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1、第十一讲：城市改革的进展和问题（中国经济专题教学影音资料第13讲上、下）O. Review1. The problems to be solvedA. IncentiveB. CoordinationC. Structure Imbalance2. The approachesA. Before 19781) Structure中央调整农轻重比例2) 协调-改变条、块管理，但一放就活，一活就乱3) 激励：学雷锋，但不能每人都成雷峰B. After 19781） 结构中央调整农轻重比例2） 协调-改变条、块管理，但一放就活，一活就乱3） 激励：强调物质利益3. The enterprise re
2、formApproach:I) Increasing autonomyA.Profit sharing and partial autonomy in production and marketing decision; enterprises were required to meet the quota obligations. (1979)Problem: quota evasion, managerial discretion, declining fiscal revenue.B.Separating Profit and tax. (1983)Problem: hard to de
3、fine costs due to weak auditing.C.Contract (1987)II) Defining property rightsA.Modern corporation system B. Stock-holding (1991)Evaluation:Incentive and efficiency increase but profitability and fiscal revenue decline.4. Resource Allocation System ReformA. Approach: Single Track to dual-track System
4、, to Single market trackEnterprise autonomy and the emergence of market track B. Procedures:Materials:1979-84, allowing outside quota production and marketing1984-, reducing compulsory quotaForeign exchange management: Expand regional autonomyReduce compulsory plan and replace it with indicative pla
5、nChange single-item trading company to multiple-item trading company Foreign exchange retentionForeign Exchange Swap Financial systema) 建立银行体系*Peoples bank was the sole bank before 1979*Agriculture Bank of China, 1979*Setting Bank of China branches, 1979*Bank of Industry and Commerce and Peoples ins
6、urance company, 1984 *Peoples Bank of Construction, 1985b) 存贷挂钩，c) 发展非银行金融机构d) 建立资本市场: Shanghai and ShenzhenShanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange, 1990 The financial system is still in the dual-track stage and until under the states firm control. 评估: 非国有部门的发展和产业结构的调整.5.Macro policy reformForm Dual tr
7、ack to market trackMaterial price: plan price, barter, dual price, market priceExchange rate: official rate, swap market rateInterest rate: Adjustment6. The logic of crossing the river by groping the stone.7. The achievements:i) Incentive and productivity1980-88State sectorOutput 8.5 TFP 2.4Non-stat
8、e sectorOutput 16.9TFP4.61953-78Output10.1TFP0.53 (-1.0)ii) InvestmentTable 6.6, page 188Within Budgets share, 1981-28.1%, 1994-3.2%.ii) Production and output structureTable 6.3, page 176.SOEs share 1978-77.6%, 1994-34.1%, comparative advantageTVE: employment-94-120.2 million (state-112.1 m) per cap
9、ita capital-1/4. Industrial output-78, 9.3; 94-42% export-87, 11%, 93-35% iii) Outward-trade dependent ratioTable 6.5, p. 1871978199419972001Export4.723.220.323Dependent9.945.436.121iv) Growth rate:GDP growth rate 1952-1977, 5.7% per annual.Page 4, table 1.1Rapid Economic Growth1980-90.1 1990-99Chin
10、a10.210.7Low Income4.32.4Middle Income2.83.5High Income3.22.4World3.12.5Source: World Development Report2000/1, pp. 294-5v) Income growth Rural population: 1978-2001, 7.3%;52-78, 2.38%. Urban population: 1978-2001, 6.4%; 52-78, ConsumptionRural: 1978-99, 6.7%;52-77-1.8%.Urban: 1978-99 6.4%;52-77-3.4
11、%全国：782001，7.11. The problems:i. 1997年以前,vigor/sterility cycle and recent deflationLiberalization leads to vigorInvestment rush and economic boomVigor leads to chaos, overheating, inflationCredit expansion, inflationChaos leads to retrenchmentAusterity programRetrenchment leads to sterilitySterility leads to liberalization1998年以后通货紧缩ii.Weak financial sector银行呆坏帐股市投机、做庄、泡沫iii. Corruptioniv. SOEs
