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1、摘 要随着中国在全球经济一体化进程中重要性不断凸显，中国国际贸易问题得到了越来越多的关注。尤其是随着市场化进程不断推进人民币汇率加快升值，汇率作为国家在贸易收支上的重要杠杆，对国际贸易的影响关系对中国推动“一带一路”的进程愈加重要。全面认识到人民币的价值变动在贸易上有利与不利的影响有助于中国贸易战略的调整和部分外贸产业的升级，对于外贸企业创造利润和规避风险也将会产生决定性的作用。从宏观层面有利于减少中国与“一带一路”相关国家可能产生的贸易摩擦，加快各方面贸易合作进程。现有的对于人民币升值的研究多以中国国家层面为主，但是由于中国中西部地区与东部沿海地区在贸易类型和规模上的区别导致了贸易模式的差异
2、化。以地理位置为特点的分布和中国独特经济发展模式使对省级贸易的研究更加富有现实意义。湖北省作为中部崛起的战略支点，一方面湖北省的外贸产业对中部西部地区的外贸特点具有很强的代表性；另一方面湖北省与东部沿海地区的不同贸易特点显现出明显的差异，有利于分析在逐渐进行的产业升级与产业转移中湖北省如何调节区域经济平衡。之前关于中国贸易受到人民币汇率影响的结论不一定完全适用于区域经济，就湖北省进行专门的研究是必要的。所以本文选取湖北省1996年至2015年的时间数据，利用汇率的变化程度与贸易流量的相关性分析，考察在人民币加快升值的趋势下，湖北省贸易流量表现出怎样的反应程度。从模型回归的结果和近年来湖北省各个
3、行业形式来看，短期内人民币贬值并不能有效改善进出口贸易水平，且进出口弹性之和小于一，不符合马歇尔勒纳条件。结论：人民币升值对湖北贸易的影响程度相比，经济总量具有更大且持续时间更长的影响力。根据汇率波动对省级经济在长期与短期内影响程度，得到具有针对性的区域特点并就外贸战略调整提出具体建议，加强湖北省企业在国际贸易中的竞争力和抗风险能力。帮助其在中国产业转移趋势和自身产业升级进程上提高效率，从相关国际贸易领域获得更大发展动力。 关键词：人民币升值；对外贸易；回归分析 Abstract With Chinas growing importance in the process of global e
4、conomic integration, Chinas international trade has been more and more attention, especially with the market process to promote the RMB exchange rate to accelerate the appreciation. Exchange rate is the national important lever on the trade balance, the impact on the international trade and China to
5、 promote the process of one belt one road is more important. Fully realize the value of the yuan change the adverse effects on trade advantage and help China trade strategy adjustment and part of the foreign trade industry upgrading, for foreign trade enterprises to create profits and avoid risk als
6、o will produce a decisive role. All the way from the macro level to reduce possible trade friction of China and all the countries related with one belt one road , accelerate the process of all aspects of trade cooperation. Existing in the research on the appreciation of the RMB is given priority wit
7、h Chinese national level. In order to Chinas central and western regions and eastern coastal areas in the difference on the type and size led to the trade pattern of differentiation. That feature location and the distribution of Chinas unique economic development model to make the study of trade at
8、the provincial level more rich practical significance.Hubei province as the fulcrum of the rise of central China, on the one hand, Hubei provinces foreign trade industry in the western regions foreign trade has a strong representative; On the other hand, with the characteristics of different trade i
9、n the eastern coastal areas in Hubei province showed obvious difference, is advantageous to the analysis of industrial upgrading and industrial transfer in gradually in Hubei province how to adjust the regional economic balance. Conclusions about Chinas trade under the influence of the RMB exchange
10、rate before may not completely suitable for the regional economic, it is necessary to carry out special research in Hubei province. So this paper selected time data of Hubei from 1996 to 2015, using correlation degree of the change of exchange rate and trade flow analysis, under the trend of faster
11、yuan appreciation, trade flow statement shows how the degree of reaction of Hubei province. From regression model and the result of the form, industries in Hubei province in recent years of depreciation in the short term is not effective to improve the level of import and export trade, and import an
12、d export of elasticity less than the standard, does not meet the Marshall-Lerner conditions. Come to a conclusion: the appreciation of the RMB to the influence degree of the Hubei trade, compared to economy is bigger and longer duration of influence. According to the exchange rate volatility on the
13、provincial economy in the long term and short term influence degree, get targeted regional characteristics and puts forward concrete Suggestions on foreign trade strategy adjustment, enhance enterprise competitiveness in the international trade in Hubei province and the ability to resist risks. Help
14、 the industrial transfer trend in China and its industrial upgrading process efficiency, from the international trade field to obtain a bigger development. Key words:RMB appreciation; foreign trade; regression analysis目 录引论1（一）选题背景及意义1（二）文献综述1（三）研究思路、方法及结构安排2（四）特点与不足2一.汇率变动与进出口贸易的理论基础3（一）马歇尔勒纳条件3（二）
15、J曲线效应理论3二.人民币汇率波动与湖北贸易发展历程4（一）东南亚金融危机至今的人民币汇率变化4（二）湖北省外贸出口发展历程4三.人民币升值对湖北省外贸产业影响实证分析5（一）理论模型的建立5（二）变量的说明与数据来源6（三）实证分析7（四）对模型的经济学分析8四. 对湖北省外贸进一步分析9（一）外贸行业分析9（二）地区对比分析9（三）国际贸易环境分析10五.结论10主要参考文献12 引论（一）选题背景及意义 随着中国在世界国际贸易活动中占据着越来越重要的地位和汇率市场开放的进一步推进，汇率变动对中国外贸发展产生的影响日渐深远。但是对汇率的调整是否能改善国内贸易收支还是一个未知数，日本1971年至1980持续的日元升值并未对其贸易平衡产生冲击。当然也不能认为汇率对贸易没有影响。由于国内外贸和吸引外商直接投资的地域差异，长期的人民币升值趋势对外贸会产生的影响会因地区的差异有所区别，换句话说，经济发展和物价水平的因素使得人民币升值的幅度在不同地区有较大差异，中西部的实际的通货膨胀率要高于东部沿海地区，一定程度上冲抵了外贸快速增长的积极影响。所以就中国省级层面上外贸发展的影响进行研究就变得十分重要，对明确汇率对贸易作用力的程度和准确掌握湖北外贸结构，探析如何调节湖北省贸易收支改善贸易顺差现状提供方法与途径，对制定特定地区经济政策有一定的参考意义。（二）文献综述长久以来，在国际贸
