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1、Whatt maakess yoour stoock priice go up andd doownKEVIIN PP. CCOYNNE AAND JONNATHHAN W. WITTTERR The McKKinssey Quaarteerlyy, 220022 Nuumbeer 22 CEOss allwayys wwantt too knnow howw thhe mmarkket willl rreacct tto nnew strrateegiees aand othher majjor deccisiionss. WWilll a commpannyss shhareehollde
2、rrs aagreee wwithh a parrticculaar mmovee, oor wwilll thhey faiil tto uundeersttandd thhe mmotiivess beehinnd iit aand punnishh thhe sstocck aaccoordiinglly? Andd whhat cann maanaggemeent do to impprovve tthe outtcomme?Tryiing to preedicct sstocck ppricce mmoveemennts is neccesssaryy, oof ccourrse.
3、Affterr alll, wheen sstocck ppricces falll, thee coost of borrrowwingg annd oof iissuuingg neew eequiity cann riise, annd ffalllingg sttockk prricees ccan botth uundeercuut tthe connfiddencce oof eemplloyeees andd cuustoomerrs aand hanndiccap merrgerrs. Unfforttunaatelly, howweveer, mosst oof tthess
4、e ppreddicttionns aare no morre tthann rooughh guuessses, beecauuse thee tooolss CEEOs usee too maake theem aare nott veery acccuraate. Neet ppressentt vaaluee (NNPV) maay bbe uusefful forr esstimmatiing thee loong-terrm iintrrinssic vallue of shaaress, bbut it is fammoussly unrreliiablle ffor preed
5、icctinng ttheiir ppricce ooverr thhe nnextt feew qquarrterrs. Connverrsattionns wwithh saamplle ggrouups of invvesttorss annd aanallystts, connducctedd byy thhe ccomppanyy orr byy innvesstmeent bannkerrs, aree noo moore relliabble forr gaaugiing marrkett reeacttionns.But exeecuttivees ccan draamatti
6、caallyy immproove thee acccurracyy off thheirr prrediictiionss. BBy aadopptinng aa moore sysstemmatiic, riggoroous appproaach, coorpooratte lleadderss caan llearrn tto uundeersttandd inndivviduual invvesttorss ass thhorooughhly as manny ccomppaniies noww unnderrstaand eacch oof ttheiir ttop commmerr
7、ciaal ccusttomeers. Itt iss poossiiblee too knnow succh ccusttomeers welll bbecaausee thheree arre oonlyy soo maany of theem. Equuallly, onlly aa fiinitte nnumbber of invvesttorss reeallly mmattter wheen iit ccomees tto ppreddicttingg sttockk prricee moovemmentts.Everry CCEO knoows thaat wwhenn buuy
8、errs aare morre aanxiiouss too buuy tthann seelleers aree too seell, shharee prricees rriseeannd tthatt thhey falll wwhenn thhe rreveersee haappeens. Buut ffeweer CCEOss knnow thaat nnot eveery buyyer or selllerr maatteers in thiis eequaatioon. Ourr reeseaarchh onn thhe cchannginng sstocck ppricces
9、of morre tthann 500 laargee USS annd EEuroopeaan llistted commpanniess ovver twoo yeearss1 maakess itt cllearr thhat a mmaxiimumm off onnly 1000 cuurreent andd pootenntiaal iinveestoors siggnifficaantlly iinflluennce thee shharee prricees oof mmostt laargee coompaaniees. By ideentiifyiing theese cri
10、iticcal inddiviiduaal iinveestoors andd unnderrstaandiing whaat mmotiivattes theem, exeecuttivees ccan preedicct hhow theey wwilll reeactt too annnouunceemenntsandd moore acccuraatelly eestiimatte tthe dirrecttionn off sttockk prricees.Armeed wwithh thhesee neew aand sollid inssighhts aboout howw cr
11、ritiicall innvesstorrs bbehaave in speeciffic sittuattionns, exeecuttivees ccan makke sstraateggic deccisiionss inn a diffferrentt liightt. KKnowwingg whhat makkes cruuciaal iinveestoors buyy, sselll, oor hholdd thhe ccomppanyys stoock alllowss CEEOs to callcullatee whhat itss shharee prricee miight
12、t bee affterr ann annnouunceemennt aand to facctorr thhis callcullatiion intto ttheiir sstraateggic andd opperaatinng ddeciisioons. Too heead offf shhortt-teerm selllinng, a ccomppanyy coouldd maanagge tthe timmingg, ppacee, oor ssequuenccingg off sttrattegiic aannoounccemeentss. IIt ccoulld iintrro
13、duuce a nnew mannageemennt tteamm beeforre aannoounccingg ann accquiisittionn. IIt ccoulld aalsoo teest an impporttantt neew pprodductt inn seelecctedd maarkeets befforee thhe nnatiionwwidee roolloout. Hoow wwilll innvesstorrs rreacct tto aa meergeer aannoounccemeent andd whhat willl tthe ressulttin
14、gg shharee prricee meean forr a deaal? Howw miightt a spiin-ooff farre iin tthe marrkett? DDoess thhe ccomppanyy neeed to preeparre tthe marrkett orr too coonsiiderr a carrve-outt innsteead?A CEEO eevenn haas tthe chooicee off foorgiing aheead in thee faace of advversse ppreddicttionns, usiing thee
15、innforrmattionn too maanagge tthe exppecttatiionss off thhe bboarrd. An exeecuttivee maay, forr innstaancee, cconssideer bboldd sttrattegiies eveen tthouugh theey ccoulld ppushh soome criiticcal invvesttorss too seell thee coompaanys sstocck.THE FEWW THHAT MATTTERRIt sshouuld comme aas nno ssurpprisse tthatt biig ttraddes cann siigniificcanttly movve tthe neeedlee onn a commpannyss sttockk prricee. WWhenn thhe BBasss faamilly oof TTexaas, forr exxampple, soold itss sttakee inn Diisneey, in Sepptemmberr 20001, inn reespoonsee too a marrginn caa
