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1、 Power system load forecasting methods and characteristics ofAbstract: The load forecasting in power system planning and operation play animportant role, with obvious economic benefits, in essence, the electricity loadforecasting market demand forecast. In this paper, a systematic description andana
2、lysis of a variety of load forecasting methods and characteristics and that goodload forecasting for power system has become an important means of modern management.Keywords: power system load forecasting electricity market constructionPlanning1.Introduction Load forecasting demand for electricity f
3、rom a known starting to consider thepolitical, economic, climate and other related factors, the future demand for electricityto make predictions. Load forecast includes two aspects: on the future demand (power) projections and future electricity consumption (energy) forecast. Electricity demandproje
4、ctions decision generation, transmission and distribution system, the sic ofnew Capacity; power generating equipment determine the type of prediction (.such aspeaking units, base load units, etc. Load forecasting purposes is to provide load conditions and the level ofdevelopment, while identifying t
5、he various supply areas, each year planning for thepower consumption for maximum power load and the load of planning the overalllevel of development of each plan year to determine the load composition.2. load forecasting methods and characteristics of2.1 Unit Consumption Act Output of products in ac
6、cordancewith national arrangements, planning andelectricity intensity value to determine electricity demand. Sub-Unit Consumption Act;Product Unit Consumption; and the value of Unit Consumption Act; two. Theprojection of load before the key is to determine the appropriate value of the productunit co
7、nsumption or unit consumption. Judging fromChinas actual situation, thegeneral rule is the product unit consumption increased year by year, the output valueunit consumption is declining. Unit consumption method advantages arc: The methodis simple, short-torn load forecasting effective. Disadvantages
8、 arc: need to do a lot ofpainstaking research work, more general, it is difficult to reflect modern economic,political and climate conditions.2.2 Trend extrapolation When the power load in accordance with time-varying present same kind ofupward or downward trend, and no obvious seasonal fluctuations
9、, but also to find asuitable function curve to reflect this change in trend, you can use the time t asindependent variables, timing value of y for the dependent variable to establish thetrend model y = f (t). When the reason to believe that this trend will extend to thefuture, we assigned the value
10、of the variable t need to, you can get the correspondingtune series ofthe future value of the moment. This is the trend extrapolation.Application of the trend extrapolation method has two assumptions: (1) assumingthere is no step Change in load; (2)assume that the development of load factors alsodet
11、ermine the future development of load and its condition is unchanged or changedlittle. Select the appropriate trend model is the application of the trend extrapolationan important part of pattern recognition method and finite difference method is toselect the trend model arc two basic ways.A linear
12、trend extrapolation forecasting method, the logarithmic trend forecasting method, quadratic curve trend forecasting method, exponential curve trend forecastingmethod, growth curve of the trend prediction method. Trend extrapolation methodsadvantages arc: only need to historical data, the amount of d
13、ata required for less. Thedisadvantage is that: If a change in load will cause large errors.2.3 Elastic Coefficient Method Elasticity coefficient is the average growth rate of electricity consumption toGDP ratio of between, according to the gross domestic product growth rate of coefficient of elasti
14、city to be planning with the end of the total electricityconsumption. Modules of elasticity law is determined on power development from amacro with the relative speed of national economic development, which is a measureof national economic development and an important parameter in electricity demand
15、.The advantages of this method arc: The method is simple, easy to calculate.Disadvantages arc: need to do a lot of detailed research work.2.4 Regression Analysis Method Regression estimate is based on past history of load data, build up amathematical analysis of the mathematical model. Of mathematic
16、al statisticsregression analysis of the variables in statistical analysis of observational data in orderto achieve load to predict the future. Regression model with a linear regression,multiple linear regression, nonlinear regression and other regression predictionmodels. Among them, linear regression for the medium-torn toad forecast. Advantages arc: a higher prediction accuracy for the medium
