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1、Compilation of the GSHAP regional seismic hazard for Europe, Africa andthe Middle East欧洲、非洲和中东的GSHAP (全球地震风险评估计划)区域地震风险汇编G. Grunthal, C. Bosse (GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Germany),S.Sellami, D. Mayer-Rosa & D. Giardini (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)Keywords: seismic hazard assessment, earthquakes, Eur
2、ope, Africa, Middle EastAbstractThe seismic hazard map of the larger Europe-Africa-Middle East region has been generated as part of the global GSHAP hazard map. The hazard, expressing Peak Ground Acceleration expected at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, is obtained by combining the results
3、 of 16 independent regional and national projects; among these is the hazard assessment for Libya and for the wide sub-Saharan Western African region, specifically produced for this regional compilation and here discussed to some lenght. Features of enhanced seismic hazard are observed along the Afr
4、ican Rift zone and in the Alpine-Himalayan belt, where there is a general eastward increase in hazard with peak levels in Greece, Turkey, Caucasus and Iran.IntroductionThe compilation of the GSHAP global seismic hazard map, planned to be one of the main products of the program, is based on the integ
5、ration of all results from GSHAP Regions and Test Areas in three greater GSHAP areas: (1) the Americas (North, Central and South), (2) Asia, Australia and Oceania, and (3) Europe, Africa and the Middle East. This report deals with the generation and compilation of the different seismic hazard data a
6、nd the homogeneous mapping of hazard in the greater area (3) Europe, Africa and the Middle East, conducted by the GFZ Potsdam.According to the original GSHAP planning (Giardini, 1999), the Europe-Africa-Middle East area was to be covered by the GSHAP Regions (3) Central-Northern Europe, (4) Mediterr
7、anean, (5) sub-Saharian Africa, (6) Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula, and (7) Northern Eurasia (western portion only). However, the development of GSHAP in the Mediterranean and Middle East became more complex, and had to rely on the activation on a number of ad-hoc regional test areas (Ibero-M
8、aghreb, ADRIA, Eastern African Rift, CAUCAS; see below) and of independent but related projects (RELEMR, CirPan, Turkey; see below). In addition, for the super-regional compilation, specific national hazard maps were introduced in areas of pronounced border discrepancy (Slovenia, Greece) and a speci
9、al effort was conducted at ETH Zurich to compile the hazard for those areas of Africa with no available maps.In keeping with the approach of the GSHAP global map compilation, only the hazard maps were used, expressing Peak Ground Acceleration expected at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, an
10、d no attempt was done to integrate the different models of seismic sourcezones.Compilation of Regional Seismic HazardsIn the end, altogether 16 independent regional maps were collected, modified and integrated at GFZ Potsdam in order to produce a homogeneous hazard for the global map. The geographic
11、al extent of these different contributions to the greater GSHAP area is shown in Figure 1. Reports on most of the individual projects are included in this volume, and only a few comments are given here, with the exception of the hazard results for Western Africa, Libya and the Middle East, which are
12、 presented here for the first time. Therefore, these two areas are dealt with in detail. A brief description of the editing and compiling process is given below.The numbering used in the following list corresponds to the area identification in Figure 1. It should be noted that in most cases consider
13、able overlaps existed among different areas. This redundancy allowed to produce independent assessment of methodologies across boundaries and to obtain a smoothed mapping in agreement with several regional projects.1. Central EuropeThis vast area, including the United Kingdom, Ireland and the German
14、 speaking countries, has been compiled as the main part of the GSHAP Region 3. It also includes Southern France (south of 44N), which was not originally included in Region 3 nor in the Ibero-Maghreb program (cf. 9. below) and which has been processed at GFZ (Grunthal et al., 1999).2. IcelandPart of
15、the GSHAP Region 3 (Grunthal et al., 1999).3. FennoscandiaPart of the GSHAP Region 3 (Grunthal et al., 1999).4. Northern EurasiaGSHAP Region 7 (Ulomov et al., 1999).5. Poland-Czech Rep.-SlovakiaPart of the GSHAP Region 3 (Grunthal et al., 1999).6. Balcans north of Greece and northerly adjacent regio
16、ns (cf. 10.)CirPan project (Musson, 1999).7. SloveniaThe national seismic hazard map for Slovenia was provided by Zabukovec (1998, personal communication), to improve the fit between the regional hazard maps.8. ItalyProcessed as the main part of the ADRIA GSHAP test area (Slejko et al., 1999).9. Ibero-MaghrebGSHAP test area (Jimenez et al., 1999).10. GreeceGreece participated in the ADRIA test area, which covered only part o
