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1、统计学作业13章时间序列分析和预测13.1(1)年份小麦产量移动平均法预测误差预测误差平方指数平滑法预测误差预测误差平方19919595.3199210158.79595.3-563.4317419.561993106399764.32-874.68765065.102419949929.710131201.340521.6910026.72497.0249413.656576199510220.71 10242.4666721.76667473.78777789997.6168-223.08349766.11412199611056.9 10263.13333-793.767630065.5
2、21110064.54176-992.358984774.8765199712328.9 10402.43333-1926.473711273.81810362.24923-1966.653867715.243199810972.611202.16667229.566752700.8544410952.24446-20.3555414.34791119992000113889963.611452.811563.1666764.81599.5674199.042558613.52110958.3511211087.24579-429.6491123.646184598.15691262579.8
3、5420019387.310774.733331387.4331924971.25410750.152051362.8521857365.7122002902910246.31217.31481819.2910341.296441312.2961722121.93420038648.89459.966667811.1667657991.36119947.6075051298.8081686900.93520049195.29021.7-173.530102.259557.965253362.7653131598.62920059744.58957.666667-786.833619106.69
4、449449.135677-295.36487240.08309200610846.69196.166667-1650.432723930.1889537.744974-1308.861713101.479200710929.89928.766667-1001.031002067.7349930.401482-999.399998797.398200811246.410506.96667-739.433546761.654410230.22104-1016.181032619.684200911007.610535.074731065639.911980676.0453期移动平均法：2009
5、年小麦产量预测为(10846.6+10929.8+11246.4 ) /3=11007.6指数平滑法：预测产量为10535.07473小麦广量指数平滑预测移动平均预测14000120001000080006000400020008002700260025002400230022UO21002OOOM 份 、di年 Qaaw 48Qaw7Qaw6Qaw5Qaw49QWI3Qaw2yQW1oawy = 2562.2e0.1705x财政收入指数（财政U入）指数（财政U入）（2）移动平均法更好，预测误差平方和更小。13.2财政收入700006000050000400003000020000100008
6、002 7002 6002 5002 4UO2 3002 H2UO2 1002 A0O2 HS91 89Qy 79Qy 69Qy 59Qy 49Qy T 39Qy 2yQy 19Qy o利用公式得出2009年的财政收入为2562* ?.1705?19 =65384.6945913.3月份营业额移动平均预测12952283332243553005286F3206379,3217381r3408431F 348.66666679424,3971047341211470442.666666712481F 455.666666713449F 474.666666714544r 466.66666671
7、5601491.3333333165875 531.333333317644, 577.333333318660610.666666719. 630.3333333(1) 19个月的营业额预测为 630.3333333月份营业额指数平滑0.3预测误差误差平方指数平滑0.4预测误差误差平方指数平滑0.5预测误差误差平方12952283295-12144295-12144295-121443322291.430.6936.36290.231.81011.242893310894355300.5854.422961.5364302.9252.082712.3264305.549.52450.2552
8、86316.906-30.906955.180836323.752-37.7521425.213504330.25-44.251958.0636379307.634271.36585093.07741308.651270.34884948.953661308.12570.8755023.2667381329.0439451.956062699.432171336.7907244.209281954.460438343.562537.43751401.5668431344.63075886.3692427459.645964354.47443276.5255685856.162558362.28
9、12568.718754722.2679424370.541530653.45846942857.807951385.084659238.91534081514.40375396.64062527.35938748.535410473386.579071486.420928587468.576897400.650795572.349204485234.407389410.320312562.679693928.74311470412.5053557.494650013305.634779429.590477340.409522691632.929524441.660156328.3398480
10、3.146712481429.75374551.2462552626.178652445.754286435.245713611242.260328455.830078125.16992633.52513449445.12762153.87237850314.99531527459.8525718-10.8525718117.7783154468.4150391-19.415376.943714544446.28933597.710664959547.374045455.511543188.48845697830.207005458.707519585.292487274.8071560147
11、5.6025345125.397465515724.52435490.9069259110.093074112120.48497501.353759899.646249929.37316587513.221774273.778225835443.226606534.944155552.055844482709.810945551.176879935.823121283.29617644535.3552419108.644758111803.68346555.766493388.233506697785.151703569.088439974.911565611.74218660567.9486
12、69392.051330658473.447475591.05989668.940104014752.737942606.5442253.455782857.5219595.5640685618.6359376633.27211合计87514.682362992.5284350236.04“ =0.3 预测值为 595.5640685 ,误差平方为 354696.5597 a =0.4 预测值为 618.6359376 ,误差平方为 382710.4233 a =0.5预测值为633.27211 ,误差平方为 401033.6 比较各个误差平方和得到，a =0.5最好(3)营业额7006005004003002001000营业额线性（营业额） 线性预测营业额123456789 10 11 1213 14 1516 17 18月份月份预测营业额1261.6592283.5883305.5174327.4465349.3756371.3047393.2338415.1629437.09110459.0211480.94912502.8781
