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1、摘 要自从2005年7月汇改以来，人民币对美元累计升值超过20%，而中国对美国的贸易顺差从2005年末的2015.4亿美元拉升至2012年末的2311亿美元，同比上升48.1%亿美元。业内人士提出人民币与美元的汇率提升可以促进两国贸易的增长幅度，还有一部分专家提出人民币和美元的汇率事实上升1%，就会减少两国贸易的12.084%，甚至还有人士提出人民币出现的不断升值情况和两国贸易的促进无任何利害关系。我国拥有丰富的人力资源，而这些人员也积极参与到了贸易合作中，通过进一步提升对外贸易的份额，可以实现对外贸易资金的巨额盈余。我国的外汇储备主要使用对象是美国，美国也成为我国加入世贸组织以来最大的合作伙
2、伴，我国为美国加大资金提供力度，国家之间形成一种不太和谐的平衡状态。国际垂直分工导致生产工序在国际间的转移，由于各国在比较优势、规模经济和交易成本等禀赋上的不一致性,，就导致了贸易不平衡的产生。中美存在的巨额贸易顺差导致中美之间贸易不断产生摩擦，尤其是在美国爆发金融危机以后，美国仅仅抓住人民币升值问题不放，为改善美中之间的贸易状况，多次要求人民币升值。本文从中美这一焦点性问题出发，基于垂直专业化分工的视角，采取文献研究、现场访谈、实证分析、规范分析等方法分析人民币升值对中国对美国贸易差额的影响。本文试图从中美贸易失衡的现状入手，从政治、经济等不同的角度分析垂直专业化分工视角下中美贸易差额的现状
3、和影响，阐述垂直分工造成中美贸易差额的原因，并在此基础上，基于人民币汇率的波动对中美贸易差额影响用理论和实证的相结合的形式进行深层次的分析，并对实证结果进行统计学的检验，从统计学的角度验证本研究的结论是否正确，是否符合当前中美贸易差额的现状，是否具有统计学的意义。贸易顺差不一定就好，贸易逆差也不一定就有害无利。根据本文研究得出的结论，在全球化的背景之下，立足于我国国情，提出缩小中美贸易差额的政策性建议。关键词：垂直化分工；人民币升值；中美贸易；差额；1. 论文中数字都应该小写，你一会儿大写一会儿小写；2. 垂直专业化分工不等于垂直分工，行文需要注意；3. 论文还是和上次问题一样，没有很好的将垂
4、直专业化、人民币升值与中美贸易差额三者关系理顺，比开题报告要好一些，但是还是写的太散，基本 都是贸易与汇率的关系；4. 文献综述还是观点罗列，没有很好的融合吸收，分类表述，并针对前人研究展开针对性评述；5. 论文理论基础相对薄弱，相关理论只涉及到古典汇率与贸易理论，对于垂直专业化、汇率影响贸易的新理论基本上没有涉及到；6. 实证分析中原来方程没有VSI指标的，后面分析过程中却有，分析过程简单，主要统计量及其统计意义没有详细说明，需要找个计量很强的人帮你看看进行修正；7. 垂直专业化分工下中美两国贸易结构状况，中间品和最终产品分布状况，你所计算的VSI指标似乎不会这么简单，需要很多数据的，很多都
5、需要投入产出才能计算出出来，建议你看看VSS指标计算，再利用你所计算的指标与汇率及贸易等构建回归模型。10AbstractSince the July 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB against the U.S. dollar has appreciated more than 20%, while Chinas trade surplus against the United States by the end of 2005 rose to $ 201.54 billion by the end of 2012 of $ 231.1 billion
6、, compared with last year expanded 48.1%. Billion. Some scholars believe that the RMB against the U.S. dollar on narrowing the Sino-US trade imbalance has an obvious role, some scholars believe that the real appreciation of RMB against the U.S. dollar 1% would reduce the 12.084% of Sino-US trade sur
7、plus, as well as scholars believe that the appreciation of the renminbi and the Sino-US trade no direct relationship between the imbalance. Chinese cheap labor resource endowments through participation in the international division of labor, the implementation of policies to expand export-oriented f
8、oreign trade, resulting in a huge trade interests and accumulated a huge trade surpluses. These foreign exchange reserves to lend the United States. Providing for the Chinese market and the United States as a source of trade surplus countries, China for the United States to provide funds to an imbal
9、ance between the formation of the equilibrium. International vertical division lead to the production process in the international transfer, as countries in comparative advantage, economies of scale and transaction costs such as endowments inconsistency, the trade imbalance has led to the generation
10、. Sino-US trade surplus led to the huge presence of growing trade friction between China and the U.S., particularly in the United States after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the United States only to seize and hold RMB appreciation, in order to improve trade between the U.S. situation, repeat
11、edly asked yuan appreciation. In this paper, the focus of Sino-US problem departure, based on vertical specialization perspective, to take literature research, field interviews, empirical analysis, normative analysis methods such as analysis of RMB appreciation on Chinas impact on the U.S. trade bal
12、ance. This paper attempts to present situation of Sino-US trade imbalance, from a political and economic point of view different from the Perspective of Vertical Specialization status of Sino-US trade balance and impact of vertical specialization explain the reasons causing Sino-US trade balance, an
13、d on this basis , based on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations impact on Sino-US trade balance with a combination of theoretical and empirical form of deep analysis, and empirical results of statistical tests, from a statistical point of validation of the studys conclusions are correct, compliance wi
14、th the current status of Sino-US trade balance, whether statistically significant. Trade surplus is not necessarily enough, the trade deficit is not necessarily detrimental. According to this study concluded that, in the context of globalization, based on Chinas national conditions, China-US trade b
15、alance for reducing policy recommendations.Keywords: vertical division of labor; RMB appreciation; Sino-US trade; difference;垂直专业化分工视角下人民币升值对中国对美国贸易差额的影响研究目录1 导论11.1研究的背景11.2研究的目的和意义21.3研究的内容、方法与思路21.4可能的创新点32文献综述52.1国内外研究现状52.2相关理论62.3小结73垂直专业化分工视角下中美贸易差额的现状及其原因93.1垂直分工视角下中美贸易差额的现状93.2垂直分工视角下中美贸易差额的原因93.3非垂直分工造成中美巨额贸易差额的原因94垂直专业化分工视角下人民币汇率波动对中美贸易差额影响的理论和实证研究114.1垂直分工下中美产业内贸易的数学模型114.2 垂直分工下人民币汇率波动对中美产业内贸易影响实证检验115结论与政策建议125.1研究结论125.2减小中美贸易差额的政策建议12参考文献13致谢15垂直专业化分工视角下人民币升值对中国对美国贸易差额的影响研究1导论1.1研究的背景对于一国而言，贸易不平衡问题是其在全球化条件下的贸易政策、产业定位和分工差异、经济主体跨期选择以及国际货币体系和汇率波动等诸多因素的作用下形成的，是实体经济和货币经济综合作用的结果，所以货
