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1、1 For the past ten years I have devoted my entiretime and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject.在过去的10年中，我把自己所有的时间和精力都投入了投
2、机市场。像大多数人一样，我损 失了很多钱，也经历了缺乏准备就入市的新手难免遇到的起落。2 I soon began to realize that all successful men,whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attemptingto make any money out of it.后来我意识到，所有的成功人士，无论是律师，医生还是科学
3、家，在试图从从事的行业获 利之前总会投入多年来学习和研究要进入的行业。3 Being in the Brokerage business myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldomafforded the ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others.I found that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the mar
4、ket without knowledge or study usually lose in the end.做为一个处理大量客户账户的经纪人，我有常人难得的机会来研究他人投机活动的成败原 因。我发现，在缺乏对市场的理解时就入市的交易者中有90%以上都以失败告终。1到3段是一个引子，强调入市需要对市场的理解，是为了引出下文的波动法则，波动法则 就是江恩认为的入市之前需要的对市场的了解。入市之前确实必须现有准备，否则必败无疑（几率90%以 上）。4 I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in sto
5、cks and commodities. This led meto conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten years ofmy life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energiestoward making speculation a profitable profession. After exh
6、austive researches and investigations of the knownsciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at whichstocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time.很快我注意到了股票和商品期货涨跌的周期性再现。这让我得出自然法则是市场运动的准 则的结论。我决定用10年时间去学习适用于投机市场的自然法则，并尽我最大的努力
7、使投机成为一个有利可图的职业。在对现有科学进行彻底的研究后，我发现波动法则能使我精确的确定在一段给定时间内股票或商品期 货应该涨跌的点数。江恩只是说波动法则能让他精确的确定在一段给定时间内股票或商品期货应该涨跌的点数。 这其实也是江恩认为波动法则是入市之前需要的对市场的了解的原因了。这和传说中的何时 何价还是不同的，江恩追求的是结果的正确性，而不会考虑过程，而何时何价则追求过程。5 The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is awareof
8、either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.在华尔街还未有任何概念时，该法则就可以通过确定原因并预测到结果。绝对多数投机者可 以证实，正是只关注结果而忽略原因导致导致了他们的损失。这段话放在这里初看起来比较突兀，其实不然。按照常理这里应该对波动法则的含义进行一 些描述，而这里确实波动法则的思维方式：通过确定原因从而来预测结果。这是下文的主线，下文首先会描述原因和结果分别
9、是什么， 然后论述二者关系，最后是使用数学来描述二者关系。4到5段接上文引子提出了波动法则这个概念，并指出波动法则能精确的确定在一段给定时 间内股票或商品期货应该涨跌的点数。6 It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the laymanmay be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the
10、fundamental law upon which wirelesstelegraphy, wireless telephone and phono graphs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible.在此我不会给出我在市场中应用的波动法则的完整概念。但当我说波动法则是无线电报，无 线电话和留声机的基础原理时，信徒们还是能够得到它的一些轮廓。没有该法则的存在，上述发明将是不可能的。该段描述了波动法则的含义。虽说没有明说，但从江恩举的例子的类比中可
11、以得出一个大致 的轮廓。无线电报，无线电话都是使用无线电波来承载数据的，而无线电波和周期性循环电流之间有明确的数学关系可以 相互转换，有什么样的电流就会有什么样的无线电波，有这个原理，虽然形态不同了，但数据依然可以无损的传输。江 恩用这样的例子来类比股市就是再说股票的运动比如价格，成交量，运动方向之类的，就像无线电波一样只是表象，制造 该表象的另有原因，而该原因和表象之间是有明确的数学关系可以转换的。由此可以推断波动法则是一种以数学方式来描 述投机市场表面波动和内在原因关系的理论。7 In order to test the efficiency of my idea I have not o
12、nly put in years of labour in the regular way, but I spent ninemonths working night and day in the Astor Library in New York and in the British Museum of London, going over therecords of stock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, DanielDrew,C
13、ommodore Vanderbilt & all other important manipulators from that time to the present day. I have examinedevery quotation of Union Pacific prior to& from the time of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harrimans was the most masterly. Thefigures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly i
14、n accordance with natural law.为了验证我的想法的正确性，几年来除了正常工作，我还花了 9个月在纽约的Astor图书 馆和伦敦的大英博物馆中夜以继日的学习和查阅从1820年以来的股票交易记录。我顺便研究了Jay Gould，DanielDrew,Commodore Vanderbilt和其他从那时以所有的大炒家。我研究了 Union Pacific公司在E. H. Harriman掌控前后的每 个行情。Harriman先生是最好的控制者。数据显示，Harriman先生总是严格按照自然法则来工作，不管是有意或无意的。这里的想法应该就是上文所说的自然法则是市场运动的准则
15、的结论。8 In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certainlaws govern the changes and variationsin the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which isat the back of all these movements. Observation has shown tha
16、t there are regular periods of intense activity onthe Exchange followed by periods of inactivity.纵观市场的历史和大量的相关统计，某种法则控制着股票价格的变化和波动，并且在这些 运动的背后存在周期性的法则的事实就会很明显俩。观察显示在沉寂期后总是伴随着规则的活跃期。9 Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space toCycles of Prosperity and Depression, which he found recurringat regular intervals of time. The law(law of vibration) which
