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1、War and Peace Between America and ChinaAn Economic and Political Analysis of the Taiwan Problem Terence Kwai*Chan Hon-Wing*_*We are indebted to the Center for Economic Development of the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology for supporting the research for this book.ContentsPrefacei vIntroduc
2、tion1 19Chapter 1:The Worst-Case Scenario20 392:From High-Tech Warfare to Nuclear Winter40 673:The Next Economic Earthquake68 854:If Yes to German Reunification, Why Not Chinese Reunification?86 995:Ancient Chinese Wisdom: Winning Without Fighting100 1296:Chinas Long March Toward Democracy130 1597:B
3、lessed Are the Peacemakers160 1868:Realizing the China Dream187 2289:Chinese Reunification and Chinas Third Way229 26910:Toward A Pacific Century270 295Epilogue 296 298Bibliography299 304About the Authors305Notes306 308PrefaceThe Taiwan Strait is probably the most dangerous place on Earth. Some info
4、rmed people may disagree. They may point to the continued trouble in the Middle East and the persistent threat of terrorists. However, nowhere in the world is as dangerous and potentially devastating as the Taiwan Strait.Most Chinese, irrespective of the differences in their political beliefs, want
5、to see Chinese reunification within their lifetimes. Chinese reunification may be postponed for one decade or another but it is seen by many as the ultimate conclusion to the century of humiliation that China suffered at the hands of European and Japanese imperialism and colonialism. Presently, many
6、 Americans are becoming aware of the rise of China. Their media are beginning to have more substantial and objective reports on China. The image of China carried over by the June 4, 1989 incident at Tiananmen Square is gradually replaced by an image of a modern open economy which is developing at a
7、sustained annual rate of 9 percent for more than 25 years. Americans want to benefit from this sustained economic growth, but they also wish to see peace and stability in the Pacific region. Furthermore, they wish to see human rights respected and upheld in China.At the same time, Americans are unsu
8、re how they should deal with the thorny issues of Chinese reunification. Through consistent and persistent public relations campaigns, Taiwan has instilled among American politicians and the American public the image that Taiwan is good and the Peoples Republic of China is bad. Human rights activist
9、s and religious leaders also depict the PRC as ugly as well. So we do have the good, the bad and the ugly.The American government is fully aware of the problems arising from the demand of a sizeable group of Taiwanese people to have a permanent separate entity from mainland China. Americans hope tha
10、t the problems can be resolved with time. Hence, they hope that both sides of the Taiwan Straits would not seek unilateral change of the status quo. This amounts to the very ambiguous situation which translates simply and directly into: no war, no peace, no unification and no independence. During no
11、rmal times, such ambiguity may be the wisest choice for the American government. However, we are living in an uncertain world. In this uncertain world, anything can happen and can overwhelm us by surprise. No matter what contingency plans are made, Americans and Chinese may be caught by surprise. We
12、 can travel back in time to the events leading to the outbreak of the First World War, when the two opposite alliances did not believe that a war could happen. Still the war came about because of the assassination of a nobleman in Austria. Millions of lives were lost during this war. Furthermore, th
13、e sheer tragedies of this war led directly to another even more devastating war, the Second World War.In an uncertain world, enlightened leadership is called for to reduce all possible uncertainties. One way is to achieve Chinese reunification at an earlier date before a separate cultural consciousn
14、ess develops in Taiwan and among a new generation of Taiwanese people. Such development would make Chinese reunification all the more difficult. In this respect, we can draw a few lessons from the case of Hong Kong. During the British colonial rule of Hong Kong, Hong Kong has developed a distinct cu
15、ltural consciousness from that in the mainland. This is not just due to differences in the political and economic systems. Hong Kong citizens were encouraged to think of themselves as Hong Kong people rather than as Chinese. After 1997, the Hong Kong government and Beijing have to exert much effort to correct this attitude. In other words, there is a limit to Beijings patience in dealing with a recalcitrant Taiwan. Eventually, the status quo cannot be preserved. Chinese re
