出流，加剧的了衰退的冲击力对其的影响。他们国内金融部门很小，往往在衰退的
14、时候变得紧张，因此很难分配稀缺的资源给那些最需要的人。To make maters worse, the governments ability to use fiscal policy is also out of the question when the currency is in free fall and liabilities are dollarized. There are many things that we take for granted in the United States that simply are not feasible for emerging markets in distess. One has to be careful with extrapolating too directly the countercyclical recipes used for developed economise to these countries.更为糟糕的是，当货币自由落体和负债美元化时政府利用财政政策的能力也出现了问题。我们在美国理所当然做的很多事情对于在痛苦中的新兴市场根本是不可行。有一点需要注意，反周期的配方用于这些国家的经济
