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1、中国房价趋势是社会情势所使然Trend of real estate prices in China: the result of the social circumstances 目前中国房价的态势：正在走下行通道Real estate prices in China：heading downward 谢国忠谈房价，称泡沫已破Andy Xie ： Chinas property bubble burst2012年房价将进入第二波下跌2012 will see second wave of decline in asset prices2012 will see the second dip
2、looming in asset prices Then and NowHarold NicolsonDuring the 25 years which have intervened between the First and Second German Wars that is, between the night of 4 August 19141 and the morning of Sunday, 3 September 19392 I have often asked my friends to tell me in what way, and in what manner, th
3、ey first became aware that Great Britain was at war. There had, on each occasion, been a preliminary stage during which war seemed to become every hour more inevitable; on each occasion, there had been announcements in the newspapers and speeches in the House of Commons; but what interested me parti
4、cularly was to hear stories of the actual moment at which any given individual became conscious that we had passed from the sunlight of peace into the night of war. I think that it will be of interest to every one of us hereafter, whether we keep a diary or not, to note down upon a sheet of paper th
5、e actual circumstance which made him or her realize that this terrific episode3 had begun, and to record the exact time and hour when he or she experienced that circumstance.彼时，此时第一次英德战争到第二次英德战争爆发的25年里即，从1914年8月4日晚到1939年9月3日的周日早上这段时间我常问朋友们他们是以何种途径、方式最先觉察到英国在参战。每一次，都有一个准备阶段，此时战争似乎每时每刻变得越来越不可避免，每一次，在下
6、议院中各种报纸和演讲中总会公告不断。但是使我特别感兴趣的还是听真正时刻到来时的报道，任何特定人士开始清醒地意识到我们已经失去了和平的阳光进入战争之夜。我想从今以后，无论我们是否有记日记的习惯，对我们所有人而言，如果能记下使他或她意识到这恐怖的事件已经开始的真实情况，并记录下他或她经历事件时的确切时间都会非常有意思。Diplomatic documents, however dramatically exchanged, do not constitute ocular evidence that war has begun. Street demonstrations and press no
7、tices are mass experiences and not individual. It interests me to ascertain what personal experience was the first to convince any given citizen that we had, in fact, placed ourselves upon a war basis.无论外交文件怎样戏剧性地交换，其中也未包含亲眼目睹到的开战证据。街头游行示威与新闻通告为集体行为，而非三三两两的个人经历。是什么样的个人经历首先使任何特定人士相信其实我们已经置身于战乱之中了，我很有
8、兴趣确定这个问题。In August 1914, I made a careful note of my own experiences in this respect. The first sign of war that I observed occurred when I was in a train coming up from Kent to London. Somewhere in Lewisham,5 there had long been established some Territorial battery6 which housed a gun in a shed clo
9、se to the railway line. There was a patch of grass in front of this shed, and, as the train passed close to it, I noticed that the grass had been churned up by heavy wheels. I realised that the gun had, earlier that morning, been taken out of its shed. That was the first ocular demonstration of mili
10、tary action. When I reached London, I passed an army lorry in Belgrave Square7 packed with little ordnance maps.8 That was my second piece of evidence. And, within a few short hours, the evidences accumulated so rapidly that they made no further impress on my mind.1914年8月，我在这方面认真地对自己的经历做了记录。在从肯特到伦敦的
11、火车上，我观察到了战争的最初征兆。在路易斯的某个地方，长期以来在靠近铁道的一间炮舍里，地方炮兵连一直存放着一门大炮。在炮舍前有一块草地，火车穿行靠近此地时，我注意到草皮被重重的车轮碾得都翻了起来。我明白早在这个清晨之前，那门炮已经被运送了出去。那是我亲眼看到的第一条军事行动证据。抵达伦敦时，在贝尔格雷夫广场我经过一个载满小型军械署地图的军用卡车。那是我的第二条证据。仅仅在几个小时内，证据接踵而至，我再也无暇顾及了。This time, my experience was far more dramatic. It was one which was shared by many of my f
12、ellow countrymen. Only a few minutes after listening to the prime ministers broadcast address on Sunday9 I walked down with one or two friends to my place of business; and, while I was walking through the streets, the sirens warbled around us. I was only a very little distance from a place in which,
13、 I knew, I should both find refuge and be able to fulfill my functions. The question arose whether, as a most obedient citizen, I should seek refuge immediately in the nearest basement or refuge, or whether, as a conscientious worker, I should defy regulations and make for my place of business. On c
14、onsideration, I decided that my own air-raid refuge would be preferable. My duty as a worker triumphed for this reason over my civic conscience and, with hurried although not, I trust, undignified steps, I escaped across Parliament Square.这一次，我的经历更是惊心动魄。许多国人都由此同感。周日，听完首相的广播演讲仅几分钟后，我与一两个朋友同行前往我办公的地方。
15、穿过街道的时候，警报声在我们周围突然响了起来。我距办公地近在咫尺，我知道在这个地方我应该既能躲避危险，又可履行我的职责。问题是，作为一个最顺从的公民，我是否应该在最近的地下室或者避难处立即避难，或者说，作为一个尽责的工作者，我是否应该无视指令，继续前往办公地。稍加思考后，我确定自己的空袭避难所是更好的选择。因此，我作为一名工作者的职责战胜了公民的服从。而后我迈着急匆匆（但是我相信）并未有失尊严的步子穿过国会广场离开了。That, I think, will for all of us remain the great difference between 1914 and 1939. The
16、First German War was made manifest to me by seeing some grass trampled by the wheels of a Territorial gun; the Second German War intruded itself upon my consciousness owing to the necessity of my having to seek shelter rapidly some 30 minutes after war had been declared. It is essentially a difference between gradualness and urgency. We lolled and slouched into the First German War; the Second has found us infinitely more prepared.从1914年到1939年这段时
